What is the impact of civil society on rebel governance? The field of rebel governance has gained increased attention recently, but few researchers highlight the interactive relationship between rebels and local communities. As the principal organisational tool for civilian populations, civil society has been largely overlooked. In this thesis I present a theoretical argument that rebels are likely to cooperate with civil society in establishing governance institutions. Civil society will utilise its expertise, legitimacy, and mobilisation capacity to pressure the rebels to commit to governance, as well as to aid them in this effort. I test this theory by conducting a quantitative study using zero-inflated negative binomial models with data from VDEM and RQSI, with 4800 observations of conflict-years between 1946 and 2012. I find that civil society has a positive relationship with the scope of rebel governance, but only if initial institutions are present. When none are present, civil society decreases the likelihood of new institutions being established. It has become increasingly clear that local civilian actors have agency and can significantly affect the decisions made by rebels. Understanding the effect of civil society helps us to deeper understand this dynamic and helps explain why and how rebels decide to govern.

This thesis examines the multifaceted and interdisciplinary means through which the “rebel” trope is used as a groundwork for complex characterization in Laurence O’Keefe and Kevin Murphy’s Heathers the Musical (2018). Using Jamie Muscato’s performance as Jason Dean (“JD”) as an exemplar, I employ a three-stage analytic process through which nuanced, embodied subjectivity is realized, and the performer is highlighted as a vector for intersectional interpretation. The first stage examines the narrative impacts of the text and music written for JD and explores how they serve to individualize him. The second considers the musical mechanics and rock informed stylization of the character using an analytic model for embodied subjectivity, which I extend to account for theatrical elements of performance. The third considers the analytic findings of the first two chapters through an intersectional lens, highlighting the musical and theatrical interpretation of the text posited by the performer as being the main vehicle through which the “rebel” trope is expanded upon.

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Uppsatsen är ett försök att applicera kulturvetenskaplig teori på en kontemporär subkultur. På så sätt kan den avkodas och dess kopplingar till samhällstendenser kan belysas. Tesen är att hipsterismen innehåller element som utmanar sättet vi vanligtvis tolkar och förstår ungdomskulturer på. Vidare visar forskningen att hipsterismen är ett resultat av nästan 40 år av nyliberal kapitalistisk utveckling, kombinerat med gentrifiering, konsumtionsvanor, kulturellt kapital och subkultur. / This essay is an attempt to apply the theories from the cultural studies tradition on a contemporary subculture, decoding and reviewing the societal implications of the cultural phenomenon that is the hipster. The thesis is that hipsterism contains elements that challenges the way we usually view and understand youth culture. The thesis argues that hipsterism is a result of 40 years of neo-liberal capitalistic progress, combining elements of gentrification, consumption, cultural capital and subculture.

Whilst the academic discipline analysing violence against civilians from a strategic perspective has seen significant growth over the last decades, a key issue has been neglected: the goals of the perpetrating actors. This thesis aims to narrow this research gap through answering the question: How do the conflict aims of rebel groups impact levels of violence against civilians? To do so, a theoretical framework is built, based on a categorisation of rebel conflict aims through combining a multitude of academic fields, which is then analysed through a large-N quantitative method. This study analyses an extensive 30-year world-wide dataset on the aims of rebel groups and rebel violence against civilians, and finds that different aims have significant effects on both civilian casualties and mass violence. Whilst some results support the hypothesised theories, others are indicative of contradictory relationships, further indicating the necessity of continued and expanded research into the conflict aims of rebel groups.

Just like rebel groups attract and recruit individuals, these organisations also experiencedisengagement. This study explores causes of rebel disengagement and examines why rebelgroups see increased levels of disengagement. Based on theoretical arguments derived fromliterature on rebel group structure and dynamics, and disengagement. The theoreticalframework is based on different types of rebels, and I suggest two causal mechanisms to fiteither economically opportunistic or ideologically driven rebels. I hypothesise that militarysetbacks for rebel groups lead to increased levels of disengagement. Military setbacks anddisengagement are measured on the group level while the causal mechanisms are considered onthe individual level. The case selection follows an exploratory most-similar design to scrutinisethe degree in which disengagement varies. Using a structured focused comparison, thehypothesis is tested on three cases, JAS during 2016 and 2021 in Nigeria and al-Shabaab during2023 in Somalia. The source material consists of news and NGO reports, academic sources, andsemi-structured expert interviews. The findings support a relationship between militarysetbacks and disengagement, but that further nuance is required to explain the degree to whichdisengagement occurs.

Many of the most destructive natural disasters have taken place in situations characterized by armed conflict and insecurity: the Indian Ocean tsunami in Sri Lanka and Indonesia in 2004, the floods in Pakistan in 2011, the drought in Somalia in 2011 and typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013. Surprisingly little research has systematically explored how armed conflict affects natural disaster management, and how shocks from natural disaster influence conflict dynamics. This dissertation addresses these gaps by providing a qualitative and disaggregated analysis of the micro-dynamics underpinning the relationship between armed conflict, natural disasters and cooperation. It asks: what is the relationship between natural disasters and processes of conflict and cooperation in countries affected by civil conflict? To explore this question, the dissertation offers four essays that explore different facets of this relationship, focusing on the rebel group. Examining collaboration between rebel group and humanitarian actors during disaster relief efforts in the Philippines, essay I finds that rebel group behavior after a natural disaster is shaped by the level of hostility between combatant parties and the nature of the ties with the local population. Exploring the effect of natural disasters on conflict dynamics in the case of the Philippines, essay II suggests that natural disasters hinder rebel group recruitment tactics, by increasing hardship for rebel combatants and supporters, by weakening the rebel group’s organizational structure and supply lines, and by leading to a loss of territorial control. Based on a comparative case study between Colombia and the Philippines, essay III revisits ripeness theory and argues that the level of rebel group cohesion will help to predict whether or not rebel groups stay at the negotiation table until an agreement is reached. While a typhoon affected the Philippines during the negotiations, it did not “ripen” the peace talks. Finally, article IV explores pre-disaster evacuation across conflict-affected regions in the Philippines and India, and argues that both experience of previous disaster and the level of trust in government officials influence the likelihood of people evacuating. The dissertation has important implications for both disaster management and conflict resolution, and it calls for more dialogue between both disciplines.

Existe-t-il un lien entre le degré de publicité du soutien fourni par des États à des groupes rebelles et les relations entre les insurgés soutenus et les civils durant les guerres internes ? Les études sur les conflits examinent de plus en plus la manière dont un soutien étatique externe à des insurgés locaux façonne le comportement de ces derniers. Cependant, la littérature néglige l’influence de la décision des États-soutiens de nier ou reconnaître leur aide sur la conduite des rebelles. Divisée en trois parties, ma thèse de doctorat utilise une méthodologie mixte alliant analyses quantitatives et études de cas qualitatives pour combler cette lacune dans la littérature. L’Article 1 présente de nouvelles données sur le degré de publicité du soutien étatique aux rebelles durant les guerres civiles entre 1989 et 2018. Il montre ensuite que cette variable est négativement corrélée à la propension des insurgés à user de la violence envers les non-combattants. L’Article 2 commence par présenter une théorie expliquant comment, pourquoi et dans quelles circonstances les États-soutiens tentent-ils de superviser les interactions avec les non-combattants des insurgés qu’ils appuient lors des guerres civiles. Il applique ensuite ce cadre théorique au soutien des États-Unis aux Unités de protection du peuple (YPG) et aux Forces démocratiques syriennes (FDS) dans le nord-est de la Syrie entre 2014 et 2020. L’Article 3 montre qu’en plus d’être corrélé négativement à la violence rebelle envers les civils, le degré de publicité du soutien étatique aux insurgés est corrélé positivement à la propension de ces derniers à fournir des services à la population. Il nuance ensuite les résultats statistiques en montrant que l’existence d’institutions formelles de fourniture de services n’équivaut pas nécessairement à une participation effective des civils à l’exercice du pouvoir en zones rebelles. Ainsi, la thèse met en évidence le lien critique entre le degré de publicité du soutien étatique aux rebelles et les interactions entre insurgés soutenus et civils. Les résultats de recherche montrent dès lors que les expériences des non-combattants au cours de conflits qualifiés d’internes à un espace sont corrélés à des facteurs et intérêts liés à des acteurs externes à ce même territoire. / What is the relationship between the overtness of state support to rebels and the nature of insurgent-civilian interactions during civil wars? Conflict studies increasingly examine how external support to local insurgents influences rebel behavior. However, the literature neglects the link between the state sponsors’ decisions to acknowledge or deny their support and insurgent behavior. My three-part doctoral dissertation uses a mixed-methods research design combining quantitative analyses and qualitative case studies to address this gap in the literature. Article 1 introduces new data on the overtness of external support to rebels during civil wars between 1989 and 2018. The paper then shows that this variable negatively correlates with the propensity of the insurgents to target civilians. Article 2 begins by outlining a theory of how, why, and when the state sponsors monitor the interactions with civilians of the insurgents they support. The paper then applies this theoretical framework to the United States’ (US) support for the People’s Defense Units (YPG) and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northeast Syria between 2014 and 2020. Article 3 shows that in addition to negatively correlating with civilian targeting, the overtness of external support to rebels positively correlates with the propensity of the insurgents to provide social services during civil wars. The paper then qualifies the statistical results by showing that the creation of formal social service institutions by the rebels does not necessarily lead to effective civilian participation in decision-making in insurgent areas. The dissertation thus highlights the critical link between the overtness of state support to rebels and the insurgent-civilian interactions. In this way, I show that civilian experiences during conflicts we characterize as internal to a territory correlate with factors and interests linked to external actors.

The transitioning of armed actors into political parties following a peace accord is not a new phenomenon and the debate for how we can facilitate such a transition is well explored. A grey area of the debate, however, concerns transitioned actors’ long-term commitment to peace, as relapses are known to have occurred on many occasions. How are successful transitions sustained and what are the facilitating mechanisms? Through a case study of Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland, this thesis aims to contribute to the very limited debate on the facilitation of peace continuity of transitioned actors. Interviews were conducted in Belfast during the fall of 2018. The present-time contextual changes posed by the United Kingdom exiting the European union, which endangers the 1998 peace agreement that helped facilitate Sinn Féin’s transition, provides a good case for studying the institutional resilience to violent relapse of a transitioned actor. The findings show that Sinn Féin display strong levels of institutional resilience, which can help the institution to abstain from relapses into violence caused by contextual changes such as Brexit.