Ce travail porte sur l'estimation des incertitudes et la prévision de risques en qualité de l'air. Il consiste dans un premier temps à construire un ensemble de simulations de la qualité de l'air qui prend en compte toutes les incertitudes liées à la modélisation de la qualité de l'air. Des ensembles de simulations photochimiques à l'échelle continentale ou régionale sont générés automatiquement. Ensuite, les ensembles générés sont calibrés par une méthode d'optimisation combinatoire qui sélectionne un sous-ensemble représentatif de l'incertitude ou performant (fiabilité et résolution) pour des prévisions probabilistes. Ainsi, il est possible d'estimer et de prévoir des champs d'incertitude sur les concentrations d'ozone ou de dioxyde d'azote, ou encore d'améliorer la fiabilité des prévisions de dépassement de seuil. Cette approche est ensuite comparée avec la calibration d'un ensemble Monte Carlo. Ce dernier, moins dispersé, est moins représentatif de l'incertitude. Enfin, on a pu estimer la part des erreurs de mesure, de représentativité et de modélisation de la qualité de l'air / This work is about uncertainty estimation and risk prediction in air quality. Firstly, we need to build an ensemble of air quality simulations which can take into account all uncertainty sources related to air quality modeling. Ensembles of photochemical simulations at continental and regional scales are automatically built. Then, these generated ensemble are calibrated with a combinatorial optimization method. It selects a sub-ensemble which is representative of uncertainty or has good resolution and reliability of probabilistic forecasts. Thus, this work show that it is possible to estimate and forecast uncertainty fields related to ozone and nitrogen dioxide concentrations or to improve reliability related to the threshold exceedance prediction. This approach is compared with Monte Carlo ensemble calibration. This ensemble is less representative of uncertainty. Finally, we can estimate the part of the measure error, representativity error and modeling error in air quality

Le futur site de stockage géologique des déchets MAVL français intègre, dans sa conception, des éléments de structure en béton armé (alvéole et conteneurs). Prédire leur durabilité à l'échelle de la phase d'exploitation (environ 100 ans) est décisif. En conditions de service, le système de ventilation assurerait un approvisionnement constant de CO2, soumettant le béton à des phénomènes de séchage et de carbonatation. L'effet de la température (dû à l'exothermie des déchets) et du séchage sur la carbonatation a été évalué par le passé. Les données acquises à ce jour se doivent cependant d'être complétées. Dans ce sens, la prise en compte des transferts hydriques simultanés à la carbonatation est indispensable. D'une part, car la carbonatation est une pathologie courante du béton armé qui mène, à terme, à une corrosion généralisée des armatures. D'autre part, car la durabilité des structures en béton armé est conditionnée par l'évolution de leur état hydrique tout au long de leur période de service. L'évaluation des propriétés de transport d'eau dans les matériaux carbonatés, en milieu insaturé, constitue un enjeu important pour l'Andra chargée de la gestion des déchets radioactifs.Des essais de carbonatation accélérée sont conduits sur quatre pâtes de ciment durci (CEM I, CEM III/A, CEM V/A et un mélange Bas-pH) à une teneur en CO2 de 3%. Les propriétés hydriques des matériaux carbonatés sont évaluées à partir d'une approche simplifiée nécessitant la connaissance de 3 paramètres physiques accessibles par l'expérience : (i) porosité, (ii) isotherme de désorption de la vapeur d'eau et (iii) perméabilité.Les résultats mettent en évidence des modifications minéralogiques et microstructurales majeures engendrées par la carbonatation : décomposition des hydrates et précipitation de carbonate de calcium (CaCO3) selon différents polymorphes. La décalcification forte des C S H et la polymérisation des chaines silicatées, menant à la formation d'un gel de silice enrichi en calcium, sont constatées. La conséquence directe est l'apparition d'un retrait de carbonatation, lui-même à l'origine d'un phénomène de microfissuration. D'autre part, une réduction du volume poreux et de la surface spécifique des matériaux sont observées. Les carbonates formés obturent les pores, réduisant ainsi la porosité totale. Dans ce sens, plus la teneur initiale en portlandite est élevée, plus la quantité de CaCO3 formée est importante et, par conséquent, plus la chute de porosité résultante est marquée. La structure d'un matériau carbonaté n'a alors plus rien à voir avec son état initial. Ces changements se traduisent par une baisse significative de la teneur en eau à l'équilibre et un changement de morphologie des isothermes, en lien direct avec les évolutions microstructurales. Une baisse de la perméabilité est obtenue dans le cas du ciment Portland (CEM I), en raison du large colmatage de la porosité. Par contre, elle augmente dans le cas des ciments avec ajouts (CEM III/A, CEM V/A et Bas-pH), fait directement imputé à l'effet de la microfissuration, qui prédomine devant la chute de porosité. Le cortège minéralogique initial (teneurs en portlandite et C-S-H) joue donc un rôle déterminant vis-à-vis du comportent des matériaux cimentaires face à la carbonatation. La représentativité de la carbonatation accélérée vis-à-vis de la carbonatation naturelle a, par ailleurs, été vérifiée. Le jeu de données récolté au cours de ces travaux peut être étendu et, appliqué avec confiance, en condition de carbonatation réelle / The French design of deep geological repository involves the use of cement-based materials (vault cell and containers). The durability assessment over the operational phase (supply 100 years) is decisive. In operating conditions, a ventilation system would maintain the CO2 partial pressure within the disposal, subjecting concrete to drying and carbonation. The temperature (due to the waste thermal output) and drying effects on carbonation have been studied in the past. The data acquired must however be complemented. In this sense, taking into account the water transfers simultaneously to carbonation is essential. On the one hand, because carbonation is a common pathology of reinforced concrete that leads to rebar corrosion. On the other hand, because the durability of reinforced concrete structures is dependent on their water content evolution all along their service life. The assessment of water transport properties in carbonated materials, under unsaturated conditions, is an important issue for Andra in charge of the management of radioactive waste in France.Accelerated carbonation test are performed on four hardened cement pastes (CEM I, CEM III/A, CEM V/A and a Low-pH mix) at 3% CO2 content. The water transport properties of carbonated materials are evaluated using a simplified approach, requiring the knowledge of 3 physical parameters, accessible through experimental way: (i) porosity, (ii) water vapour desorption isotherm and (iii) permeability.The results highlight mineralogical and microstructural changes induced by carbonation: hydrates decomposition and calcium carbonate precipitation (CaCO3) according to various polymorphs. The high decalcification of C-S-H and the polymerisation of silicates chains, leading to the formation of a calcium-enriched silica gel, are found. This results in carbonation shrinkage, responsible of microcracking. On the other hand, the reduction of porosity and specific surface area are observed. The formed carbonates fill the pores, reducing the total porosity. In this sense, the higher the initial portlandite content, the higher the amount of CaCO3 and, consequently, the more the porosity decrease. The structure of the carbonated materials is totally different from the initial state. These changes result into a significant reduction of the water content at the equilibrium and a modification of the isotherms morphology, directly related to the microstructure evolutions. The permeability is found to decrease in the case of Portland cement (CEM I), due to porosity clogging. By contrast, it was found to increase significantly for blended cements (CEM III/A, CEM V/A and Low-pH mix), this is directly attributed to the microcracking effect which is more significant compared to porosity clogging. The initial mineralogy (portlandite and C-S-H contents) therefore plays a determinant role regarding to the carbonation impact on the cementitious materials behaviour. Furthermore, the representativeness of accelerated carbonation compared to natural one was verified. The data set acquired during this work can be extended and, applied confidently under real carbonation conditions

To United Minds, large-scale surveys are an important offering to clients, not least the public opinion poll Väljarbarometern. A risk associated with surveys is satisficing – sub-optimal response behaviour impairing the possibility of correctly describing the sampled population through its results. The purpose of this study is to – through the use of multivariate outlier detection methods - identify those observations assumed to be non-representative of the population. The possibility of categorizing responses generated through satisficing as outliers is investigated. With regards to the character of the Väljarbarometern dataset, three existing algorithms are adapted to detect these outliers. Also, a number of randomly generated observations are added to the data, by all algorithms correctly labelled as outliers. The resulting anomaly scores generated by each algorithm are compared, concluding the Otey algorithm as the most effective for the purpose, above all since it takes into account correlation between variables. A plausible cut-off value for outliers and separation between non-representative and representative outliers are discussed. The resulting recommendation is to handle observations labelled as outliers through respondent follow-up or if not possible, through downweighting, inversely proportional to the anomaly scores.

A centralidade desse estudo está na intersecção da temática das organizações não governamentais com a do empoderamento. Primeiramente, fez-se uma retomada das discussões concernentes às organizações não governamentais, sua relação com o mercado e o Estado, envolvendo questões como a legitimidade e a representatividade das ONGs. A seguir, é feito um estudo sobre o empoderamento sob o ponto de vista teórico - através das principais abordagens conceituais, e sob o ponto de vista prático: por meio da análise das trajetórias de vida de lideranças de ONGs (com recorte de gênero e raça) e dos projetos dessas organizações que visam a promoção de empoderamento. O elemento diferencial em relação aos estudos anteriores, está na aproximação e no aprofundamento das reflexões entorno do tema “igualdade e diferença” quando aplicado ao empoderamento. / This study focuses on the intersection of the non-governmental organisations thematic and the empowerment´s one. Firstly, we have recaptured the discussions about non-governmental organisations, their relations with market and state, taking in account some questions like NGO’s legitimacy and representativity. After we have analised empowerment under the theoretical point of view – through the main conceptual approaches and under the pratical point of view: by analysing NGO leadership’s careers (considering both gender and race) and those organisations that promote empowerment. This study distinguish from the previous ones by getting closer and deeper from reflexions about the theme “equality and difference” applied to empowerment.

A centralidade desse estudo está na intersecção da temática das organizações não governamentais com a do empoderamento. Primeiramente, fez-se uma retomada das discussões concernentes às organizações não governamentais, sua relação com o mercado e o Estado, envolvendo questões como a legitimidade e a representatividade das ONGs. A seguir, é feito um estudo sobre o empoderamento sob o ponto de vista teórico - através das principais abordagens conceituais, e sob o ponto de vista prático: por meio da análise das trajetórias de vida de lideranças de ONGs (com recorte de gênero e raça) e dos projetos dessas organizações que visam a promoção de empoderamento. O elemento diferencial em relação aos estudos anteriores, está na aproximação e no aprofundamento das reflexões entorno do tema “igualdade e diferença” quando aplicado ao empoderamento. / This study focuses on the intersection of the non-governmental organisations thematic and the empowerment´s one. Firstly, we have recaptured the discussions about non-governmental organisations, their relations with market and state, taking in account some questions like NGO’s legitimacy and representativity. After we have analised empowerment under the theoretical point of view – through the main conceptual approaches and under the pratical point of view: by analysing NGO leadership’s careers (considering both gender and race) and those organisations that promote empowerment. This study distinguish from the previous ones by getting closer and deeper from reflexions about the theme “equality and difference” applied to empowerment.

Le travail mené au cours de cette thèse s’est intéressé à l’étude de la propagation des sources d’incertitudes (données nucléaires, paramètres technologiques, biais de calcul) sur les paramètres intégraux, et à la mise au point d’une méthode d’optimisation multi-critères basée sur l’approche de représentativité et de transposition, permettant de réduire cette incertitude a priori sur une grandeur ciblée (keff , distribution de puissance,...) dès la phase de conception d’un nouveau programme expérimental. La première partie de cette thèse s’est intéressée aux schémas de calcul pour la détermination des profils de sensibilité des paramètres intégraux aux données nucléaires pour différentes échelles de modélisation (cellule, assemblage et cœur), et à leur optimisation multi-filière (REL et RNR). Un schéma de calcul simplifié, basé sur les théories des perturbations standard et généralisée, permet dès à présent la propagation de ces incertitudes sur un large type de grandeur intégrale. Ces travaux ont notamment permis de vérifier la bonne représentativité des réseaux UOX et MOX mis en œuvre dans l’expérience EPICURE par rapport aux REP actuels avec chargement mixte, et de mettre en évidence l’importance de certaines données nucléaires dans l’effet de bascule des nappes de puissance dans les grands cœurs de réacteurs. La seconde partie du travail s’est focalisée sur la mise en place d’outils et de méthodes d’aide à la conception des programmes expérimentaux dans les maquettes critiques. Ces méthodes sont basées sur une approche d’optimisation multi-paramétrée de la représentativité en utilisant simultanément différentes grandeurs d’intérêt. Enfin, une étude originale a été réalisée sur la prise en compte des corrélations entre informations intégrales dans le processus de transposition. La prise en compte de ces corrélations, couplée à la méthode de transposition multi-paramétrée permet l’optimisation de nouvelles configurations expérimentales, répondant au mieux aux besoins de qualification complémentaires des outils de calcul. / The work performed during this thesis focused on uncertainty propagation (nuclear data, technological uncertainties, calculation biases,...) on integral parameters, and the development of a novel approach enabling to reduce this uncertainty a priori directly from the design phase of a new experimental program. This approach is based on a multi-parameter multi-criteria extension of representativity and transposition theories. The first part of this PhD work covers an optimization study of sensitivity and uncertainty calculation schemes to different modeling scales (cell, assembly and whole core) for LWRs and FBRs. A degraded scheme, based on standard and generalized perturbation theories, has been validated for the calculation of uncertainty propagation to various integral quantities of interest. It demonstrated the good a posteriori representativity of the EPICURE experiment for the validation of mixed UOX-MOX loadings, as the importance of some nuclear data in the power tilt phenomenon in large LWR cores. The second part of this work was devoted to methods and tools development for the optimized design of experimental programs in ZPRs. Those methods are based on multi-parameters representativity using simultaneously various quantities of interest. Finally, an original study has been conducted on the rigorous estimation of correlations between experimental programs in the transposition process. The coupling of experimental correlations and multi-parametric representativity approach enables to efficiently design new programs, able to answer additional qualification requirements on calculation tools.

A centralidade desse estudo está na intersecção da temática das organizações não governamentais com a do empoderamento. Primeiramente, fez-se uma retomada das discussões concernentes às organizações não governamentais, sua relação com o mercado e o Estado, envolvendo questões como a legitimidade e a representatividade das ONGs. A seguir, é feito um estudo sobre o empoderamento sob o ponto de vista teórico - através das principais abordagens conceituais, e sob o ponto de vista prático: por meio da análise das trajetórias de vida de lideranças de ONGs (com recorte de gênero e raça) e dos projetos dessas organizações que visam a promoção de empoderamento. O elemento diferencial em relação aos estudos anteriores, está na aproximação e no aprofundamento das reflexões entorno do tema “igualdade e diferença” quando aplicado ao empoderamento. / This study focuses on the intersection of the non-governmental organisations thematic and the empowerment´s one. Firstly, we have recaptured the discussions about non-governmental organisations, their relations with market and state, taking in account some questions like NGO’s legitimacy and representativity. After we have analised empowerment under the theoretical point of view – through the main conceptual approaches and under the pratical point of view: by analysing NGO leadership’s careers (considering both gender and race) and those organisations that promote empowerment. This study distinguish from the previous ones by getting closer and deeper from reflexions about the theme “equality and difference” applied to empowerment.

Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-04-09T19:26:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 laiscoutinhoroxo.pdf: 28829900 bytes, checksum: bc1893916d9a0632251e12d8b7276d6b (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-04-10T12:27:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 laiscoutinhoroxo.pdf: 28829900 bytes, checksum: bc1893916d9a0632251e12d8b7276d6b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-10T12:27:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 laiscoutinhoroxo.pdf: 28829900 bytes, checksum: bc1893916d9a0632251e12d8b7276d6b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-08 / Pesquisa com o intuito de confrontar o uso das personagens em quadrinhos com as representações femininas abrangentes na sociedade atual, quebrando ou reforçando padrões, explorando a inserção do discurso visual das representações, sendo essas construções discursivas observadas como um conjunto integrado a um jogo enunciativo de elementos visuais de padrões sócio históricos. A partir de como o indivíduo (leitor) se relaciona com as imagens dispostas, como a personagem é apresentada visual e narrativamente e as mudanças refletidas no mercado nessas personagens devido ao movimento feminista dentro da cultura pop, conhecido como GirlPower, que teve sua origem nos anos 90 como um slogan da “girl band” britânica Spice Girls, posteriormente seus desdobramentos como fórmula vigente para a criação de novas personagens da cultura de massa, sua consolidação nas produções audiovisuais voltadas a vários tipos de idades diferentes, e finalmente como gatilho para uma retomada nos dias atuais, vinte anos após a primeira utilização do termo. O uso dos conceitos de male gaze1 e female gaze2 aplicados a narrativa e em enquadramentos são utilizados na análise de duas histórias em quadrinhos da personagem Capitã Marvel (Carol Danvers, antes conhecida como Miss Marvel), uma sendo sua primeira edição de 1977 e a outra uma edição de 2012 para observar quais mudanças houveram durante os anos entre as edições, com as alterações sociais, políticas e mercadológicas mundiais, e se elas se adequaram ao que o movimento GirlPower se propõe como representatividade. / Research in order to confront the use of comic characters with the broad feminine representations in the present society, breaking or reinforcing patterns, exploring the insertion of the visual discourse of the representations, being these discursive constructions observed as a set integrated to an enunciative game of elements visual models of socio-historical patterns. From how the individual (reader) relates to the arranged images, how the character is presented visually and narratively and the changes reflected in the market in these characters due to the feminist movement within the pop culture, known as GirlPower, which had its origin in the 90s as a slogan of the British girl band Spice Girls, later its unfolding as a current formula for the creation of new characters of mass culture, its consolidation in the audiovisual productions facing different types of different ages, and finally as a trigger for a resumption today, twenty years after the first use of the term. The use of the concepts of male gaze and female gaze applied to the narrative and in frames is used in the analysis of two comic strips of the character Marvel Captain (Carol Danvers, formerly known as Miss Marvel), one being its first edition of 1977 and the other a 2012 edition to look at what changes have occurred over the years between issues, with global social, political and market changes, and whether they fit what the GirlPower movement proposes as representativeness.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T11:22:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 VALDENIR MARIA SOARES PEREIRA ALVES.pdf: 4592538 bytes, checksum: b3aa7b0074be4537ee09194751fa41c9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-15 / This research analyzes the participation of aparecidenses women in the electoral process for the Aparecida Legislature of Goiânia-GO, 1967-2012 period. Identifies the causes that lead them to have little representation in the legislature Aparecidense Power and investigates whether by political parties which determines the legislation with regard to quotas, and if there are resources available to the candidates, in equality with the candidates. It is the perspective of gender studies is reflected on norms, values and concepts established through roles for men and women. It emphasizes the need for more evidence on participation and women s power of representation in the political municipality. The methodology used was bibliographical and field, based on questionnaires and interviews, and documents held in archives of the City of Aparecida de Goiania, GO. / Esta pesquisa analisa a participação das mulheres aparecidenses no processo eleitoral para o Poder Legislativo de Aparecida de Goiânia-GO, no período de 1967- 2012. Identifica as causas que levam as mesmas a terem pouca representatividade no Poder Legislativo Aparecidense e investiga se os partidos políticos cumprem o que determina a legislação no que diz respeito às cotas, e se há recursos disponíveis para as candidatas, em isonomia com os candidatos. É na perspectiva dos estudos de gênero que se reflete sobre normas, valores e conceitos estabelecidos através dos papéis destinados a homens e mulheres. Ressalta-se a necessidade de uma maior evidência na participação e representações de poder das mulheres nos domínios da política no município. A metodologia utilizada foi bibliográfica e de campo, com base em questionários e entrevistas, e documental, realizada em arquivos da Câmara Municipal de Aparecida de Goiânia-GO.

Le dialogue social a pour but de promouvoir la paix sociale indispensable à tout développement économique. S’il est un passage obligé en matière de prévention et de résolution des conflits sociaux, il est de façon générale aujourd’hui un mode de régulation incontournable dans toutes les sociétés. Au Mali, le dialogue social a connu sous la Troisième République, à partir de la révolution de mars 1991 et avec l’avènement de la démocratie et de l’Etat de droit, un essor remarquable ; celui-ci est allé de pair avec l’éclosion du pluralisme syndical. Quelque peu paradoxalement, aujourd’hui, le développement du dialogue social se heurte précisément à la question de la représentativité. Le fonctionnement de certaines institutions du pays s’en trouve paralyser, tout comme celui de diverses commissions de négociation, ceci dans le secteur privé comme dans le secteur public. Dans un tel contexte, les plus hauts responsables de l’Etat ont eux-mêmes des difficultés pour réunir les acteurs sociaux autour d’une même table. Il apparaît ainsi urgent de déterminer la représentativité essentiellement des organisations syndicales de travailleurs, via l’organisation d’élections professionnelles et le recours à des critères consensuels préalablement définis.Au-delà de la question de la représentativité, il est nécessaire de s’interroger sur les réalités et les enjeux contemporains du dialogue social au Mali. Ceci passe tout d’abord par la réalisation d’un bilan de son encadrement juridique, qu’il s’agisse de droits à l’information, à la consultation ou à la négociation collective au niveau national, sectoriel ou de l’entreprise, ou bien encore des dispositions relatives à la gestion des conflits sociaux. Par ailleurs, il convient d’envisager les conditions d’amélioration du dialogue social au Mali. Ceci conduit d’un part à proposer certaines modifications normatives, d’autre part à réfléchir à sa dynamisation via, notamment, la formation de ses acteurs, l’intervention de tiers facilitateurs, mais aussi l’extension de son périmètre à des questions relatives aux droits sociaux fondamentaux, voire à dimension sociétale. / Social dialogue is intended to promote social peace, a precondition to economic development. It is a prerequisite for prevention and resolution of social conflicts, it is generally today a mode of regulation in all societies. In Mali, social dialogue developed extraordinarily under the third Republic, from the revolution of March 1991 and with the advent of democracy and the rule of law. This went hand in hand with the emergence of pluralism in trade unions. Somewhat paradoxically, today, the development of social dialogue is facing precisely the issue of representativeness. The functioning of some institutions of the country is paralyzed, as well as the functioning of various trading commissions, in both private and public sector. In such a context, the highest state officials themselves are struggling to bring together social actors around the table. Thus, it is urgent to determine essentially representativeness of trade union organizations of workers, through the organization of professional elections and the use of consensual criteria previously defined.Beyond the issue of representativeness, it is necessary to question the realities and contemporary issues of social dialogue in Mali. First of all, this involves taking stock of its legal framework, be its rights to information, consultation or collective bargaining at national, sectoral level of the company, or of the provisions relating to the management of social conflicts. Furthermore, consideration should be given to the conditions leading to improved social dialogue in Mali. On the one hand, this entails proposing normative changes, on the other hand, reflecting on its revitalization through, in particular, its actors, the intervention of third-party facilitator training, but also the extension of its scope to questions relating to fundamental social rights, or even to societal dimension.