Ce travail est une contribution à l’économie de la famille visant à analyser l’importance des interactions familiales sur le comportement des agents économiques. En effet, ces interactions peuvent influencer le pouvoir de négociation des ménages, leurs consommations des biens, ou encore leur offre de travail. Nous nous proposons donc au cours de ce document une évaluation de l’importance de ces interactions dans la prise de décision des ménages. Le modèle de base qui sera utilisé dans les différents résultats est celui de Browing et Chiappori (1998) et généralisé par Chiappori et Ekeland (2006). Ce travail comporte éventuellement trois chapitres dont l’objectif est unique ; il s’agit d’analyser l’effet des interactions familiales sur la prise de décision des ménages : La première partie de la thèse a pour objectif de modéliser l’effet de l'aversion au risque des conjoints sur leur choix marital. Les fondements théoriques de ce travail se trouvent dans une généralisation de l'article de Arrondel et Calvo (2011). Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, on estime l'effet du statut marital, mariage vs concubinage, sur les dépenses des enfants et ce en utilisant les données du Family Expenditure Survey, FES, pour la période 1995-2006. Dans la troisième partie de la thèse, nous illustrons la relation matrimoine consommation par une application empirique plus structurel en utilisant toujours des données Britanniques mais pour une plus longue période (1988-2007). Plus particulièrement, nous nous intéressons à l'estimation du coût individuel des enfants. L’approche adoptée dans cette partie est étroitement liée aux développements récents dans la littérature des modèles collectifs( Browning, Chiappori et Lewbel, 2008 et Lewbel et Pendakur, 2008). / This work is a contribution to the economy of the family to analyze the importance of the family interactions on the behavior of the economic agents. So we propose during this document an evaluation of the importance of these interactions in the decision-making of the households. The basic model which will be used in the various results is the one of Browing and Chiappori ( 1998 ) and generalized by Chiappori and Ekeland (2006 ). This work contains possibly three chapters the objective of which is unique; it is a question of analyzing the effect of the family interactions on the decision-making of the households: The first part of the thesis has for objective to model the effect of parental's risk aversion on their marital choice. The theoretical foundations of this work are in a generalization of the article of Arrondel and Calvo(2011). In the second part of the thesis, we estimate the effect of the marital status, marriage vs cohabitation, on children's well-being by using the data of the Family Expenditure Survey, FES, for period 1995-2006. In the third part of the thesis, we illustrate the relation “matrimoine consumption” by a more structural empirical application using the same British data but for longer period ( 1988-2007 ). More particularly, we are interested to estimate individual children’s cost. The proposed model is inspired by recent collective model of the behavior of the household developed by Browning, Chiappori et Lewbel (2008) and Lewbel et Pendakur (2008).

Les fonds d'investissement islamiques et conventionnels se retrouvent dans la mesure où ils ont la même finalité. En revanche, à la différence des fonds conventionnels, les fonds islamiques se doivent d'investir conformément à un ensemble de règles de sélection. Cette thèse s'intéresse à élaborer un cadre d'analyse théorique et empirique permettant d'expliquer les frais de gestion, ainsi que la performance et le risque des fonds d'investissement. Ainsi, ce travail commence par élaborer une analyse théorique autour des contrats de partage des pertes et des profits (venture contracts) confrontés aux problèmes d'asymétrie d'information. Un modèle théorique, en présence de problème de sélection adverse entre le gérant et l'apporteur de fonds, montre que les degrés d'aversion au risque respectifs du gérant et de l'investisseur ont un impact sur la négociation des frais de gestion indexés sur la performance périodique du fonds (carried interest). Les conclusions de ce modèle nous incitent à expliquer empiriquement le choix des partenaires du fonds concernant les clauses de rémunération, la performance et le risque des fonds d'investissement. Pour ce faire, nous élaborons une base de données unique qui comporte un échantillon international de fonds islamiques et conventionnels regroupés par société de gestion. En distinguant les fonds islamiques des fonds conventionnels, le cadre légal, les conditions politiques et économiques expliquent leurs frais, leurs performances et leurs risques. / Islamic and conventional investment funds have the same purpose. However, unlike conventional funds, Islamic funds offer different investment contracts and have to invest in accordance with a set of selection rules. This dissertation focuses on developing theoretical and empirical analysis framework to explain the fixed and performance fees, the performance and the risk of investment funds. Thus, we begin by developing a theoretical analysis about profit and loss-Sharing contracts (venture capital) that face agency problems. Based on this theoretical framework, a theoretical model, in the presence of adverse selection problem between the fund manager and the investor, shows that the risk aversions of the fund manager and the investor have respectively an impact on the periodic performance fees (carried interest) during the bargaining stage. The conclusions of this model lead us to empirically explain the terms of compensation and profit-Sharing, the performance and the risk of funds. To achieve our objective, we create a unique database that has an international sample of Islamic and conventional funds grouped by management company. By distinguishing between Islamic and conventional funds, the legal, political and economic conditions explain their fees, performance and risk.

Nesta tese são desenvolvidos três estudos sobre as reservas internacionais brasileiras, utilizando diferentes técnicas econométricas, com o objetivo de determinar a influência de medidas absolutas e relativas de reservas sobre o rating soberano de crédito e o spread soberano, bem como o nível adequado para garantir a liquidez externa. As análises foram feitas com dados mensais do período jan/2000-jun/2008. No primeiro estudo, mostrou-se que diferentes medidas de reservas internacionais apresentam efeito significativo na explicação do rating soberano de crédito, através de modelos ordered logit para a média dos ratings emitidos pelas três principais agências (Moody's, Standard & Poors e Fitch). Entretanto, o indicador de maior poder explicativo não foi o nível absoluto de reservas, mas a razão entre dívida pública externa líquida e PIB. Outras variáveis de destacada importância na maioria dos modelos foram o percentual da dívida interna de curto prazo, investimento estrangeiro direto/PIB e inflação. Variáveis tradicionalmente utilizadas como indicadores de liquidez, como razão reservas/importações e conta corrente/PIB, não foram significativas na maioria dos modelos. Os resultados confirmam os indícios contidos no discurso das agências de rating, quanto à importância das reservas internacionais em sua avaliação, embora alertando que outras variáveis, como perfil de endividamento do governo e perspectivas de crescimento, são também fundamentais. O segundo estudo de caso encontrou relação significativa entre as reservas internacionais e o spread soberano, através de modelos de correção de erros. O efeito estimado do rating soberano foi não-significativo ou pouco explicativo, comparado aos fundamentos, provavelmente devido à volatilidade do spread soberano em resposta a variações nas condições do mercado, ao contrário do rating. O melhor modelo obtido utilizou o nível absoluto de reservas, evidenciando também efeitos significativos da aversão global ao risco, taxas de juros internacionais e crises políticas internas. Os resultados desse estudo indicam custo marginal decrescente das reservas internacionais e a necessidade de considerá-lo endógeno em modelos de minimização de custos para determinação do nível ótimo de reservas. O terceiro estudo implementou a metodologia de Liquidity-at-Risk sugerida por Greenspan (1999) para avaliar a adequação do nível de reservas internacionais para a manutenção da liquidez externa. Para a medida de liquidez reservas/dívida externa de curto prazo (razão de Guidotti), estimou-se que o nível de reservas internacionais mantidas pelo Brasil em jun/2008 (US$200 bilhões) era aproximadamente o dobro do necessário para garantir uma razão de Guidotti superior a 1, com 99% de probabilidade, durante 24, 36 ou 48 meses. Em diversos cenários alternativos de percentual das dívidas externa e interna de curto prazo, meta de superávit primário, índice de aversão ao risco e taxas de juros externas, as reservas iniciais necessárias situaram-se em US$85-105 bilhões. A análise de custos revela que o aumento das reservas diminui os juros médios da dívida, embora efeito maior pudesse ser alcançado através do aumento do superávit primário. As evidências sugerem que a motivação das autoridades brasileiras para a manutenção de reservas em torno de US$200 bilhões não é puramente precaucionária, admitindo as hipóteses de ganho de credibilidade e flexibilidade para a execução da política fiscal. / This thesis developed three case studies on the Brazilian international reserves, using various econometric techniques in order to determine the influence of absolute and relative measures of reserves over both the sovereign credit rating and the sovereign spread, as well as to assess the adequate reserves level to ensure external liquidity. Analyses were carried out on monthly data from Jan/2000 to Jun/2008. The first case study found significant effects of different reserves measures in explaining the sovereign credit rating, by fitting ordered logit models to the average of the ratings issued by the three main agencies (Moody's, Standard & Poors and Fitch) for the Brazilian long term external debt. However, the best explaining variable was not the absolute level of reserves, but the ratio "net public external debt/GDP" instead. It was noteworthy the significance of the following variables in most of the models tested: short term internal debt (%), foreign direct investment/GDP and inflation. Variables traditionally used as external liquidity measures, like reserves/imports and current account/GDP, are not statistically significant in most of the models fitted in this study. Results support the evidence found in the rating agencies' reports, as to the importance of international reserves in their credit quality assessment, although pointing to other variables, like government debt profile and growth perspectives, as equally critical. The second case study found significant relationship between the Brazilian international reserves and its sovereign spread, using error correction models. The estimated effect of sovereign rating was either non-significant, or poorly explanatory when compared to macroeconomic fundamentals, probably due to the volatility of sovereign spread in response to changes in market conditions, unlike the sovereign rating. The best model obtained included the absolute level of reserves, showing also significant effect of the global risk aversion, external interest rates and internal political crises. The results of this study point to a decreasing marginal cost of international reserves and the need of considering it as endogenous in optimal reserves models based in cost minimization. Finally, the third case study implemented the Liquidity-at-Risk methodology suggested by Greenspan (1999), in order to assess the Brazilian reserves level adequacy in maintaining external liquidity. For the liquidity measure adopted - the ratio "reserves/short term external debt" (Guidotti's ratio) - it was found that the Brazilian reserves level held in Jun/2008 (US$200 billion) was roughly twice the necessary one to ensure a Guidotti's ratio above 1, with 99% probability, within 24, 36 or 48 months. In several alternative scenarios varying the short term external debt, short term internal debt, primary surplus, global risk aversion and external interest rates, the required initial reserves was in the range US$85-105 billion. An analysis of alternative policies' costs revealed the expected effect of higher reserves in decreasing the average debt service, although a dramatically higher impact would be obtained by an increase in primary surplus. Evidence suggest that the Brazilian authorities motivation for holding international reserves as high as US$200 billion may not be purely precautionary, pointing to the hypotheses of credibility gains and fiscal flexibility issues.

In the first essay I examine the cash policies of female-led firms. Recent research finds that female CEOs eschew riskier corporate policies, but it makes contradicting claims whether this is due to risk aversion. Benchmarking risk aversion by the management of firms’ cash, I find that female CEOs are risk averse relative to male CEOs. Specifically, they hold significantly (18%) more cash, even for the same level of dividend payout as male CEOs. Further, they have significantly higher speed of adjustment for cash deficits, are more likely to use excess cash to increase dividends, but are equally likely to use it to increase investment. Collectively, these results indicate that greater risk aversion in the general female population continues beyond the glass ceiling and likely influences female CEOs’ corporate policies. Nonetheless, cash held by female CEOs has greater marginal value, suggesting a dividend-clientele effect. In the second essay I examine the impact of CEO gender on compensation keeping in view the corporate outcomes that they beget. Risk aversion may influence CEOs’ intertemporal choices and effort regarding short-term and long-term corporate activities. Given that females are more risk averse, I examine whether there are gender-based differences in short- and long-term corporate outcomes and whether these lead to gender-based disparity in CEO compensation. I find that female CEOs have significantly (10%) superior performance on short-term firm outcomes, but inferior (24%) performance on long-term outcomes, relative to male CEOs. However, for a given level of short-term (long-term) performance female CEOs obtain relatively more (less) short-term (short-term and long-term) compensation. The end result is that there is no difference in the total compensation between male and female CEOs. This suggests that female CEOs are well rewarded for their short-termism, enough to make up for their relative underperformance on long-term goals.

Nesta tese são desenvolvidos três estudos sobre as reservas internacionais brasileiras, utilizando diferentes técnicas econométricas, com o objetivo de determinar a influência de medidas absolutas e relativas de reservas sobre o rating soberano de crédito e o spread soberano, bem como o nível adequado para garantir a liquidez externa. As análises foram feitas com dados mensais do período jan/2000-jun/2008. No primeiro estudo, mostrou-se que diferentes medidas de reservas internacionais apresentam efeito significativo na explicação do rating soberano de crédito, através de modelos ordered logit para a média dos ratings emitidos pelas três principais agências (Moody's, Standard & Poors e Fitch). Entretanto, o indicador de maior poder explicativo não foi o nível absoluto de reservas, mas a razão entre dívida pública externa líquida e PIB. Outras variáveis de destacada importância na maioria dos modelos foram o percentual da dívida interna de curto prazo, investimento estrangeiro direto/PIB e inflação. Variáveis tradicionalmente utilizadas como indicadores de liquidez, como razão reservas/importações e conta corrente/PIB, não foram significativas na maioria dos modelos. Os resultados confirmam os indícios contidos no discurso das agências de rating, quanto à importância das reservas internacionais em sua avaliação, embora alertando que outras variáveis, como perfil de endividamento do governo e perspectivas de crescimento, são também fundamentais. O segundo estudo de caso encontrou relação significativa entre as reservas internacionais e o spread soberano, através de modelos de correção de erros. O efeito estimado do rating soberano foi não-significativo ou pouco explicativo, comparado aos fundamentos, provavelmente devido à volatilidade do spread soberano em resposta a variações nas condições do mercado, ao contrário do rating. O melhor modelo obtido utilizou o nível absoluto de reservas, evidenciando também efeitos significativos da aversão global ao risco, taxas de juros internacionais e crises políticas internas. Os resultados desse estudo indicam custo marginal decrescente das reservas internacionais e a necessidade de considerá-lo endógeno em modelos de minimização de custos para determinação do nível ótimo de reservas. O terceiro estudo implementou a metodologia de Liquidity-at-Risk sugerida por Greenspan (1999) para avaliar a adequação do nível de reservas internacionais para a manutenção da liquidez externa. Para a medida de liquidez reservas/dívida externa de curto prazo (razão de Guidotti), estimou-se que o nível de reservas internacionais mantidas pelo Brasil em jun/2008 (US$200 bilhões) era aproximadamente o dobro do necessário para garantir uma razão de Guidotti superior a 1, com 99% de probabilidade, durante 24, 36 ou 48 meses. Em diversos cenários alternativos de percentual das dívidas externa e interna de curto prazo, meta de superávit primário, índice de aversão ao risco e taxas de juros externas, as reservas iniciais necessárias situaram-se em US$85-105 bilhões. A análise de custos revela que o aumento das reservas diminui os juros médios da dívida, embora efeito maior pudesse ser alcançado através do aumento do superávit primário. As evidências sugerem que a motivação das autoridades brasileiras para a manutenção de reservas em torno de US$200 bilhões não é puramente precaucionária, admitindo as hipóteses de ganho de credibilidade e flexibilidade para a execução da política fiscal. / This thesis developed three case studies on the Brazilian international reserves, using various econometric techniques in order to determine the influence of absolute and relative measures of reserves over both the sovereign credit rating and the sovereign spread, as well as to assess the adequate reserves level to ensure external liquidity. Analyses were carried out on monthly data from Jan/2000 to Jun/2008. The first case study found significant effects of different reserves measures in explaining the sovereign credit rating, by fitting ordered logit models to the average of the ratings issued by the three main agencies (Moody's, Standard & Poors and Fitch) for the Brazilian long term external debt. However, the best explaining variable was not the absolute level of reserves, but the ratio "net public external debt/GDP" instead. It was noteworthy the significance of the following variables in most of the models tested: short term internal debt (%), foreign direct investment/GDP and inflation. Variables traditionally used as external liquidity measures, like reserves/imports and current account/GDP, are not statistically significant in most of the models fitted in this study. Results support the evidence found in the rating agencies' reports, as to the importance of international reserves in their credit quality assessment, although pointing to other variables, like government debt profile and growth perspectives, as equally critical. The second case study found significant relationship between the Brazilian international reserves and its sovereign spread, using error correction models. The estimated effect of sovereign rating was either non-significant, or poorly explanatory when compared to macroeconomic fundamentals, probably due to the volatility of sovereign spread in response to changes in market conditions, unlike the sovereign rating. The best model obtained included the absolute level of reserves, showing also significant effect of the global risk aversion, external interest rates and internal political crises. The results of this study point to a decreasing marginal cost of international reserves and the need of considering it as endogenous in optimal reserves models based in cost minimization. Finally, the third case study implemented the Liquidity-at-Risk methodology suggested by Greenspan (1999), in order to assess the Brazilian reserves level adequacy in maintaining external liquidity. For the liquidity measure adopted - the ratio "reserves/short term external debt" (Guidotti's ratio) - it was found that the Brazilian reserves level held in Jun/2008 (US$200 billion) was roughly twice the necessary one to ensure a Guidotti's ratio above 1, with 99% probability, within 24, 36 or 48 months. In several alternative scenarios varying the short term external debt, short term internal debt, primary surplus, global risk aversion and external interest rates, the required initial reserves was in the range US$85-105 billion. An analysis of alternative policies' costs revealed the expected effect of higher reserves in decreasing the average debt service, although a dramatically higher impact would be obtained by an increase in primary surplus. Evidence suggest that the Brazilian authorities motivation for holding international reserves as high as US$200 billion may not be purely precautionary, pointing to the hypotheses of credibility gains and fiscal flexibility issues.

Submitted by Luiz Felipe Constantino (constantino.lf@gmail.com) on 2012-10-01T23:52:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - FormatadaFinal.pdf: 1877901 bytes, checksum: 586e0424a6d2af6580e20588f159f408 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2012-10-02T14:09:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - FormatadaFinal.pdf: 1877901 bytes, checksum: 586e0424a6d2af6580e20588f159f408 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-10-15T17:58:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese - FormatadaFinal.pdf: 1877901 bytes, checksum: 586e0424a6d2af6580e20588f159f408 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-31 / This paper shows that fixed wages are not the optimal solution for a labour contract when the worker’s outside option is a function of a factor that can vary. The worker’s contract will include a bonus that will also be a function of the same factor that modifies its outside option, even though this factor does not depend on his effort and the agent is risk-averse. This result contrasts with the classical theory according to which one should only allocate risk to the employee when such contract is necessary to provide incentives for greater effort from the agent. Another conclusion of this paper is that there is a limit to the risk the employee assumes in the optimal contract, i.e., the value of the bonus is an increasing function of the difference of the values of the worker’s outside options between the possible scenarios only until a certain point, after which the size of the bonus is fixed. / Este trabalho mostra que a solução ótima do contrato de remuneração do empregado não é de salário fixo quando sua utilidade reserva é uma função de um fator que pode variar. A remuneração ótima do empregado incluirá um bônus que será também uma função do mesmo fator que modifica sua utilidade reserva, mesmo que tal fator não dependa do seu esforço e que o agente seja avesso ao risco. Esse resultado contrasta com a teoria clássica segundo a qual só se deveria alocar risco ao funcionário quando tal contrato fosse necessário para prover os incentivos para um esforço maior do agente. Outra conclusão desse trabalho é que existe um limite para o tamanho do risco que o funcionário assume no contrato ótimo, ou seja, o valor do bônus é uma função crescente da diferença dos valores da utilidade reserva nos diferentes cenários possíveis até certo ponto apenas e a partir de determinado valor para essa diferença, a magnitude do bônus se mantém estável.

Abstract This dissertation contributes to the understanding of investor behavior by using personality traits to help explain investor decision-making. The work is novel, as personality traits have not been used much in finance research. The data used in this dissertation is also new to the field, consisting of observations on personality traits and socioeconomic variables combined with official records of investors’ stockholdings. The first essay provides evidence that personality traits significantly affect the stock market participation decision. The essay shows that subscales of traits (i.e., lower-level traits or facets) can provide a better model of behavior, with some subscales of a single higher-level trait having opposite effects on behavior. The novelty seeking subscales exploratory excitability and extravagance have positive and negative effects, respectively, and the reward dependence subscales dependence and sentimentality have positive and negative effects, respectively. The magnitudes of the effects are large, with marginal effects on the probability of being a stock market participant of up to four percentage points. The second essay explores the relationship between personality traits and risk aversion. We estimate risk aversion from equity holdings and from survey measures. The traits display a distinctive pattern of correlations with the estimates of risk aversion. Some traits are significantly related to observed portfolio characteristics such as portfolio volatility, number of stocks held, and trading frequency. The pattern of the traits’ relationships with the various measures of risk aversion indicates that personality traits should not be considered as merely drivers of risk aversion but as preference parameters distinct from risk aversion. The third essay shows that personality traits are related to an investor’s preferences for value versus growth stocks and for small capitalization stocks versus large capitalization stocks. We find more extravagant individuals favor large capitalization growth stocks; more impulsive people favor small capitalization growth stocks; more sentimental investors prefer small capitalization value stocks; and more social investors prefer small capitalization stocks with a tilt towards value. / Tiivistelmä Tämä tutkimus auttaa ymmärtämään sijoituskäyttäytymistä selittämällä sijoittajien päätöksentekoa heidän luonteenpiirteillään. Tutkimustuloksilla on uutuusarvoa, sillä luonteenpiirteiden merkitystä ei ole juurikaan tutkittu rahoitustutkimuksessa. Tutkimusaineisto on sekin luonteeltaan tavanomaisesta poikkeava, koostuen yksityishenkilöiden luonteenpiirteitä ja sosioekonomista asemaa kuvaavista muuttujista sekä heidän osakeomistustaan koskevista virallisista rekisteritiedoista. Tutkimuksen ensimmäinen essee osoittaa, että luonteenpiirteillä on merkittävä vaikutus yksityishenkilön päätökseen toimia osakemarkkinoilla. Tutkimustulosten mukaan osallistumispäätöstä kyetään ennustamaan paremmin käyttämällä luonteenpiirteiden pääluokkia mittaavien muuttujien sijasta luonteenpiirteiden alaluokkia mittaavia muuttujia. Tämä selittyy sillä, että alaluokkia mittaavilla muuttujilla on eräissä tapauksissa vastakkaismerkkisiä, pääluokkaa mittaavassa muuttujassa toisensa peittäviä, yhteyksiä osallistumispäätökseen. Tämä voidaan havaita muun muassa pääluokkaan ”elämyshakuisuus” kuuluvien ”kokeilunhalun” (+) ja ”tuhlaavaisuuden” (-) kohdalla, samoin kuin pääluokkaan ”palkkioriippuvuus” kuuvilla ”riippuvuudella” (+) ja ”sentimentaalisuudella” (-). Kaiken kaikkiaan luonteenpirteitä mittaavien muuttujien vaikutuksen suurusluokka on korkea, vastaten yksittäisen muuttujan kohdalla jopa neljän prosentin marginaalivaikutusta osakemarkkinoille osallistumisen todennäköisyyteen. Toinen essee tarkastelee luonteenpiirteiden ja riskinkarttamisen asteen välistä yhteyttä. Tutkimuksessa mitataan yksityishenkilön riskinkarttamisen astetta toisaalta hänen osakeomistuksensa rakenteen perusteella ja toisaalta kyselytutkimuksen avulla. Sijoittajien luonteenpiirteiden ja muodostettujen riskinkarttamisen astetta mittaavien muuttujien väliset korrelaatiot muodostavat selkeän rakenteen. Eräät luonteenpiirteet ovat merkitsevässä riippuvuussuhteessa muun muassa sijoittajan osakesalkun volatiliteettiin, salkkuun sisällytettyjen osakesarjojen määrään ja sijoittajan kaupankäyntiaktiivisuuteen. Luonteenpiirteitä kuvaavien muuttujien ja riskinkarttamisastetta kuvaavien muuttujien välisen yhteyden perusteella luonteenpiirteitä tulisi tarkastella enneminkin erillisinä sijoittajien preferenssejä kuvaavina muuttujina kuin riskinkarttamisasteen taustalla olevina perustekijöinä. Kolmas essee osoittaa, että luonteenpiirteet ovat yhteydessä siihen, suosiiko sijoittaja arvo- vs. kasvuosakkeita ja/tai alhaisen markkina-arvon vs. korkean markkina-arvon yhtiöiden osakkeita. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, että ”tuhlaavammat” sijoittajat suosivat korkean markkina-arvon omaavia kasvuosakkeita, kun taas ”impulsiivisemmat” sijoittajat suosivat alhaisen markkina-arvon omaavia kasvuosakkeita. Vastaavasti ”sentimentaalisemmat” sijoittajat suosivat ylipäätään alhaisen markkina-arvon omaavia arvo-osakkeita, ”sosiaalisten” sijoittajien suosiessa heidänkin alhaista markkina-arvoa, suunnaten kiinnostustaan samalla arvo-osakkeisiin.

[pt] O expressivo fluxo de capital externo direcionado aos países emergentes ao longo dos anos 90 foi, e continua sendo, objeto de estudo de muitas pesquisas acadêmicas desenvolvidas na área de finanças internacionais. A maioria destes estudos busca investigar empiricamente, em que medida os fatores econômicos domésticos e externos constituem-se em determinantes significativos do fluxo internacional de capital. Semelhantemente, esse mesmo tipo de análise tem sido freqüentemente realizado sob a ótica do risco-país. A única diferença entre as duas análises é que de um lado o interesse é em torno dos determinantes do movimento de capital, do outro, o foco é sobre o movimento dos preços dos ativos e dos bônus soberanos. Dado que uma parte representativa dos fluxos de capital, ao longo da década de 90, esteve direcionada para o mercado de títulos da dívida pública dos países emergentes, motivada pelos mais diversos fatores, o presente trabalho tem como finalidade estudar essa dinâmica de preços com base em três modelos: i) o primeiro modelo analisa os determinantes econômicos internos do risco-país; ii) o segundo modelo tem o mesmo propósito do primeiro, sendo que a variável grau de aversão ao risco global, que serve de proxy para o componente externo do risco, é incluída no grupo de variáveis explicativas; iii) no último modelo, o enfoque é sobre a relação entre o risco-país específico e os fundamentos econômicos. Entendendo-se como risco específico, o risco-país menos o componente externo. No caso, o exercício em questão será aplicado para uma amostra de países emergentes e especificamente para o Brasil. / [en] The expressive flow of external capital directed to the emerging countries along 90's has been the subject of much academic research developed in the area of international finance. Most of these studies attempt to empirically investigate how much country-especific and global factors constitute significant determinants of capital flow. Similarly, this kind of analysis has frequently taken place under the view of country risk. The only difference between the two analyses is that on the one side the major interest is around the movements of the capital flow, whereas on the other one it is around the price determination of sovereign bonds. Given the fact that an important part of capital flow along the 90's was linked to external debt bonds of emerging market countries motivated by several reasons, this dissertation has the goal of studying the economic determinants of price variations based on three models: i) the first model analyzes the domestics determinants of country risk; ii) the second model has the same goal of the first one; however, the global risk aversion variable, which serves as proxy for the external risk component, is included to the group of explanatory variables; iii) the last model specifically focuses on the relationship between country risk and economic fundamentals. It is important that we understand as specific risk, the country risk deprived from the external components. Therefore, the following analysis will be applied to a sample of emerging markets and especifically to Brazil.

Les chocs de santé ont des conséquences contrastées sur les trajectoires d’emploi, dépendant aussi bien de facteurs tenant à l’épidémiologie des maladies qu’à des facteurs d’organisation du marché du travail. Le cancer a ainsi des effets à la fois transitoires et durables sur la situation d’activité et d’emploi des personnes qui y survivent. Notre étude approfondie du cas des travailleurs indépendants montre qu’ils sont caractérisés par des réponses à la maladie les différentiant des travailleurs salariés dans la fréquence et la durée des arrêts-maladie mais également dans le processus de maintien à l’emploi. Certains de ces résultats sont réductibles à des traits de caractère des indépendants, comme leur attitude à l’encontre des risques. Ces résultats tiennent aussi aux modalités de la participation au marché du travail des indépendants et de leurs conditions d’exercice, le plus souvent moins protégées par les dispositifs d’assurance sociale que les travailleurs salariés, car laissés à leur discrétion. Les études utilisées sont l’enquête française sur le cancer « VICAN 2 » financée par l’INCa, l’enquête emploi, et l’enquête américaine « HRS». Tout d’abord, cette thèse souligne la nécessité de faire des études qualitatives et quantitatives seulement sur les indépendants, qui différent substantiellement des travailleurs salariés. Les résultats soulignent aussi que l’aversion au risque n’est pas une caractéristique innée et stable. Les travaux empiriques, étayés par une modélisation théorique, montrent que les chocs de santé peuvent amener les individus à reconsidérer leur goût du risque, à la baisse (maladies chroniques stables) ou à la hausse (survie au cancer). / Consequences of health shocks on professional trajectories are contrasted, depending on epidemiological factors and on the organization of the labor market. In particular, cancer has both transitory and permanent effects on the activity and on the employment status of survivors. Self-employed workers are characterized by responses to the disease that differentiate them from salaried staff, with regards to the frequency and the duration of sick leave and also with regards to their employment status. These results are linked in part to the character traits of self-employed workers, such as their attitudes toward risks. They are also due to the different modalities of their participation to labor force and their unique working conditions, as they are generally less protected by social insurance than salaried employees. The surveys used by this study are two French surveys: « VICAN 2 » survey on cancer funded by INCa, and the labor force survey carried out by INSEE, and the American Health and Retirement Survey (HRS) from the University of Michigan.This thesis underlines the importance of conducting qualitative and quantitative surveys specifically on self-employed workers to evidence their unique difficulties. Results also underline that risk aversion is not an innate and immutable characteristic. Empirical studies and theoretical model developed in this thesis demonstrate that diseases can lead people to reconsider their appetite for risk, often in a downward trend (chronic diseases) and sometimes in an upward trend (survival to cancer).

Prospektteorin presenterades av Kahneman och Tversky år 1979. Teorin förklarar hur beslutsfattande sker under risk. Kahneman belönades år 2002 med Alfred Nobels Ekonomipris för sitt arbete inom beslutsfattande, riskbedömning och rationalitet. Hans forskning nådde den breda massan med boken Tänka, snabbt och långsamt. Sedan boken släpptes år 2011 har den getts ut i över 30 länder och utsågs till en av årets bästa böcker av The Wall Street Journal, The Economist och The New York Times. Studiens syfte var att med hjälp av prospektteorin förklara hur investerare fattar beslut om hållbara investeringar under risk inom den svenska gruvindustrin. För att uppnå syftet identifierades investerares uppfattning av konsekvenser i svenska gruvföretag. Studien utfördes genom att låta investerare bedöma konsekvenser utifrån ett flertal scenarier och sedan fatta beslut om en hållbar investering. På så sätt erhålls en djupare förståelse för hur beslut fattas under risk. Den kvalitativa empiriinsamlingen gjordes i två steg. En inledande intervju gjordes för att fånga respondenternas uppfattning om gruvindustrins risker och potentiella konsekvenser. Därefter utformades med grund i prospektteorin och tidigare studier ett flertal scenarier samt ett mätinstrument för att analysera resultatet. Resultatet bekräftar att investerares beslutsfattande inom den svenska gruvindustrin påverkas i enlighet med prospektteorins grundantaganden kring beslutsfattande under risk. Det visade även att den finansiella risken var avgörande i majoriteten av besluten. Att testa konsekvensernas påverkan på besluten utifrån givna scenarion har bidragit med en fördjupad förståelse för investerares uppfattning om risk inom den svenska gruvindustrin utifrån prospektteorin. / Prospect theory was presented by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979. The theory explains how decision-making takes place under risk. In 2002, Kahneman was awarded the Alfred Nobel Finance Prize for his work in decision making, risk assessment and rationality. His research reached the broad mass with the book Thinking, fast and slow. Since the book was released in 2011, it has been published in over 30 countries and was voted one of the best books of the year by The Wall Street Journal, The Economist and The New York Times. The purpose of the study was to explain how investors make decisions about sustainable investments under risk with the help of prospect theory. To achieve this purpose, investors' perceptions of the consequences in Swedish mining companies were identified. The study was conducted by allowing investors to assess the consequences based on several scenarios and then decide on a sustainable investment. In this way, a deeper understanding of how decisions are made under risk is obtained. The qualitative empirical data collection was done in two steps. An initial interview was conducted to capture respondents' perceptions of the mining industry's risks and potential consequences. Subsequently, based on prospect theory and previous studies, several scenarios and a measuring instrument were developed to analyze the results. The result confirms that investors' decision-making in the Swedish mining industry is affected in accordance with the prospect theory's basic assumptions about decision-making under risk. It also showed that the financial risk was decisive in most decisions. Testing the impact of the consequences on decisions based on given scenarios has contributed to a deeper understanding of investors' perceptions of risk in the Swedish mining industry based on prospect theory.