Klimawissenschaftler sind sich heute weitgehend einig, dass aktuell ein durch den Menschen verursachter Wandel des Klimas stattfindet, welcher große Auswirkungen auf die Menschheit im Allgemeinen hat, aber auch auf die Unternehmenspraxis. Anpassungsmaßnahmen an diese Auswirkungen stellen eine wichtige Möglichkeit dar, die wirtschaftlichen Schäden durch den Klimawandel zu begrenzen bzw. zu vermeiden. Im Rahmen des Projektes REGKLAM („Entwicklung und Erprobung eines integrierten Regionalen Klimaanpassungsprogramms für die Modellregion Dresden“) wird der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf Unternehmen der Region Dresden untersucht, um solche geeigneten Anpassungsmaßnahmen zu entwickeln. Die Methode der Szenarioanalyse wird dabei genutzt, um den Klimaeinfluss auf betriebswirtschaftliche Größen, vorrangig in der regionalen Tourismusbranche, zu analysieren. Dazu wird zunächst eine umfassende Literaturrecherche durchgeführt, deren Ergebnis den Rahmen für eine Szenarioanalyse für die Branche Tourismus der Region Dresden liefert. Im Ergebnis werden einige Anpassungsstrategien für diese Branche erarbeitet.

In recent publications it is questioned whether the existing wastewater management system is suitable for future requirements. The today’s wastewater infrastructure is a complex socio-technical system characterized by centralization, very long life-spans and sunk costs. Thus, it appears questionable whether this system is suitable against the background of a context of dynamic conditions as demographic change, climate change and the emerging requirements in terms of sustainability. This paper adds a contribution to the growing body of literature on prospective waste water management systems. Focusing on long term developments this paper aims to build up scenario-modules towards the year 2050. Our approach combines three methodologies which appear to be suitable with each other, namely the method of explorative scenario development, a modified Delphi method and content analysis. As the waste water sector is a very complex system with various impact factors which are characterized by high dynamics and strong uncertainty the scenario technique appears as an appropriate method. Within the scenario building process a modified Delphi method had been applied to generate the input for the scenario-modules. Key drivers and uncertainties in the field of waste water management were identified by interviewing 16 experts who are scientists or practitioners in the waste water sector. The interviews had been transliterated and then evaluated by using the content analysis approach. Afterwards scenario-modules were derived which provide a basis for further procedure towards complete scenarios for future wastewater infrastructure.

The mining, processing, and use of finite natural resources is associated with significant interventions in the natural environment. Thus, these and other negative consequences make it necessary to reduce resource consumption. An important field of action is the more efficient use of biogenic residues as secondary raw materials. However, high water containing biomasses are still a problem since they need an energy- and cost-intensive pre-treatment for many conversion processes, which can make their use uneconomical. Hydrothermal processes (HTP) seem to be promising, since they require an aqueous environment for optimal processing anyway. Although technological progress within the industry is recognisable, however, to date HTP have not been established in industrial continuous operation in Germany. The core of this work is identifying reasons for this sluggish development and deriving appropriate recommendations for action. Based on the hypothesis that HTP can contribute to the efficient utilisation of biogenic residues in the future, potentials and obstacles for the development of HTP in Germany are identified using a literature review, expert survey, expert workshop, and SWOT analysis. To estimate the future potential of HTP in a systematic and structured way, a multi-criteria technology assessment approach is developed based on the results. To this end, assessment criteria for HTP are derived, weighted by expert judgment, and integrated into a transparent and structured procedure. In addition, mainly based on a Delphi-survey key factors of HTP development by 2030 in Germany are identified and three development alternatives for HTP in Germany by 2030 are derived. Using a system analysis and a comparative multi-criteria analysis at plant level, these scenarios are analysed for their possible future impact. Based on this methodology, the work shows that the production costs for the end products, the energy efficiency of the process, and the proportion of recycled phosphorus are of high relevance to the techno-economic success of HTP compared to reference systems, and they are therefore of high importance for its future development on the plant level. In addition, further key factors for the future development of HTP in Germany on the system level are found to be mainly in the political-legal (e.g. legal waste status of products from HTP) and techno-economic (e.g. cost-effective process water treatment) areas. According to this, important fields of action are the identification and use of cost reduction potentials (e.g. heat waste use), the development of system integrated decentralised plant concepts with integrated nutrient recycling (e.g. phosphorus), and the development of cost-effective ways to treat process water. System integration, cost-effective process water treatment, and nutrient recycling are all closely linked to production costs, investment costs, and potential revenues, and can contribute to improved process economics. For these areas, there is promising future potential to achieve higher competitiveness with reference technologies that are currently more economical.:Bibliographic description Curriculum Vitae Selbstständigkeitserklärung Danksagung List of Publications Contribution to the Publications Contents List of Acronyms List of Tables List of Figures Part I Introductory Chapters 1 Introduction and Background Hydrothermal processes: Introduction and status quo State of the art in the research field and knowledge gaps Objective and research framework Expected value added of this work 2 Materials and methods Derivation of HTP evaluation metrics and technology assessment tool Derivation of key HTP development factors and scenarios Performing the system-level scenario analysis Plant-level scenario analysis and test application of the assessment tool Derivation of core recommendations 3 Results and discussion Key development factors for HTP in Germany and scenarios System-level scenario analysis Test application of the assessment tool on plant level scenarios Recommendations Discussion 4 Conclusion and outlook Future research Further fields for the application of the developed methods 5 References Part II Appended Articles Paper I Paper II Paper III Paper IV Paper V Paper VI / Der Abbau, die Verarbeitung und die Nutzung endlicher natürlicher Ressourcen sind mit erheblichen Eingriffen in die natürliche Umwelt verbunden. Diese und andere negative Folgen machen es daher erforderlich, den Ressourcenverbrauch zu senken. Ein wichtiges Handlungsfeld ist die effizientere Nutzung biogener Reststoffe als Sekundärrohstoffe. Stark wasserhaltige Biomassen sind jedoch ein Problem, da sie für viele Umwandlungsprozesse eine energie- und kostenintensive Vorbehandlung benötigen, was ihre Verwendung unwirtschaftlich machen kann. Hydrothermale Prozesse (HTP) scheinen für diese Reststoffe allerdings vielversprechend zu sein, da sie ohnehin eine wässrige Umgebung für eine optimale Verarbeitung benötigen. Obwohl der technologische Fortschritt innerhalb der Branche erkennbar ist, wurde HTP in Deutschland bisher nicht im industriellen Dauerbetrieb etabliert. Der Kern dieser Arbeit besteht darin, Gründe für diese schleppende Entwicklung zu ermitteln und geeignete Handlungsempfehlungen abzuleiten. Basierend auf der Hypothese, dass HTP in Zukunft zur effizienten Nutzung biogener Reststoffe beitragen können, werden Potenziale und Hindernisse für deren Entwicklung in Deutschland anhand einer Literaturrecherche, einer Expertenumfrage, eines Expertenworkshops und einer SWOT-Analyse ermittelt. Um das zukünftige Potenzial von HTP systematisch und strukturiert abzuschätzen, wird basierend auf den Ergebnissen ein multi-kriterieller Technologiebewertungsansatz entwickelt. Zu diesem Zweck werden Bewertungskriterien für HTP abgeleitet, nach Expertenmeinung gewichtet und in ein transparentes und strukturiertes Verfahren integriert. Darüber hinaus werden hauptsächlich auf der Grundlage einer Delphi-Umfrage Schlüsselfaktoren für die HTP-Entwicklung bis 2030 in Deutschland identifiziert und drei Entwicklungsalternativen für HTP in Deutschland bis 2030 abgeleitet. Mithilfe einer Systemanalyse und einer vergleichenden multi-kriteriellen Analyse auf Anlagenebene werden diese Szenarien auf ihre möglichen zukünftigen Auswirkungen hin analysiert. Basierend auf dieser Methodik zeigen sich als Ergebnisse, dass die Produktionskosten für die Endprodukte, die Energieeffizienz der Prozesse und der Anteil an recyceltem Phosphor für den techno-ökonomischen Erfolg von HTP im Vergleich zu Referenzsystemen von hoher Relevanz und daher auch von hoher Bedeutung für die zukünftige Entwicklung auf Anlagenebene sind. Darüber hinaus liegen weitere Schlüsselfaktoren für die künftige Entwicklung von HTP in Deutschland auf Systemebene hauptsächlich im politisch-rechtlichen (z. B. legalen Abfallstatus von Produkten aus HTP) und techno-ökonomischen (z. B. kostengünstige Prozesswasseraufbereitung)) Bereichen. Wichtige Handlungsfelder sind demnach die Ermittlung und Nutzung von Kostensenkungspotentialen (zB Abwärmenutzung), die Entwicklung systemintegrierter dezentraler Anlagenkonzepte mit integriertem Nährstoffrecycling (z.B. Phosphor) und die Entwicklung kostengünstiger Wege zur Prozesswasserbehandlung. Systemintegration, kostengünstige Prozesswasseraufbereitung und Nährstoffrecycling hängen eng mit Produktionskosten, Investitionskosten und potenziellen Einnahmen zusammen und können zu einer verbesserten Wirtschaftlichkeit der Prozesse beitragen. Für diese Bereiche besteht ein vielversprechendes Zukunftspotenzial für eine höhere Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zu Referenztechnologien, die derzeit noch wirtschaftlicher sind.:Bibliographic description Curriculum Vitae Selbstständigkeitserklärung Danksagung List of Publications Contribution to the Publications Contents List of Acronyms List of Tables List of Figures Part I Introductory Chapters 1 Introduction and Background Hydrothermal processes: Introduction and status quo State of the art in the research field and knowledge gaps Objective and research framework Expected value added of this work 2 Materials and methods Derivation of HTP evaluation metrics and technology assessment tool Derivation of key HTP development factors and scenarios Performing the system-level scenario analysis Plant-level scenario analysis and test application of the assessment tool Derivation of core recommendations 3 Results and discussion Key development factors for HTP in Germany and scenarios System-level scenario analysis Test application of the assessment tool on plant level scenarios Recommendations Discussion 4 Conclusion and outlook Future research Further fields for the application of the developed methods 5 References Part II Appended Articles Paper I Paper II Paper III Paper IV Paper V Paper VI

Construction of municipal utility complexes has to support continuing population growth, economic development, and a widespread of social interest in environmental preservation. Municipalities face challenges in designing, constructing, and operating environmentally sustainable utility complexes, and their primary goal in developing such a complex is to minimize the environmental impact resulting from energy production and waste treatment (both liquid and solid), management, and disposal. However, decision and policy makers lack a system of systems approach that takes into account multiple interdependent systems comprised of the functional system (infrastructure, facilities, operations within the complex…), the economic system, the social/cultural system, and the environmental system (environmental impact on air, water, soil…). This research proposes a decision support system (DSS) with a new methodology using Vensim software and system dynamics methodology to assess the sustainability of a municipal utility complex system. This DSS incorporates 1) multiple interdependent systems, 2) multiple sustainability/performance indices, and 3) composite sustainability index. Engineers, managers, and researchers should benefit from a system of systems perspective, and from the application of a sustainability assessment method that is developed to provide an environmentally-conscious design, construction and management. Although a municipal utility complex is built with synergistic opportunities for integration of processes of a wastewater treatment plant, a resource recovery facility (aka waste-to-energy (WTE) or incineration facility), a material recycling facility (MRF), and a landfill; engineers tend to use the traditional sustainability assessment methods only to assess the life cycle (LCA) of each system's process over time. They might not necessarily incorporate an assessment based on system dynamics of the functional, economic, environmental, and social/cultural systems. Data from a case study is utilized in this dissertation based on the municipal utility complex in Pasco County in the western region of the State of Florida, USA.

In this paper, biochemicals with the potential to substitute fossil reference chemicals in Germany were identified using technological readiness and substitution potential criteria. Their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were quantified by using life cycle assessments (LCA) and their economic viabilities were determined by comparing their minimum selling prices with fossil references’ market prices. A bottom up mathematical optimization model, BioENergy OPTimization (BENOPT) was used to investigate the GHG abatement potential and the corresponding abatement costs for the biochemicals up to 2050. BENOPT determines the optimal biomass allocation pathways based on maximizing GHG abatement under resource, capacity, and demand constraints. The identified biochemicals were bioethylene, succinic acid, polylactic acid (PLA), and polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). Results show that only succinic acid is economically competitive. Bioethylene which is the least performing in terms of economics breaks even at a carbon price of 420 euros per ton carbon dioxide equivalent (€/tCO2eq). With full tax waivers, a carbon price of 134 €/tCO2eq is necessary. This would result in positive margins for PHA and PLA of 12% and 16%, respectively. From the available agricultural land, modeling results show high sensitivity to assumptions of carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in biochemicals and integrated biochemicals production. GHG abatement for scenarios where these assumptions were disregarded and where they were collectively taken into account increased by 370% resulting in a 75% reduction in the corresponding GHG abatement costs.

Climate change presents financial risks for banks and must therefore be treated accordingly. To assess and manage these risks, banks are expected to apply scenarioanalysis and adopt the TCFD’s recommendations on climate-related risk disclosures. This study analyzes how climate scenario analysis is implemented and reported in the Swedish banking sector. Empirical data has been collected through interviews with six banks, as well as through public annual and sustainability reports. The results of the study indicate that banks are in a learning phase characterized by uncertainty and lack of data, resulting in careful considerations in making strategic decisions based on the scenario analysis and when disclosing climate related information. Thus, banks do not disclose their scenario analysis as transparently as the TCFD suggests, thereby affecting the comparability within the sector. Further improvements related to more accessible and granular data are needed. In addition, many banks consider this to be a governmental issue where regulations are beneficial for establishing standardized models and common practices, which in turn could increase transparency and comparability. / Klimatförändringar medför finansiella risker som banker behöver beakta. För att bedöma och hantera dem bör banker genomföra scenarioanalyser samt följa de rekommendationer som TCFD gett ut gällande klimatrelaterad rapportering. Denna studie ger en nulägesanalys av hur scenarioanalys implementeras och rapporteras inom den svenska banksektorn. Studien bygger på empirisk data från intervjuer med sex banker, samt från publika års- och hållbarhetsredovisningar. Resultatet av studien visar att bankerna är i en lärandefas präglad av osäkerhet, där bland annat datatillgänglighet är ett stort problem. Bristfälligheterna medför att bankerna är försiktiga med att fatta strategiska beslut utifrån scenarioanalyserna samt med vad de rapporterar publikt, vilket påverkar transparensen och jämförbarheten inom sektorn. Dessutom anser många banker att detta är en samhällsfråga där regleringar kan bidra till ökad standardisering av data och modeller samt etablering av gemensamma standarder, vilket även kan ha en positiv inverkan på rapporteringen och således öka transparensen och jämförbarheten inom sektorn.

Global warming is an issue that affects the entire world. The aviation industry accounts for around three percent of global emissions, and actions are needed to help steer the industry towards a sustainable transition with new technologies and alternative aviation fuels to reduce emissions. There are options today for passengers to compensate flight emissions through carbon offsetting. The purpose of this report is to investigate how the aviation and carbon offset industries are likely to develop in the future in order to provide knowledge that an air travel comparison site can use to adapt its carbon offset alternative to new market conditions. The empirical data in this study consist of interviews with stakeholders in the aviation and carbon offset industries as well as a politician. Industrial reports and a literature review were used in combination with the empirical data and analyzed with theories such as industrial dynamics, network innovation and scenario analysis to result in a possible future scenario of the industries. Further, conclusions with necessary actions in order to develop a more sustainable aviation industry and how carbon offsetting can be renewed due to a sustainable aviation transition. Additionally, managerial implications for an air travel comparison site followed with suggestions on how they can contribute to this transition. The conclusions from this study are to develop existing networks and establish new ones to share knowledge from many different stakeholders in the industry and use their capabilities to propose regulatory changes as well as prepare the industry for sustainable solutions in the future. Networks should also use their collective power to lobby for changes that will drive the transition towards a more sustainable aviation industry forward. The broad expertise that these networks possess can be used to provide customers with knowledge to make the option to carbon offset a flight more attractive. It is important that knowledge and marketing of carbon offsetting is transparent to inform customers of its effects on the climate. Biofuels and electrified aircrafts are sustainable solutions more suitable for the future due to the high price of biofuels and electrified aircrafts not ready to replace regular jet-aircrafts. Thus, carbon offsetting is the best option to reduce net emissions from a flight today. The short-term recommendations are for an air travel comparison site to be involved in the transition towards more sustainable aviation fuel by offering customers the option to purchase biofuel together with or as an alternative to carbon offset when booking a flight. An air travel comparison should also support organizations and firms working with sustainable solutions such as introduction of electrified aircrafts, through partnerships or investments to help steer the industry in a sustainable direction. The long-term recommendation for an air travel comparison site is to continuously stay updated with the latest research and knowledge expertise within the industry to adapt its carbon offset alternative to new conditions in the future. This study is to be considered as an informational foundation for an air travel comparison site to adapt its carbon offset alternative to a dynamic aviation industry. However, the study does not include empirical data from all stakeholders within the aviation industry hence the information used in this study is limited. / Global uppvärmning är ett aktuellt problem som påverkar hela världen. Flygindustrin står för runt tre procent av de globala utsläppen och åtgärder behövs för att styra industrin mot en hållbar utveckling med ny teknologi och alternativa flygbränsle för att minska utsläppen. Idag finns det möjlighet för passagerare att kompensera sina flygutsläpp genom klimatkompensation. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur flyg- samt klimatkompensationsindustrin troligtvis kommer att utvecklas i framtiden och hur företag inom flygindustrin kan tillämpa den kunskapen för att påverka utvecklingen mot en mer hållbar flygindustri. Med hjälp av kunskapen ska klimatkompensationsalternativ kunna anpassas utefter dem nya förutsättningarna i framtiden. Den empiriska data för denna studie består av intervjuer med intressenter från flyg- och klimatkompensationsbranscherna samt en politiker. Industrirapporter och en litteraturrecension har använts i kombination med empiriska data tillsammans med teorier såsom industriell dynamik, nätverksinnovation och scenario analys som resulterat i ett troligt framtidsscenario för industrierna. Vidare följer en slutsats samt ledningsliga implikationer och rekommendationer för en flygprisjämförelsesajt. Slutsatserna från denna studie är att utveckla redan befintliga samt etablera nya nätverk för att dela kunskap från många olika intressenter inom flygindustrin och använda sig av deras förmågor för att föreslå ändringar i lagstiftningen samt förbereda flygindustrin för hållbara lösningar i framtiden. Nätverk bör också använda deras samlade makt till att lobba för beslut som driver utvecklingen av en mer hållbar flygindustri framåt. Den breda expertisen som dessa nätverk besitter kan användas för att informera och förse kunder med kunskap om fördelarna med klimatkompensation och öka intresset för att klimatkompensera en flygresa. Marknadsföring och information om klimatkompensation behöver vara transparent för att kunder ska förstå effekterna det har på klimatet. Biobränslen och elektrifierade flyg är hållbara lösningar som är mer troliga för framtiden då priset på biobränslen är väldigt högt idag och elektrifierade flyg är långt ifrån redo att ersätta dagens jet-flyg. Därmed är klimatkompensation det bästa alternativet för att reducera nettoutsläpp idag. Kortsiktiga rekommendationer för en prisjämförelsesite är att vara involverande i övergången till mer hållbara bränslen genom att erbjuda kunder ett alternativ till att köpa biobränsle i kombination med att klimatkompensera. För att styra industrin i en mer hållbar riktning bör en flygprisjämförelsesite ge stöd i form av investeringar och samarbeten med organisationer och företag som arbetar med hållbara framtidslösningar som exempelvis utveckling av elektriska flygplan. Långsiktiga lösningar är att kontinuerligt hålla sig uppdaterade med den senaste forskningen och kunskapsexpertisen inom industrin för att anpassa sitt klimatkompensationsalternativ i framtiden. Denna studie ska betraktas som en informell grund för företag inom flygindustrin att påverka en övergång till en mer hållbar flygindustri samt utveckla sitt klimatkompensationsalternativ i framtiden. Studien innehåller ej empiriska data från alla intressenter inom flygbranschen och skall därför ses som begränsad.

As the green transition gains importance, the demand for green technologies and rare earth elements (REE)has surged. The Nordic countries are overall well-supplied with minerals and metals, however, they have a ratherunique dilemma. Knowing that the majority of Swedish mines are situated on Sápmi, a relevant question is raised:How do we extract mineral resources to benefit the green transition, whilst respecting the land of Europe's onlyIndigenous group, the Sami people? Moreover, as the CSDDD framework emerges, yet another question is raised:How might CSDDD promote Sami influence in future mining-related decision-making? To explore this matter, I haveconstructed a most likely scenario and used the recent REE findings in Kiruna as a case study. The framework seemsto promote Sami influence in numerous ways as it creates a new legal ground to demand participation and seek justice,expands the definition of Sami interests, allows for consultations with nearby Sami villages, includes the Samiperspective on negative impacts, and could result in Sami people being consulted in terms of Indigenous rights-holders.However, if the framework and the Swedish mining permitting system are not synchronized properly, it might resultin cases where mining companies receive permits that conflict the will of the Sami people. Furthermore, theframework’s mentions of stakeholder engagement and Indigenous participation leave room for interpretation. At worst,the level of Sami influence in future mining-related decision-making could lie in the hands of the member states, andhence, the mining companies.

全球主要國家正積極推展「行動電視」服務，手持式行動電視將整合無線電視台、手機、電信以及創意與內容產業，被視為新媒體藍海，電視業者與電信業者都有意搶攻行動電視這塊商機。手機結合電視將成為未來行動多媒體影音平台主流，但基於台灣在發展數位廣播技術與相關接收設備產品的時程，遠落後其他已開發國家及開發中國家，因此未來發展的不確定性仍高。本研究主要以SRI情境分析法，對未來五年內台灣行動電視產業的發展進行分析預測，亦進一步探討世界主要國家其行動電視市場發展成功的關鍵因素以及台灣行動電視產業的主要影響因素。針對上述研究問題，本研究之研究結論如下： 1. 在世界各國其行動電視市場發展成功的關鍵因素方面，包括終端設備的多樣性、政府對產業的整體態度、業者策略聯盟的效應、多元或專屬的內容、彈性的營運模式及市場內需需求量。 2. 在台灣行動電視產業發展主要影響因素方面，主要涵蓋政策、技術標準及市場環境等三大構面。 3. 在我國政府與業者在行動電視產業未來的發展策略方面，主要有四大重點策略包括重視軟體研發能力、成立獎勵投資方案、創造產品差異性以及強化進入障礙屏障。 / The world's major countries are actively promoting the "Mobile TV" service, handheld mobile TV will be integrated wireless television stations, cell phones, telecommunications, and the creativity and content industry, as new media’s BlueOcean, the television industry and the telecommunication operators have the intention to grab this business opportunities. Mobile TV will be a multimedia platform for future mainstream, but based on Taiwan in the development of broadcasting technology and related products, far behind other developed countries and developing countries, therefore the future development of the uncertainty is still high. This research is based on SRI scenario forecasting methodology to predict mobile TV industry development trend in Taiwan in the next coming 5 years period, also further explore the key success factors of major countries mobile TV market, and the main influence factors of Taiwan mobile TV industry. The following is the conclusion of this research. 1. The key success factors of major countries mobile TV market, inclusive of the diversity of terminal equipment, government’s attitude, the effects of strategic alliances, Diversity of content, Flexible business model and Market demand for domestic. 2. The main influence factors of Taiwan mobile TV industry, included policies, technical standards and market environment. 3. The future development strategy at mobile TV industry, inclusive of software development capacity, encourage investment program, create product differentiation and strengthen the barrier of entry barriers.

Le système de simulation et d'avis précoce d'alerte est un outil puissant pour la surveillance de la qualité de l'eau de la rivière Mudan, une rivière importante dans les régions froides du nord-est de la Chine et qui se jette finalement dans la rivière de l'Amour en Russie. Ainsi la qualité de l'eau dans la rivière Mudan est une préoccupation importante non seulement au niveau local et régional,mais aussi au niveau international. L'objectif de cette étude est de créer un système de simulation et d'avis précoce d'alerte pour que la distribution spatio-temporelle de la qualité de l'eau durant les périodes de couverture glaciaire et d'eaux libres soit simulée et visualisée précisément et afin que l'on puisse appréhender la variation spatiale de polluants sur le cours de rivière. La thèse est structurée en 7 chapitres. Dans le premier chapitre nous décrivons le contexte de l'étude et faisons un état de lieu des recherches actuelles. Dans le chapitre Il, la comparaison des modèles principaux disponibles pour l'évaluation de la qualité de l'eau est réaliser ainsi que le choix du meilleur modèle comme base pour créer le système de modélisation. Dans le chapitre Ill, la construction du modèle,les conditions limites requises et les paramètres pour le modèle ont été vérifiés et étalonnés. Une procédure de simulation distribuée est conçue dans le chapitre IV pour améliorer l'efficacité de la simulation. Le chapitre V concerne la programmation et la réalisation la de simulation distribuée et le chapitre VI les techniques fondamentales pour mettre en œuvre le système. Le chapitre VII est la conclusion. Il y a trois points innovants dans ce travail: un modèle bidimensionnel de dynamique de fluides de l'environnement pour la rivière Mudan, une méthode efficace du calcul distribué et un prototype de système de simulation et d'avis précoce d'alerte qui peuvent largement améliorer la capacité de surveillance et de gestion de la qualité de l'eau de la rivière Mudan ou d'autres rivières similaires. / Simulation and Early Warning System (SEWS) is a powerful tool for river water quality monitoring. Mudan River, an important river in northeastern cold regions of China, can run out of China into Russia. Thus, the water quality of Mudan River is highly concerned not only locally andregionally but also internationally. Objective of this study is to establish an excellent SEWS of water quality so that the spatio-temporal distribution of water quality in both open-water and ice-covered periods can be accurately simulated and visualized to understand the spatial variation of pollutants along the river course. The dissertation is structured into 7 chapters, chapter 1 outlines the background of the study and reviews the current progress. Chapter Il compares the main available models for evaluating river water quality so that a better model can be selected as the basis to establish a modeling system for Mudan River. Chapter Ill establishes the model, the required boundary conditions and parameters for the model were verified and calibrated. Chapter IV, a distributed simulation procedure was designed to increase the simulation efficiency. Chapter V discusses more about the programing and operational issues of the distributed simulation. Chapter VI is about the core techniques to implement the system. Chapter VII is the conclusion of the study to summarize the key points and innovations of the study. The study has the following three points as innovation : a two-dimensional environmental fluid dynamics model for Mudan River, an efficient distributed model computational method and a prototype of SEWS, which can greatly improve the capability of monitoring and management of water quality in Mudan River and other similar rivers.