[pt] Os mercados de commodities tornaram-se uma nova alternativa para investidores nos últimos quinze anos, em um processo conhecido como financeirização dos mercados de commodities. Vários estudos têm explicado as razões deste fenômeno, porém esta é uma questão ainda pouco estudada na literatura de economia agrícola e energética no Brasil. Como a financeirização do mercado de commodities mudou a dinâmica dos preços ao longo dos anos? Esta tese aplica modelos não lineares para entender se a especulação causou os movimentos de preços nos mercados de commodities agrícolas, bem como para investigar a descoberta de preços no mercado brasileiro ao se testar os mecanismos de transmissão dos preços internacionais de energia e commdities agrícolas aos preços brasileiros de etanol e gasolina. Procuramos investigar com os mesmos modelos não lineares os efeitos de transbordamento dos mercados globais de futuros para os preços à vista locais. Por fim, analisa-se o aumento da liquidez nos mercados de commodities, desenvolvemos para tanto uma nova medida para compreender o grau de ambiguidade dos preços de 12 commodities agrícolas. Apesar dos testes econométricos, os resultados foram inconclusivos sobre o papel da especulação no impacto dos retornos dos preços das commodities. Existe um nexo entre os preços internacionais do petróleo e do etanol brasileiro, e os preços globais das commodities aumentaram os efeitos de contágio nos mercados spot brasileiros. Finalmente, a financeirização dos mercados de commodities aumentou a liquidez do mercado medida pelo grau de ambiguidade. Esta tese contribui para o campo ao aplicar abordagens econométricas robustas e inovadoras, bem como ao evidenciar como o price discovery e o risk-sharing afetam a dinâmica dos preços das commodities. / [en] Commodity markets have become a new investment alternative for portfolio investors over the last fifteen years, in a process known as the financialization of commodity markets. Several studies have explained the reasons for this phenomenon (e.g., speculation and increase in biofuels production), leading to a question largely understudied in agricultural and energy economics literature. How has the financialization of the commodities market changed the price dynamic over the years? This thesis applies nonlinear models to understand whether the speculation caused the price movements in the agricultural commodity markets; investigates the price discovery in the Brazilian market by analyzing the transmission of international energy and feedstocks prices to Brazilian ethanol and gasoline prices; and investigates the spillover effects from global futures markets to local spot prices. In addition, it analyzes the increased liquidity in the commodity markets by developing a new measurement to gauge the degree of ambiguity for 12 agricultural commodities prices. Despite the robust econometric tests performed, the findings were inconclusive on the role of speculation in impacting the price returns of commodities. It also found that there exists a nexus between international oil and Brazilian ethanol prices, and global commodities prices have increased the spillover effects on the Brazilian spot markets. Finally, the financialization of commodity markets has increased the liquidity in the market as measured by the degree of ambiguity. This thesis contributes to the field not only by applying more robust, novel econometric approaches but also by evidencing how information discovery and risk-sharing affect the commodity price dynamics.

The growing importance of Creative AI and its uncertain impact on people necessitates more research. Current studies mainly focus on technical aspects, neglecting consumer perspectives. This study seeks to explore consumer perceptions of Creative AI in consumer media and introduces speculative labeling as a potential solution to empower consumer choice. Through Content Analysis of 32 Creative AI tools and a survey of 40 respondents, insights on AI’s value, potential job displacement, and the need for AI usage disclosure emerged. These findings informed a workshop with 7 participants using the newly proposed N-Speculation method and uncovered consumers’ bias against AI but indifference toward creators. Factors like cost, quality, and the creator (AI or Human) affect purchase decisions. Consumers favor labeling with clear pictograms and detailed AI usage information. These findings advance our understanding of consumer preferences and highlight the need for more consumer-centric Creative AI research. This research underscores the importance of education, addressing bias, and supporting the growth of Creative AI for all stakeholders / Den ökande betydelsen av Kreativ AI och dess osäkra inverkan på människor kräver ytterligare forskning. Nuvarande studier fokuserar främst på tekniska aspekter och försummar konsumentperspektivet. Denna studie syftar till att utforska konsumentens uppfattning av Kreativ AI i konsumentmedier och presenterar spekulativa märkningar som en potentiell lösning för att stärka konsumentens val. Genom innehållsanalys av 32 Kreativ AI-verktyg och en enkät bland 40 respondenter framkom insikter om Kreativ AI:s värde, potentiell arbetsdislokation och behovet av information om AI-användning. Dessa resultat utgjorde grunden för en workshop med 7 deltagare som använde den nyligen föreslagna N-Speculation-metoden och avslöjade konsumentens fördomar mot AI men likgiltighet gentemot skapare. Faktorer som kostnad, kvalitet och skapare (AI eller människa) påverkar köpbesluten. Konsumenten föredrar märkningar med tydliga piktogram och detaljerad information om AI-användningen. Dessa resultat fördjupar vår förståelse av konsumentpreferenser och understryker behovet av mer konsumentcentrerad forskning om Kreativ AI. Denna forskning betonar betydelsen av utbildning, att hantera fördomar och att stödja tillväxten av Kreativ AI för alla intressenter

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Creative artificial intelligence (AI) is often explored in terms of machine intelligence on a philosophical basis. As a counter-reaction, there have been calls for user-centered creative AI. This thesis aims to make visible creative practitioners’ needs, values, and ethical perspectives that might inform us on the construction of future creative AI tools. It also discusses the need for pragmatic aesthetics as a holistic design approach. Five artists of different backgrounds were invited to a co-speculative workshop where they expressed their thoughts and imaginings regarding creativity, creative tools, and AI. The results suggest that we need to be mindful of virtue ethics, N-creativity, exploration, intuition, trust, and agency when designing creative AI tools. Furthermore, the findings were used to propose design sensitivities aimed at AI researchers and designers. Future research is needed in order to make conclusions about the practical value of the proposed design sensitivities. / Kreativ artificiell intelligens (AI) undersöks ofta i termer av maskinintelligens med filosofiska grunder. Som en motreaktion har det förordnats mer användarcentrerad kreativ AI. Denna avhandling syftar till att synliggöra kreativa utövares behov, värderingar och etiska perspektiv som kan informera oss om hur framtida kreativa AI-verktyg bör konstrueras. Den diskuterar även behovet av pragmatisk estetik som en holistisk designstrategi. Fem konstnärer av olika bakgrund deltog i en samspekulativ workshop där de uttryckte sina tankar och föreställningar om kreativitet, kreativa verktyg och AI. Resultaten pekar på att dessa verktyg bör designas med begrepp som dygdetik, N-kreativitet, utforskande, intuition, tillit och datainverkan i åtanke. Vidare användes resultaten för att föreslå designkänsligheter riktade till AI-forskare och designers. Vidare forskning krävs för att kunna dra slutsatser kring designkänsligheternas praktiska nytta.

Die Dissertation „Der Spekulant als literarische Figur – Seine Darstellung in Romanen des 19. Jahrhunderts: Gustav Freytags Soll und Haben, Gottfried Kellers Martin Salander und Heinrich Manns Im Schlaraffenland“ analysiert literarische Auseinandersetzungen und Reaktionen auf spekulative Praktiken, ihre Darstellungen des Spekulanten, sowie ihre Anbindungen und Widersprüche zu zeitgenössischen wirtschaftstheoretischen Schriften. Die literarischen Texte sind Zeitdokumente, die als Wissensspeicher fungieren, sie haben dazu beigetragen, bestimmte Metaphern, Vorstellungen von Abläufen spekulativer Blasen sowie Verhaltensmuster ihrer Akteure zu verfestigen. Die Erzählstrukturen der Romane gleichen den Entwicklungsstufen von Massensemantiken, zu denen auch Spekulationsblasen zählen. Mit dieser strukturellen Überschneidung lassen sich ökonomische Verläufe als Krisennarrationen ins literarische Erzählen überführen, denn die Literatur bedarf der Krise, um von Spekulationen und Wirtschaftsabläufen zu erzählen. / The dissertation “The speculator as a literary character – His representation in novels of the 19th century: Gustav Freytag's Soll und Haben, Gottfried Keller's Martin Salander and Heinrich Mann's Im Schlaraffenland” analyses literary considerations and reactions to speculative practices, their depictions of the speculator, and their connections and contradictions to contemporary writings on economic theory. The literary texts are contemporary documents that function as a repository of knowledge; the novels have helped to solidify certain metaphors, ideas about how speculative bubbles work and the behavioral patterns of their participants. The narrative structures of the novels resemble the development stages of mass semantics, which also include speculative bubbles. With this structural overlap, economic processes as a crisis can be transformed into literary narration, as literature needs the crisis in order to tell of speculation and economic processes.

Die studie vergelyk die prestasie van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie met die van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie binne die raamwerk van die arbitrasie-prysbepalingsteorie (APT) op die nywerheidsindeks van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JA). Die periode van die studie is oor twee tydperke, naamlik Januarie 1970 tot September 1987 en Januarie 1989 tot Junie 1997. Die langtermyntendens van die nywerheidsindeks en APT-faktore is bepaal deur die beste nie-reglynige model vir elke tydreeks te vind. Reglynige meervoudige stapsgewyse regressie-ontleding is gebruik om die bewegings van die nywerheidsindeks rondom die langtermyntendens te voorspel. Die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore en die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling is as moontlike voorspellers gebruik. Gegrond hierop is beslissingslyne ontwik:kel wat gebruik is vir die implementering van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie. Die resultate van die studie is die volgende: • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APTfaktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 6, 41 persent en 0, 71 persent b6 die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 10,40 persent en 1,04 persent b6 die van 'n koop-enhou- strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. Die belangrikste gevolgtrekking van die studie is dat die APT en 'n tydsberekeningstrategie teoreties en prakties versoenbaar is op die JA. Aanbevelings vir toekomstige navorsing is die volgende: ( 1) sistematiese risikofaktore, anders as makro-ekonomiese faktore, behoort identifiseer te word wat die voorspellingswaarde van die faktore in die tweede tydperk van die studie kan verhoog; (2) elke stap van die model wat ontwikkel is, behoort op elke indeks van die JA toegepas te word om die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie toegepas op elkeen van die indekse met die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie te vergelyk; en (3) die invloed van transaksiekoste en dividende op die potensiele voordele van tydsberekening moet bepaal word. / The study compares the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy with that of a markettiming strategy in the framework of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) applied to the industrial index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study period is divided into two parts, namely January 1970 to September 1987 and January 1989 to June 1997. The long-term trend of the industrial index and every APT factor is determined by finding the best nonlinear model for each time series. Linear multiple stepwise regression analysis, with the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors, is used to forecast the movement of the industrial index around its long-term trend. Decision lines were developed to implement a market-timing strategy. The results of the study are as follows: • Where the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the risk-adjusted return of a markettiming strategy was 6, 41 percent and 0, 71 percent higher than that of a buyand- hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. • Where the lagged time series of the first-order difference of the long-term trend error term of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the riskadjusted return of the market-timing strategy was 10,40 percent and 1,04 percent higher than that of a buy-and-hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. The main conclusion of the study is that the APT and a market-timing strategy are theoretically and practically reconcilable on the JSE. The main recommendations of the study are the following: (1) systematic risk factors, other than macroeconomic factors, should be identified in order to increase the forecasting value of these factors in the second period of the study; (2) each step of the model developed in this study should be repeated on every index of the JSE; and (3) the influence of transaction costs and dividends on the potential benefits of a market-timing strategy should be determined. / Business Management / DCom (Sakebestuur)

The study investigates whether the main capital market theories and pricing models provide a reasonably accurate description of the working and efficiency of capital markets, of the pricing of shares and options and the effect the risk/return relationship has on investor behaviour. The capital market theories and pricing models included in the study are Portfolio Theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Options Theory and the BlackScholes (8-S) Option Pricing Model. The main conclusion of the study is that the main capital market theories and pricing models, as reviewed in the study, do provide a reasonably accurate description of reality, but a number of anomalies and controversial issues still need to be resolved. The main recommendation of the study is that research into these theories and models should continue unabated, while the specific recommendations in a South African context are the following: ( 1) the benefits of global diversification for South African investors should continue to be investigated; (2) the level and degree of efficiency of the JSE Securities Exchange SA (JSE) should continue to be monitored, and it should be established whether alternative theories to the EMH provide complementary or better descriptions of the efficiency of the South African market; (3) both the CAPM and the APT should continue to be tested, both individually and jointly, in order to better understand the pricing mechanism of, and risk/return relationship on the JSE; (4) much South African research still needs to be conducted on the efficiency of the relatively new options market and the application of the B-S Option Pricing Model under South African conditions. / Financial Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

This thesis examines strategies of anticipation in contemporary post-cinematic art. In the Introduction and the first chapter, I make the case for anticipation as a cultural technique for the construction of and adjustment to future scenarios. This framing allows analysis of constructions of futures as culturally and media-historically specific operations. Via anticipation, constructions of futures become addressable as embedded in specific performative and material economies: as regimes of prediction. The hypothesis is that cultural techniques of anticipation do not only serve to construct particular future scenarios, but also futurity, the very condition for the construction of futures. Drawing upon the philosophical works of, in particular, Vilem Flusser, Jacques Derrida and Elena Esposito, and the theory of cultural techniques, I conceptualize anticipation through the analysis of post-cinematic strategies. I argue that post-cinematic art is particularly apt for the conceptualization of anticipation. The self-reflexive multi-media interventions of post-cinematic art can expose the realisms that govern regimes of prediction. Three cultural techniques of anticipation and their use as artistic strategies in post-cinematic art are theorized: enactment, soft montage and rendering. Each of these techniques is examined in its construction of futures through performative and material operations in art gallery spaces. The second chapter examines strategies of enactment in post-cinematic installations by Neïl Beloufa. My readings of Kempinski (2007), The Analyst, the Researcher, the Screenwriter, the CGI tech and the Lawyer (2011), World Domination (2012) and Data for Desire (2014) propose that enactment allows for an engagement with futures beyond extrapolation. With Karen Barad's theory of agential realism, the construction of futures becomes graspable as a political process in opposition to a mere prolonging of the present into the future. The third chapter focuses on the strategy of soft montage in works by Harun Farocki. I interpret Farocki's application of soft montage in the exhibition Serious Games I-IV (2009-2010) as a critical engagement with anticipatory forms of organizing power and distributing precarity. His work series Parallel I-IV (2012-2014) is then analyzed as a speculation on the future of image production technologies and their role in constructing futures. The final chapter analyses the self-referential use of computer-generated renderings in works by Hito Steyerl. The installations How Not To Be Seen (2013), Liquidity Inc. (2014), The Tower (2015) and ExtraSpaceCraft (2016) are read as interventions in the performative economies of contemporary image production. I argue that these works allow us to grasp the reality-producing and futurity-producing effects of rendering as anticipatory cultural technique. My thesis aims to contribute to the discussions on a 'turn towards the future' in contemporary philosophy and cultural criticism. My research thus focuses on the following set of questions. What can we learn about the operations of future construction through encounters with post-cinematic art? How are futures and future construction framed in such art? What realisms do future constructions rely on? And how can anticipation as a cultural technique be politicized and democratized?

Tradicinės x86 architektūros spartinimui artėjant prie galimybių ribos, kompanija Intel pradėjo kurti naują IA-64 architektūrą, paremtą EPIC – išreikštinai lygiagrečiai vykdomomis instrukcijomis vieno takto metu. Ši pagrindinė savybė leidžia vykdyti iki šešių instrukcijų per vieną taktą. Taipogi architektūra pasižymi tokiomis savybėmis, kurios leido efektyviai spręsti su kodo optimizavimu susijusias problemas tradicinėse architektūrose. Tačiau kompiliatorių optimizavimo algoritmai ilgą laiką buvo tobulinami tradicinėse architektūrose, todėl norint išnaudoti naująją architektūrą, reikia ieškoti būdų tobulinti esamus kompiliatorius. Vienas iš būdų – kompiliatoriaus vidinių parametrų atsakingų už optimizacijas reikšmių pritaikymas IA-64. Būtent toks yra šio darbo tikslas, kuriam pasiekti reikia išnagrinėti IA-64 savybes, jas vėliau eksperimentiškai taikyti realaus kodo pavyzdžiuose bei įvertinti jų įtaką kodo vykdymo spartai. Pagal gautus rezultatus nagrinėjami kompiliatoriaus vidiniai parametrai ir su specialia kompiliatorių testavimo programa randamas geriausias reikšmių rinkinys šiai architektūrai. Vėliau šis rinkinys išbandomas su taikomosiomis programomis. Gauto parametrų rinkinio reikšmės turėtų leisti generuoti efektyvesnį kodą IA-64 architektūrai. / After performance optimization of traditional architectures began to reach their limits, Intel corporation started to develop new architecture based on EPIC – Explicitly Parallel Instruction Counting. This main feature allowed up to six instructions to be executed in single CPU cycle. Also this architecture includes more features, which allowed efficient solution of traditional architectures code optimization problems. However for long time code optimization algorithms have been improved for traditional architectures only, as a result those algorithms should be adopted to new architecture. One of the ways to do that – exploration of internal compilers parameters, which are responsible for code optimizations. That is the primary target of this work and in order to reach it the features of the IA-64 architecture and impact to execution performance must be explored using real-life code examples. Tests results may be used later for internal parameters selection and further exploration of these parameters values by using special compiler performance testing benchmarks. The set of those new values could be tested with real life applications in order to prove efficiency of IA-64 architecture features.