Diese Dissertation konzentriert sich auf die Untersuchung schwieriger Demokratisierungsprozesse auf dem westlichen Balkan. Im Zentrum der Analyse steht die Frage, welche Faktore den Erfolg oder das Scheitern der „dreifachen Transformationen“ der Region beeinflussen. Die Forschungsfrage wird mit Hilfe des „most similar cases design“ durch den Vergleich der zwei ähnlichsten Fälle der Region, Kroatien und Serbien, untersucht. Diese beiden ehemaligen jugoslawischen Teilrepubliken teilen nicht nur eine gemeinsame sozialistische Vergangenheit, sondern auch eine Vielzahl ähnlicher sozioökonomische, kulturelle und strukturelle Merkmale. Die Identifizierung unterschiedlicher Entwicklungsmerkmale soll nicht nur die unterschiedlichen Transformationserfolge beider Länder erklären, sondern auch über die Einzelstudien hinaus Rückschlüsse auf den Verlauf anderer Transformationsprozesse erlauben. Die zentrale Hypothese der Arbeit ist, dass die Entwicklungsunterschiede auf der institutionelle Ebene erklärt werden können: während in Kroatien die Institutionalisierung der Demokratie weitgehend erfolgreich verlaufen ist, konnte in Serbien der Institutionalisierungsprozess nicht erfolgreich abgeschlossen werden. Um diese Hypothese empirisch zu belegen, konzentriert sich die Arbeit auf die Herausbildung der „Meta-Institution“ jedes Demokratisierungsprozesses; sie untersucht detailliert die Verfassungsgebungsprozesse beider Länder. Dabei steht im Zentrum des Interesses die Wechselwirkung zwischen den Akteuren, die neuen Institutionen und den institutionellen und strukturellen Bedingung, die den Handlungskorridor der Akteure prägen. Die Dissertation sieht die Erklärung für die unterschiedliche Entwicklung der Institutionalisierungsprozesse, und somit die Erklärung für den unterschiedlichen Transformationserfolg im Zusammenwirken der untersuchten Faktore. / The dissertation focuses on the analysis of difficult democratization processes on the western Balkans. The main question of analysis is what factors influence the success and failure of triple transformation processes in the region. The research question is investigated using the comparison of the two "most similar cases" in the region, namely Croatia and Serbia. These former Yugoslav Republics share not only a common socialist past, but also plenty of socio-economical, cultural and structural similarities. The identification of differing attributes allows not only the explantion of the dissimilar success of transformation in both countries, but also relevant conclusions on other transformation processes. The main hypothesis of the author is that the research question can be explained on the institutional level: while the institutionalization in Croatia was widely successful, the institutionalization process in Serbia was not finished successfully. To support this hypothesis empirically, the analysis focuses on the establishment of the “meta-institution” in the democrationzation process by investigating the development of the constitutional framework. In doing so, the core focus lies on the interplay of actors, new institutions and the institutional and structural preconditions forming the “action-corridor” of the main actors. For this analysis especially the interaction of the different factors seem relevant for the explanation of the research question.

Leopold von Ranke (1795-1886), considerado um dos mais importantes historiadores do século XIX e de toda a história da historiografia, produziu prolificamente durante toda sua carreira profissional, tendo como um de seus principais objetos de estudos a formação das nações ocidentais modernas e sendo conhecido por sua abordagem metodológica da História. Mas seu trabalho também pode ser uma fonte considerável de novos temas e interpretação, especialmente quando seus trabalhos menos conhecidos são tomados em consideração. A presente pesquisa analisa um tema ainda pouco explorado no trabalho de Ranke, ou seja, a posição desse historiador em relação aos grupos orientais através da interpretação das três edições (1829, 1844 e 1879) do seu livro A Revolução Sérvia (Die serbische Geschichte). Algumas características desses textos merecem destaque: 1) o período de cinquenta anos no qual Ranke trabalhou o texto torna possível o estudo do desenvolvimento de suas ideias; 2) trata-se do estudo de um tema contemporâneo, o que significa que Ranke a escreveu enquanto as ações que estudava ainda faziam parte do presente; 3) a obra tem caráter colaborativo, já que foi concebida pela união de Ranke e do Círculo Eslavo de Viena; 4) a forma com que Ranke descreveu os povos orientais (turco e sérvio) aponta para a relação entre essas noções e uma série de representações do Oriente, as quais estavam conectadas com ideias românticas bastante difundidas / Leopold von Ranke (1795-1886), considered one of the most important historians of the 19th century and of the whole history of historiography, produced prolifically during his entire professional carrier, having as one of his main objects the of study the formation of the Western Modern Nations and being famous for his historical methodological approach. But his work can also be a considerable source of new themes and new interpretations, especially when his less known books such as The Ottoman and the Spanish empires in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries or The Serbian Revolution are taken under consideration. This research analyses a theme somewhat yet to be explored in Rankes work, that is to say, the position of this historian in respect of oriental groups through the interpretation of the three editions (1829, 1844 and 1879) of his book The Serbian Revolution (Die serbische Geschichte). Some characteristics of this works deserve highlight: 1) the period of fifty years in which Ranke retook the text makes it possible to study the development of his ideas; 2) it is about the study of a contemporary theme, which means that Ranke wrote while the actions he studied still were part of the present; 3) the work has a collaborative nature, which was conceived by the union of Ranke and the Viennese Slavonian Circle; 4) the way Ranke described the eastern people (Turkish and Serbian) indicates the relation between these notions and a series of representations of the East, which were connected to widespread Romanticist ideas

<p>Ispitano je prisustvo toksičnih cijanobakterija u različitim ekosistemima sa teritorije&nbsp;Republike Srbije i analizirane su negativne posledice koje mogu da prouzrokuju ovi&nbsp;mikroorganizmi. Formirana je Baza podataka cijanobakterija u Srbiji koja prilaže veliki broj bitnih&nbsp; i korisnih informacija iz preko 70 literaturnih izvora o prostiranju i učestalosti pojave cijanobakterija i njihovih toksina u periodu od 130 godina, kao i njihovih efekata na živi svet u vodenim ekosistemima, ali i &scaron;ire. Istraživana su 64 vodena ekosistema, uključujući reke, jezera, bare, kanale, ribnjake, akumulacije za navodnjavanje, akumulacije za snabdevanje vodom za piće i akumulacije sa drugom namenom, gde je najče&scaron;će cvetalo pet vrsta cijanobakterija i to:&nbsp;<em> Microcystis aeruginosa,&nbsp; Aphanizomenon flos-aquae</em>,&nbsp; <em>Planktothrix agardhii,&nbsp; Microcystis flos-aquae</em>&nbsp; i<em>&nbsp; Planktothrix rubescens</em>&nbsp; koje ujedno i &scaron;ire svoj areal rasprostranjenja na teritoriji Republike Srbije. U brojnim vodenim telima detektovani su mikrocistini i to u visokim koncentracijama.</p><p>Istraživanje vodenog ekosistema Ludo&scaron; sa teritorije Republike Srbije vr&scaron;eno je da bi se ustanovilo prisustvo i uticaj cijanobakterija i cijanotoksina na druge biljne i životinjske organizme u prirodnim uslovima. Trofički status jezera Ludo&scaron; najče&scaron;će je eutrofan, a cvetanje cijanobakterija kontinuirano jo&scaron; od 1970. godine. Tokom 2011. i 2012. godine&nbsp; vrste<em> Limnothrix&nbsp; redekei&nbsp;</em> i&nbsp;<em> Pseudanabaena&nbsp; limnetica</em>&nbsp; nađene&nbsp; u&nbsp; cvetanju. Detektovano je i prisustvo mikrocistina/nodularina i saksitoksina u biomasi i vodi, a mikrocistini su detektovani i u tkivu vodenih biljaka (trske&nbsp;<em> Phragmites communis</em>, rogoza&nbsp; <em>Typha latifolia</em>&nbsp; i ljubičastog lokvanja<em> Nymphaea elegans</em>) i ribi (<em>Carassius gibelio</em>) iz jezera Ludo&scaron;. Histolo&scaron;kim pregledom tkiva ribe&nbsp; pronađene su naizraženije promene u jetri, bubrezima i &scaron;krgama, a primećene su i na crevima.</p><p>Testiranjem biolo&scaron;kih lesnih pokorica sa teritorije Vojvodine nisu detektovani&nbsp;mikrocistini/nodularini, a nije detektovana ni toksičnost uzoraka. Pretpostavlja se da su koncentracije cijanotoksina ispod granica detekcije ili ih nema u testiranim biolo&scaron;kim lesnim pokoricama. Razvojem novih metoda i optimizacijom postojećih za detekciju cijanotoksina u biolo&scaron;kim lesnim pokoricama i drugim terestričnim ekosistemima potrebno je proveriti dobijene rezultate.</p><p>Proučavanjem svojstva 84 soja cijanobakterija iz NSCCC, koji potiču iz terestričnih i&nbsp;vodenih ekosistema sa teritorije Republike Srbije, dobijena je intracelularna toksičnost u eksponencijalnoj i stacionarnoj fazi rasta, kao i ekstracelularna toksičnost &nbsp;kod jednog soja koji potiče sa terestričnog ekosistema. Dobijeni su i pozitivni rezultati &nbsp;na prisustvo mikrocistina, nodularina ili/i saksitoksina kod 34,1% terestričnih i 55,5% vodenih sojeva koji potiču sa teritorije Republike Srbije. Rezultati ukazuju na&nbsp; potencijalnu opasnost pojave ovih&nbsp; mikroorganizama i njihovih toksičnih metabolita u različitim ekosistemima sa teritorije Republike Srbije.</p><p>Eksperimentalno je potvrđena akumulacija mikrocistina u račiću<em>&nbsp; Daphnia pulex&nbsp; </em>usled ishrane toksičnim sojem iz NSCCC, zbog čega upotreba ove vrste račića u izvođenju biolo&scaron;kih testova za testiranje prisustva cijanotoksina treba da se preispita.&nbsp; &Scaron;tavi&scaron;e, veliki broj jedinki dafnija (92,2%) koristio je istraživane sojeve iz NSCCC za ishranu, odnosno ishrana je bila moguća sa svim vodenim i sa gotovo 90% terestričnih sojeva, &scaron;to može poslužiti kao osnov za dalja istraživanja prevencije cvetanja.</p><p>S obzirom na mogućnost ishrane račića&nbsp;<em> Daphnia&nbsp; sp</em>. cijanobakterijama, kompleks&nbsp;<br />ribnjaka sa teritorije Republike Srbije kori&scaron;ćen je za istraživanje potencijalnog načina&nbsp;<br />prevencije pojave i cvetanja cijanobakterija u zavisnosti od pravovremenog uno&scaron;enja&nbsp;<br />pomenutog račića. Na osnovu koncentracije hlorofila&nbsp; a&nbsp; i trofičkog statusa,&nbsp; kvalitativne i kvantitativne analize cijanobakterija, toksičnosti vode&nbsp; i prisustva cijanotoksina mikrocistina/nodularina i saksitoksina, potvrđeno je smanjenje cvetanja cijanobakterija i drugih negativnih efekata u eksperimentalnim jezerima u odnosu na kontrolna. Ukoliko pak dođe do cvetanja i proizvodnje toksina&nbsp; ijanobakterija u vodenim ekosistemima, zbog ozbiljnost pojave i mogućih negativnih posledica po zdravlje ljudi, neohodno je uvesti postupke eliminacije ćelija&nbsp; cijanobakterija i njihovih &nbsp;toksina u praksu pri obradi&nbsp; otpadnih voda i preči&scaron;ćavanja vode iz povr&scaron;inskih akumulacija u Republici Srbiji.</p> / <p>The presence of toxic&nbsp; cyanobacteria in different ecosystems from the territory of the Republic of Serbia was analyzed as well as the negative consequences that may be causeed by these microorganisms. Serbian Cyanobacterial Data Base was formed where great number of important and useful information from over 70 literary sources regarding the distribution and frequency of cyanobacteria and their toxins over a period of 130 years, as well as their effects on wildlife in aquatic ecosystems, and beyond was presented. The study consisted of 64 aquatic ecosystems, including rivers, lakes, ponds, canals, irrigation reservoirs, reservoirs for drinking water supply and reservoirs with other purpose, where five species of cyanobacteria <em>Microcystis aeruginosa,&nbsp; Aphanizomenon flos-aquae,&nbsp; Planktothrix agardhii,&nbsp; Microcystis flosaquae&nbsp;</em> and&nbsp; <em>Planktothrix rubescens</em>&nbsp; frequently bloomed, and also expanded their area of distribution on the territory of the Republic of Serbia. In many water bodies microcystins were detected in high concentrations.</p><p>Research into aquatic ecosystem Ludo&scaron;, located on the territory of the Republic of Serbia, was performed in order to determine the presence and effect of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins on other plant and animal organisms in natural conditions. Trophic status of&nbsp; the lake Ludo&scaron; was usually eutrophic, and cyanobacteria bloom is constant since 1970. During 2011 and 2012, the species <em>Limnothrix&nbsp; redekei</em>&nbsp; and&nbsp; <em>Pseudanabaena&nbsp; limnetica&nbsp;</em> were found in blooming. Presence of microcystins/nodularin and saxitoxin was detected in&nbsp; biomass and water, and microcystins were detected in tissues of aquatic plants (reed <em>Phragmites communis,</em> cattail&nbsp;<em>Typha latifolia&nbsp;</em>and royalblue waterlily&nbsp; <em>Nymphaea elegans</em>) and fish (<em>Carassius gibelio</em>) from the lake Ludo&scaron;. Histological examination of tissue showed most prominent changes in liver, kidney and gills, and alterations were also observed in the intestine.</p><p>Testing of the biological loess crust from Vojvodina showed no presence of microcystins/nodularin and toxicity of samples was not detected as well. It is assumed that cyanotoxin concentrations were below detection limit or are absent from the tested biological loess crusts. The development of new methods and optimization of existing ones for detection of cyanotoxins in biological loess crustsand&nbsp; other terrestrial ecosystems is necessary in order to revise obtained results.</p><p>Research of the properties from 84 strains of cyanobacteria from NSCCC originating&nbsp;from terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems from the territory of the Republic of &nbsp;Serbia, resulte d inintracellular toxicity in exponential and stationary growth phase, as &nbsp;well as extracellular toxicity of a strain originating from terrestrial ecosystems. The obtained results were positive for the presence of microcystins, nodularin and/or saxitoxin&nbsp; for 34.1% terrestrial and 55.5% aquatic strains originating from the territory of the Republic of Serbia. These results demonstrate the potential risk of occurrence of these microorganisms and their metabolites in different ecosystems from the territory of the Republic of Serbia.</p><p>Accumulation of microcystins in shrimp <em>Daphnia pulex</em>&nbsp;after feeding with toxic strain&nbsp;from NSCCC was experimentally confirmed, indicating that the use of this species of shrimp in biological tests which determine the presence of cyanotoxins needs to be revisited. Moreover, a large number of&nbsp;<em>Daphnia&nbsp; individuals </em>(92.2%) used the investigated strains of NSCCC for food, and the feeding was possible with all &nbsp;the water strains and nearly 90% of terrestrial strains, which can serve as a basis for further research of bloom prevention.</p><p>With regard to the possibility shrimp <em>Daphnia&nbsp;</em>sp. feeding with cyanobacteria, a&nbsp;complex of ponds from the territory of the Republic of Serbia was used to explore &nbsp;potential ways of prevention the occurrence and blooming of cyanobacteria, depending on the timely introduction of the aforementioned shrimp. Based on the concentrations of chlorophyll&nbsp; a&nbsp; and trophic status, qualitative and quantitative analysis of cyanobacteria, the toxicity of water and the presence of&nbsp; cyanotoxins microcystins/nodularin and saxitoxin, reduction in blooming cyanobacteria and other negative effects in the experimental lakes when compared to the control lakes was confirmed. If the blooming regardless occurres as well as production of cyanobacterial &nbsp;toxins in aquatic ecosystems, due to the seriousness of the phenomenon and the possible negative consequences for human health, it would be necessary to introduce &nbsp;procedures for the elimination of cells of cyanobacteria and their toxins into practice in waste water treatment and purification of water from surface reservoirs in the Republic of Serbia.</p>

Content of this thesis is comparison of Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia from following points of view - development after disintegration of common state, their transformation processes and accession negotiations with the European Union. It explains the reasons for current different positions of compared states and brings forecasts for their future development.

Serbia is said to enter the European Union (EU) in 2025 and a criteria for inclusion in the EU are the Copenhagen criteria’s. The purpose of this thesis is to examine how the EU as an external and international actor acts to further the implementation of the first Copenhagen criteria concerning democratic institutions, the rule of law, human rights and protection of minorities. Through a qualitative theory consuming study this thesis investigates the EUs aims and actions in Serbia, a country outside the boards of the EU by applying a theoretical framework based on Lawrence Whiteheads theory on international dimensions of democratization. As a result the thesis finds that the European Union has an interest in democracy promotion in Serbia as defined in the Copenhagen criteria. The EU uses several different methods such as economic aid, learning resources, diplomacy and normative contagion to attain its purpose. But the true reason behind the EUs interest is Serbia is discussed among scholars as well as the effective ways of implementing EUs strategies and the development of sanctions against states that do not comply with the democratic values of the Copenhagen criteria.

<p>Предмет ових истраживања су анализа кретања и будуће тенденције производних и економских параметара значајнијих врста поврћа, односно површина, приноса, укупне производње, цена и паритета цена у Србији и Војводини.<br />Oсновни циљ истраживања је да се формулишу квантитативни модели запредвиђање површина, приноса, укупне производње, цена и паритета цена важнијих врста поврћа у Србији и Војводини, на основу анализе одговарајућих временских серија. Предвиђањем су обухваћени: кромпир, грашак, пасуљ, парадајз, паприка, краставац,мрква, црни лук, бели лук икупус и кељ. Период предвиђања је 2011-2015 година.<br />Примењене статистичке методе у овом раду су методе дескриптивне анализе и аналитичке статистичке методе. Методе дескриптивне статистике примењене су за анализу наведених обележја у повртарству у периоду 1991-2010. године. Ту спадају основни статистички показатељи: просечна вредност појаве, екстремне вредности (минимум и максимум), коефицијент варијације и стопа промене.<br />У сврху предвиђања посматраних појава коришћенје метод анализе временских серија, односно примењени суARIMA модели, који се базирају на анализи временских серија. Анализа временских серија обухватила је наведена производна и економска обележја повртарста за двадесет година, а предвиђање ће се односити на наредни петогодишњи период, 2011-15. година.<br />Претпоставка да се очекује повећање површина, приноса и укупне производње поврћа, што ће допринети бржем општем развоју националне пољопривреде, у раду је делимично потврђена.Предвиђања показују да ће се површине под поврћем и у Србији и у Војводини смањивати у предикционом периоду, и то како у апсолутном износу, тако релативно, односно заступљености у ораницама. На крају периода предвиђања површине под поврћем у Србији биће на нивоу од 258.000 хектара, што је значајније мање од просека у анализираном периоду (1991-2010), 302.700ха. Смањиће се и учешће површина под поврћем у ораницама, на 7,56%, док је у анализираном периоду то учешће изноисило 8,68%. У Војводини ће површине под поврћем опасти на ниво од 60.000 хектара (просечно је било 79.000 ха), односно њихово учешће у ораницама са просечних 5% у анализираном периоду, смањиће се на 3,82% у последњој години<br />V<br />предвиђања.<br />За разлику од површина, претпоставка о повећању приноса и производње је углавном доказана. У Србији повећаваће се приноси пет (од десет) врста поврћа (кромпира, паприке, мркве, црног и белог лука), принос једне врсте ће стагнирати (грашак), а четири врста ће опадати (пасуљ, парадајз, краставац и купус). У Војводини повећаваће се приноси шест врста поврћа (грашка, краставца, мркве, црног и белог лука и купуса), стагнираће принос кромпира, а опадати приноси три врсте поврћа (пасуља, парадајза и паприке).<br />У Србији ће доћи до раста производње пет повртарских култура (кромпира, грашка, паприке, мркве и белог лука), а код осталих пет предвиђа се пад производње (пасуљ, парадајз, краставац, црни лук и купус). У Војводини ће доћи до раста производње исто код пет култура (грашка, паприке, краставца, мркве и купуса), стагнације производње црног и белог лука, а смањења производње код три врсте поврћа (кромпира, пасуља и парадајза).<br />Претпоставка да предвиђање производно-економских обележја у повртарству доприноси квалитетнијем макро и микро економском планирању развоја повртарства је потврђена чињеницом да је квантитативно доказано да различите врсте поврћа имају различите тенденције у будућности, и када су у питању производни, и када су у питању економски параметри. Такође, те разлике се односе и на територију за коју се предвиђа, Србију, односно Војводину. Различита предвиђања узрокују и различита планирања, односно различите механизме за њихову регулацију.<br />Претпоставка да применаквантитативних методаи модела обезбеђује коректну анализу стања посматраних појава ипружа основу за реално предвиђање у будућем периоду, је доказана чињеницом да су у раду успешно примењена 82 модела за предвиђање, и то: 2 за предвиђање ораница у Србији и Војводини, 4 за предвиђање апсолутних површина поврћа и и њиховог учешћа у ораницама, 30 за производне параметре заначајнијих врста поврћа у Србији и исто толико у Војводини, и 12 за предвиђање апсолутних и релативних цена шест значајнијих врста поврћа. Успешност примене модела манифестује се у статистички значајним утицајима појава из претходног периода код велике већине модела. Веома је мали број модела код којих је значајан само утицај случајних просеса, или није статистички значајна вредност из претходног периода.<br />Претпоставка да су методе дескриптивне и аналитичке статистике адекватне за испитивање и реално предвиђање посматраних појава у повртарству у складу је са претходном хипотезом, а огледа се у сличности уочених тенденција у претходном периоду, који су анализирани методама дескриптивне статистике, са резултатима предвиђања применом АРИМА модела у наредном периоду. Ни један модел предвиђања нема нелогичне резултате.<br />Код доказивања претпоставка да реално предвиђање омогућава доношење рационалних одлука везаних за развој повртарства у Србији и Војводини од великог су заначаја резултати предвиђања економских (ценовних) параметара производње поједних врста поврћа. Реалне, дисконтоване цене поврћа на 1994. годину, помоћу индекса цена на мало, имаће различите тенденције. Релативно стабилне цене имаће кромпир, пасуљ, црни лук и купус. Парадајз ће имати тенденцију раста цене, а паприка пада. Значи, апсолутни ценовни услови биће стабилни за четири врсте поврћа, у једном случају доћи ће до побољшања и у<br />VI<br />једном до погршања ценовних услова.<br />Релативне цене, односно паритети цена поврћа према пшеници, као индикатор релативног економског положаја поврћа према другим, конкурентним ратарским усевима, имали су сличне тенденције као и апсолутне, дисконтоване цене. Стагнацију паритета, као и цена, имаће црни лук и купус. Благо побољшање паритет, уз изражене осцилације, имаће кромпир и пасуљ, док ће се паритети парадајз и паприке понашати исто као и дисконтоване цене- парадајза побољшавати, а папарике погоршавати.<br />Коришћење адекватнихметода и модела анализе и предвиђања пружа могућност да се предвиде величина и структураповртарске производње у Србији и Војводини.Доћи ће до промене сетвене структуре повртарске производње, смањиће се укупне површине под поврћем, али ће се повећати интензивност производње код већине анализираних култура, што ће се позитивно одразити на повећање приноса и годишње производње.</p> / <p>Predmet ovih istraživanja su analiza kretanja i buduće tendencije proizvodnih i ekonomskih parametara značajnijih vrsta povrća, odnosno površina, prinosa, ukupne proizvodnje, cena i pariteta cena u Srbiji i Vojvodini.<br />Osnovni cilj istraživanja je da se formulišu kvantitativni modeli zapredviđanje površina, prinosa, ukupne proizvodnje, cena i pariteta cena važnijih vrsta povrća u Srbiji i Vojvodini, na osnovu analize odgovarajućih vremenskih serija. Predviđanjem su obuhvaćeni: krompir, grašak, pasulj, paradajz, paprika, krastavac,mrkva, crni luk, beli luk ikupus i kelj. Period predviđanja je 2011-2015 godina.<br />Primenjene statističke metode u ovom radu su metode deskriptivne analize i analitičke statističke metode. Metode deskriptivne statistike primenjene su za analizu navedenih obeležja u povrtarstvu u periodu 1991-2010. godine. Tu spadaju osnovni statistički pokazatelji: prosečna vrednost pojave, ekstremne vrednosti (minimum i maksimum), koeficijent varijacije i stopa promene.<br />U svrhu predviđanja posmatranih pojava korišćenje metod analize vremenskih serija, odnosno primenjeni suARIMA modeli, koji se baziraju na analizi vremenskih serija. Analiza vremenskih serija obuhvatila je navedena proizvodna i ekonomska obeležja povrtarsta za dvadeset godina, a predviđanje će se odnositi na naredni petogodišnji period, 2011-15. godina.<br />Pretpostavka da se očekuje povećanje površina, prinosa i ukupne proizvodnje povrća, što će doprineti bržem opštem razvoju nacionalne poljoprivrede, u radu je delimično potvrđena.Predviđanja pokazuju da će se površine pod povrćem i u Srbiji i u Vojvodini smanjivati u predikcionom periodu, i to kako u apsolutnom iznosu, tako relativno, odnosno zastupljenosti u oranicama. Na kraju perioda predviđanja površine pod povrćem u Srbiji biće na nivou od 258.000 hektara, što je značajnije manje od proseka u analiziranom periodu (1991-2010), 302.700ha. Smanjiće se i učešće površina pod povrćem u oranicama, na 7,56%, dok je u analiziranom periodu to učešće iznoisilo 8,68%. U Vojvodini će površine pod povrćem opasti na nivo od 60.000 hektara (prosečno je bilo 79.000 ha), odnosno njihovo učešće u oranicama sa prosečnih 5% u analiziranom periodu, smanjiće se na 3,82% u poslednjoj godini<br />V<br />predviđanja.<br />Za razliku od površina, pretpostavka o povećanju prinosa i proizvodnje je uglavnom dokazana. U Srbiji povećavaće se prinosi pet (od deset) vrsta povrća (krompira, paprike, mrkve, crnog i belog luka), prinos jedne vrste će stagnirati (grašak), a četiri vrsta će opadati (pasulj, paradajz, krastavac i kupus). U Vojvodini povećavaće se prinosi šest vrsta povrća (graška, krastavca, mrkve, crnog i belog luka i kupusa), stagniraće prinos krompira, a opadati prinosi tri vrste povrća (pasulja, paradajza i paprike).<br />U Srbiji će doći do rasta proizvodnje pet povrtarskih kultura (krompira, graška, paprike, mrkve i belog luka), a kod ostalih pet predviđa se pad proizvodnje (pasulj, paradajz, krastavac, crni luk i kupus). U Vojvodini će doći do rasta proizvodnje isto kod pet kultura (graška, paprike, krastavca, mrkve i kupusa), stagnacije proizvodnje crnog i belog luka, a smanjenja proizvodnje kod tri vrste povrća (krompira, pasulja i paradajza).<br />Pretpostavka da predviđanje proizvodno-ekonomskih obeležja u povrtarstvu doprinosi kvalitetnijem makro i mikro ekonomskom planiranju razvoja povrtarstva je potvrđena činjenicom da je kvantitativno dokazano da različite vrste povrća imaju različite tendencije u budućnosti, i kada su u pitanju proizvodni, i kada su u pitanju ekonomski parametri. Takođe, te razlike se odnose i na teritoriju za koju se predviđa, Srbiju, odnosno Vojvodinu. Različita predviđanja uzrokuju i različita planiranja, odnosno različite mehanizme za njihovu regulaciju.<br />Pretpostavka da primenakvantitativnih metodai modela obezbeđuje korektnu analizu stanja posmatranih pojava ipruža osnovu za realno predviđanje u budućem periodu, je dokazana činjenicom da su u radu uspešno primenjena 82 modela za predviđanje, i to: 2 za predviđanje oranica u Srbiji i Vojvodini, 4 za predviđanje apsolutnih površina povrća i i njihovog učešća u oranicama, 30 za proizvodne parametre zanačajnijih vrsta povrća u Srbiji i isto toliko u Vojvodini, i 12 za predviđanje apsolutnih i relativnih cena šest značajnijih vrsta povrća. Uspešnost primene modela manifestuje se u statistički značajnim uticajima pojava iz prethodnog perioda kod velike većine modela. Veoma je mali broj modela kod kojih je značajan samo uticaj slučajnih prosesa, ili nije statistički značajna vrednost iz prethodnog perioda.<br />Pretpostavka da su metode deskriptivne i analitičke statistike adekvatne za ispitivanje i realno predviđanje posmatranih pojava u povrtarstvu u skladu je sa prethodnom hipotezom, a ogleda se u sličnosti uočenih tendencija u prethodnom periodu, koji su analizirani metodama deskriptivne statistike, sa rezultatima predviđanja primenom ARIMA modela u narednom periodu. Ni jedan model predviđanja nema nelogične rezultate.<br />Kod dokazivanja pretpostavka da realno predviđanje omogućava donošenje racionalnih odluka vezanih za razvoj povrtarstva u Srbiji i Vojvodini od velikog su zanačaja rezultati predviđanja ekonomskih (cenovnih) parametara proizvodnje pojednih vrsta povrća. Realne, diskontovane cene povrća na 1994. godinu, pomoću indeksa cena na malo, imaće različite tendencije. Relativno stabilne cene imaće krompir, pasulj, crni luk i kupus. Paradajz će imati tendenciju rasta cene, a paprika pada. Znači, apsolutni cenovni uslovi biće stabilni za četiri vrste povrća, u jednom slučaju doći će do poboljšanja i u<br />VI<br />jednom do pogršanja cenovnih uslova.<br />Relativne cene, odnosno pariteti cena povrća prema pšenici, kao indikator relativnog ekonomskog položaja povrća prema drugim, konkurentnim ratarskim usevima, imali su slične tendencije kao i apsolutne, diskontovane cene. Stagnaciju pariteta, kao i cena, imaće crni luk i kupus. Blago poboljšanje paritet, uz izražene oscilacije, imaće krompir i pasulj, dok će se pariteti paradajz i paprike ponašati isto kao i diskontovane cene- paradajza poboljšavati, a paparike pogoršavati.<br />Korišćenje adekvatnihmetoda i modela analize i predviđanja pruža mogućnost da se predvide veličina i strukturapovrtarske proizvodnje u Srbiji i Vojvodini.Doći će do promene setvene strukture povrtarske proizvodnje, smanjiće se ukupne površine pod povrćem, ali će se povećati intenzivnost proizvodnje kod većine analiziranih kultura, što će se pozitivno odraziti na povećanje prinosa i godišnje proizvodnje.</p> / <p>The topic of this research is the analysis of the trends and future tendencies of the production and economic parameters of some of the more important vegetable crops, i.e. the cropland, yield, total output, prices and parity prices in Serbia and Vojvodina.<br />The main aim of the research is to formulate quantitative models for the forecast of the cropland, yield, total output, prices and parity prices of the significant vegetable crops in Serbia and Vojvodina, based on the analysis of the appropriate time series. The prediction covers the following: potato, peas, beans, tomato, pepper, cucumber, carrot, onion, garlic, cabbage and kale. The forecast period is 2011-2015.<br />The statistical methods used in this case study are the methods of descriptive analysis and the analytical and statistical methods. The methods of descriptive statistics are employed in the analysis of the obtained characteristics of the vegetable farming from 1991-2010. The primary statistical indicators are: the average value of the phenomenon, the extreme values (minimum and maximum), the coefficient of variation and the rate of change.<br />With the goal of forecasting the observed phenomena, we have used the method of time series analysis, i.e. ARIMA models based on the time series analysis have been applied. The time series analysis has encompassed the obtained production and economic characteristics of the vegetable farming during the twenty-year period, and the prediction refers to the future five-year period, 2011-2015.<br />The expectation of the growth in the cropland, yield and total output of the vegetable crops, which would contribute to the faster overall development of the national agriculture, is partly acknowledged in this paper. The predictions indicate that the land under vegetables in Serbia and Vojvodina will shrink in the forecast period, in both absolute and relative values, i.e. its part in the arable land will decrease. At the end of the forecast period, the land under vegetables in Serbia will cover 258.000 hectares, which represents significantly less than the average in the analyzed period (1991-2010), 302.700 ha. The land under vegetables, as part of the arable land, will also decrease to 7.56%, while it formed 8.68% in the analyzed period. In Vojvodina, the areas under vegetables will drop to 60.000 hectares (the average was 79.000 ha), i.e. their part in the arable land with the average 5% in the analyzed period will decrease to 3.82% in the last year of the forecast.<br />Unlike the cropland, the forecast about the increase in the yield and output is mainly<br />X<br />proven. In Serbia, the yield of five (out of ten) vegetable species will go up (potato, pepper, carrot, onion and garlic), the yield of one species will stagnate (peas), and of four will decrease (beans, tomato, cucumber and cabbage). In Vojvodina, the yield of six vegetable crops will increase (peas, cucumber, carrot, onion, garlic and cabbage), the potato yield will be at a standstill, while the yield of three vegetable crops will decrease (beans, tomato and pepper).<br />In Serbia, there will be a production growth with five vegetable crops (potato, peas, pepper, carrot and garlic), and the remaining five crops show a downward trend in the production(beans, tomato, cucumber, onion and cabbage). In Vojvodina, a rise in the production of five species is predicted as well (peas, pepper, cucumber, carrot and cabbage), stagnation in the production of onion and garlic, and a fall in the production of three vegetable crops (potato, beans and tomato) is forecast.<br />The assumption that the forecast of the production-economic characteristics in vegetable farming contributes to the high-grade macro and micro-economic planning in the development of vegetable farming is acknowledged by the fact that it has been quantitatively proven that different vegetable species have different future tendencies, concerning both production and economic parameters. Furthermore, these variations relate to the territory for which the predictions are made, Serbia, i.e. Vojvodina. Different predictions lead to different planning, i.e. different mechanisms for their regulation.<br />The idea that the use of quantitative methods and models ensures a noteworthy analysis of the condition of the observed phenomena and provides basis for the realistic forecast in the future period, is proven by the fact that in this research we have successfully used 82 forecast models, namely: 2 models for the prediction of the arable land in Serbia and Vojvodina, 4 for the prediction of the absolute area under vegetables and its part in the arable land, 30 for production parameters of the important vegetable species in Serbia, and the same number of models is used in Vojvodina, and 12 for the forecast of absolute and relative prices of the six significant vegetable crops. The success of the models manifests itself in the statistically significant effect of the phenomena from the previous period with the great majority of models. The number of models which are significantly affected by incidental processes only or whose value from the previous period is not statistically relevant is very low.<br />The belief that the methods of descriptive and analytic statistics are adequate for the examining and the real forecast of the observed phenomena in vegetable farming is in accordance with the previous hypothesis. It is reflected in the similarities between the tendencies from the previous period, which are analyzed by the methods of descriptive statistics, and the results of the prediction which used ARIMA models in the following period. No prediction model has illogical results.<br />When proving the assumptions that the real forecast facilitates making rational decisions connected to the vegetable farming development in Serbia and Vojvodina, the outcome of the forecast of the economic (price) production parameters of certain vegetable crops performs a major role. The real, discounted vegetable prices compared to the year 1994, using the consumer price index, will have different trends. Potato, beans, onion and cabbage will have relatively stable prices. Tomato will show an upward trend, whereas pepper will indicate a downward one. Therefore, the absolute price conditions will be stable with four vegetable species, in one case there will be improvement, while in another a downturn in the price conditions will be noticed.<br />XI<br />The relative prices, i.e. the parity prices of vegetables with wheat, as an indicator of the relative economic position of vegetables towards other, competitive arable crops, had tendencies similar to absolute, discounted prices. Onion and cabbage will show the stagnation of parity and prices. Potato and beans will have a slight increase in parity, with significant oscillations, whereas the parity of tomato and pepper will act the same as discounted prices &ndash; it will increase with tomato and decrease with pepper.<br />The implementation of the adequate methods and models for analysis and prediction creates an opportunity to predict the volume and structure of vegetable production in Serbia and Vojvodina. The sowing structure of the vegetable production will change, the total land under vegetables will decrease, but the production intensity of the majority of the analyzed crops will grow, whic</p>

The problem of violence against women in Serbia is connected with the position that women hold inside of the discourse of family and society in general. Also, the general atmosphere in media implies the lack of media freedom, specific structural organization, and ownership relations in media companies. From this starting point, this paper investigates how different newspapers in Serbia are reporting about violence against women. This study outlines the most common topics and social actors that are represented inside of the articles. The analysis is divided in two parts. A content analysis of the five different newspapers in Serbia (Kurir, Blic, Vecernje Novosti, Politika and Danas) and critical discourse analysis of the most relevant articles inside of those. Part of the study is devoted to identify how these articles are most commonly framed among the chosen newspapers. Another part of the study looks at the comparison of the newspapers, with special emphasis on the social actors and the way they are represented among the articles. Results showed that newspapers report on violence against women differently when it comes to the category of frame. Most commonly used frame among overall sample is human interest frame which implies reports connected to the individual cases of violence against women that often generate feelings of outrage, empathy, caring, sympathy, or compassion. The background of the cases is almost in all of the articles used to portray the human-interest perspective. The reports are somewhat similar when it comes to the way how social actors are represented in the articles. For example, in the analyzed articles it is most often that the victims are presented as passive agents. The discourse of guilt around the social actors is often shared between the perpetrator and the victim. According to the latest statistics, eight women were killed during the first 58 days of 2018. Thus, practical implication of this study is to potentially point out more and less effective ways for Serbian news media to approach this serious social issue in the future.

<p>Disertacija se bavi utvrđivanjem smera i intenziteta<br />uticaja informacionih tehnologija na pojedine<br />organizacione i poslovne performanse u preduzećima<br />u Srbiji. Pri tme su posmatrane sledeće performanse:<br />zadovoljstvo poslom, zadovoljstvo komunikacijom, organizaciona posvećenost, međusobno poverenje na<br />poslu, organizacionoo učenje, finansijske<br />performanse i profesionalni respekt prema lideru.<br />Istraživanje je realizovano u preduzećima u Srbiji,<br />tako &scaron;to su ispitanici (srednji menadžeri) popunili<br />upitnike. Za istraživanje su kori&scaron;ćeni odgovori od<br />ukupno N = 380 srednjih menadžera iz 102<br />preduzeća. Najvažniji rezultati istraživanja su sledeći:<br />1. Utvrđen je postojeći nivo savremenosti i primene<br />informacionih tehnologija, kao i nivo pažnje koja se<br />poklanja informacionim tehnologijama, u<br />preduzećima u Srbiji. 2. Utvrđeno je stanje<br />informacionih tehnologija u zavisnosti od nekoliko<br />kriterijuma: pol CEO, godine CEO, vlasnička<br />struktura preduzeća, finansijske performanse, profesionalni respekt prema lideru i poverenje u<br />akcije menadžmenta. 3. Utvrđeno je da su<br />informacione tehnologije pokazatelj nivoa<br />posmatranih organizacionih i poslovnih performansi.<br />4. Utvrđeno je da postoji statistički značajan uticaj<br />informacionih tehnologija na posmatrane<br />organizacione i poslovne performanse. 5. Ispitana su i<br />definisana moderatorna dejstva tri moderatora:<br />Profesionalni respekt prema lideru, Poverenje u<br />akcije menadžmenta i Vlasnička struktura preduzeća, na odnos informacionih tehnologija i zadovoljstva<br />komunikacijom i organizacionog učenja. 6. Definisane su preporuke za lidere i menadžere u vezi<br />sa tim kako unaprediti performanse preduzeća,<br />posmatrano iz perspektive informacionih tehnologija<br />i njihove primene.</p> / <p>The dissertation deals with determining the direction<br />and intensity of the impact of information<br />technologies on individual and organizational<br />performance of companies in Serbia. Observed are<br />the following performances: job satisfaction,<br />communication satisfaction, organizational<br />commitment, mutual trust at work, organizational<br />learning, financial performance and professional<br />respect for the leader. The survey was conducted in<br />companies in Serbia, by the respondents (middle<br />managers) completing questionnaires. For the study<br />there were used responses from a total of N = 380<br />middle managers from 102 companies. The most<br />important results of the research are as follows: 1.<br />Defined is the current level of modernity and<br />application of information technologies, as well as the<br />level of attention paid to information technologies in<br />companies in Serbia. 2. Defined is the situation of<br />information technologies depending on several<br />criteria: gender of the CEO, age of the CEO, the<br />ownership structure of the company, financial<br />performance, professional respect for the leader and<br />trust in the actions of management. 3. It is found that<br />information technologies are an indicator of the level<br />of the observed organizational and business<br />performance. 4. It is found that there is a statistically<br />significant impact of information technologies on the<br />observed organizational and business performance. 5. Tested and defined are the moderating effects of three<br />moderators: professional respect for the leader, trust<br />in the action of management and ownership structure<br />of the company, on the relationship of information<br />technologies and communication satisfaction and<br />organizational learning. 6. There are defined<br />recommendations for leaders and managers in this<br />regard to improve the performance of the company,<br />from the perspective of information technologies and<br />their application.</p>

This thesis is a qualitative analysis of the international legal response to rape as war crime in the former Yugoslavia. Through the examination of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) and the case law it has generated, this thesis addresses the question will the androcentric characteristics of law found in domestic rape cases be replicated at the international level? More specifically this thesis undertakes an examination which questions will international law be able to adequately amplify and listen to women voices, or will the women’s words be silenced by the rule of law? The following research is loosely informed by Carol Smart’s (1989) sociology of law theory combined with Liz Kelly’s (1988) notions of coping, resisting, and surviving. The purpose of using Kelly’s theory is to go beyond viewing women as inevitable victims of sexual assault. The methodological approach is both qualitative and inductive. It draws on data from the ICTY structure, Statute, Rules of Procedures and Evidence, case law and transcripts and women’s stories presented outside the legal realm. The analysis reveals that while written law (including the interpretation and application of the law) is somewhat aware of the experiences of women, it falls short of adequately responding to the needs of women. A detailed look at the women’s stories of war revealed diverse experiences not captured in the legal realm. The women’s stories spoke of concerns beyond sexual assault and other crimes identified by the ICTY Statute. This thesis also introduces alternatives or complimentary approaches to law when dealing with war crimes. These alternatives include women’s local groups and truth commissions. This thesis also identifies the criminological relevance of studying war crimes (as defined by international law) and crimes of war and marks an important step in understanding rape and war from a criminological perspective. / February 2005

Exploration of the influence that politics may have on artists’ creativity has been undertaken by looking at selected works of Yugoslav film director Aleksandar Petrović. An attempt was made to identify thematic or stylistic motifs in his films that could be understood as reflections on the political context in which the work was made. One of the most common approaches to examine a work of one filmmaker, the auteur theory, has been modified into the theory of political auteur, to aid in identifying recurrent motifs and themes that artists introduce in their work as a reaction to the surrounding political reality. As Petrović worked in Yugoslavia during Socialism, this period was historicised in order to support the identification of ‘political motifs’ in his films. The period between 1965 and 1973 is taken as the focus of research, since it is known as the 'liberal hour', the period of great artistic and intellectual freedoms, during which Petrović directed four of his most significant films. Each of these four films is analysed in respective chapters, first by elaborating on the then current political background, and then by analysing the films’ narratives against it, and extrapolating thematic and stylistic motifs reflecting back on this background. Such exploration of art and politics has been undertaken with a view to emphasise consistent motifs in art works, not only to do with an artist’s personal interests, but also those that emerge as a result of imposing societal structures.