[pt] Muito freqüentemente, as técnicas utilizadas na identificação de processos estocásticos conduzem a mais de um modelo passível de ser utilizado na caracterização do processo. O problema de escolher entre estes modelos é formulado como um problema de teste de hipóteses, e o teste de razão de verossimilhança é a ele aplicado. Considera-se então a situação particular onde se quer descrever processos de parâmetro discreto (séries temporais) através de modelos ARIMA (autoregressive Integrated Moving Average). O teste de razão de verossimilhança associado ao problema é então deduzido e implementado através do algoritmo de Kalman-Bucy. Comparações com um outro teste usualmente empregado na escolha de modelos para séries temporais mostram a superioridade do teste de razão de verossimilhança. / [en] Very often random process identification techniques lead to several prospective models to characterize the process. The problem of choosing among these models is cast as a hypothesis testing problem, to which a likelihood ratio test is applied. For the special situation in which a choice between two autoregressive integrated moving average models is to made, likelihood ratio is derived and afterwards implemented through the Kalman-Bucy algorithm. Comparisons with another procedure usually connected to time series model choices show likelihood ratio tests are definetely superior.

[pt] As fontes renováveis de energia tem adquirido grande relevância no contexto mundial devido as diretrizes tomadas pelas políticas globais. Embora sejam termoelétricas, as usinas a biomassa são consideradas fontes de energia renováveis por manter os níveis de gás carbônico na atmosfera. Além disso, as usinas termoelétricas têm mais autonomia na geração do que as demais fontes renováveis como hidrelétricas, eólicas e solares que dependem de incertezas como vazões de água, velocidade do vento e irradiação solar, respectivamente. Este conjunto de características torna a biomassa uma fonte de energia indispensável para futuros planejamentos de operação do sistema. No entanto, esta fonte apresenta períodos intermitentes por estar usualmente atrelada a cultura de cana-de-açúcar. Poucos são os estudos de previsão e simulação desta fonte de energia. Dessa forma, a dissertação visa a implementação do modelo de cadeias de Markov com simulações de Monte Carlo. / [en] Renewable energy sources have acquired great relevance in the world context due to the guidelines taken by global policies. Although they are thermoelectric, biomass power plants are considered renewable energy sources because they maintain the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In addition, thermoelectric plants have more autonomy in generation than other renewable sources such as hydro, wind and solar, which depend on uncertainties such as water flow, wind speed and solar irradiation, respectively. This set of characteristics makes biomass an indispensable energy source for future system operation planning. However, this source has intermittent periods as it is usually linked to the sugarcane crop. There are few prediction and simulation studies of this energy source. Thus, the dissertation aims to implement the Markov chain model with Monte Carlo simulations.

[pt] Métodos de amortecimento exponencial são formulações versáteis para a previsão de séries temporais univariadas, desenvolvidas na década de 1960. Modelos mais recentes têm feito uso do bagging para melhorar a qualidade das previsões. Um destes, o BaggedETS, desenvolvido em 2016, trouxe melhorias na qualidade de previsão e está disponível na biblioteca forecast para R. Uma proposta posterior, BaggedClusterETS, adicionou uma etapa de clustering e validação para tratar o efeito da covariância associada ao uso do bagging, resultando em ganhos adicionais de performance. Este trabalho explora três extensões dos métodos supracitados e seus efeitos: o primeiro estuda os efeitos do maximum entropy bootstrap na realização do BaggedETS. O segundo explora diferentes medidas de dissimilaridade para construir os clusters do BaggedClusterETS. O terceiro emprega uma versão simplificada do BaggedClusterETS, removendo as etapas de validação e seleção, empregando apenas os medóides para realizar o bagging. Para testar estas propostas, 21 séries temporais da aviação civil e demanda energética foram empregadas. / [en] Exponential smoothing methods are flexible procedures for univariate time series forecasting, developed in the 1960 s. Most recent developments based on these models use bagging to improve forecast quality. One of these implementations, BaggedETS, developed in 2016, brought improvements in forecast quality and is distributed through the forecast package for R. A posterior implementation, BaggedClusterETS, adds clustering and validation steps to address the covariance effect associated with bagging. The proposal resulted in further accuracy improvements. This work delves into three extensions of the aforementioned methods: the first studies the effects of the maximum entropy bootstrap on the BaggedETS. The second explores different dissimilarity measures to construct the clusters in BaggedClusterETS. The third studies a simplified version of BaggedClusterETS, where the validation and selection steps are removed, and using only the medoids for bagging. To test these proposals, 21 time series from civil aviation and energy consumption were used.

Medieinnehåll bidrar till uppfattningen om hur man som kvinna är och bör vara. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka hur den kvinnliga huvudkaraktären Hannah Horvath framställs i Girls säsong 5. Detta för att se hur hennes femininitet kommer till uttryck genom vänner, kärlek, sexualitet och karriär. Vidare kommer att utläsas hur hon utmanar samt knyter an till den traditionella bilden av kvinnor i TV.  Uppsatsen använder sig av en narrativ analysmetod hämtad från How to Study Television (1995), som specialiserar sig på hur man studerar innehållet i TV och TV-serier. Analysen kommer att göras utifrån ett genus-och (post)feministiskt perspektiv för att möjiiggöra utläsningen av traditionella och stereotypa egenskaper, attribut samt beteenden kopplat till femininitet och kvinnor. Analysen består av sex scener från sex olika avsnitt ur den femte säsongen av Girls. Analysen har visat hur karaktären Hannah Horvath både utmanar och knyter an till traditionellt framställda bilder av kvinnor i TV. Detta genom att hennes karaktär tillskriver sig, samt skapar en dialektisk relation mellan både maskulint och feminint förväntade egenskaper och beteenden. Utöver följande aspekter går det att utläsa att Hannah Horvath uttrycker sig både inom feministiska, och postfeministiska ramverk.

Mitt examensarbete består av en skriftlig del och en gestaltande del. Den skriftliga delen är en DROP, med beskrivande text och bild kring arbetsprocessen av mitt examensarbete. Den gestaltande delen består av mitt examensarbete, den grafiska novellen UTOPIA.

[pt] Esta dissertação apresenta um desenvolvimento analítico que permite caracterizar as distorções produzidas na densidade espectral de potência de sinais OFDM devido à sua passagem através de sistemas não lineares. O processo estocástico que caracteriza a envoltória complexa de um sinal OFDM é odelado como um processo estocástico gaussiano complexo, próprio. A não linearidade do canal de transmissão é caracterizada pela expansão, em série de potências, de suas características de conversão AM/AM e AM/PM. Utilizando-se o Teorema dos Momentos para processos gaussianos complexos chega-se a expressões analíticas fechadas para a função autocorrelação e para a densidade espectral de potência do sinal produzido na saída da não- linearidade. As expressões obtidas são aplicadas a situações particulares nas quais 1, 2 e 3 sinais OFDM compartilham a não- linearidade permitindo quantificar, nestas situações específicas, as distorções correspondentes aos produtos de intermodulação de diferentes ordens e o efeito, nestas distorções, de variações no valor do back-off de entrada do sinal. / [en] This MSc dissertation presents a theoretical analysis that evaluates the distortion experienced by the power spectrum density of OFDM signals when they are transmitted through a non-linear channel. The complex envelope of the OFDM signals are modeled as a complex proper gaussian random process and the channel non-linearity is characterized through a power series expansion of its AM/AM and AM/PM distortion curves. Using the Moment Theorem for complex gaussian random processes, closed form expressions for the autocorrelation function and the power spectrum density of the signal produced at the non-linear channel output are obtained. These expressions are applied to specific situations in which 1, 2 and 3 OFDM signals share the nonlinear channel, producing results that quantify the distortions corresponding to intermodulation products of different orders and the effect of varying the signal input back-off value.

Socióloga / Frente a la complejidad de abordar la noción de las memorias de la dictadura militar en Chile, propongo en este documento el estudio del fenómeno de construcción de estas memorias a través de las series televisivas nacionales, dando cuenta de un objeto particular de producción artística que corresponde al caso de Los 80. Se trata de una obra que fue conquistando su sitio a contracorriente en una programación televisiva destinada a la conmemoración de pasajes de la historia nacional, pero cuya promesa remite a un autor y posibilita perfilarla como un caso ilustrativo desde la perspectiva de la sociología del arte. En este sentido, ubico mi investigación en este campo de las ciencias sociales y mediante una metodología cualitativa buscaré dar cuenta de la articulación entre el proceso de recepción de la obra, las mediaciones presentes en éste y la configuración de un mundo de la obra de la serie Los 80. Para esto desarrollo a continuación cuatro pilares fundamentales en esta problemática, correspondientes a planteamientos de un ejercicio posible de sociología del arte, las aproximaciones a la noción de memorias, la discusión sobre producción cultural, convergiendo en pensar el caso Los 80 para dilucidar las estrategias de construcción de memorias de la dictadura, desplegadas por tres grupos generacionalmente delimitados

<p>There are many dolomitic outcrops at Rondean sector (into the biogeographical Betic Province). Most of them, involve floral richness and vegetal endemic species due to its calcareous origin. These diverse organisms build peculiar plant communities. They can survive in extreme conditions as drought and high levels of Mg2+ cation. Many studies pronounce that these communities are unique, so they have to be conserved, and some of these plant communities are in the Habitats Directive 92/43 EC. </p><p>38% of the dolomitic outcrops can be affected by mining processes. Those particularly affected are dolomitic outcrops located in the mountains range of “Sierra Blanca” and “Sierra de Mijas”. Nowadays, there are 21 quarries in these mountains and they occupy more than 409 Ha. We have studied 11 dolomite quarries and surroundings on “Sierra de Mijas”. There is one vegetation serie on these areas (Rhamno oleoidis-Querco rotundifoliae sigmetum. Dolomitic section), knowing the plant communities we could draw with a Geographical Information System (GIS) the polygons where they are. And using the modified Botanic Value Index equation (Nieto et al., 1999) we could calculate the botanical value of these polygons. After that, we could establish a classification of the study area from the point of view of conservation interest, and we could set up new restoration criteria on these lands. </p><p>We have found that approximately the 53 % of the studied area has a high botanic value. There are many endemic taxa in the studied area and 4 species exclusive of the “Sierra de Mijas” mountain range. 90 % of the present communities are included in the Habitats Directive 92/43 CE, and three of the communities are exclusive of the studied area. This is the reason why these quarries have to be restored with a sustainable criteria.</p><p>Current restoration plans try to reforest with the climax vegetation (Quercus rotundifolia) or different species of pines (used in several previous reforestations). However, to restore a quarry these plans should include, in addition, other factors such as soil depth, structure of vegetal communities, botanic value, etc. And the Reforest Models of Valle (2004) propose sustainable restoration that could be usefull in the dolomite quarries of “Sierra de Mijas” mountain range.</p>

There are many dolomitic outcrops at Rondean sector (into the biogeographical Betic Province). Most of them, involve floral richness and vegetal endemic species due to its calcareous origin. These diverse organisms build peculiar plant communities. They can survive in extreme conditions as drought and high levels of Mg2+ cation. Many studies pronounce that these communities are unique, so they have to be conserved, and some of these plant communities are in the Habitats Directive 92/43 EC. 38% of the dolomitic outcrops can be affected by mining processes. Those particularly affected are dolomitic outcrops located in the mountains range of “Sierra Blanca” and “Sierra de Mijas”. Nowadays, there are 21 quarries in these mountains and they occupy more than 409 Ha. We have studied 11 dolomite quarries and surroundings on “Sierra de Mijas”. There is one vegetation serie on these areas (Rhamno oleoidis-Querco rotundifoliae sigmetum. Dolomitic section), knowing the plant communities we could draw with a Geographical Information System (GIS) the polygons where they are. And using the modified Botanic Value Index equation (Nieto et al., 1999) we could calculate the botanical value of these polygons. After that, we could establish a classification of the study area from the point of view of conservation interest, and we could set up new restoration criteria on these lands. We have found that approximately the 53 % of the studied area has a high botanic value. There are many endemic taxa in the studied area and 4 species exclusive of the “Sierra de Mijas” mountain range. 90 % of the present communities are included in the Habitats Directive 92/43 CE, and three of the communities are exclusive of the studied area. This is the reason why these quarries have to be restored with a sustainable criteria. Current restoration plans try to reforest with the climax vegetation (Quercus rotundifolia) or different species of pines (used in several previous reforestations). However, to restore a quarry these plans should include, in addition, other factors such as soil depth, structure of vegetal communities, botanic value, etc. And the Reforest Models of Valle (2004) propose sustainable restoration that could be usefull in the dolomite quarries of “Sierra de Mijas” mountain range.

Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka serier som en adekvat bärare av kunskap och därför ett möjligt didaktiskt instrument för att utveckla elevers lässtrategier i svenskämnet på högstadiet. Uppsatsen redogör för seriens definition och samhälleliga status samt möjligheter kopplade till genrens plats i skolan. Fokus ligger på serier som faller under kategorin grafiska romaner, vilka är omfattande serieverk som berättar en viktig historia. Stand-alone-stories och auteur är även viktiga begrepp eftersom de in- nefattar serier som inte är massproducerade och där serieskaparen är ansvarig för hela den kreativa processen. För att nå en djupare förståelse för serier innehåller serien ett analysinstrument baserat på semiotik. Instrumentet används för att analysera två gra- fiska romaner: Persepolis av Marjane Satrapi (2006) och Maus av Art Spiegelman (2009). Analysen visar att genom en fördjupad dekonstruktion av serier kan en större förståelse och kritisk förmåga utvecklas hos elever. Slutligen diskuteras möjligheterna för att använda serien i skolan med särskilt fokus på svenskämnet. / The focus of this thesis has been to research comics as an adequate holder of knowledge, and therefore a possible didactic tool to develop students’ reading strate- gies in Swedish language classrooms. The thesis engages in the definition and societal status of comics and the possibilities and obstacles connected to reading the genre in schools. Focus has been on comics that fall into the category graphic novels, which are more extensive works of comics that tell an important story. Stand-alone-story and au- teur are also important concepts since they encompass comics that are not mass-pro- duced and where the creator is responsible for the entire creative process. To reach a better understanding of comics the thesis contains an analysis instrument based on se- miotics. The instrument is then used to analyse two graphic novels: Persepolis by Marjane Satrapi (2006) and Maus by Art Spiegelman (2009). Our analysis shows that through an in-depth deconstruction of comics, a greater understanding and critical ability can be reached. Finally we discuss the possibilities of using comics in all sub- jects, particularly in language classes.