BACKGROUND: Several studies have demonstrated the association between the time to hypertension event and multiple baseline measurements for adults, yet other survival cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes such as high cholesterol and heart attack have been somewhat less considered. The Fels Longitudinal Study (FLS) provides us an opportunity to connect adult blood pressure (BP) at certain ages to the time to first CVD outcomes. The availability of long-term serial BP measurements from FLS also potentially allows us to evaluate if the trend of the measured BP biomarkers over time predicts survival outcomes in adulthood through statistical modeling. METHODS: When the reference standard is right-censored time-to-event (survival) outcome, the C index or concordance C, is commonly used as a summary measure of discrimination between a survival outcome that is possibly right censored and a predictive-score variable, say, a measured biomarker or a composite-score output from a statistical model that combines multiple biomarkers. When we have subjects longitudinally followed up, it is of primary interest to assess if some baseline measurements predict the time-to-event outcome. Specifically, in this study, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, as well as their variation over time, are considered predictive biomarkers, and we assess their predictive ability for certain time-to-event outcomes in terms of the C index. RESULTS: There are a few summary C index differences that are statistically significant in predicting and discriminating certain CVD metric at certain age stage, though some of these differences are altered in the presence of medicine treatment and lifestyle characteristics. The variation of systolic BP measures over time has a significantly different predicting ability comparing with systolic BP measures at certain given time point, for predicting certain survival outcome such as high cholesterol level. CONCLUSIONS: Adult systolic and diastolic BP measurements may have significantly different ability in predicting time to first CVD events. The fluctuation of BP measurements over time may have better association than BP measurement at a single baseline time point, with the time to first CVD events.

Le cancer est chaque année responsable de 7,6 millions de décès dans le monde. L'amélioration des traitements constitue donc un enjeu majeur de santé publique. Il a été démontré que l'association d'un diagnostic précoce et d'un traitement efficace était associée à un impact significatif sur la survie des patients. De nombreux facteurs pronostics de la survie ont été identités et sont actuellement utilisés en routine clinique. Ce diagnostic est souvent réalisé en partieà l'aide de l'imagerie de Tomographie par Emission de Positons (TEP), cette dernière s'étantavérée être un outil très performant pour l'identification des tumeurs et métastases dans uncertain nombre de modèles de cancer. La TEP fait partie des modalités d'imagerie fonctionnelleet a donc le potentiel de fournir des informations liées à la biologie sous-jacente des cancers.Toutefois, du fait de sa faible résolution spatiale, elle n'avait que très peu été utilisée avec cet objectif.Ce travail de thèse a consisté à étudier des paramètres quantitatifs pouvant être extraitsde ces images, plus spécifiquement ceux permettant la caractérisation de l'hétérogénéité intratumorale. Nous avons pu identifier un ensemble de paramètres issus de l'analyse de texture quisont reproductibles, robustes aux effets de volume partiel et à la méthode de segmentation, etvraisemblablement liés à la physiologie tumorale. Nous avons également pu mettre en évidencele potentiel de ces paramètres extraits d'images de diagnostic, pour contribuer à la prédiction dela réponse thérapeutique ainsi que comme facteur pronostic. Ces nouveaux indices quantitatifspourraient à relativement court terme venir compléter les facteurs de référence courammentutilisés aujourd'hui en oncologie pour la prise en charge thérapeutique des patients. / Cancer is responsible every year for the death of 7.6 million people. Treatments improvement is thus of the greatest importance regarding public health. The association of an early diagnosis with an efficient treatment was shown to lead to a significant impact on patients survival rates. Numerous prognostic factors have been identified and are now being used in clinical routine. Nowadays, Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is often used for tumor and metastasis identification because of its established accuracy in numerous cancer models. PET belongs to the functional imaging techniques and may potentially therefore provide information relative to cancer biology. Nevertheless, because of its low spatial resolution, this technique has not been extensively considered for such a purpose. This thesis work aimed at studying quantitative parameters that could be extracted from PET images through texture analysis, in order to characterize tumor heterogeneity. We identified a set of reproducible parameters, robust with respect to partial volume effects as well as segmentation methods that are probably related to the tumor physiology. We have also demonstrated the power of these parameters obtained from diagnostic images for contributing in predicting the therapeutic response as prognostic factors. These new quantitative parameters could in the relatively short term be utilized complementarily to standard oncology factors for patient management purposes.

Determinants of circulatory system diseases among the Czech population Abstract The determinants of circulatory system diseases are very well known, modifiable risk factors and factors widely spread among populations are in focus for the public health research. The aim of this thesis is a quantification of main cardiovascular risk factors in the Czech population using the survival analysis and HAPIEE cohort data. The epidemiologic situation, trends in the Czech population health including "the cardiovascular revolution" is discussed in the first part of the thesis. Among the Czech population high prevalence of many risk factors were found. The education had the strongest impact on cardiovascular health from sociodemographic characteristics. The negative effect of smoking, prevalence of high blood pressure, prevalence of diabetes and physical inactivity was confirmed. On the other hand the impact of obesity, binge drinking and high blood cholesterol level was not significant among the Czech population. The population approach in cardiovascular epidemiology and cardiovascular health promotion as well are discussed in the last chapter. Keywords: diseases of the circulatory system, mortality, health transition, cardiovascular health, risk factors, survival analysis, health promotion

Survival analysis is an effective tool for conservation studies, since it measure the risk of an event that is important for the survival of populations and preservation of biodiversity. In this thesis three different models for survival analysis are used to estimate the age at breeding between two genetically different populations of brown trout. These populations are an evolutionary enigma, since they apparently coexist in direct competition with each other, which according to ecological theory should not happen. Thus it is of interest if differences between them can be identified. The data consists of brown trouts and has been collected over 20 years. The models are the Cox Proportional Hazards model, the Complementary Log-Log Link model and the Log Logistic Accelerated Failure-Time model. The Cox model were estimated in three different ways due to the nonproportional hazards in the estimates of time to breeding, which gave different interpretations of the same model. All of the models agree that the population B breed at younger ages than the population A, which suggests that the two populations have different reproductive strategies.

O carcinoma epidermóide de cabeça e pescoço (CECP) é um problema de saúde relevante no mundo, por sua prevalência e agressividade. Os papéis do tabaco e do álcool estão bem definidos na sua etiologia, mas uma minoria crescente dos pacientes acometidos pela doença não é tabagista ou etilista. A infecção pelo papilomavirus humano (HPV) parece ser responsável por parte desses casos. Sugere-se que o CECP que acomete pacientes não tabagistas e não etilistas (NTNE) tenha processos carcinogênicos e evolução clínica distintos daqueles de pacientes tabagistas e etilistas (TE). Os objetivos desse estudo foram verificar se os aspectos demográficos, clínicos e histopatológicos de pacientes com CECP são diferentes conforme os hábitos tabágico e etílico; verificar se os CECPs de pacientes NTNE e TE diferem em relação à positividade para HPV; e comparar a sobrevida específica pela doença e a expressão de marcadores biológicos em amostras tumorais e de mucosa normal do trato aerodigestório de pacientes NTNE e de pacientes TE. Para tanto, realizamos estudo transversal de pacientes com carcinomas epidermóides de cavidade oral (exceto lábio), orofaringe, laringe e hipofaringe, prospectivamente incluídos em um banco de tumores de CECP de 2001 a 2009, pelo grupo de pesquisa multi-institucional GENCAPO. Seus dados demográficos, clínicos e patológicos foram analisados conforme os hábitos de tabagismo e etilismo. Através de análise de pareamento, pacientes NTNE e TE foram comparados em relação à sobrevida, à positividade para o HPV no tumor por reação em cadeia da polimerase (PCR) e aos marcadores imunohistoquímicos p53, FHIT, Ki-67, VEGF, EGFR e p16 tanto em amostras tumorais como de epitélio não tumoral. Dos 1633 pacientes selecionados, 80 eram NTNE (4,9%), 1374 TE (84,1%), 140 tabagistas atuais ou no passado mas não etilistas (TNE:8,6%) e 39 apenas etilistas atuais ou no passado, mas não tabagistas (NTE:2,4%). O grupo de pacientes NTNE constituiu-se principalmente por mulheres, preferencialmente idosas, com tumores da cavidade oral, diferentemente de pacientes tabagistas e/ou etilistas (p<0,001). Considerando os diferentes padrões de hábitos, pacientes TE eram geralmente mais jovens (p<0,001), pacientes TNE apresentaram proporcionalmente mais tumores de laringe (p<0,001) e pacientes NTNE apresentaram menor número de parentes de primeiro grau tabagistas (p<0,001). Observou-se um provável efeito do álcool na ocorrência de metástases ganglionares (p<0,001), enquanto o tabaco pareceu relacionar-se a menor grau de diferenciação tumoral à histologia e a menores índices de massa corpórea (p<0,001). Detectou-se a presença de material genético do HPV em 32,8% dos tumores de pacientes NTNE. Desses tumores positivos para o HPV, metade apresentou também hiperexpressão pelo p16. Foi observado menor risco de óbito pela doença em pacientes NTNE quando apresentavam expressão tumoral intensa do p16 (p=0,011 / RR = 0,07; IC 0,01-0,55) e menor sobrevida se apresentavam marcação pelo FHIT em camada basal de margem não tumoral (p= 0,031). Ao comparar pacientes NTNE e TE, não se observaram diferenças na sobrevida específica pela doença ou na positividade para o HPV de forma independente de sexo, idade, sítio tumoral, grau de diferenciação, variante morfológica, estádio T e presença de metástases linfonodais. Pacientes NTNE apresentaram marcação nuclear pelo FHIT em camada basal menos frequentemente do que pacientes TE (p=0,021) / Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a major health problem worldwide, due to its prevalence and aggressiveness. The role of tobacco and alcohol in its etiology is well established; however, a growing minority of patients with HNSCC neither smokes nor consumes alcohol. Human Papillomavirus (HPV) infection seems to be responsible for some of these cases. It is suggested that HNSCC affecting non smoking and non drinking (NSND) patients has different carcinogenesis and outcomes than those in smoking and drinking (SD) subjects. The objectives of this study were to test if demographic, clinical and pathological aspects of patients with HNSCC vary according to smoking and drinking habits; to test if HNSCC in NSND and SD patients differ in terms of HPV positivity; and to compare NSND and SD patients with HNSCC according to survival and biomarkers in tumor and mucosal samples of the aerodigestive tract. We conducted a cross-sectional study of patients with oral cavity (lips excluded), oropharynx, larynx and hypopharynx tumors prospectively included in a multi-institutional HNSCC tumor bank - GENCAPO, from January 2001 to February 2009. Demographic, clinical and pathological data were analyzed in regards of smoking and drinking habits. Using matched-pair analysis, we compared NSND and SD patients in relation to disease-free survival, HPV positivity through polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and Immunohistochemical staining of p53, FHIT, Ki-67, VEGF, EGFR and p16 biomarkers in tumor and mucosal samples. From 1633 patients, 80 were NSND (4.9%), 1374 SD (84.1%), 140 current or past smokers, but non drinkers (SND:8.6%) and 39 current or past drinkers, but non smokers (NSD:2.4%). NSND patients were most frequently women, remarkably elderly, with oral cavity cancers more commonly than the other groups (p<0.001).Comparing to the other groups, SD patients were younger (p<0.001); SND patients were more frequently affected by larynx tumors (p<0.001) and NSND patients had fewer smoking first degree relatives (p<0.001). We observed that alcohol may influence the presence on node metastasis (p<0.001) whereas tobacco may be related to less differentiated tumors and lower body mass indexes (p<0.001). We found HPV DNA in 32.8% of tumors of NSND subjects. Half of the HPV positive tumors were also positive for p16 staining. A lower risk of death from disease was observed among NSND patients with intense p16 staining (p=0.011 / RR = 0.07; CI 0.01-0.55) and lower survival rates in patients with positive nuclear staining for FHIT at the basal layer of mucosal epithelium (p=0.031). We found no differences in disease-free survival of NSND and SD patients in an independent manner of gender, age, tumor site, differentiation grade at histology, pathological variants, T stage and the presence of node metastasis. NSND patients presented less frequently with nuclear staining for FHIT at the basal layer of mucosal epithelium than SD patients (p=0.021)

Introdução: Crianças admitidas em unidades de terapia intensiva pediátricas (UTIP) frequentemente apresentam ou desenvolvem insuficiência respiratória aguda com necessidade de ventilação mecânica. Analisamos prospectivamente crianças admitidas em três UTIPs, com o objetivo de identificar fatores de risco para mortalidade. Métodos: Neste estudo observacional de pacientes com idades entre 1 mês e 15 anos, admitidos entre Agosto de 2008 e Julho de 2010, as crianças elegíveis eram as que apresentavam lesão pulmonar aguda ou síndrome do desconforto respiratório agudo que se desenvolvia após 12 horas de ventilação invasiva ou não invasiva. Usamos modelos de regressão logística para explorar a relação entre o óbito e variáveis independentes. Resultados: Dos 3046 pacientes admitidos nas três UTIPs, 1658 foram submetidos à ventilação mecânica e 84 preencheram os critérios de lesão pulmonar aguda/ síndrome do desconforto respiratório agudo e foram analisados. Aproximadamente 60% dos pacientes eram do sexo masculino, e a mediana de idade foi de 31 meses. O modo de ventilação inicial em 86% dos casos foi pressão controlada/assisto-controlada e a mediana de duração da ventilação mecânica e de tempo de internação na UTIP foram de 12 e 15 dias, respectivamente. Nenhum dos oito pacientes que desenvolveu lesão pulmonar aguda morreu, enquanto 33 dos 76 pacientes restantes com síndrome do desconforto respiratório agudo morreram, determinando uma mortalidade geral de 39,3% (IC95%, 28,8-50,6%). Em diferentes modelos de regressão logística multivariados, o número de disfunções orgânicas, a pressão de pico inspiratória, o gradiente de pressão no primeiro dia e a média do gradiente de pressão nos primeiros 7 dias de ventilação mecânica foram significativamente associados a mortalidade. Conclusões: A mortalidade em lesão pulmonar aguda/ síndrome do desconforto respiratório agudo pediátrica é alta. Fatores de risco para óbito associados à ventilação mecânica são alvos potenciais para intervenção / Purpose: Children admitted to PICUs often present with or develop respiratory failure that requires mechanical ventilation. We prospectively identified children admitted to three general PICUs, with the goal of identifying risk factors for mortality. Methods: In this observational study of patients aged between 1 month and 15 years treated between August 2008 and July 2010, eligible children were those with acute lung injury or acute respiratory distress syndrome that developed at least 12 hours after invasive or noninvasive mechanical ventilation. We used logistic regression models to explore the relationship between death and independent variables. Results: Of 3,046 patients admitted to the three PICUs, 1,658 patients underwent mechanical ventilation, and 84 fulfilled the acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome inclusion criteria and were analyzed. Nearly 60% were boys, and the median age was 31 months. Pressure control/assist control was the initial mode of mechanical ventilation in 86% of cases, and the median durations of mechanical ventilation and PICU stay were 12 and 15 days, respectively. None of the eight patients with acute lung injury died, whereas 33 of 76 of the remaining patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome died, for an overall mortality rate of 39.3% (95% CI, 28.8-50.6%). In different multivariate logistic regression model, the number of organ dysfunctions at admission, peak inspiratory pressure, airway pressure gradient on day 1, and the mean airway pressure gradient over the first 7 days of mechanical ventilation were significantly associated with mortality. Conclusion: Mortality is high in pediatric acute lung injury/acute respiratory distress syndrome. Mechanical ventilation-associated risk factors for death among such patients are potential targets for intervention

INTRODUÇÃO: Enquanto a análise de sobrevida tradicional estima inadequadamente o prognóstico futuro dada alguma sobrevida inicial, a sobrevida condicional ajusta a sobrevida futura pela já observada, permitindo a compreensão da distribuição temporal do impacto dos preditores. OBJETIVOS: Estimar e analisar as sobrevidas global e livre de doença até o décimo ano pós-operatório; identificar preditores independentes destes desfechos; estimar e analisar as sobrevidas condicionais global e livre de doença de cinco anos dada a sobrevida até o quinto ano pós-operatório; analisar o comportamento dos preditores dos desfechos ao longo do tempo. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo envolvendo 13 centros brasileiros. Dados clínicos, radiológicos e anatomopatológicos foram considerados. Utilizou-se o método de Kaplan-Meier com o teste log-rank para comparar fatores e a regressão de Cox obteve a razão de riscos. A sobrevida condicional foi calculada a partir das tábuas de sobrevida e a diferença padronizada reavaliou as variáveis consideradas significativas. RESULTADOS: 1157 pacientes foram incluídos. A sobrevida global de 1, 3, 5, 7 e 10 anos foi 78,6%, 72,3%, 66,0%, 61,3% e 59,4%, respectivamente. Foram preditoras de sobrevida global: idade [HR 1,04 (IC 95% 1,02-1,06), p 0.000], sexo feminino [HR 1,35 (IC 95% 1,02-1,79), p 0.038], recidiva pós-operatória do CHC [HR 1,35 (IC 95% 1,08-1,79), p 0.003], diâmetro do maior nódulo viável no explante [HR 1,01 (IC95% 1,01-1,02), p 0.006], invasão vascular não discriminada [HR 3,18 (IC95% 1,48-6,85), p 0.004], invasão micro [HR 1,65 (IC 95% 1,27-2,15), p 0.001] e macrovascular [HR 2,25 (IC 95% 1,30-3,89), p 0.000]. A sobrevida condicional global de 5 anos ao final do 1°, 3° e 5° anos foi 79,5%, 82,2% e 90,0%, respectivamente. As variáveis preditoras na análise univariada tiveram comportamento errático ao longo do tempo. A sobrevida atuarial livre de doença em 1, 3, 5, 7 e 10 anos foi 94,2%, 90,1%, 89,8%, 87,5% e 87,5%, respectivamente. Foram preditoras de sobrevida livre de doença: nível sérico de alfa-fetoproteína no diagnóstico [HR 1,0 (IC 95% 1,01-1,02), p 0.000], CHC dentro do critério de Milão no diagnóstico [HR 0,42 (IC 95% 0,22-0,80), p 0.008], explante dentro do critério de Milão [HR 0,34 (IC 95% 0,17-0,68), p 0.002], explante com neoplasia pouco diferenciada ou hepatocolangiocarcinoma [HR 3,04 (IC 95% 1,75-5,30), p 0.000], invasão vascular não discriminada [HR 15,72 (IC 95% 3,44-71,83), p 0.000], invasão micro [HR 3,40 (IC 95% 1,83-6,28), p 0.000] e macrovascular [HR 11,96 (IC 95% 5,20-27,47), p 0.000]. A sobrevida condicional livre de doença de 5 anos ao final do 1°, 3° e 5° anos foi 94,1%, 97,1% e 97,4%, respectivamente. Variáveis preditoras na análise univariada em geral tem maior impacto no primeiro ou segundo ano. CONCLUSÕES: Os resultados do transplante no Brasil foram comparáveis àqueles observados nos EUA e Europa. Considerando-se as perdas precoces, as curvas de sobrevida pelo método Kaplan-Meier foram pessimistas e a análise de sobrevida condicional fornece outra perspectiva para estes dados. O comportamento das variáveis determinantes de prognóstico não é uniforme ao longo do tempo / INTRODUCTION: Traditional survival analysis provides inadequate estimates of the future prognosis for patients with accrued survival. Conversely, conditional survival adjusts future survival by the already accrued survival. It provides insights into the temporal distribution of the effect of predictors. OBJECTIVES: To estimate and to analyse overall and disease free survival until the 10th post-operative year; to identify independent predictors of these outcomes; to estimate and to analyse 5-year overall and disease free conditional survival until the 5th post-operative year; to analyse the behaviour of the predictors of outcomes during follow-up. METHODS: Retrospective cohort from 13 Brazilian transplantation centers. Clinical, radiological, and anatomopathological data were considered. The Kaplan-Meier method with the longrank test for the comparison of factors was applied and the Cox proportional hazards model provided the hazard ratios. Conditional survival was calculated through life tables, while differences between significative variables were reassessed by the standardized difference. RESULTS: 1157 patients were included. Overall survival in 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 78.6%, 72.3%, 66.0%, 61.3%, and 59.4%, respectively. 350 (30.3%) deaths were observed, 240 (68.6%) in the 1st year. Overall survival was independently predicted by age [HR 1.04 (95% CI 1.02-1.06), p 0.000], female sex [HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.02-1.79), p 0.038], post-operative HCC recurrence [HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.08-1.79), p 0.003], diameter of the largest viable nodule on the explant [HR 1.01 (95% CI 1.01-1.02), p 0.006], non-discriminated vascular invasion [HR 3.18 (95% CI 1.48-6.85), p 0.004], micro [HR 1.65 (95% CI 1.27-2.15), p 0.001] and macrovascular invasion [HR 2.25 (95% CI 1.30-3.89), p 0.000]. 5-year overall conditional survival at the end of the 1st, 3rd and 5th post-operative years was 79.5%, 82.2%, and 90.0%, respectively. Predictors of overall survival identified on univariate analysis presented an erratic behaviour over time. Disease free survival in 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 years was 94.2%, 90.1%, 89.8%, 87.5%, and 87.5%, respectively. 97 (8.4%) reccurrences occurred. Disease free survival was independently predicted by serum alpha-fetoprotein upon diagnosis [HR 1.0 (95% CI 1.01-1.02), p 0.000], HCC within the Milan criteria upon diagnosis [HR 0.42 (95% CI 0.22-0.80), p 0.008], explant within the Milan criteria [HR 0.34 (95% CI 0.17-0.68), p 0.002], undifferentiated tumor or hepatocholangiocarcinoma on the explant [HR 3.04 (95% CI 1.75-5.30), p 0.000], non-discriminated vascular invasion [HR 15.72 (95% CI 3.44-71.83), p 0.000], micro [HR 3.40 (95% CI 1.83-6.28), p 0.000], and macrovascular invasion [HR 11.96 (95% CI 5.20-27.47), p 0.000]. 5-year disease free conditional survival at the end of the 1st, 3rd and 5th post-operative years was 94.1%, 97.1%, and 97.4%, respectively. Predictors of recurrence on the univariate analysis usually presented with greater impact during the 1st or 2nd post-operative year. CONCLUSIONS: Outcomes of liver transplantation in Brazil were comparable to those from the US and Europe. Survival estimates through the Kaplan-Meier method were pessimistic due to greater early losses. Conditional survival offers a different perspective for the same data. The behaviour of predictive values varies over time

A distribuição gama generalizada (GG) possui, como casos particulares, distribuição Weibull, log-normal, gama, qui-quadrado, entre outras. Por essa razão, ela e considerada uma distribuição exvel no ajuste dos dados. A ideia de Cordeiro e Castro (2011) foi utilizada para o desenvolvimento de duas novas distribuições de probabilidade a partir da distribuição GG. Uma delas e denominada de Kumaraswamy gama generalizada (KumGG) e possui cinco parâmetros; a outra distribuição e uma modificação de um dos parmetros de forma da distribuição KumGG e foi denominada de distribuição Kumaraswamy gama generalizada estendida (KumGGE). Desenvolveu-se o modelo de regressão log-Kumaraswamy gama generalizada estendida. Alem disso, a ideia de Adamidis e Loukas (1998) para modicar distribuições foi utilizada para a distribuição GG; essa nova distribuição foi nomeada de gama generalizada geometrica (GGG). A vantagem desses novos modelos reside na capacidade de acomodar varias formas da função risco eles tambem se mostraram uteis na discriminação de modelos. Para cada um dos modelos foram calculados os momentos, função geradora de momentos, os desvios medios, a conabilidade e a função densidade de probabilidade da estatistica de ordem. Para a estimação dos parâmetros, foram utilizados os metodos de maxima verossimilhanca e bayesiano e, finalmente, para ilustrar a aplicação das novas distribuições foram analisados alguns conjuntos de dados reais. / The generalized gamma (GG) distribution has as particular cases the Weibull, log-normal, gamma and Chi-square distributions, among others. For this reason, it is considered a exible distribution for tting data. In this paper, the idea of Cordeiro and Castro (2011) is used to develop two new probability distributions based on the GG distribution. The rst is called the generalized gamma Kumaraswamy (KumGG) and has ve parameters, while the other involves a modication of one of the shape parameters of the KumGG distribution and is called the extended generalized gamma Kumaraswamy (KumGGE). Based in these, we develop the extended generalized log-Kumaraswamy regression model. Besides this, we employ the idea regarding modifying distributions of Adamidis and Loukas (1998) for the GG distribution, calling this new distribution the geometric generalized gamma (GGG). The advantage of these new models rests in their capacity to accommodate various risk function forms. They are also useful in model discrimination. We calculate the moments, moments generating function, mean deviations, reliability and probability density function of the order statistics. To estimate the parameters we use the maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Finally, to illustrate the application of the new distributions, we analyze some real data sets.

O estudo avaliou a efetividade de tratamentos de superfície na modificação superficial e adesão da zircônia ao cimento resinoso; a estabilidade de união após ciclagem termomecânica entre coroas metal free com copings em zircônia ou coroas monolíticas em zircônia e pilares personalizados do mesmo material, submetidos a tratamento superficial, e a influência destes na sobrevida dos sistemas protéticos após fadiga termomecânica acelerada. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida em 2 etapas. Na primeira, discos de zircônia foram distribuídos em sete grupos (n=6): G1 (Rocatec); G2 (ácido hidrofluorídrico 40%, 210 segundos); G3 (ácido hidrofluorídrico 40%, 210 segundos + Rocatec); G4 (nanopartícula ZrO2); G5 (nanopartícula SiO2); G6 (nanopartícula SiO2ZrO2); G7 (nanopartícula SiO2ZrO2 + silano). Uma amostra por grupo (n=1) foi analisada por espectroscopia infravermelho (FTIR), difração de raios-x (DRX) e microscopia eletrônica de varredura (MEV). As demais, submetidas a microscopia confocal a laser (n=5) para determinação da rugosidade superficial (Ra) e teste de cisalhamento. Molhabilidade e energia de superfície foram desenvolvidas em triplicata (n=3). G1, G3, G5 e G7 apresentaram valores de resistência ao cisalhamento superiores aos demais. Os melhores resultados definiram os tratamentos da etapa seguinte. Na segunda etapa, 162 análogos de implante conexão tipo Morse foram utilizados. Sobre eles, instaladas bases de titânio conectando pilar de zircônia ao análogo. Os 162 pilares foram distribuídos em 2 grupos de acordo com o ensaio: ciclagem termomecânica ou fadiga termomecânica acelerada. Para cada ensaio, duas modalidades restauradoras foram planejadas (Mono - coroa monolítica em zircônia, Pren - coping em zircônia + cobertura de vitrocerâmica fluorapatita). Pilares foram distribuídos a depender do tratamento recebido: MonoRo (Rocatec), MonoSi (nanopartícula SiO2), MonoSiZr (nanopartícula SiO2ZrO2 + silano). Grupo Pren recebeu os mesmos tratamentos. Sobre pilares, foram cimentadas coroas. Coroas monolíticas, copings e pilares foram obtidos via CAD/CAM. A adesão foi quantificada por teste de resistência à tração após ciclagem termomecânica (n=9) (2x106 ciclos, 2Hz, 120N e ciclos térmicos de 5º-55ºC). Valores de resistência à tração e padrões de falha obtidos foram registrados. Não foram encontradas diferenças significantes entre grupos para resistência à tração, mas o comportamento médio da força foi diferente nos grupos dependendo da falha. Sobrevida dos conjuntos foi analisada após fadiga termomecânica acelerada (n=18) (cargas progressivas a cada 2x104 ciclos de 80, 120, 160, 200, 240, 280 e 320N em 5Hz até 14x104 ou a falha, com ciclos térmicos de 5º- 55ºC). Resistência à fadiga foi comparada pela probabilidade de sobrevivência em cada intervalo. Padrões de falha foram classificados em ambos testes e amostras representativas de cada falha analisadas em MEV. MonoRo e MonoSiZr são semelhantes e têm maior probabilidade de sobrevivência que os demais. Pertencer a PrenSiZr, MonoSi, PrenRo ou PrenSi diminui a probabilidade de sobrevivência. / The study evaluated the effectiveness of surface treatments in surface modification and zirconia adhesion to resin cement; the bonding stability after thermomechanical cycling between free metal crowns with zirconia copings or monolithic zirconia crowns and customized abutments of the same material, subjected to surface treatments, and their influence in the survival of prosthetic systems after accelerated thermomechanical fatigue. The research was developed in 2 stages. In the first, zirconia discs were distributed in seven groups (n = 6): G1 (Rocatec); G2 (hydrofluoric acid 40%, 210 seconds); G3 (hydrofluoric acid 40%, 210 seconds + Rocatec); G4 (nanoparticle ZrO2); G5 (SiO2 nanoparticle); G6 (SiO2ZrO2 nanoparticle); G7 (SiO2ZrO2 nanoparticle + silane). One sample per group (n = 1) was analyzed by infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The others were submitted to laser confocal microscopy (n = 5) for determination of surface roughness (Ra) and shear test. Wettability and surface energy were developed in triplicate (n = 3). G1, G3, G5 and G7 presented higher values of shear strength than the others. The best results defined the treatments of the next stage. In the second stage, 162 Morse type implant analogues were used. On them, installed a titanium base, connecting zirconia abutment to analog. The 162 abutments were distributed in 2 groups according to the test: thermomechanical cycling or accelerated thermomechanical fatigue. For each test, two restorative modalities were planned (Mono - monolithic zirconia, Pren - zirconia coping + vitroceramic fluorapatite revestment). Abutments were distributed depending on the treatment received: MonoRo (Rocatec), MonoSi (nanoparticle SiO2), MonoSiZr (nanoparticle SiO2ZrO2 + silane). The Pren Group received the same treatments. Crowns were cemented on abutments. Monolithic crowns, copings and abutments were obtained by CAD/CAM. The adhesion was quantified by tensile strength test after thermomechanical cycling (n = 9) (2x106 cycles, 2Hz, 120N and thermal cycles of 5º-55ºC). Values of tensile strength and obtained failure patterns were recorded. No significant differences were found between groups for tensile strength, but mean force behavior was different in groups depending on failure. The survival of the sets was analyzed after accelerated thermomechanical fatigue (n = 18) (progressive loads every 2x104 cycles of 80, 120, 160, 200, 240, 280 and 320N in 5Hz up to 14x104 or failure, with thermal cycles of 5º- 55ºC). Fatigue resistance was compared by the probability of survival at each interval. Failure patterns were classified in both tests and representative samples of each failure analyzed in SEM. MonoRo and MonoSiZr are similar and more likely to survive than the others. Belonging to PrenSiZr, MonoSi, PrenRo or PrenSi reduces the probability of survival.

Neste trabalho propomos a distribuição Weibull-Binomial-Negativa (WBN) considerando uma estrutura de ativação latente para explicar a ocorrência do evento de interesse, em que o número de causas competitivas é modelado pela distribuição Binomial Negativa, e os tempos não observados devido às causas seguem a distribuição Weibull. Em geral, as causas competitivas podem ter diferentes mecanismos de ativação, sendo assim os casos de primeira ativação, última ativação e ativação aleatória foram considerados no estudo. Desse modo o modelo proposto inclui uma ampla distribuição, tais como Weibull-Geométrico (WG) e Exponencial-Poisson Complementar (EPC), introduzidas por Barreto-Souza et al. (2011) e G. et al. (2011), respectivamente. Baseando-nos na mesma estrutura, consideramos o modelo de regressão locação-escala baseado na distribuição proposta (WBN) e o modelo para dados de sobrevivência com fração de cura. Os principais objetivos deste trabalho é estudar as propriedades matemáticas dos modelos propostos e desenvolver procedimentos de inferências desde uma perspectiva clássica e Bayesiana. Além disso, as medidas de diagnóstico Bayesiana baseadas na \'psi\'-divergência (Peng & Dey, 1995; Weiss, 1996), que inclui como caso particular a medida de divergência Kullback-Leibler (K-L), foram consideradas para detectar observações influentes / In this work we propose the Weibull-Negative-Binomial (WNB) considering a latent activation structure to explain the occurrence of an event of interest, where the number of competing causes are modeled by the Negative Binomial distribution and the no observed time due to the causes following the Weibull distribution. In general, the competitive causes may have different activation mechanisms, cases of first, last and random activation were considered in the study. Thus, the proposed model includes a wide distribution such as Weibull-Geometric distribution (WG) and Exponential-Poisson complementary (EPC) introduced by (Barreto-Souza et al., 2011) and (G. et al., 2011) respectively. Based on the same structure, we propose a location-scale regression model based on the proposed distribution (WNB) and the model for survival data with cure fraction. The main objectives of this work is to study the mathematical properties of the proposed models and develop procedures inferences from a classical and Bayesian perspective. Moreover, the Bayesian diagnostic measures based on the \'psi\'-divergence (Peng & Dey, 1995; Weiss, 1996), which includes Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence measure as a particular case, were considered to detect influential observations