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購屋貸款變數與住宅市場關聯性之研究 / The Relationship between the Mortgage Lending Variables and Housing Markets江佳玟, Chiang, Chia-Wen Unknown Date (has links)
近十年來,因投機需求、游資充斥等原因使台灣房價成長之上升趨勢明顯高於許多國家,房屋交易方面則呈現明顯起伏不定之走勢,台灣政府單位為達成物價穩定、金融穩定與經濟成長等目標並且避免金融危機再度發生,透過制定及執行貸款管制政策,期能有效抑制假性需求與房價上漲趨勢。
然而,貸款管制是否能有效抑制房價,過去未有文獻針對購屋貸款管制工具與房價及住宅交易量觀察長期趨勢關係並缺乏整體性探討,故本研究欲藉由探究貸款成數與購屋貸款餘額占國內生產毛額比率與住宅市場間是否存在長期、短期影響或其間因果關係,以得知是否政策的投入能夠確切影響標的、達成目標。
本文嘗試以 2000 年第一季至2016 年第二季之貸款管制工具變數及總體經變數資料,運用 ARDL Bounds Test、ARDL-ECM 模型及Toda and Yamamoto 因果檢定探究購屋貸款管制變數對於台灣住宅市場間之長期與短期動態關係及因果關係。研究結果顯示,購屋貸款管制變數對於房價及交易量有顯著之影響,尤其對於住宅交易量方面具有較為明顯之效果,因此,期望透過本研究對於台灣未來金融、房市政策規劃提出建議。 / Over the past decade, an abundance of money and speculative demand from the Quantitative Easing (QE) monetary policy drove the housing price in Taiwan to rise
sharply, and the volume of housing market is unstable. To stabilize the financial markets, the government have formulated policies on housing markets and mortgage control to curb rising housing prices.
In order to understand the effect of mortgage control on curbing housing price, this study examines the long-run and short-run relationship and causality effect among loan-to-value ratio and mortgage-to-GDP ratio and housing markets. This study used ARDL model, bounds test and Toda and Yamamoto causality to analyze quarterly data over the
period 2000-Q1 to 2016-Q2. Empirical results show that mortgage control has significant effects on the housing market. Results further shown that the influence on the volume is more obvious than on the price. Results of this study provide precious policy implications for future housing financial sectors.
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Housing market regulation and labor market regulation / Régulation du marché du logement et du marché du travailBonleu, Antoine 04 November 2016 (has links)
Le premier chapitre montre l'interdépendance sur le marché locatif entre le formalisme procédural (FP) et les réseaux sociaux locaux. Tandis que le FP augmente le coût de résolution des conflits juridiques entre propriétaires et locataires, les réseaux sociaux présentent l'avantage de pouvoir régler un conflit sans la justice. Le FP permet de rendre plus intéressant aux yeux du propriétaire les individus appartenant à un réseau social. Le deuxième chapitre explique l'importance du soleil sur la demande de régulation du marché locatif. Les pays d'Europe du sud très ensoleillés sont attractifs de par leur douceur de vie. Cette immigration potentielle augmente la tension sur le marché locatif. Pour la réduire, les individus d'Europe du sud développent une complémentarité entre capital social local et régulation. Cette stratégie explique un équilibre méditerranéen où le capital social local et le FP sont élevés. A contrario, l'absence d'attractivité des pays faiblement ensoleillés explique un équilibre anglo-saxon et scandinave aux caractéristiques opposées. Le troisième chapitre explique le soutien pour la régulation du marché du travail par la présence de régulations sur le marché locatif. Lorsque ce dernier est très régulé, les propriétaires sélectionnent les locataires selon leur capacité à payer le loyer. Protéger les contrats à durée indéterminée oblige les entreprises à sélectionner les travailleurs et permet alors aux propriétaires de mieux estimer le risque individuel de licenciement. Nous construisons un modèle où les individus sans emploi demandent plus de régulations et de protections en dépit de l’augmentation du chômage et de la part des contrats temporaires. / The first contribution studies the complementarities between the strength of social networks and the stringency of procedural formalism. While procedural formalism increases the cost of legal dispute resolution between landlords and tenants, social networks allow conflicts to be solved without recourse to justice. Procedural formalism is thus a way to provide a market advantage to local individuals embedded in dense local social networks at the expense of nonlocal agents without access to such networks.The second contribution deals with the importance of the sun on the demand for regulation in the rental market. Southern European countries with good climate amenities are attractive by their mildness of life. This potential immigration increases the pressure on the rental market. To reduce it, individuals in Southern Europe develop complementarities between social capital and local regulations. This strategy explains a Mediterranean equilibrium characterized by high levels of local social capital and procedural formalism. Conversely, the lack of attractiveness of countries with low climate amenities leads to an Anglo-Saxon and Scandinavian equilibrium with opposite features.The third contribution explains the support for labor market regulation by the presence of regulations on the rental market. When the rental market is very regulated, landlords screen applicants with regard to their ability to pay the rent. Protecting regular jobs offers a second-best technology to sort workers, thereby increasing the rental market size. We provide a model where non-employed workers demand protected jobs despite unemployment and the share of short-term jobs increase.
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Trh nemovitostí a reakce měnové autority v kontextu přebytečné likvidity / The housing market and the reactions of the monetary authority in the context of liquidity surplusČechura, Jakub January 2016 (has links)
The diploma thesis is mainly focused on the housing market and central bank's (supervisory authority's) potential reactions to risks arising from it. The thesis provides a broader perspective of the housing market so that the first part is devoted to the liquidity surplus as it is closely connected with the housing market. The next part of the thesis focuses on housing price bubbles and subsequent bursts as well as the tools of the central bank (supervisory authority) to mitigate such risks. It is discussed whether using monetary policy to affect house prices that do not reflect fundamentals is advisable. Macroprudential policy with its tools is introduced as an alternative. Special attention is paid to the Czech housing market.
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Riskhantering : En kvalitativ studie om hur storbankernas privatrådgivare hanterar risker och osäkerheter vid ett bostadslån / Risk Management : A qualitative study of how the major banks private adviser manages risks and uncertainties in a mortgage loanBahjat, Mina, Andrade, Matilda January 2016 (has links)
Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka vilka risker de fyra storbankerna tar vid kreditgivningen av bostadslån och hur privatrådgivare hanterar risker och osäkerheter som kan uppstå vid ett bostadslån. Teoretisk referensram: Studiens teoretiska referensram består av teorier och vetenskapliga antaganden, där de flesta behandlar begreppet risk. Det presenteras även vetenskapliga artiklar som tar upp vad tidigare forskning bidragit med i detta område. Metod: Denna studie utgår från ett hermeneutiskt förhållningssätt och präglas av en deduktiv forskningsansats. Undersökningen tillämpar den kvalitativa forskningsmetoden och datainsamlingen sker genom semistrukturerade personliga intervjuer. Studiens urval är privatrådgivare från storbankerna Nordea i Tumba, Swedbank i Tumba, Handelsbanken i S:t Eriksplan och SEB i Sergelstorg. Empiri: I empirin presenteras den insamlade datan från de fyra genomförda personliga intervjuerna. Respondenterna som deltagit i intervjuerna och bidragit med värdefull information är anonyma. / Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine what risks the four major banks takes when they give credit of a mortgage loan and how the private adviser manages risks and uncertainties that can arise in a mortgage loan. Theoretical Framework: The theoretical framework consists of theories and scientific assumptions, most of which deal with the concept of risk. It also presents scientific articles dealing with what previous research has contributed in this field. Methodology: This study is based on a hermeneutic approach and is characterized by a deductive research approach. The study applies qualitative research methodology and the data collection is done through semi-structured individual interviews. The study's sample is private advisors from the four major banks that is Nordea in Tumba, Swedbank in Tumba, Handelsbanken in S:t Eriksplan and SEB in Sergelstorg. Result: The empirical analysis presents the data that is collected from the four completed personal interviews. Respondents who participated in the interviews and contributed with valuable information are anonymous. Conclusion: The study shows that the biggest risk that may arise for the bank with a mortgage loan is the customer's repayment capacity if it becomes impaired due to various factors. Private advisors manages risks by creating an understanding of the customer about what a mortgage loan means and provide advice and recommendations to prevent an impaired ability to repay.
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Nájemné bytu v Uherském Hradišti a faktory, které je ovlivňují / Flat Rents in Uherské Hradiště and Factors that Influence themDubovská, Alena January 2013 (has links)
The diploma thesis describes and maps the overall rental market in city Uherské Hradiště and is made up of text and graphs. First gives a general view of rental housing and then compares the amount of the rentals of apartments in various parts of the city and consider amendments to the lease. Collected data are divided into apartments for the 1 + 1 and 1 + kk (kitchen corner), 2 + 1 and 2 + kk, 3 + 1 and 3 + kk, 4 +1 and 4 + kk and larger. For each group creates a map of rents.
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Nájemné bytů v Hodoníně a faktory, které je ovlivňují / Apartment Rents in Hodonín and the Factors Affecting ThemCupalová, Žaneta January 2014 (has links)
This master´s thesis concerns in contemporary trade situation of flat and house rental in the city of Hodonín. It is focused on those factors that influence the amount of demanded rent and how the price gets changed due to their influence. It describes the historical development of housing in our area. Also, it considers flat and house rental in general and pays attention mainly to the mentioned area. It compares the amount of a usual flat rent of flats from the data collected in a market research and judges changes of its amount of flats type 1+1 and 1+kk, 2+1 and 2+kk, 3+1 and 3+kk, 4+1 and 4+kk. By data processing, overviews of rented flats and their summarization into charts and graphical as well as textual evaluation are set up. Maps marked with areas with the same rents are created for particular flat cathegories.
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Vývojová typologie nejrychleji rostoucí části metropolitních USA v desetiletí mezi roky 2000 a 2010 / The Developmental Typology of the Fastest Growing Portion of the Metropolitan USA in the Decade from 2000 to 2010Kohl, Ondřej January 2011 (has links)
This text was written as a diploma thesis of master's degree study course "Regional and political geography." It focuses on the development between the last two censuses, of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the United States. The economic crisis of the late 2000s has been a major turning point of the decade. The goal of the research was to create a developmental typology of the fastest growing metros. The text analyzes "classifiers" data in order to decide what developmental types have been among the metros. A major factor contributing to high population gains in the fastest growing metros was the migration induced by the housing bubble.
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Effects of higher capital costs in local housing markets: Study in Täby, Upplands-Bro and Upplands Väsby municipality / Effekter av högre kapitalkostander på lokala bostadsmarknader: Studie i Täby, Upplands-Bro och Upplands VäsbyNiklasson, Beatrice, Nordin, Linnéa January 2016 (has links)
This bachelor thesis aims to study the relationship between higher capital costs and the households' ability to repay their loans as well as how this affects the housing market. The work studies three areas in three different municipalities in the Stockholm region. The limitations for this report were that it primarily focused on areas that have relatively new housing developments where the interest rate was the sole alternating variable. Today, the interest rates for housing loans are very low which has resulted in that Swedish people has record breaking high leverages. Recently, a new amortization requirement was adopted. This will affect all households when they take new loans with an LTV of 50 percent. House prices in Sweden are at a historically high level, especially in the Stockholm region. Households’ expectations play a large impact on prices, and some experts believe that the market today is overvalued and that we are in a housing bubble, which, if it bursts, can bring negative impact on the housing market. Consequently, migration and housing demands has not previously been seen at these levels in Stockholm. In this paper, we intend to examine how rising interest rates will affect households with different leverage ratios in three different municipalities in the Stockholm county region. Utilizing data from sources such as InsightOne and Konsumentverket among others a spreadsheet was created comparing four different typical households that reflect the most common household composition within the selected municipalities. The disposable income, after all expenses for accommodation and necessities accounted for, will be examined. We will also analyze how these households would cope in a scenario where changing fundamentals give households higher housing costs and further how the selected municipalities, all of which have a relatively high rate of construction, would be affected by a sudden drop in prices on the market. A spreadsheet with data from Statistics Sweden was also set up to investigate the percentage of all households in Stockholm that have the same capital costs as a custom range of the selected mosaichouseholds’. Our results show that not all households could cope with increased housing costs such as higher interest rates among other factors. According to the calculated budget estimate for each typical household, it was concluded that some households would be unable to cover their monthly necessities. In a scenario where this would become reality, the households with a high leverage and a high interest rate would have a much smaller amount of money to live on each month. This would lead to a reduction in consumption and a decrease in demand for housing, which would result in a less secure position in the housing market and force households to reassess its choice of timing for this type of investment. Ultimately this could lead to vacancies in the municipalities we investigated that are located quite a bit outside the city center. Based on our results, we consider the hypothesis proven; due to half of the mosaic households in the study reflecting a deficit in their budget when the leverage and interest rates peaked at high levels. Based on the income statistics from SCB, we could also deduce that 49.8 percent of all households in the Stockholm region displayed a lower annual income than the investigated mosaic households. Consequently, these households would demonstrate a greater deficit in their budget if their housing costs rose. / Kandidatarbetet syftar till att studera hur högre kapitalkostnader påverkar hushållens betalningsförmåga och vilka effekter det kan få på bostadsmarknaden. I arbetet undersöks tre områden i tre olika kommuner i stockholmsregionen. I rapporten finns begränsningen att räntorna är den enda variabeln som ändras och att det i de områden som undersöks finns relativt nyproducerade bostäder. I dagsläget är räntenivåerna väldigt låga för bostadslån och det har medfört att svenskarna aldrig någonsin har varit så högt belånade. Nyligen har även ett nytt amorteringskrav antagits, vilket kommer att påverka alla hushåll som tar nya lån med en belåningsgrad över 50 procent. Bostadspriserna ligger idag på en historiskt hög nivå och speciellt hög är prisutvecklingen i Stockholmsregionen. Hushållens förväntningar har en stor inverkan på priserna och vissa experter menar att marknaden idag är övervärderad och att vi befinner oss i en bostadsbubbla som, om den spricker, kan innebära stora negativa konsekvenser för bostadsmarknaden. Samtidigt har inflyttningen och efterfrågan på bostäder aldrig varit så hög som nu inom Stockholms län. I denna uppsats avser vi att undersöka hur en stigande ränta kan påverka hushåll med olika belåningsgrader i tre olika kommuner inom Stockholms län. Med hjälp av data från bland annat InsightOne och Konsumentverket har en kalkyl för fyra olika typhushåll ställts upp som speglar den vanligaste hushållssammansättningen i de valda områdena. Här kommer sedan den disponibla inkomsten efter att alla utgifter för boende och nödvändigheter är betalade att undersökas. Vi kommer därefter att analysera hur dessa hushåll skulle klara sig i ett scenario där förändrade fundamentala faktorer ger hushållen högre boendekostnader och vidare hur de valda kommunerna, som alla har en relativt hög nybyggnadstakt, skulle komma att påverkas av ett plötsligt prisfall på marknaden. Dessutom har en kalkyl med data från SCB satts upp för att undersöka hur många procent av alla hushåll i Stockholms län som har samma årsinkomst som ett anpassat intervall av de valda mosaichushållen. Våra resultat visar att inte alla hushåll skulle klara av ökade boendekostnader, exempelvis som en följd av högre räntor. De skulle alltså gått med underskott varje månad enligt den budget vi ställt upp för varje mosaichushåll och som redovisar de viktigaste utgifterna ett hushåll med denna sammansättning har. I ett scenario där detta blir verklighet skulle alltså hushåll med en hög belåningsgrad och höga räntor få en betydligt mindre summa pengar att leva på varje månad efter att alla nödvändiga kostnader är betalde, vilket skulle leda till en minskad konsumtion och minskad efterfrågan på bostäder. Detta skulle i sin tur leda till ett osäkrare läge på bostadsmarknaden, vilket skulle få ytterligare hushåll att omvärdera sitt val av tidpunkt för denna typ av investering. I slutändan skulle detta kunna komma att leda till vakanser i de kommuner vi valt att undersöka och som ligger någon eller några mil utanför innerstaden med dess ständigt höga efterfrågan på bostäder. Utifrån våra resultat kan den uppställda hypotesen styrkas. Detta då hälften av de mosaichushåll vi utgick ifrån i undersökningen visade ett underskott i sin budget då ränta och belåningsgrad låg på en hög, om än inte orimlig, nivå. Utifrån inkomststatistiken från SCB kunde vi även utläsa att hela 49.8 procent av alla hushåll inom Stockholms län har en lägre årsinkomst än de undersökta mosaichushållen, vilket innebär att dessa hushåll skulle visa ett större underskott i sin budget om deras boendekostnader ökade.
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Komplettverkauf kommunalen Wohneigentums an internationale Investoren: Governanceanalytische Betrachtung der Folgen für Prozesse der Stadtentwicklung und des WohnungsmarktesKaufmann, Kristin Klaudia 07 October 2015 (has links)
Die Arbeit setzt sich mit der Internationalisierung des Wohnungsmarktes in Deutschland auseinander. Hierbei wird der Frage nachgegangen, wie sich nach dem Komplettverkauf kommunalen Wohneigentums Kommunikation und Zusammenarbeit auf dem Wohnungsmarkt und im Rahmen von Stadtentwicklungsprozessen ändern. Anhand von Fallstudien in Kiel, Osnabrück und Wilhelmshaven werden kommunale und wohnungswirtschaftliche Handlungsstrategien und Interaktionsorientierungen lokaler Akteure miteinander in Beziehung gesetzt. Auch wenn mit Hilfe eines Urban Governance-Ansatzes gewonnene Erkenntnis große Unterschiede bei kommunalen Gestaltungsansprüchen zeigen, ist ein prinzipieller Steuerungsverlust nach der Veräußerung nachweisbar. Vor allem finanzwirtschaftlich orientierte Investoren und ihr geringes investives Interesse führen zu einer nachhaltig geringer werdenden Gestaltungskraft auf Quartiersebene. / Certainly since the late-1990s deregulation as well as local authority debt reduction eventually has begun to take effect on local authority housing. In this context, the owners of public housing sold large quantities of their housing stock as well as whole housing companies.
The sale of publicly owned housing property to international investors creates new opportunities for the housing economy due to different approaches to management and marketing. At the same time, sales to ‘new investors’ also bear risks for housing markets, urban renewal and urban planning.
In this context, local authorities not only face a growing range of actors with increasingly diversified economic interests. But also, in addition, they are expected to initiate processes of integrated urban development in order to respond to structural change and its consequences.
Research into newly emerging and changing relationships between actors in local housing markets is only in its beginnings in the field of regional studies.
This work pu rsues as its key question: Following the complete sale of local authority housing stock, how do approaches, communication as well as strategies for collaboration of key actors in the housing markets develop under conditions of structural change? The focus of the comparative empirical case studies rests on the fields of urban development and the housing market. A comparative case study design with a heuristic-descriptive urban governance approach in Kiel, Osnabrück and Wilhelmshaven was chosen. Corresponding to the knowledge from the detailed evaluation, results and conclusions are to be drawn for the praxis and for further research.
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Financial Stability, Macroeconomic Cycles and Complex Expectation DynamicsHartmann, Florian 07 February 2018 (has links)
The thesis tries to shed light on mechanisms that endanger the macro-financial stability
of economies. For that purpose a modeling framework is set-up which allows for cyclical
behavior on the macro level and does not automatically enforce monotonic convergence
of the dynamics to a stable equilibrium. Thus, the assumption of rational expectation
must be replaced by alternative expectation formation schemes which are more relevant
from an empirical point of view. We start to put forth a modeling approach of a partial,
but crucially important market for the whole economy. As we could learn from the great
recession, activities in the housing market can trigger economy-wide crises when financial
markets are highly interconnected and exert a lasting impact on real markets. The next
step is to construct an integrated macro model which captures the interaction of real and
financial markets with respect to possible destabilizing linkages. Policy instruments can
work then as remedies as long as they are designed in a manner that takes account of
the underlying feedback structure. Step by step the models are extended throughout the
chapters by refinement of the macro-financial structure. A banking sector is introduced
and many issues arising with this addition are discussed. After having addressed several
configurations of the banking sector, the focus is shifted to the expectation formation of
agents. Behavioral traders on the micro level then drive complex dynamics on the macro
level, which eventually feedback on the distribution of different types of trading strategies. We also investigate the implications of such behavioral expectation formations for open economies. Finally, we look at potential instabilities that arise from the supply side of
macroeconomies in the long run. A model with a differentiated labor market structure
and an accumulation mechanism is used to display distributive cycle dynamics and their
stability implications.
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