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Inflation expectations, labour markets and EMUCurto Millet, Fabien January 2007 (has links)
This thesis examines the measurement, applications and properties of consumer inflation expectations in the context of eight European Union countries: France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden. The data proceed mainly from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and are qualitative in nature, therefore requiring quantification prior to use. This study first seeks to determine the optimal quantification methodology among a set of approaches spanning three traditions, associated with Carlson-Parkin (1975), Pesaran (1984) and Seitz (1988). The success of a quantification methodology is assessed on the basis of its ability to match quantitative expectations data and on its behaviour in an important economic application, namely the modelling of wages for our sample countries. The wage equation developed here draws on the theoretical background of the staggered contracts and the wage bargaining literature, and controls carefully for inflation expectations and institutional variables. The Carlson-Parkin variation proposed in Curto Millet (2004) was found to be the most satisfactory. This being established, the wage equations are used to test the hypothesis that the advent of EMU generated an increase in labour market flexibility, which would be reflected in structural breaks. The hypothesis is essentially rejected. Finally, the properties of inflation expectations and perceptions themselves are examined, especially in the context of EMU. Both the rational expectations and rational perceptions hypotheses are rejected. Popular expectations mechanisms, such as the "rule-of-thumb" model or Akerlof et al.'s (2000) "near-rationality hypothesis" are similarly unsupported. On the other hand, evidence is found for the transmission of expert forecasts to consumer expectations in the case of the UK, as in Carroll's (2003) model. The distribution of consumer expectations and perceptions is also considered, showing a tendency for gradual (as in Mankiw and Reis, 2002) but non-rational adjustment. Expectations formation is further shown to have important qualitative features.
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Trade follows Hallstein?Gülstorff, Torben 04 November 2016 (has links)
Die deutsche Außenpolitik zur Zeit des Kalten Krieges stellt in historischer wie politikwissenschaftlicher Hinsicht einen Gegenstand dar, der mit gutem Gewissen als wissenschaftlich erschlossen bezeichnet werden kann. Zahlreiche Aufsätze, Artikel und Bücher sind in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten erschienen, welche die deutsche Außenpolitik in Europa, Afrika, Asien, Ozeanien, Amerika, oder auch gleich der Welt als Ganzem, in den Blick genommen haben. Dies gilt sowohl für die Außenpolitik der Bundesrepublik Deutschland als auch für diejenige der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik. Früh – wenn nicht sogar von Beginn an – kam hierbei eine zentrale These, eine Kernthese, zum Vorschein, die, ohne auf Widerstand zu stoßen, Eingang in den historischen und politikwissenschaftlichen Forschungskanon fand und ihn bereits nach kurzer Zeit zu dominieren begann. Die Rede ist von der die deutschen Auslandsaktivitäten angeblich bestimmenden Hallstein-Doktrin und dem mit ihr in engem Zusammenhang stehenden deutsch-deutschen Gegensatz. In dieser Arbeit wird dieser Kernthese, diesem ''Mythos'' der deutschen Außenpolitik, vehement widersprochen. Weder die Hallstein-Doktrin, noch der deutsch-deutsche Gegensatz, sondern nationale ökonomische und internationale geostrategische Interessen haben die deutsche Außenpolitik – und darüber hinaus auch die gesamten deutschen Auslandsaktivitäten, der BRD wie der DDR – maßgeblich bestimmt. Zur Stützung dieser Gegenthese werden in der vorliegenden Studie die staatlichen, wirtschaftlichen und gesellschaftlichen Aktivitäten West- und Ostdeutschlands in neun zentralafrikanischen Staaten zwischen 1945 und 1975 kritisch dargelegt, umfassend analysiert und im Hinblick auf mehrere zentrale Thesen zu den deutschen Auslandsaktivitäten ausgewertet. / For decades articles and books have been published on the history of German foreign policy during Cold War. Regardless of whether Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania, America or the world as a whole, the foreign affairs of the Western Federal Republic of Germany and the Eastern German Democratic Republic have been researched and analysed in context of a broad variety of locations. However, even though the list of publications continues to grow, the topic''s theses–especially its main thesis–do not show much progress. Already at an early stage, a central thesis–a core thesis–came to light, met no resistance and entered history''s and political science''s research canons on German foreign policy. This thesis reads: Inner German issues and the non-solved German question were so powerful, they dominated West and East German foreign affairs nearly right from the start. German foreign policy, that was the so-called Hallstein doctrine, that was the so-called German-German contradiction. And all studies–whether of history or political science, whether designed as a case study or as a global approach–confirm this thesis, use it as an integral part of their work–until today. But be that as it may. This study contradicts this thesis, this ''myth'' of German foreign policy. Instead it argues that neither the Hallstein doctrine nor the German-German contradiction, but national economic and international geostrategic interests dominated German foreign policy and German foreign activities–regarding the FRG, the GDR, and Germany as a whole. To proof this thesis, West and East German activities–of the two states, their economies and their societies–in nine Central African states between 1945 and 1975 are observed and analysed. More than a million file pages out of more than a dozen German archives were read to tackle this task–and shed some refreshing new light on the foreign policies of the two German states during Cold War.
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