Submitted by Rafael da Rocha Mendonça Bacciotti (rafael.bacciotti@gmail.com) on 2017-08-13T23:42:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Bacciotti_defesa.pdf: 1094193 bytes, checksum: 7a7f6313d22efa00eb4133077c507ec5 (MD5) / Rejected by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: Falta a ficha catalográfica. on 2017-08-14T13:23:19Z (GMT) / Submitted by Rafael da Rocha Mendonça Bacciotti (rafael.bacciotti@gmail.com) on 2017-08-21T18:34:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Bacciotti_final.pdf: 959318 bytes, checksum: a65761f39f40377669fe2d34280903ab (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2017-08-21T18:55:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Bacciotti_final.pdf: 959318 bytes, checksum: a65761f39f40377669fe2d34280903ab (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-22T12:21:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Bacciotti_final.pdf: 959318 bytes, checksum: a65761f39f40377669fe2d34280903ab (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-11 / A análise do mercado de trabalho em perspectiva histórica com base em séries de alta frequência no Brasil é uma tarefa desafiadora, pois não há uma pesquisa longa, abrangente e ao mesmo tempo compatível em termos metodológicos e conceituais que permita acompanhar o desempenho das diversas variáveis de maneira adequada. Essas questões foram exacerbadas no início de 2016, quando a Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) foi interrompida pelo IBGE. Desde então, a Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua) passou a ser a única referência do instituto sobre o mercado de trabalho em alta frequência. Nesse contexto, este trabalho tem como objetivo retroagir a taxa de desemprego trimestral da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua), iniciada em março de 2012. Duas séries foram geradas com base na metodologia de modelos de espaço de estados e o filtro de Kalman: a primeira iniciada em 1976 e outra em 1984, utilizando-se como referência, nos dois casos, as taxas de desemprego obtidas na PNAD anual e na Pesquisa de Emprego e Desemprego (PED - Dieese). / The analysis of the labor market in historical perspective in Brazil is a challenging task, since there is not a long, comprehensive and at the same time methodologically and conceptually compatible survey that allows monitoring the performance of the various variables in an appropriate manner. These issues were exacerbated in early 2016, when the Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego (PME) was interrupted by IBGE. Since then, the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua) has become the Institute's only reference to the high-frequency labor market monitoring. In this context, the objective of this study is to retropolate the unemployment rate from PNAD Contínua, begun in March 2012. Two series were produced from the state space model methodology, with the Kalman filter, one since 1976 and another since 1984, using as reference the annual PNAD and the Pesquisa de Emprego e Desemprego (PED-Dieese).

Cette thèse étudie les performances du marché du travail dans une économie susceptible de présenter plusieurs équilibres, et les implications d’une telle configuration pour la politique économique. Elle comporte quatre essais, traitant chacun d’un aspect spécifique de cette problématique. En premier lieu, l’analyse économétrique des séries temporelles de taux de chômage de quelques pays de l’OCDE, permettant notamment l’identification des changements de régimes et de leurs caractéristiques, apporte des évidences significatives à l’appui de l’hypothèse d’une multiplicité d’équilibres. En second lieu, on étudie les effets de l’introduction d’un salaire minimum obligatoire et d’une hausse de celui-ci dans un modèle statique de concurrence imparfaite avec négociations salariales au niveau de la firme, le facteur travail étant hétérogène. Si la hausse du salaire minimum est défavorable à l’emploi,l’introduction d’un salaire minimum en présence d’une multiplicité d’équilibres permet d’éliminer l’équilibre Pareto-inférieur. En troisième lieu, on étudie également les implications de l’existence d’équilibres multiples pour les politiques économiques, du fait de l’altération des propriétés dynamiques de l’économie, à travers l’analyse complète d’un modèle dynamique de concurrence imparfaite avec des négociations salariales individuelles et des frictions d’appariement sur le marché du travail. Enfin, on montre grâce à l’outil expérimental dans quelle mesure l’introduction d’une variable dite de tâche solaire, peut être source de défaut de coordination et d’inefficience dans une économie possédant deux équilibres Pareto-ordonnés. / This thesis analyzes the performances of labor market in an economy subject to multiple equilibria and the implications of such a configuration for economic policy. It contains four pieces of research, each dealing with a particular aspect of the general setting. First, the econometric analysis of the unemployment time series for several OECD countries,which allows the identification of regime switches and their characteristics, brings forth some significant evidence that the multiple equilibria framework is relevant. Second, the effect of the implementation and of the rise of the minimum wage are investigated through a static model, assuming imperfect competition, heterogeneous labor input and wage negotiations at the firm level. Though minimum wage hikes have an adverse effect on employment, the implementation of a binding minimum wage turns out to be an efficient tool for excluding the Pareto- inferior equilibrium. Third economic policy conditions are also affected because the existence of multiple equilibria alters the dynamic properties of the economy. This case has been investigated in the framework of a fully dynamic model assuming imperfect competition individual wage negotiations and matching frictions. Finally, a coordination game experiment confirms that the introduction of a sunspot can be a source of coordination failure and inefficiency in an economy with two Pareto-ranked equilibria.

The objective of this thesis is to analyze and verify the existence of causality between employment rate, unemployment rate as independent variable and fertility rate as dependent variable. Two stated hypotheses are being verified within this thesis. First of them says that by decreasing employment rate also the fertility rate decreases. Second says that decreasing unemployment rate has an impact on growth of fertility rate. The final part of essay deals with today´s often discussed concept of work life balance which in many countries supports high economical activity of women and higher fertility simultaneously. It draws attention on positives of alternative work arrangements as well as on negatives and deficits which goes together with its practicing. In the end of the thesis different possibilities of effective work life balance management are suggested.

This paper aims to explore the relationship of social spending and the economic development of the country or region. Work in the first, theoretical part deals with basic theories of economic growth and their view of the state expenditure on social policy. Due attention is also paid to the basic concepts and types of social policies that significantly affect the size of social spending in the marketing area. As part of the theoretical work will be fundamental characteristics of the measuring instruments for economic growth and social spending. In the second, analytical, part of the thesis will deal with empirical data comparing the economic development with the evolution of the size of social spending in several selected countries. The analysis of this part of the work will be characteristic of otherfactors, the relationship of economic growth and social spending determine, influence, and to some extent and explain, such as unemployment, public revenues and public state debt.

The diploma thesis gives a detailed analysis of the Slovak labour market. The beginning of the thesis includes political and economic development of an independent Slovak state since the Czechoslovak separation until a current situation. The rest of the thesis is devoted to the analysis of the labour market situation. Since its major problem is a high unemployment rate, the thesis gives an overview and deeper analysis of its various aspects. Furthermore, the indicators which influence the existence of the unemployment rate are to be found. The end of the thesis sums up the most problematic areas of Slovak labour market. In addition, the necessary steps which need to be done in order to reach an improvement are mentioned.

Abstract: The doctor's dissertation paper addresses the social problem, how business units should use the standard economic tools to prevent crisis. The importance of the problem is supported by the fact, that last year more than eleven thousand economic entities in the Czech Republic became insolvent. The Set of Tools for Corporate Crisis Prevention shall help to better adjust the internal control mechanisms, using which businesses could better prevent crisis. Application of this Set of Tools for Corporate Crisis Prevention is verified based on two completely different companies. The dissertation addresses the question of how use standard tools such as loan and leasing for crisis prevention, possibly secure the recovery of growth opportunities. This support is implemented by using an external financial institution, or the Intercompany bank. In the chapter entitled "intercompany bank", I describe the basic principles of operation and its importance for internal control. This internal organization has been used in many companies, but today is back to support the sales department and help reduce risk associated with the greater indebtedness of the company. I am describing the Intercompany bank in the context of internal processes and forms of cooperation with the sales department. Functionality of the intercompany bank is supplemented with examples from practice. The chapter called "Micro-enterprise approach of the crisis" is complemented by the complexity of internal financial perspective to company's management. This chapter describes three main sources of the company crisis from a microeconomic perspective. It is decreasing demand, the impact of interest rate exchanges on corporate governance and the impact of exchange rate changes on the financial stability of the company. The analytical part of presented dissertation thesis deals with development of insolvency proposal, bankruptcy, and reorganization proposals in The Czech Republic between 2008 and 2013. The main target is finding the causal dependences between insolvency requirements in the Insolvency Register and a few key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, industrial production growth and the amount of loans granted to the corporate sector. For a more comprehensive view of insolvency arrangement of The Czech Republic is accompanied by description of the legislative settings in The UK, Germany and France. Keywords: Bankruptcy proposals, Bankrupt, Company crisis, Exchange rate, Industrial production, Insolvency, Insolvency proposals, GDP, Leasing, Reorganization, Unemployment rate.

L’objet de cette recherche est d’identifier et analyser les facteurs déterminants de l’évolution du capital-investissement dans l’Europe de l’Est. De plus, notre travail compare les déterminants de LBO, respectivement de l’activité de VC dans les pays d’Europe de l’Est. Le modèle empirique comprend de nombreux déterminants déjà testés dans des études précédentes ainsi que de nouvelles variables telles que la productivité et l’indice de corruption, que nous considérons comme des facteurs importants pour expliquer l’évolution des investissements en capital-investissement en Europe de l’Est. Nos résultats confirment les hypothèses existantes concernant l’importance de certains déterminants sur l’évolution des investissements en capital-investissement en Europe de l’Est. Cependant, dans le contexte de la dernière crise, de nouveaux facteurs sont apparus comme importants pour le marché du capital investissement en Europe, tels que la productivité ou la corruption. La dernière partie de cette recherche montrent que les sociétés de capital-investissement en Europe de l’Est préfèrent les sorties à travers des fusions et acquisitions, suivies des introductions en bourse. De plus, nous validons une relation d'équilibre à long terme entre les investissements en capital-investissement, les introductions en bourse et les fusions et acquisitions. Le test de causalité de Granger montre l'existence d'une causalité unidirectionnelle du nombre de fusions et acquisitions par rapport au volume des investissements en capital-investissement en Europe de l'Est. / The purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the determinants of the evolution of private equity in Eastern Europe. Additionally, this paper compares the determinants of leveraged buyout activity, respectively venture capital activity in Eastern European countries. The empirical model of the first two sections includes many of the determinants already tested in previous studies and also new variables such as productivity and corruption index which we consider important factors in explaining the evolution of private equity investments in Europe. Our results confirm existing hypotheses regarding the importance of some determinants on the evolution of private equity investments in Europe. However, in the context of the last crisis new factors emerged as important for the private equity market in Europe such as productivity or corruption. The last section of this work tests the existence of a causal link between the evolution of private equity and the number of divestments of private equity funds in Eastern Europe during the financial crisis. Our results show that Eastern European private equity firms prefer M&A exits followed by IPOs. Furthermore, we validate a long-term equilibrium relationship between private equity investments, IPO and M&A. The Granger causality test shows the existence of a unidirectional causality of the number of M&A to the volume of private equity investments in Eastern Europe.

This thesis is focused on the topic of job opportunities for graduates after the graduation on the labor market in the Czech Republic and possible preparation for this issue during the studies too. The object of this work is the participation of students on their career paths in the future and the competitiveness of their human capital. The position of graduates in the history of the Czech Republic is various. This thesis describes the university degree during the history and present of the Czech Republic. We're talking about the time period of socialism, then the Velvet Revolution and the period of tertiary education in a democratic society. These periods are described using the academic sources, theories and opinions. The thesis focuses on the time horizon of ten years from 2006 to 2015 in the research study. By the research author examines the various strategies and attitudes of students confronted with this issue. Respondents of the target group of graduates are interviewed for their actions during the tertiary education. The world is changing. There is technological progress, globalization and the countries are developing in all ways of socio-economic units. The individual actors of the educational system in tertiary education are adapting and developing similarly. They are adapting to the...

Les choses avancent de plus en plus rapidement autour de nous. Les systèmes évoluent et nous permettent même dans certains domaines de prédire l’avenir, ce que plusieurs scientifiques s’avèrent à tenter dans le monde économique. Différents modèles sont pensés de façon à prévoir les variations à venir dans l’économie et ainsi pouvoir s’y préparer, mais ces modèles prévus pour lire l’avenir sont-ils vraiment efficaces? Les points de vue varient selon l’auteur. Alors que certains pensent qu’il est impossible que les prédictions soient précises, d’autres demeurent plus optimistes et croient en la capacité des modèles de prédictions de s’adapter. Afin de tester le tout nous avons sélectionner un ensemble de 44 pays à travers le monde et tester l’efficacité des prédictions à travers les années sur 4 facteurs macroéconomiques. Les facteurs choisis furent les variations du taux d’intérêt, le taux de chômage, la balance économique et les taux d’intérêt à court terme. Nous avons basé nos tests sur deux hypothèses, soit une valeur de 1 pour le coefficient de notre variable dans notre régression linéaire ainsi qu’une valeur de zéro pour le coefficient de la constante. Une fois les tests effectués nous nous apercevons que pour aucun de nos facteurs l’ensemble d’observations présentées ne permettait de ne pas rejeter l’une ou l’autre de nos hypothèses démontrant une inefficacité du marché virtuel dans notre étude. En testant uniquement pour des données plus récentes pour le taux de chômage nous avons également pu remarquer que le tout améliorait l’efficacité des prédictions sans pour autant permettre de répondre aux hypothèses. / Things are moving faster and faster around us. Systems evolve and even allow us in some areas to predict the future, which many scientists are trying to do in the economic world. Different models are designed to predict future variations in the economy and thus be able to prepare for them, but are these models designed to read the future really efficient? Views vary by author. While some believe it is impossible for predictions to be accurate, others remain more optimistic and believe in the ability of prediction models to adapt. In order to test everything, we selected a set of 44 countries around the world and tested the effectiveness of the predictions over the years on 4 macroeconomic factors. The factors chosen were changes in the interest rate, the unemployment rate, the economic balance and short-term interest rates. We based our tests on two assumptions, namely a value of 1 for the coefficient of our variable in our linear regression as well as a value of zero for the coefficient of the constant. Once the tests have been carried out, we realize that for none of our factors the set of observations presented did not allow us to reject one or the other of our hypotheses demonstrating an inefficiency of the virtual market in our study. By testing only for more recent data for the unemployment rate, we also noticed that the whole change improved the effectiveness of the predictions without making it possible to meet the hypotheses.

近年來由於亞洲金融風暴的肆虐，產生經濟不景氣，使得失業的問題逐漸受到社會所關注，本論文企圖以三個時間序列方法：1.單變量ARIMA模型；2.轉換函數(TF)模型；3.向量自迴歸(VAR)模型來建立台灣地區的失業率時間序列預測模型。資料則是利用台灣地區民國75年1月至民國87年12月的失業率月資料作實證預測分析，為了知道資料是否來自時間趨勢模型，測試是否經過差分消掉一部份的記憶會發生預測的誤差，所以先以多步(multi-step)預測和一步(one-step)預測的方法計算出民國88年1月至88年12月預測值，而預測評估準則則採用(1)MAPE、RMSPE、MPE及泰爾不等係數(THEIL)；(2)變化方向誤差與趨勢變化誤差兩大方向來做預測比較。最後將算出的12期預測值與行政院主計處整體統計資料庫中所得到的失業率實際值利用預測評估準則做比較，結果發現一步預測法較多步預測法準確；而向量自迴歸模型(VAR)在大部份的預測期數上有較小的MAPE、RMSPE、MPE及THEIL值，因為此VAR模型考慮了在變數之間的共整合現象，有助於模型的預測，所以有較好預測的能力；反而是較複雜的ARIMA模型及轉換模型預測能力稍差一點。 / In this thesis, we plan to construct three time series models to forecast the Taiwan unemployment Rate. These time series models are ARIMA model、transfer function (TF) model and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The data set consists of monthly observations for the period 75:1-87:12 for unemployment rate. We want to know if the data came from time trend model. First, we use multi-step forecasting and one-step forecasting to calculate 12 forecasted values from 88:01-88:12. Then We compare the prediction performance of these two methods by using：(1) MAPE、RMSPE、MPE and Theil’s Inequality Coefficient (THEIL)；(2) Direction of Change Error and trend Change Error etc. It is found that one-step forecasting is more correct than multi-step forecasting and the forecasting performance of VAR model is improved by explicitly taking account of cointegration between the variables in the model，so VAR model has lower MAPE、RMSPE、MPE and THEIL for most horizons. However，the more parsimonious ARIMA and transfer function models have higher MAPE、RMSPE、MPE for most horizons.