The dissertation consists of four essays that treat different aspects or the evaluation of public policy. Two essays are applications of the travel cost method. In the first of these, recreational travel to the Swedish coast is studied to obtain estimates of the social benefits from reduced eutrophication of the sea. The second travel cost essay attempts at estimating how the probability that a woman will undergo mammographic screening for breast cancer is affected by the distance she has to travel to undergo such an examination. Using these estimated probabilities, the woman's valuation of the examination is obtained. The two other essays deal with automobile taxation. One essay analyzes how taxation and the Swedish eco-labeling system of automobiles have affected the sale of different car models. The last essay treats the effects of taxes and of scrappage premiums on the life length of cars. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 1999

An ever increasing demand for instant and reliable information on modern communication networks forces codewords to operate in a non-asymptotic regime. To achieve reliability for imperfect channels in this regime, codewords need to be retransmitted from receiver to the transmit buffer, aided by a fast feedback mechanism. Large occupancy of this buffer results in longer communication delays. Therefore, codewords need to be designed carefully to reduce transmit queue-length and thus the delay experienced in this buffer. We first study the consequences of physical layer decisions on the transmit buffer occupancy. We develop an analytical framework to relate physical layer channel to the transmit buffer occupancy. We compute the optimal code-rate for finite-length codewords operating over a correlated channel, under certain communication service guarantees. We show that channel memory has a significant impact on this optimal code-rate. Next, we study the delay in small ad-hoc networks. In particular, we find out what rates can be supported on a small network, when each flow has a certain end-to-end service guarantee. To this end, service guarantee at each intermediate link is characterized. These results are applied to study the potential benefits of setting up a network suitable for network coding in multicast. In particular, we quantify the gains of network coding over classic routing for service provisioned multicast communication over butterfly networks. In the wireless setting, we study the trade-off between communications gains achieved by network coding and the cost to set-up a network enabling network coding. In particular, we show existence of scenarios where one should not attempt to create a network suitable for coding. Insights obtained from these studies are applied to design a distributed rate control algorithm in a large network. This algorithm maximizes sum-utility of all flows, while satisfying per-flow end-to-end service guarantees. We introduce a notion of effective-capacity per communication link that captures the service requirements of flows sharing this link. Each link maintains a price and effective-capacity, and each flow maintains rate and dissatisfaction. Flows and links update their respective variables locally, and we show that their decisions drive the system to an optimal point. We implemented our algorithm on a network simulator and studied its convergence behavior on few networks of practical interest.

<p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2013. Sammanfattning jämte 3 uppsatser.</p>

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:48:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 71050100718.pdf.jpg: 12656 bytes, checksum: 70340ae65c49c6fee3a991247dc4ef5b (MD5) 71050100718.pdf.txt: 321921 bytes, checksum: 2a3fd8e10dce647d19b0906c936496e2 (MD5) 71050100718.pdf: 1109092 bytes, checksum: fd5777ca389880dab6d98b5c7c624391 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-02-20T00:00:00Z / The main objective of this thesis is to test the hypothesis that utility preferences that incorporate asymmetric reactions between gains and losses generate better results, when applied to the Brazilian market, than the classic Von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility function. The asymmetric behavior can be computed through the introduction of a disappointment (or loss) aversion coefficient in the classical expected utility function, which increases the impact of losses against gains. This kind of adjustment is supported by recent developments in financial theory, specially those studies that try to solve the violations of the expected utility axioms. The analysis of the implications of such adjustment is made through the comparison of the results regarding the participation of the risky asset (stock market) in the composition of the optimum portfolio (the one that maximizes utility) generated by both types of preferences: expected utility and loss aversion utility functions. The results are then compared with real data from two types of Brazilian investors (pension funds and households) aiming at verifying the capacity of each utility function to replicate real investment data from these investors. The results of the tests show that it is not possible to reject the expected utility function as an adequate representative model for the aggregate behavior of Brazilian pension funds. However, the simulations indicate that this type of function should be rejected as an adequate model to replicate real investment decisions of Brazilian individual investors (households). The behavior of this type of investors can be better replicated by applying a loss aversion utility function. / O principal objetivo deste trabalho é analisar se o uso de preferências que incorporem assimetria na reação do investidor frente a ganhos e perdas permite gerar resultados mais coerentes com o comportamento real de investidores brasileiros na seleção de portfólios ótimos de investimento. Uma das formas de tratar o comportamento assimétrico se dá através da introdução do coeficiente de aversão a perdas (ou ao desapontamento) na função utilidade tradicional, coeficiente este que aumenta o impacto das perdas frente aos ganhos. A aplicação deste ajuste na função utilidade tradicional decorre de recentes avanços na teoria de finanças, mais especificamente daqueles estudos que buscam solucionar as violações dos axiomas da teoria da utilidade esperada, violações estas já demonstradas empiricamente através de testes de laboratório. A análise das implicações do uso deste tipo de função é feita através da comparação dos resultados quanto à participação do ativo com risco (mercado acionário) na composição do portfólio ótimo (aquele que maximiza a utilidade) do investidor gerados por dois tipos de função utilidade: tradicional e com aversão a perdas. Os resultados são comparados com dados reais de participação do mercado acionário nos investimentos totais de dois tipos de investidores brasileiros - fundos de pensão e investidores individuais - visando verificar a adequação dos resultados de cada função em relação ao comportamento destes investidores. Os resultados mostram que não é possível rejeitar a função utilidade tradicional como modelo representativo do comportamento agregado dos fundos de pensão. Por outro lado, as simulações indicam que a função utilidade tradicional deve ser rejeitada como modelo representativo do comportamento dos investidores individuais, sendo o comportamento destes investidores melhor representado por uma função que incorpora aversão a perdas.

In this thesis I explore a novel context sensitive conceptualisation of civic duty according to which the conduct (or misconduct) of elected officials affects whether eligible voters feel either a duty to vote (DTV) or a duty to abstain (DTA). Specifically, I argue that under conditions of corruption the norm of electoral accountability may override peoples’ sense of DTV in which case they instead feel a DTA. This context sensitive account is contrasted with a Kantian account of civic duty according to which eligible voters feel a duty to always vote, regardless of contextual factors. The empirical results provides tentative support for the claim that corruption not only decreases eligible voters’ sense of DTV but also increases their sense of DTA. This thesis thus contributes not only to the advancement of the conceptualisation of civic duty in relation to voter turnout, but its results also has important implications for how the rational choice perspective approaches the cost/benefit analysis commonly associated with the voting decision. In the latter case these results indicate that abstainers too may act out of duty and can therefore be assumed to gain positive utility from their abstention. However, the possibility that abstention (just as voting) yields unique costs and benefits has to my knowledge never been acknowledged in the rational choice literature on voter turnout. I therefore conclude by presenting a novel suggestion of how the potential costs and benefits of abstention can be incorporated into the calculus of voting.

No description available.

Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Theorie der sogenannten stochastischen Vorwärts-Rückwärts-Differentialgleichungen (FBSDE), welche als ein stochastisches Anologon und in gewisser Weise als eine Verallgemeinerung von parabolischen quasi-linearen partiellen Differentialgleichungen betrachtet werden können. Die Dissertation besteht aus zwei Teilen: In dem ersten entwicklen wir die Theorie der sogenannten Entkopplungsfelder für allgemeine mehrdimensionale stark gekoppelte FBSDE. Diese Theorie besteht aus Existenz- sowie Eindeutigkeitsresultaten basierend auf dem Konzept des maximalen Intervalls. Es beinhaltet darüberhinaus Werkzeuge um Regularität von konkreten Problemen zu untersuchen. Insgesamt wird die Theorie für drei Klassen von Problemen entwickelt: In dem ersten Fall werden Lipschitz-Bedingungen an die Parameter des Problems vorausgesetzt, welche zugleich vom Zufall abhängen dürfen. Die Untersuchung der beiden anderen Klassen basiert auf dem ersten. In diesen werden die Parameter als deterministisch vorausgesetzt. Gleichwohl wird die Lipschitz-Stetigkeit durch zwei verschiedene Formen der lokalen Lipschitz-Stetigkeit abgeschwächt. In dem zweiten Teil werden diese abstrakten Resultate auf drei konkrete Probleme angewendet: In der ersten Anwendung wird gezeigt wie globale Lösbarkeit von FBSDE in dem sogenannten nicht-degenerierten Fall untersucht werden kann. In der zweiten Anwendung wird die Lösbarkeit eines gekoppelten Systems gezeigt, welches eine Lösung zu dem Skorokhod''schen Einbettungproblem liefert. Die Lösung wird für den Fall einer allgemeinen nicht-linearen Drift konstruiert. Die dritte Anwendung führt auf Lösbarkeit eines komplexen gekoppelten Vorwärt-Rückwärts-Systems, aus welchem optimale Strategien für das Problem der Nutzenmaximierung in unvollständingen Märkten konstruiert werden. Das System wird in einem verhältnismäßig allgmeinen Rahmen gelöst, d.h. für eine verhältnismäßig allgemeine Klasse von Nutzenfunktion auf den reellen Zahlen. / This thesis deals with the theory of so called forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) which can be seen as a stochastic formulation and in some sense generalization of parabolic quasi-linear partial differential equations. The thesis consist of two parts: In the first we develop the theory of so called decoupling fields for general multidimensional fully coupled FBSDE in a Brownian setting. The theory consists of uniqueness and existence results for decoupling fields on the so called the maximal interval. It also provides tools to investigate well-posedness and regularity for particular problems. In total the theory is developed for three different classes of FBSDE: In the first Lipschitz continuity of the parameter functions is required, which at the same time are allowed to be random. The other two classes we investigate are based on the theory developed for the first one. In both of them all parameter functions have to be deterministic. However, two different types of local Lipschitz continuity replace the more restrictive Lipschitz continuity of the first class. In the second part we apply these techniques to three different problems: In the first application we demonstrate how well-posedness of FBSDE in the so called non-degenerate case can be investigated. As a second application we demonstrate the solvability of a system, which provides a solution to the so called Skorokhod embedding problem (SEP) via FBSDE. The solution to the SEP is provided for the case of general non-linear drift. The third application provides solutions to a complex FBSDE from which optimal trading strategies for a problem of utility maximization in incomplete markets are constructed. The FBSDE is solved in a relatively general setting, i.e. for a relatively general class of utility functions on the real line.

Em ecologia, o comportamento dos animais é freqüentemente estudado para entender melhor suas preferências por diferentes tipos de alimento e habitat. O presente trabalho esta relacionado a este tópico, dividindo-se em três capítulos. O primeiro capitulo refere-se à estimação da função da probabilidade da seleção de recurso (RSPF) comparado com um modelo de escolha discreta (DCM) com uma escolha, usando as estatísticas qui-quadrado para obter as estimativas. As melhores estimativas foram obtidas pelo método DCM com uma escolha. No entanto, os animais não fazem a sua seleção baseados apenas em uma escolha. Com RSPF, as estimativas de máxima verossimilhança, usadas pela regressão logística ainda não atingiram os objetivos, já que os animais têm mais de uma escolha. R e o software Minitab e a linguagem de programação Fortran foram usados para obter os resultados deste capítulo. No segundo capítulo discutimos mais a verossimilhança do primeiro capítulo. Uma nova verossimilhança para a RSPF é apresentada, a qual considera as unidades usadas e não usadas, e métodos de bootstrapping paramétrico e não paramétrico são usados para estudar o viés e a variância dos estimadores dos parâmetros, usando o programa FORTRAN para obter os resultados. No terceiro capítulo, a nova verossimilhança apresentada no capítulo 2 é usada com um modelo de escolha discreta, para resolver parte do problema apresentado no primeiro capítulo. A estrutura de encaixe é proposta para modelar a seleção de habitat de 28 corujas manchadas (Strix occidentalis), assim como a uma generalização do modelo logit encaixado, usando a maximização da utilidade aleatória e a RSPF aleatória. Métodos de otimização numérica, e o sistema computacional SAS, são usados para estimar os parâmetros de estrutura de encaixe. / In ecology, the behavior of animals is often studied to better understand their preferences for different types of habitat and food. The present work is concerned with this topic. It is divided into three chapters. The first concerns the estimation of a resource selection probability function (RSPF) compared with a discrete choice model (DCM) using chi-squared to obtain estimates. The best estimates were obtained by the DCM method. Nevertheless, animals were not selected based on choice alone. With RSPF, the maximum likelihood estimates used with the logistic regression still did not reach the objectives, since the animals have more than one choice. R and Minitab software and the FORTRAN programming language were used for the computations in this chapter. The second chapter discusses further the likelihood presented in the first chapter. A new likelihood for a RSPF is presented, which takes into account the units used and not used, and parametric and non-parametric bootstrapping are employed to study the bias and variance of parameter estimators, using a FORTRAN program for the calculations. In the third chapter, the new likelihood presented in chapter 2, with a discrete choice model is used to resolve a part of the problem presented in the first chapter. A nested structure is proposed for modelling selection by 28 spotted owls (Strix occidentalis) as well as a generalized nested logit model using random utility maximization and a random RSPF. Numerical optimization methods and the SAS system were employed to estimate the nested structural parameters.

Zentraler Gegenstand dieser Dissertation ist die Entwicklung von mathematischen Methoden zur Charakterisierung und Implementierung von optimalen Investmentstrategien eines Kleininvestors auf einem Finanzmarkt. Zur Behandlung dieser Probleme ziehen wir als Hauptwerkzeug Stochastische Rückwärts-Differenzialgleichungen (BSDEs) mit nicht-linearen Drifts heran. Diese Nicht-Lineariäten ordnen sie außerhalb der Standardklasse der Lipschitz-stetigen BSDEs ein und treten häufig in finanzmathematischen Kontrollproblemen auf. Wir charakterisieren das optimale Vermögen und die optimale Investmentstrategie eines Kleininvestors mit Hilfe einer sog. Stochastischen Vorwärts-Rückwärts-Differenzialgleichung (FBSDE), einem System bestehend aus einer stochastischen Vorwärtsgleichung, die vollständig gekoppelt ist an eine Rückwärtsgleichung. Die Festlegung bestimmter Nutzenfunktionen führt uns schließlich zu einer weiteren Klasse von nicht-standard BSDEs, die in unmittelbarem Zusammenhang zu dem sog. Ansatz der stochastischen partiellen Rückwärts-Differenzialgleichungen (BSPDEs) steht. Anschließend entwickeln wir eine Methode zur numerischen Behandlung von quadratischen BSDEs, die auf einem stochastischen Analogon der Cole-Hopf-Transformation basiert. Wir studieren weiterhin eine Klasse von BSDEs, deren Drifts explizite Pfadabhängigkiten aufweisen und leiten mehrere analytische Eigenschaften her. Schließlich studieren wir Dualdarstellungen für Optimalen Mehrfachstoppprobleme. Wir leiten Martingal-Dualdarstellungen her, die die Grundlage für die Entwicklung von Regressions-basierten Monte Carlo Simulationsalgorithmen bilden, die schnell und effektiv untere und obere Schranken berechnen. / This thesis elaborates on the wealth maximization problem of a small investor who invests in a financial market. Key tools for our studies come across in the form of several classes of BSDEs with particular non-linearities, casting them outside the standard class of Lipschitz continuous BSDEs. We first give a characterization of a small investor''s optimal wealth and its associated optimal strategy by means of a systems of coupled equations, a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE) with non-Lipschitz coefficients, where the backward component is of quadratic growth. We then examine how specifying concrete utility functions give rise to another class of non-standard BSDEs. In this context, we also investigate the relationship to a modeling approach based on random fields techniques, known by now as the backward stochastic partial differential equations (BSPDEs) approach. We continue with the presentation of a numerical method for a special type of quadratic BSDEs. This method is based on a stochastic analogue to the Cole-Hopf transformation from PDE theory. We discuss its applicability to numerically solve indifference pricing problems for contingent claims in an incomplete market. We then proceed to BSDEs whose drifts explicitly incorporate path dependence. Several analytical properties for this type of non-standard BSDEs are derived. Finally, we devote our attention to the problem of a small investor who is equipped with several exercise rights that allow her to collect pre-specified cashflows. We solve this problem by casting it into the language of multiple optimal stopping and develop a martingale dual approach for characterizing the optimal possible outcome. Moreover, we develop regression based Monte Carlo algorithms which simulate efficiently lower and upper price bounds.

Submitted by Paulo César Coimbra Lisbôa (pc.coimbra@gmail.com) on 2010-11-11T01:39:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD_Thesis_Coimbra_v1.pdf: 516617 bytes, checksum: c44a6f3efb7c504da91a6f20e0a95b3f (MD5) / Rejected by Andrea Virginio Machado(andrea.machado@fgv.br), reason: Conforme conversamos, peço fazer a alteração para acesso livre. Andrea on 2010-11-11T14:03:11Z (GMT) / Submitted by Paulo César Coimbra Lisbôa (pc.coimbra@gmail.com) on 2010-11-11T14:17:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD_Thesis_Coimbra_v1.pdf: 516617 bytes, checksum: c44a6f3efb7c504da91a6f20e0a95b3f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Andrea Virginio Machado(andrea.machado@fgv.br) on 2010-11-16T11:21:16Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD_Thesis_Coimbra_v1.pdf: 516617 bytes, checksum: c44a6f3efb7c504da91a6f20e0a95b3f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2010-11-17T10:49:20Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 PhD_Thesis_Coimbra_v1.pdf: 516617 bytes, checksum: c44a6f3efb7c504da91a6f20e0a95b3f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-11-30 / Contaminação da confiança é um caso especial de incerteza Knightiana ou ambiguidade na qual o tomador de decisões está diante de não apenas uma única distribuição de probabilidades, mas sim de um conjunto de distribuições de probabilidades. A primeira parte desta tese tem o propósito de fornecer uma caracterização da contaminação da confiança e então apresentar um conjunto de axiomas comportamentais simples sob os quais as preferências de um tomador de decisões é representada pela utilidade esperada de Choquet com contaminação da confiança. A segunda parte desta tese apresenta duas aplicações econômicas de contaminação da confiança: a primeira delas generaliza o teorema de existência de equilíbrio de Nash de Dow e Werlang (o que permite apresentar uma solução explícita para o paradoxo segundo o qual os jogadores de um jogo do dilema dos prisioneiros com um número infinito de repetições não agem de acordo com o esperado pelo procedimento da indução retroativa) e a outra estuda o impacto da contaminação da confiança na escolha de portfolio. / Contamination of confidence is a special case of Knightian uncertainty or ambiguity in which the decision maker faces not simple probability measure but a set of probability measures. The first part of this thesis has the purpose to provide a characterization of the contamination of confidence and then present a simple set of behavioral axioms under which the decision maker’s preference is represented by the Choquet expected utility with contamination of confidence. The second part of this thesis presents two economic applications of the contamination of confidence: the first of them generalizes Dow and Werlang’s existence Theorem of Nash equilibrium under uncertainty (which enables to present an explicit solution to the paradox on which players in a finitely repeated prisoners’ dilemma breaks down backward induction) and the other studies the impact of the contamination of confidence in the portfolio choice.