La thèse comporte trois parties, dont l’objet d’étude est l’immobilier soit en s’intéressant directement au marché immobilier résidentiel parisien, soit indirectement en analysant les REITs dont l’actif sous-jacent est l’immobilier. La première partie porte sur l’examen des facteurs macroéconomiques et financiers qui ont influencé, au cours de la période 1996-2010, les prix résidentiels à Paris en appliquant un modèle VAR (vector autoregressive). Dans la deuxième partie, nous analysons, au cours de la période 2007-2012, l’interaction entre les rendements des REITS et les facteurs macroéconomiques/financiers dans dix pays développés (les Etats-Unis, le Canada, l’Australie, l’Europe, la Zone Euro, le Japon, Hong-Kong, la France, le Royaume-Uni et l’Allemagne) en appliquant un modèle VAR. Les REITs investissent sur l’immobilier, mais ils sont cotés sur un marché boursier. Par conséquent, ils héritent des caractéristiques à la fois de l’immobilier et des actions. Ce caractère hybride des REITs nous conduit à nous interroger sur leur risque et le rôle qu’ils peuvent jouer dans la gestion de portefeuille. C’est pourquoi dans la troisième partie nous examinons, au cours de la période 2001-2012, l’effet des deux composantes du risque (bêta et le risque idiosyncratique) et certains facteurs spécifiques aux REITs (taille, rapport Actif Net Comptable / valeur de marché et la mesure d’illiquidité) sur les rendements des REITs européens (la France, l’Allemagne, le Royaume-Uni, les Pays-Bas et l’Italie) en appliquant le modèle à trois facteurs de Fama et French et la méthodologie de Fama et MacBeth. / The thesis consists of three parts, whose purpose is the real estate market either being interested directly in the residential real estate market in Paris, or indirectly by analyzing REITs, whose underlying asset is the real estate. In the first part entitled “Which Macroeconomics and Financial Factors Affect Real Estate Prices in Paris”, we employ a vector autoregressive (VAR) model in order to examine, during the period 1996-2010, the relation between residential prices in Paris and several macroeconomic/financial factors. In the second part entitled “How Legislation, REIT System and Taxes Influence REITs Returns Sensitivity to Macroeconomic and Financial Factors? An International Perspective”, we analyze, by applying a VAR model, during the period 2007-2012, dynamic interactions among REITs returns and macroeconomic factors for ten developed countries (the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, Eurozone, Japan, Hong Kong, France, Britain and Germany). REITs invest in real estate and they are publicly traded. Thus they inherit the characteristics of both real estate and stocks. This hybrid nature of REITs reveals the importance of their risk and the role they can play in portfolio management. Therefore, in the third part entitled “Cross-Sectional Expected European REITs Returns : does Volatility Matters ?”, we investigate, during the period 2001-2012, the effect of the two components of risk (beta and idiosyncratic risk) and some specific factors of REITs (size, Net Asset Value to Market Value and illiquidity measure) on European REITs returns (France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands and Italy) by applying the Fama and French model and cross-sectional regressions.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2017-02-09T15:42:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Kim Ellwanger_.pdf: 684291 bytes, checksum: d1d5fc43932bdc9487ea0ff3d7798787 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-02-09T15:42:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Kim Ellwanger_.pdf: 684291 bytes, checksum: d1d5fc43932bdc9487ea0ff3d7798787 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-22 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar o desempenho da política monetária com o regime de metas de inflação em cinco países da América Latina, no período entre 2002 a 2014. Os países são Brasil, Chile, Colômbia, México e Peru. As taxas de inflação têm sido baixas e as variáveis econômicas reais, como o crescimento econômico e a taxa de desemprego, têm sido satisfatórias. Estima-se um modelo vetorial de correção de erros (VAR/VEC) para cada país, com a intensão de se analisar o impacto da taxa de juros nas demais variáveis. As evidências empíricas encontradas nesse estudo sugerem que para o Brasil e o Chile a taxa de câmbio é um importante canal de transmissão da política monetária. De acordo com a análise de decomposição da variância, os fatores que influenciam a taxa de inflação são diferentes para as cinco economias. A análise na taxa de inflação revela que a taxa de juros é importante para explicar a taxa de inflação no Brasil e no México; já no Chile, México e Peru a taxa de inflação está fortemente associada a sua própria dinâmica. A taxa de juros demonstrou ser mais eficaz no Chile, México e Peru para controlar e reduzir as pressões inflacionárias. No período, os países obtiveram ganhos expressivos no que se refere ao crescimento econômico e também na diminuição da taxa de desemprego, e a taxa de inflação tem sido controlada. Indicando que este regime monetário tem apresentado resultados positivos para as economias selecionadas. / The objective of this study is to investigate the monetary policy performance with inflation targeting regime in five Latin American countries, between 2002 and 2014. The countries are Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Inflation rates have been low and real economic variables, such as economic growth and the unemployment rate, have been satisfactory. A vector error correction model (VAR / VEC) is estimated for each country, with the aim of analyzing the impact of the interest rate on the other variables. The empirical evidence in this study suggests that, for Brazil and Chile, the exchange rate is an important transmission channel for monetary policy. According to the analysis of variance decomposition, the factors that influence the inflation rate are different for the five economies. The analyses in the inflation rate reveals that the interest rate is important to explain the inflation rate in Brazil and Mexico; however, in Chile, Mexico and Peru inflation rate is strongly associated with its own dynamics. The interest rate has proven to be more effective in Chile, Mexico and Peru to control and reduce inflationary pressures. During the period, the countries obtained significant gains in terms of economic growth, reduction of the unemployment rate, and the inflation rate has been controlled it. Indicating that this monetary regime has presented positive results for the selected economies.

La thèse étudie et met en évidence les mésalignements (déviation du taux de change réel par rapport à sa valeur d'équilibre) du taux de change pour un certain nombre de pays des deux zones franc CFA, à savoir la Côte d'Ivoire et le Mali pour l'UEMOA, le Tchad, la République Centrafricaine et le Cameroun pour la CEMAC. En fait, il s'agit de savoir si l'organisation des unions monétaires en change fixe avec l'euro, avec leurs règles monétaires et les règles de convergence budgétaires adoptées ne conduisent pas à une surévaluation structurelle et chronique des taux de change réels des pays qui seraient préjudiciables à leur croissance ou plus généralement à leur développement ceci en dépit des gains de crédibilité obtenus en matière d'inflation et les avantages en terme de risque pays que procure des règles strictes, mais claires et constantes au cours du temps. Cela dit le taux de change réel d'équilibre de long terme est apprécié dans la thèse en fonction des termes de l'échange, de la part des biens non échangeables et échangeables internationalement, de la balance courante, de la demande intérieure, des droits et taxes sur les importations et exportations, du degré d'ouverture et des dépenses publiques. Nous en arrivons à la conclusion selon laquelle les taux de change réels ont été en général surévalués (en moyenne sur la période 1965-2003) quoique de manière diverse selon les pays, ce qui justifie après coup la dévaluation de 1994, les mésalignements ne se résorbant pas plus vite dans les « petits pays » que dans les « grands ». Un développement en quatre parties est proposé : la première décrit l'évolution des économies des zones franc selon le régime de change (dévaluation de 1994, passage à l'euro en 1999), la situation de la dette (crise de la dette et politiques d'ajustement structurelles entre 1986 et 1994), la spécialisation du commerce extérieur et le taux de croissance du PIB. Le problème récurrent du déficit extérieur et les taux de croissance faibles sont également mis en exergue. La seconde partie passe en revue les théories du taux de change réel d'équilibre et se termine par une évaluation très précise et originale des taux de change réels. La troisième partie étudie et discute une spécification d'une forme réduite de taux de change réel d'équilibre dans l'esprit de la théorie d'Edwards et développe les modèles VAR et VAR à correction d'erreur qui permettent de penser l'évolution du taux de change vers sa valeur de long terme considérée comme une fonction des fondamentaux décrite par une relation de cointégration. La quatrième partie enfin présente les estimations complètes pour les cinq pays étudiés, les discutent et les utilisent pour produire les conclusions rappelées au début de ce résumé.

Diarrhoe ist eines der häufigsten Probleme beim equinen Neonaten. Nahezu alle Fohlen entwickeln Durchfall innerhalb der ersten Lebenswochen. Unterschiedliche virale, bakterielle und parasitäre Ursachen werden diskutiert. In diesen Zeitraum fällt ebenfalls die erste Rosse der Stute, sodass der Durchfall um den 5. - 15. Lebenstag (LT) bei den Fohlen als „Fohlenrossedurchfall“ bezeichnet wird. Es wird vermutet, dass die Entwicklung der intestinalen Mikroflora und die Reifung der Darmschleimhaut im Wesentlichen für das Durchfallgeschehen verantwortlich sind. Bisher ist jedoch wenig bekannt über die Entwicklung der intestinalen Mikroflora bei Fohlen. Einige Probiotika sind als Darmflorastabilisatoren bei Tieren zugelassen. Studien belegten positive Effekte von Toyocerin® (B. cereus var. toyoi) auf die Darmgesundheit bei anderen Tierarten wie z.B. Kälbern, Ferkeln, Broilern, Puten und Mastkaninchen. Die vorliegende Arbeit sollte klären, ob die Supplementierung von B. cereus var. toyoi zu einer Stabilisierung der sich entwickelnden intestinalen Mikroflora und damit zu einer Verringerung der Durchfälle bei Fohlen führt. Die Untersuchung wurde an 25 Mutterstuten eines Vollblutgestüts und ihren Fohlen durchgeführt. Alle Fohlen wurden von Februar bis Mai 2011 geboren. Von Geburt an wurden die Fohlen randomisiert in drei Behandlungsgruppen eingeteilt: Placebo-Gruppe (10 ml isotone Kochsalzlösung, n=8), 50 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe (5 x 108 KbE B. cereus var. toyoi gelöst in 10 ml isotoner Kochsalzlösung, n=7) und 200 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe (2 x 109 KbE B. cereus var. toyoi gelöst in 10 ml isotoner Kochsalzlösung, n=10). Die Placebo- und Behandlungsgruppen wurden einmal täglich vom 1. – 58. LT supplementiert. Herz- und Atemfrequenz, Körperinnentemperatur und die Körpermasseentwicklung wurden nach einem standardisierten Protokoll erhoben. Kotproben konnten mit Hilfe von Kotsammelbeuteln oder durch rektale Entnahme innerhalb von 24 Stunden nach der Geburt sowie an LT 9, 16, 23, 30, 44, 58 und am ersten Durchfalltag gewonnen werden. Blutproben wurden aus der Vena jugularis externa am 1., 9., 16., 30., 58. LT sowie am ersten Durchfalltag entnommen. Die bakteriologische Untersuchung erfolgte mit Hilfe des Kulturverfahrens. Die Bestimmung der Gesamt-IgG-Werte wurde mit einem kompetitiven ELISA, die Bestimmung der spezifischen Antikörper IgG-anti-LPS von E. coli J5 und IgG-anti-PLC-von-C. perfringens-1a mit einem indirekten ELISA durchgeführt. 88 % der Fohlen entwickelten Durchfall (Placebo 7/8, 50 mg Toyocerin 5/7, 200 mg Toyocerin 10/10) mit einer hohen Inzidenz zwischen dem 8. und 16. LT. Das Allgemeinbefinden und die Bewegungs- und Sauglust blieben dabei unbeeinflusst. Zum Zeitpunkt des ersten Östrus der Stute zeigten 59 % der Fohlen Diarrhoe. Unter den 41 %, die keinen Durchfall zum Zeitpunkt der Fohlenrosse hatten, waren Fohlen, die nie Durchfall vom 1. – 58. LT zeigten, aber auch welche die Diarrhoe entwickelten, als die Mutterstute sich nicht in Rosse befand. Ein Zusammenhang zwischen der Fohlenrosse der Stute und Durchfall bei ihrem Fohlen konnte nicht hergestellt werden. Es zeigte sich eine Tendenz, dass hohe Spiegel der Gesamt-IgG (>20 mg/ml) und IgG-anti-LPS von E. coli J5 (>120 RE/ml) nach der Kolostrumaufnahme im Zusammenhang mit einer geringeren Anzahl von Durchfalltagen innerhalb der ersten zwei Lebensmonate standen. C. perfringens und Enterobakterien waren gleichermaßen nachweisbar bei Fohlen mit Durchfall als auch bei unauffälligen Fohlen. Aus der Supplementierung von B. cereus var. toyoi ergab sich kein Effekt auf die Kotflora der Fohlen, außer auf die Gesamtkeimzahlen (GKZ) der aeroben Bakterien. Bei den Aerobiern im Fohlenkot konnte ein signifikanter Behandlungseffekt (p=0,012) festgestellt werden. Im ersten Milchkot der Fohlen waren GKZ von 4,5 x 104 KbE/g (200 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) bis 5,0 x 105 KbE/g (50 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) bei den aeroben Bakterien und GKZ von 2,4 x 105 KbE/g (200 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) bis 4,7 x 106 KbE/g (50 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) median bei den Anaerobiern nachweisbar. Danach stieg der Gehalt der aeroben und anaeroben Bakterien weiter bis zum 3. LT und stagnierte bis zum 16. LT. Während dieser Stagnationsphase trat bei 92 % der Fohlen (23/25) eine Veränderung der Kotkonsistenz bis hin zu Durchfällen auf. Vom 16. bis zum 58. LT sanken die Gehalte moderat bei den Aerobiern median am 58. LT auf 2,7 x 105 KbE/g (Placebo-Gruppe) bis 2,2 x 106 KbE/g (50 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe) und bei den Anaerobiern median am 58. LT auf 3,8 x 105 KbE/g (Placebo-Gruppe) bis 2,9 x 106 KbE/g (200 mg Toyocerin-Gruppe). Bis zum 58. LT näherte sich der Medianwert der aeroben und anaeroben Bakterien im Kot der Placebo-Gruppe dem Wert der Mutterstuten (gemessen am ersten Tag nach der Geburt) an. Innerhalb der ersten Lebenstage war eine hohe aerobe sowie anaerobe Keimzahl im Kot der Fohlen nachzuweisen, die sich oberhalb der Keimzahlen befand, die im Kot der Mutterstuten zum Zeitpunkt der Geburt gemessen wurde. Im Rahmen der Entwicklung und Etablierung der bakteriellen intestinalen Mikroflora wurde das Fohlenrossedurchfallgeschehen bei den Fohlen beobachtet. B. cereus var. toyoi hatte dabei keinen Einfluss auf die Anzahl der Fohlen mit Durchfall und den Gesundheitsstatus der Fohlen. / Diarrhoea is probably one of the most common problems in equine neonates. Almost all foals develop transient diarrhoea within the first weeks of life. Different viral, bacterial and parasitic causes are discussed. Between the 5th and the 15th day of the foal’s life, when their dam’s first post partum (p.p.) oestrus is expected, diarrhoea in foals is observed quite often. That is why it’s called “foal heat diarrhoea”. In literature establishment of intestinal microflora and maturation of the intestinal mucosa is responsible for the occurrence of diarrhoea in this period of life. But little is known about the development of the intestinal microflora in foals. Many probiotics are authorised as gut flora stabilisers in animal nutrition. Some studies proved positive effects of Bacillus (B.) cereus var. toyoi (Toyocerin®) on intestinal health in other species e.g. calves, piglets, broiler chicken, poultry and growing rabbits. The present study deals with the question if a supplementation of B. cereus var. toyoi lead to a stabilisation of the developing intestinal microflora and therefore to a reduction of diarrhoea in foals. A total of 25 mares and foals of a thoroughbred stud were included into the study. Foals were born between February and May 2011. From birth, the foals were randomly assigned to three treatment groups: placebo group (10 ml isotonic saline solution, n=8), 50 mg Toyocerin group (5 x 108 cfu B. cereus var. toyoi solved in 10 ml isotonic saline solution, n=7) and 200 mg Toyocerin group (2 x 109 cfu B. cereus var. toyoi solved in 10 ml isotonic saline solution, n=10). Placebo- and treatment groups were orally supplemented once a day starting on the 1st through to the 58th day of life. Determination of heart and respiratory rate, body temperature, body weight was realised according to a standardised protocol. Within the first day of life, on day 9, 16, 23, 30, 44, 58 and on the first day of diarrhoea faecal samples has been taken from the rectum or by the use of a collection bag. Blood samples were taken via jugular venipuncture on day 1, 9, 16, 30, 58 and on the first day of diarrhoea. Culture-depend methods were used to analyse the bacterial microflora. Serum IgG was analysed by a competitive ELISA, IgG-anti-LPS from E. coli J5 and IgG-anti-PLC-from-C. perfringens-1a by an indirect ELISA. 88 % of the foals developed diarrhoea (placebo 7/8, 50 mg Toyocerin 5/7, 200 mg Toyocerin 10/10) with a high incidence between the 8th and the 16th day of the foal’s life. Meanwhile, foals remained bright and alert and continued to nurse. At the time point of the first p.p. oestrus in the mares, 59 % of their foals showed signs of diarrhoea. Within the remaining 41 % there are foals that had no diarrhoea but there are also foals which had diarrhoea when the mare had not been in heat. Neonatal diarrhoea in foals is not linked to p.p. oestrus in their mares. There was a tendency, that high serum-IgG (> 20 mg/ml) and IgG-anti-LPS from E. coli J5 (> 120 RE/ml) after colostrum uptake were associated with lower diarrhoea severity in the first 58 days of the foal’s life. C. perfringens and enterobacteria can be found equally in foals with diarrhoea and in foals which are not afflicted. B. cereus var. toyoi supplementation had no effect on faecal bacteria in foals, except on aerobic bacteria (p=0,012). In the first milk faeces aerobic bacteria were detected in median from 4,5 x 104 cfu/g (200 mg Toyocerin-group) to 5,0 x 105 cfu/g (50 mg Toyocerin-group) and anaerobic bacteria were detected in median from 2,4 x 105 cfu/g (200 mg Toyocerin-group) to 4,7 x 106 cfu/g (50 mg Toyocerin-group). Afterwards the counts increased towards the 3rd day of life and stayed on a high level till the 16th day of life. During this stagnation in 92 % of the foals a change in faecal consistency and diarrhoea was observed. Afterwards, from the 16th though to the 58th day of life, the bacteria counts in the faeces moderately decreased in median for the aerobic bacteria on the 58th day of life down to 3,8 x 105 cfu/g (placebo-group) till 2,9 x 106 cfu/g (200 mg Toyocerin-group). On the 58th day of life the counts of aerobic and anaerobic bacteria in the faeces of the placebo-group approached the counts in the faeces of the mare (measured at the time point of birth). In the first days of foals’ life detection of aerobic and anaerobic bacteria in the faeces were high, and above the level of the bacteria counts in the faeces of the mare at the time point of birth. Foal heat diarrhoea is observed as a part of the development and establishment of bacterial intestinal microflora. B. cereus var. toyoi had no effect on the percentage of foals with diarrhoea and health status in the foals at that point.

Magistro darbe tiriama galimybė veisti plantacinius želdinius iš svetimžemių eglių rūšių greitam medienos išauginimui Lietuvoje. Darbo tikslas – įvertinti sitkinės eglės (Picea sitchensis), baltosios eglės var. alberta (Picea gauca var. albertiana), raudonosios eglės (Picea rubens), ajaninės eglės (Picea jezoensis), tarprūšinių hibridų – paprastoji eglė x kanadinė eglė (Picea abies x Picea glauca), paprastoji eglė x baltoji eglė (Picea abies x Picea glauca var. albertiana) genotipų tinkamumą sutrumpintos rotacijos plantaciniams želdiniams. Darbo objektas – Rokų Kelmyno bandomieji želdiniai. Darbo metodai ir techninės priemonės – tyrimo metu buvo įvertinti medžių kokybiniai ir kiekybiniai požymiai bandomuosiuose želdiniuose naudojant tokius prietaisus ir metodus: aukštis - aukštimačiu, skersmuo – žerglėmis, kokybiniai požymiai buvo įvertinti pagal vizualaus medžių kokybinių požymių įvertinimo metodiką. Taip pat buvo atlikta šių duomenų statistinė analizė. Naudoti tokie metodai: aprašomosios statistikos rodiklių palyginimas ir tiesinė koreliacinė analizė. Darbo rezultatai. Picea sitchensis ir abu tarprūšiniai hibridai pasižymi didesniu skersmeniu ir aukščiu, taip pat didesniu tūriu, nei vietinė paprastoji eglė. 33 metų amžiuje Picea sitchensis produkuoja 540 m3/ha medienos, kas rodo jos tinkamumą trumpos apyvartos želdiniams. Picea glauda var. albertiana, Picea jezoensis, ir Picea rubens produktyvumas yra mažesnis nei Picea abies. Didžiausiu tiesių ir vienastiebių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / This master thesis analyses possibility to cultivate exotic spruce plantations for shorten rotation forestry in Lithuania. Objective of the study was to find out suitability of Picea sitchensis, P. gauca var. albertiana, P. rubens, P. jezoensis, P. abies x P. glauca, P. abies x P. glauca (var. albertiana) for shorten rotation plantations. Object – Roku Kelmyno experimental forest area. Methods – such qualitative and quantitative tree parameters as height, diameter were assessed using clinometer and callipers. Qualitative parameters were assessed using visual tree qualitative parameters assessment methodics. All data was statistically analyzed. Methods used: comparison of descriptive statistics parameters and linear correlation analyzes. The results – Picea sitchensis and both interspecific hybrids have bigger diameter, height and volume parameters than local Norway spruce. Picea sitchensis produce 540 m3/ha of timber in 33 years, it shows suitability for shorten rotation plantations. Productivity of Picea glauda var. albertiana, Picea jezoensis, and Picea rubens is poor compared to Picea abies. Biggest percentage of straight and single-stemed trees were noticed in sitka spruce and both hybrids stands. Yezo spruce had the smallest percentage (62%) of healthy trees. Whereas the other tree species had percentage of healthy trees between 80 and 95. Branches positioned by blunt angle according the steam dominated in all stands and percentage of such trees was from 88 to 100. P... [to full text]

Novelty of the research. The investigation focused on five oil pumpkin varieties. Biochemical composition, sensory characteristics and nutritious value of oil pumpkin seeds as well as of oil, seed cake and fruit cake were established and compared in in the course of this investigation. This work established differencies among the genotype of varieties and correlative dependencies between chemical composition indices of pulp, seeds and oil of some pumpkins and meteorological conditions (duration of sunshine, precipitation, temperature). Chemical composition of oil pumpkin fruit pulp and oil depends on the variety genotipe. Meteorological conditions had stronger influence on chemical composition of oil pumpkin seeds than on that of their pulp: amounts of raw, NDF and MADF cellular tissues, raw proteins and crude fats were influenced by duration of sunshine and sum of active temperatures. Amount of precipitation stimulated accumulation of raw and NDF cellular tissue only. Practical value of the work. Big amount of valuable proteins, fats and mineral materials makes pulp, seeds, oil and cake of oil pumpkin fruits an alternative plant raw material for food and/or additive for development of innovative products. / Darbo mokslinis naujumas. Buvo tirtos penkios aliejinių moliūgų veislės. Eksperimento metu nustatyta ir palyginta ne tik aliejinių moliūgų sėklų, bet ir aliejaus, sėklų išspaudų, vaisiaus minkštimo biocheminė sudėtis, juslinės savybės ir maistinė vertė. Nustatyti skirtumai tarp veislių genotipo, koreliaciniai priklausomumai tarp kai kurių moliūgų minkštimo, sėklų, aliejaus cheminės sudėties rodiklių ir meteorologinių sąlygų (saulės spindėjimo trukmės, kritulių, temperatūros). Aliejinių moliūgų vaisių minkštimo bei aliejaus cheminė sudėtis prikluso nuo veislės genotipo. Meteorologinės sąlygos daugiau įtakos turėjo aliejinių moliūgų sėklų nei jų minkštimo cheminei sudėčiai: žalios, NDF ir MADF ląstelienų, žalių baltymų ir žalių riebalų kiekiams - saulės spindėjimo trukmė ir aktyvių temperatūrų suma. Iškritusių kritulių kiekis skatino tik žalios ir NDF ląstelienos kaupimąsi. Darbo praktinė vertė. Aliejinių moliūgų vaisiaus minkštimas, sėklos, aliejus ir išspaudos dėl juose esančio didelio kiekio vertingų baltymų, riebalų ir mineralinių medžiagų gali būti alternatyvi augalinė maisto žaliava ir/ar priedas inovatyviems produktams kurti.

Magistro darbe nagrinėjamas šiuo metu vienas moderniausių rizikos matų – rizikos vertė (angl.Value-at-risk) Analizuojami trys pagrindiniai VaR rodiklio skaičiavimo metodai: variacijos/kovariacijos, istorinio modeliavimo ir Monte Karlo simuliacijos keliamų prielaidų, sudėtingumo ir adekvatumo požiūriais. Visų trijų metodų pagalba dabartinėmis rinkos sąlygomis atliekami empiriniai tyrimai, siekiant įvertinti rizikos vertes valiutų ir akcijų rinkose, atlikta gautų rizikos verčių palyginamoji analizė bei patikrintas naudotų metodų tikslumas. Autorės suformuluota hipotezė, kad VaR rodiklio skaičiavimo metodai nėra tinkami naudoti pereinamuoju laikotarpiu kuomet ekonominė aplinka ir padėtis nėra stabili iš dalies patvirtinta, nes atliktų tyrimų rezultatai atmetė tik variacijos/kovariacijos bei istorinio modeliavimo metodų tinkamumą. / In this master‘s work analyzed one of the modern risk measurements – Value-at-Risk (VaR). The paper examined three main VaR calculation methods: variance/covariance, historical simulation and Monte Carlo generations satisfying in the terms of the assumptions, adequacy and complexity. For all three methods was carried out empirical studies to assess the risk of currency and stock markets, made comparative analysis of the obtained risk values and verified accuracy of used methods in the current market conditions. The authors formulated the hypothesis that the VaR indicator calculation methods are not suitable for use during the transitional period when the economic environment and situation is not stable partially confirmed because the results of tests performed to reject just the variance / covariance and historical simulation methods.

Resumo: Objetivou-se avaliar os efeitos da omissão de boro na solução de nutrientes e de doses de boro em aplicação foliar no crescimento e na nutrição, e estudar o tempo de absorção e a sua mobilidade em plantas de repolho 'Astrus' e couve-flor 'Verona'. Para isto, foram realizados na UNESP, Câmpus de Jaboticabal, oito experimentos com as plantas do repolho 'Astrus' e da couve-flor 'Verona' no período de fevereiro de 2007 até maio de 2008. Nas duas hortaliças, estudaram-se a omissão de boro em diferentes estádios de desenvolvimento e as doses de boro (0; 0,085; 0,170; 0,255 e 0,340 g L-1) via aplicação foliar. Em seguida, estudaram-se o tempo de absorção do boro aplicado via foliar (até 30 dias após aplicação) nas hortaliças e também compararam-se a mobilidade do boro marcado (10B) absorvido pelas raízes e pelas folhas, nas folhas emitidas após a sua aplicação. Em todos os experimentos, avaliaram-se as variáveis de crescimento, nutrição e de produção de matéria seca das plantas. Verificou-se, que o efeito da deficiência de boro ficou evidente no final do ciclo das hortaliças (terceiro estádio de desenvolvimento), causando maior diminuição na parte comercial das hortaliças. A adubação foliar com o micronutriente promoveu a máxima produção de matéria seca da parte comercial e da planta inteira do repolho 'Astrus', com pulverizações foliares de B nas doses de 0,224 e 0,240 g L-1, respectivamente, e esteve associada com o teor foliar de B de 15 e 14 mg kg-1. Na couve-flor 'Verona', a massa seca da parte comercial e da planta inteira aumentaram linearmente com as doses de boro, assim como o teor foliar que variou de 14 a 25 mg kg-1. O boro é absorvido lentamente pelas folhas do repolho 'Astrus', absorvendo 50% do B aplicado, próximo de 15 dias após sua aplicação e na couve-flor 'Verona' aos três dias e 12 horas após ... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: The effects of boron on cabbage and cauliflower plants were analyzed under the following approaches: (1) omitting boron from the nutrient solution at different stages of plant development; (2) Foliarly application of different doses of boron: 0, 0.085, 0.170, 0.255, and 0.340 g L-1; (3) Measuring the time necessary for boron to be absorbed by the plants when the boron fertilizer is foliarly applied; (4) Determining boron mobility in the plants by means of labeled boron (10B) supplied either via foliar fertilization or the fertilizer being directly applied to the soil. The effects of those procedures were evaluated in terms of plant growth, nutrition and productivity. The results showed that the effects of boron deficiency are more clearly felt at the end of the plant cycle so that the main effect is on plant commercial value. The doses of 0.224 and 0.240 g L-1 were those resulting in the highest commercial and the whole plant yields, respectively. These doses were found to be related with B levels in the plants of 15 and 14 mg kg-1. The commercial part and the whole plant of the 'Verona' cauliflower cultivar increased linearly with doses of boron. The foliar level of boron also increased linearly from 14 to 25 mg kg-1. Boron is slowly absorbed by the leaves of the 'Astrus' cabbage cultivar: it takes almost 15 days for 50% of the total applied to be absorbed. Cauliflower plants of the 'Verona' cultivar, on the other hand, absorbed a similar proportion in 3 days and 12 hours. It was observed that boron is immobile both in cauliflower and cabbage plants suggesting that boron fertilizers should be applied directly to the soil / Orientador: Renato de Mello Prado / Coorientador: Arthur Bernades Cecilio Filho / Banca: Cassio Hamilton Abreu Junior / Banca: Francisco Maximino Fernandes / Banca: Mara Cristina Pessôa da Cruz / Banca: Leila Trevizan Braz / Doutor

[pt] Investigam-se modelos econométricos que sejam capazes de efetuar uma previsão mensal de vento em um parque eólico no Ceará. São testados modelos da família ARMA que consigam capturar a sazonalidade inerente ao movimento das massas de ar e que tragam benefícios aos empreendimentos eólicos localizados no Brasil e na região. Para tal, a previsão de vento é transformada em previsão de geração de energia. Em seguida, é elaborada uma metodologia para encontrar a melhor estratégia de ação a qual maximize o resultado da empresa tendo-se como meta o lucro e restrições de Value at Risk (VaR) e Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). Os possíveis resultados de geração de energia são simulados concomitantemente com a simulação de preços de liquidação (PLD). / [en] We investigate econometric models that are capable of predicting the wind speed in a wind farm located in the state of Ceará, Brazil. ARMA models are tested to try to capture the seasonality inherent to the wind and that bring benefits to the firms operating wind farms in the region. Wind is converted in power generation to allow predictions to be more precise. Then, a methodology is created to find the best strategy, the one that maximizes the firm s profit. An optimization is made with VaR and CVaR as constraints. The simulated results of power generation are then put together with a simulation of liquidation s price (PLD).

Submitted by Katia Vieira Bisognini (kabisognini@uol.com.br) on 2016-09-06T21:15:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 01-DISSERTAÇÃO-KBISOGNINI-20160906.pdf: 750949 bytes, checksum: 09e79d9a2b3a21e0163ceff728c005b2 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2016-09-08T16:35:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 01-DISSERTAÇÃO-KBISOGNINI-20160906.pdf: 750949 bytes, checksum: 09e79d9a2b3a21e0163ceff728c005b2 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-09-08T16:52:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 01-DISSERTAÇÃO-KBISOGNINI-20160906.pdf: 750949 bytes, checksum: 09e79d9a2b3a21e0163ceff728c005b2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-08-10 / The public debt sustainability is essential for the development and growth of a country. Countries that seek economic expansion in the short/medium term without maintaining a sustainable fiscal policy can incur to the problem of explosive trajectory of public debt, compromising their development and growth in the long term. This work aims to analyze the dynamics of Brazilian public debt through the structural vector autoregressive approach (SVAR) during the period of 2003 to 2015. For that, the model proposed by Apergis and Cooray (2015) to analyze the Greek public debt will be used as reference. However, adaptations were necessary to adequate the model to the Brazilian reality. Even if the adequacy of the model, the results obtained did not have adherence compatible with the economic theory, possibly due to the shocks that occurred in Brazil during this period. It is suggested the development of future studies to improve the model in order to get consistent results, like the reference model results. / A sustentabilidade da dívida pública de um país é essencial para seu desenvolvimento e crescimento econômico. Países que buscam uma expansão econômica no curto/médio prazo sem manter uma política fiscal sustentável podem incorrer ao problema de trajetória explosiva da dívida pública, comprometendo seu desenvolvimento e crescimento no longo prazo. O objetivo do presente trabalho é analisar a dinâmica da dívida pública do Brasil através da ótica do modelo de vetor autorregressivo estrutural (SVAR) durante o período de 2003 a 2015. Para isto será utilizado como referência o modelo proposto por Apergis e Cooray (2015) para analisar a dinâmica da dívida pública grega. No entanto, adaptações foram necessárias para adequar o modelo a realidade do Brasil. Mesmo com a adaptação do modelo, os resultados obtidos não tiveram uma aderência compatível com a teoria econômica, possivelmente devido aos choques que ocorreram no Brasil durante este período. Sugere-se o desenvolvimento de estudos futuros para o aperfeiçoamento do modelo, a fim de se obter um resultado consistente e mais próximo aos resultados do modelo de referência.