葉立欽時期十多年的自由民主改革實踐，使俄羅斯陷入了嚴重的困境。在殘酷的現實面前，俄羅斯人民希冀政治權威的產生。 藉由觀察尤科斯集團的崛起以及日後的「尤科斯事件」，我們發現俄羅斯社會轉型時期金融寡頭集團勢力的形成有其深刻的社會因素。隨著金融寡頭們自身實力的不斷增強，其對社會的阻礙作用日益顯露。普京上台後欲推行權威政治改革，不斷的加強總統集權，然而他所面臨的挑戰之一即是俄羅斯金融寡頭問題。為此，普京企圖以打擊經濟犯罪為名，打擊金融寡頭，藉以收攬人心，從而裂解葉立欽時期所遺留下來的「家族」集團勢力，建立以國家安全團隊為主幹的執政團隊，以鞏固其政權基礎。 普京執政以來，放棄空洞的「民主」口號，在社會政治領域建立以總統集權為核心的「可控式民主」，為社會發展和經濟提升提供了有力的保障。觀察俄羅斯近來所舉行的議會選舉和總統大選顯示出俄羅斯的政治力量對比、社會情緒和社會意識型態已發生變化。總統普京的聲望亦達到頂點。俄羅斯政治將進入以可控式民主為特點的新時期。 關鍵詞：金融寡頭、尤科斯事件、葉立欽、普京、可控式民主 / More than ten years of free demorcratic reforms of the Yeltsin’s era made the Russia society get into serious trouble. In face of the ruthless reality, Russian people call for the return of political authority. Through observing the establishment of “Yukos Group” and the development of “Yukos Incident”, we know that at the beginning of Russia transition, the financial oligarch groups came into being for deeply social reasons. With amplifying in energy, the financial oligarch groups have hampered the social development more and more seriously. After coming into power, Putin wants to promote the authoritarian political reforms and enhance president’s absolute power continuously. However, one of the challenges he faced to is the problem of Russian financial oligarch groups. Because of this, Russian president Putin was attempted to wipe out some of these oligarchs in the name of combat against economic crimes, in order to rally the popular support, to wipe out the “Family” force left by Yeltsin’s regime and replace them with a new ruling command of national security elite, and to consolidate his own power. Since Putin took power from Yeltsin, he has dropped empty “ Democratic” slogans and instituted “ Controllable Democracy” in the socio- political field with presidential power as the core, providing powerful guarantee for socio- political development and economic rejuvenation. Through observing the recent parliamentary and presidential elections held in Russia, it shows that Putin’s power and influence have reached the climax with the change in the balance of political forces, social mood and social ideology in Russia. With this, Russia has entered into a new period featuring “ Controllable Democracy”. Keywords: Financial Oligarchs, Yukos Incident, Yeltsin, Putin, Controllable Democracy

1991年底蘇聯的解體，使得俄羅斯的政治體制由一黨專政走向多元民主，其經濟體制也從過去以社會主義所有制轉變為市場經濟體制。在俄羅斯進行政經轉型的初期，國際貨幣基金會（International Monetary Fund；以下均簡稱為IMF）以龐大的金援為後盾，介入俄羅斯的政經發展，對俄羅斯的制度抉擇有著深遠的影響。因此，本文旨在透過剖析IMF1992年至1999年間援俄計劃的形成過程、內容、俄羅斯決策當局對IMF援俄計劃的回應，以及影響俄羅斯決策當局的因素，探究IMF援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展的互動關係。 本論文主要採用「系統理論」(the Systems Theory)的研究途徑，探討IMF的援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展的互動關係。其中，以「議價模式」(the Bargaining Model)說明在IMF援俄計劃的形成過程中，IMF的組織成員，主導IMF政策走向的美國、英國等已開發國家，以及俄羅斯當局三者的角力過程。最後，再以「克里姆林宮政治研究途徑」(Kremlin Politics approach)敘探俄羅斯決策當局回應IMF要求時的考量因素。在此研究架構下，本論文第一章除說明研究動機與目的、研究架構與途徑、研究限制外，還介紹與研究題目相關的文獻，並指出過去文獻所未考量之處，以做為論文研究之基礎；第二章續述IMF的運作概況，探討影響IMF援俄計劃形成的可能因素；第三章闡述俄羅斯的初始條件、IMF援俄計劃的內容、俄羅斯當局的回應，以及IMF援俄計劃所帶來的成效與弊端；第四章則論述1992年至1999年俄羅斯的政經發展，並指出IMF的援俄計劃對俄羅斯政經發展的影響；第五章為結論。 本論文的結論是，雖然俄羅斯的政經發展會相互影響，但是對俄羅斯的決策當局而言，政治的穩固比經濟發展路線的選擇更為重要。IMF在1992年至1999年間許多關鍵時刻對葉爾欽表示支持，使葉爾欽在多次的政爭中仍得以保有政權；而葉爾欽為獲得IMF的金援，自然會推動其所要求的市場經濟體制。因此，儘管俄羅斯的經濟改革迭有波折，但是市場經濟體制在俄羅斯生根已是無庸置疑。 / The collapse of the Soviet Union has led Russia from one-party dictatorship to plural democracy in politics and from socialistic ownership to free-market system in economy. During the initial period of Russia’s political and economical transformation, International Monetary Fund, backed up by the huge-amount loans, interfered with Russia’s political and economical developments, giving impact upon the choice of institutions in Russia. Therefore, this thesis is aimed to understand the interacting relationships between IMF’s aid program and Russia’s political and economical developments, by analyzing the forming process and content of IMF’s aid program toward Russia from 1992-9, the response of the Russian authorities toward IMF’s aid program, and the factors that influenced the Russian authorities to make their policies. The thesis adopts the Systems Theory as its research approach to discuss the interacting relationships between the IMF’s aid program and Russia’s political and economical developments. Meanwhile, I use the “Bargaining Model” to explain the wrestling process among IMF’s staff and personnel, the countries dominating IMF’s direction of policies, like the US and the UK, and the Russian authorities. Finally, I further focus on the factors that the Russian authorities considered in response to IMF’s demands. The first chapter includes the research motives and objectives, the research frameworks and approaches, the research restrictions, and the relevant literature. The second one mentions the general situation of IMF and the factors that may influence the forming of the IMF’s aid program toward Russia. The third one specifies the initial conditions in Russia, the content of the IMF’s aid program, the Russian authorities’ responses, and the effect and the problems that the IMF’s aid program may bring out. The fourth one points out the impact that the IMF’s aid program put upon the Russia’s political and economical developments. The fifth one is the conclusion. The conclusion is that though politics and economy influence each other in Russia, the stable political situation is more important than the choice of economic developments for the Russian authorities. IMF’s support for Boris N. Yeltsin on many key occasions from 1992 to 1999, allowed him to retain his power. And Yeltsin naturally promoted the market economy that IMF required for getting its loan. Therefore, despite the continuing difficulties in Russia’s economic reform, it’s no doubt that the market economy has taken root in Russia.

本論文主要在探討俄羅斯聯邦於一九九一年至一九九七年間，所推行的各項經濟改革政策及其經濟實況。本論文嘗試著以政治經濟學的角度來剖析俄羅斯經濟改革與政治發展間的互動，以宏觀的手法探討俄羅斯經濟改革政策，並分析影響俄羅斯經濟日後發展的因素，從而預測俄羅斯日後政治經濟發展的趨向。 本論文共分為伍章: 第壹章為緒論，敘述本論文之研究動機、研究途徑、研究架構、研究範圍與研究限制：第貳章探討俄羅斯經濟改革的背景與特徵。本章主要先論述蘇聯傳統社會主義計劃經濟的形成以及其特徵，並依時間順序介紹蘇聯時期歷次的社會主義經濟改革的大要。先了解整個社會主義計劃經濟的特徵與弊端，然後再探討俄羅斯經濟改革的背景與必要性，以及俄羅斯經濟改革的特徵；第參章剖析俄羅斯經濟改革的主要內容，首先探討俄羅斯經濟改革理論的演進，描述俄羅斯經濟改革策略由蓋逢時期的激進、快速的「休克療法」演變成契爾諾米爾丁時期的緩進、折衷的經濟改革策略的演變過程。然後詳細地論述俄羅斯經濟體制各領域的改革內容，包括：所有制變革、價格自由化、金融體制改革、社會保護制度改革、財稅體制改革、貿易體制改革、住屋制度變革、以及農業與上地私有化方面的改革措施，木章最後再論述契爾諾米爾丁於一九九六年底所提出修正的經濟改革措施，以瞭解今後俄羅斯經濟改革的方向；第肆章論述俄羅斯經濟改革實行結果與影響，提出其經濟改革之結果與影響、以及在俄羅斯經濟改革過程中不斷出現的兩難困境，與俄羅斯日後推行市場經濟的阻力；第伍章為本論文之結論，本章主要是論述俄羅斯經濟改革的前景，並在此章節中提出筆者個人的研究發現與建議未來俄羅斯經濟改革的改善途徑。 在研究過程中筆者發現，俄羅斯的經濟改革往往與俄羅斯政治的權力鬥爭相互影響。經濟改革並非是單純的經濟改革，往往是政治因素左右了俄羅斯的經濟政策走向；而政治勢力的消長，亦因為經濟表現的優劣而隨之消長。尚有相當多的因素影響到俄羅斯的總體經濟表現，諸如：社會治安因素、外援、通貨膨脹等等。因此，政治的考量打亂了經濟改革的原有計劃除此之外．加上上述各方面的影響之下，俄羅斯的經濟成長根本無法如預期般地好轉，即使時至今日也難以紓緩。 / The main role of this thesis is the Economic Reform of Russian Federation, from 1991 to 1997. This thesis applies the Kremlin politics approach and the historical approach to analyze the Russian economic reform program, and discusses the impact of domestic and international political factors on reform from a political economy perspective. There are five chapters in this thesis. Chapter One is introduction ,which include the problems, purpose, scope and the approaches of this thesis. Chapter Two is the motives of Russia economic reform. Chapter Three is the contents of Russia economic reform from 1991 to 1997.Chapter Four is the results and impacts of Russia economic reform. Chapter Five is conclusion of this thesis. After discuss this thesis, the author find that reform has resulted in a large slide in living standards, a big jump in inflation, and critical deviation in the distribution of the wealth between rich and poor. The basic reason is that the Russian government has not been able to take positive control of economic activity, as the process of privatization and the redistribution of national wealth has created mistakes. National enterprises have fallen under the hands of bureaucratic and managerial apparatus from the beginning of the privatization. Economic reform has also involved some problems, including a huge debts, capital outflow, increasing crime, growing unemployment, and heavy export dependence on raw materials and energy. Although the policy of economic reform has been revised several times, it still has not deviated from its basic design. Official economic developmental strategy thus seems to have a gap with the factual situation, with the role of the government not yet strengthened. In the next ten years, it will therefore be difficult for the Russian economy to quickly develop, though it possesses tremendous potential and resources. After reviewing the political and economic developments of Russia from 1991 to 1997, it is determined that political factors and President Yeltsin himself are the major culprit that forestalled the realization of reform goals.ln short, political considerations disrupted the original reform plan. As a result, Russia from 1991 to 1997suffered from galloping prices and declining production that have not significantly abated to this date.

本論文主要在探討俄羅斯東正教政教關係之演變。在研究方法上，主要依據”政教關係”的理論以及相關的文獻分析來進行之。本文的架構以教會過去的歷史、俄羅斯官方的意識型態以及政府的宗教政策之演變為主軸，據此來探討一九九一年底之後，俄羅斯政教關係之變化。 本論文共分五章。第一章說明本文之研究方法與架構。第二章則將帝俄時期至一九八五年以前的俄羅斯政教關係的歷史背景作一簡單的敘述。一九一七年以前，東正教一直是俄羅斯的國教。與其他的教派相比，東正教會享有許多特權，例如，它得以免除稅務以及公民應盡之義務。在蘇聯時期，東正教會喪失原來獨享之特權並且遭受到殘酷之宗教迫害；不過這種情況到戈巴契夫上台以後有了轉變。 本文第三章首先題到戈巴契夫在蘇聯境內實行政治與經濟領域之革新，這些政策伴隨官方意識型態之轉變，導致政府宗教政策的大幅修正，政教關係也因此有所突破。此時俄羅斯東正教會再度受到重視，並且可以進行它的復興工作。在蘇聯解體之後，東正教在俄羅斯的政治上依然扮演著重要的角色。在第四章裏我們將探討教會與俄羅斯政府之間如何相互影響。第五章將對本文作一個總結，並討論俄羅斯政教關係可能的發展方向，以及俄羅斯東正教之未來前景。 / This dissertation focuses on the changes in the relationship between the Russian government and the Russian Orthodox Church. The methodology for this thesis is based on the “Politics-Religion Mutuality”Theory and the analysis of documents pertaining to the two related parties. The framework of this study is based upon three essential topics: the history of the church, the evolution of Russian ideology and the religious policies of Russian government.Analyzing these three topics we may find out how the Russia politics-religion relationship changes after the end of 1991. There are five parts to this thesis. Each part has a chapter devoted specifically to it. In chapter one the methodology and the framework of this dissertation will be expounded. In chapter two the author gives an outline of the history of the relationship between the state and the church. Before 1917 the Russian Orthodox Church was the state church of Russia. Being the official church, the Russian Orthodox Church had many privileges as compared with other denominations, for example, it was exempt from assessments and civic obligations. In the Soviet Union the Russian Orthodox Church lost its monopolistic power and suffered brutal religious persecution. This, however changed when M. Gorbachev headed the government. Chapter three, the turning point, shows the new policies in political and economic domains within the USSR enacted enforced by Gorbachev. These changes to the official ideology also led to large-scale changed in religious policy. At this time the Russian Orthodox Church became highly regarded again in the USSR and could proceed with its own revival. After the disintegration of the USSR, the Russian Orthodox Church was still highly regarded and played an important role in Russia's politics. In chapter four we investigate how the church and the government influenced each other. In chapter five we conclude with a summery, the possible development of mutuality between the Russian Orthodox Church and the prospects of the Russian Orthodox Church.

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L’objet de cette thèse est de replacer la Constitution de la Fédération de Russie, adoptée par référendum le 12 décembre 1993, dans ses différents contextes de production. En effet, ce texte juridique est à la fois le produit d’une Histoire courte et d’une Histoire longue, d’un conflit intra-élite et d’une somme de représentations héritées des périodes précédentes et reconstruites à la fin des années 80 et au début des années 90. Ainsi, il ne semblait pas suffisamment pertinent de limiter notre étude au processus rédactionnel proprement dit, entamé à l’été 1990. Nous avons pris le parti de tenter de reconstituer ce que pouvait être l’« épistémè », les représentations politico-juridiques, des acteurs ayant joué un rôle décisif dans la discussion de la Constitution. Ce parti nécessitait de retracer les occurrences les plus significatives de l’Histoire du droit et des institutions en Russie tsariste et en Union Soviétique. Cette démarche fait l’objet de la première partie de la Thèse, « La Péréstroïka comme réceptacle, révolution et modèle ». Il ressort de l’analyse que malgré la présence de traditions intellectuelles libérales et d’institutions proto-parlementaires, la tradition dominante, et acceptée comme telle par les rédacteurs de la Constitution russe, est largement antijuridique et autoritaire. C’est dans ce contexte que les acteurs de la Ière République russe ont cherché à puiser dans les modèles étrangers (américain et français en particulier) et les modèles théoriques du Droit constitutionnel (régime parlementaire et régime présidentiel) pour créer le nouvel agencement institutionnel. La seconde partie de la thèse, « Le processus de rédaction de la Constitution de 1993 », porte sur l’Histoire courte, c’est-à-dire sur les années 1990-1993 qui ont vu s’affronter deux camps, tant sur le plan politique que constitutionnel. Le camp du Congrès des députés du peuple emmené par son Président Rouslan Khasboulatov défendait un projet permettant d’assurer la domination du Parlement, alors que le camp du Président de la Fédération, emmené par Boris Eltsine, cherchait à imposer un projet assurant à la présidence une position dominante. De part et d’autre, les modèles empiriques et théoriques du Droit constitutionnel furent instrumentalisés et largement trahis. Entre ces deux camps, la Commission constitutionnelle crée au sein du Congrès des députés du peuple cherchait, à travers ses différents projets, à trouver un agencement équilibré nourri des expériences étrangères et de la science du Droit constitutionnel. Le camp de la présidence réussit finalement à faire prévaloir ses vues, dans le cadre d’une Conférence constitutionnelle organisée en juin 1993, mais surtout par sa victoire politique sur le camp du Congrès suite à la crise d’octobre 1993. Le texte adopté par référendum le 12 décembre 1993, très favorable à la Présidence, peut être considéré comme l’héritier de ce conflit, mais également en partie comme l’héritier des traditions politiques russes et soviétiques. / The aim of this dissertation is to analyse the Constitution of the Russian Federation passed by referendum on 12 December 1993, in its various contexts of production. Indeed, this legal text is both the result of a short history and of a long history, of an intra-elite conflict and of an amount of representations, inherited from the past and rebuilt at the end of the 80’s and at the beginning of the 90’s. We chose to attempt to reconstruct what has been the « épistémè », the legal and political representations of the key actors of the constitutional discussions. This choice made it necessary to recount the most significant facts and conceptions of the legal and institutional history of Tsarist Russia and Soviet Union. This approach is found in the first part of this dissertation, « Perestroika as a recipient, a revolution and a model ». It appears that despite the existence of liberal traditions and proto-parliamentary institutions, the dominant tradition, granted as such by the drafters of the Russian Constitution, is basically anti-juridical and authoritarian. It is in this context that the actors of the first Russian Republic tried to use foreign patterns (mostly American and French) and the theoretical patterns of Constitutional law (parliamentary regime and presidential regime) in order to create the new institutional design. The second part of the dissertation, « The redaction process of the Constitution of 1993 », deals with short history, that is years the 1990-1993 during which two sides challenged each other, both on a political and on constitutional grounds. The side of the Congress of People’s Deputies led by its President, Ruslan Khasbulatov, promoted a project of Parliament domination, while the side of the President of the Federation promoted a project of President domination. On both sides, empirical and theoretical patterns of constitutional law were exploited and their true meanings betrayed. Between these two sides, the Constitutional Commission created by the Congress of People’s Deputies, through its several drafts, tried to find a balanced design on the basis of foreign patterns and of the science of constitutional law. Finally, on the side of the President there was success in making its conceptions prevail, within a Constitutional Conference organized in June 1993, but mainly through its political victory of October 1993. The text passed on 12 December 1993, very much in favor of the Presidency, can be considered as the heir of this conflict, but as well partly as the heir of Russian and Soviet political traditions.