Au cours de la précédente décennie et avant la crise financière de l’automne 2008, les marchés financiers internationaux ont connu un développement considérable et l’émergence d’une véritable industrie de l’investissement institutionnel. Au sein de cette industrie, les analystes financiers sell side employés par les sociétés de courtage apparaissent comme des acteurs majeurs, autour desquels se forment l’évaluation des sociétés cotées et les recommandations d’investissement à destination de leurs clients gestionnaires de fonds amenés à passer leurs ordres de bourse auprès de ces sociétés de courtage. La recherche présentée vise à identifier les modes de gestion des analystes financiers dans le champ de l’industrie de l’investissement institutionnel et l’influence qu’ils exercent sur les représentations, pratiques et productions des analystes. La première partie de cette thèse, après avoir étudié la construction du métier d’analyste et son contexte, met en débat les cadres de références théoriques et les disciplines qui s’impliquent dans l’analyse de la gestion du travail de quelques-uns des principaux acteurs de la finance, en général, et des analystes financiers en particulier. La seconde partie mobilise une approche contextualiste, interdisciplinaire et multi-méthodes au service d’une investigation empirique. Celle-ci met en relief le rôle du droit dans des dimensions coercitives et normatives très prégnantes, encourageant aussi bien la concurrence entre structures que l’homogénéisation et la standardisation de l’organisation du travail. Elle montre comment, sous l’effet de la concurrence des banques d’investissement anglo-saxonnes et de l’introduction d’un nouveau mode de financement de l’analyse financière par les volumes de courtage, les sociétés de « brokerage » ont adopté des stratégies de niche et intégré dans leurs configurations organisationnelles plutôt professionnelles de fortes dimensions mécanistes. Enfin, elle constate une uniformisation des modes de gestion des quatre principales sociétés de courtage françaises filiales de banques d’investissement. Les analystes français sont soumis à des modes de gestion qui privilégient clairement les dimensions marketing du métier qu’il s’agisse des modalités d’organisation du travail, des pratiques de recrutement, de communication interne, d’évaluation et de rémunération. Un des rôles essentiels assigné aux analystes consiste alors à accroitre les volumes de courtage ce qui les conduit à privilégier les activités aval de leur fonction. Mais cette dimension marketing qui caractérise la production des analystes doit être relativisée. En fonction de leur histoire professionnelle et des ressources qu’ils peuvent mobiliser, les analystes développent en effet des stratégies et des identités au travail différenciées. / Over the last decade and before the October 2008 credit crunch, international financial markets have witnessed a considerable development with the emergence of an important industry of institutional investment. Within this industry, financial analysts hired by brokerage firms play a major role while contributing to the assessment of listed companies through investment recommendations to asset managers, thereby obtaining from these clients orders for execution. The objective of this research is to pinpoint the role played by research analysts in the financial industry, and their influence over the representations and practices. The first part of this study, once constructed the analyst’s activity as a category, challenges the referential and theoretical grounds, as well as the fields involved in the work of some financial functions, and draws the attention to research analysts. The second part focuses on a contextual, multidisciplinary and multi-methodological approach to support an empirical investigation, which highlights the role played by law in both its coercive and prescriptive aspects, whether stimulating competition between structures or promoting the homogenization and standardization of work arrangements. We demonstrate how competition from Anglo-Saxon investment banks, as well as the adoption of a new business model resting on commissions generated by trading volumes, has led to the development of niche strategies, and introduced an important mechanistic dimension to the organizational configurations of brokerage firms. Lastly, it sheds light on the standardization of the managerial modes of the four main French brokerage firms, which are all subsidiaries of investment banks. French analysts are subject to management modes which clearly favor the marketing dimensions of the activity, as can be seen through the way their work is organized, the recruitment practices, the internal communication flows, their assessments and salaries. One of the roles assigned to analysts is thus to generate higher brokerage volumes, which as a consequence drives them towards marketing activities. This marketing dimension however needs to must be into perspective. Depending on their professional backgrounds and the resources they access, research analysts develop specific strategies and differentiated identities.

Nuvarande Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) och International Accounting Standard Board (IASB) har gemensamt utvecklat en ny leasingstandard. Syftet är att skapa konvergens på en internationell nivå samt förbättra finansiella rapporter som ska underlätta användarnas ekonomiska beslut. Tidigare studier visar att den nya leasingstandarden medför effekter på företagens redovisningen och finansiella nyckeltal. Emellertid finns lite kunskap om hur företagen på Large Cap förbereder sina investerare på en ny leasingstandard. Följaktligen är syftet med studien att beskriva hur svenska Large Cap företag väljer att förbereda sina investerare med upplysningar om IFRS 16 i sina finansiella rapporter. Vidare syftar studien till att förklara hur graden av förberedelse påverkas av leasingintensitet, antal bevakande analytiker och vilken implementeringsmetod företagen väljer vid införandet IFRS 16. För att satisfiera syftet användes agentteorin och teorin om frivilliga upplysningar för att analysera och förklara företagens val att lämna förberedande upplysningar. Upplysningarna kvantifierades genom att upplysningarna i företagens fjärde kvartalsrapport och årsredovisning 2018 kodades med en diskret variabel. Resultatet visar att företagen på Large Cap förbereder sina investerare med mer omfattande upplysningar i årsredovisningen jämfört med kvartalsrapporten. Företagen bedömer att kvalitativa upplysningar är av mer väsentligt värde för investerare än kvantitativa upplysningar eftersom de kan skapa bättre förståelse för leasingstandardens innebörd hos investerare. Vidare visar studien att varken leasingintensitet, antal bevakande analytiker eller val av implementeringsmetod påverkar företagens förberedande upplysningar. Den rimligaste tolkningen är att leasingintensiva företag inte bedömer att effekterna av leasingstandarden är av mer väsentligt värde för investerare än icke-leasingintensiva företag. En förklaring till att det inte föreligger ett samband mellan antal analytiker och företagens förberedande upplysningar kan förklaras av att företagen inte upplever att upplysningar om leasingstandarden leder till fördelar. Istället kan upplysningarna resultera i negativa marknadsreaktioner. Resultatet visar även att en övervägande andel av företagen på Large Cap föredrar den förenklade metoden till förmån för den retroaktiva metoden vid implementering av leasingstandarden. Författarna kan emellertid inte dra säkra slutsatser om företagen som använder den retroaktiva metoden förbereder sina investerare med mer omfattande upplysningar än företagen som använder den förenklade metoden. / The Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) and International Accounting Standard Board (IASB) have jointly developed a new accounting standard for leases. The main objective is to harmonize accounting across international borders with a common new lease standard and to ameliorate financial reporting for users of financial reports. Furthermore, researchers have discovered that the new lease standard has a significant impact on firms accounting and key financial ratios. Meanwhile, there is barley any studies in the field which examines how Swedish Large Cap firms chooses to prepare their investors with substantial disclosures on the new lease standard. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to describe how Swedish Large Cap firms chooses to prepare their investors with substantial disclosures on the new lease standard in their financial reports. Authors of this study also seek to explain how firms lease intensity, number of analyst followers and their choice of transition approach have an impact on firm’s preparatory disclosures. To satisfy the purpose, the authors of this study choose to deploy agency theory and voluntary disclosure theory in order to analyse and explain how firms choose to prepare their investors with IFRS 16 disclosures. Firms disclosures in their interim report for the fourth quarter 2018 and annual report 2018 were quantified with a discrete variable. Furthermore, it appears that Swedish firms on Large Cap prepare their investors with more extensively disclosures in their annual reports compared to their interim reports. Firms assesses that qualitative disclosures are of more material value to investors than quantitative disclosures. One explanatory factor may be that qualitative disclosures provide investors with better understanding of the new lease standard. Moreover, the study fails to explain the relationship between firms lease intensity, number of analyst followers, and firm’s choice of transition approach with the firm’s preparatory disclosures. One interpretation is that firms with high lease intensity do not assess the impact of the new lease standard to be of more material value for investors decisions than firms with low lease intensity. Since the study fails to explain the relationship between number of analyst followers and firm’s preparatory disclosures, a reasonable interpretation is that firms do not benefit from disclosing information about the new lease standard since the information might result in negative market reactions. Meanwhile, this study also provides evidence that a significant proportion of firms on Large Cap chooses the modified retrospective approach in favour of the full retrospective approach to adopt IFRS 16. Although, there is not enough strong evidence to support the hypothesis that Swedish firms which adopt the full retrospective approach prepare their investors with more extensively disclosures than firms which adopt the modified retrospective approach.

O objetivo deste estudo é verificar se a apresentação das despesas por função na DRE proporciona menor capacidade preditiva aos usuários, especialmente aos analistas de mercado, comparada à apresentação das despesas por natureza. O CPC 26 permite duas formas de apresentação das despesas na DRE, função ou natureza, o que é caracterizado como uma escolha contábil de apresentação. No entanto, se a empresa optar pela divulgação por função, deve apresentar, também, a informação por natureza em nota explicativa, dado que essa informação apresenta capacidade preditiva, segundo o IASB. No Brasil, a lei 6.404/76 induz a maioria das empresas a divulgar as despesas por função, o que torna a informação por natureza disponível, também, para a maioria das companhias. Existem estudos que analisam como os critérios de mensuração e reconhecimento afetam a capacidade preditiva da informação divulgada. Outros trabalhos sugerem que as escolhas contábeis de reconhecimento e mensuração podem interferir na acurácia das projeções dos analistas de mercado. Entretanto, a forma como a escolha de apresentação dos itens na DRE interfere na capacidade preditiva dos usuários, especialmente para os analistas de mercado, não está suficientemente clara na literatura. Mais especificamente com relação à forma de apresentação das despesas, não se sabe se a escolha de um método em detrimento de outro pode impactar a qualidade da informação para o usuário. Então, foram analisadas 54 empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, pertencentes a seis setores da BOVESPA, durante um período de cinco anos, por meio da utilização de análise de dados em painel. De um modo geral, os resultados sugerem que a informação por natureza é mais preditiva para o usuário e que os analistas podem errar menos em suas projeções de resultado com o uso da informação sobre despesas apresentada por natureza, dado que esta informação é disponibilizada em nota explicativa nos demonstrativos contábeis das companhias brasileiras. Assim, o estudo traz evidências de que a escolha da forma de apresentação das despesas na DRE não é indiferente para o usuário, já que pode afetar a sua capacidade de predizer fluxos de caixa futuros. Além disso, como contribuição prática, espera-se mostrar que os analistas podem melhorar a acurácia de suas previsões ao utilizarem o método de apresentação das despesas por natureza para realizar suas projeções, especialmente quando analisam empresas com alto nível de custos fixos. / The aim of this study is to verify if the presentation of the expenses by function in the income statement provides less predictability to the users, especially to the market analysts, compared to the presentation of expenses by nature. CPC 26 allows two forms of presentation of expenses at the income statement, by function and by nature, what is characterized as an accounting choice of presentation. However, if the company opts for disclosure by function, it must also present information by nature in an explanatory note, given that this information presents predictive capacity, according to the IASB. In Brazil, the Law No. 6.404 /76 induces most of companies to disclose expenses by function, which makes the information by nature also available for most companies. Studies had already analyzed how measurement and recognition criteria affect a predictive capacity of the information disclosed. Other works suggest that accounting recognition and measurement choices may interfere in analysts\' forecasts. However, the way in which the choice of presentation of items in the income statement interferes in the predictive capacity of users, especially for market analysts, is not sufficiently clear in the literature. More specifically, regarding to expenses presentation, it is not known whether the choice of one method over another can generate differences for the predictive capacity of the user. It was analyzed a sample of 54 Brazilian publicly companies belonging to six sectors of BOVESPA over a five-year period, using panel data analysis. Overall, the results suggest that information by nature is more predictive for the user and that analysts can improve the accuracy of their forecasts using the information of expenses presented by nature, since this information is available in an explanatory note in the financial statements of Brazilian companies. Thus, the study provides evidence that the choice of expenses presentation at the income statement is important to the user, as it may affect their ability to predict future cash flows. Moreover, as a practical contribution, this study shows that analysts can improve the accuracy of their forecasts by using the method of presenting expenses by nature to carry out their projections, especially when analyzing companies with high fixed costs.

O objetivo deste estudo é verificar se a apresentação das despesas por função na DRE proporciona menor capacidade preditiva aos usuários, especialmente aos analistas de mercado, comparada à apresentação das despesas por natureza. O CPC 26 permite duas formas de apresentação das despesas na DRE, função ou natureza, o que é caracterizado como uma escolha contábil de apresentação. No entanto, se a empresa optar pela divulgação por função, deve apresentar, também, a informação por natureza em nota explicativa, dado que essa informação apresenta capacidade preditiva, segundo o IASB. No Brasil, a lei 6.404/76 induz a maioria das empresas a divulgar as despesas por função, o que torna a informação por natureza disponível, também, para a maioria das companhias. Existem estudos que analisam como os critérios de mensuração e reconhecimento afetam a capacidade preditiva da informação divulgada. Outros trabalhos sugerem que as escolhas contábeis de reconhecimento e mensuração podem interferir na acurácia das projeções dos analistas de mercado. Entretanto, a forma como a escolha de apresentação dos itens na DRE interfere na capacidade preditiva dos usuários, especialmente para os analistas de mercado, não está suficientemente clara na literatura. Mais especificamente com relação à forma de apresentação das despesas, não se sabe se a escolha de um método em detrimento de outro pode impactar a qualidade da informação para o usuário. Então, foram analisadas 54 empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, pertencentes a seis setores da BOVESPA, durante um período de cinco anos, por meio da utilização de análise de dados em painel. De um modo geral, os resultados sugerem que a informação por natureza é mais preditiva para o usuário e que os analistas podem errar menos em suas projeções de resultado com o uso da informação sobre despesas apresentada por natureza, dado que esta informação é disponibilizada em nota explicativa nos demonstrativos contábeis das companhias brasileiras. Assim, o estudo traz evidências de que a escolha da forma de apresentação das despesas na DRE não é indiferente para o usuário, já que pode afetar a sua capacidade de predizer fluxos de caixa futuros. Além disso, como contribuição prática, espera-se mostrar que os analistas podem melhorar a acurácia de suas previsões ao utilizarem o método de apresentação das despesas por natureza para realizar suas projeções, especialmente quando analisam empresas com alto nível de custos fixos. / The aim of this study is to verify if the presentation of the expenses by function in the income statement provides less predictability to the users, especially to the market analysts, compared to the presentation of expenses by nature. CPC 26 allows two forms of presentation of expenses at the income statement, by function and by nature, what is characterized as an accounting choice of presentation. However, if the company opts for disclosure by function, it must also present information by nature in an explanatory note, given that this information presents predictive capacity, according to the IASB. In Brazil, the Law No. 6.404 /76 induces most of companies to disclose expenses by function, which makes the information by nature also available for most companies. Studies had already analyzed how measurement and recognition criteria affect a predictive capacity of the information disclosed. Other works suggest that accounting recognition and measurement choices may interfere in analysts\' forecasts. However, the way in which the choice of presentation of items in the income statement interferes in the predictive capacity of users, especially for market analysts, is not sufficiently clear in the literature. More specifically, regarding to expenses presentation, it is not known whether the choice of one method over another can generate differences for the predictive capacity of the user. It was analyzed a sample of 54 Brazilian publicly companies belonging to six sectors of BOVESPA over a five-year period, using panel data analysis. Overall, the results suggest that information by nature is more predictive for the user and that analysts can improve the accuracy of their forecasts using the information of expenses presented by nature, since this information is available in an explanatory note in the financial statements of Brazilian companies. Thus, the study provides evidence that the choice of expenses presentation at the income statement is important to the user, as it may affect their ability to predict future cash flows. Moreover, as a practical contribution, this study shows that analysts can improve the accuracy of their forecasts by using the method of presenting expenses by nature to carry out their projections, especially when analyzing companies with high fixed costs.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-04-23T15:13:40Z No. of bitstreams: 1 José Antonio Cescon_.pdf: 2309850 bytes, checksum: aed6465c39716ff0455633261671bd8e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-23T15:13:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 José Antonio Cescon_.pdf: 2309850 bytes, checksum: aed6465c39716ff0455633261671bd8e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-01-18 / Nenhuma / O processo de formação da tomada de decisão tem na moderna teoria de finanças o pressuposto de que os investidores agem de forma racional no mercado, são avessos ao risco, buscam a maximização da utilidade esperada, que os mercados são altamente eficientes e que os investidores exploram todas as oportunidades de arbitragem. Se esta premissa estiver correta, como então explicar porque investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro adquirem, mantém e/ou recomendam ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo, já que estas empresas em tese estão prontas para a liquidação. Esta contestação a racionalidade ilimitada dos agentes do mercado financeiro tem sua base nas finanças comportamentais. Partindo destas premissas essa tese buscou compreender como se dá a formação do processo da tomada de decisão de investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro em relação à compra/venda/manutenção e/ou recomendação de ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo listadas na B3 (Brasil, Bolsa e Balcão). Primeiramente montou-se uma carteira de investimentos, cuja composição é somente de empresas que adentraram ao patrimônio líquido negativo para verificar se ocorreram retornos positivos anormais para investimentos em empresas neste tipo de situação. A carteira foi formada com 77 empresas de um total de 208 que apresentaram pelo menos um trimestre de patrimônio líquido negativo no período de análise de retorno da carteira que foi de 1998 à 2016. Comparando o resultado desta carteira com investimentos livre de risco (Poupança e CDI) e a um investimento de risco similar (IBrX50), na análise da carteira buscou-se confirmar se é possível obter retornos positivos anormais em determinado período com investimentos em empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo e se este retorno propiciado é condizente com a relação risco/retorno preconizado pela moderna teoria de finanças. Os resultados encontrados apontam que é possível obter resultados positivos anormais, porém não atendem a relação risco/retorno se comparado a um investimento livre de risco. Estes resultados serviram de base para o desenvolvimento da tese proposta de que a formação do processo da tomada de decisão por parte de investidores e analistas do mercado financeiro trata-se de um processo de decisão parcialmente racional, pois este processo é afetado por aspectos comportamentais. Para confirmar esta tese, foram realizadas entrevistas com investidores (22) e analistas do mercado financeiro (09), que possuíram, possuem, recomendaram, recomendam a compra/venda e/ou manutenção de ações de empresas com patrimônio líquido negativo. As questões semiestruturadas das entrevistas foram suportadas pela moderna teoria de finanças e pelos vieses comportamentais: Contabilidade Mental; Aversão a Perda; Fuga ao Arrependimento; Efeito Disjunção, Efeito Manada, Loteria, Excesso de Confiança, Excesso de Otimismo e Ilusão Monetária. O método utilizado foi a análise de conteúdo, tendo como base as premissas da Hipótese do Mercado Eficiente (HME) e das Finanças Comportamentais (FC). Os resultados encontrados conduziram a três categorias de processos na formação da tomada de decisão. A 1ª categoria “Processo Racional”, atende a premissa da HME, de que tanto o investidor quanto os analistas são racionais. A 2ª categoria “Processo Pseudorracional”, atende parcialmente a premissa da HME, quanto atende parcialmente a premissa das Finanças comportamentais. A 3ª categoria “Processo Comportamental” atende a premissa das Finanças comportamentais. Os resultados demonstram que individualmente nenhum dos investidores ou analistas do mercado financeiro entrevistados podem ser classificados dentro de uma categoria específica, neste sentido não há um processo totalmente Racional, Pseudorracional ou Comportamental. / The process of forming decision-making has in the modern theory of finance the assumption that investors act rationally in the market, are risk-averse, seek to maximize expected utility, that markets are highly efficient, and that investors exploit arbitration opportunities. If this premise is correct, how then explain why investors and financial market analysts acquire, maintain and/or recommend shares of companies with negative equity, since these companies are ready for settlement. This challenge to the unlimited rationality of financial market agents has its basis in behavioral finance. Based on these premises, this thesis sought to understand how the decision-making process of financial market investors and analysts is formed in relation to the purchase/sale/maintenance and/or recommendation of shares of companies with negative equity listed on B3 (Brazil, Stock Exchange and Counter). Firstly, an investment portfolio was set up, whose composition is only of companies that went into negative equity to verify if there were abnormal positive returns for investments in companies in this type of situation. The portfolio was formed by 77 companies out of a total of 208 that had at least one quarter of negative equity in the period of analysis of portfolio returns that was from 1998 to 2016. Comparing the result of this portfolio with risk-free investments (Savings account and CDI) and a similar risk investment (IBrX50), the analysis of the portfolio sought to confirm if it is possible to obtain abnormal positive returns in a given period with investments in companies with negative equity and if this return provided is consistent with the risk ratio / return advocated by the modern theory of finance. The results show that it is possible to obtain abnormal positive results, but they do not meet the risk/return relationship when compared to a risk-free investment. These results served as a basis for the development of the proposed thesis that the formation of the decision-making process by financial market investors and analysts is a partially rational decision process because this process is affected by behavioral aspects. To confirm this thesis, interviews were conducted with investors (22) and financial market analysts (09), who owned, have, recommend, the purchase/sale and/or maintenance of shares of companies with negative equity. The questions of these interviews were supported by the behavioral biases: Mental Accounting; Loss Aversion; Fear to Repentance; Disjunction Effect, Herd Effect, Lottery, Excess of Confidence, Excess of Optimism and Monetary Illusion. The method used was content analysis, based on the assumptions of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (HME) and Behavioral Finance. The results found led to three categories of process in the formation of decision making. The 1st category "Rational Process", meets the HME premise that both the investor and the analysts are rational. The second category "Pseudo-rational Process", partially meets the premise of HME, as it partially meets the premise of behavioral finance. The 3rd category "Behavioral Process" meets the premise of Behavioral Finance. The results demonstrate that individually none of the investors or financial market analysts interviewed can be classified within a specific category, in this sense there is not a totally Rational, Pseudo-rational or Behavioral process.

研究顯示，家族企業之數量與經濟影響力在全球企業環境中迅速成長並占有一席之地，成為具競爭力的存在，本研究以我國2001至2008年的上市（櫃）公司為樣本，探討財務分析師針對家族與非家族企業在預測行為上之差異，本研究之迴歸模型以分析師預測誤差、追蹤意願及預測離散程度三種特性分析財務分析師的預測行為，研究顯示相較於非家族企業，分析師對家族企業之預測意願較低，追蹤數量明顯較少，在預測結果上，家族企業會使分析師的預測產生較大的誤差，且各分析師間預測結果的差異程度也較大，本研究藉此結果推論家族企業中控制股東與其他股東代理問題的存在，及家族成員擔任管理者或董事等重要職位導致董事會喪失監督職能，在資訊揭露的數量與品質上表現較差。 / Prior research shows that family firms have grown rapidly and played an important role in the global corporate environment. This study examines the relation between family firms and financial analysts’ earnings forecast behaviors in Taiwan from year 2001 to 2008. I use several analysts forecast attributes: forecasts error, number of analysts following, and forecast dispersion. The results indicate that family firms generally have less analysts following, greater analysts’ forecast errors and greater forecast dispersion. These findings support the argument that the existence of conflict between majority and minority shareholders and that family members serving as managers or members of the board may weaken the disclosure of the quantity and quality of firm-specific information.

Problem: Interim and annual reports are some of the most crucial sources of information regarding companies’ performances. Interested parties such as analysts and investors assess this information and compare it with expectations. Analysts’ expectations of companies’ interim reports are of great importance when analysing the future development of share movement. Possible deviations between analysts’ expectations and actual presented results from the individual companies might change the perceptions of specific future stock prices. Furthermore business sectors have different characteristics and might respond differently to unexpected earnings news. Over- and underperformance of the presented results in relation to analysts’ expectations could create specific stock price movements over a forthcoming period depending on the nature of the report. The authors label this phenomenon as persistent trends. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis was to establish whether persistency and trends could be observed in the future development of companies’ stock prices with regard to analysts’ expectations and the true result presented by the companies. Method: With a quantitative approach the authors conducted an event study aiming to fulfill the purpose of this thesis. The study consisted of all fourth quarter reports presented 2001 throughout 2004 by the companies presently listed on the Most traded section of the Stockholm stock exchange A-list. The authors defined the nature of the studied reports as positive or negative depending on whether the pre-tax earning exceeded or were lower than the analysts’ expectations. Furthermore the authors constructed a mathematical formula which distinguished if the possible deviation of actual results compared to expectations was significant. The share price performance for two months subsequent to the earnings announcement was recorded and compared with the OMXS30 development for the equivalent time, thereby the authors gathered empirical evidence to fulfill the purpose. Furthermore the data was also divided into business subcategories to provide answers to whether there was uniform response to unexpected earnings information among business sectors. Results: The authors presented empirically founded evidence for the existence of persistent trends following the presentation of both positive and negative reports. The authors also rejected the presence of a uniform response to deviating earnings information in the business sectors.

<p>Problem: Interim and annual reports are some of the most crucial sources of information regarding companies’ performances. Interested parties such as analysts and investors assess this information and compare it with expectations. Analysts’ expectations of companies’ interim reports are of great importance when analysing the future development of share movement. Possible deviations between analysts’ expectations and actual presented results from the individual companies might change the perceptions of specific future stock prices. Furthermore business sectors have different characteristics and might respond differently to unexpected earnings news. Over- and underperformance of the presented results in relation to analysts’ expectations could create specific stock price movements over a forthcoming period depending on the nature of the report. The authors label this phenomenon as persistent trends.</p><p>Purpose: The purpose of this thesis was to establish whether persistency and trends could be observed in the future development of companies’ stock prices with regard to analysts’ expectations and the true result presented by the companies.</p><p>Method: With a quantitative approach the authors conducted an event study aiming to fulfill the purpose of this thesis. The study consisted of all fourth quarter reports presented 2001 throughout 2004 by the companies presently listed on the Most traded section of the Stockholm stock exchange A-list. The authors defined the nature of the studied reports as positive or negative depending on whether the pre-tax earning exceeded or were lower than the analysts’ expectations. Furthermore the authors constructed a mathematical formula which distinguished if the possible deviation of actual results compared to expectations was significant. The share price performance for two months subsequent to the earnings announcement was recorded and compared with the OMXS30 development for the equivalent time, thereby the authors gathered empirical evidence to fulfill the purpose. Furthermore the data was also divided into business subcategories to provide answers to whether there was uniform response to unexpected earnings information among business sectors.</p><p>Results: The authors presented empirically founded evidence for the existence of persistent trends following the presentation of both positive and negative reports. The authors also rejected the presence of a uniform response to deviating earnings information in the business sectors.</p>

財務預測相較於歷史性財務報表而言，其決策之攸關性較大。我國自民國80年5月起開始實施強制性財務報表迄今，已成為資本市場中相當重要的訊息，惟隨著我國證券市場規模逐步擴大，公司面臨之經濟環境日趨複雜，為符合國際作法及實務需要，故行政院金融監督管理委員會證券期貨局於93年12月9日依據證券交易法第三十六條之一，發布金管證六字第930005938號函，修正財務預測制度改採自願公開方式（並得以簡式或完整式方法擇一為之），並參考國外有關預測性資訊公開之相關規定及實務運作方式，配合相關配套措施，以增進資本市場效率及決策品質。 　　宣告取消財務預測強制公開揭露制度後，實證結果顯示：(1)對股價會產生一負向的效果，有顯著的負向異常報酬產生，且消息提前反應於市場上；在交易量方面，有顯著異常增加的情形發生。(2)對資訊特性不同分組採單變量分析，結果顯示公司規模及分析師人數可解釋宣告效果大小，兩組之間均達顯著水準。(3)公司規模越大時，股價反應越小，顯示公司規模與宣告異常報酬率間呈負向關係，亦即規模效果存在；但交易量反應越大。(4)分析師人數越多時，股價反應越小；但交易量反應越大，且較少分析師人數公司來得顯著。 / Financial forcast is more relevant than historical financial statements. Our country began to implement the mandatory financial forcast since May, 1991, has already become a very important information in the capital market. While the economic environment becoming complicated, in order to meet international practices, so on December 9, 1993, change the firm can dicide disclosure their financial forcast by themselves, in order to promote the efficiency of capital market and decision quality. The empirical results show that：(1) For stock price, it will produce negative effect; on the other hand, trading volume is significant increaseing. (2) For groups with different level of information characteristics, the results show that firm size and the number of ananlysts can explain that declaring effect. (3) When the size of firm is larger, the stock price is smaller; but the trading volume is larger. (4) The number of analysts is larger, the response of stock price is smaller; but the trading volume is larger in response.

近年來國內外許多企業層出不窮的發生管理階層舞弊案，使得投資人以及債權人對於企業公開發佈財務資訊之信心大受影響，公司若能開誠佈公告知利害關係人其相關之資訊，不僅能提升公司之資訊透明度，亦能重拾投資人的信心，故公司資訊透明度為廣受重視之議題。分析師擁有專業知識分析公司的財務報表且能提供額外的資訊給投資大眾，並扮演了公司重要的外部監督機制。 本研究旨在探討公司資訊透明度、分析師跟隨與公司績效之關聯性。採用台灣證券暨期貨發展基金會所公布的資訊揭露評鑑系統結果作為資訊透明度的替代變數，來探討當公司資訊透明度揭露程度較低時，分析師跟隨人數愈多是否愈能增加公司之績效。此外，本研究採用標準普爾之評等分數作為穩健性測試，來驗證結果是否相ㄧ致。研究結果顯示：公司資訊透明度較佳的公司相較於揭露程度較差之公司，其績效愈高。公司績效愈好，分析師跟隨人數愈多。資訊透明度揭露程度較差的公司，分析師的跟隨人數會愈少。無論公司資訊透明度好或壞時，分析師跟隨人數愈多，均能增加公司之績效，且資訊透明度揭露程度較差的公司相較於資訊透明度揭露程度較好的公司，分析師跟隨人數愈多，愈能增加公司之績效。穩健性測試之結果亦有相ㄧ致的發現。 / In recent years there were lots of frauds by managers in domestic and international enterprises, causing investors and creditors lose confidence on financial reporting. It is believed that if the company management can frankly and earnestly disclose related information to the stakeholders, the company’s transparency and thus the investors’ trust will be promoted. Corporate information transparency has become an important issue. Analysts have professional skills to analysis financial statements and disclose additional information to investors and also play an important role in supervising corporation’s operating condition. The purpose of this study is to discuss the association among corporate information transparency, analysts following and firms performance. The research uses the evaluated result of The Information Disclosure and Transparency Ranking System as the disclosure transparency proxy variable to examine whether the companies with lower disclosure level have higher firms performance if more analysts follow these enterprises. In addition, this paper uses Standard and Poor’s rating scores to do robust check. The empirical results indicate follows: 1.The higher information disclosure level companies have higher firms performance than the lower information disclosure level companies. 2.Enterprises with better firm performance have a larger analyst following. 3.Analysts are less likely to follow firms with lower corporate information transparency. 4.Corporate information transparency plays an important role in analysts’ willingness to follow firms and that increased analyst following is associated with higher firm performance, particularly for firms with lower corporate information transparency. 5.The result of robust check reaches a consistent conclusion.