歷經國內外多起知名企業的財務弊案後，各國政府及投資人開始關注公司的資訊透明度，企業也意識到資訊透明度對於企業永續經營的重要性，因此，本研究主要探討資訊透明度對於企業價值之影響。研究貢獻在於以具有專業和分析能力之分析師預測行為作為判斷企業資訊透明度之依據，進而探究其與企業價值之關聯性。本研究以2008年到2013年台灣上市(櫃)公司為樣本，以企業價值(Tobin’s Q)為應變數，資訊透明度相關之變數(分析師追蹤意願、分析師盈餘預測偏誤與分析師盈餘預測離散性)為主要解釋變數，在控制公司成長面、獲利面、風險面與公司規模因素，並固定產業和年份，利用追蹤資料迴歸模型(panel regression)來進行分析。 實證結果分為兩部分，（1）代表資訊透明度之變數－分析師預測意願、分析師預測精準度及分析師預測離散性與企業價值具有顯著正向關係。另利用前述之結果，本研究自行建立一個衡量企業透明度的模型，以整合性資訊探討資訊透明度對於企業價值的影響，實證結果顯示（2）資訊透明度與企業價值間確實具有顯著正向關係，結果支持良好的資訊透明度，有助於公司治理，長期間更能夠提升企業價值與永續經營。此外，本研究以整合資訊衡量企業資訊透明度，相較於單一資訊更為完善，也提供企業利害關係人及一般大眾不同面相去了解企業的資訊透明度，進而保護其權益。 / Since the occurrences of financial scandal, issues surrounding corporate governance and information disclosure have been widely discussed in these few years. Not only have government and investors started paying more attention on information transparency, but more and more firms have noticed that well corporate governance could help its sustainable development. The main purpose of this study is to examine the influences of information transparency on corporate value. Based on the samples of Taiwan listed firms for the period from 2009 to 2013, this study employs panel regression model with Corporate value (Tobin’s Q) as the dependent variable against various combinations of explanatory variables (analysts following, analysts’ earnings forecast bias and analysts’ earnings forecast derivation). The results of this research reveal that (1) the firms with high corporate value significantly have more analysts following, less analyst's earning forecast error and the greater forecast derivation. And by using an integrated model to do further analysis, the evidence shows that (2) higher information transparency could improve the corporate governance, gain more corporate value and benefit sustainable development in the long term. What’s more, instead of unitary source, this research measures corporate information transparency via integrated sources to ensure credibility, and provides various angles for corporate stakeholders and the general public to learn further more about corporate information transparency and be able to protect their rights.

Die Arbeit untersucht Berufstätigkeit und Berufsausstieg alter Psychoanalytiker/-innen. Dazu werden der konzeptuelle Forschungsstand zum Thema referiert, zu dem es bisher fast keine empirische Forschung gab, und eigene Ergebnisse aus zwei Befragungen (eine standardisierte Fragebogenerhebung und eine Studie auf Basis berufsbiographischer narrativer Interviews) vorgestellt. Diese geben Auskunft über die hohe Erwerbsneigung der untersuchten Gruppe vor dem 1.1.1937 geborener Analytiker/-innen (69 %) und ihre Tätigkeitsfelder. Dabei zeigt sich eine Abnahme im Ausmaß der Berufstätigkeit und eine Verschiebung der Tätigkeitsfelder (von Praxistätigkeit zu ausbildungsbezogenen Tätigkeiten) mit zunehmendem Alter. Unterschiedliche Motive stehen hinter der hohen Erwerbsneigung (u.a. Identifikation mit der Psychoanalyse, Bedürfnis nach sozialer Anerkennung, Einkommensabhängigkeit). Der Übergang in den Ruhestand erfolgt in wenigen Fällen radikal mittels eines deutlichen Bruchs mit der psychoanalytischen Tätigkeit und dem fach(gesellschaft)lichen Engagement und meist gleitend durch eine langsame Verschiebung der Tätigkeitsfelder und die sanfte Reduzierung der Praxistätigkeit (häufig). Herausforderungen und Probleme der Übergangszeit werden dargestellt und daraus Empfehlungen für eine „Kultur des Übergangs“ abgeleitet.

Made available in DSpace on 2010-04-20T20:51:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 142184.pdf.jpg: 20410 bytes, checksum: 720b476fe32b25d220b0dde4d663ee25 (MD5) 142184.pdf: 373613 bytes, checksum: 1b6743be6830c2ae7ab8245255b9ad6b (MD5) 142184.pdf.txt: 120505 bytes, checksum: be4e63d920365eb874f914450f641b26 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005-10-17T00:00:00Z / A presente dissertação analisa o erro de projeção dos analistas de investimentos do sell side, definido como a diferença entre o consenso das projeções dos analistas e o resultado reportado pela empresa. O tamanho do erro de projeção é uma medida da qualidade das projeções dos analistas de um determinado mercado de capitais. Uma vasta literatura acadêmica mostra que uma melhora na qualidade das projeções dos analistas, medida através de uma diminuição do tamanho do erro de projeção, está relacionada com a redução da assimetria de informação e com um aumento do valor de mercado das empresas. São testadas duas regressões, nas quais características das empresas, como setor, tamanho, endividamento e variabilidade do lucro, e características do ambiente de informação da empresa, como listagem de ADR, número de analistas que acompanham a empresa e convergência das projeções, são testadas contra duas métricas do erro de projeção, acurácia e viés. Nossas hipóteses são que existem fatores que influenciam de maneira significativa o tamanho do erro de projeção (acurácia) e o viés das projeções (viés). Estas hipóteses foram confirmadas, isto é, nossas regressões apresentaram pelo menos um fator que se mostrou significativo estatisticamente para influenciar o tamanho do erro de projeção (hipóteses H1 e H2) ou o seu viés (hipótese H3). Entretanto, os resultados mostram que vários fatores que se mostram significativos em testes conduzidos em mercados desenvolvidos – tais como tamanho, endividamento e variabilidade do lucro – não se mostraram significativos no mercado brasileiro. Por outro lado, os fatores relacionados com o resultado do ano projetado ou do ano anterior se mostraram fortemente significativos. Acreditamos que os resultados podem ser explicados de três maneiras: 1) ou a capacidade de adicionar valor dos analistas em relação a modelos estatísticos de projeção é muito pequena, devido à sua falta de habilidade; ou 2) a instabilidade macroeconômica é tão grande domina todos os outros fatores que poderiam influenciar o tamanho do erro de projeção; ou 3) os resultados das empresas nos mercados desenvolvidos são tão administrados, isto é, tão estáveis, que permitem que fatores mais sutis como o tamanho, o nível de endividamento e a variabilidade do lucro se tornem significativos. Esta dissertação não permite distinguir qual das explicações é a correta. Uma de suas limitações é não incluir variáveis referentes à habilidade e experiência dos analistas e, também, variáveis relacionadas a fatores como governança corporativa e disclosure de informações. Em uma linha de pesquisa muito extensa nos países desenvolvidos, mas praticamente inexistente no Brasil, esperamos que estudos futuros supram estas lacunas e nos permitam entender melhor a questão da qualidade das projeções de resultados no contexto brasileiro. / The current dissertation analyses the forecast error of the sell side analysts in the Brazilian context, defined as the difference between the forecast consensus and the company earnings effectively reported. The size of the forecast error is used as a proxy for the quality of the forecast produced by the analysts of a specific stock market. A vast academic literature shows that an improvement in the quality of the forecasts produced by the analysts, measured by a decrease in the size of the forecast error, is related with a decrease in the asymmetry of information in such market and by an increase in the market value of its companies. Two regressions are tested, in which company characteristics, such as sector, size, leverage and variability of earnings, and characteristics of the company’s information environment, such as ADR listing, number of analysts following and forecast convergence, are tested against two metrics of forecast error, accuracy and bias. Our hypotheses are that there are factors that impact significatively both the size of the forecast error (accuracy) and the bias presented by the projections (bias). The hypotheses are confirmed, that is, the regressions present at least one factor that impacts significantly either the size of the forecast error (hypotheses H1 and H2) or the bias (hypothesis H3). However, the results show that many factors that are significant in tests conducted in developed markets – such as size, leverage and earnings variability – are not significant in the Brazilian context. On the other hand, factors related to the company results in the fiscal year being forecast and in the previous year result to be strongly significant. We believe that these results can be explained in three ways: 1) either forecasts produced by Brazilian analysts add very little value over statistical models, probably because of lack of ability; or 2) the macroeconomic instability in Brazil is so great that its influence on the companies’ results dominates all other factors that could impact the size of the forecast error; or 3) the earnings management of the companies in the developed markets is so widespread, leading to such a stability of earnings, that it allows for more subtle factors such as size and leverage become significant. This study does not allow us to distinguish which one is the correct explanation. One of its limitations is not to include variables related to the ability and experience of the analysts, as well as variables related to governance and disclosure. In a body of research that is very extensive in developed countries, but practically inexistent in Brazil, we hope that future research fills these gaps and allow us to better understand the issue of the quality of earnings forecast in the Brazilian context.

The aim of this thesis is to explore the adaptability of the Evidential Reasoning (ER) Rule as a method to provide a useful supporting tool for helping investors make decisions on financial investments. Decision making in financial investment often involves conflicting information and subjective judgment of the investors. Accordingly, the ER Rule, extended from the original popular Evidential Reasoning algorithm and developed for MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision Making), is particularly suited for handling conflicts in information and to allow for judgmental weighting on the sources of evidence. In order to do so, a specific EIA (Efficient Information Assessment) process modeled by the mass function of Dempster-Shafer Theory has been constructed such that the underlying architecture of the model satisfies the requirement of the ER rule. The fundamental concern is to define and assess “efficient information”. For this purpose, a process denoted the Efficient Information Assessment (EIA) is defined which applies the mass function of Dempster-Shafer theory. Any relevant information selected from an expert’s knowledge database is “efficient” if the data is fully in compliance with the requirement of the ER rule. The logical process of the EIA model proceeds with a set of portfolio strategies from the information recommended by top financial analysts. Then, as a result, the model enables the ER rule to make an evaluation of all strategies for helping investors make decisions. Experiments were carried out to back-test the investment strategy using data from the China Stock Market & Accounting Research (CSMAR) Database for the four-year period between 2009 and 2012. The data contained more than 270,000 reports from more than 4,600 financial analysts. The risk-adjusted average annual return of the strategy outperformed that of the CSI300 index by as much as 10.69% for an investment horizon of six months, with the p value from Student’s t-test as low as 0.02%. The EIA model serves as the first successful application adapting the ER Rule for a new and effective decision-making process in financial investment, and this work is the only empirical study applying the ER Rule to the opinions of financial analysts, to the best of my knowledge.

The thesis presents the results of a study on the impact of International Financial Reporting Standards on the analysts information environment. The analysis is concentrated on the role of specific IFRSs and corporate disclosure. The effect of IFRS adoption on the information asymmetry between firms and outsiders is examined through properties of analysts earnings forecasts. A contribution to the existing academic literature is made by examining the role of goodwill, intangible assets and acquisitions before and after IFRS adoption in Europe. The results show that the IFRSs for goodwill, acquisitions and intangible assets are related to improvements in the analysts information environment. Another contribution to knowledge is made by investigating the effect of corporate disclosure quantity on the analysts information environment before and after IFRS adoption. For this purpose, a new approach and text analysis technique to assess the impact of corporate disclosure quantity is developed. This involves the creation of a new custom dictionary and the collection of an extensive set of qualitative data. The results show that corporate disclosure quantity under IFRS, is related to improvements in the analysts information environment but that there are differences in this effect across European countries. The results also demonstrate that the improvements in the accuracy of analysts earnings forecasts are related particularly to disclosure concerning financial instruments and operating segments. Overall, the findings of the thesis suggest that the adoption of IFRS resulted in an increase in the quality of reported earnings, which is likely to derive from higher comparability of financial statements, enhanced transparency and an improved analysts information environment. It is also established that fundamental differences across countries remain after IFRS adoption and that the development and harmonisation of financial reporting standards alone are not sufficient to increase the quality of financial information and decrease information asymmetry between market participants.

Cette thèse de doctorat comporte trois chapitres distincts. Dans le premier chapitre, nous étudions le comportement moutonnier d'investisseurs individuels français. Notre analyse empirique repose sur une base de données de presque 8 millions de transactions réalisées entre 1999 et 2006 par 87 373 investisseurs individuels français. Nous montrons que le comportement moutonnier persiste dans le temps et que la performance passée ainsi que le niveau de sophistication influencent ce comportement. Nous tentons également d'apporter une réponse à une question très peu abordée dans la littérature : adopter un comportement moutonnier est-il profitable pour l'investisseur individuel ? Notre analyse empirique indique que les investisseurs contrariants obtiennent des rendements plus extrêmes (positifs ou négatifs) que les investisseurs moutonniers. Dans le second chapitre, nous montrons que mesurer la précision d'une prévision du prix futur d'une action n'est pas suffisant pour évaluer la qualité de cette prévision car la prévisibilité des prix est susceptible d'évoluer dans le temps et dépend du titre considéré. Nous montrons que la persistance dans les différences individuelles de précision des prévisions d'analystes, mis en avant dans la littérature, ne constitue pas une preuve de différences de compétences entre analystes. Cette persistance est, en réalité, causée par une persistance de la volatilité de la rentabilité des titres. Nous introduisons une mesure de qualité des prévisions qui incorpore à la fois l'erreur de prévision et la prévisibilité du prix. La théorie des options nous fournit les éléments nécessaires à l'estimation de cette prévisibilité. Lorsque celle-ci est prise en compte, il n'y a plus de différences de compétences entre analystes. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous montrons que les analystes expérimentés et inexpérimentés ne couvrent pas le même type d'entreprises. Les analystes expérimentés couvrent des entreprises de type « blue chips » tandis que les analystes inexpérimentés couvrent des entreprises petites, jeunes et en croissance. Ces différences de couvertures impliquent que les analystes inexpérimentés émettent des prévisions de prix sur des entreprises dont les rendements sont plus volatils et donc moins prévisibles. En conséquence, la précision des prévisions n'est pas une bonne mesure pour évaluer si les analystes expérimentés sont meilleurs ou moins compétents que les analystes inexpérimentés. Lorsque ces différences de couvertures sont prises en compte, nous obtenons que les analystes expérimentés émettent néanmoins de meilleures prévisions. Bien que statistiquement significatif, l'impact économique de l'expérience des analystes est faible. / This dissertation is made of three distinct chapters. In the first chapter, we introduce a new measure of herding that allows for tracking dynamics of individual herding. Using a database of nearly 8 million trades executed between 1999 and 2006 by 87,373 individual investors, we show that individual herding is persistent over time and that past performance and the level of sophistication influence this behavior. We are also able to answer a question that was previously unaddressed in the literature: is herding profitable for investors? Our unique dataset reveals that the investors trading against the crowd tend to exhibit more extreme returns and poorer risk-adjusted performance than the herders. In the second chapter, we show that measuring the accuracy of a target price is not sufficient to assess its quality, because the forecast predictability (which depends on the stock return volatility and on the forecast horizon) is likely to vary across stocks and over time. We argue that the evidence of time persistent differences in analysts' target price accuracy, obtained in previous studies, cannot be interpreted as a proof of persistent differential abilities. Our analysis indicates that the persistence in accuracy is driven by persistence in stock return volatility. We introduce a measure of target price quality that considers both the forecast inaccuracy and the forecast predictability. Using elements from option-pricing theory, we provide a simple solution to the issue of estimating target price predictability. Our empirical analysis reveals that, when forecast predictability is taken into account, financial analysts do not exhibit significant persistent differential abilities to forecast future stock prices. In the third chapter, we show that experienced financial analysts tend to cover different firms than inexperienced analysts. Experienced analysts tend to follow blue chips (i.e., large, international, mature firms) while inexperienced analysts focus on small, young, growth-oriented firms. These differences in coverage decisions imply that inexperienced analysts issue target prices on firms for which stock returns are more volatile, and thus less predictable. As a consequence, the accuracy measure of target prices fails to evaluate differences in ability between experienced and inexperienced analysts. When taking into account these differences in coverage decisions, we still find that experienced analysts do a better job at forecasting stock prices. Our results on the influence of analysts' characteristics on target price quality are statistically significant but economically weak.

This study examines the impact of Statements of Financial Accounting Standards No. 141 and No. 142 (hereafter SFAS 141, 142) on the characteristics of financial analysts' earnings forecasts after mergers. Specifically, I predict lower forecast errors for firms that experienced mergers after the enactment of SFAS 141, 142 than for firms that went through business combinations before those accounting changes. Study results present strong evidence that earnings forecast errors for companies involved in merging and acquisition activity decreased after the adoption of SFAS 141, 142. Test results also suggest that lower earnings forecast errors are attributable to factors specific to merging companies such as SFAS 141, 142 but not common to merging and non-merging companies. In addition, evidence implies that information in corporate annual reports of merging companies plays the critical role in this decrease of earnings forecast error. Summarily, I report that SFAS 141, 142 were effective in achieving greater transparency of financial reporting after mergers. In my complementary analysis, I also document the structure of corporate analysts' coverage in "leaders/followers" terms and conduct tests for differences in this structure: (1) across post-SFAS 141,142/pre-SFAS 141, 142 environments, and (2) between merging and non-merging firms. Although I do not identify any significant differences in coverage structure across environments, my findings suggest that lead analysts are not as accurate as followers when predicting earnings for firms actively involved in mergers. I also detect a significant interaction between the SFAS-environment code and leader/follower classification, which indicates greater improvement of lead analyst forecast accuracy in the post-SFAS 141, 142 environment relative to their followers. This interesting discovery demands future investigation and confirms the importance of financial reporting transparency for the accounting treatment of business combinations.

No description available.

Abstract Title: Direct and indirect effect of notes – for actors in a stock market Background: Notes make up a significant part of the company´s annual report, but does this information have any major impact? On one side, notes should lead to less information asymmetry, which positively affects the stock market and financial analysts forecasting precision as well as this relationship depends on different contexts. The question is also asked if all information presented in the notes is too extensive, which creates information overload for financial analysts. Purpose: The purpose is to explain the effects of more information in accounting notes for actors in equity markets in different contexts that have the same accounting standard. Method: The study applies a cross-sectional design together with a deductive approach to investigate whether the amount of note information has a relationship with financial analysts forecasting precision, stock volatility and stock liquidity. For these relationships, moderating effects will also be tested. The hypotheses arose through theories of asymmetric information, effective market hypothesis, cognitive load theory and system-orientated theories. Conclusion: The study rejects the relationship between note information and errors in financial analyst forecast, stock volatility as well as stock liquidity. However, the results show a significant positive relationship between note information and error in forecasting precision. Financial analyst forecasting precision show that the relationship is affected by three different contexts. Despite the relationship between note information and stock liquidity were rejected when tested on the overall sample is the relationship affected by two different contexts. / Sammanfattning Titel: Direkta och indirekta effekter av noter - För aktörer på en aktiemarknad Bakgrund: Noter utgör en väsentlig del av företags årsredovisning men har den informationen någon större påverkan? På ena sidan bör noter leda till mindre informationsasymmetri, vilket påverkar aktiemarknaden och finansiella analytikers prognosprecision positivt samt att detta samband även beror på olika kontexter. Frågan ställs även ifall informationen som presenteras i notavsnittet är för omfattande, vilket skapar informationsöverbelastning för finansiella analytiker. Syfte: Syftet är att förklara effekten av ökad delgivande av information i redovisningsnoter på aktörer på aktiemarknaden i olika kontexter som tillämpar samma redovisningsstandard. Metod: Studien tillämpar en tvärrsnittsdesign tillsammans med en deduktiv ansats för att undersöka ifall mängden notinformation har något samband med finansiella analytikers prognosprecision, aktievolatilitet och aktielikviditet För dessa samband testas även modererande effekter. Hypoteserna uppstod genom teorierna asymmetrisk information, effektiva marknadshypotesen, kognitiv belastningsteori och systemorienterade teorier. Slutsats: Studien förkastar sambandet mellan notinformation och fel i prognosprecision, aktievolatilitet och aktielikviditet. Däremot visar resultatet ett positivt signifikant samband mellan notinformation och fel i prognosprecision. Finansiella analytikers prognosprecision uppvisar även att sambandet påverkas av tre olika kontexter. Trots att sambandet mellan notinformation och aktielikviditet förkastas när den testas på en övergripande nivå, påverkas sambandet av två olika kontexter.

[pt] A finalidade do presente trabalho é a de refletir acerca das mudanças no lugar do analista – e de uma possível complexificação de seu trabalho psíquico – advindas a partir do encontro com a clínica dos sofrimentos narcísico-identitários. Tais pacientes trazem para o campo analítico um tempo anterior à aquisição da linguagem verbal, fazendo com que o analista volte sua escuta para discursos que englobam a totalidade do corpo e incluem ainda o afeto, instaurando novas possibilidades de comunicação. Dentro desta especificidade da clínica, é importante ressaltar a relevância que o objeto e a qualidade da sua resposta ganham, tanto na história pregressa do sujeito quanto na relação analítica, para que os processos de simbolização se desenvolvam e/ou retomem seus rumos. O lugar a ser ocupado pelo analista passa a ter um caráter mais ativo e atento às mensagens em potencial emanadas por outras vias – corpo e afeto. Essa extensão dos dispositivos analíticos abre caminho para pensar a intersubjetividade como momento instaurador da subjetividade, destacando sua importância na clínica, uma vez que esse processo passa necessariamente por um momento essencial de relação com um outro fundamental, que deve auxiliar no reconhecimento de si e no processo de subjetivação. / [en] The aim of this dissertation is to analyze the changes that take place within the analytic setting – and a possible complexification of the analyst s psychic work – when the analysis refers to a narcissistic-identity disorder. These clinical cases confront the analyst with the need to broaden his listening skills to recognize non-verbal communication (body and affect) as messages coming from an ancient time before language acquisition. Considering this form of communication as a specificity of this type of clinical encounter, it is important to highlight the great significance of the object and the quality of his responses in the subject s past history as well as within the analytical relationship to facilitate the development of the symbolization processes and/or to let them resume their course. The analyst plays a more active role within the analytic relationship, being aware of the potential messages originating from other sources – body and affects. The expansion of the analytic method opens the possibility of defining intersubjectivity as a key moment for the construction of the subjectivity. In other words, the process of subjectivation depends on the quality of the relationship established with a fundamental other and it is of utmost importance to recognize its clinical value.