This doctoral thesis is a collection of four papers on the analysis of the term structure of interest rates with a focus at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance. "Risk in Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Bond Return Predictability" documents that factors related to risks underlying the macroeconomy such as expectations, uncertainty and downside (upside) macroeconomic risks are able to explain variation in bond risk premia. The information provided is found to be, to a large extent, unrelated to that contained in forward rates and current macroeconomic conditions. "Out-of-sample bond excess returns predictability" provides evidence that macroeconomic variables, risks in macroeconomic outcomes as well as the combination of these different sources of information are able to generate statistical as well as economic bond excess returns predictability in an out-of-sample setting. Results suggest that this finding is not driven by revisions in macroeconomic data. The term spread (yield curve slope) is largely used as an indicator of future economic activity. "Re-examining the predictive power of the yield curve with quantile regression" provides new evidence on the predictive ability of the term spread by studying the whole conditional distribution of GDP growth. "Modeling and forecasting the yield curve by extended Nelson-Siegel class of models: a quantile regression approach" deals with yield curve prediction. More flexible Nelson-Siegel models are found to provide better fitting to the data, even when penalizing for additional model complexity. For the forecasting exercise, quantile-based models are found to overcome all competitors. / <p>Diss. Stockholm :  Stockholm School of Economics, 2014. Introduction together with 4 papers.</p>

Den Europeiska Unionen är en mångfacetterad samling länder med ett brett spektra av historisk bakgrund, geografisk placering och ekonomiska förhållanden. I denna uppsats undersöks huruvida en gemensam europeisk identitet kan bidra till en ökad tillit från medborgarna i unionen till EU som institution. Uppsatsens teoretiska underlag består av tidigare forskning. Denna forskning skapar ett fundament för den statistiska modell som används för att besvara frågeställningen. Med hjälp av data samlad ur bland annat Eurobarometerrapporter tar uppsatsen, via multipel linjär regression, fram en modell som förklarar förhållandet mellan den beroende variabeln ”förtroende för EU” och de oberoende variablerna ”uppfattning av gemensam europeisk identitet”, ”avstånd till Bryssel”, ”BNP per capita” och ”antal år som medlem i EU”. Resultatet visar en koppling mellan en högre grad av upplevd gemensam identitet hos medborgarna i ett land och ett ökat förtroende för EU. Vidare visar modellen ett negativt samband mellan förtroendet för EU och ett stigande värde på var och en av de övriga förklaringsvariablerna. Med andra ord: ju längre avstånd till Bryssel, ju högre BNP per capita och ju längre medlemskap i unionen desto lägre förtroende känner den genomsnittlige medborgaren för EU. / The European Union is a diverse group of countries characterized by a wide spectra of historical background, geographical location and economic situation. The topic of this essay is whether a common European identity can contribute to an increased level of trust from the citizens towards the EU as an institution. Previous research constitute the theoretical basis of the essay. Using this research, I create the foundation for the statistical model used to answer the question at issue. Using multiple linear regression on data gathered from Eurobarometer reports and other sources, I create a statistical model that explains the relationship between the dependent variable “trust in EU” and the independent variables “feeling of being an EU-citizen”, “distance to Brussels”, “BNP per capita” and “number of years as member of EU”. The results shows a connection between a higher level of feeling of being an EU-citizen and a higher level of trust in EU. Moreover, the model shows a negative connection between trust in EU and an increasing value on each of the other independent variables. In other words: the further away the average citizen is from Brussels, the higher level of BNP per capita her country has and the longer her country has been a member of the EU, the lower trust she has in the EU.

Syfte: International Standards on Auditing (ISA) är ett ramverk för revision som introducerats för att öka revisionskvaliteten globalt. Övergången till ISA ökar kontinuerligt bland världens länder. En bidragande orsak är att EU har antagit övergången i det åttonde bolagsrättsliga direktivet. Trots fördelarna råder ett visst motstånd mot ISA i delar av världen. Med stöd från tidigare litteratur antar vi att detta kan förklaras av kulturella skillnader, medlemskap i EU, skillnader av legalt system och marknadens orientering, samt storlek på ekonomin. Arbetets syfte är att undersöka om dessa faktorer påverkar den globala spridningen av ISA.   Metod: Vi har inkluderat 60 länder i vår studie. De variabler som har undersökts för varje nation är: Hofstedes kulturella variabler, EU-medlemskap, BNP, legalt system samt ekonomisk inriktning. Sekundärdata har samlats in från allmänt accepterade källor. Insamlade data har sedan bearbetats med statistiska metoder.   Resultat och slutsats: Resultaten från vår studie har visat att Hofstedes kulturella faktorer inte har samband med antagandet av ISA. Endast ett fåtal av de övriga variablerna visade signifikans med antagandet, nämligen EU-medlemskap och BNP. EU är därmed en viktig faktor för övergången till ISA. Variabeln EU visade ett signifikant samband med Hofstedes kulturella variabler. Det råder därmed kulturella skillnader mellan länderna inom och utanför EU, som i sin tur har påverkan på antagandet av ISA. Vår slutsats är att EU-medlemskap och storlek på ekonomin har påverkan på ländernas benägenhet för att anta ISA.   Förslag till fortsatt forskning: Studiens komplexitet gör att det finns möjligheter att göra större fördjupningar med fler och annorlunda mätvariabler. Det finns även möjlighet till liknande studier av hur kulturella faktorer påverkar övergången till andra internationella ramverk inom finansiell rapportering.   Uppsatsens bidrag: Föreliggande undersökning lämnar ett unikt bidrag till redovisningslitteraturen genom att vara den första studien att undersöka den internationella spridningen av revisionsstandarder i form av ISA och bidra till minskning av informationskostnader för företag runt om i världen. / Aim: International Standards on Auditing (ISA) is a framework introduced to improve auditing quality globally. Adoption of ISA is increasing continuously around the world. An essential contributing factor is the accepting of the Eighth Company Law Directive by the EU. However, the ISA adoption is far from been accepted by all countries; despite its obvious advantages. Prior work identifies cultural differences, EU-membership, size of economy, and differences in legal systems and market orientation as key factors in this adoption process. The study aims to examine if these factors influence global spreading of ISA.   Method: Our study includes 60 countries. The variables that have been introduced for each country are: Hofstede’s cultural variables, membership in the EU, GDP, type of legal system and economics. Secondary data were collected from generally accepted sources. The collected data were then analyzed using statistical methods.   Result and conclusions: The results of our study have shown that Hofstede’s cultural factors are not associated with ISA adoption. Only few other variables have shown significance with the hypothesis. These variables are EU-membership and GDP. Therefore, EU is an important factor for ISA adoption. Variable EU has shown significance with Hofstede’s cultural factors. This proves cultural differences between EU and other countries, which in turn influences ISA adoption. Our conclusion is that EU-membership and economy size influence inclination to ISA-adoption.   Suggestions for future research: The study's complexity gives opportunities to make future extensions by adding more variables. It is possible to conduct similar studies of cultural influence on the adoption of other international frameworks within financial reporting.   Contribution of the thesis: Our research makes a unique contribution to the accounting literature by being the first study to examine the international spreading of auditing standards in form of ISA and contributing to reducing information costs in the companies all around the world.

A Constituição federal de 1988 determina em seus artigos 158 a 162 quais são as transferências intergovernamentais de receitas fiscais entre os entes federados (União, estados, Distrito Federal e municípios). Uma destas transferências é o repasse de 25% da arrecadação do ICMS dos estados para os municípios denominada Cota-parte do ICMS. Dos 25% do ICMS a serem transferidos, 75% devem ser repassados, proporcionalmente, ao VAF municipal que é o valor adicionado nas operações relativas à circulação de mercadorias e nas prestações de serviços realizadas em seus territórios, mais especificamente, a diferença entre as entradas e saídas de mercadorias e serviços do município. Neste contexto, o objetivo geral desta pesquisa foi analisar a forma de distribuição da Cota-parte do ICMS entre os 853 municípios mineiros, tendo como objeto de estudo principal o repasse baseado no VAF que é regulamentado pela Lei Complementar 63/1990. O período de estudo foi de 2010 a 2013 e a teoria base foi o federalismo e o federalismo fiscal que trata da repartição de receitas fiscais entre os entes federados. Tratouse de uma pesquisa descritiva, quantitativa e documental, realizada a partir dos relatórios disponibilizados pela Secretaria de Estado da Fazenda de MG – SEF/MG, Siconfi/STN e Fundação João Pinheiro – FJP. Foram aplicados os testes estatísticos Análise de Variância em Blocos Casualizados na Estrutura Aninhada ou Hierárquica e o teste Skott-Knott para comparar as estimativas de médias da Cota-parte do ICMS e do VAF entre os municípios e territórios de desenvolvimento. Os resultados destes testes demostraram, por meio dos agrupamentos formados, que não há semelhança entre elas. Para medir o grau de concentração das variáveis foi calculado o Coeficiente de Gini e plotada a Curva de Lorenz e para verificar se existe associação entre as variáveis VAF, PIB e Cota-parte do ICMS foi aplicado o teste Correlação Linear de Spearman. Além destes, foi analisada a composição da receita total dos municípios por meio de gráficos e planilhas eletrônicas. Os resultados da análise da concentração da Cotaparte do ICMS em Minas Gerais revelaram um alto grau de concentração, mesmo sendo incluído no cálculo os 25% repassados aos municípios por meio da aplicação dos critérios redistributivos da Lei 18.030/2009 - Lei Hobin Hood. Revelou-se ainda que a concentração está nos municípios que possuem maior produção de bens e serviços. / The Federal Constitution of 1988 states in its articles 158-162 which are the intergovernmental transfers of tax revenues between the federal agencies (Federal, State, Federal District and Municipalities). One of these transfers is the transfer of 25% of the ICMS collection of states to municipalities called Cota-part of the ICMS. 25% of the ICMS to be transferred, 75% must be transferred proportionally to the municipal VAF, which is the value added in the transactions regarding the circulation of goods and the rendering of services carried out in their territories, more specifically, the difference between the inputs and outputs of goods and services of the Municipality. In this context, the general objective of this research is to analyze the distribution of quota-part of the ICMS among the 853 municipalities of Minas Gerais, being the main object of this study, the transfer based on VAF which is regulated by Complementary Law 63/1990. The study period was from 2010 to 2013 and the base theory was federalism and fiscal federalism which deals with the division of tax revenues between the federal entities. This was a descriptive, quantitative and desk research conducted from reports provided by the State of MG Finance - SEF / MG, Siconfi / STN and João Pinheiro Foundation - FJP. ANOVA statistical tests were applied in randomized blocks in Nested or hierarchical structure and Skott-Knott test to compare the averages of estimates of Cota-part of the ICMS and VAF between municipalities and development of territories. The results of these tests demonstrated by means of groups formed, there is no similarity between them. To measure the degree of concentration of the variables we calculated the Gini coefficient and plotted the Lorenz curve and to investigate the association between VAF variables, GDP and quota-part of the ICMS it was applied linear correlation test of Spearman. In addition, it was analyzed the composition of the total revenue of the municipalities through graphs and spreadsheets. The results of analyzing the concentration of quota-part of the ICMS in Minas Gerais showed a high degree of concentration, even being included in calculating the 25% allocated to municipalities through the implementation of redistributive criteria of Law 18.030 / 2009 - Law Robin Hood. It also revealed that the concentration is in the municipalities that have greater production of goods and services. / Dissertação (Mestrado)

A key lesson learnt from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis was that central banks focused too much on price stability and monetary policy. Financial stability and macroprudential policy were the missing pillars to ensure proper supervision of the financial system. This study examines the challenges faced by central banks in implementing macroprudential policies, while having limited experience as to the effect on their economies. The countercyclical capital buffer is generally considered to be one of the main macroprudential policy instruments. Using South African data, the study furthermore calculates the credit gap which serves as early warning indicator of excessive credit growth and is used to determine the point at which a countercyclical capital buffer should be activated for banks. The calculation of the countercyclical buffer indicates that the credit gap remains below the lower threshold of the buffer add-on. Hence, there is no reason to consider a capital add-on for South African banks as yet. Despite the overall reliability of the credit gap, concerns remain on its reliability under certain circumstances. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Submitted by Johnny Rodrigues (johnnyrodrigues@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-08-29T20:33:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 CECIR BARBOSA DE ALMEIDA FARIAS - TESE PPGEE 2008..pdf: 3519703 bytes, checksum: 32a6ddd97df6cc8d338729152ef94012 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-29T20:33:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 CECIR BARBOSA DE ALMEIDA FARIAS - TESE PPGEE 2008..pdf: 3519703 bytes, checksum: 32a6ddd97df6cc8d338729152ef94012 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-10-02 / CNPq / Freqüentemente no desenvolvimento de projetos ocorrem desperdícios, defeitos e prazos esgotados. Na área de desenvolvimento de software também percebemos isso com muita ênfase, onde projetos complexos são desenvolvidos com dificuldades, apesar de existirem técnicas, modelos ou ferramentas tradicionais de gestão de projetos. Deadlines são estendidos e o custo do software acaba sendo incrementado significativamente. Os modelos de gestão de projetos tradicionais não são muito adequados a projetos de grande escala e com demanda de curto prazo. As ferramentas de gerenciamento de projetos não dão cobertura ao acompanhamento de processos e projetos (tempos, custos, recursos e atividades) de software simultaneamente. As metodologias de desenvolvimento de software existentes representam muitos avanços para auxiliar no desenvolvimento de sistemas, mas falta uma utilização mais adequada delas nos projetos, de acordo com a complexidade do tipo de aplicação desenvolvida e suas características específicas. Este trabalho é centrado na extensão de uma rede para gerenciamento de projetos, chamada Rede de Atividades, desenvolvida para detalhar informações sobre o desenvolvimento de processos e projetos, calcular e atualizar custos, tempos, especificar recursos humanos e o desenvolvimento de atividades. Esta rede é o componente principal de um ambiente integrado de gerência de desenvolvimento projetos, denominado GDP, considerando o desenvolvimento de projetos em quatro camadas: (1) determinação da metodologia adequada; (2) modelagem da metodologia; (3) modelagem do projeto específico; (4) execução do projeto. Para determinar a qualidade estrutural de uma Rede de Atividades e permitir simulações e cálculos corretos dos custos e prazos de um projeto, foi desenvolvido um tipo especial de rede de Petri, denominado Rede de Projeto, e determinada a conversão de uma Rede de Atividades em uma Rede de Projeto. / Frequently in the development of projects occurs waste of resources, defects and missing deadlines. In the software development area this issue becomes more significant, where complex projects are developed with difficulty, although techniques, models and traditional tools for project management are popular. Deadlines always are extended and the cost of software being developed gowns significantly. The traditional models of project management don‘t fit very well to large projects with a short schedule. The actual project management tools do not cover the track of both processes (times, costs, resources and activities) and software projects. The actual software development methodologies represent many advances to assist a manager into a software development process, but it lacks a more adequate use of them, in accordance with the specific complexity of the type of application being developed and its characteristics. This work is centered in the extension of a net for project management, called Activities Net, designed to track detailed information about the development of processes and projects, calculate and update costs, allocate human resources and schedule activities. This net is the main component of an integrated environment for project development management, called GDP, based on a four-layer approach: (1) determine de best methodology; (2) model the metodology; (3) model the project; (4) execute the project. In order to determine the structural quality of an Activities Net and allow simulations and correct cost a time calculations, a special class of Petri Nets has been developed, called Project Net (NP). Also the mapping of an Activities Net to a Project Net has been defined.

Submitted by HELENO PIAZENTINI VIEIRA (helenopv@gmail.com) on 2014-05-09T14:03:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Velocidade da moeda, inflação e ciclos de negócios no Brasil, 1900-2013.pdf: 1362534 bytes, checksum: 0cbd1b1891b345cdf3b1487cd6c24344 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2014-05-09T17:51:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Velocidade da moeda, inflação e ciclos de negócios no Brasil, 1900-2013.pdf: 1362534 bytes, checksum: 0cbd1b1891b345cdf3b1487cd6c24344 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-09T19:40:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Velocidade da moeda, inflação e ciclos de negócios no Brasil, 1900-2013.pdf: 1362534 bytes, checksum: 0cbd1b1891b345cdf3b1487cd6c24344 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-04-22 / A presente tese é composta por três ensaios. O primeiro ensaio estuda os ciclos de negócios brasileiro no período dos anos 1900 até 2012. Uma série trimestral do PIB real é elaborada, utilizando um modelo estrutural de séries de tempo. A partir disso, um modelo com mudança Markoviana é proposto para que seja construída uma cronologia de ciclo de negócios. O modelo selecionado possui dois regimes distintos, cenários de expansão e de recessão, a datação obtida é comparada com outros estudos sobre o tema e são propostas caracterizações das fases de crescimento que podem apoiar estudos sobre a história econômica do Brasil. O segundo ensaio estuda o comportamento da velocidade da moeda no ciclo de negócios brasileiro de 1900 até 2013. Os resultados a partir das estimativas dos modelos de séries temporais, MS e GARCH, são utilizados para suportar esse estudo. Em termos gerais a velocidade da moeda no Brasil apresentou queda até a segunda Guerra Mundial, cresceu até meados dos anos 1990 e a partir disso segue em tendência de queda. A experiência inflacionária brasileira é capítulo importante de nossa história econômica. O objetivo do terceiro ensaio é estudar a volatilidade da inflação brasileira ao longo do tempo no período de 1939 até 2013, buscando descrever sua relação com a taxa de inflação, adotando como referência uma datação de ciclos de negócios. Para realizar essa descrição serão utilizados os resultados obtidos nas estimações de modelos econométricos das classes GARCH, BSM e MS. No caso brasileiro a indicação é que a taxa de inflação impacta positivamente sua volatilidade. / This doctoral thesis is composed by three essays. The first one studies the Brazilian business cycles during the years 1900 to 2012. A quarterly real GDP measure is produced using a structural model of time series. For this, Markov Switching model is proposed to be constructed a chronology of business cycle. The selected model has two distinct regimes scenarios of expansion and recession, the dating obtained is compared with other studies on the subject are proposed characterizations and the stages of growth that can support studies on the economic history of Brazil. The second paper studies the behavior of the velocity of money in the Brazilian business cycle from 1900 to 2013. The results from the estimation of models for time series GARCH and MS, are used to support this study. In general the velocity of money in Brazil fell to the Second World War, has grown to the mid-1990s and from this follows on a downward trend. The Brazilian inflation experience is important chapter in our economic history. The objective of the third paper is to study the volatility of the Brazilian inflation over time in the period 1939 to 2013, trying to describe his relationship with the rate of inflation, taking as a reference dating of business cycles. To conduct this description the results obtained in the estimations of GARCH, MS and BSM models classes will be used. In the Brazilian case the indication is that the inflation rate positively impacts the volatility of this variable.

This thesis describes the currently highly debated topic especially in the field of small and medium sized enterprises - technology transfer. This, together with research and development which is an integral part, can greatly contribute to enhancing the competitiveness of the country, improve the problem of unemployment, GDP and inflows of foreign investors and so on. The aim was to analyze and describe the current situation of technology transfer in the Czech Republic. This work clearly shows that in this area, our country is far behind the developed countries. The result of this work is to propose possible solutions to the most streamlined recovery process of technology transfer resulted into obtaining maximum economic benefit for the Czech Republic.

Thesis is focused on regional policy of the European Union (known as cohesion policy). The goal of the regional policy is to reduce regional disparities among the member countries of the European Union. Therefore, regional policy has an important role among other policies of the European Union. In the period from 2007 to 2013, regional spending account for 36% of the EU budget. The recent enlargement to 27 Member States has dramatically increased disparity levels across the EU. The new Member States have lower levels of income per head and employment rates than other EU countries. This thesis is divided into two parts. The first part characterizes development of the regional policy, its principles and financial instruments. The second part describes enlargement of the European Union to 27 member states, its impacts, reform of the regional policy and the time period from 2007 to 2013. Different views on impacts of the regional policy together with short case study are added. The goal of this thesis is to evaluate the convergence process among the old and new Member states.

The diploma thesis deals with the issues and economic impacts of the system of Intellectual Property Rights protection in China. The work is divided into three main chapters. The theoretical framework of the system of Intellectual Property Rights is explained in the first part of the diploma thesis. It is focused on the detailed analysis of the most important types of Intellectual Property Rights, that can be found in People's Republic of China. Different ways how to protect our rights in this area are also covered in this section. The second part describes the current situation in China and compares it with some developed countries. The third part at the beginning try to find the connections between IPR system and economic growth. Then it describes the process of the implications of IPR system on the Growth of Chinese Economy and in conclusion explains the strategic importance of Intellectual Property Rights system in chinese economic growth.