Global ETD Search

1	The economic analysis of relaxing frequency control Chown, Graeme Andrew 12 August 2008 (has links) Abstract will not load on to DSpace ancillary services automatic generation control balancing market economic benefits
2	Analysis of Balancing Markets Kiener, Elsa January 2006 (has links) During the 20th century, most countries had their electricity production, transport and distribution organised as vertically integrated monopoly. Since the 90s more and more countries, especially in Europe, have replaced their state monopoly by an open market to manage their electrical power system. In order to settle a deregulated market of electricity, countries must adopt new methods and rules for trading electricity, planning production and managing the balance between electricity production and consumption of national power systems. In this context new tools are needed, such as software tools and information systems. This master thesis is part of an R&D project, aiming at developing software tools for the implementation of electricity markets, especially the mechanisms of bidding to buy and sell electricity on the Balancing Market. The new software developed by this R&D project is a generic software, based on a flexible model, and it should be adapted to different systems of electricity markets. The present master thesis report explains the principles and processes of electricity markets, focusing on the auction mechanisms for the purchase of electricity in real time: the Balancing Market. The report exposes different methods to regulate the stability of electricity network in different European countries (Regulation Services to maintain the balance between electricity production and consumption), and analyses different systems of Balancing Market in various countries; more specifically, it inludes syntheses of the balancing market systems in Romania, Hungary, Germany, France and the Nordic countries. From the confrontation of those systems, the basis for a new flexible model has been developed. This report aims to be useful for people who have to work on a project related to electricity market (especially this R&D project) and need to acquire the required knowledge about markets of electricity, regulation services and balancing markets (especially the market systems of Romania, Hungary, Germany, France and the Nordic countries). electricity market balancing market regulation services power system� Elektroteknik och elektronik
3	Vliv obnovitelných zdrojů na systémovou odchylku v České republice / The Impact of Renewable Electricity on the Czech Electricity Balancing Market Kašparová, Amálie January 2021 (has links) As global investments in renewable energy technologies continue to grow, their effects on electricity markets are a challenge for regulators and policymakers. The thesis examines the effects of forecast errors of Czech and German renew- able energy sources on the size and volatility of the system imbalance of the Czech balancing market. Using a quantile regression and ARFIMA-GARCH models on hourly data, I found that higher solar and wind forecast errors in- crease the system imbalance in absolute terms and affect the volatility. The results show that the Czech solar and wind forecast errors have significantly higher effect than the German forecast errors on the size and volatility of the system imbalance. The strongest effect on the size and volatility of the system imbalance have the Czech solar forecast errors. Therefore, the Czech govern- ment should insist on improving the accuracy and availability of renewable energy forecasts from the transmission system operator ČEPS. Klasifikace JEL C14, C50, Q42 Klíčová slova renewable sources, forecast errors, balanc- ing market, system imbalance
4	Evaluation of a Minute Synthesis Irradiation Model for the Frequency Containment Reserve : Disturbance down-regulation market Luz Pedemonte, Pablo Omar January 2022 (has links) With the increase in energy demand, and therefore, in energy generation, new high voltage direct current export links and overseas connections of large amounts of power are being introduced. These new links are subject to possible malfunction or failures, which may causea substantial frequency increase in the power system. The need of restorative measurements for over-frequencies is then necessary to regulate this probable imbalance. A new ancillary market product for frequency down-regulation is then being introduced. The Frequency Containment Reserves – Disturbances for downregulation is a service used to handle overfrequencies in the power system. The ancillary market has been historically dominated by hydro, however, with the local plans that set goals to reach 100 % renewable electricity production by the year 2040, ineluctably solar and wind will be occupying a large share of the energy generation, thus the amount of renewable resources to provide ancillary services will increase as well. Nevertheless, requirements to participate in the ancillary market are strict, and renewables face challenges such as unpredictable power generation, making forecasting tools essential for their participation. In this thesis, through the literature and research of an emerging field, the synthetic solar irradiance, an algorithm with adjusted parameters is replicated with the objective of downscaling solar irradiance presumptive-forecasts from 15-minute intervals to 1-minute intervals. An updated clear-sky model, and weather categorization method is used as input to improve the results of the synthesis. A year evaluation with a method to detect irradiance dips is used to evaluate the algorithm. The result of this study contributes with positive outputs. The introduction of this secondary tool to estimate higher resolution irradiance variability data proves to obtain, at 57 % of the point-to-point critical cases examination, an over-estimation of the measured irradiance. This, in turn, grants the actors that participate with solar power the option to adjust the bidding strategy process in the ancillary market accordingly to the output of this tool. Energy Systems Energisystem
5	Day-ahead modelling of the electricity balancing market : A study of linear machine learning models used for modelling predictions of mFRR volumes Bankefors, John January 2024 (has links) The study aimed to define and investigate relevant parameters affecting manual frequency restoration reserve (mFRR) volumes of the balancing market in the Finnish price area. It also aimed to find suitable models and investigate Day-ahead prediction possibilities of mFRR volumes. Parameters related to mFRR volumes Day-ahead predictions were identified in several earlier studies where of nine parameters were investigated. The correlations between mFRR volumes and the different parameters were investigated using Spearman’s correlation. Different linear machine learning models for Day-ahead predictions of mFRR volumes were builtand tested in Python. The resulting models used for predicting mFRR volumes in Python were one ARIMAX model and one SARIMAX model. The models were validated with a walk-forward method where Day-ahead predictions were conducted monthly for one year. The accuracy of the predictions was measured by the validation parameters Mean Absolute Value, Root Mean Square Error and Median Absolute Deviation. Results from the study show that it is difficult to predict absolute activated mFRR volumes. Although, it might be possible to predict that mFRR volumes will be activated or not, up- or down regulated to some extent. One explanation of the difficulties in predicting mFRR volumes is dueto mFRR being a balancing product whose function is to regulate disturbances in the electricity grid. mFRR Manual Frequency Restoration Reserve electricity markets electricity balancing market linear machine learning ARIMA ARIMAX SARIMAX Energy Systems Energisystem
6	Utvecklingen av marknadsvärdet för svenska frekvenshållningsreserver 2024–2030 : En prognos för utvecklingen av marknadsvärdet för frekvenshållningsreserverna FCR-N, FCR-D upp och FCR-D ned på den svenska balansmarknaden mellan 2024 och 2030 / The Development of the Market Value of Swedish Frequency Containment Reserves 2024–2030 : A forecast for the development of the market value for the frequency containment reserves FCR-N, FCR-D up and FCR-D down in the Swedish balancing market between 2024 and 2030 Ludvig, Aldén, Gustav, Espefält, Gabriel, Gabro January 2024 (has links) I takt med en ökad andel variabel förnybar elproduktion i Sveriges energimix blir elnätets flexibilitet allt viktigare för att upprätthålla en stabil elförsörjning. Detta arbete undersöker framtida prognoser för priser och volymer på de svenska frekvenshållningsreserverna FCR-N, FCR-D upp och FCR-D ned fram till år 2030. Prognoser för sådan utveckling är viktiga för elmarknadens aktörer och deras beslut att investera i flexibilitetsresurser. SARIMAX-modeller utvecklades baserade på historisk data och antaganden om framtida utvecklingar, vilka i sin tur grundades på en intervju med en branschexpert samt aktuella kartläggningar och rapporter. Resultaten visar på en markant nedåtgående pristrend. För FCR-N prognostiseras priserna sjunka med 367 % från 2024 till 2030, från 29 euro/MW till 5 euro/MW. FCR-D upp förväntas följa en liknande trend med ett prisfall på 325 %, från 20 euro/MW år 2024 till 4 euro/MW år 2030. Den kraftigaste prisnedgången prognostiseras för FCR-D ned, där priserna beräknas rasa med över 1900 % under samma period - från 61 euro/MW år 2024 till endast 3 euro/MW år 2030. Vad gäller volymer visar prognoserna på en relativt stabil utveckling kring upphandlingsplanerna, med en viss ökning för FCR-D ned på 44 % från 2024 till 2030. Den pågående etableringen av batterilager förutses ha stor påverkan genom att öka konkurrensen och pressa priserna nedåt. De låga prisnivåerna 2030 kan dock göra det utmanande att motivera investeringar enbart baserat på intäkter från FCR-marknader. Vidare diskuteras modellernas begränsningar samt behovet av framtida forskning kring batteriteknik, råvaruaspekter och avancerade simuleringsmodeller för att bättre förstå marknadsdynamiken. / As the share of variable renewable electricity production increases in Sweden's energy mix, the flexibility of the power grid becomes increasingly important to maintain a stable electricity supply. This study aims to forecast prices and volumes of the Swedish frequency containment reserves FCR-N, FCR-D up, and FCR-D down until 2030. Forecasts of such developments are important for electricity market participants and their decisions to invest in flexibility resources. SARIMAX models were developed based on historical data and assumptions about future developments, which in turn were based on an interview with an industry expert as well as current reports. The results indicate a significant downward price trend. For FCR-N, prices are forecasted to decrease by 367% from 2024 to 2030, dropping from 29 euros/MW to 5 euros/MW. FCR-D up is expected to follow a similar trend with a 325% price drop, from 20 euros/MW in 2024 to 4 euros/MW in 2030. The sharpest price decline is forecasted for FCR-D down, where prices are estimated to plummet by over 1900% during the same period - from 61 euros/MW in 2024 to only 3 euros/MW in 2030. Regarding volumes, the forecasts show a relatively stable development around the procurement plans, with a certain increase for FCR-D down by 44% from 2024 to 2030. The ongoing establishment of battery storage is expected to have a major impact by increasing competition and putting downward pressure on prices. However, the low price levels in 2030 may make it challenging to justify investments based solely on revenues from FCR markets. Furthermore, the limitations of the models are discussed, as well as the need for future research on battery technology, raw material aspects, and advanced simulation models to better understand market dynamics. FCR frequency containment reserves FCR-N FCR-D up FCR-D down upregulation downregulation variable renewable energy VRE power grid power system flexibility electricity supply stable forecast electricity market SARIMAX time series modeling data price volume market value energy storage battery storage battery park batteries competition time series flexibility resource flexibility service risk system effect future scenarios scenario balancing market volume development investment decisions scenario analysis uncertainty management sensitivity analysis competitive situation commodity prices technology development policy impact capacity expansion profitability calculations risk management FCR frekvenshållningsreserver FCR-N FCR-D upp FCR-D ned uppreglering nedreglering variabel förnybar energiproduktion VRE elnät kraftsystem flexibilitet elförsörjning stabil prognos elmarknad SARIMAX tidsseriemodellering data pris volym marknadsvärde energilagring batterilager batteripark batterier konkurrens tidsserie flexibilitetsresurs flexibilitetstjänst risk systemeffekt framtidsscenarier scenario balansmarknad volymutveckling investeringsbeslut scenarioanalys osäkerhetshantering känslighetsanalys konkurrenssituation råvarupriser teknologiutveckling policypåverkan kapacitetsutbyggnad lönsamhetsberäkningar riskhantering Energy Systems Energisystem

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