With widespread of harmful attacks against enterprises' electronic services, information security readiness of these enterprises is becoming of increasing importance for establishing the required safe environment for such services. Various approaches are proposed to manage enterprise information security risks and to assess its information security readiness. These approaches are, however, not adequate to manage information security risks, as all required information security components of its structural and procedural dimensions have not considered. In addition, current assessment approaches lack numerical indicators in assessing enterprise information security readiness. Furthermore, there is no standard approach for analysing cost versus benefit in selecting recommended protection measures. This thesis aims at contributing to the knowledge by developing comprehensive Enterprise Information Security Risk Management (EISRM) framework that integrates typical approaches for information security risk management, and incorporates main components of key risk management methodologies. In addition, for supporting phases of the proposed EISRM framework, analytical models for enterprise information security readiness assessment and cost-benefit analysis are developed. The practical evaluation, using the proposed enterprise information security readiness assessment model has been performed depending on a developed investigation form that used to investigate nine enterprises inside Saudi Arabia. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the model in assessing and comparing enterprises information security readiness at all levels of the model, using numerical indicators and graphical representations. The EISRM framework and the analytical models presented in this research can be used by enterprises as single point of reference for assessing and cost effectively improving their information security readiness.

<p>När en kommersiell hamn byggs ut fordras omfattande muddringsarbete för att säkerställa ett brukligt djup för sjöfart. Då stora delar av muddermassorna ofta är förorenade av tungmetaller och miljögifter krävs särskilt omhändertagande av dessa. Traditionella omhändertagningsalternativ består av att deponera massorna på särskild avsedd plats på land eller tippa till havs, något som inte tillåts för förorenade sediment. En relativt ny metod är stabilisering/solidifiering (S/S) som innebär att muddermassorna behandlas med ett bindemedel för att sedan kunna användas som fyllnadsmaterial i exempelvis kajkonstruktioner. Dessa alternativ behöver noga vägas mot varandra med hänsyn till ekonomiska och miljömässiga aspekter. Föreliggande studie undersöker  ventuella brister i de ekonomiska värderingar som genomförts inför  utbyggandet av Oxelösunds hamn. Vidare genomförs en begränsad cost-benefit analys (CBA) för att värdera alternativen utifrån emissionsnivåer till luft och vatten. Resultatet visar att S/S innan nyttiggörande är det samhällsekonomiskt mest attraktiva alternativet.</p> / <p>When a commercial port is expanding its activities there is need for dredging to secure a safe depth for water borne traffic. The sediments are to a large extent contaminated by metals and toxins which calls for certain treatment. Traditionally sediments have either been disposed of at a specific location on land or dumped at sea; the latter is however not permitted by law. A relatively new method is stabilization/solidification (S/S) which means that the sediments are treated using a solidifying agent after which it is possible to use the dredged materials as filling in construction of jetties. These alternatives need to be carefully compared with respect to economical and environmental aspects. This thesis investigates the potential shortcomings of conducted economical evaluations prior to the expansion of Oxelösund port. Further, a limited cost-benefit analysis is conducted to evaluate the alternatives with respect to emissions of contaminants to air and water. The results show that S/S before utilization of the dredged materials is the most attractive alternative from an economical point of view.</p> / STABCON

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / The Navy has several tools at its disposal to shape the force, including early separation incentives. This analysis looks at the issues surrounding the separation incentives including the discount rate for government use, the discount rate used by individuals to make a decision (personal discount rate), comparable civilian sector wages for separating personnel, promotion probabilities, and the costs to the government of maintaining personnel until retirement. Using the information provided from researching these topics, a model was created to identify the present value of retirement payments for officers given their current rank, age, and years of service. The model provided a maximum amount the government should be willing to offer to separate an officer early. This model was compared to a second model which determined the minimum amount an officer would be willing to accept to separate before retirement. Recommendations for future methods of shaping the force were provided to maximize savings to the Navy based on data generated from the model. / Captain, United States Marine Corps

Master of Science / Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering / Anil Pahwa / Unpredictable power outages due to environmental factors such as lighting, wind, trees, and animals, have always been a concern for utilities because they are often unavoidable. This research aims to study squirrel-related outages by modeling past real-life outage data and provide the optimal result which would assist utilities in increasing electric system reliability. This research is a novel approach to benchmark system performance in order to identify areas and durations with higher than expected outages. The model is illustrated with seven years (2005-2011) of animal-related outage data and 14 years of weather data (1998-2011) for four cities in Kansas, used as training data to predict future outages. The past data indicates that the number of outages on any day varies with the seasons and weather conditions on that day. The prediction is based on a Bayesian Model using conditional probability table, which is calculated based on training data. Since future weather conditions are unknown and random, Monte Carlo Simulation is used with the past 14 years of weather data to create different yearly scenarios. These scenarios are then used with the models to predict expected outages. Multiple runs of Monte Carlo analysis provide a probability distribution of expected outages. Further work discusses about cost-to-benefit analysis of implementation of outage mitigation methods. The analysis is performed by considering different combinations of outage reduction and mitigation levels. In this research, eight cases of outage reduction and nine cases of mitigation levels are defined. The probability of benefit is calculated by a statistical approach for every combination. Several optimal strategies are constructed using the probability values and outage history. The outcomes are compared with each other to propose the most beneficial outage mitigation strategy. This research will immensely assist utilities in reducing the outages due to squirrels more effectively with higher benefits and therefore improve reliability of the electricity supply to consumers.

The present thesis is concerned with the construction of by-pass road of the town Roudnice nad Labem and its potential impacts. It briefly describes traffic situation in Roudnice and possible solutions of traffic issues of the town. Theoretical section of the thesis defines a cost-benefit analysis and other assessment methods used for civic projects. The thesis also focuses on external cost and the contribution traffic brings in general as well as with respect to the particular area. The data acquired have been used for drawing a project CBA which addresses the matter of civic efficiency of the construction.

É possível medir a eficiência do Estado? A proposta desta dissertação de mestrado é apresentar a avaliação de impacto regulatório AIR como uma das ferramentas possíveis e existentes para atender a esse desafio exigido pela Constituição Federal a partir da Emenda Constitucional 19/98, tendo como referencial analítico as decisões regulatórias. A AIR é instrumento de controle da atividade regulatória do Estado por meio de procedimento administrativo voltado à análise das decisões regulatórias a serem adotadas ou já adotadas pelos agentes reguladores com base em evidências empíricas, resultando na introdução de mecanismos de legitimação democrática e de responsabilização do regulador. Ela se baseia no uso sistemático de análises dos possíveis custos e benefícios das várias alternativas existentes para atender à(s) finalidade(s) desejada(s) e sinalizada(s) nas políticas públicas setoriais. Fala-se em mecanismos de legitimação democrática e de responsabilização do regulador diante do seu potencial de reduzir o déficit democrático presente no modelo do Estado regulador, em que o agente administrativo não eleito, no exercício de seus poderes, toma decisões que podem gerar impacto significativo aos particulares. Sustenta-se que isso é possível por meio da transparência e da publicidade do processo de tomada de decisão a partir da utilização da AIR pelos agentes reguladores. Esse aspecto leva a outro: a AIR como instrumento de controle. Essa ferramenta também possibilita a redução do risco da agência presente na delegação de poder do principal (Poder Legislativo e o Chefe do Poder Executivo) para o agente (agentes reguladores). A AIR ganha especial importância com o Programa de Fortalecimento da Capacidade Institucional para Gestão em Regulação (instituído pelo Decreto 6.062 de 16 de março de 2007) que tem como objetivo idealizar e implementar essa ferramenta na administração pública federal. / Is it possible to measure State efficiency? This dissertation aims to introduce regulatory impact assessment RIA as an existing possible tool to tackle this challenge assigned by the Federal Constitution in the constitutional amendment 19/98. RIA is an instrument to control the State via an administrative procedure based on the analysis of empirical evidences of regulatory decisions either to be taken or already taken by regulators. As a result, it introduces democratic legitimacy mechanisms and accountability of regulators. Its methodology is based on the systematic use of cost-benefit analysis of proposed alternatives in order to apply a public policy in a regulated sector. The mechanisms for democratic legitimation and accountability of regulators are justified by its potential to reduce the democratic deficit within the regulatory State, in which the non-elected administrative agent, in the exercise of his/hers own powers, makes decisions that can impact individuals. This is due to the transparency and publicity of the decision-making process that derives from the adoption of RIA. Another aspect then arises: RIA as an instrument of control. This tool will enable the reduction of the agency risk characteristic of the power delegation from the principal (Legislative Power and chief of Executive Power) to the agent (regulators). RIA gets more attention with the creation of the governmental program for strengthening the institutional capacity for regulation (Presidential Decree 6.062, March, 16th of 2007), whose scope is to conceptualize and implement such a tool in the federal public administration.

Sistemas gerenciais em estabelecimentos de saúde podem ser considerados sistemas complexos, tendo em vista interação entre diferentes tipos de agentes na tomada de decisão (médico, paciente, gestor, entre outros), observação de transições de fase em epidemiologia, emergência de padrões de comportamento auto-organizado entre profissionais de saúde e incertezas quanto ao desfecho em saúde pós-tratamento. Em geral, os sistemas de apoio à decisão médica buscam maximizar resultados positivos e minimizar riscos em saúde aos pacientes, assim como propor diretrizes terapêuticas padronizadas e controlar custos em saúde. Há evidências de diferenças nos custos e benefícios derivados de sistemas decisórios Bayesianos centralizados (única distribuição a priori) e descentralizados (uma distribuição a priori por médico) aplicados ao processo de decisão de reserva de leito de Unidades de Terapia Intensiva (UTI) para períodos pós-operatórios. A existência de interação entre médicos com diferentes papéis no sistema decisório de indicação de UTI requer técnicas sofisticadas de avaliação econômica para comparação de vantagens e desvantagens associadas sistemas decisórios Bayesianos centralizados e descentralizados; tendo em vista que a aplicação de técnicas simples, como árvores de decisão ou cadeias de Markov, podem apresentar resultados imprecisos. Os objetivos deste estudo foram analisar a relação custo-benefício de sistemas de apoio à decisão médica centralizados e descentralizados para indicação de reserva de leito de UTI pós-operatório da perspectiva do sistema de saúde. Foi utilizada modelagem baseada em agentes, a partir de simulação de agentes usando raciocínio e atualização de crenças Bayesianos implementada no software NetLogo com análise de sensibilidade em Behavior Space. O modelo de decisão descentralizada apresenta benefício três vezes superior ao modelo centralizado (R$600 contra R$200). O modelo decisório descentralizado apresenta melhor razão custo-benefício ao sistema de saúde, permitindo maior flexibilidade na decisão médica e adaptabilidade dos agentes a diferentes situações. / Management systems in health facilities may be considered complex systems, due to the interaction among different types of agents in the decision process (physician, patient, manager, among other), observation of phase transitions in epidemiology, emergence of patterns in self-organized behavior among health professionals, and uncertainty in relation to health outcomes after treatment. In general, the medical decision support systems seek to maximize positive results and minimize risks in health to patients, as well as to propose standard therapeutic guidelines and to control the treatment costs. There are evidences of differences in costs and benefits derived from centralized (unique distribution a priori) and decentralized (one distribution a priori for each physician) Bayesian decision systems applied to the process related to decision of post-operatory booking of hospital beds in Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The existence of interaction among physicians in different roles in the decision system for ICU indication requires sophisticated techniques in economic evaluation for comparison of advantages and disadvantages associated to centralized and decentralized Bayesian decision systems; since other techniques, as decision trees and Markov chains, may present imprecise results. The objective of this study was to analyze the cost-benefit ratio of centralized and decentralized medical decision support systems for indication of booking of ICU beds in post-operatory period using the perspective of the health system. One agent-based model was applied, using simulation of agents based on Bayesian reasoning and beliefs updating implemented in the software NetLogo with sensitivity analysis in Behavior Space. The decentralized decision model presents benefits three times higher than the centralized decision model (US$270.27 versus US$90.09). The decentralized decision model presents better cost-benefit ratio to the health system, allowing enhanced flexibility in the medical decision process and adaptability of the agents to different situations.

O presente estudo realizou uma análise crítica do planejamento amostral de comunidades bentônicas de substratos inconsolidados. Para tal, foram realizadas análises de custo-benefício dos desenhos amostrais estratificados e não estratificados em ambiente computacional, através das estimativas de exatidão e precisão da amostragem. Os desenhos estratificados apresentaram melhor custo-benefício (mais exatos) do que os não estratificados, sendo que o desenho estratificado-hierarquizado foi considerado o mais custo-eficiente, com melhor precisão em comparação ao estratificado-aleatorizado. Além disso, desenho e esforço amostrais, descritor de comunidade, poder estatístico e complexidade da comunidade bentônica influenciaram a precisão da amostragem. Os conceitos obtidos foram testados em conjunto de dados reais, coletados na Enseada de Caraguatatuba (SP), com vistas à sua aplicação no âmbito do licenciamento ambiental. As tendências observadas para dados reais convergiram com as obtidas nos cenários computacionais. Quanto à aplicação no licenciamento ambiental, constatou-se que diferentes setores da sociedade divergem quanto ao número mínimo de amostras necessário para alcançar níveis adequados de precisão na avaliação de impactos ambientais. Os ambientalistas foram os mais conservadores e a comunidade científica os menos conservadores. Ainda, tanto no cenário virtual quanto no real, uma precisão de 10% resultou em esforços amostrais viáveis financeira e logisticamente, assegurando poder estatístico de 90% no teste de hipóteses / This study performed a critical analysis of the sampling planning of benthic communities in unconsolidated substrates. Cost-benefit analysis of the stratified and non-stratified sample designs were conducted in computational environment, through estimates of sampling accuracy and precision. Thestratified designs presented better cost-benefit results than the non-stratified ones, and the stratified-hierarchical design was considered the most costefficient, with better precision compared to the stratified-randomized. In addition, sampling design and effort, community descriptor, statistical power and complexity of the benthic community influenced sampling precision. These concepts were applied to real data sets collected in Caraguatatuba Bay (SP), with perspectives to its application in environmental licensing. The observed trends for real data converged with the computational scenarios. Regarding its applications for environmental licensing, it was observed that different groups in the society disagreed about the minimum number of samples necessary to achieve adequate precision in environmental impact assessment. Environmentalists were the most conservative group, while members of the scientific community were the least conservative one. Finally, both in real and virtual scenarios, a precision of 10% resulted in sampling efforts which were financially and logistically feasible, assuring a statistical power of 90% in hypothesis testing

Ziel der volkswirtschaftlichen Analyse des Precision Farming ist es, quantitativ untermauerte Aussagen bzgl. einer staatlichen Förderung der Precision Farming-Technologie zu treffen. So sind über die Methode der Nutzen-Kosten-Analyse alle relevanten Projektwirkungen identifiziert worden. Die Quantifizierung der direkten Wirkungen erfolgte am Beispiel der „Wulfen-Studie“ (Region Köthen, Sachsen-Anhalt). Für die indirekten Umweltwirkungen ist in einem ersten Schritt eine naturschutzfachliche Bewertung von Umweltgütern auf der Basis von Experteneinschätzungen erfolgt. Im zweiten Schritt wurden den einzelnen indirekten Umweltwirkungen monetäre Studienwerte aus der Literatur zugeordnet (benefit transfer). Nach Prüfen der Sensitivität und Erfassung der Intangibles zeigt die Gegenüberstellung der Nutzen und Kosten des Precision Farming, dass der Nettonutzen im Durchschnitt über die Untersuchungsjahre von +24,91 €/ha bis zu +244,80 €/ha variiert. Der Entwurf eines Heterogenitätsindikators zur Beschreibung der Beziehung zwischen Nettonutzen und Heterogenität eines Schlages führte zur Darstellung einer Heterogenitätsverteilung in Ostdeutschland. Unter der Annahme, dass die Ergebnisse der Fallstudie Wulfen auch repräsentativ für andere Regionen in Deutschland seien, erfolgte eine aussagekräftige Hochrechnung des Netto-nutzen/ha für Ostdeutschland mit einem durchschnittlichen Nettonutzen einer Einführung von Precision Farming von 45,6 Mio. €. Aufgrund der vielfältigen positiven Umweltwirkungen des Precision Farming kann eine staatliche Förderung des Precision Farming durchaus als legitim erachtet werden, besonders unter Berücksichtigung der hohen Investitionskosten für die Technik. Da unsere Aussagen aber auf vielen Annahmen beruhen, kann von dieser Stelle aus eine staatliche Förderung des Precision Farming nicht empfohlen werden. Dazu bedürfe es weiterer Forschungsarbeit. / The nationwide introduction of precision farming in Germany as a new technology in agriculture depends crucially on the incentives set by the government. Therefore, the economical analysis (cost benefit analysis) of the effects of precision farming is chosen to promote precision farming in Germany. One of the core elements of cost benefit analysis is the identification and quantification of the effects of precision farming in Germany. The direct quantification was carried out by the example of the "Wulfen study" (region Koethen, Saxonia-Anhalt). For the indirect environmental effects an experts estimation combined with a benefit analysis of those goods took place in a first step. In a second step monetary study values from literature were assigned to the individual indirect environmental effects (benefit transfer). After examining the sensitivity and the collection of the Intangibles, the net benefit of precision agriculture/ha was calculated. It varies from +24, 91 €/ha up to +244, 80 €/ha (average value over 3 years and two precision farming strategies). The regionalisation of the net benefit, calculated for the “Wulfen” region, was possible through the development of a heterogeneity indicator (HEI). This indicator describes the relationship between net benefit and site-specific heterogeneity. On the assumption that the results of the Wulfen case study are representative for other regions in Germany, the net benefit/ha was calculated to Eastern Germany. Thus does a net benefit of an introduction of precision farming on winter wheat in East Germany result of average 45,6 Mio €. Various positive environmental effects of precision agriculture appear, but with the high capital investment costs for the precision agriculture technology farmers won’t introduce this technology on their fields. Since our statements are based on many assumptions and restrictions, we cannot recommend however a national promotion of precision agriculture.

INTRODUÇÃO: Uma epidemia de coqueluche ocorreu no Brasil, de 2011 a 2014. Isto levou à introdução da vacina tríplice acelular de adultos (dTpa) no calendário público de vacinação da gestante. Existem outras estratégias de vacinação envolvendo a dTpa, que poderiam complementar o controle da doença. Os objetivos deste estudo são descrever a epidemiologia da doença e avaliar custo-efetividade da vacinação de adultos com dTpa. MÉTODOS: 1) Uma revisão de literatura foi realizada nas bases MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica, CRD e Lilacs a partir de 2000. 2) Foi desenvolvido estudo observacional incluindo dados de vacinação e os casos notificados para o sistema de vigilância no Estado de São Paulo (ESP), de 2001 a 2015. 3) Foi realizado estudo descritivo dos pacientes com idade de 20 a <40 anos atendidos em um hospital do ESP entre 2010 e 2014, destacando-se a utilização de serviços de saúde. 4) Foi desenvolvido modelo dinâmico, para comparar a estratégia de vacinação com dTpa aos 20 anos de idade com o programa atual (vacinação com dT). Dados epidemiológicos e de custos foram retirados de sistemas de informação de saúde e da literatura nacional e internacional. Foram considerados como desfecho número de casos e mortes por coqueluche e anos de vida ganho (AVG). Considerouse a perspectiva do sistema de saúde, horizonte temporal de vinte anos e custos em Reais (R$) de 2015. Os resultados foram sumarizados em razão de custo-efetividade incremental (RCEI). Análises de sensibilidade uni e multivariadas foram realizadas. RESULTADOS: 1) Foram revisadas 28 avaliações econômicas de estratégias com dTpa. A vacinação de adolescentes e de adultos foram as mais avaliadas. A correção da subnotificação, uso de modelos dinâmicos, proteção de rebanho e altas coberturas vacinas influenciaram para o bom desempenho das estratégias. 2) Houve aumento de incidência da coqueluche entre 2011 e 2014 e queda da mesma em 2015, em todas as faixas etárias no ESP. Os lactentes foram os principais acometidos, mas a proporção de casos nessa faixa etária apresentou tendência de queda ao longo dos anos. A proporção de casos com idade de 1 a < 4, 5 a = 20 anos aumentou significativamente. Houve queda não significativa na proporção dos casos com idade < 2 meses de idade. 3) Entre 36 casos estudados no hospital, 33,3% passou por consulta prévia, 25,3% por consulta de retorno e 8,33% foram hospitalizados. Hemograma e radiografia de tórax foram os exames mais realizados. Não houve complicações ou óbito. 4) A vacinação de adultos com dTpa, com cobertura vacinal de 40% e efetividade de 75%, incluindo proteção de rebanho para os menores de um ano, evitaria 19.300 casos sintomáticos e 221 óbitos em 10 anos. A RCEI seria R$28.054,38/AVG. Na análise de sensibilidade, os resultados foram mais sensíveis a variações da incidência e à retirada da proteção de rebanho. CONCLUSÃO: O comportamento cíclico da doença é a principal causa da epidemia de coqueluche entre 2011 e 2014 e queda da incidência em 2015. A vacinação de adultos com dTpa não se mostrou custo-efetiva na realidade brasileira de 2015 / INTRODUCTION: A pertussis outbreak occurred in Brazil from 2011 to 2014. This led to the introduction of the maternal vaccination with tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) in the public immunization schedule. There are other vaccination strategies involving Tdap, which could complement the strategies of disease control. The objectives of this study are to describe the epidemiology of the disease and to evaluate cost-effectiveness of vaccination of adults with Tdap. METHODS: 1) A review was performed in the MEDLINE, Excerpta Medica, CRD and Lilacs databases from 2000. 2) Observational study was performed including vaccination data and the cases reported data from health surveillance datasets in the State of São Paulo from 2001 to 2015. 3) A descriptive study of patients aged 20 to < 40 years attended at a State of São Paulo hospital between 2010 and 2014 was performed, highlighting the use of health services.4) A dynamic model was developed to compare the vaccination strategy with Tdap at the age of 20 years with the current program (dT vaccination). Epidemiological and cost data were collected from health information systems and national and international studies. Number of cases and deaths by pertussis and life years saved (LYS) were considered as outcome. It was considered the health system perspective, a time horizon of 20 years and costs in 2015 Real (R$). The results were summarized by incremental costeffectiveness ration (ICER). Univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyzes were performed. RESULTS: 1) 28 economic evaluations of strategies with Tdap were reviewed. Vaccination of adolescents and adults were the most evaluated strategies. Underreporting correction, use of dynamic models, herd protection and high vaccination coverage influenced positively the performance of strategies. 2) The incidence of pertussis increased between 2011 and 2014, and its fall in 2015, among all age groups. Infants were the main affected, but the proportion of cases in this age group showed a downward trend over the years. The proportion of cases aged 1 to < 4, 5 to = 20 years increased significantly. There was a non-significant decrease in the proportion of cases aged < 2 months of age. 3) Among 36 cases studied in the hospital, 33.3% had a prior medical visit, 25.3% a return visit, and 8.33% were hospitalized. Blood count and chest X-ray were the most performed exams. There were no complications or death. 4) Vaccination of adults with Tdap, with 40% vaccine coverage and 75% effectiveness, including herd protection for children less than one year, would prevent 19,300 symptomatic cases and 221 deaths in 10 years. The ICER would be R$ 28,054.38/AVG. In the sensitivity analysis, the results were more sensitive to variations in incidence and withdrawal of herd protection. CONCLUSION: The cyclical pattern of the disease is the main cause of the pertussis epidemic between 2011 and 2014, and decreasing incidence in 2015. Adult vaccination with Tdap was not cost-effective in the 2015 Brazilian scenario