Face à l’évolution technologique rapide des produits, l’innovation incrémentale des nouveaux produits, et la mobilité du personnel le plus expérimenté, les entreprises cherchent à formaliser et à capitaliser leurs expériences et les savoir-faire des acteurs d’entreprise en vue d’une réutilisation ultérieure. Afin de répondre à cette problématique, l’approche du raisonnement à partir de cas conversationnel (RàPCC) est une réponse potentielle à la question de la capitalisation et de la réutilisation des connaissances. Notre recherche s’intéresse aux méthodes permettant de piloter le retour d’expérience (RETEX) appliqué à la résolution de problèmes techniques. Notre méthodologie pour créer un système d’aide au diagnostic des pannes est divisée en quatre phases : la description d’événements, l’élaboration de l’ensemble des solutions apportées aux pannes, la mise en place d’une aide au diagnostic grâce aux arbres de défaillances et la mise en place d’un système informatique. Afin d’extraire les connaissances tacites et les formaliser, nous avons créé des protocoles de décision dans le but d’aider l’expert à résoudre un problème industriel. Nous avons donc proposé une formulation et l’élaboration de cas conversationnels dans le domaine du diagnostic. Ces cas doivent être stockés dans une base de cas. Afin de valider notre proposition méthodologique, nous avons réalisé la phase expérimentale dans une entreprise industrielle de l’Est de la France. Nous proposons finalement une maquette informatique conçue pour l’entreprise. Cette maquette permet de réaliser un diagnostic des pannes en créant des cas dans une base de cas pour une réutilisation ultérieure / Faced with the fast technological development of products, incremental innovation of new products, and the mobility of their most experienced staff, companies are seeking to formalize and capitalize on the experiences and know-how of their personnel in order to reuse them later. To deal with these problems, the conversational case based reasoning (CCBR) approach is a potential answer to the question of capitalization and reuse of knowledge. Our research focuses on methods to manage experience feedback (EF). We are placed in the field of experience feedback applied to technical problem solving. Our methodology for creating aided failure diagnosis systems is divided into four phases: the events description, the development of all solutions to failures, the arrangement of a diagnostic aid through fault trees and setting up a computer system. We based our work on the fault tree approach in order to extract tacit knowledge and its formalization. Our objective was to create decision protocols in order to assist the expert in solving an industrial problem. Therefore, we have proposed a formulation and development of conversational cases in diagnosis. These cases must be memorised in a database of cases. To validate our proposal methodology, we have carried out the experimental phase in an industrial company in eastern France. This experiment allowed us to validate our work and highlight its advantages and limitations. Finally, we propose a computer model designed for the company. This model enables failure diagnosis by creating the case in a case base for later utilization

Cette thèse tire les enseignements de la zone Euro qui représente la phase la plus avancée de l’intégration économique au sein de l’Union Européenne. Cependant, force est de constater que la zone euro affiche des lacunes en termes de mécanismes d’ajustement alternatifs. Ainsi malgré les avancées considérables, cette intégration économique et institutionnelle semble insuffisante pour absorber les chocs asymétriques sur les États. Nous avons utilisé diverses approches (baromètres de convergence, classification par arbre de décision et modèle de Merton) pour évaluer l’efficacité des politiques économiques au sein de l’UEMOA. Nous avons étudié, à partir de données empiriques allant de 1994 à 2015, l’hétérogénéité des principaux agrégats macroéconomiques entre les pays de la zone et leurs évolutions dans le temps. Contrairement aux attentes, des différences existent encore entre les pays. Selon l’objectif de politique macroéconomique mesuré (croissance économique, inflation, chômage), nos résultats révèlent que les changements dans les performances des groupes constitués sont expliqués soit par des migrations entre les groupes, soit par les changements à l’intérieur des groupes. Finalement, nos investigations montrent que l’élargissement à la CEDEAO amplifie ces divergences. Nos résultats montrent enfin une bonne performance de la règle de Taylor comparativement à l’inflation cible depuis 2003. Cette règle serait une "conduite de base" adaptable à la politique de la future banque centrale après avoir levé la difficulté à déterminer les valeurs de référence de l’équation dans ces espaces économiques hétérogènes. / This paper draws lessons from the Eurozone which represents the most advanced stage of economic integration in the European Union. However the alternative adjustment mechanisms in place there prove to be insufficient to absorb asymmetric shocks endured by member states. We used various methods such as convergence barometers, decision tree classification, and Merton model in order to assess the effectiveness of the economic policies in place within the WAEMU . We studied, through empirical data from 1994 to 2015, the heterogeneity of the main macroeconomic aggregates between the countries of the area and it’s evolution over time. Contrary to expectations, discrepancies still exist between countries. In accordance with the goal of macroeconomic policy measured, our results reveal that either the effects of migration between groups, or the changes in performance within groups give an account of the changes in performance inside groups. Our investigations eventually brings to light that the expansion to the ECOWAS amplifies the divergences.Lastly, our results show that the Taylor rule has been well put to use in comparison to targeted inflation since 2003. This rule can be regarded as a "basic rule" adaptable to the policy of the future central bank after having lifted the difficulty in determining the reference values in these heterogeneous economic areas.

Freqüentemente os profissionais da construção naval tomam decisões para selecionar os elementos que devem ser especificados na composição de determinado projeto. Além da experiência e do conhecimento necessários para optar por um caminho adequado, a escolha deve atender eficientemente ao problema proposto e às preferências do projetista. A seleção de componentes do projeto de estruturas flutuantes para exploração de campos de petróleo no mar envolve aspectos objetivos e subjetivos. O trabalho apresenta e aplica alguns métodos de auxílio à tomada de decisão possibilitando ao projetista aprimorar sua sensibilidade. O objetivo da pesquisa é apresentar de forma sumária as duas bases para a decisão sobre o projeto, que são os métodos de apoio e os requisitos que as instalações FPSO devem atender, fornecendo como resultado um procedimento que permitirá aos usuários a melhor escolha dos componentes e aumentar a sensibilidade dos projetistas na seleção entre as possíveis opções (fazer totalmente novo ou aproveitar o existente). O trabalho apresenta uma revisão dos princípios da análise da decisão, informações sobre métodos de apoio à decisão, os dados de entrada do problema proposto, o método de projetos navais, os requisitos básicos para construção de estruturas flutuantes de exploração de petróleo no mar e os requisitos básicos para uma instalação FPSO. Para a solução do problema se aplicaram os métodos de árvore de decisão, para a parte correspondente às decisões sob risco e o método de análise hierárquica AHP para as decisões tomadas sob certeza. / Frequently, naval construction engineers take decisions to select the elements which must specified for the composition of a determined project. Besides the necessary experience and the knowledge to choose a proper way, the option must fulfil efficiently the problem requirements and the preferences of the designer. The choice of components in the design off-shore structures for production in sea oilfields, involves objective and subjective aspects. This work introduces and uses a few methods of decision aids, helping the designer to improve his sensibility. The objective of this research is to present in a simple way two foundations to decide about the project, which are the aid decision methods and the requirements which the FPSO (Floating Production Storage and Offloading System) must fulfil, supplying a procedure that enables the designer to take the best choice of components and to increase his sensibility referring to the selection among the possible options, wich are to make a completely new FPSO or to use an existing one. This work offers a revision of the principles of the decision analysis theory, the data input of the problem, the classic naval design method, the basic requirements to build floating structures to off-shore oil extraction, and the basic requirements for a FPSO installation. To solve the problem the decision tree method, for decision under risk, and the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), for decision under certainty, were applied.

Der Zusammenhang zwischen Dienstleistung und dem zu ihrer Erbringung notwendigen Verkehr stellte in den vergangenen Jahren ein nur wenig diskutiertes und analysiertes Themenfeld dar. Als Teilelement des Wirtschaftsverkehrs, also jener Verkehre, die sich aus den produzierenden, handelnden und dienstleistenden Aktivitäten in einem Raum ergeben und in Ausübung des Berufs und zur Erbringung erwerbswirtschaftlicher Tätigkeiten durchgeführt werden, stellen Verkehre im Kontext der Dienstleistungserstellung eine bedeutende Größe hinsichtlich Verkehrsaufkommen und -leistung dar. Dieser Personenwirtschaftsverkehr, welcher die unterschiedlichen Aspekte des durch Dienstleistungen verursachten Verkehrs zusammengefasst und erklärt, bildet den thematischen Schwerpunkt der vorliegenden Arbeit. Abgeleitet aus den generellen Eigenschaften und Merkmalen von Dienstleistungen wird in der Arbeit theoretisch dargelegt, welche grundlegenden verkehrlichen Schlussfolgerungen aus der notwendigen Interaktion zwischen dem Erbringer einer Dienstleistung und dem Kunden resultieren. Aufbauend auf dem umfangreichen Datensatz des Forschungsprojekts „Dienstleistungsverkehr in industriellen Wertschöpfungsprozessen“ werden inner- und zwischenbetrieblich erbrachte Dienstleistungen, die jeweils zum Einsatz kommende Form der Interaktion und der resultierende Personenwirtschaftsverkehr analysiert. Damit ist es mit den Ergebnissen der Arbeit möglich, Betrieben unterschiedlicher Branchen und Größenklassen nicht nur ein Portfolio an Dienstleistungen zuzuweisen, sondern darüber hinaus diese Dienstleistungen auch hinsichtlich der verkehrlichen Kennwerte zu differenzieren. Die Analysen stellen u. a. sektoral differenzierte Modal Split Werte für betriebliche Wege bereit. Auf dieser Grundlage können insbesondere für Städte und Metropolregionen neue Ansatzpunkt für Maßnahmen und Strategien zur verträglichen Gestaltung des Personenwirtschaftsverkehrs abgeleitet werden. Hier anzusetzen und die bestehenden Potenziale zukünftig zu realisieren, kann einen entscheidenden Beitrag zur Erhaltung der Qualität insbesondere städtischer Verkehrssysteme darstellen. / The interconnection between services and the required transport processes to provide these services has been a poorly addressed and analysed topic. As an element of commercial transport, therefore the traffic generated by professional or business activities, service related transport represents a significant amount of traffic and traffic volume. Service traffic, which refers to the German “Personenwirtschaftsverkehr”, serves as a main category that combines possible characteristics of service related transport. This service traffic is the thematic focus of the presented study. Derived from general qualities and characteristics of services, the study theoretically describes which conclusions for transport processes can be drawn from the interaction between the provider of a service and the customer during the production process and which are necessary. Based on extensive empirical datasets gathered within the research project “Service Traffic” the study covers questions about services internally produced and acquired from external sources just like the specific patterns of interaction during the service production process. With the study’s findings it will become possible to assign a specific service portfolio to companies, independent of economic section or company size. Furthermore a distinction in terms of characteristic transport related values for these services is possible. The results of the analyses provide, inter alia, the modal split for business activities differentiated by economic sectors. Upon this, cities and metropolitan regions may identify new approaches for measures and coherent strategies for an economical and ecologically sound organization of service traffic. To realize these existing optimization potentials in future will hopefully make a decisive contribution to maintain the high quality of urban transport infrastructure.

臺灣近年來常常以發展觀光產業，來促進地方經濟發展，最明顯的政策便屬為臺灣政府於2008年開放陸客來臺以後，帶起許多陸客旅行團來臺旅遊的熱潮。同時在媒體渲染陸客強勁的消費力之下，使旅遊周邊產業都能受惠。但根據交通部觀光局統計資料顯示，陸客來臺人數成長率已大幅下降，但這股陸客來臺風潮卻已悄悄改變了臺灣旅遊業的體質。臺灣的觀光產業應朝向高品質服務業發展，才能同時保有觀光的品質與產值，否則在觀光人次太多的情況下，將影響國人旅遊的品質。 因此本研究利用2014年國人旅遊調查資料，利用決策樹方法根據縣市做分類，分別從旅遊者的背景、旅遊規劃、旅遊內容角度出發，檢視國人於臺灣縣市旅遊的特性與滿意程度，深入探討國人旅遊之型態與品質，藉此提供國內旅遊發展上一些建議，帶動在地旅遊，甚可藉由國民外交的「口碑」向外推廣、創造旅遊需求。

An exploration of the creation and use of farmers' commonly used "rules of thumb" is required to conceptualize farmers' decision making processes. While farmers face complex situations, particularly when subsistence is an issue, they do appear to use simple rules in their decision making. To date inadequate attention has been given to understanding their reasoning processes in creating the rules, so this study traces the origins of farmers' beliefs, and extracts the decisive and dynamic elements in their decision making systems to provide this understanding. The analysis was structured by using a model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). Modifications included recognizing a bargaining process (BP) and other decision stimuli to represent socio-cultural influences and sources of perception, respectively. Two analyses based on the Personal Construct Theory (PCT) and the Ethnographic Decision Tree Modelling (EDTM) were also applied to help elaborate the farmers' cognitive process and actual decision criteria. The method involved interviews in two villages in Lamongan Regency in East Java Province of Indonesia, where the farmers adopted an improved paddy-prawn system ("pandu"). The results highlighted that farmers use rational strategies, and that socio-cultural factors influence decision making. This was represented by interactions between the farmers' perceptions, their bargaining effort, and various background factors. The TPB model revealed that the farmers' perceptions about the potential of "pandu", and the interaction with their "significant others", influenced their intention to adopt "pandu". The farmers appeared to prefer a steady income and familiar practices at the same time as obtaining new information, mainly from their peers. When "pandu" failed to show sufficiently profitable results, most farmers decided to ignore or discontinue "pandu". This became the biggest disincentive to a wide and sustainable adoption. However, the PCT analysis showed that part of this problem also stemmed from the farmers' lack of resources and knowledge. The farmers' restrictive conditions also led them to seek socio-cultural and practical support for their actions. This was highlighted by a bargaining process (BP) that integrated what the farmers had learned, and believed, into their adoption behaviour. The BP also captured the farmers' communication strategies when dealing with "pandu" as its adoption affected resource allocation within the family and required cooperation with neighbours. The PCT and EDTM analyses also confirmed how the BP accommodated different sets of decision criteria to form different adoption behaviours. Such a process indicated the importance of considering the adoption decision and the relevant changes resulting from the farmers' cognition. This provided a more dynamic and realistic description of the farmers' decision-making process than has previously been attempted. Overall, the results suggested that semi-commercial farmers need to know, and confirm, that a new technology is significantly superior to the existing system, and can provide a secure income. The introduction of a new technology should use a participatory approach allowing negotiation, conflict mitigation and the creation of consensus among the relevant parties. This can be supported through better access to knowledge, information and financing. A specific and well-targeted policy intervention may also be needed to accommodate the diversity in the farmers' ways of learning and making decisions. Ways to improve the current analytical approaches are also suggested.

Let G be a finite graph with vertex set V and edge set E. A graph complex on G is an abstract simplicial complex consisting of subsets of E. In particular, we may interpret such a complex as a family of subgraphs of G. The subject of this thesis is the topology of graph complexes, the emphasis being placed on homology, homotopy type, connectivity degree, Cohen-Macaulayness, and Euler characteristic. We are particularly interested in the case that G is the complete graph on V. Monotone graph properties are complexes on such a graph satisfying the additional condition that they are invariant under permutations of V. Some well-studied monotone graph properties that we discuss in this thesis are complexes of matchings, forests, bipartite graphs, disconnected graphs, and not 2-connected graphs. We present new results about several other monotone graph properties, including complexes of not 3-connected graphs and graphs not coverable by p vertices. Imagining the vertices as the corners of a regular polygon, we obtain another important class consisting of those graph complexes that are invariant under the natural action of the dihedral group on this polygon. The most famous example is the associahedron, whose faces are graphs without crossings inside the polygon. Restricting to matchings, forests, or bipartite graphs, we obtain other interesting complexes of noncrossing graphs. We also examine a certain "dihedral" variant of connectivity. The third class to be examined is the class of digraph complexes. Some well-studied examples are complexes of acyclic digraphs and not strongly connected digraphs. We present new results about a few other digraph complexes, including complexes of graded digraphs and non-spanning digraphs. Many of our proofs are based on Robin Forman's discrete version of Morse theory. As a byproduct, this thesis provides a loosely defined toolbox for attacking problems in topological combinatorics via discrete Morse theory. In terms of simplicity and power, arguably the most efficient tool is Forman's divide and conquer approach via decision trees, which we successfully apply to a large number of graph and digraph complexes. / QC 20100622

所謂資料採礦是指『從大量資料或大型資料庫中由電腦自動選取一些重要的、潛在有用的資料類型或知識』。目前資料採礦所包含的各種技術已被廣泛的應用在許多領域上，本研究即要利用資料採礦的技術從大量的客戶交易資料中採掘出客戶與商品之間的關聯性知識，並將之應用未來客戶銷售活動。 資料採礦於流通業多為B2C之應用，本研究則嘗試將資料採礦分析應用於B2B之交易分析，並以個案公司與其客戶之實際銷售資料為本研究之資料來源，本研究利用Clementine電腦軟體為資料採礦工具，並依分析目的之不同，運用該軟體提供之各項採礦模組分別對個案公司之交易資料進行分析，如： *.使用關聯網〈web〉的方式，針對個案資料，尋找商品銷售間的強弱關係，挑出銷售關聯性較高的商品組合，並且利用C5.0決策樹演算法，尋找該交易行為的對象之特性為何。 *.使用Apriori演算法，針對BZ(商圈)、DL(經銷商)、SP(門市)等不同客戶類型在不同的資料期間，找出資料中所有商品之關聯規則。 *.利用Apriori演算法，利用前半年資料，找出IFAKMB(主機板)、IFDDLC(LCD監視器)、IFCOCP(中央處理器)等類別商品的購買規則，並分別以後半年的資料進行驗證，探究此規則之可行性。 接著針對各項資料採礦結果，就個案公司之實際狀況進行解讀，同時更重要的是探討該分析結果應用於銷售實務上之可行性，如：產品銷售規則，行銷策略、促銷戰術之擬定等。最後並以本研究之結果及經驗，對個案公司提出資訊管理系統資料補強之建議及資料採礦於未來可再延伸探討之應用方向。

Syftet med studien har varit att undersöka om det är möjligt att tillämpa en beslutsmodell för att lösa ett problem avseende anbudsstrategi vid offentlig upphandling. När ett företag har en kund som omfattas av lagen om offentlig upphandling gäller särskilda regler vid upphandlingar. För ett företag är det viktigt att känna till dessa regler vid inlämning av anbud. Detta är dock oftast inte tillräckligt för att vinna en upphandling, eftersom det då också gäller att deras produkts jämförelsepris är lägre än konkurrenternas. En beslutsmodell, baserad på data från tidigare upphandlingar, har tagits fram för att kunna underbygga ett verktyg gällande anbudsstrategi. Beslutsmodellen är uppbyggd av diverse teorier som beslutsmatris, beslutsträd, lognormal fördelning och förväntat monetärt värde. Tillvägagångssättet har bestått av insamling av information och data via intervjuer, samt andra källor såsom litteratur, artiklar, uppsatser och upphandlingar, där metoden design science har använts. Utifrån en generell beslutsmatris och ett beslutsträd samt beräkningar har beslutsmodellen kunnat tas fram. Beslutsmodellen är i första hand avsedd för att underbygga ett verktyg för företag som är leverantör av eldrivna rullstolar men skulle även kunna appliceras i andra typer av upphandlingar. Beslutsmodellen kan ge stöd till ett verktyg som i sin tur skulle kunna användas av beslutsfattare. Beslutsfattarna får dock inte endast utgå från dess information, som är baserad på tidigare upphandlingar, utan bör också analysera konkurrenternas nutidssituation. Nyckelord: Beslutsmodell, offentlig upphandling, anbudspris, jämförelsepris, beslutsfattare, beslutsmatris, beslutsträd, lognormal fördelning, förväntat monetärt värde / The aim of the study has been to investigate if it is possible to apply a decision model when solving a problem with bidding strategies in public procurement. When a company has costumers comprehended by the laws in public procurement, there are certain rules involved. For a company it is important to be aware about these rules, when setting their bids. Though this is often not enough for a winning procurement, because of the fact that the products comparison prices need to be lower than the competitors'. A decision model, based on data from earlier procurements, has been developed to reinforce a tool with bidding strategies. The decision model is composed by various theories, like decision matrix, decision tree, lognormal distribution and expected monetary value. The procedure through the study has contained data and information acquisition via interviews and other references like literature, articles, thesis and procurements. Based on a general decision matrix and a decision tree, as with calculations, the decision model has been generated. The decision model is mainly designed to reinforce a tool for companies supplying electric wheelchairs to costumers but could also be applicable in other types of procurements. The decision model could be a support when constructing a tool, which consequently could be used by decision makers. The decision makers can however not only adopt the ideas based on earlier procurements. They also need to analyse the competitors’ situations in present time. Keywords: Decision model, public procurement, bidding prices, comparison prices, decision maker, decision matrix, decision tree, lognormal distribution, expected monetary value

Given the overall increase in the availability of computational resources, and the importance of forecasting the future, it should come as no surprise that prediction is considered to be one of the most compelling and challenging problems for both academia and industry in the world of data analytics. But how is prediction done, what factors make it easier or harder to do, how accurate can we expect the results to be, and can we harness the available computational resources in meaningful ways? With efforts ranging from those designed to save lives in the moments before a near field tsunami to others attempting to predict the performance of Major League Baseball players, future generations need to have realistic expectations about prediction methods and analytics. This thesis takes a broad look at the problem, including motivation, methodology, accuracy, and infrastructure. In particular, a careful study involving experiments in regression, the prediction of continuous, numerical values, and classification, the assignment of a class to each sample, is provided. The results and conclusions of these experiments cover only the included data sets and the applied algorithms as implemented by the Python library. The evaluation includes accuracy and running time of different algorithms across several data sets to establish tradeoffs between the approaches, and determine the impact of variations in the size of the data sets involved. As scalability is a key characteristic required to meet the needs of future prediction problems, a discussion of some of the challenges associated with parallelization is included. / Graduate / 0984 / erickson@uvic.ca