A imprevisibilidade dos acontecimentos que se transformarão em notícia e a necessidade de cumprir um horário de fechamento diário tornam o trabalho em redação de jornal uma atividade sob a constante pressão de fatores internos e externos. Premidos pelo tempo, a todo instante editores precisam decidir rapidamente se apostam ou não em um fato como notícia, que grau de complexidade darão à pauta, se o repórter vai para a rua buscar informações, quantas e quais pessoas devem ser ouvidas, qual espaço o assunto irá ocupar na edição. E, principalmente, como garantir que o resultado dessas decisões seja uma informação de qualidade, correta, imparcial e com credibilidade. Neste contexto, esta dissertação tem a finalidade de contribuir para a identificação de quais fatores afetam a produção de uma notícia, impactando na qualidade da informação que chega ao leitor. A partir de uma abordagem transdisciplinar, com conceitos teóricos das áreas de Comunicação, Gestão de Processos e Qualidade da Informação, se constituiu um estudo de caso fundamentado por meio de pesquisa de natureza aplicada. Inicialmente, foi realizado um mapeamento do processo em uma Redação de jornal impresso, buscando identificar fluxos de produção e pontos críticos. Em um segundo momento, foram ouvidos sete editores que atuam na empresa, utilizando o Método Delphi, com o objetivo de entender quais são as principais interferências no dia a dia da Redação e como elas afetam o texto jornalístico. Ao analisar o impacto do tempo na produção do jornal, os entrevistados reconhecem prejuízos especialmente na etapa de apuração dos fatos, quando o repórter coleta informações e realiza entrevistas. Também destacam a importância da etapa de checagem de dados. O resultado são notícias publicadas sem contextualização, com imprecisão ou erro nas informações e textos inconsistentes. Em relação à rotina dos repórteres, ficou evidenciado que as maiores dificuldades estão em obter um ângulo diferente da notícia e ter acesso a fontes e dados dentro do prazo disponível. Entender os fatores intervenientes na produção da notícia e antecipar-se a eles permite garantir aos jornalistas elaborarem com mais frequência a notícia ideal, definida pelos entrevistados como aquela que tem contextualização, pluralidade, interpretação e criatividade. / The unpredictability of events that will be converted into news, and the need to comply with daily deadlines turn the newspaper newsroom work into an activity under constant pressure by internal and external factors. At all times, editors have to make several quick decisions, such as whether they bet on a given fact as news, whether the reporter will gather information in the streets or contact the sources by telephone, the best approach for the event, how many and what sort of people must be heard, where to collect data, how to write clearly and attractively for the reader. Moreover, how to guarantee that such decisions will result in accurate, unbiased and reliable information. Within this context, this thesis aims at contributing to the identification of internal and external factors that affect news production, and impact the quality of information that reaches the reader. Resting on a transdisciplinary approach, and employing theoretical concepts from the Communication, Process Management, and Information Quality areas, a case study was built based on applied research. Firstly, the process in a print newspaper newsroom was mapped seeking to identify production flows and critical points. In a second moment, by using Delphi Method seven editors who work in the company were heard with the objective to understand the overriding interferences in the newsroom daily activities, and how they affect the journalistic text. When analyzing the impact of time on newspaper production, the interviewees recognize harmful effects specially during the stage of fact ascertainment, when the reporter collects information and conducts interviews. The editors also highlight the significance of the data cheking stage. The outcome will be non-contextualized news, innacurate or mistaken information and text inconsistency. Regarding the reporters routine, it is evident that the biggest difficulties are in obtaining a different angle from a given piece of news, and gaining access to sources and data within the available time span. Understanding the intervening factors of news production, and being ahead of them might assure to journalists the development of the ideal piece of news more often, which according to the interviewees is that one containing contextualization, plurality, interpretation and creativity.

O presente estudo busca fornecer subsídios para a evolução da qualidade de seleção da fiscalização da Compensação Financeira da Exploração Mineral (CFEM) visando a propiciar um aumento na recuperação de créditos em cada fiscalização. Pretende-se mensurar os parâmetros que possam ser utilizados na definição da priorização de empresas a serem auditadas in loco, com a construção, através de pesquisa exploratória por meio de análise documental e entrevistas com especialistas do setor da matriz de priorização. Com esta pesquisa, espera-se contribuir na otimização da arrecadação das receitas públicas, assim como melhorar os resultados através do aumento da eficácia das fiscalizações, ou seja, aumentando o grau de acerto das fiscalizações e reduzindo o número de fiscalizações sem resultado. A Auditoria Fiscal realizada pelo DNPM em empresas de mineração pode ser dividida nas seguintes etapas: Seleção da empresa; Observação dos Processos Operacionais da Empresa; Inspeção da Documentação Contábil, Fiscal e Gerencial; Relatório de Fiscalização; Lavratura da Notificação Fiscal de Lançamento de Débitos para Pagamento (NFLPD). Nesta pesquisa, foram utilizados métodos primários (entrevistas com especialistas do setor) e secundários de pesquisa como a revisão da literatura. O método Delphi foi utilizado para coletar a opinião dos especialistas do setor. Quanto à técnica, utilizou-se a matriz GUT (Gravidade, Urgência, Tendência) que tem como objetivo estabelecer as prioridades das ações entre diversas alternativas, em que são atribuídos graus de importância nos valores de 1 a 5 para cada um dos problemas que compõe essa matriz. Na fase de entrevistas, identificou-se o nível de consenso e a prioridade dos critérios para seleção de empresas para fins de auditoria da CFEM. Concluiu-se que a adoção de critérios para direcionamento das auditorias externas da CFEM é mais eficiente do que a seleção aleatória realizada atualmente na SUP/DNPM/RS. Propõe-se que essa conclusão seja considerada em futuros planejamentos na SUP/DNPM/RS, para produzir melhorias em termos de arrecadação da CFEM e para tornar o processo de seleção eficiente. / The present study seeks to provide subsidies for the evolution of the selection quality of the Financial Compensation for Mineral Exploration (FCME) supervision in order to provide an increase in the recovery of credits in each inspection. It is intended to measure the parameters that can be used to define the prioritization of companies to be audited in loco, with the construction, through exploratory research through documentary analysis and interviews with specialists of the sector of the prioritization matrix. With this research, we hope to contribute to the optimization of the collection of public revenues, as well as to improve the results by increasing the efficiency of the inspections, that is, increasing the degree of correctness of the inspections and reducing the number of inspections without result. The Fiscal Audit carried out by DNPM in mining companies can be divided into the following stages: Company selection; Observation of the Company's Operating Processes; Inspection of Accounting, Tax and Management Documentation; Inspection Report; Drawing up of the Tax Notification of Debits for Payment (TNDP). In this research, primary (interviews with industry experts) and secondary research methods were used as the literature review. The Delphi method was used to gather the opinion of industry experts. As for the technique, the GUT (Severity, Urgency, Tendency) matrix was used to establish the priorities of the actions among several alternatives, in which degrees of importance are assigned in the values from 1 to 5 for each of the problems that compose this matrix. In the interview phase, the level of consensus and the priority of the criteria for company selection for FCME audit purposes were identified. It was concluded that the adoption of criteria to guide FCME's external audits is more efficient than the current random selection performed at SUP/DNPM/RS. It is proposed that this conclusion be considered in future SUP/DNPM/RS planning to produce improvements in terms of FCME collection and to make the selection process efficient.

Orientador: Mara de Andrade Marinho / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Agrícola / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-18T01:24:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Lourenco_LeonardoSenede_D.pdf: 3534981 bytes, checksum: 56657d118945f022f1865ecb7f5ee251 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011 / Resumo: Erosão é um tema complexo que envolve aspectos físicos, ambientais, econômicos, sociais e políticos. Nos últimos 100 anos de historia, o principal enfoque da pesquisa em erosão esteve centrado principalmente nos aspectos físicos e só mais recentemente o foco se ampliou, incluindo os aspectos ambientais, econômicos e sociais. Partindo do pressuposto de que é possível o uso conjugado de métodos de consulta Ad-Hoc e de Análise Multicriterial, o presente trabalho teve por objetivo geral empregar essa abordagem no desenvolvimento de uma proposição metodológica para avaliação da suscetibilidade dos solos à erosão. Um objetivo específico foi utilizar dados de rotina de perfis de solos disponíveis nos relatórios dos levantamentos pedológicos. Para desenvolvimento de função classificatória da suscetibilidade à erosão, foram aplicados os métodos multicriteriais referidos por ELECTRE II, CP e CGT, considerando 4 cenários de pesos: media geométrica, máximo, mínimo e moda. Para desenvolvimento de função agregativa e de um indicador de suscetibilidade à erosão (Ise), foi utilizado o método MAVT via ajustes de funções de valores, que foram aplicadas aos dados secundários de solos. Os resultados da aplicação dos métodos ELECTRE II, CP e CGT foram convergentes, com uma correlação média de 0,854, destacando-se a ordem dos NEOSSOLOS (maior suscetibilidade) e a dos ORGANOSSOLOS (menor suscetibilidade). O indicador de suscetibilidade à erosão qualificou um PLINTOSSOLO PETRICO como sendo o mais suscetível (Ise= 57,4%) e um ORGANOSSOLO HAPLICO como sendo o menos suscetível à erosão (Ise= 34,5%). Conclui-se que a metodologia desenvolvida permitiu avaliar a suscetibilidade do solo à erosão sob diferentes aspectos (classificador e indicador de suscetibilidade) e níveis de generalização taxonômica, com uso de dados secundários / Abstract: Erosion is a complex theme which involves physical, environmental, social, and political aspects. For the last 100 years, the central goal of the research in this area was the physical aspects of soil erosion, and only more recently this focus has been distended to include the environmental, economical and social aspects. From the assumption that is possible to combine Ad-Hoc methods with Multicriterial Analysis, this work intended to employ that approach to develop a methodology for evaluating the soil susceptibility to erosion. A specific purpose was to use legacy data available on soil surveys reports. To develop a classificatory function of the soil susceptibility to erosion, the ELECTRE II, CP e CGT multicriterials methods were applied considering four scenarios: geometrical average, maximum, minimum, and mode. To develop an aggregative function and an indicator of soil erosion susceptibility (Ise), it was employed the MAVT method via adjusting values functions, which were applied to the legacy soils data. The results acquired from the application of the ELECTRE II, CP and CGT methods were convergent, with an average correlation of 0,854, stressing NEOSSOLOS (major susceptibility) and ORGANOSSOLOS (minor susceptibility). The indicator of soil erosion susceptibility qualified a PLINTOSSOLO PETRICO as being the most susceptible (Ise= 57,4%) and an ORGANOSSOLO HAPLICO as being the least susceptible (Ise= 34,5%). In conclusion, the developed methodology allowed to evaluate soil susceptibility to erosion in relation to different aspects (classificatory and susceptibility indicator) and levels of taxonomic generalization, with use of legacy data / Doutorado / Agua e Solo / Doutor em Engenharia Agrícola

A necessidade crescente de atividades de manutenção em edificações habitadas, e sua inerente complexidade, tornam a adoção de métodos de gestão de extrema importância para a realização de obras com desempenho técnico e operacional eficientes. Assim, a presente pesquisa discute proposta de método para gestão de obras de manutenção de revestimentos de fachada, concebido em decorrência da necessidade de consolidação de técnicas eficientes para condução desse tipo de atividade. A pesquisa contempla uma fase inicial exploratória que aborda aspectos conceituais fundamentais e descreve relatos de casos acompanhados pelo autor em que as técnicas de gestão foram adotadas de forma não sistêmica, e cuja análise crítica gerou informações importantes para a elaboração da proposta. Em seguida o trabalho mostra a proposição inicial do método, elaborada a partir das discussões relatadas posteriormente na bibliografia e nas considerações oriundas da fase inicial exploratória. Para avaliação da proposta foi realizada uma validação interna de conteúdo, a partir de pesquisas orientadas com especialistas escolhidos mediante critérios de seleção pré-definidos, utilizando método Delphi. Como atividade complementar, foi ainda discutida a eficiência das ações propostas por meio de um estudo de caso prático. As respostas obtidas em ambos os casos indicaram a adequação das ações propostas, o que possibilitou a apresentação do método de gestão final consolidado, considerado cientificamente eficiente. / The increasing need for inherently complex maintenance activities in inhabited buildings makes the adoption of management methods a very important tool for the execution of technically and operationally efficient projects. This research presents the proposal of a method for the management of façade covering maintenance construction projects, conceived as a result of the need for the consolidation of efficient techniques to conduct this type of activity. The research starts with an exploratory phase that addresses fundamental conceptual aspects and describes cases where management techniques were not formally adopted. This critical analysis generated important information for the elaboration of the method. Then the work presents the initial proposal of the method, devised from the discussions subsequently reported in the literature and in the considerations from the initial exploratory phase. For the evaluation of the proposal, an internal validation of content was carried out by means of a guided poll with specialists chosen through pre defined selection criteria using the Delphi Method. As a complementary activity, a practical case study was done in order to assess the efficiency of the method. The feedback obtained in both cases indicated the appropriateness of the proposed actions, allowing the presentation of the final management method, considered to be scientifically efficient.

Orientador: Wagner dos Santos Oliveira / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Química / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-20T20:48:08Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FranchinideAlmeida_CarlaCarolinaCaliani_M.pdf: 9851478 bytes, checksum: cba3d3bd5a597c89f24fc14ad1d28c25 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012 / Resumo: O desenvolvimento e a aplicação de novas propriedades de materiais e de novos materiais propriamente ditos, tem sido um grande objetivo dos pesquisadores. Estamos em uma etapa do conhecimento científico-tecnológico onde a nanotecnologia, em particular, está se tornando presente em todas as áreas da ciência e da tecnologia. Desta forma, os pesquisadores estão investigando maneiras de recorrerem à nanotecnologia em alta escala, determinando suas características a fim de utilizá-las adequadamente, proporcionando novos tipos de materiais. Uma das áreas de P&D em nanotecnologia, importantes nas atividades acadêmicas e industriais, está voltada para os materiais poliméricos, em nanocompósitos. Este trabalho teve como principal finalidade conhecer como a nanotecnologia se faz presente nos materiais poliméricos, recorrendo aos pesquisadores/especialistas na área, e investigar quais as possibilidades futuras de utilização destes novos materiais junto à sociedade como um todo, por meio da de prospecção tecnológica. Todavia, para uma prospecção adequada, neste caso determinado, é necessário a utilização de ferramentas próprias, para se obter uma resposta cujas possibilidades sejam próximas às reais. Recorreu-se aqui, à Metodologia Delphi, que utiliza conhecimento de especialistas em áreas de específicas, afim de obter dados através de questionários capazes de representar cenários futuros, num âmbito de probabilidades subjetivas, cujas respostas possam ser tratadas por métodos matemáticos / Abstract: The development and the applications of new properties of already known materials and new materials properly said, has been researchers' main objective. We are in a phase of scientific and technological knowledge where the nanotechnology is becoming present in all science and technology fields. Thus, the researchers are investigating ways to resort to the nanotechnology on a large scale, determining its characteristics in order to use them properly, providing new types of materials. One of the R&D fields in nanotechnology is focused on polymeric materials, in nanocomposites, which are present in academic and industrial activities. This study had as main objective to acquire the knowledge of how the nanotechnology is present in polymeric materials, resorting to researchers/ specialists in the field, to know which are the future possibilities of these new materials in the society, as a whole, through technological prospection. However, in order to obtain a prospection of the future in this determined case, it is necessary to use the appropriate tools, in order to obtain an answer which possibilities are close to the real ones. It was used the Delphi Method, which uses the specialists' knowledge in a specific area, in order to obtain data through questionnaires that may represent future scenarios, in an ambit of subjective probabilities, whose answers can be treated by mathematical methods / Mestrado / Ciencia e Tecnologia de Materiais / Mestra em Engenharia Química

Ce travail est une contribution au renforcement des capacités de recherche et de l'identification des stratégies et des perspectives afin de promouvoir une meilleure recherche en santé bucco-dentaire en Afrique grâce à la production de l'avis d'un panel d'experts lors d'une consultation Delphi. Ceci d'autant plus que les systèmes de santé bucco-dentaire et les connaissances scientifiques évoluent rapidement. Le continent africain est confronté à de nombreux défis parmi lesquels figurent le fardeau des maladies bucco-dentaires et les besoins élevés en soins des populations. Afin de satisfaire la demande en soins et de poser des actions de santé publique efficaces, les décideurs ont besoin d'outils, de capacités et d'informations pour évaluer et suivre les besoins de santé, choisir des stratégies d'intervention, des options politiques appropriées pour la conception de leurs propres stratégies en vue améliorer la performance des systèmes de soins bucco-dentaires. Dans ce contexte, il est nécessaire de concevoir une approche cohérente de la politique de santé bucco-dentaire dans la Région africaine ce qui implique une meilleure connaissance de la situation. Car l'avancement de l'Afrique est tributaire de sa capacité à générer, à adapter et à utiliser des connaissances scientifiques pour satisfaire aux besoins locaux en matière de santé et de développement. C'est pourquoi il y a un besoin de former la prochaine génération de scientifiques africains. Les universités doivent promouvoir, soutenir la recherche ainsi que la formation de sorte que les étudiants puissent participer aux recherches et bénéficier de l'enseignement de chercheur tout au long de leurs formations. La collecte de données sur la santé bucco-dentaire est par conséquent essentielle pour obtenir une vision précise de la situation en Afrique et ainsi mesurer les progrès réalisés. L'objectif de ce travail de recherche est de produire l'avis d'un panel d'experts sur différents items lors d'une consultation Delphi à deux phases. Ceci dans l'optique d'évaluer l'état actuel de la recherche, d'identifier les stratégies afin de promouvoir une meilleure recherche en santé bucco-dentaire en Afrique et de dégager des perspectives pour son progrès. Les analyses soulignent les priorités aux actions à privilégier tout en impliquant un certain nombre de recommandations pour renforcer et promouvoir les capacités de la recherche en santé bucco-dentaire. En fin de compte la solution qui s'imposerait serait de favoriser et d'optimiser la culture de la recherche dans les programmes nationaux de santé bucco-dentaire et d'assurer une large diffusion des résultats de la recherche pour les utiliser à des fins de planification / This work is a contribution to the strengthening of research capacity and the identification of strategies and opportunities to promote better research in oral health in Africa through the filing of the notice of a panel of experts at a Delphi consultation. This especially as systems oral health and scientific knowledge evolves rapidly. However, the African continent is facing many challenges, including the burden of oral diseases and the needs of populations that are huge. To meet these challenges care and ask actions effective public health policy makers need tools, skills and information to assess and monitor health needs, choose intervention strategies, policy options appropriate for the design of their own circumstances and improve system performance oral care. In this context, it is necessary to develop a coherent policy approach to oral health in the African Region, but this implies a better knowledge of the situation. For the advancement of Africa depends on its ability to generate, adapt and use scientific knowledge to meet local needs in health and development. That is why there is an urgent need to build the next generation of African scientists. Universities should promote and support research and training so that students are exposed to research and be taught by researchers throughout their courses. The collection of data on oral health is essential to get an accurate picture of the situation in Africa and to measure progress. Thus the objective of this research is to produce the opinion of a panel of experts on various items at a Delphi consultation two phases. In order to assess the current state of research, identify strategies to promote better research in oral health in Africa and prospects for its development. Analyzes give priorities to focus on the actions and involve a number of recommendations to strengthen and promote the capacity of research in oral health. Ultimately, we must promote a culture of research in national programs of oral health, ensure wide dissemination of research results and use them for planning purposes

Aims: Exercise and physical activity have been found to be beneficial in managing disabilities caused by multiple sclerosis (MS). Despite the known benefits, people with MS (pwMS) are inactive. Research has focused on structured exercise programmes, rarely considering a broader range of activities, which pwMS integrate into everyday life. The aims of this study were to gain in-depth understanding of the priorities and meanings of exercise and physical activity from the perspective of pwMS and to explore how these might inform clinical practice. Methods: a mixed methods approach using three interconnected studies was adopted: Study 1: A four-round Delphi questionnaire scoped and determined consensus of priorities for exercise and physical activity and the reasons why pwMS (n=101) engaged in these activities. Content and statistical analyses were utilised. Study 2: Sixteen face-to-face, semi-structured interviews were conducted with pwMS to explore the meanings ascribed to exercise and physical activity in relation to the Delphi study. Study 3: Three focus groups involving 14 physiotherapists explored perceptions about exercise and physical activity. Data were analysed for studies 2 and 3 using Framework Analysis and themes developed. Results: outcome from each phase 1. Study 1 revealed that the prioritised exercise and physical activity practices and the reasons why pwMS (n=70) undertook these activities were diverse. Consensus was found for the exercise and physical activity practices (W=0.744, p < 0.0001) and the reasons why pwMS engaged in these activities (W=0.723, p < 0.0001). 2. Study 2 demonstrated that the meanings pwMS ascribed to exercise and physical activity was beyond ‘movement’ reflecting how they lived with a variable and progressive condition. Contextual factors, specifically personal factors were dominant influences. 3. Study 3 highlighted that physiotherapists shared similar views in some aspects to pwMS, however physiotherapists perceptions of exercise and physical activity were predominately influenced by their theoretical knowledge. Conclusion: The priorities and meanings ascribed to exercise and physical activity were ‘a matter of perspective’ and context driven. Understanding the strategies used by pwMS for prioritisation might help clinicians support pwMS more effectively in their decision making about exercise and physical activity. Taking this approach creates the opportunity to deliver a more focused patient-centred approach in the management of MS. Recommendations for clinical practice and further research were identified.

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD / This study aimed to explore how children construct and assign meaning to the 'self' within two urban impoverished communities in the Western Cape, South Africa. Within this process the study aimed to explore how these constructions and meaning assignations were manifested within children's discourses. Additionally, the study aimed to explore the implications of the children's perspectives on developing intervention programmes for the promotion of a healthy self-concept. The study was conducted through three sequential phases; (1) systematic review, (2) child participation, and (3) intervention programme development. Phase one: the systematic review, aimed to systematically review academic literature focused on how children construct and assign meaning to the 'self.' An article search and appraisal yielded 38 articles that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-synthesis was used to analyse the findings. Six central thematic categories emerged as the key influences on children's constructions of the self. These include multidimensionality, discursive practices, socio-environmental conditions, oppression & marginalisation, culture, and social support. Phase two: child participation, consisted of two separate studies. The first study utilized a child participation framework to explore children's discursive constructions of and meanings assigned to the 'self' within two urban communities of the Western Cape, South Africa. Eight focus group discussions were conducted amongst fifty-four children between the ages of 9 to 12. Thematic and discourse analysis were used to analyse the findings. The themes of childhood, social connectedness, and children's spaces were identified to have a vital influence on children's self-concept. Four underlying discourses emerged within the themes as central to the participant's self-constructions. These included; (1) 'forfeited childhood,' (2) 'vulnerability and helplessness,' (3) 'preserving the integrity of the self,' and (4) 'opportunities for escape.' The sequential study aimed to explore how children construct and assign meaning to the 'self' within two urban communities of the Western Cape in South Africa through the use of visual methods. The data collection methods included Photovoice and community maps with 54 participants between the ages of 9 to 12. Feelings of safety, social connectedness, and children's spaces all played a central role in the way in which the participants constructed and assigned meaning to the 'self.' Phase three: Children's programme implications, consisted of a study which aimed to explore children's perceptions of the nature and content of intervention programmes aimed at improving children's self-concept within two impoverished communities of the Western Cape, South Africa. The Delphi technique was followed with a group of ten children between the ages of 10 and 12 years who were considered to be the experts on matters affecting their lives. The participants identified the factors which influence children's self-concept to include; childhood reality, feelings, and relationships. The participants' suggestions for intervention programmes included a focus on safety, social support, opportunities for learning and for play, and basic needs. The study elucidated the value in using participatory methods with children, especially the use of the Delphi method for eliciting children's perspectives for interventions aimed at improving matters related to their well-being. / The Rotary International Foundation

Decision makers have long relied on experts to inform their decision making. Expert judgment analysis is a way to elicit and combine the opinions of a group of experts to facilitate decision making. The use of expert judgment is most appropriate when there is a lack of data for obtaining reasonable statistical results. The experts are asked for advice by one or more decision makers who face a specific real decision problem. The decision makers are outside the group of experts and are jointly responsible and accountable for the decision and committed to finding solutions that everyone can live with. The emphasis is on the decision makers learning from the experts. The focus of this thesis is an overview and comparison of the various elicitation and combination methods available. These include the traditional committee method, the Delphi method, the paired comparisons method, the negative exponential model, Cooke’s classical model, the histogram technique, using the Dirichlet distribution in the case of a set of uncertain proportions which must sum to one, and the employment of overfitting. The supra Bayes approach, the determination of weights for the experts, and combining the opinions of experts where each opinion is associated with a confidence level that represents the expert’s conviction of his own judgment are also considered.

O presente estudo teve como objetivo desenvolver um modelo de habilidades técnicas do ataque da posição quatro e por meio do modelo, analisar o comportamento do ataque da posição quatro na categoria infanto-juvenil masculina. Para o primeiro objetivo, utilizou-se do método delphi, entrevistando-se em dois momentos distintos (1ª e 2ª etapas) 14 treinadores das seleções brasileiras de voleibol masculina e feminina. Enquanto que na primeira etapa foi delineada a estrutura do modelo, na segunda, foi possível elaborar o modelo propriamente dito a partir do nível esperado de consenso. Os resultados demonstraram que, para as onze situações de bloqueio, cento e setenta e duas habilidades técnicas foram relacionadas pelos treinadores, entre as quais, somente quatro (SBT1-I, SBT1-J, SBT3-A e SBT3-S) não alcançaram o critério de consenso estabelecido (média, moda, mediana igual ou superior a 4.0 e desvio padrão igual ou inferior a 0,65). Para o segundo objetivo, foram observados doze jogos em campeonatos mundiais dos anos 2005 e 2007, nos quais foram analisados valores de freqüência de ocorrência e eficácia. Os resultados mostraram maiores ocorrências nas situações de bloqueios duplos seguidas dos bloqueios simples e triplos. Quanto às habilidades técnicas, a corrida de aproximação em diagonal foi a mais utilizada pelos atacantes com opção de ataque direto. As habilidades com ataque explorando o bloqueio ocorreram com maior freqüência frente aos bloqueios duplos e triplos compactos. A análise de correlação de Spearman detectou baixo nível de associação entre freqüência de ocorrência e eficácia. Contudo, a análise de regressão logística (binária e multinomial) entre as habilidades mais freqüentes permitiu verificar que a SBD1-A foi a situação/habilidade que mais ocorreu, no entanto, com menores chances de sucesso entre a maioria das situações/habilidades investigadas. As habilidades técnicas empregadas nas situações de bloqueio simples obtiveram maiores chances de sucesso que as habilidades utilizadas nos bloqueios duplos. Os resultados destacaram o aspecto situacional do ataque, o qual revelou necessidade de aplicação de habilidades técnicas específicas em determinadas estruturas de bloqueio para se obter o sucesso / The objective of this study was to develop a model for attack technical skills in zone four and to analyze the performance of young players through this model. In the first case, through the delphi method and in two distinct moments (1st and 2nd phases), fourteen coaches of the Brazilian male and female teams were interviewed. The structure of the model was designed in the first phase and, by means of consensus, the model itself was eventually designed in the second phase. Results evidenced that 170 attack technical skills were reported by the coaches in eleven block situations, and only four (SBT1-I, SBT1-J, SBT3-A e SBT3-S) did not reach the consensus level (mean, mode, median equal or above 4.0 and standard deviation 0,65). In the second case, twelve games were analyzed during the world championships in years 2005 and 2007 in the frequency and efficacy of actions. The results from the analysis of attack performances from zone four during the world championships showed a larger number in double blocks followed by simple and triple blocks. As for technical skills, the type of run with diagonal approach was the most used by attack players with the option of direct attack. Techniques where attack explores blocking were most common in compact double and triple blocks. The Spearman correlation analysis showed no relation between frequency and efficacy. However, a logistic regression analysis (binary and multinomial) between the most frequent techniques evidenced that SBD1-A block/skill situation was the most frequent but least likely to success. Technical skills in simple block situations were more likely to be successful than those in double blocks. The results also highlighted the situational aspect of attack that requires specific technical skills for certain block structures to be successful