本研究係探討在自願性揭露的情況下，公司盈餘預測準確度會受那些因素的影響？對國內外相關文獻及我國股市資訊環境進行探討後，提出預測期間長短、公司規模大小、盈餘變異性、市場風險、行業別、上市期間長短、自有資本比、綜合槓桿效果、揭露次數多寡、公告媒體別、揭露後累積異常報酬、上市類別、高估低估、預測階段以及年度別等可能影響準確度之因素，利用迴歸分析，以橫斷面(cross-sectional design)之設計方法，來探討各自變數與因變數（盈餘預測準確度）間之關係。 　　依理論判斷所制定之選樣標準，本研究以117家上市公司對於民國78年度至83年度之盈餘預測資料，共941個觀察值為研究樣本。經嚴格理論建立與統計分析后，本研究得出以下的結論： 　　一、預測期間愈短、管理當局盈餘預測準確度愈高。 　　二、公司規模愈大，管理當局盈餘預測準確度愈高。 　　三、市場風險愈低，管理當局盈餘預準確度愈高。 　　四、行業別與預測準確度具有關係。 　　五、自有資本比愈高，管理當局盈餘預測準確度愈高。 　　六、揭露次數愈多與管理當局盈餘預測準確度具有關係。 　　七、媒體別與預測準確度具有關係。 　　八、上市第一類股，預測準確度較高。 　　九、預測階段與預測準確度具有關係。

In the first essay titled "The Information Role of Analysts' Contrarian Revisions," I study a special group of revisions: contrarian revisions, defined as recommendation changes that are inconsistent with sizable stock price movements during the past week. I find that contrarian revisions are relatively more informative than trending revisions. In particular, contrarian revisions are associated with a both statistically and economically larger post-announcement drift. I also find contrarian downgrades are less likely to be issued by all-star analysts and analysts with more experience. After implementation of Regulation RD, the market reaction to contrarian revisions issued by all-stars significantly decreases, indicating private information contained in contrarian recommendations has declined. Overall, our results suggest analyst recommendations are important information sources for market participants. In the second essay titled "Market Reaction to Earnings When Investors Disagree," I investigate how the divergence of opinions between individual and institutional investors affects stock price movements around public news events, specifically earnings announcements. I use a discrete static market equilibrium model to illustrate that divergence of investors' opinions has a significant impact on stock price movements around earnings announcements. Specifically, the divergence of opinion has a negative relation with the immediate market reaction but a positive relation with the subsequent stock price drift. I also investigate trading volume around earnings announcements to explore how traders respond to changes in the divergence of investors' opinions. Empirical evidence supports the model implications and indicates announcement trading volume decreases inversely to the divergence of opinions.

本研究旨在探討我國一般產業之上市公司，其分析師盈餘預測與管理當局盈餘預測間之差異，並且檢視在資本市場中是否具有抑制公司經理人員任意發佈預測之機制。除此之外，亦檢測市場達成共識之程度是否為管理者盈餘管理之誘因，以及其盈餘管理的程度與方向。 研究樣本取自我國上市公司一般產業之財務預測年資料與實際經營結果財務年資料，研究期間涵蓋自民國85年至88年止。 實證結果發現管理當局不論是對市場傳遞好消息或壞消息，皆是其盈餘管理之結果。再者，當市場預期趨近於一致時，公司管理當局愈會對市場傳遞出中性消息，亦即分析師之盈餘預測與管理當局盈餘預測趨於無差異。同時公司亦可能基於市場壓力，而利用裁決性應計項目以從事盈餘管理。當操縱前盈餘高於分析師預期之平均盈餘時且市場達成共識時，經理人員會傾向不從事盈餘管理，而在市場預期一致性程度低時，從事盈餘管理；反之，當操縱前盈餘低於分析師預期之平均盈餘，且市場預期一致性程度高時才會進行盈餘管理以增加盈餘而達成市場的預期。 / I test a market expectations and market consensus hypothesis about earnings management in Taiwan's public firms from 1996 to 1999. First of all, no matter what a good news or bad news that managers spread in markets is the result of earnings management. Furthermore, when analysts have reached a consensus in their earnings forecasts, managers' earnings forecasts are close to market expectations as possible. At the same time, managers also have an incentive to manage earnings through discretionary accruals to achieve market expectations. Finally, all sample-corporations are split into two groups. Group 1 observations have nondiscretionary earnings below the mean analysts' forecast, and Group 2 observations have nondiscretionary earnings above the mean analysts' forecast. The results suggest the corporation managers in Group 1 make greater use of discretionary accruals to manipulate earnings to achieve market expectations when analysts have reached a consensus in their earnings predictions. Oppositely, the corporation managers in Group 2 make less use of discretionary accruals to save them in use of next period when analysts lacks consensus in their earnings forecasts.

本研究旨在探討沙氏法302條款（Sarbanes-Oxley Act Section 302，以下簡稱SOX302）、沙氏法404條款（Sarbanes-Oxley Act Section 404，以下簡稱SOX404）與管理當局盈餘預測之關聯性，係美國S&P500之公司為研究對象，研究期間為2002年至2009年，主要檢測：(1)相對於SOX 404而言，在SOX 302規範下揭露無內部控制缺失之公司，其管理當局盈餘預測準確度是否會較低。(2)在SOX 404之規範下揭露有內部控制缺失之公司，公司層級的內部控制缺失相較於會計層級的內部控制缺失，是否會導致管理當局盈餘預測準確度較低。 本研究之實證結果顯示：(1)在無內部控制缺失情況下，相對於SOX 404而言，在SOX 302規範下，管理當局盈餘預測準確度會較低。(2)在SOX 404之規範下揭露有內部控制缺失之公司，公司層級的內部控制缺失相較於會計層級的內部控制缺失，會導致管理當局盈餘預測準確度較低。 / The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate the relation among SOX302, SOX404 and the accuracy of management earnings forecasts. Using a sample of S&P listed companies during the period 2002-2009, I address the following issues: (1) whether companies with effective internal controls under SOX302 have lower earnings forecast accuracy, compared with those under SOX404; (2) in the SOX404 context, whether companies with firm-level material weaknesses have lower earnings forecasts accuracy, compared with those with account-specific material weaknesses. As predicted, my empirical results show that: (1) compared with those under SOX404, companies with effective internal controls under SOX302 have lower earnings forecasts accuracy; (2) compared with those that disclosed account-specific material weaknesses under SOX404, the companies with firm-level material weaknesses have lower earnings forecasts accuracy.

歷經國內外多起知名企業的財務弊案後，各國政府及投資人開始關注公司的資訊透明度，企業也意識到資訊透明度對於企業永續經營的重要性，因此，本研究主要探討資訊透明度對於企業價值之影響。研究貢獻在於以具有專業和分析能力之分析師預測行為作為判斷企業資訊透明度之依據，進而探究其與企業價值之關聯性。本研究以2008年到2013年台灣上市(櫃)公司為樣本，以企業價值(Tobin’s Q)為應變數，資訊透明度相關之變數(分析師追蹤意願、分析師盈餘預測偏誤與分析師盈餘預測離散性)為主要解釋變數，在控制公司成長面、獲利面、風險面與公司規模因素，並固定產業和年份，利用追蹤資料迴歸模型(panel regression)來進行分析。 實證結果分為兩部分，（1）代表資訊透明度之變數－分析師預測意願、分析師預測精準度及分析師預測離散性與企業價值具有顯著正向關係。另利用前述之結果，本研究自行建立一個衡量企業透明度的模型，以整合性資訊探討資訊透明度對於企業價值的影響，實證結果顯示（2）資訊透明度與企業價值間確實具有顯著正向關係，結果支持良好的資訊透明度，有助於公司治理，長期間更能夠提升企業價值與永續經營。此外，本研究以整合資訊衡量企業資訊透明度，相較於單一資訊更為完善，也提供企業利害關係人及一般大眾不同面相去了解企業的資訊透明度，進而保護其權益。 / Since the occurrences of financial scandal, issues surrounding corporate governance and information disclosure have been widely discussed in these few years. Not only have government and investors started paying more attention on information transparency, but more and more firms have noticed that well corporate governance could help its sustainable development. The main purpose of this study is to examine the influences of information transparency on corporate value. Based on the samples of Taiwan listed firms for the period from 2009 to 2013, this study employs panel regression model with Corporate value (Tobin’s Q) as the dependent variable against various combinations of explanatory variables (analysts following, analysts’ earnings forecast bias and analysts’ earnings forecast derivation). The results of this research reveal that (1) the firms with high corporate value significantly have more analysts following, less analyst's earning forecast error and the greater forecast derivation. And by using an integrated model to do further analysis, the evidence shows that (2) higher information transparency could improve the corporate governance, gain more corporate value and benefit sustainable development in the long term. What’s more, instead of unitary source, this research measures corporate information transparency via integrated sources to ensure credibility, and provides various angles for corporate stakeholders and the general public to learn further more about corporate information transparency and be able to protect their rights.

本論文分為兩部分，第一部份是探討全球航空產業的油料避險會不會對公司價值有所影響，以及油料避險的誘因。第二部份則是檢視全球航空公司的風險曝露會不會影響分析師的預測誤差，尤其是燃油價格變動的風險曝露。 / In the first essay, we examine whether jet fuel hedging increases the market value of airline companies around the world. Using a sample of 70 airline companies from 32 countries over the period 1995 to 2005, we find that jet fuel hedging is not significantly positively related to their firm value in the global airlines, but this positive relationship holds in the various sub-samples and is significant for US and non-alliance firms. Moreover, our results show that the risk-taking behavior of executives and the tendency to avoid financial distress are important determinants for the jet fuel hedging activities of non-US airline companies. Alleviating the problem of underinvestment is also an important factor to explain the jet fuel hedging activities of US and non-alliance firms. Our results add support to the growing body of literature which finds that hedging increases firm value for global airline companies. In the second essay, we examine the extent analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to oil price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate shocks they have observed during the year, and whether these revisions contain additional information about how current and past price shocks affect reported earnings, using the sample of the global airline industry. Empirical results indicate that jet fuel hedging can increase analysts’ forecast revisions in the total sample, and in the sub-sample of the volatile fuel price period. These results can also be seen in US and non-US airlines, and airlines with both strong and weak governance. Overall, our results show that oil price shocks play an important role in investor and analyst information uncertainty with regard to the global airline industry. Consequently, corporate risk disclosures only provide limited information about firms’ financial risk exposures. Two essays are comprised in this dussertation to examine whether jet fuel hedging has effects on firm value and analysts’ forecast accuracy in the global airline industry. Using global data allows us to cmpare the differences of jet fuel hedging behavior and incentives for hedging across different sub-samples. Furthermore, we also examine how jet fuel hedging affects analysts’ forecast erros across different sub-samples and its implications for firm disclosures about their risk exposures in the financial reports. In the first essay, we examine whether jet fuel hedging increases the market value of airline companies around the world. Using a sample of 70 airline companies from 32 countries over the period 1995 to 2005, we find that jet fuel hedging is not significantly positively related to their firm value in the global airlines, but this positive relationship holds in the various sub-samples and is significant for US and non-alliance firms. Moreover, our results show that the risk-taking behavior of executives and the tendency to avoid financial distress are important determinants for the jet fuel hedging activities of non-US airline companies. Alleviating the problem of underinvestment is also an important factor to explain the jet fuel hedging activities of US and non-alliance firms. Our results add support to the growing body of literature which finds that hedging increases firm value for global airline companies. In the second essay, we examine the extent analysts revise their earnings forecasts in response to oil price, interest rate and foreign exchange rate shocks they have observed during the year, and whether these revisions contain additional information about how current and past price shocks affect reported earnings, using the sample of the global airline industry. Empirical results indicate that jet fuel hedging can increase analysts’ forecast revisions in the total sample, and in the sub-sample of the volatile fuel price period. These results can also be seen in US and non-US airlines, and airlines with both strong and weak governance. Overall, our results show that oil price shocks play an important role in investor and analyst information uncertainty with regard to the global airline industry. Consequently, corporate risk disclosures only provide limited information about firms’ financial risk exposures.

本文以事件研究法探討在公司治理程度不同的公司發布盈餘預測時， 不同類型的投資人在事件窗期中所反映的投資行為。首先以獨立董事與監 察人佔董監席次比例、董監事持股比例、大股東持股比例、經理人持股比 例、機構投資人持股比例、盈餘股份比以及董事長是否兼任總經理作為判 別公司治理程度的指標。再以公司發布盈餘預測的時點做區別，分別以當 年度首度預測是否由公司本身發布，與之後調高以及調低預測做為事件日。 實證結果顯示，當公司治理佳者發布盈餘預測時，外資會出現較多的買超 行為且獲得較高的異常報酬，散戶則持相反動作；而公司治理差者發布盈 餘預測時，散戶的買賣超變化量一般而言會較法人大，出現短期進出的情 形較多，且外資在其調高盈餘預測時，也不會馬上進行買進。整體而言， 外資在公司發布盈餘預測時所做出的交易行為，大致上與公司的治理程度 有正向關係，散戶則大多報持短線進出的態度。 / This study examines how different types of investors behave when entities with different corporate governances announce earnings forecasts. Using seven corporate governance indicators to categorize all of the samples and analyzing how the abnormal return, the results suggests foreign institutional investors are gaining more abnormal return by buying more stocks after earnings announcements of the entities with better corporate governance, and would not interact right after earnings announcements of the entities with worse corporate governance, when the individual investors are going the opposite way to the foreign institutional investors.

會計盈餘是企業向投資人傳達營運績效的指標，又投資人視公司達成分析師預測門檻與否為企業前景的重要訊號。當公司宣告策略聯盟決策時，資本市場給予正面評價，不過策略聯盟協議可能使管理當局存在機會主義與盈餘管理活動，過去文獻發現，有策略聯盟的公司，其盈餘品質較低。本文探究企業執行策略聯盟對於跨越盈餘門檻的關聯性，觀察策略聯盟事件是否為管理當局進行盈餘管理或是預期管理的工具，以迎合或擊敗分析師之盈餘預測門檻。本文實證發現策略聯盟與否及策略聯盟多寡與分析師預測門檻具有顯著正相關，而執行策略聯盟之公司從事向下引導分析師預測的機率較低，此外，實證結果亦發現，策略聯盟會降低公司管理當局採取向上調整裁決性應計數的可能性。綜上研究顯示，有策略聯盟之企業達成分析師預測門檻的機會較高，然而，其管理當局較不會選擇應計項目盈餘管理或預期管理方式來迎合或擊敗分析師之盈餘預測門檻。

本研究以日本東京證券交易所上市公司為研究對象，探討董事會成員年齡與強制性盈餘預測之關聯性。本研究將董事會成員年齡區分為五種：董事長的年齡、董事會成員的平均年齡、董事會成員年齡的標準差、董事會成員最高年齡跟最低年齡的差距及董事長年齡是否高於董事會成員平均年齡，以測試其所發布盈餘預測準確度與盈餘預測偏差之關聯性。而實證結果發現董事長的年齡越大、董事會成員的平均年齡越大、董事長年齡高於董事會成員平均年齡時，所發布的盈餘預測準確度也就越高，且傾向較為保守的盈餘預測。而董事會成員年齡的標準差越大、董事會成員最高年齡與最低年齡差距越大時，所發布的盈餘預測準確度較低，且傾向較為樂觀的盈餘預測。

Cette thèse analyse les conséquences et les implications des annonces de dividendes sur le marché boursier français dans un contexte de crise financière. Elle comporte quatre chapitres dont un premier, théorique qui trace les orientations des trois études empiriques réalisées. À l’issue de ce chapitre, il est proposé un cadre d’analyse de l’impact de la crise sur la politique de dividendes. Le deuxième chapitre traite de l’impact de la crise sur les réactions du marché. Il a testé et validé l’hypothèse d’une réaction différenciée des investisseurs aux annonces de dividendes en fonction du contexte économique. De surcroît, il met en évidence des réactions asymétriques des investisseurs en période de crise. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle explication à ces réactions asymétriques à travers la théorie de l’ambiguïté. L’hypothèse selon laquelle la nature et le degré d’incertitude de l’environnement macroéconomique auraient un impact sur la manière dont les investisseurs réagissent suite aux annonces de dividendes a été testée et validée. Le quatrième chapitre analyse la prévision des bénéfices comptables par les dividendes en période de crise, au regard de la théorie du signal. Nos résultats valident globalement les théories du signal et de l’ambiguïté. Même si la crise a affecté les réactions du marché français, elle n’a pas eu d’impact sur la relation significative qui existe entre les changements de dividendes et les variations de bénéfices futurs. Cette thèse analyse les conséquences et les implications des annonces de dividendes sur le marché boursier français dans un contexte de crise financière. Elle comporte quatre chapitres dont un premier, théorique qui trace les orientations des trois études empiriques réalisées. À l’issue de ce chapitre, il est proposé un cadre d’analyse de l’impact de la crise sur la politique de dividendes. Le deuxième chapitre traite de l’impact de la crise sur les réactions du marché. Il a testé et validé l’hypothèse d’une réaction différenciée des investisseurs aux annonces de dividendes en fonction du contexte économique. De surcroît, il met en évidence des réactions asymétriques des investisseurs en période de crise. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle explication à ces réactions asymétriques à travers la théorie de l’ambiguïté. L’hypothèse selon laquelle la nature et le degré d’incertitude de l’environnement macroéconomique auraient un impact sur la manière dont les investisseurs réagissent suite aux annonces de dividendes a été testée et validée. Le quatrième chapitre analyse la prévision des bénéfices comptables par les dividendes en période de crise, au regard de la théorie du signal. Nos résultats valident globalement les théories du signal et de l’ambiguïté. Même si la crise a affecté les réactions du marché français, elle n’a pas eu d’impact sur la relation significative qui existe entre les changements de dividendes et les variations de bénéfices futurs. / This dissertation investigates the consequences and implications of dividend announcements on French stock market in a context of financial crisis. It consists of four chapters including a first theoretical chapter that draws directions of the three empirical studies we realised. After this chapter, we provide an analysis framework of the impact of the crisis on the dividend policy. The second chapter discusses the impact of the financial crisis on french market reactions following dividend announcements. It tested and validated the hypothesis of a differentiated reaction of investors to dividend announcements based on the economic environment. Furthermore, it highlights asymmetric reactions of investors in times of crisis. The third chapter provides a new explanation for these asymmetric reactions through the ambiguity theory. The hypothesis according to which the nature and the degree of uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment has an impact on the way in which capital market prices react to dividend announcements was tested and validated. The fourth chapter analyses earnings forecast by dividends in times of crisis, according to the signaling theory. Our findings generally support the signaling and ambiguity theories. But, although the crisis affected the French market reactions to dividend announcements, it has no impact on the significant relationship between dividends changes and future earnings variations.