<div>This dissertation addresses two significant issues in the effective application of machine learning algorithms and models for the physical and engineering sciences. The first is the broad challenge of automated modeling of data across different processes in a physical system. The second is the dilemma of obtaining insightful interpretations on the relationships between the inputs and outcome of a system as inferred from complex, black box machine learning models.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Automated Geometric Shape Deviation Modeling for Additive Manufacturing Systems</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div>Additive manufacturing systems possess an intrinsic capability for one-of-a-kind manufacturing of a vast variety of shapes across a wide spectrum of processes. One major issue in AM systems is geometric accuracy control for the inevitable shape deviations that arise in AM processes. Current effective approaches for shape deviation control in AM involve the specification of statistical or machine learning deviation models for additively manufactured products. However, this task is challenging due to the constraints on the number of test shapes that can be manufactured in practice, and limitations on user efforts that can be devoted for learning deviation models across different shape classes and processes in an AM system. We develop an automated, Bayesian neural network methodology for comprehensive shape deviation modeling in an AM system. A fundamental innovation in this machine learning method is our new and connectable neural network structures that facilitate the transfer of prior knowledge and models on deviations across different shape classes and AM processes. Several case studies on in-plane and out-of-plane deviations, regular and free-form shapes, and different settings of lurking variables serve to validate the power and broad scope of our methodology, and its potential to advance high-quality manufacturing in an AM system.</div><div><br></div><div><b>Interpretable Machine Learning</b></div><div><b><br></b></div><div>Machine learning algorithms and models constitute the dominant set of predictive methods for a wide range of complex, real-world processes. However, interpreting what such methods effectively infer from data is difficult in general. This is because their typical black box natures possess a limited ability to directly yield insights on the underlying relationships between inputs and the outcome for a process. We develop methodologies based on new predictive comparison estimands that effectively enable one to ``mine’’ machine learning models, in the sense of (a) interpreting their inferred associations between inputs and/or functional forms of inputs with the outcome, (b) identifying the inputs that they effectively consider relevant, and (c) interpreting the inferred conditional and two-way associations of the inputs with the outcome. We establish Fisher consistent estimators, and their corresponding standard errors, for our new estimands under a condition on the inputs' distributions. The significance of our predictive comparison methodology is demonstrated with a wide range of simulation and case studies that involve Bayesian additive regression trees, neural networks, and support vector machines. Our extended study of interpretable machine learning for AM systems demonstrates how our method can contribute to smarter advanced manufacturing systems, especially as current machine learning methods for AM are lacking in their ability to yield meaningful engineering knowledge on AM processes. <br></div>

Nesta tese, apresentamos nossas estratégias para desenvolver um ambiente matemático e computacional para análises em larga-escala de dados de expressão gênica obtidos pela tecnologia de microarranjos de DNA. As análises realizadas visaram principalmente à identificação de marcadores moleculares de diagnóstico e prognóstico de cânceres humanos. Apresentamos o resultado de diversas análises implementadas através do ambiente desenvolvido, as quais conduziram a implementação de uma ferramenta computacional para a anotação automática de plataformas de microarranjos de DNA e de outra ferramenta destinada ao rastreamento da análise de dados realizada em ambiente R. Programação eXtrema (eXtreme Programming, XP) foi utilizada como técnica de planejamento e gerenciamento dos projetos de análise dados de expressão gênica. Todos os conjuntos de dados foram obtidos por nossos colaboradores, utilizando-se duas diferentes plataformas de microarranjos de DNA: a primeira enriquecida em regiões não-codificantes do genoma humano, em particular regiões intrônicas, e a segunda representando regiões exônicas de genes humanos. A primeira plataforma foi utilizada para avaliação do perfil de expressão gênica em tumores de próstata e rim humanos, sendo que análises utilizando SAM (Significance Analysis of Microarrays) permitiram a proposição de um conjunto de 49 sequências como potenciais biomarcadores de prognóstico de tumores de próstata. A segunda plataforma foi utilizada para avaliação do perfil de transcritos expressos em sarcomas, carcinomas epidermóide e carcinomas epidermóides de cabeça e pescoço. As análises com sarcomas permitiram a identificação de um conjunto de 12 genes relacionados à agressividade local e metástase. As análises com carcinomas epidermóides de cabeça e pescoço permitiram a identificação de 7 genes relacionados à metástase linfonodal. / In this PhD Thesis, we present our strategies to the development of a mathematical and computational environment aiming the analysis of large-scale microarray datasets. The analyses focused mainly on the identification of molecular markers for diagnosis and prognosis of human cancers. Here we show the results of several analyses implemented using this environment, which led to the development of a computational tool for automatic annotation of DNA microarray platforms and a tool for tracking the analysis within R environment. We also applied eXtreme Programming (XP) as a tool for planning and management of gene expression analyses projects. All data sets were obtained by our collaborators using two different microarray platforms. The first is enriched in non-coding human sequences, particularly intronic sequences. The second one represents exonic regions of human genes. Using the first platform, we evaluated gene expression profiles of prostate and kidney human tumors. Applying SAM to prostate tumor data revealed 49 potential molecular markers for prognosis of this disease. Gene expression in samples of sarcomas, epidermoid carcinomas and head and neck epidermoid carcinomas was investigated using the second platform. A set of 12 genes were identified as potential biomarkers for local aggressiveness and metastasis in sarcoma. In addition, the analyses of data obtained from head and neck epidermoid carcinomas allowed the identification of 7 potential biomarkers for lymph-nodal metastases.

La thèse présentée s'intéresse à la modélisation de l'aléa pluviométrique dans la région du Sud-Est de la France centrée sur les Cévennes. Cette région connait régulièrement des crues rapides et très localisées appelées crues éclair qui ont des impacts socio-économiques considérables. Une mesure statistique de l'aléa est la fréquence d'occurrence ou, de manière équivalente, la période de retour. La pluie étant un phénomène qui s'accumule non uniformément dans le temps et dans l'espace, l'aléa pluviométrique est une variable multi-échelle. Cette thèse vise à en proposer une modélisation intégrée pour la région du Sud-Est de la France, c'est à dire valide pour le continuum d'échelles spatio-temporelles.La première partie de ces travaux permet de comprendre quel cadre d'inférence est le plus adapté à cette modélisation. La seconde partie propose un modèle permettant d'exprimer l'aléa pluviométrique sur le continuum d'échelles spatio-temporelles. Enfin, le troisième partie propose un cadre de quantification multi-échelle (en temps et en espace) de fréquence d'occurrence d'un événement pluviométrique donné ainsi que la quantification des incertitudes associées / This thesis aims at modelling the rainfall hazard in a mountainous region of southeastern France centered on the Cévennes massif. This region undergoes intense rainfall events leading to flash floods, which have considerable socio-economics impacts. A statistical measure of hazard is the frequency of occurrence, or equivalently the return period. Since rainfall accumulates in both time and space, rainfall hazard in a multi-scale variable. This thesis propose a generic framework for rainfall hazard modelling over the continuum of spatio-temporal scales.The first part of this work allows to determine which is the most relevant statistical framework. The second part proposes a multi scale modelling of rainfall hazard for the region. Finally, the third part allows the multi-scale quantification of the frequency of occurrence of a given storm and of the related uncertainties.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-05-04T13:42:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tania Maria Lopes Torres.pdf: 1314109 bytes, checksum: 6289a50acfa1f253ae58c3c5b77b0a7a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-04T13:42:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tania Maria Lopes Torres.pdf: 1314109 bytes, checksum: 6289a50acfa1f253ae58c3c5b77b0a7a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-19 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This research set out to qualitatively investigate the success or failure of the anointing of the sick as a means of statistically altering the predictable natural history of a disease. Its methodology consisted of an outcome study, as proposed by Finkler (1985), aimed at a rural community, in the Lagoa Bonita district, in Engenheiro Coelho, Brazil, where most of the residents profess Seventh-Day Adventistism. The data were collected by means of semistructured interviews with twenty-two participants. The sample was formed either with respondents (90% of whom were Adventists) who underwent the ritual of anointing (referred to as “subjects”) or, in case they were not available, with respondents who met the two ad hoc criteria for inclusion (referred to as “informants”): (1) close kinship; and (2) being present during the ministration of the rite. At least 14 (i.e., 63%) of the subjects could be described as being in severe or terminal condition. For the analysis of the data, Bardin’s content analysis method was used. At the end of the investigation, it was confirmed that the anointing of the sick is sociologically effective and anthropologically justifiable, since it belongs to the dimension of symbolic regulation, which is why spiritual caregivers can minister to patients with chronic pain in aspects often neglected by biomedicine, hence the need for its institutionalization as a possibility of treatment / Esta investigação se propôs a pesquisar qualitativamente o sucesso ou o fracasso da unção de enfermos como meio de alterar estatisticamente a história natural previsível de uma enfermidade. Sua metodologia consistiu de um estudo de resultados (outcome study), conforme proposto por Finkler (1985), voltado para uma comunidade rural, no bairro Lagoa Bonita, município de Engenheiro Coelho, onde os residentes são, em sua maioria, fiéis da Igreja Adventista do Sétimo Dia. A coleta de dados foi feita por meio de entrevistas semiestruturadas com vinte e dois participantes. Constituiu-se a amostra ou com respondentes (90% dos quais eram adventistas) que se submeteram ao ritual da unção (denominados “sujeitos”) ou, no caso de sua impossibilidade, com respondentes que satisfizessem os dois critérios ad hoc de inclusão (denominados “informantes”): (1) parentesco próximo; e (2) presença durante a ministração do rito. Pelo menos 14 (isto é, 63%) dos sujeitos podiam ser descritos como em estado grave ou terminal. Para a análise dos dados, empregouse o método da análise de conteúdo de Bardin (1977). Confirmou-se, no final da investigação, a tese que o rito da unção é sociologicamente eficaz e antropologicamente justificável, pois pertence à dimensão da regulação simbólica, razão pela qual os cuidadores espirituais conseguem ministrar aos pacientes com dor crônica em aspectos geralmente negligenciados pela biomedicina, daí a necessidade de sua institucionalização como possibilidade de tratamento

O desenvolvimento da Medicina Nuclear, aliado à evolução dos equipamentos de diagnóstico e terapia, necessita, cada vez mais, da disponibilidade comercial de radioisótopos. Nesse contexto, o IPEN tem buscado atender e abastecer o mercado nacional. Um dos investimentos nesta área foi a aquisição de um ciclotron de 30 MeV, modelo Cyclone-30, que permitiu a produção dos radioisótopos tais como, o 18F, 67Ga, 201Tl e o 123I, sendo este último o foco do presente trabalho. Através de dados de produções rotineiras de 123I via irradiação com prótons em alvo gasoso de Xenônio com enriquecimento superior a 99,8% em 124Xe, foi realizado um estudo para identificar os fatores relevantes que influenciam diretamente o rendimento de obtenção de 123I com altíssimo grau de pureza. Embora a metodologia seja bem conhecida, quando se trata de produção comercial há uma escassez de dados sobre os parâmetros operacionais utilizados. Os parâmetros avaliados foram: pressão do gás 124Xe, intensidade de corrente de feixe de prótons, tempo de irradiação, temperatura de operação do sistema durante a irradiação, tempo de espera para formação de 123I, tempo de aquecimento do porta-alvo para recuperação do 123I formado, temperatura de aquecimento da solução de lavagem e influência do revestimento interno da câmara de irradiação com Ni. Com os resultados obtidos, foi possível alterar as condições operacionais nas produções rotineiras, conduzindo a um aumento de eficiência do processo em torno de 30%. / The development of diagnosis equipment and therapy procedures in nuclear medicine depends on the availability of commercial radioisotopes. IPEN is the most important institution that provides radioisotopes for national market. In order to achieve this function, IPEN had invested in the acquisition of a 30 MeV Cyclone-30 cyclotron to produce mainly 18F, 67Ga, 201Tl and 123I. The 123I production is the aim of the present work. With the 123I routine production data obtained by proton irradiation of Xe targets with an enrichment greater than 99.8%, it was possible to identify the important parameters that have direct influence on the production yield of high purity degree 123I. Even though the methodology for the commercial production of 123I, there are an scarcity of operational parameters data for this task. In this work the evaluated parameters were: 124Xe pressure, proton beam quality, irradiation time, operational temperature of the irradiation system under irradiation, waiting time to obtain 123I, temperature of washing solution and the impact of the internal Ni coating in the target. With the obtained results it was possible to modify the operational conditions for routine production and increasing the efficiency in about 30%.

Master's thesis is devoted to the dialogue between image and word. Two different approaches are developed in the theoretical part. First, a word as part of a figurative expression, then an image assuming function that usually belongs to words. The second part is the main focus of the whole work, which is the diary as a medium dealing with both ways of expression. In the following chapters of the theoretical part, we are looking for the principles of diary in various examples of fine arts. Their definition opens up space for the author's - practical part. There are four different ways of the diary forms presented in practical part. The work experiments with expression between images and words to free diary from conventions and traditional ways. Similarly, the didactic part elaborates two innovative realized art projects. The first presents the concept of author identification with a fictitious character and its subsequent diary creation. In the second, the theme of the diary is demonstrated in form of a profile on the Facebook social network, which arises from the imaginary creation of an "updated artist". The master's thesis brings the original author's view into the interpretation of the visual arts through the principles of diary creation, their essence is subsequently documented and disseminated...

[pt] Com diversas aplicações em matemática, física e finanças, Teoria das Matrizes Aleatórias (RMT) recentemente atraiu muita atenção. Enquanto o RMT Hermitiano é de especial importância na física por causa da Hermenticidade de operadores associados a observáveis em mecânica quântica, O RMT não-Hermitiano também atraiu uma atenção considerável, em particular porque eles podem ser usados como modelos para sistemas físicos dissipativos ou abertos. No entanto, devido à ausência de uma simetria simplificada, o estudo de matrizes aleatórias não-Hermitianas é, em geral, uma tarefa difícil. Um subconjunto especial de matrizes aleat órias não-Hermitianas, as chamadas matrizes aleatórias normais, são modelos interessantes a serem considerados, uma vez que oferecem mais simetria, tornando-as mais acessíveis às investigções analíticas. Por definição, uma matriz normal M é uma matriz quadrada que troca com seu adjunto Hermitiano. Nesta tese, amplicamos a derivação de estatísticas de valores extremos (EVS) de matrizes aleatórias Hermitianas, com base na abordagem de polinômios ortogonais, em matrizes aleatórias normais e em gases Coulomb 2D em geral. A força desta abordagem a sua compreensão física e intuitiva. Em primeiro lugar, essa abordagem fornece uma derivação alternativa de resultados na literatura. Precisamente falando, mostramos a convergência do autovalor redimensionado com o maior módulo de um conjunto de Ginibre para uma distribuição de Gumbel, bem como a universalidade para um potencial arbitrário radialmente simtérico que atenda certas condições. Em segundo lugar, mostra-se que esta abordagem pode ser generalizada para obter a convergência do autovalor com menor módulo e sua universalidade no limite interno finito do suporte do autovalor. Um aspecto interessante deste trabalho é o fato de que podemos usar técnicas padrão de matrizes aleatórias Hermitianas para obter o EVS de matrizes aleatórias não Hermitianas. / [en] With diverse applications in mathematics, physics, and finance, Random Matrix Theory (RMT) has recently attracted a great deal of attention. While Hermitian RMT is of special importance in physics because of the Hermiticity of operators associated with observables in quantum mechanics, non-Hermitian RMT has also attracted a considerable attention, in particular because they can be used as models for dissipative or open physical systems. However, due to the absence of a simplifying symmetry, the study of non-Hermitian random matrices is, in general, a diffcult task. A special subset of non-Hermitian random matrices, the so-called random normal matrices, are interesting models to consider, since they offer more symmetry, thus making them more amenable to analytical investigations. By definition, a normal matrix M is a square matrix which commutes with its Hermitian adjoint, i.e., (M, M (1)). In this thesis, we present a novel derivation of extreme value statistics (EVS) of Hermitian random matrices, namely the approach of orthogonal polynomials, to normal random matrices and 2D Coulomb gases in general. The strength of this approach is its physical and intuitive understanding. Firstly, this approach provides an alternative derivation of results in the literature. Precisely speaking, we show convergence of the rescaled eigenvalue with largest modulus of a Ginibre ensemble to a Gumbel distribution, as well as universality for an arbitrary radially symmetric potential which meets certain conditions. Secondly, it is shown that this approach can be generalised to obtain convergence of the eigenvalue with smallest modulus and its universality at the finite inner edge of the eigenvalue support. One interesting aspect of this work is the fact that we can use standard techniques from Hermitian random matrices to obtain the EVS of non-Hermitian random matrices.

La protection des zones littorales contre les agressions naturelles provenant de la mer, et notamment contre le risque de submersion marine, est essentielle pour sécuriser les installations côtières. La prévention de ce risque est assurée par des protections côtières qui sont conçues et régulièrement vérifiées grâce généralement à la définition du concept de niveau de retour d’un événement extrême particulier. Le niveau de retour lié à une période de retour assez grande (de 1000 ans ou plus) est estimé par des méthodes statistiques basées sur la Théorie des Valeurs Extrêmes (TVE). Ces approches statistiques sont appliquées à des séries temporelles d’une variable extrême observée et permettent de connaître la probabilité d’occurrence de telle variable. Dans le passé, les niveaux de retour des aléas maritimes extrêmes étaient estimés le plus souvent à partir de méthodes statistiques appliquées à des séries d’observation locales. En général, les séries locales des niveaux marins sont observées sur une période limitée (pour les niveaux marins environ 50 ans) et on cherche à trouver des bonnes estimations des extrêmes associées à des périodes de retour très grandes. Pour cette raison, de nombreuses méthodologies sont utilisées pour augmenter la taille des échantillons des extrêmes et réduire les incertitudes sur les estimations. En génie côtier, une des approches actuellement assez utilisées est l’analyse régionale. L’analyse régionale est indiquée par Weiss (2014) comme une manière très performante pour réduire les incertitudes sur les estimations des événements extrêmes. Le principe de cette méthodologie est de profiter de la grande disponibilité spatiale des données observées sur différents sites pour créer des régions homogènes. Cela permet d’estimer des lois statistiques sur des échantillons régionaux plus étendus regroupant tous les événements extrêmes qui ont frappé un ou plusieurs sites de la région (...) Cela ainsi que le caractère particulier de chaque événement historique ne permet pas son utilisation dans une analyse régionale classique. Une méthodologie statistique appelée FAB qui permet de réaliser une analyse régionale tenant en compte les données historiques est développée dans ce manuscrit. Élaborée pour des données POT (Peaks Over Threshold), cette méthode est basée sur une nouvelle définition d’une durée d’observation, appelée durée crédible, locale et régionale et elle est capable de tenir en compte dans l’analyse statistique les trois types les plus classiques de données historiques (données ponctuelles, données définies par un intervalle, données au-dessus d’une borne inférieure). En plus, une approche pour déterminer un seuil d’échantillonnage optimal est définie dans cette étude. La méthode FAB est assez polyvalente et permet d’estimer des niveaux de retour soit dans un cadre fréquentiste soit dans un cadre bayésien. Une application de cette méthodologie est réalisée pour une base de données enregistrées des surcotes de pleine mer (données systématiques) et 14 surcotes de pleine mer historiques collectées pour différents sites positionnés le long des côtes françaises, anglaises, belges et espagnoles de l’Atlantique, de la Manche et de la mer du Nord. Enfin, ce manuscrit examine la problématique de la découverte et de la validation des données historiques / The protection of coastal areas against the risk of flooding is necessary to safeguard all types of waterside structures and, in particular, nuclear power plants. The prevention of flooding is guaranteed by coastal protection commonly built and verified thanks to the definition of the return level’s concept of a particular extreme event. Return levels linked to very high return periods (up to 1000 years) are estimated through statistical methods based on the Extreme Value Theory (EVT). These statistical approaches are applied to time series of a particular extreme variable observed and enables the computation of its occurrence probability. In the past, return levels of extreme coastal events were frequently estimated by applying statistical methods to time series of local observations. Local series of sea levels are typically observed in too short a period (for sea levels about 50 years) in order to compute reliable estimations linked to high return periods. For this reason, several approaches are used to enlarge the size of the extreme data samples and to reduce uncertainties of their estimations. Currently, one of the most widely used methods in coastal engineering is the Regional Analysis. Regional Analysis is denoted by Weiss (2014) as a valid means to reduce uncertainties in the estimations of extreme events. The main idea of this method is to take advantage of the wide spatial availability of observed data in different locations in order to form homogeneous regions. This enables the estimation of statistical distributions of enlarged regional data samples by clustering all extreme events occurred in one or more sites of the region. Recent investigations have highlighted the importance of using past events when estimating extreme events. When historical data are available, they cannot be neglected in order to compute reliable estimations of extreme events. Historical data are collected from different sources and they are identified as data that do not come from time series. In fact, in most cases, no information about other extreme events occurring before and after a historical observation is available. This, and the particular nature of each historical data, do not permit their use in a Regional Analysis. A statistical methodology that enables the use of historical data in a regional context is needed in order to estimate reliable return levels and to reduce their associated uncertainties. In this manuscript, a statistical method called FAB is developed enabling the performance of a Regional Analysis using historical data. This method is formulated for POT (Peaks Over Threshold) data. It is based on the new definition of duration of local and regional observation period (denominated credible duration) and it is able to take into account all the three typical kinds of historical data (exact point, range and lower limit value). In addition, an approach to identify an optimal sampling threshold is defined in this study. This allows to get better estimations through using the optimal extreme data sample in the FAB method.FAB method is a flexible approach that enables the estimation of return levels both in frequentist and Bayesian contexts. An application of this method is carried out for a database of recorded skew surges (systematic data) and for 14 historical skew surges recovered from different sites located on French, British, Belgian and Spanish coasts of the Atlantic Ocean, the English Channel and the North Sea. Frequentist and Bayesian estimations of skew surges are computed for each homogeneous region and for every site. Finally, this manuscript explores the issues surrounding the finding and validation of historical data

O objetivo da dissertação é analisar a assinatura em um contexto geral que considera a dinâmica no tempo e a dependência estocástica, utilizando a teoria de martingais para processos pontuais. / The main goal in this work is to analyse the signature structure in a broader context considering time dynamics and stochastic dependence using the point processes martingale theory.

Ce travail de thèse porte sur l'étude du comportement morphodynamique d'une plage de poche, partiellement aménagée, lors des événements de tempête. La plage de Zarautz (Espagne) a été choisie comme site d'étude en raison de son climat de vagues et de sa configuration. La plage est limitée latéralement par des falaises rocheuses. Elle présente un système dunaire sur la partie est et une digue aménagée en promenade sur le reste de la plage. Le climat de houle au large de Zarautz (bouée de Bilbao) est caractérisé par une faible variabilité directionnelle. Dans 95 % des cas, les vagues proviennent de directions comprises entre l'Ouest (O) et le Nord (N). Les conditions de vague à l'approche de la plage de Zarautz sont quasi unidirectionnelles et peuvent présenter une variabilité longitudinale. La variabilité temporelle et spatiale des barres sableuses d'avant côte, a été étudiée à partir de l'analyse d'images vidéo enregistrées quotidiennement sur une période de deux années. Les résultats montrent que d'un point de vue hydrodynamique la plage se comporte la plupart du temps comme une plage ouverte. Toutefois, elle peut également présenter une circulation de type cellulaire au cours des événements de haute énergie. La morphologie de la plage présente une grande variabilité spatiale et temporelle. On remarque également des différences morphologiques notables entre la partie aménagée et la partie est de la plage. Pour étudier la réponse morphologique de la plage à des événements de haute énergie, des relevés topographiques ont été menés avant et après plusieurs tempêtes. Les courants d'arrachement, stables et persistants pendant des conditions énergétiques modérées à fortes peuvent éroder localement la zone intertidale de la plage. Dans des conditions de haute énergie et lors de marées de vives eaux le haut de plage et le cordon dunaire sont érodés. A l'inverse, lors de conditions de haute énergie qui coïncident avec des marées de mortes-eaux, l'évolution de l'estran, de l'arrière-plage et de la dune sont essentiellement contrôlées par les caractéristiques des vagues plutôt que par l'amplitude de la marée. Afin d'analyser et de compléter les résultats obtenus, une étude numérique a été réalisée à partir du code open source XBeach. En raison de l'absence de données de bathymétrie, le modèle d'assimilation de données Beachwizard a été utilisé afin d'estimer la bathymétrie à partir des images collectées par la station vidéo. La possibilité de forcer ce modèle avec des conditions de vagues variables le long de la limite du domaine de calcul a été mise en œuvre. Les résultats montrent que la prise en compte de conditions limites variables améliore la capacité du modèle à estimer la bathymétrie. Les tests de calibration du modèle XBeach révèlent que les résultats peuvent varier considérablement en fonction des paramètres choisis. Toutefois, les résultats du modèle XBeach semblent peu sensibles aux caractéristiques du spectre de vagues utilisé pour forcer le modèle. Une série de simulations ont été réalisées afin d'étudier le cluster de tempêtes de Février 2013 en analysant non seulement l'influence de la chronologie des différentes tempêtes mais aussi du niveau d'eau au cours de cette période. Ces simulations ont permis de mettre en évidence que les mouvements sédimentaires sont dominés par un transfert de sable de la dune vers la zone intertidale sans période de reconstruction de la dune. L'érosion des différentes sections de la plage est fortement corrélée au niveau d'eau. L'érosion de la dune et de l'arrière-plage ne se produit que lorsque les niveaux de marée élevés prévalent alors que la zone intertidale est érodée à marée basse. Il apparaît que l'impact des tempêtes sur la plage est beaucoup plus dépendant du niveau d'eau que de la chronologie des événements énergétiques au cours d'un cluster de tempêtes. / The aim of this study is to understand the response of engineered pocket beaches to storms. To that end, a series of video images, field topographical measurements and depth-averaged (2DH) process-based model have been used. The beach of Zarautz was chosen as a study site due to its wave climate characteristics and beach configuration. It is an embayed beach composed by two well defined regions, a dune system and an engineered section. The offshore wave climate is characterised by a low directional variability. The 95 % of the cases ranges from W to N directions. The high energetic events are seasonally variable. Most of the storms take place during winter and autumn. The wave climate at the beach of Zarautz is almost unidirectional and it presents certain alongshore variability. The temporal and spatial variability of nearshore sandbars, using daily video observations over 2 years was carried out. In general the beach acts as an open beach like circulatory system but it may present cellular and transitional circulation during high energy events. The nearshore sandbars evolution covers a wide range of temporal and spatial variability. Interestingly, the western engineered and more sheltered section of the beach sometimes exhibits a different beach state to that of the eastern section. To study the response of the beach to high energy events, systemically designed topographic surveys were undertaken before and after storm events. The location of the rip currents seems to play a role on the beach erosion. Static and persistent rips during moderate high energy conditions may erode locally the beach intertidal zone. During high energetic conditions and spring tides the beach backshore and dune area is eroded. Dune and backshore sections become important as they act as a buffer, preventing the foreshore erosion. On other hand, during high energetic conditions coinciding with neap tides, the evolution of the foreshore, backshore and dunes might be sensitive to the wave characteristics rather than to the tidal range. The findings obtained from the video images and field measurements were completed by means of the XBeach process based model. Due to the lack of a pre-storm bathymetry the XBeach-Beach Wizard model was used in order to infer the surfzone features. The possibility to force the model with non-uniform alongshore wave conditions was implemented. Results show that this new implementation improves the model skills. The XBeach calibration tests reveal that the results can vary considerably depending on the set of parameters chosen to run the model. Parameters such as short wave run-up, γ, γua, eps and hmin seem to be relevant for the model calibration. A series of storm impact simulations were performed. A chain transport mechanism was found in which the sand is transported from the dunes to the intertidal zone, and never in the other way around. The erosion of the different sections of the beach is highly related to the tidal level rather that to the wave power. The main differences in the beach response between the natural and engineered sections are related to the sand budget. The complete loss of the backshore sand makes the intertidal zone weak to the storms (the chain transport is interrupted). This scenario is only likely to happen at the engineered sector due to the narrow backshore and the absence of a dune system. Some tests were performed in order to relate the 'storm magnitude' to a certain value of beach erosion. These findings point out that, in general, the higher the storm power is, the larger is the beach erosion. However, the wave characteristics that define a given storm play an important role. Furthermore, in some cases a low power storm with high Hs and Tp can produce larger changes on the beach than a large storm with low Hs and Tp.