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Darbe taikyta Norvaišos ir Salopk (2002) metodologija funkcijos šiurkštumui nagrinėti remiantis modifikuotu funkcijos grafiko dėžučių skaičiaus indeksu. Funkcijos šiurkštumas nusakomas p-variacijos indeksu, kuris prie tam tikrų sąlygų lygus fraktalo dimensijai. Darbe ištirtos tiesinės regresijos, kuri vertina p-variacijos indeksą, liekanos ir pasiūlytas būdas kaip išpildyti balto triukšmo prielaidas. Rezultatai apibendrinti Monte Carlo procedūra. Sukonstruoti p-variacijos indekso pasikliautinieji intevalai -stabiliam ir trupmeniniam Brauno judesio procesams. Ištirtas p-variacijos indekso kintamumas laike „Vallourec” akcijų kainos procesui. / To estimate the roughness of the sample function the methodology introdused in Norvaiša and Salopek (2002) was applied. The roughness is defined as p-variation index of the sample function graph. Methodology is based on linear regression of the oscilation index. This master thesis tests the assumptions of linear regression residuals and constructs estimator which fulfill these assumptions. The model was used for the generated α-stable process and fractional Brownian motion. Conclusions are generalized using Monte-Carlo procedure. The confidence intervals for the p-variation index was constructed making assumption that the process is the realisation of -stable or fractional Brownian motion. The p-variation index was estimated for the „Vallourec” stock price data, sampled at irregular time. In addidion the variability in time of p-variation index was studied for different segments of intervals.

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This thesis focuses on the study of factionalism in the Communist Party of Vietnam and relates it to the recent problems of the Vietnamese regime. In order to determine the causes of the current crisis in Vietnam and introduce the environment in which Vietnamese elites operate, this study analyses both formal and informal structures of the political system of Vietnam and the principles of their functioning. This thesis criticizes misleading usage of faction as an analytical tool in the works on Vietnam and presents Andrew Nathan's factional model elaborated for China which is applied to Vietnam in a slightly changed form. We present evidence showing that the central political arena in Vietnam displays factional characteristics. Those findings are linked to the problem immobilism in Vietnam which is connected with instability caused by the absence of political initiatives and needed reforms (mainly the political one). Attention is also drawn to the need for the development of a theory of factionalism. Key words: The Communist Party of Vietnam, factional theories, political system of Vietnam

本文以葉爾欽時期的派系政治為分析中心，認為派系是延續了過去的政治菁英文化傳統，不但在新的俄羅斯民主制度下繼續存活下來，還進一步成為主導整個俄羅斯發展的重要行動者。本文的研究發現主要有三方面：第一項發現是派系政治是分析葉爾欽時期政治的一個具有解釋力的模式。第二項發現是建構一個分析葉爾欽派系互動規則與架構，在此架構中建立一個評估派系政治穩定程度的指標，運用這個指標來分析俄羅斯派系政治的發展與演進。第三項發現是派系政治的穩定程度與俄羅斯的政經發展具有密切的關係存在，亦即俄羅斯的派系互動愈不穩定，俄羅斯的政治也隨之愈不穩定、人事互動愈頻繁，政策產出更加不確定，尤其是經濟政策隨著派系勢力的上上下下而來回擺盪變動。

ABSTRACT UNEASY COEXISTENCE: &ldquo / ISLAMISM VS. REPUBLICANISM&rdquo / DEBATE IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN Arikan, Pinar M. Sc., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Meliha AltuniSik December 2006, 170 pages The objective of this thesis is to analyze the Islamist and republican features of the political regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran. It aims to identify the relationship between Islamism and republicanism in terms of institutional and practical means throughout the period since the establishment of the Islamic Republic. It seeks an answer to the question of how the Islamist and republican orientations that built up the political regime and the system of governance in the Islamic Republic of Iran have affected the domestic political and ideological developments. For this aim, firstly, the history of ulama-state relations as well as the history of constitutional tradition in Iran is discussed. Then, the impact of Islamism and republicanism in the process of establishment of the new regime in Iran is examined. Afterwards, the emergence of Islamism and republicanism as indigenous ideological currents and the political groups that appealed to these two orientations are analyzed with special emphasis to the role of Khomeini in this process. In the remaining part, the institutional and practical implications of the coexistence of Islamist and republican orientations are scrutinized during the presidencies of Rafsanjani and Khatami respectively. Finally, this thesis is concluded with an overall assessment of Islamism vs. republicanism debate with reference to the 2005 presidential elections.

This thesis consists of two parts. The first part is on fractional factorial design, and the second part is on computer experiment. The first part has two chapters. In the first chapter, we use the concept of conditional main effect, and propose the CME analysis to solve the problem of effect aliasing in two-level fractional factorial design. In the second chapter, we study the conversion rates of a system of webpages with the proposed funnel testing method, by using directed graph to represent the system, fractional factorial design to conduct the experiment, and a method to optimize the total conversion rate with respect to all the webpages in the system. The second part also has two chapters. In the third chapter, we use regression models to quantify the model form uncertainties in the Perez model in building energy simulations. In the last chapter, we propose a new Gaussian process that can jointly model both point and integral responses.

Submitted by ANA KARLA PEREIRA RODRIGUES (anakarla_@hotmail.com) on 2017-08-23T16:14:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1030469 bytes, checksum: fd75dc32951ccd2147ed562db94af22a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-23T16:14:54Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 1030469 bytes, checksum: fd75dc32951ccd2147ed562db94af22a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-13 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The main goal of this work is to analyze concentration-compactness principles for fractional Sobolev spaces based on the concentration compactness principle of P.-L. Lions and in the pro le decomposition for weak convergence in Hilbert spaces due to K. Tintarev and K.-H Fieseler. As application, we address questions on compactness of the associated energy functional to the following nonlocal elliptic problems, $' ''''''&' ''''''% p qsu fpx; uq in RN; p qsu 􀀀 apxqu fpx; uq in RN; $&% p qsu 􀀀 V pxqu 􀀀 Kpxq u fpx; uq 􀀀 gpx; uq in R3; p q Kpxqu2 in R3; where 0   s   1; 0     1; 2 􀀀 4s ¥ 3; ¡ 0 and Kpxq ¥ 0 belongs to a suitable Lebesgue space. We obtain existence results for a wide class of possible singular potentials apxq; not necessarily bounded away from zero and for oscillatory nonlinearities in both subcritical and critical growth range that may not satisfy the Ambrosetti-Rabinowitz condition. / O objetivo principal deste trabalho é analisar princípios de concentração de compacidade para espaços de Sobolev fracionários baseados na concentração de compacidade de P.-L. Lions e no per l de decomposição para convergência fraca em espaços de Hilbert devido a K. Tintarev e K.-H Fieseler. Como aplicação, abordamos questões sobre a compacidade do funcional energia associado aos seguintes problems elípticos não locais, $' ''''''&' ''''''% p qsu fpx; uq em RN; p qsu 􀀀 apxqu fpx; uq em RN; $&% p qsu 􀀀 V pxqu 􀀀 Kpxq u fpx; uq 􀀀 gpx; uq em R3; p q Kpxqu2 em R3; onde 0   s   1; 0     1; 2 􀀀 4s ¥ 3; ¡ 0 e Kpxq ¥ 0 pertence a um espaço de Lebesgue adequado. Obtemos resultados de existência para uma vasta classe de potenciais apxq possivelmente singulares, não necessariamente limitados por baixo por uma constante positiva e para não linearidades oscilatórias em ambos os crescimentos subcríticos e críticos que podem não satisfazer a condição de Ambrosetti-Rabinowitz.

This thesis examines the nature of mass factionalism and rebellious alignment during the Chinese Cultural Revolution from 1966 to 1968. This period in Chinese history presents an internecine mass conflict that boasts the largest political upheavals of the 20th century. The most puzzling question of the explosion of this intense rebellious rivalry lies in the mechanisms and processes of insurgents’ political choices: Why did people join and affiliate with different insurgent groups? What decision did people make and what were their reasons? In conventional social structural analyses of contentious politics, mass actors’ decisions are affected by functionally differentiated interests inherent in their pre-existing social positions. This model defines mass rebellion and factional alignment as a form of interest group politics, attributing political choices to participants’ pre-existing sociopolitical status quo and thus pits different social groups against one another. As a result, similar occupational and status groups in the previous hierarchical structure would make similar political choices that lead them to form well-defined competing factions. In contrast to this static structural interpretation, I propose a contextual process model to analyze processes of political division and factional contention within political movements. With a case study of Guangzhou, I argue that rebellious alignment was rooted in their political interactions in a rapidly evolving phase of the conflict, rather than rising from the tensions that existed between different socio-economic layers of society. During the times of radical instability such as the Chinese Cultural Revolution, political ambiguity and contingency were the defining characteristics. In such unstable political environment, the basic elements of the movement changed so many times: each phase of the rebel movement projected itself by means of different actors, agendas, targets, and so on. Consequently, individual rebels observed their embedded local political environment, interpreted it, and subsequently chose a course of action in a dynamic process. In this regard, mass actors from identical social strata in the previous hierarchical structure would make different political choices and tactically choose their factional camp.

臣下敢在君主深惡痛絕之下結黨爭權，君主的領導方法或能力，一定有所欠缺，縱使英明強幹的君主，如其在重大問題上遲疑不決，或已決定而又起動搖，臣下即可能結黨相爭，如果君主採用「分而治之」的手段，利用臣下的對立，以維護君權，也可能引起黨爭；如果君主不能明斷，則君主已失其定分止爭的作用。臣下為求取勝利，自不免結黨以爭，如果君權已經旁落，則君主為求收回權力、或臣僚中之不滿於竊取權力者，亦將結黨以爭，漢、唐、宋、明各代的黨爭無不如此。 故就東漢、中唐、北宋、晚明等黨爭的形成原因來說，均難謂為出於某一單純原因而係由於各種因素的湊合，例如東漢黨爭的形成，君權旁落與取士制度關係取大，仕途壅塞則其助力，中唐牛李黨爭的形成，政策的不同，取士制度，均為主要原因，而君主所採「分而治之」的手段，君不明斷，仕途壅塞，均有助力，北宋的范仲淹、王安石及其反對者的鬥爭，主因即在學術政策的不同，地域的不同，君主的領導方式，亦有重要關係，晚明黨爭的發生，君主的領導無方最為重要原因，品性、地域的不同， 仕途的壅塞，取士制度等，均有關係。 最後我們認為朋黨的形成，一般都是出於「弱者」意識，所謂弱者，亦即自認其利益未被照顧或未被妥善照顧的人，這種人往往構成一個「不滿的利益集團」，不論何時何地，只要有「不滿的利益集團」存在，即可能出現朋黨。