Submitted by Claudinê Jordão de Carvalho (jordao@ufu.br) on 2012-08-03T13:15:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Jordao_final02082012.PDF: 1362684 bytes, checksum: 3d5f44eefbd2ddcd6b62207811829013 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2012-08-03T14:31:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Jordao_final02082012.PDF: 1362684 bytes, checksum: 3d5f44eefbd2ddcd6b62207811829013 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-08-03T14:33:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese_Jordao_final02082012.PDF: 1362684 bytes, checksum: 3d5f44eefbd2ddcd6b62207811829013 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-07-18 / This study investigates the differences in how managers control working capital in micro and small enterprises. The contributions derives of this study extend the literature on short-term financial MSEs in the sense of understanding how the items related to the construct of working capital behave in an emerging economy with changeable and severe market frictions and a different level of financial development. The different management styles may occur due to the impact of development, depth of financial market and access to and supply of trade credit. The determinant factors of these styles of management of working capital in micro and small enterprises (MSEs) are identified and explained in light of the foundations of theories of growth of firms in stages, of the resource-based view, trade credit, agency and transaction costs. This is a joint research with cross-section investigation in three steps. It consists of a survey and interviews. The data collected through a survey of 447 managers of MSEs in the states of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo were analyzed by multivariate techniques where four 'styles' of management of working capital were identified, which can be explained by variables such as age, size and profitability of the firm and by content analysis of the interviews. The database was treated with multivariate techniques and structural equation modeling. The results suggest that Brazilian executives are more likely to adopt financial control that the British leaders and credit management positively affects the management of inventory when mediated by internal funds. The results were compared to those obtained from a similar survey conducted in British companies (Westhead and Howorth, 2003), and the evidence shows important differences: 1) Brazilian companies review most of the working capital routines more often than British; 2) Brazilian MSEs offer and demand less trade credit than British MSEs. These differences may be explained, at least in part, by higher cost of bank financing for Brazilian firms in comparison to British firms. / Este estudo investiga as diferenças na maneira como gestores administram o capital de giro nas micro e pequenas empresas. As contribuições derivadas deste estudo ampliam a literatura financeira de curto prazo em MPEs no sentido de se compreender como os itens relacionados ao construto de capital de giro se comportam numa economia emergente, com fricções de mercado severas e mutáveis e com nível de desenvolvimento financeiro distinto. Os diferentes estilos de gestão podem ocorrer em razão do impacto do desenvolvimento e profundidade do mercado financeiro e do acesso e da oferta de trade credit. Os fatores determinantes desses estilos de condução da gestão do capital de giro em micro e pequenas empresas (MPEs) são identificados e, explicados, à luz dos fundamentos das teorias de crescimento das firmas por estágios, da visão baseada em recursos, de crédito comercial, de agência e de custos de transação. Esta é uma pesquisa mista com investigação cross-section, em três etapas. Ela foi composta por um survey e por entrevistas. Os dados obtidos por meio de um survey com dirigentes de 447 MPEs dos estados de Minas Gerais e São Paulo foram analisados por técnicas multivariadas, tendo sido identificados quatro “estilos” de gestão de capital de giro, que podem ser explicados por variáveis como idade, tamanho e lucratividade da firma e as entrevistas pela análise de conteúdo. A base de dados foi tratada com técnicas multivariadas e modelagem com equações estruturais. Os resultados sugerem que dirigentes brasileiros são mais propensos a adotar controle financeiro que os dirigentes britânicos e que gestão de crédito afeta positivamente a gestão de estoque quando mediada por fundos internos. Os resultados foram comparados aos obtidos por pesquisa similar realizada com empresas do Reino Unido (Howorth e Westhead, 2003), e a evidência mostra diferenças importantes: 1) as empresas brasileiras revisam a maioria das rotinas de capital de giro com maior frequência que as britânicas; 2) as MPEs brasileiras ofertam e demandam menos crédito comercial que as britânicas. Essas diferenças podem ser explicadas, pelo menos em parte, pelo maior custo do financiamento bancário das firmas brasileiras em comparação às britânicas.

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans le contexte de prolifération des accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR) et traite des effets des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous visons à mieux comprendre et à apporter des points de vue nouveaux sur le rôle des ACR et du régionalisme en général en tant qu’élément important de la politique commerciale international aujourd’hui. Dans le premier chapitre, nous revisitons les effets ex post des ACR sur le commerce des pays membres et le commerce extrabloc en adoptant une approche empirique. Nous cherchons à déterminer la manière dont les blocs commerciaux régionaux affectent le commerce non seulement entre pays membres mais aussi entre pays membres et pays extérieurs à l’accord. Notre analyse confirme que les ACR augmentent de manière significative le commerce intra-bloc ; néanmoins, dans de nombreux cas, les ACR impliquent des effets de détournement d’échanges qui sont préjudiciables au reste du monde. Le chapitre deux examine de quelle manière la période de mise en œuvre de l’accord et les niveaux de développement des pays membres déterminent, en dynamique, l’effet des ACR sur le commerce international. Nous obtenons des tendances distinctes des effets ex post de l’ACR sur le commerce entre les accords Nord-Nord, Sud-Sud et Nord-Sud. Nous vérifions empiriquement que les ACR conclus par des partenaires commerciaux ayant un statut de développement économique analogue (les accords Nord-Nord ou Sud-Sud) sont susceptibles d’engendrer une augmentation plus forte du commerce des membres pendant une période de mise en œuvre plus courte. Le chapitre trois porte sur la manière dont les interactions entre ACR et développement financier influencent les flux d'échanges entre partenaires commerciaux. Dans ce travail conjoint avec Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, nous montrons que le développement financier (particulièrement sous sa forme intermédiée) encourage les échanges commerciaux mais que cet effet est atténué dès lors que les partenaires commerciaux ont signé un ACR. / The subject of this dissertation focuses on the analysis of different aspects of the relationship between regional trade agreements (RTAs) and the multilateral trading system. We aim to provide a fresh understanding and views of the role of RTAs and regionalism in general as an important feature of international trade policy today. In chapter one we revisit the ex post effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade and extrabloc trade by adopting an empirical approach. We explore how regional trading blocs have influenced trade among members as well as trade with nonmembers. Our analysis confirms the widespread trade-enhancing effects of RTAs on member countries’ trade; however, in many cases, they lead to trade diversion effects that are detrimental to the rest of the world. Chapter two takes a closer look at how the implementation period of trade liberalization and partners’ levels of development affect the RTA dynamic effects on trade over time. We obtain distinct patterns of ex post RTA effects on trade across North-North RTAs, South-South RTAs and North-South RTAs. We empirically validate that RTAs formed by trading partners experiencing similar economic development status (North-North RTAs or South-South RTAs) are likely to lead to a larger increase in members’ trade during a shorter implementation period. Chapter three studies the mechanism through which RTAs impact the effect of financial development on trade flows between exporting and importing countries. In this joint work with Anne-Gaël Vaubourg, we show that the trade-enhancing role of financial development in the exporting country—especially through intermediated finance—is mitigated when there is an RTA between this country and its trading partner.

Ce travail a pour but d’approfondir l’analyse des effets des contraintes de financement sur le commerce international, en portant une attention particulière aux pays BRICS, notamment le Brésil. Cette thèse comporte trois chapitres. Le premier chapitre évalue la vulnérabilité financière des secteurs manufacturiers brésiliens dans les années 2000, en se basant sur le travail de Rajan et Zingales (1998). Ce chapitre souligne l’importance du développement financier et des crédits publics dans l’allocation intersectorielle du capital au Brésil. Le deuxième chapitre étudie les effets des contraintes financières sur les exportations des firmes brésiliennes, dans le cadre théorique de firmes hétérogènes (Manova, 2013). Il s’agit de repenser le lien entre la taille et les performances d’exportation, en présence de contraintes financières au niveau sectoriel. Ce chapitre montre l’importance des difficultés d’accès au crédit au Brésil dans l’explication des performances d’exportation. Le troisième chapitre étudie les effets du développement financier sur les exportations vers les BRICS, avec un intérêt particulier pour les effets de la crise financière de 2008. Ce chapitre confirme l’importance du développement financier comme source d’avantage comparatif dans les secteurs dépendants de la finance externe. Cet avantage lié au développement financier perd de son importance pendant la crise. Les résultats confirment l’importance du canal financier de transmission de la crise. / This thesis aims at deepening the analysis of the effects of financial constraints on international trade performances, with a focus on the BRICS countries, notably Brazil. This thesis includes three chapters. The first chapter aims at evaluating the level of financial vulnerability of Brazilian manufacturing sectors in the 2000s, based on the work of Rajan and Zingales (1998). This chapter stresses the importance of the financial development and of public credits in causing the inter-sectoral capital misallocation. The second chapter focuses on the link between financial constraints and the performances of Brazilian exporters, in a framework of heterogeneous firms as in Manova (2013). Specifically, I revisit the link between firm size and firm exports by focusing on the financial constraints at sector-level. Findings emphasize the importance of problems of access to credit in Brazil, in explaining Brazilian firms’ export performances. The third chapter analyzes the effects of financial development in exporting countries on their exports to BRICS countries, with a focus on the recent financial crisis effects. Results confirm the role of financial development as a source of comparative advantage in sectors with high reliance on external finance. The positive effect related to financial development is lessened during the crisis. This confirms the importance of the trade finance transmission channel of the crisis.

No description available.

By using the cross-sectional data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey, this dissertation selects a sample of over 3000 firms from 16 Central and Eastern European countries during the 2008 financial crisis, to assess (1) How effective priori classifications are to identify financially constrained and unconstrained firms in times of economic recession (2) What the main robust determinants are at the firm and country-level that affect SMEs' degree of financing obstacles (3) What experiences and lessons we can learn from 2008 crisis to combat with 2020 and future emerging recession. Our evidence indicates that during the economic crisis happened in 2008, size, industry, ownership and EU dummy are useful priori classifications while distinguishing firms' different degree to financing troubles, although some of other priori classifications appeared on other literature are ineffective. Smaller firms, foreign-owned and firms in manufacturing are more likely to report the financing trouble and have less access to formal sources of finance. However, government-owned firms and firms with adequate educated workers are less likely to be financially constraint. The result confirms that economic freedom, financial market and trade integration all have a significant relationship with SMEs' access to finance. For...

本文旨在研究地下經濟規模與金融發展對實質人均GDP成長率之影響。我們使用二種不同金融發展資料，分別為私部門信貸規模及股市成交值規模。使用的資料型式為追蹤資料，時間由西元1981年至2008年，國家共22個，其中有14個已開發國家，8個開發中國家。模型部分共採用三種型式，首先為一般線性模型，其次為納入地下經濟規模與金融發展交互作用之非線性模型，最後則是門檻迴歸模型。 結果顯示，在一般線性模型中，地下經濟規模及私部門信貸規模對實質人均GDP成長率的影響並不顯著，而股市成交值規模對實質人均GDP成長率有顯著正面影響。 而在納入地下經濟規模與金融發展之交互作用項後，私部門信貸規模與地下經濟規模的交互作用項對實質人均GDP成長率有顯著負面影響，而股市成交值規模與地下經濟規模之交互作用項對實質人均GDP成長率有負面影響，但不顯著。由上面的結果，我們推斷地下經濟規模與實質人均GDP成長率可能存在著非線性的關係。 在門檻迴歸中，若把顯著水準設在10%，我們發現納入私部門信貸規模與股市成交值規模的模型存在顯著的門檻效果。在門檻迴歸中，若把私部門信貸規模或是股市成交值規模當作門檻變數，當金融發展程度低時，地下經濟規模對實質人均GDP成長率有顯著正面影響，而當金融發展程度高時，地下經濟規模對實質人均GDP成長率的影響並不顯著。 總結來說，我們建議低度金融發展國家適度的允許地下部門發展，因為政府無法干預地下部門，因此地下部門的營運較有效率，適度允許反而有助於提高資本投資的效率，進而促進實質人均GDP成長率。相反地，我們建議高度金融發展國家的政府應限制地下部門的發展。 / This paper focuses on linear effects and nonlinear effects of underground economy and financial development on the growth rate of real GDP per capita. Utilizing two alternative measures of financial development, including the size of private credit and stock trade. The analysis relies on a sample of 22 countries for the period 1981-2008, including 14 developed countries and 8 developing countries. We use three different models, including linear model, nonlinear regression with a cross-term and panel threshold model. The results show that in the linear model, underground economy and private credit have no significant impact on the growth rate of real GDP per capita, but stock trade has a significant positive impact on the growth rate of real GDP per capita. Moreover, the interaction between private credit and underground economy has a significant negative impact on the growth rate of real GDP per capita, on the other hand, the interaction between stock trade and underground economy has an insignificant negative impact on the growth rate of real GDP per capita. Hence, we speculate there have a nonlinear effect between underground economy and the growth rate of real GDP per capita. In the panel threshold model, if the level of significance is set in 10%, we find that the model with private credit and stock trade have threshold effect, it implies that the sample can be split into two regimes: High degree of financial development and Low degree of financial development. Underground economy has a significant positive impact on the growth rate of real GDP per capita when private credit is low, so does stock trade. In conclusion, we suggest that it may be optimal for countries with a less developed formal financial sector to accept more tax evasion, because it accelerates the efficiency in capital investment and then facilates the growth rate of real GDP per capita. On the contrary, countries with a more developed formal financial sector should impose more tax compliance.

La présente thèse a pour objectif d'analyser le rôle des institutions sur la croissance économique, et notamment sur l'attractivité et l'effet des investissements directs étrangers (IDE). Pour cela, nous avons utilisé douze indicateurs de mesure de la qualité des institutions et testé leurs effets en retenant un échantillon important de pays développés, en voie de développement et en transition. Notre démarche se décline en trois chapitres. Le chapitre 1 est consacré à l'évaluation de l'effet direct des institutions sur la croissance économique en fonction du niveau de développement des pays étudiés. Les résultats montrent que la qualité des institutions a un effet plus important sur la croissance dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire, en particulier la stabilité politique et la lutte contre la corruption. Pour les pays à revenu élevé le facteur le plus déterminant est le respect des lois et des contrats. Le chapitre 2 analyse l'effet indirect des institutions sur la croissance à travers les IDE. Les résultats mettent en évidence l'existence des seuils institutionnels qui conditionnent l'effet des IDE sur la croissance selon la situation géographique et le niveau de développement des pays. Il ressort notamment que la lutte contre la corruption et l'amélioration de la démocratie sont les canaux travers lesquels les IDE favorisent la croissance dans les pays d'Afrique du Nord et du Moyen-Orient et d'Asie, la stabilité d gouvernement et le respect des contrats étant les plus importants dans les pays d'Europe et d'Amérique. Le chapitre 3 s'intéresse à l'effet de l'ouverture financière et du développement financier sur l'attractivité des IDE en mettant e évidence le rôle des institutions. Les résultats montrent que pour les pays qui ont libéralisé leur compte de capital, l'entrée d'IDE est plus importante lorsqu'ils disposent d'une bonne qualité institutionnelle. De la même manière, l'attractivité des IDE est favorisée par 1 passif liquide des banques et les crédits au secteur privé, mais il est moindre pour les pays dotés d'importantes ressources naturelle: Les résultats soulignent l'existence d'un seuil institutionnel à partir duquel le poids de la capitalisation boursière et des litres échangé en bourse favorisent l'attractivité des IDE. La confrontation des résultats des chapitres 2 et 3 permet d'avancer que le seuil institutionnel à travers lequel le développement financier améliore l'attractivité des IDE est plus élevé que le seuil à travers lequel les IDE impactent la croissance. Dans les pays e développement en particulier, la qualité des institutions constitue une contrainte plus sévère en termes d'attractivité qu'en termes d'effet des IDE sur la croissance. / This thesis aims to investigate the role of institutions on economic growth, specifically through the attractiveness and the impact of Foreign Direct lnvestment. For this, we use twelve measures of the institutional quality and we test their effects using a set of developed, developing and transition countries. Our approach is divided into three parts. Chapter 1 analyzes the direct effect of institutions on economic growth by level of development of countries. Results show that the quality of institutions has a greater effect on growth in middle-income countries, particularly the effects of political stability and fightinç against corruption. For high-income countries, the most important factors are respect of laws and contracts. Chapter 2 examines the indirect effect of institutions on growth through FDI. Results highlight the existence of institutional thresholds that condition the effect of FDI on economic growth by countries and by level of incarne. It appears that fighting against corruption an improving democracy are the mechanisms through which FDI promotes growth in the MENA and the Asia group, and through the respect of contracts and government stability in the Europe and the America group. Chapter 3 assesses the effect of financial openness and financial development on the attractiveness of FDI by highlighting the role o institutions. Results indicate that countries that have opened their capital account have received more FDI inflows and the effect is higher in countries with good institutional quality. Similarly, FDI attractiveness is enhanced by liquid liabilities and credit to the private sector but is lower in natural resouce endowed countries. The results highlight that countries are able to attract FDI through stock market capitalization and traded only above an institutional threshold. We highlight in this thesis that the institutional level through which financial development impact the attractiveness of FDI is higher than the institutional level through which FDI contributes to growth. ln the developing group, the quality of institutions is an important constraint in term of attractiveness than in terms of the effect of FDI on GDP growth.

Cette thèse de doctorat représente un effort visant à contribuer à la littérature sur le système d'alerte précoce traitant de la prévision de la crise de la dette souveraine et de la compréhension des comportements d’investissement et de croissance des PME dans le contexte de la crise financière mondiale. Le chapitre 1 adresse les crises de la dette à travers un échantillon d'économies émergentes dans la poursuite d'un modèle d'alerte précoce efficace et précis basé sur trois techniques différentes d'exploration de données. Les chapitres 2 et 3 mettent l'accent sur les mécanismes qui sous-tendent l'investissement et la croissance des PME d'un pays en voie de développement dans le contexte de la CFM. Le chapitre 2, réalisé en collaboration avec Majda Seghir, explore le comportement d'investissement des PME en Serbie relatif à la disponibilité des flux de trésorerie générés en interne dans le cadre de la CFM. Il relie cette sensibilité au niveau de contraintes financières comme approximé par les variables telles que la taille de l'entreprise, la structure de propriété, l'effet de levier et la tangibilité de leurs actifs. Finalement, le chapitre 3, travail conjoint avec Michael Stemmer, s'appuie sur l'idée derrière le chapitre 2 pour étudier l'effet des contraintes financières sur la croissance des PME serbes en utilisant le cadre GMM. Nous opposons nos résultats à une économie avancée en faisant une comparaison avec des entreprises belges. / This doctoral thesis represents an effort aimed to contribute to Early Warning System literature dealing with prediction of sovereign debt crisis and understanding of investment and growth behavior of SMEs inthe setting of the global financial crisis. Chapter 1 deals with debt crises over a sample of emerging economies in pursuit of an efficient and accurate early warning model based on three different datamining techniques. In Chapters 2 and 3 the focus is on the mechanisms behind investment and growth of SMEs in a developing country in the context of GFC. Chapter 2, joint work with Majda Seghir, exploresthe investment behavior of SMEs in Serbia with regard to the availability of internally generated cash flowin the context of GFC. It relates this sensitivity to the level of financial constraints as proxied by variables such as firm’s size, ownership structure, leverage and tangibility of their assets. Finally, Chapter 3, done in collaboration with Michael Stemmer, builds on the idea behind Chapter 2 to investigate the effect of financial constraints on growth of Serbian SMEs using GMM framework. We contrast our results with anadvanced economy by running a comparison with Belgian firms.

This thesis presents three essays on the main determinants and regulations of international capital flows. The essays contribute to an ongoing significant debate among scholars and practitioners on what determines international capital flows by examining the following issues: Global liquidity, market sentiment and financial stability indices; Global liquidity and capital flow regulations; and Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics. In the first essay, we explore the main determinants of global liquidity, measured using cross-border claims of banks, and establish the link between a variety of financial stability indices and global liquidity. For a sample of 149 countries between 2000 and 2016, we find that Bloomberg Financial Stability Indices are more powerful in explaining global liquidity than FRED Financial Stress Indices and the Euro Area Systemic Stress Composite Indicator (CISS). Moreover, both market sentiment indices, namely the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index are economically and statistically significant on cross-border bank flows. The research provides useful insights on what market sentiment and financial stability indices are better to employ for financial markets surveillance and as such practice of investment management. We argue that anyone interested in using financial stability indices as indicators of financial conditions and the level of financial stress would benefit from tracking several indices and not just one. The second essay examines the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential policies as ways to manage the volume of international capital flows, controlling for other determinants. The findings show that capital controls imposed on inflows generally prevail over controls imposed on outflows in reducing the magnitude of capital flows. The results are consistent with the pecking order theory on capital flows and are connected with the riskiness of different asset classes. For a sample of 112 countries over 2000 and 2016, we find that FX and/or countercyclical reserve (RR_REV) and general countercyclical capital buffer requirements (CTC), reserve requirement ratios (RR) and concentration limits (CONC) are the most effective macroprudential policies for managing countries' exposures to global liquidity fluctuations. Moreover, progress is being made to reduce the systemic risks created by systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) using macroprudential policies. The results reflect recent developments in Basel III regulations and shed light on the effective calibration of capital flow regulations to country-specific circumstances. The final essay examines the link between global governance indicators and patterns of gross capital flows, controlling for other determinants. For a sample of 67 countries between 2000 and 2016, we contribute to explain the existence of the Lucas paradox (1990) on "why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries" and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle (1980). The findings show that institutional quality rather than the effect of diminishing returns of capital is a key explanation for the Lucas paradox. Finally, we provide new evidence on the relationship between the multidimensional nature of financial development and gross capital flows. The findings show the importance and predominance of financial institutions versus financial markets in the dissemination of international capital flows across counties.

一、金融發展對經濟成長的影響：動態門檻效果的分析 本研究旨在探討於全球的架構下，各國金融發展對於經濟成長之關係為何？並且進一步探討銀行發展及股市發展是否對經濟成長有不對稱效果。對於過去相關文獻無法獲得金融發展與經濟成長間一致的關係，我們懷疑應與金融發展與經濟成長之間為非線性關係有關。延伸 Shen and Lee (2006) 我們將探討是否於金融發展與經濟成長間存在著銀行的門檻效果，並提出兩個假說，第一是「blessing-in-low-regime」，即在低度銀行發展區域，金融發展對於經濟成長有正面影響。第二是「curse-in-high-regime」即在高度銀行發展區域，金融發展對於經濟成長有負面影響。本文發展一個新的模型：dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM)是延伸Hansen (1999)的panel threshold model，認為經濟成長會受到自己上一期變數所影響，結果指出就銀行發展對於經濟成長的影響而言，在低度銀行發展區域支持「blessing-in-low-regime」；在高度銀行發展區域支持「curse-in-high-regime」。反之，就股市發展對於經濟成長的影響，在低度銀行發展區域並不支持「blessing-in-low-regime」;在高度銀行發展區域亦不支持「curse-in-high-regime」。 二、金融發展與經濟成長的雙向因果關係 本研究探討是否金融發展與經濟成長之間存在一項非線性的雙向因果關係，且此項因果關係是否受到金融發展以及經濟成長程度的影響。在全球的架構下，利用42個國家1976年到2005年的資料，使用一項新發展的計量模型：dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM)來探討此項因果關係。實證結果顯示，當使用銀行發展做為門檻變數時，在低度銀行發展區域，銀行發展對於經濟成長有正面影響，然而股市發展則對經濟成長有負面影響；而在高度銀行發展區域，銀行發展對於經濟成長的影響性則轉向負面影響，而股市發展則轉向正向支持經濟成長。相對地，無論在低度銀行發展區域或是高度銀行發展區域，經濟成長對於銀行發展皆有正面影響。最後，當使用經濟成長做為門檻變數時，本文發現金融發展與經濟成長的因果關係並未改變。 三、金融發展如何影響所得分配？倒U型分配假說與線性假說 本研究使用1976年到2005年42個發展中與已發展國家的資料，分析金融發展與所得分配的關係，並且進一步探討金融發展是否對所得分配有不對稱效果，隨著銀行發展程度的不同，其對所得分配的影響性將隨之改變。過去金融發展與所得分配的相關文獻提出兩項相對的理論假說，分別為Greenwood and Jovanovic (1990)的「倒U型分配假說」與Galor and Zeira (1993)的「線性假說」。本研究發展一項計量模型dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM)來檢驗這兩項假說。分析結果顯示，在低度銀行發展區域，股市發展將提升所得不均；而在高度銀行發展區域，股市發展則轉為減緩所得不均，支持「倒U型分配假說」。相對地，無論在低度銀行發展區域或是高度銀行發展區域，銀行發展對所得不均的影響性皆為負向的減緩效果，不支持「倒U型分配假說」，然而其對所得分配的影響性仍存在不對稱的門檻效果。 / Essay 1: Blessing or Curse? The Role of Financial Development to Economic Growth This study aims to investigate the asymmetric effect between financial development and economic growth by considering the threshold effect. Based on Shen and Lee's (2006) findings, we examine whether the effect of financial development on economic growth depends on the threshold variable of bank development. Our hypothesis is that bank development is a blessing to economic growth at the low bank development regime, but it is a curse at the high bank development regime. To examine the “blessing-in low-regime” and “curse-in high-regime” hypothesis, we develop a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) to test this hypothesis. The DPTM is a direct extension of the non-dynamic panel threshold model of Hansen (1999). We conclude that the effect of bank development on economic growth supports the hypothesis. Nevertheless, the effect of stock market development on economic growth does not support the hypothesis. Essay 2: A Bivariate Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth This study hypothesizes that causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is not linear; however, it may be influenced by the level of financial development or economic growth. A new econometric method, dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) is proposed to investigate conditional causality. Herein, the thresholds of “bank development” and “economic growth” are applied. When bank development is used as threshold in the low bank-developed regime, bank development is beneficial for economic growth. However, it poses adverse effects on the stock market. In contrast, in the high bank-developed regime, bank development exhibits an adverse effect on economic growth whereas the stock market manifests the opposite effect. Nevertheless, economic growth is beneficial for bank development in both regimes, though the influence is stronger in the low bank-developed regime. Results are robust when the income level of a country is utilized as a threshold. Essay 3: How does Financial Development Affect the Distribution of Income? Inverted U-shaped Hypothesis or Linear Hypothesis This study analyzes the relationship between financial development and income distribution using panel data from both developing and developed countries between 1976 and 2005. Specifically, we analyze whether financial development has an impact on income inequality and whether this impact depends on the threshold variable of bank development. We define the low and high bank development regimes when a country's bank development is below and above the threshold and test two alternative hypotheses the “inverted U-shaped hypothesis” and the “linear hypothesis” with a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM). The DPTM is a direct extension of the non-dynamic panel threshold model of Hansen (1999). We find little evidence to support the inverted U-shaped relationship between inequality and finance, the effect of stock market development on inequality supports the inverted U-shaped hypothesis. Nevertheless, the effect of bank development on inequality does not support the inverted U-shaped hypothesis. However, the relationship between financial development and income distribution is nonlinear.