This thesis examines the relationship between price expectations and current consumption. Especially, whether the postponement of final consumption expenditure by households, as a result of their declining price expectations; which may be a deflatively-recessive spiral starter; coincides with economic theory and practice. Based on this, appropriate economic policy recommendations can be drawn. The analysis in the framework of intertemporal consumer model of two periods extended by inflation and the risk confirms this hypothesis. Price expectations positively affect current consumption through the intertemporal substitution effect of real interest rate changes. However, certain assumptions must be fulfilled. Especially, the economy must be in a fixed nominal interest rate environment, the substitution effect must not be offset by the effect of a change in the expected real disposable income or the income effect of the change in the real interest rate and the households must have a higher disposable income so that they can afford to postpone consumption. These findings coincide with the conclusions of the empirical analyzes mentioned in this thesis.

L’objectif de cette thèse est de contribuer à la littérature en économie en analysant trois déterminants psychologiques dans la manière dont les individus prennent des décisions dans le temps en utilisant des approches et des méthodologies issues de l’économie et de la psychologie. Ainsi, le premier chapitre de cette thèse analyse théoriquement la demande des individus pour des dispositifs d’engagement pour lutter contre leur propre préférence pour le présent. Cette étude théorique est illustrée par une expérience en laboratoire sur la perte de poids. Le deuxième chapitre étudie empiriquement l’impact des conditions de travail sur les comportements de santé des individus à la lumière de la littérature en psychologie sur l’autorégulation. Le troisième chapitre propose une traduction et une validation de l’échelle des aspects de l’identité et montre que l’analyse économique des préférences individuelles peut bénéficier de la ré-introduction de la subjectivité de l’identité personnelle. Enfin, le dernier chapitre de cette thèse explore dans quelle mesure cette subjectivité de l’identité personnelle peut être importante pour comprendre les choix intertemporels. / The objective of this thesis is to contribute to economic literature by analysing three psychological determinants in the way individuals make decisions over time, using approaches and methodologies from economics and psychology. Thus, the first chapter of this thesis theoretically analyses the demand for commitment devices to overcome their own present-bias. This theoretical study is illustrated by a laboratory experiment on weight loss. The second chapter empirically examines the impact of working conditions on individuals’ health behaviours in the light of the psychological literature on self-control. The third chapter proposes a translation and validation of the Aspects of Identity Questionnaire and shows that the economic analysis of individual preferences can benefit from the reintroduction of the subjectivity of personal identity. Finally, the last chapter of this thesis explores the extent to which this subjectivity of personal identity can be important in understanding intertemporal choices.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / Impulsivity, or the tendency to act prematurely without foresight, has been linked to a diverse range of pathological conditions. Foresight refers to the ability to envision future rewards and events (i.e. prospectively sample) and has been associated with decreased impulsivity. One form of impulsivity is measured by the ability to delay gratification and is often studied in the framework of Delay Discounting (DD). DD provides the means to study impulsivity in a number of pathological conditions. However, whether impulsivity precedes the development of pathological states or results from the pathological state itself is not fully understood. This necessitates an understanding of neurobiological mechanisms contributing to decision making in both non-impulsive as well as impulsive populations of individuals. Animal models allow invasive techniques to be used to dissect the neurocircuitry involved in decision making. Given that the decision-making process is an ongoing process rather than an isolated event, optogenetics provide the temporal and spatial specificity necessary for evaluating brain region specific contributions to decision making in DD. In the present study, optogenetics were used to assess the contribution of the medial Prefrontal Cortex (mPFC), a brain region involved in ‘goal-directed’ behavior, in the planning of future choices (i.e. prospective plans) and subsequent measures of impulsivity in an adjusting amount DD procedure. Optogenetic inhibition of mPFC was conducted in Wistar rats during different epochs of a DD task in order to assess how mPFC affects planning behavior in a population of rat not considered to be highly impulsive. Although no direct effects on planning behavior (e.g. consistency) were observed, inhibiting mPFC after a trial has been initiated and directly before a choice was made (Epoch 2) was observed to increase measures of impulsivity in comparison to days where no optogenetic manipulation occurred in a delay-specific manner. This suggests that mPFC differentially contributes to decision making at different delays. A pattern of associations between choice latency, impulsivity, and consistency began to emerge for inactivation occurring in Epoch 2, suggesting that mPFC contributes to some aspect of planning choices during this epoch. Moreover, these results indicate that mPFC is involved in decision making in Wistar Rats. Understanding the direct role that mPFC plays in promoting choices of delayed rewards provides a neurobiological target for treatment aimed at reducing impulsivity in the clinical population.

No description available.

Socioeconomic disparities in life outcomes is a widely observed occurrence. In particular, low socioeconomic status (SES) has been related to a variety of behaviours that tend to perpetuate or even exacerbate the conditions that individuals of such social standing are already facing. The last two decades have been marked by a growing number of studies seeking to disentangle behavioural differences associated with one’s socioeconomic status that fuel the persistence of these differences. This Doctoral thesis joins the discussion by investigating a subset of behaviours associated with low SES. Three empirical chapters and one literature review seeks to answer the following questions: first, what are the consumer behaviour patterns exhibited by low SES individuals? Second, how do poverty-related thoughts influence consumption of (un)taxed temptation goods? Third, what is the effect of perceived individual control on intertemporal preferences? And fourth, how does salient socioeconomic status affect intertemporal choices regarding effort? Chapter 1 overviews literature on socioeconomic status and consumer happiness. We discuss channels through which low SES can impact consumption decisions and present main behavioural patterns of low SES consumers. Low SES has been found to have a significant impact on dietary patterns that include consumption of fruits and vegetables, foods with high calorie content, as well as consumption of temptation goods like alcohol, tobacco, and sugar-sweetened beverages. Moreover, low SES individuals also tend to engage in status-signalling behaviours, despite the scarcity of financial resources. We discuss how SES can delineate consumer happiness, in particular, regarding experiential and material goods. Finally, we review evidence on socioeconomic disparities in satisfaction with product-specific characteristics and health care as well as consumer loyalty. Chapter 2 presents an empirical investigation of the intersection between socioeconomic status and consumer behavior. In particular, we study demand for temptation goods such as alcohol, tobacco or high-calorie foods. One of the most conventional ways that governments control the consumption of these products is through taxes; however, a growing body of research shows the presence of numerous behavioral biases that might prove such fiscal policies less effective. One of these biases is related to financial worries - a concept familiar to deprived individuals. Previous studies have shown that increasing worries shift attention towards pressing needs, potentially at the cost of forward-looking decisions. We run an online experiment in which we manipulate financial worries and ask participants to choose between necessities and temptation goods in the experimental market. We also randomly impose taxes on temptation goods for a subset of participants. Results suggest that under financial worries and no taxes participants demand less temptation goods and this effect is stronger for lower income individuals. However, when taxes are introduced and financial concerns are salient, lower income participants do not react to taxes. This suggests that, on the one hand, financial worries can protect against over-consumption of temptation goods when there are no tax changes; however, low income consumers can be hurt the most when additional taxes are implemented. Chapter 3 investigates another psychological occurrence - a feeling of control - and its impact on intertemporal preferences. Generally, low SES individuals have less chances to exert control in their lives compared with high SES people. If perceived control has a substantial impact on the intertemporal choice, these disparities may have a long lasting impact that might make it harder to move up in terms of social status. In an online experiment we manipulate the feeling of control by asking participants to remember a certain situation. We vary control in terms of level - not having control vs being in full control – and type – being in a situation involving other people or a non-social situation. Afterwards, we ask participants to make intertemporal allocation decisions - either regarding a monetary experimental budget or a number of real effort tasks. We find no evidence of present bias in monetary discounting for either of the control treatments. Results are different for effort discounting: on aggregate level, participants in this condition reverse their preferences more often as they choose to perform more tasks sooner when the decision involves only future points in time, but less when the decision involves also present. Moreover, we find evidence of significant present bias in the low control condition. Allocation decisions are mediated by emotional states activated in the feeling of control manipulation: for money condition, the strongest mediator is the feeling of fear, while for effort discounting it is sadness. Overall, the results suggest that although recalling a situation of (no) control does not influence intertemporal allocation decisions regarding windfall money, it can impact decisions about the allocation of effort. Chapter 4 continues the discussion on intertemporal preferences and socioeconomic status. It is a well established that low SES is related to impatient behaviours. While many works have analyzed psychological channels which mediate this effect, such as cognitive load, stress, emotional affects, and self-control issues, this work seeks to test whether the mere salience of one’s subjective SES has an impact on intertemporal preferences regarding effort. In an online experiment, I prime participants on their SES and ask to make effort allocation decisions. I find that priming affects only low status participants: this group made more present-biased choices by postponing effort to the future even if it mean higher workload. No effect was found for nonprimed low SES participants or higher status individuals in both treatment and control groups. I conclude that even a mere act of making SES salient in your mind can have an adverse effect to low SES individuals by pushing them to postpone work to the future.

Humans and other animals systematically discount the value of future rewards as a function of their delay, and individual differences in the steepness of this ``delay discounting'' are predictive of a range of important real-world outcomes. Episodic future thinking, the mental simulation of episodes in the personal future, is one means by which to curb delay discounting. This thesis seeks to contribute to our understanding of how this effect occurs. The account that predominates in the literature is that episodic future thinking simulates the experience of future rewards, enabling their undiscounted value to be appreciated in the present. This thesis takes this account as a starting point, formalizing it in a mathematical model and carrying out several experimental studies to test its predictions. We find that key predictions are not borne out and develop an alternative account in which simulated experience plays a less central role. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Pursuing our goals for the future usually means sacrificing immediate gratification, yet we often make decisions that are not in our best interest over the long term. This is because we assign lower subjective value to future rewards the further they are from the present. Individuals differ in how much they devalue future rewards, and these differences are related to many real-world outcomes. Our tendency to devalue future rewards is reduced when we vividly imagine the future in a process called ``episodic future thinking,'' and this thesis seeks to understand how this effect occurs. The most obvious explanation would seem to be that episodic future thinking ``simulates'' the experience of future rewards and allows us to recognize their value in the present. However, using results from several experimental studies, I argue that this may not be the best explanation after all, and I develop an alternative.

La présente thèse expose, analyse et critique les positions classiques et modernes à l’égard de la nature et des causes de la faiblesse de volonté. L’identification du problème par Platon et Aristote a donné lieu à l’explicitation de principes et propositions portant sur la rationalité pratique en général et la motivation en particulier. Une discussion de ces principes et propositions est faite dans la mesure où ils ont conservé une certaine pertinence pour les théories modernes. Ce qui est devenu la conception standard de la stricte akrasie ainsi que son caractère prétendument paradoxal sont mis de l’avant. Nous argumentons qu’une position sceptique à l’égard de la stricte akrasie ne peut pas reposer sur une version ou une autre de la théorie des préférences révélées et montrons qu’une description du processus décisionnel est nécessaire pour attribuer une préférence synthétique ou un meilleur jugement. Nous abordons le débat philosophique qui oppose une conception internaliste du lien entre le meilleur jugement et la décision à une conception externaliste, et soutenons, sur la base de résultats expérimentaux en psychologie cognitive et en neuroscience, que cette dernière conception est plus robuste, bien qu’imparfaite. Ces résultats ne vont pas toutefois à l’encontre de l’hypothèse que les agents sont des maximisateurs dans la satisfaction de leur préférence, laquelle hypothèse continue de justifier une forme de scepticisme à l’égard de la stricte akrasie. Nous exposons, par contre, des arguments solides à l’encontre de cette hypothèse et montrons pourquoi la maximisation n’est pas nécessairement requise pour le choix rationnel et que nous devons, par conséquent, réviser la conception standard de la stricte akrasie. Nous discutons de l’influente théorie de Richard Holton sur la faiblesse de volonté non strictement akratique. Bien que compatible avec une conception non maximisante, sa théorie réduit trop les épisodes de faiblesse de volonté à des cas d’irrésolution. Nous exposons finalement la théorie du choix intertemporel. Cette théorie est plus puissante parce qu’elle décrit et explique, à partir d’un même schème conceptuel, autant la stricte akrasie que l’akrasie tout court. Ce schème concerne les propriétés des distributions temporelles des conséquences des décisions akratiques et les attitudes prospectives qui motivent les agents à les prendre. La structure de ces distributions, couplée à la dévaluation à l’égard du futur, permet également d’expliquer de manière simple et élégante pourquoi la faiblesse de volonté est irrationnelle. Nous discutons de l’hypothèse qu’une préférence temporelle pure est à la source d’une telle dévaluation et mentionnons quelques éléments critiques et hypothèses concurrentes plus conformes à une approche cognitiviste du problème. / This thesis explains, analyses and examines the classical and modern positions on the nature and causes of the weakness of will. Since Plato and Aristotle’s identification of the problem, many principles and propositions on the subject of practical rationality in general and motivation in particular have been examined in details. These principles and propositions are being discussed on the basis that they are still somewhat relevant to modern theories. An emphasis is made on what is now known as the standard conception of strict akrasia and its supposedly paradoxical nature. We argue that a skeptical position toward strict akrasia cannot be based on one version or another of the preference-revealed theory and we demonstrate that a description of the decision process is necessary to assign an overall preference or a better judgment. We discuss the philosophical debate on internalist and externalist conceptions of the connection between better judgment and decision. We then argue that, based on experimental results in cognitive psychology and neuroscience, the externalist conception, although imperfect, is stronger. But these experimental results are not incompatible with the hypothesis that agents are maximizers when it comes to the satisfaction of their preference. This hypothesis continues to justify a form of skepticism toward strict akrasia. However, we strongly argue against this hypothesis and we demonstrate why maximization is not absolutely necessary to rational choice; therefore, we have to revise the standard conception of strict akrasia. We then discuss Richard Holton’s influential theory on non-strictly akratic weakness of will. Although compatible with a non-maximizing conception, Holton’s theory tends to reduce episodes of weakness of will to irresolution cases. Lastly, we introduce the theory of intertemporal choice, a more potent theory that describes and explains, with the same conceptual schema, both strict and non-strict akrasia. This schema concerns the properties of temporal distribution of akratic decision’s consequences and the prospective attitudes that motivate agents to make those decisions. Also, the structure of these distributions, along with the devaluation of the future, allows us to explain, clearly and simply, why weakness of will is irrational. We discuss the hypothesis that this devaluation of the future is due to a pure temporal preference and we mention a number of critical elements and rival hypothesis more in keeping with a cognitive approach to the problem.

This thesis takes three different perspectives, using theoretical and experimental techniques, on time-inconsistent preferences and how the existence of multiple selves can affect both consumer behaviour and policy design. Across domains such as retirement saving, health, and educational achievement, intertemporal choice presents a challenge for both individuals and policymakers. The first paper, 'Choosing When to Nudge: Designing Behavioural Policy around Decision-Making Costs,' considers how behavioural policy, which has proven increasingly popular with policymakers, affects welfare. I find that for present-biased consumers, behavioural policies help some consumers but can inefficiently discourage others from optimizing. Such policies therefore have an ambiguous effect on welfare, and similar to traditional policies, can impose equity-efficiency tradeoffs. Monopolies may increase welfare given their incentive to simplify consumer decisions instead of exploit switching costs. The second paper, 'Virtue and Vice with Endogenous Preferences,' considers behaviour when preferences are affected by consumer decisions. I introduce agents whose temptation to consume in the present is affected by how much they choose to save for the future. I find that differences between agents can trap them in divergent paths of self-improvement -- saving more, they value the future more, making saving optimal -- or binging -- consuming more makes them indifferent to future costs, making consumption optimal. At the extreme, it is frequently an optimum for a consumer to consume their entire wealth. The final paper, 'Bet You Can't Eat Just One: Consumption Complementarity and 'Self'-Control' considers an intrapersonal game between a moderate cold self and a hot self that wants to indulge. In equilibrium, sophisticated selves best respond to each other's behaviour: the cold self over-abstains and the hot self over-indulges to avoid inducing the other state. I test these ideas in the lab, and find that subjects on a diet who were induced to consume a piece of chocolate before the experiment indulge more in chocolate during the experiment, even when the initial indulgence was imposed by the experimenter. Eating a piece of chocolate, this suggests, can induce a period during which chocolate is more appealing.

Diese Arbeit enthält drei unabhängige Kapitel, jedes davon im Bereich der Dynamischen Vertragstheorie. Kapitel I zeigt, dass deterministische dynamische Prinzipal-Agenten-Verträge immer mindestens so ertragreich sind wie stochastische, falls die sogenannte Methode erster Ordnung des dynamischen Mechanismus-Designs erfüllt ist. Meine Ergebnisse legen dar, dass die in der Literatur übliche Einschränkung auf deterministische Verträge zulässig ist, so lange die Methode erster Ordnung gültig ist. Kapitel II basiert auf einer gemeinsamen Arbeit mit Ilia Krasikov und Rohit Lamba. Ein Großanbieter (Prinzipal) handelt mit einer kleinen Firma (Agent) einen wiederkehrenden Geschäftsvertrag aus, wobei sich der Agent als ungeduldiger erweist. Der optimale Vertrag wird durch zwei Schlüsseleigenschaften beschrieben: Neustart und Abbruch, die vielerlei Eigenschaften der angebotenen Verträge darlegen. Kapitel III basiert schließlich auf einer gemeinsamen Arbeit mit Rohit Lamba. Darin besitzt der Agent dynamische private Information, die einem Markovprozess folgt. Ein monopolistischer Prinzipal verkauft dem Agenten ein nicht-dauerhaftes Gut und er verpflichtet sich in jeder Periode an den ursprünglich ausgehandelten Vertrag. Die entstehenden Informationskosten verhindern erst-beste Verträge bei auftretender Persistenz im Typ des Agenten. Diese Arbeit stellt einen Weg bereit, wie man den optimalen deterministischen Vertrag in dynamischen Prinzipal-Agenten-Modellen erhält. Der gewöhnliche Weg mit lediglich lokal nach unten bindenden Anreizverträglichkeitsbedingungen misslingt bei hoher Persistenz der Typrealisierungen und bei stark differenzierender Diskontierung. Zudem zeigt die Arbeit wann mit Gewissheit stochastische Verträge ausgeschlossen werden können. / This dissertation consists of three independent chapters, each in the field of dynamic contracting. Chapter I shows that deterministic dynamic contracts between a principal and an agent are always at least as profitable to the principal as stochastic ones, if the so-called first-order approach in dynamic mechanism design is satisfied. My results demonstrate that the usual restriction in the literature to deterministic contracts is admissible, as long as the first-order approach is valid. Chapter II is based on joint work with Ilia Krasikov and Rohit Lamba. We consider a large supplier (principal) who contracts with a small firm (agent) to repeatedly provide working capital in return for payments. The agent is less patient than the principal. The optimal contract is characterized by two key properties: restart and shutdown, which capture various aspects of contracts offered in the marketplace. Finally, Chapter III is based on joint work with Rohit Lamba. We consider the problem of optimal contracting where the agent has dynamic private information, which follows a Markov process. In each period, a monopolistic principal sells a nondurable good to the agent and she commits to the contract she made in the initial period. The emerging information costs prevent first-best contracts whenever there is persistency in the agent’s type. This thesis provides a strategy on how to obtain the optimal deterministic contract in dynamic principal-agent models with Markovian type realizations. We see that the usual approach with only local downward binding incentive compatibility constraints does not work for highly persistent type realizations and for large differences in discounting. Furthermore, I show in which situations we with certainty can exclude stochastic contracts.

Submitted by JOSIANE SANTOS DE OLIVEIRA (josianeso) on 2018-12-14T13:49:27Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Gedielson Ozório Pinto_.pdf: 1509977 bytes, checksum: 57669947b8ee5dd3d0b7d9e539addc15 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-14T13:49:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gedielson Ozório Pinto_.pdf: 1509977 bytes, checksum: 57669947b8ee5dd3d0b7d9e539addc15 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-20 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Um dos principais desafios de produtores de soja é a conciliação entre bons desempenhos econômicos de curto prazo com bons desempenhos ambientais e econômicos a longo prazo. Sendo assim, é imprescindível pensar na sustentabilidade das empresas agrícolas levando em conta o aspecto temporal. Neste sentido, verifica-se que a necessidade por apresentar bons resultados imediatos pode acabar induzindo o produtor rural a ignorar algumas práticas conservacionistas importantes no cultivo da soja que podem gerar resultados positivos tanto ambientais quanto econômicos ao longo do tempo. Sendo assim, este trabalho buscou realizar uma análise da relação entre as práticas conservacionistas utilizadas na produção da soja e as tensões intertemporais referentes à sustentabilidade inerentes à atividade agrícola. Para isto, foi estimado o nível de eficiência que uma amostra de 40 produtores de soja obtivera na safra de 2016/2017 através da análise envoltória de dados (DEA), bem como, foram identificadas algumas práticas gerenciais dos produtores benchmark e analisados os alvos e folgas dos produtores ineficientes. Através do teste Mann-Whitney, foi verificado o comportamento dos escores de eficiências obtidos para cada produtor de soja mediante a adoção de práticas conservacionistas. Foi possível observar que a eficiência técnica daqueles produtores que adotaram as práticas conservacionistas foi significativamente superior à aqueles que não adotaram estas práticas em seu processo de produção. Deste modo, os achados deste trabalho podem sinalizar que, através do uso destas práticas conservacionistas na produção da soja, é possível reduzir as tensões existentes entre decisões de curto e de longo prazo, visto que, além dos resultados econômicos e ambientais, existe a possibilidade de aumentar significativamente o nível de eficiência técnica na produção da soja, reduzindo insumos e minimizando impactos ambientais de longo prazo, maximizando, assim, os resultados econômicos de curto prazo. / One of the main challenges for soy producers can be the reconciliation between good short-term economic performance with good long-term environmental and economic performance. Therefore, it is essential to think about the sustainability of agricultural companies considering the temporal aspect. In this way, it is verified that the necessity to present good immediate results can carry through inducing the rural producer to ignore some important conservation practices in the cultivation of the soybean, that can generate positive results both environmental and economic over time. Thus, this project searched to analyze the relationship between conservation practices used in soybean production and the intertemporal tensions related to sustainability inherent to agricultural activity. For this, it was estimated the level of efficiency that 40 soybean producers worked in the 2016/2017 harvest through the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). From the Mann-Whitney test, it was verified the behavior of the efficiency scores obtained for each soy producer through the adoption of conservation practices. It was possible to observe a significantly greater difference in the technical efficiency of those producers who adopted conservation practices than those who did not adopt these practices in their production process. Thus, the findings of this project may indicate that through the use of these conservation practices in the production of soybeans it is possible to reduce the tensions existing between short and long term decisions, given that, besides the economic and environmental results, there is a possibility to increase significantly the level of technical efficiency in soy production, reducing inputs and minimizing long-term environmental impacts, thus maximizing short-term economic results.