This thesis begins as a study for an observatory and ends as a place to simply look upward. Architecture is explored through questions of model and projection. These questions become more and more discernable as the model is built and photographed. The model is an analogue to a potential building. The drawings reveal the projective nature of architectural form. The photographs of the model capture surfaces as elements of architecture. At this point, the work is free to pose its own questions. / Master of Architecture

abstract: Principles of climate mitigation in environmental ethics often draw on either considerations of fairness and forward-looking concerns, or on justice and backward-looking concerns. That is, according to some theorists, considerations of the current distribution of climate benefits and burdens are foremost, while others take repairing historic wrongs as paramount. Some theorists integrate considerations of fairness and justice to formulate hybrid climate principles. Such an integrative approach is promising particularly in the context of environmental harm to indigenous subsistence peoples, who are among those suffering the most from climate change. I argue that existing integrative climate principles tend not to sufficiently emphasize considerations of backward-looking justice. This is a problem for indigenous peoples seeking reparations for environmental harm and violations of their human rights. Specifically, indigenous people in the Arctic suffer a cultural harm from climate change as they lose their land, and their way of life, to erosion, cementing their status as climate refugees. I argue that the current climate situation facing Native Arctic people is unfair according to Rawls' second principle of justice. In addition, the situation is unjust as indigenous people suffer from emissions by others and few attempts are made for reparations. Thus, Rawlsian fairness combined with reparative justice provide a befitting theoretical framework. I conclude that an acceptable climate principle will adequately integrate considerations of both fairness and justice, both forward-looking and backward-looking considerations. / Dissertation/Thesis / M.A. Philosophy 2014

Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir as metodologias de estimação da PD utilizadas na indústria financeira. Além disso, contextualizar a aplicação do trabalho ao IFRS9 e seu direcionamento para o tema de Risco de Crédito. Historicamente os grandes bancos múltiplos utilizam variadas metodologias econométricas para modelar a Probabilidade de Descumprimento (PD),um dos métodos mais tradicionais é a regressão logística, entretanto com a necessidade do cálculo da Perda Esperada de Crédito através do IFRS9, se torna necessário mudar o paradigma de estimação para uma abordagem forward-looking, isto está sendo interpretado por muitas instituições e consultorias como a inclusão de fatores e variáveis projetadas dentro do processo de estimação, ou seja, não serão utilizados apenas os dados históricos para prever o descumprimento ou inadimplência. Dentro deste contexto será proposto uma abordagem que une a estimação da Probabilidade de Descumprimento com a inclusão de um fator foward-looking. / This paper aims to discuss the methodologies used to estimate the Probability Of Default used in the financial industry. In addition, contextualize the application of the work to IFRS9 requirements and its targeting to the Credit Risk theme. Historically large multi-banks use a variety of econometric methodologies to model the Probability of Default, one of the more traditional methods is logistic regression. However, with the need to calculate the expected credit loss through IFRS9, it becomes necessary to change the estimation paradigm to a forwardlooking approach, this is being interpreted by many institutions and consultancies companies as the inclusion of factors and variables projected within the estimation process, that is, not only historical data are used to predict the default. Within this context will be proposed an approach that joins the estimation of Probability of Default with the inclusion of a forward-looking factor.

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:44:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Arquivototal.pdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-13 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This paper estimates a reaction function with forward-looking time-varying parameters for changes in the Brazilian monetary policy under inflation targeting regime. As the policy rule has endogenous regressors, the conventional Kalman filter can t be applied. Thus, a two-step procedure of the type Heckman (1976) is used to estimate the hyperparameters consistent model. The results show that: i) there is strong empirical evidence of endogeneity of the regressors of monetary policy rule, ii) the expected interest rate was above 10% throughout the analysis period to an average of 11%; iii) response the Selic rate to inflation varies considerably throughout the period and has shown a declining trend, iv) the response of interest rates relative to inflation deviation from the target with the principle of Taylor; v) the coefficient of smoothing rate interest has been constant throughout the period; vi) that the BCB had in much of the period analyzed an aversion recession by allowing inflation above target. / Este trabalho estima uma função de reação forward-looking com parâmetros variando no tempo para verificar mudanças na condução da política monetária brasileira sob o regime de metas de inflação. Como a regra de política apresenta regressores endógenos, o filtro de Kalman convencional não pode ser aplicado. Diante disso, um procedimento em dois passos do tipo de Heckman (1976) é utilizado para estimação consistente dos hiperparâmetros do modelo. Os resultados mostram que: i) há forte evidência empírica de endogeneidade dos regressores da regra de política monetária; ii) que a taxa de juros esperada esteve acima de 10% durante todo o período analisado, tendo uma média de 11%; iii) a resposta da taxa Selic à inflação varia consideravelmente ao longo do período e tem mostrado uma tendência decrescente; iv) a resposta da taxa de juros em relação ao desvio da inflação a meta respeita o princípio de Taylor; v) o coeficiente de suavização da taxa de juros foi constante durante todo o período analisado; vi) que o BCB teve em boa parte do período analisado uma aversão recessão, permitindo uma inflação acima da meta.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir as metodologias de estimação da PD utilizadas na indústria financeira. Além disso, contextualizar a aplicação do trabalho ao IFRS9 e seu direcionamento para o tema de Risco de Crédito. Historicamente os grandes bancos múltiplos utilizam variadas metodologias econométricas para modelar a Probabilidade de Descumprimento (PD),um dos métodos mais tradicionais é a regressão logística, entretanto com a necessidade do cálculo da Perda Esperada de Crédito através do IFRS9, se torna necessário mudar o paradigma de estimação para uma abordagem forward-looking, isto está sendo interpretado por muitas instituições e consultorias como a inclusão de fatores e variáveis projetadas dentro do processo de estimação, ou seja, não serão utilizados apenas os dados históricos para prever o descumprimento ou inadimplência. Dentro deste contexto será proposto uma abordagem que une a estimação da Probabilidade de Descumprimento com a inclusão de um fator foward-looking. / This paper aims to discuss the methodologies used to estimate the Probability Of Default used in the financial industry. In addition, contextualize the application of the work to IFRS9 requirements and its targeting to the Credit Risk theme. Historically large multi-banks use a variety of econometric methodologies to model the Probability of Default, one of the more traditional methods is logistic regression. However, with the need to calculate the expected credit loss through IFRS9, it becomes necessary to change the estimation paradigm to a forwardlooking approach, this is being interpreted by many institutions and consultancies companies as the inclusion of factors and variables projected within the estimation process, that is, not only historical data are used to predict the default. Within this context will be proposed an approach that joins the estimation of Probability of Default with the inclusion of a forward-looking factor.

An introduction to Alice scholarship, including a brief biography of the author Charles Lutwidge Dodgson, under the pseudonym Lewis Carroll, as well as the subject matter. An examination of Alice's Adventures in Wonderland's genre, as well as an in-depth analysis of the text as a children's story.

受到封包網路原本忽略時效性特性之影響，對時效性要求極高的多媒體網路服務，如Voice over IP (VoIP)以及Video on Demand (VoD)在All-IP整合的核心網路上提供時，其服務品質低於傳統之電路交換網路。 封包在網路的傳遞過程中受到各種因素之影響，於到達目的地時，可能會造成long delay time，high jitter或packet loss，而在目的地端幾乎已經沒有補救機會，故而如果能在傳遞的過程中，依封包的時效性及重要性做適度的次序調動(rescheduling)而不要依序傳遞(FIFO)，讓過遲的封包提前送出，而將有時間餘裕的封包稍緩送出，如此截長補短，可提高網路效能及整體QoS滿意度。 我們在BBQ (Budget-Base QoS)的架構下發展一套簡單而有效的方法，在單佇列(Single Preemptive Queue)及多佇列(Multiple FIFO Queue)的router架構下，根據封包時效性及重要性賦予合適的profit function，並參考封包在後續路程上各router的負載狀態以便能更精確預估封包是否能及時到達目的地並調整profit function參數以調整封包的送出順序，如此能提高排程的效能。 我們先對單一服務等級的封包排程進行研究，獲得參數調整之技巧，再根據其結果設計多服務等級的封包排程方法，其重點在於如何調配profit function給不同的服務等級。 我們藉由NS-2模擬模擬器進行實驗，評估本方法的效能，實驗結果顯示我們的方法可以較每個router僅根據自身所知的資訊進行排程更可以有效提高網路效能，且能對不同的服務等級做差異化處理以提高整體QoS滿意度。最後在多等級服務的實驗環境及評估指標下，網路高負載的情況，本方法與Simulated Priority Queue排程演算法比較可以提升34%的整體滿意度。 / Running time sensitive multimedia services such as Voice-over-IP (VoIP) and Video-on-Demand (VoD) on All-IP networks may have lower quality than that on the traditional circuit-switched networks. Influenced by many factors, packets transported on a packet-switched network, may suffer from long delay time, large jitter and high packet loss rate. When a packet arrives its destination late, there is no way to correct the problem. Thus, it will be beneficial if routers could forward packets base on their timeliness and importance, instead of using First-In-First-Out (FIFO) service plan, giving important late packets proper precedence. The overall QoS satisfaction will be improved significantly. In this thesis, we develop a simple and effective scheduling policy based on this concept for the environments where packets have predefined hop-by-hop time schedule. Routers are assumed in two different queue architectures: ideal Single Preemptive Queue router and practical Multiple FIFO Queue router. To forward a packet, a router first assigns a suitable profit function to the packet based on its timeliness and importance as well as the loading status in its succeeding routers along its predefined traveling path, then inserts the packet into an appropriate position in the output queues. Taking the loading status of succeeding routers into account could predict more accurately whether the packet could reach its destination on time or not. We conduct the research for the single service class environments first to learn the characteristics of this new scheduling policy, and then for the multiple service class environments based on the knowledge acquired. The challenge is to find the best way to assign proper profit functions to different classes of packets in order to utilize resources more wisely, e.g. urgent and important packets get precedence. We evaluate the performance of this approach by simulation using NS-2 network simulator. Simulation results show that our approach outperforms our previous version which doesn't take the loading status of succeeding routers into account. Furthermore, our approach can outperform the Simulated Priority Queue by at least 34% under heavy load and our evaluation metrics.

Drawing upon my eleven-month ethnographic fieldwork in two business organisations in Bangkok, Thailand, this thesis explores Thai women office workers consumption of makeup and clothes at work. What emerges from this thesis is that a claim to beauty as a reason for which women are engaged in the consumption of makeup and clothes is not always valid. Grounded in theoretical discussions and empirical findings, I argue that the women s consumption of makeup and clothes is not always in the pursuit of beauty, but rather the pursuit of looking good. While beauty is perceived as an innate quality of the body, looking good entails the materialisation of the outer body through consumption practices in an attempt to achieve an ideal look. I introduce a concept of looking good practices. Looking good practices demonstrate the ways in which women office workers exert agency in mobilising their outer bodies to achieve an appropriate appearance at work. I argue that looking good practices entail a process of social learning. The women office workers learn to look good through the process by which they look at other women, participate in the practices shared amongst themselves, negotiate the meanings of appropriateness and reify such meanings through their consumption of makeup and clothes. By sharing meanings and practices, the women office workers inevitably participate in looking good practices, which, I argue, are social practices. My research also demonstrates how, through their engagement in the consumption of makeup and clothes, the women office workers aestheticise their bodies to be situated in the aesthetic workplace.

The aim of this study is to investigate how teachers say they give and perceive forward-looking feedback (feedforward) on pupils’ texts in grades three and four. To collect material for this purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted with six teachers in the early years of compulsory school. The material from the interviews was analysed with the help of the mid-range coding method. The analysis was based on the two theoretical premises for the study, the sociocultural perspective and the formative attitude. The result shows that the teachers use several methods and devices for forward-looking feedback on the pupils’ process and on their first draft. These included questioning, assignment, checklist and digital tools. The study also revealed three central aspects of the teachers’ perceptions of their forward-looking feedback: shortage of time, organizational conditions and the pupils’ maturity. In view of the current lacuna in research on forward-looking feedback in the early years of compulsory school, the results of the study can contribute to inspiring, in-depth and effective knowledge and tools for practising forward-looking feedback.

Estimation of the covariance matrix of asset returns is a key component of portfolio optimization. Inherent in any estimation technique is the capacity to inaccurately reflect current market conditions. Typical of Markowitz portfolio optimization theory, which we use as the basis for our analysis, is to assume that asset returns are stationary. This assumption inevitably causes an optimized portfolio to fail during a market crash since estimates of covariance matrices of asset returns no longer re ect current conditions. We use the market crash of 2008 to exemplify this fact. A current industry standard benchmark for estimation is the Ledoit covariance matrix, which attempts to adjust a portfolio's aggressiveness during varying market conditions. We test this technique against the CALM (Covariance Adjustment for Liability Management Method), which incorporates forward-looking signals for market volatility to reduce portfolio variance, and assess under certain criteria how well each model performs during recent market crash. We show that CALM should be preferred against the sample convariance matrix and Ledoit covariance matrix under some reasonable weight constraints.