Title: An outline of the development of the Czech sport financing after 1989 Objectives: The main aim of this thesis is to analyse the development of the czech sport financing from the selected resources after 1989 till the present situation and it's prospect included in The concept sports funding 2016 - 2025 SPORT 2025 Methods: The basic method used in this thesis is the method of document analysis. Fundamental documents include legislative documents, especially The Lottery Act and its updating and The Act on Promotion of Sports. Aditional resources represent analytic and comparative studies prepared by ČOV, ČUS and MŠMT conception. Another method is statistic analysis of quantitative data, in form of termporal lines, which are processed into basic charts and diagrams. Results: In recent 25 years have been significant changes in sports funding established. The turning point is considered the year 2011, when czech sport lost two stable financial resources. Primarily the company Sazka, a.s. went bankrupt, secondarily the amendment of the lottery act was accepted and has discontinued offtakes for public utility objects. Since then an optimal sports funding system is sought. State sports support shows a long-term downward trend and belongs to the lowest rank in the EU comparison. efforts to improve...

Since 1993 when the first lottery ticket was sold in Georgia, over 1.4 million students have received over $5.4 billion in grants and scholarships (more than any other merit-based program in the country) to attend colleges in Georgia through the Helping Outstanding Pupils Educationally (HOPE) Scholarship program. Students who graduate from high school with a B average in a college preparatory curriculum can receive tuition, HOPE approved fees, and a book allowance of up to $300 per year at public colleges in Georgia. The purpose of this study was to determine if there was an identifiable profile of the academically successful associate degree seeking HOPE Scholarship recipient at a 2-year college within the university system of Georgia. For the purposes of this study, academic success was defined as persistence towards graduation and retention of the HOPE Scholarship. Variables analyzed include high school grade point average, high school attended, composite SAT score, major, ethnicity, gender, other grant aid received, student loans received, and credit hours earned at credit hour checkpoints. Using the variables listed above, 2 research questions were posed. Is there a predictive model of a HOPE Scholarship recipient who is likely to retain the HOPE Scholarship, and is there a predictive model of a HOPE Scholarship recipient who is likely to earn a degree? These questions were analyzed using the population of first-time, associate degree seeking students at a 2-year college in 1998. The results of the analysis showed that while composite SAT scores, high school grade point averages, and GPAs at 60 attempted hours partially explained the success of HOPE Scholars, a clear model was not established that would identify students upon entry to college, or even partially through their academic careers, who were going to retain the HOPE Scholarship and earn a degree. The findings of this limited study support the theories that there are other factors such as student engagement that are less easily quantified that play a significant role in student persistence.

本研究以投資風格為主軸,探討2001年七月到2010年六月間台灣股市的股票區分價值股(value stock)與成長股(growth stock),並篩選樂透型股票(lottery type stock)其具備低股價與高的公司特有風險,探討整體台灣股市依據相關分類的報酬率與風險並探討影響投資報酬率與風險的主要原因。結論如下: 以市價/淨值比、本益比與殖利率分類上，投資績效是價值股優於成長股，以市價/淨值比的價值效益最明顯,同時市價/淨值比之價值股表現亦高於其它分類組合。市價/淨值比、本益比與殖利率分類的二因子分類, 投資績效是價值股優於成長股，以市價/淨值與本益比兩因子做分類的價值效益最明顯。同時市價/淨值與本益比之價值股表現亦高於其它分類組合。不論多頭或空頭市場, 價值型的投資績效投擊敗成長型,空頭時期的價值型投資相對較抗跌,而成長型股票跌幅較市場大。 風險衡量上，樂透型股票的風險最高、成長股風險次之，價值股最低，但成長型投資績效較差，因此高風險不一定有高報酬。樂透型股票於此期間有異常超額報酬,報酬率高於價值型股票,但其風險(標準差)高於任何分類投資組合,夏普指數(每單位風險所獲得的超額報酬)則以(市價/淨值比、殖利率)分類的價值型組合最佳,主要原因為2001年六月股市屬於低檔,此期間加權股價指數上漲的50.09%,除金融海嘯期間股市大跌外,樂透型股票具備高波動性所以期間股市具備超額報酬。

本研究以Chen-Chie（Chen and Chie, 2007）所設計的代理人基模型，探討所得分配對彩券銷售額的影響。這篇論文考量了兩種彩券參與函數，一種是採用模糊推論的方法來呈現代理人購買彩券的決定，在此方式下，並未將可能中奬的期望效果納入。另一種則是以預期效用理論為主軸，並且加入主觀認知的中獎機率。除了彩券參與度外，根據Chen and Chie (2007)的設計，還考慮到兩個購買彩券經驗的觀點，分別是自我意識選號及個體間的獨立性。模型中代理人參數並未固定，取而代之的，是讓代理人具有自動產生參數的能力，所有行為的參數是以遺傳演算法取得其適應性。當代理人進行遺傳演算（社會學習）時，代理人對策略的學習會依照區間的設定，進一步作區域性社會學習及全域社會學習。本論文彙集了上述設計，提供了四種彩券市場行為模型，配合不同的所得分配進行模擬，並且利用統計檢定比較其統計量的變化，分析所得分配對彩券銷售額的影響。 / This study addresses the impact of income distribution on lottery sales using an agent-based modeling approach, specifically, the Chen-Chie model (Chen and Chie, 2007). Two kinds of lottery participation function are considered in this thesis. One is more heuristic and does not require agents’ expectations of the odds. In this case, we use the fuzzy inference system to represent agents’ heuristics. The other explicitly takes agents’ expectations of the odds into account, and a formal expected utility maximization approach is taken. In addition to lottery participation, following Chen and Chie (2007), we also consider two additional empirical aspects of lottery plays, namely, conscious selection and state-dependent utilities. The parameters of agents are not fixed; instead, they are autonomous and all behavioral parameters are adaptive via genetic algorithms. While the population genetic algorithms (social learning) are applied, an idea of nearest neighbors learning is used to further distinguish the global social learning from the local social learning. These setups together give us four behavioral models of lottery markets. We then simulate each of these four markets with different income distribution, and then compare their statistic behavior with statistical test to examine the overall effect of income distribution to lottery sales.

社會大眾之發票與零錢捐獻是民間社福團體所仰賴的收入來源之一，但近年來由於統一發票新政策的推行，加上大眾的消費行為開始改變，導致民眾捐獻的機會與意願逐漸下滑，而影響社福團體之公益運作。本研究的目的是為了提出一項創新的經營模式解決此捐獻缺乏的社會問題，藉由結合發票、公益彩券制度、零錢捐獻之行為、連鎖零售業者與政府公益組織之資源，賦予公益行為一個報酬機制，提升大眾捐獻意願，以擴大臺灣社會之捐獻基礎與價值。 為了尋求可行之商業模式，本研究透過市場需求分析，調查目前臺灣消費者之生活趨勢、統一發票政策推行現況與社福團體之困境，並藉由問卷調查、訪談社福團體與各類潛在消費者深入確認實際需求與創新服務之可行性。最後，經由前述分析，本研究提出一個能滿足社會需求並能讓服務參與者共同獲益的解決方案，其中包括消費者的參與方式、廠商合作模式、利潤分配方式，以及針對不同時期之目標族群研擬之營運計畫。 / Receipt lottery and donation box play important roles in the source of income for social welfare organizations (SWOs) nowadays. However, after the reform of receipt policies in recent years, the receipt taking behaviors of consumers have changed. In general, the willingness of consumers to donate receipt has been declining. This decrease of donation seriously damaged the operation of the SWOs. The purpose of this research is to propose an innovative business model to solve this social problem. By connecting the resources of retail chain business and government, the business model initiates the incentives of major consumers (self-interested and reputation seeking) to contribute the charity in the process of consumption based on the empirical study of the consumers’ behaviors of donating receipt /change and purchasing lottery.

隨著國內不少優秀的棒球選手進入美國職棒聯盟，而且運動彩券也於民國97年正式發行，除了創造專業運動評論的需求，也吸引了國人對於運動彩券投注的興趣，因此我們希望透過分析歷史資料來預測棒球賽事。 本論文中，我們從球隊得分的觀點切入，建立棒球賽事的預測模型，期望透過預測兩支球隊的得分，來推論賽事結果，並可當作投注運彩的策略。 我們的預測模型結合了類神經網路與迴歸分析的理論，首先透過類神經網路去預測球隊的打擊表現，接著利用迴歸分析的技術，並參考Pete Palmer提出的Batting Runs公式，為每支球隊建立專屬的得分公式，然後將預測的打擊表現套用得分公式，計算球隊的預測得分。最後根據預測結果來模擬投注棒球運動彩券，並分析報酬率。 實作時，我們採用美國棒球聯盟近三年之資料來測試我們的方法，實驗結果顯示，我們預測的結果能獲得不錯的報酬率。 / There are many outstanding Taiwanese baseball players who joined the MLB in the USA, and the sport lottery has been issued in 2008. These have not only generated the demand for professional commentaries on various sports but also attracted numerous interests in sport lottery playing. Hence, we hope to predict the future baseball game results through analyzing the historical data. In this thesis, we started from the scoring mechanism and developed a model to predict baseball games. We used the predicted results, together with the sports lottery playing regulations, to find the lottery winning strategies. We used artificial neural networks and regression analysis in our model. Through the neural networks we can predict the batting behaviors of each team. Then, we used the regression analysis and the batting runs formula, proposed by Pete Palmer, to establish the scoring formula for each team. Combining the batting behaviors and the scoring formula, we can predict the scores of the future baseball games. Finally, we used the predicted scores to estimate the winning rate of sports lottery on these baseball games. We used the materials in the past three years of MLB in USA to verify our method. The experimental results show that we can obtain good winning rate.

在代理人基計算建模(agent-based computational modeling)被拿來廣泛應用的同時，多數學者發現模擬的結果會高度取決於人工適應性個體的設計方式或者是個體的學習方法上，所以如何挑選合適的演算法就成為我們應用代理人基計算建模時首要面臨的課題。 本文挑選了兩個常出現於文獻當中但是卻甚少一起比較的演算法，分別是遺傳演算法(genetic algorithms)與強化學習(reinforcement learning)。我們透過將演算法與學習理論(learning theory)結合的方式，歸納出這兩個高使用頻率的演算法各自有其適合描述的個體行為以及議題，最後並套用到代理人基彩券市場當中，而模擬的結果也證實符合真實彩券市場上多數人學習特性(個人式學習)的強化學習比起遺傳演算法更能完整地捕捉彩券市場上的特性。

Submitted by Eduardo Igreja (eduigreja@gmail.com) on 2018-04-12T17:45:03Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Qual é o preço da ação-loteria - Eduardo Igreja.pdf: 724444 bytes, checksum: bcda476394ddd2f0ba0080acd3f680b1 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Almeida (maria.socorro@fgv.br) on 2018-04-12T19:08:13Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Qual é o preço da ação-loteria - Eduardo Igreja.pdf: 724444 bytes, checksum: bcda476394ddd2f0ba0080acd3f680b1 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-12T19:09:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Qual é o preço da ação-loteria - Eduardo Igreja.pdf: 724444 bytes, checksum: bcda476394ddd2f0ba0080acd3f680b1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-12-19 / A lottery-type stock is a stock that presents a small probability of achieving a big positive return. If investors have utility functions based on Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory, they overestimate low probabilities. Other behavioral bias may occur when investors, analyzing data sample in retrospective, use peak-end rule, focusing their attention in the maximum point (PEAK) and at the end of sample (end). Sell the first quartile of stocks ranked by PEAK of daily returns in the last month (the 25% which had the higher PEAKS) and buy the last quartile of stocks (the 25% which had the lower PEAKS) is a profitable strategy with statistical significance (t-statistic of 2,38) in the 2000-2017 data sample of Brazilian stock market. These findings are not explained by 3-factor model of Fama-French (6,5% alpha), momentum, skewness, volatility, or traditional value-indicators, such as price-to-earnings and book-tomarket ratio / Ação-loteria é definida como uma ação que apresenta uma pequena probabilidade de alcançar um grande retorno positivo. Se os investidores possuem função utilidade segundo a Teoria da Perspectiva (Prospect Theory) de Kahneman e Tversky (1979), estes investidores sobre-estimam pequenas probabilidades. Outro viés comportamental pode ocorrer quando investidores, ao analisarem em retrospecto um período de dados, utilizam a heurística do pico-fim, concentrando-se nos momentos de máxima magnitude (PICO) e no final da amostra (fim). Vender o primeiro quartil de ações ordenadas por PICO de retorno diário no mês anterior (as 25% que obtiveram os maiores PICOS) e comprar o último quartil (as 25% com menores PICOS) é uma estratégia com ganhos estatisticamente significantes (t-estatístico de 2,38) no período de 2000 a 2017 no mercado de ações brasileiro. Os resultados não são explicados pelo modelo de Três Fatores de Fama-French (alfa de 6,5% ao ano), momento, assimetria, volatilidade, ou múltiplos tradicionalmente associados a valor, como razão lucro-preço e preço-valor patrimonial.

Tidigare studier i USA har påvisat ett positivt samband mellan individuella investerare som köper lotter och deras benägenhet att köpa aktier med liknande karaktärsdrag. Enligt klassisk finansteori bör inte individuella investerare äga så kallade lotteriaktier då de tenderar att generera negativ avkastning – trots detta äger många individuella investerare lotteriaktier. I denna studie undersöker vi om detta samband kan förklaras med hjälp av socioekonomiska faktorer som arbetslöshet, utbildningsnivå och spelutgifter på länsnivå. Studien behandlar uteslutande svenska data för socioekonomiska faktorer som utgörs av Sveriges befolkning, aktiedata som utgörs av dagliga stängningspriser för samtliga marknadsnoterade aktiebolag, och aktieägardata för samtliga marknadsnoterade aktiebolag som utgörs av svenska individuella investerare. Vidare är samtliga data insamlade från legitima datakällor för perioden 2012–2015. För att möjliggöra undersökandet av vilka individer som äger lotteriaktier väljer vi att definiera lotteriaktier i enlighet med tidigare studier, där lotteriaktier definieras som aktier med lågt pris, hög idiosynkratisk volatilitet och hög idiosynkratisk skevhet. Dessa egenskaper har visat sig attrahera riskbenägna investerare trots sin låga sannolikhet till hög vinst. Studien utgår från teorier inom behavioral finance där individers irrationella beslutsfattanden belyses. Teorier som prospect theory och cumulative prospect theory förklarar hur individer värderar vinster och förluster olika, samt hur individer tenderar att överskatta små sannolikheter och underskatta stora sannolikheter. Dessa teorier skapar ökad förståelse för varför individer agerar som de gör vid beslutsfattanden på finansiella marknader. Dessa teorier ställs i kontrast mot klassiska finansteorier som förutsätter att individer är rationella, kalkylerande och inte påverkas av irrationellt beteende eller känslor. Studiens resultat visar att i de län där antingen spelutgifter per capita är höga eller spelutgifter per nettoinkomst är höga är även andelen lotteriaktier hög, vilket överensstämmer med tidigare forskning i USA. Det visar sig även att antalet lotteriaktieägare och deras portföljexponering mot lotteriaktier ökar kraftigt under perioden, samtidigt som antal aktieägare i Sverige hålls relativt konstant under perioden, vilket indikerar ökande irrationalitet bland svenska individuella investerare på svenska finansiella marknader. / In this thesis, we examine individual investors preferences for lottery-type stocks between January 2012 and December 2015. Lottery-type stocks have shown to have similar characteristics to state lotteries through its low price, high idiosyncratic volatility and high idiosyncratic skewness in previous studies. These characteristics attract risk-seeking investors who aim for a small chance to win big. In detail, we analyze if there is a relationship between socioeconomic factors like unemployment rate, education, gambling expenditures per capita, gambling expenditures per net income and the propensity to hold lottery-type stocks in the individual stock portfolio in Sweden. The analysis is based on aggregated data of Swedish counties and the study is unique in regard to the Swedish stock market. Our results show that there is a positive significant relationship between gambling expenditures per capita, gambling expenditures per net income and a higher proportion of lottery-type stocks in the individuals stock portfolio within a county. These results show that socioeconomic factors that induce greater expenditures in lotteries are associated with greater investments in lottery-type stocks. Finally, our findings contradict the efficient market hypothesis and could thus be a contribution to the field of behavioral finance.

By using the concept of forms in this analysis of “The Renegade,” postwar domestic life is analyzed for the uncanny. By locating repetitions in domestic life, between characters, and in speech, situations are identified where the uncanny moves into the domestic. As a result, the perception of reality of the protagonist, Mrs. Walpole, is damaged, reiterating the impossibility of sanity in a postwar housewife’s domestic life.