After the recent world financial crisis, macroprudential policy tools have started to play an important role in maintaining financial stability. In many countries, the tools have been extensively used only in recent years and their effectiveness is often difficult to assess. Using an index as a proxy for policy tools is one of ways to measure their impact. In this thesis, a new index capturing, in contrast with other studies, also an intensity factor, is constructed. Results are mostly in accordance with economic intuition and existing studies and suggest that indices constructed in an equivalent way can help to understand the impact of policies on changes in housing prices and credit volumes. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords macroprudential policy, systemic risk, house prices growth, credit growth Author's e-mail Lucie.Wdowyczynova@hotmail.com Supervisor's e-mail Simona.Malovana@gmail.com

The diploma thesis is mainly focused on the housing market and central bank's (supervisory authority's) potential reactions to risks arising from it. The thesis provides a broader perspective of the housing market so that the first part is devoted to the liquidity surplus as it is closely connected with the housing market. The next part of the thesis focuses on housing price bubbles and subsequent bursts as well as the tools of the central bank (supervisory authority) to mitigate such risks. It is discussed whether using monetary policy to affect house prices that do not reflect fundamentals is advisable. Macroprudential policy with its tools is introduced as an alternative. Special attention is paid to the Czech housing market.

This dissertation argues that financial cycles are different for advanced economies and emerging countries. The main underlying reason is the different financial development that makes for instability in emeging markets which is pronounced by more intensive and amplified financial cycle. As such, even the policy implications are different.

Este trabajo de investigación se enfoca en encontrar la relación existente entre la acción de política de desdolarización del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú y el ratio de dolarización de los créditos hipotecarios en el mercado financiero peruano como mecanismo de Política Monetaria. Para ello, se estima mediante metodologías de cointegración empíricas como regresiones lineales y modelos de corrección de errores, con la finalidad de demostrar la existencia de una relación entre la política implementada por el BCRP y el ratio de dolarización de créditos hipotecarios. Los resultados encontrados para el período entre Julio del 2010 a Diciembre del 2019 demuestran que existe una relación negativa de la política frente al ratio de dolarización de los créditos hipotecarios; es decir, el programa de desdolarización del BCRP si tuvo un efecto significativo sobre la dolarización de los créditos hipotecarios en el periodo asignado. Además se evidencia que existe una relación sostenida de equilibrio de largo plazo entre las variables de estudio. / This research focuses on finding the relationship between the de-dollarization policy action of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the dollarization of mortgage loans in the Peruvian financial market like mechanism of Monetary politics. For this, it is estimated using empirical cointegration methodologies such as linear regressions and error correction models, in order to demonstrate the existence of a relationship between the policy implemented by the BCRP and the ratio of dollarization of mortgage loans. The results found for the period between July 2010 to December 2019 show that there is a negative relationship between the policy and the dollarization ratio of the mortgage loans; in other words, the BCRP's de-dollarization program did have a significant effect on the dollarization of mortgage loans in the assigned period. Also, it is evident that there is a sustained long-term equilibrium relationship between the used variables. / Trabajo de investigación

This thesis examines the effectiveness of macroprudential policies on reducing housing price growth in the international database of 56 countries with the use of GMM and fixed effects between 2000 and 2017. The macroprudential index is added to the dynamic panel data model where the housing price index is regressed on housing price determinants as the economic growth or unemployment rate. The analysis is also conducted on the sample of countries with a higher market share of owners with a mortgage as there is a higher opportunity to control the housing market through the credit channel. Nevertheless, results show that we do not have enough evidence to state that macroprudential policies curb house price booms. Contrarily, the effect seems to work in the opposite direction which is probably caused by a reverse causality between the growth of real estate prices and the implementation of macroprudential tools. The debt-to-income restriction is the only tool that decreases housing price growth according to the fixed effects model. Detailed counterfactual analysis of the Czech market proposes only a slight impact of the loan-to-value measure on the apartment price development according to one out of four predictions. 1

La crise financière de 2008-2009 a conduit à reconsidérer la relation entre politique monétaire et stabilité financière, soulignant la nécessité pour les banques centrales d’être plus attentives aux risques financiers. Cette crise a également mis en évidence les limites du cadre de régulation (micro)prudentielle existant, renforçant ainsi l’importance d’une approche macroprudentielle visant à contenir le risque systémique. La présente thèse s’articule autour de ces questions. L’objectif est d’analyser dans quelle mesure un cadre de politique monétaire avec pour objectif principal la stabilité des prix (tel le ciblage d’inflation), pourrait accentuer le risque d’instabilité financière. Il s’agit en outre de souligner et discuter le rôle que peuvent jouer les politiques monétaire et macroprudentielle pour assurer et renforcer la stabilité du secteur financier (Chapitre I). Les résultats de l’analyse suggèrent que les banques centrales cibleuses d’inflation ont été mieux à même de contenir les conséquences de la récente crise financière (Chapitre II). Cependant, il semble que le risque d’instabilité financière soit plus fort au sein des pays émergents cibleurs d’inflation (comparé aux non-cibleurs), malgré les réponses des banques centrales aux déséquilibres financiers (Chapitre III). Ceci remet en cause l’efficacité de la stratégie du leaning against the wind. Nos conclusions montrent que cette stratégie génère un conflit d’objectif entre stabilité macroéconomique et stabilité financière. La mise en place d’un cadre macroprudentiel efficace, associé à une politique monétaire plus sensible aux risques financiers, permettrait de garantir un environnement économique globalement plus stable (Chapitre IV). Par ailleurs, il apparait que les pays émergents cibleurs d’inflation s’appuient sur le contrôle du taux de change pour faire face à la forte vulnérabilité de leur système financier aux chocs externes; ceci en dépit de l’exigence de flexibilité du change que requiert cette stratégie de politique monétaire (Chapitre V). / The 2008/2009 global financial crisis has revived the debate on the concern for financial stability in themonetary policy-making, stressing the need to reconsider the role of central banks in ensuring financialstability. The crisis has also pointed some flaws in the existing (micro) prudential regulation and therelevance to move toward a broader regulatory framework aiming to prevent systemic risk. This thesis isbuilt upon these issues. It investigates the extent to which financial stability may be of particular concernin a context where the main monetary policy objective is inflation stabilization (typically, in an inflationtargeting regime –IT–). It further assesses how the macroprudential framework and monetary policy canbe articulated to ensure the best outcome in terms of macroeconomic and financial stability (Chapter I).The conclusions derived from this work suggest that, faced with the recent global financial turmoil,inflation targeting central banks have been more able to mitigate the shock, certainly thanks to higherpolicy credibility (Chapter II). However, we evidence that IT countries (especially in EMEs) are morefinancially vulnerable than their non-IT counterparts, despite central banks’ response to financial risks(Chapter III). Following the latter conclusion, we investigate more closely the effectiveness of the leaningagainst the wind strategy. We show that such a policy response generates trade-offs between thefinancial and macroeconomic stability objectives of the monetary authorities. The best stabilizationoutcome is achieved when an effective macroprudential framework is implemented, combined withhigher central bank’s concern with financial risks (Chapter IV). Furthermore, we show that in EMEsITers, foreign exchange interventions are used to mitigate their financial vulnerability to external shocks,although the IT regime requires a fully floating exchange rate regime (Chapter V).

[pt] Políticas monetárias alternativas realmente funcionam? Depois da crise financeira e, especialmente, a partir de 2010, a Turquia enfrentou uma conjuntura de alta volatilidade nos fluxos de capital internacional e de deterioração na conta corrente. O Banco Cenral da Turquia decidiu, então, inovar sua maneira de executar a política monetária, introduzindo um novo conjunto de instrumentos e focando nos canais de crédito e câmbio. Este trabalho é um estudo de caso comparativo que avalia a eficácia e o impacto da nova estrutura de política da Turquia sobre suas principais variáveis monetárias. Nós aplicamos dois métodos de controle sintético. Nossas estimações sugerem que inflação e taxa de câmbio não foram consideravelmente afetadas. Apesar de um desvio inicial nas direções desejadas, os efeitos de dissiparam no prazo de um ano. Por outro lado, crédito doméstico parece ter entrado em uma trajetória de estabilização. / [en] Do alternative monetary policy frameworks actually work? After the financial crisis and especially in late 2010, Turkey faced a conjecture of high volatility in international capital flows and deteriorating current account. The Central Bank of Turkey decided, then, to innovate the way it executes monetary policy, by introducing a new set of instruments and focusing on credit and exchange rate channels. This paper is a comparative case study that evaluates the effectiveness and impact of Turkey s change in policy framework on its main monetary variables. We apply two different synthetic control methods. Our estimates suggest inflation and exchange rate were not considerably affected. Although there was an initial deviation towards desirable directions, the effects dissipated after one year. On the other hand, domestic credit seem to have presented a stabilization path.

This thesis presents three essays on the main determinants and regulations of international capital flows. The essays contribute to an ongoing significant debate among scholars and practitioners on what determines international capital flows by examining the following issues: Global liquidity, market sentiment and financial stability indices; Global liquidity and capital flow regulations; and Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics. In the first essay, we explore the main determinants of global liquidity, measured using cross-border claims of banks, and establish the link between a variety of financial stability indices and global liquidity. For a sample of 149 countries between 2000 and 2016, we find that Bloomberg Financial Stability Indices are more powerful in explaining global liquidity than FRED Financial Stress Indices and the Euro Area Systemic Stress Composite Indicator (CISS). Moreover, both market sentiment indices, namely the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index are economically and statistically significant on cross-border bank flows. The research provides useful insights on what market sentiment and financial stability indices are better to employ for financial markets surveillance and as such practice of investment management. We argue that anyone interested in using financial stability indices as indicators of financial conditions and the level of financial stress would benefit from tracking several indices and not just one. The second essay examines the effectiveness of capital controls and macroprudential policies as ways to manage the volume of international capital flows, controlling for other determinants. The findings show that capital controls imposed on inflows generally prevail over controls imposed on outflows in reducing the magnitude of capital flows. The results are consistent with the pecking order theory on capital flows and are connected with the riskiness of different asset classes. For a sample of 112 countries over 2000 and 2016, we find that FX and/or countercyclical reserve (RR_REV) and general countercyclical capital buffer requirements (CTC), reserve requirement ratios (RR) and concentration limits (CONC) are the most effective macroprudential policies for managing countries' exposures to global liquidity fluctuations. Moreover, progress is being made to reduce the systemic risks created by systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) using macroprudential policies. The results reflect recent developments in Basel III regulations and shed light on the effective calibration of capital flow regulations to country-specific circumstances. The final essay examines the link between global governance indicators and patterns of gross capital flows, controlling for other determinants. For a sample of 67 countries between 2000 and 2016, we contribute to explain the existence of the Lucas paradox (1990) on "why doesn't capital flow from rich to poor countries" and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle (1980). The findings show that institutional quality rather than the effect of diminishing returns of capital is a key explanation for the Lucas paradox. Finally, we provide new evidence on the relationship between the multidimensional nature of financial development and gross capital flows. The findings show the importance and predominance of financial institutions versus financial markets in the dissemination of international capital flows across counties.

A key lesson learnt from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis was that central banks focused too much on price stability and monetary policy. Financial stability and macroprudential policy were the missing pillars to ensure proper supervision of the financial system. This study examines the challenges faced by central banks in implementing macroprudential policies, while having limited experience as to the effect on their economies. The countercyclical capital buffer is generally considered to be one of the main macroprudential policy instruments. Using South African data, the study furthermore calculates the credit gap which serves as early warning indicator of excessive credit growth and is used to determine the point at which a countercyclical capital buffer should be activated for banks. The calculation of the countercyclical buffer indicates that the credit gap remains below the lower threshold of the buffer add-on. Hence, there is no reason to consider a capital add-on for South African banks as yet. Despite the overall reliability of the credit gap, concerns remain on its reliability under certain circumstances. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)

Cette thèse étudie le rôle du cycle financier dans la macroéconomie. Le chapitre 1 étudie le synchronisme des cycles conjoncturels et des cycles financiers en zone euro. Le chapitre 2 propose une nouvelle mesure de l’écart de production corrigé des facteurs financiers. Le chapitre 3 propose un indicateur simple et intuitif pour quantifier la procyclicité de la politique budgétaire en fonction d’estimations de l’écart de production et du solde budgétaire primaire corrigé des variations conjoncturelles. La thèse montre que la prise en compte du cycle financier permet d’éclairer l’analyse des fluctuations macrofinancières. L’un des résultats clés est que la Grèce, l’Irlande et l’Espagne ont connu un cycle de macrofinancier boom­bust commun dans les années 2000. Les éléments empiriques présentés dans les trois chapitres de cette thèse ont des implications pour les principaux domaines de la politique macroéconomique : la politique monétaire (les politiques macroprudentielles et monétaires doivent être coordonnées), la politique budgétaire (la procyclicité de la politique budgétaire peut être réduite en tenant compte du cycle financier dans l’estimation du solde budgétaire structurel), et la politique financière (les politiques de stabilité financière peuvent compléter les politiques budgétaires et monétaires dans leur fonction de stabilisation du cycle). / This dissertation studies the role of the financial cycle in macroeconomics. Chapter 1 studies the synchronization of business cycles and financial cycles in the euro area. Chapter 2 proposes a new, finance­adjusted measure of the output gap. Chapter 3 proposes a simple and intuitive indicator to quantify the pro­cyclicality of fiscal policy based on output gap and cyclically­adjusted primary fiscal balance estimates. The dissertation shows that taking account of the financial cycle can help inform the analysis of macrofinancial fluctuations. A key finding is that Greece, Ireland and Spain experienced a common macrofinancial boom­bust cycle in the 2000s. The evidence in the three chapters of this dissertation has implications for the main areas of macroeconomic policy: monetary policy (macroprudential and monetary policies should be coordinated), fiscal policy (fiscal policy pro-cyclicality can be reduced by taking account of the financial cycle in estimating structural fiscal balances), and financial policy (financial stability policies can complement fiscal and monetary policies in stabilizing the cycle).