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Modeling loan losses a macroeconomic approachHughes, Jeremy 01 May 2013 (has links)
A sound banking system is essential to a well-functioning economy. With the financial crisis beginning in 2007, a renewed interest in the safety of financial institutions has dominated both the political and financial landscape. Mounting loan losses in real estate lending led to the failing of over 460 banks from 2008 to 2012. This crisis is not unique; in fact, the Savings & Loan Crisis of the 1980's to early 1990's led to the closure of 700 savings institutions. Both instances created a panic in financial markets and heavy losses to deposit insurance funds. These losses are ultimately borne by taxpayers and prudently managed banks, especially if the insurance fund requires re-capitalization. The focus of this paper is on explaining the contributing factors to different categories of loan losses. Namely, total loan losses, residential real estate loan losses, commercial real estate loan losses, and commercial and industrial loan losses are examined. A multivariate regression approach is taken in this paper to explain the four rates of loan losses for the period of 2001 to 2012. Aggregate macroeconomic data from 2001 to 2012 is used to explain loan losses across categories. It was found that the delinquency rate of loans, the consumer financial obligations ratio, and the financial crisis were all significant factors in explaining loan losses.
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RF CMOS Tunable Gilbert Mixer with Wide Tuning Frequency and Controllable Bandwidth: Design Sythesis and VerificationHu, Xin 31 May 2017 (has links)
No description available.
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Job-sharing in the South African labour market : its potential, feasibility and impact on unemployment, productivity and quality of work lifeNgambi, Hellicy Chakosamoto 02 1900 (has links)
The primary aim of this survey is to:
* explore whether there is potential for job-sharing in the South African labour market;
*
*
describe the characteristics of potential job-sharers and
to explain why Job-sharing would be an appropriate and feasible solution to unemployment,
massive retrenchments, poor quality ofwork life (QWL) and low worker productivity
Job-sharing has been used in many developed countries to address a variety of problems at the
individual, organisational and national level. These include allowing workers to have a balance
between their work and non-work life; to increase worker productivity and QWL and to increase
employment opportunities.
The literature survey affirms that these problems are prevalent in Africa as a whole and in South Africa
specifically. The survey results reveal that the environment in South is Africa is conducive to jobsharing
and that slightly over one third of the workers and organisations and two thirds of the jobseekers
are willing to job-share. The results of this study also reveals that QWL, productivity and
unemployment does influence the willingness to job-share and that approximately 80% of the
employees would rather either job-share, work-share or opt for some other alternative than to
have retrenchments. Thus by implication, job-sharing would address the problems relating to poor
QWL, low worker productivity, fewer employment opportunities, as well as massive retrenchments
in South Africa. The study has also explored possible reasons and obstacles to job-sharing and found that whether
these are perceived as significantly important or not, depends on whether one is an employer, employee
or job-seeker . The job-seekers feel more than others, that there is no reason insurmountable or
obstacle preventing the introduction of job-sharing by which to avert their unemployed status. There
are also differences in willingness to job-share among subgroups with regard to the industry, area
of work, position held in the organisation and the availability of job-sharing positions in the
organisation. This thesis reports that there is potential for job-sharing in the South African labour
market, to address a variety of problems pertaining to workers, organisations, job-seekers and,
therefore, the whole nation at large. / Business Management / D.B.L.
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以債權人觀點論研發支出未來效益與風險之抵換關係 / On the Trade-off between the Future Benefits and Riskiness of R&D:A Bondholders’ Perspective蘇怡瑜 Unknown Date (has links)
研發支出之會計處理,一直以來,因著研究發展之特性,始終有著相當分歧的看法。由於研究發展支出具有長期性及未來的經濟效益,有人主張將其以「資本化」方式處理;亦由於研究發展支出具有高度的風險與不確定性,有人主張將其以「費用化」方式處理。
Shi(2003)認為研究發展支出資本化與費用化之爭論,正反映了研發支出未來效益及其風險間之抵換關係(trade-off),亦即,若研發支出之未來效益大於其風險,則較傾向將其資本化,其會計處理同於一般的無形資產;相反地,若研發之風險大於其未來效益,則較傾向將其以費用化方式處理,於發生當期即以費用入帳。
本研究以台灣債券市場為研究對象,探討研發支出未來效益與風險間之抵換關係,文中檢視「債券風險衡量因子」(bond risk measures)與「研究發展支出」之相關性,並以「債信評等等級」與「債券風險溢酬」為債券風險衡量因子,決定平均數效果(預期未來效益)與變異數效果(風險)於債券的評價上何者較為顯著。
一般而言,以債券投資者的角度觀之,若「債券風險衡量因子」與「研究發展支出」兩者呈現負相關,亦即平均數效果較強,則代表研究發展之未來預期效益大於研究發展之風險;若此兩者呈現正相關,亦即變異數效果較強,則代表研究發展之風險大於研究發展之未來預期效益。本研究之實證結果與發現如下:
1.對全體樣本而言,研發支出與債信評等等級呈顯著之正相關(本研究採用TCRI為債信評等衡量變數,等級愈高,風險愈大),代表研發支出之風險大於其未來效益。然研發支出與債券風險溢酬之關係未達統計顯著水準,無法再次驗證上述結果。
2.對電子業樣本而言,與上述對全體樣本之結論相同。
3.對非電子業樣本而言,研發支出與債券風險溢酬為顯著之負相關,代表研發支出之未來效益大於其風險。然研發支出與債信評等等級之關係未達統計顯著水準,無法再次驗證上述結果。
4.在全體樣本、電子業樣本、及非電子業樣本中,將研發支出以費用化或資本化方式予以衡量,兩者之實證結果並無不同,顯示兩者對研發支出未來效益與風險間之抵換關係並無顯著差異存在。
5.電子業與非電子業所獲之結論不同,再次驗證產業別對於研發支出之效果確實有其差異性。
6.針對電子業而言,本研究之實證結果較傾向以費用化之方式處理其研發支出;然針對非電子業而言,較傾向以資本化之方式處理之。 / The debate about the alternative accounting treatments of R&D expenditures reflects trade-offs between the future benefits of R&D and its risk. In general, if the uncertainty regarding future benefits is not so high that it disqualifies the measurability criterion of asset recognition, then one may argue in favor of capitalizing R&D expenditures (as is typical for intangible investment). Conversely, if future outcomes are risky and unpredictable, the expensing treatment may be warranted.
This is study examines the associations among bond risk measures (bond rating and risk premium) and R&D expenditures to determine whether their mean effect (expected future benefits) or their variance effect (risk) is more significant in pricing bonds. In general, from the perspective of bondholders, a negative correlation between bond risk parameter and R&D expenditures would indicate a stronger mean effect; that is, the expected future benefits of R&D expenditures are more than enough to compensate for the added risk of R&D. Conversely, a positive correlation would imply a stronger variance effect that swamps the mean effect of future benefits from R&D expenditures.
The empirical results indicate follows: (1) For all samples, R&D expenditures are significantly positively associated with bond rating. The evidence suggests that, from the perspective of bondholders, the risk and uncertainties of R&D appear to dominate its expected future benefits. However, R&D expenditures have no significant effect on risk premium. (2) For electronic industry samples, the empirical results are the same with all samples. (3) For nonelectronic industry samples, R&D expenditures are significantly negatively associated with risk premium. The evidence suggests that, from the perspective of bondholders, the expected future benefits of R&D appear to dominate its risk. However R&D expenditures have no significant effect on bond rating. (4) The interpretation of this issue are not significant different through the expensing and capitalizing of R&D expenditures. (5) The industry effect is supported by the empirical results that show different effects of R&D on the bond risk measures between electronic industry and the nonelectronic industry. (6) The results indicate that it may be in favor of expensing R&D expenditures for electronic industry and capitalizing R&D expenditures for nonelectronic industry.
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Ecology and Evolution of Adaptive Morphological Variation in Fish PopulationsSvanbäck, Richard January 2004 (has links)
The work in this thesis deals with the ecology and evolution of adaptive individual variation. Ecologists have long used niche theory to describe the ecology of a species as a whole, treating conspecific individuals as ecological equivalent. During recent years, research about individual variation in diet and morphology has gained interest in adaptive radiations and ecological speciation. Such variation among individual niche use may have important conservation implications as well as ecological and evolutionary implications. However, up to date we know very little about the extension of this phenomenon in natural populations and the mechanisms behind it. The results in this thesis show that the extension of individual diet specialization is widely spread throughout the animal kingdom. The variation in diet is mainly correlated to morphological variation but not always. Furthermore, this variation in diet and morphology among individuals could be both genetically determined and environmentally induced and it mainly comes from trade-offs in foraging efficiency between different prey types. The results from a number of studies of perch also show that individual perch differ in morphology and diet depending on habitat, where littoral perch has a deeper body compared to pelagic perch. This difference in morphology corresponds to functional expectations and is related to foraging efficiency trade-offs between foraging in the littoral and pelagic zone of a lake. The variation in morphology in perch is mainly due to phenotypic plasticity but there are also small genetic differences between the littoral and pelagic perch. Two separate studies show that both predation and competition may be important mechanism for the variation in morphology and diet in perch. In conclusion, the results in this thesis show that individual variation in diet and habitat choice is a common phenomenon with lots of ecological and evolutionary implications. However, there are many mechanisms involved in this phenomenon on which we are just about to start learning more about, and only further research in this area will give us the full insight.
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Nedskrivning av goodwill i nordiska storbanker / Goodwill impairment in major Nordic banksClaeson, Lisa, Mört, Mikaela January 2019 (has links)
Bakgrund Sedan IFRS infördes 2005 skall goodwill inte lägre skivas av utan istället testas för nedskrivning minst en gång per år. Nedskrivningsprövningen har sedan dess kritiserats av flertalet forskare och ansetts vara ett ämne för earnings management (EM). Eftersom goodwill skall värderas till verkligt värde följer viss problematik, särskilt under lågkonjunkturer då det är svårt att förutspå hur långvarig den ekonomiska nedgången förväntas bli. Cykliska branscher, såsom bankbranschen, är känsliga för förändringar i konjunkturen och således borde sådana förändringar avspeglas i bankernas goodwillpost. Syfte Studien har två övergripande syften, dels att kartlägga nedskrivningar av goodwill i nordiska storbanker och dels att testa samband mellan dessa och olika konjunkturlägen, Big Bath Accounting och Income Smoothing. Målet med studien är att komplettera det redan befintliga forskningsområdet gällande EM vid nedskrivning av goodwill. Detta genom att ta konjunkturens påverkan i beaktning samt inkludering av nordiska storbanker. Metod Då tidigare studier inom området har exkluderat bankbranschen, var det just av denna anledning som banker valdes ut för studien. För att besvara studiens syfte och frågeställning föll sig en kvantitativ metod mest lämplig. Insamlad data från årsredovisningar perioden mellan 2006–2017 sammanställdes i statistiska modeller och tester och därmed kunde studiens resultat erhållas. Resultat & Slutsats Studiens resultat visar att varken konjunktur, utövande av Big Bath Accounting eller Income Smoothing signifikant påverkar nedskrivning av goodwill i nordiska storbanker. Studien kan därmed inte påvisa förekomsten av någon av dessa två strategier för EM, vilket motsäger tidigare forskning. Gällande konjunkturens påverkan på nedskrivning av goodwill föreligger en negativ korrelation där nedskrivningar tenderar att vara som störst under en lågkonjunktur. Dock har inget tydligt mönster för när nedskrivningar har gjorts kunnat urskiljas. / Background Since IFRS was introduced in 2005, goodwill should no longer be amortized but instead be tested for impairment at least once a year. The impairment test has been criticized by most researchers and blamed to be a topic for earnings management (EM). Because goodwill is measured at fair value, certain problems follow. Especially during recession, when it is hard to predict how long the economic downturn is expected. The banking industry are particularly sensitive to changes in the business cycle. Therefore, should these changes should be reflected in their goodwill. Purpose This study has two main purposes, partly to identify impairments of goodwill in major Nordic banks and partly to test the statistical relationship between these and different economics conditions, Big Bath Accounting and Income Smoothing. The aim of the study is to supplement the existing research regarding earnings management and impairment of goodwill. This by taking different economic conditions in account and including Nordic major banks. Method Previous studies in the research area has excluded the banking industry, for this reason, banks were selected for our study. To answer the study's purpose and issue, a quantitative method fell most suitably. To be able to perform statistical models and tests to obtain a result, data was collected from each bank annual reports during 2006–2017. Results and conclusion The result of the study shows that neither the economic conditions, Big Bath Accounting or Income Smoothing has a significant impact on the impairment of goodwill in banks Nordic Large Cap. The study could not demonstrate the presence of any of these two strategies for earnings management, which contradicts previous research. Regarding the impact of economic conditions of goodwill impairment, there is a negative correlation where write-downs tend to be greater during a recession. Thus, no pattern for when write-downs of goodwill have been made.
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Influence de l’architecture génétique et des variations environnementales sur l’adaptation : la résistance aux insecticides chez les moustiques / Impact of genetic architecture and environmental variations on adaptation : insecticide resistance in mosquitoesMilesi, Pascal 18 December 2015 (has links)
Les mutations sont à l'origine des nombreux "variants" présents dans les populations naturelles. Les variants adaptatifs sont propagés par sélection naturelle. Cependant, une mutation bénéfique sur un trait peut affecter négativement d’autres traits (coût sélectif): un compromis émerge alors entre les avantages et les coûts qu’elle induit. Cette thèse vise à comprendre comment des modifications de l’environnement peuvent affecter les compromis évolutifs de différents types de mutations adaptatives (substitutions, duplications hétérogènes, amplifications). Chez les moustiques, l’utilisation d’insecticides organophosphorés (OPs) et carbamates (CXs) a sélectionné trois réponses adaptatives majeures : une amplification de gènes au locus Ester (codant pour des enzymes détoxicantes), une substitution au locus ace-1 (codant pour la cible des insecticides), et des duplications associant une copie sensible et une copie résistante du locus ace-1. Un premier axe de ma thèse a été de mieux comprendre le rôle de ces duplications hétérogènes (qui associent deux copies divergentes d’un même gène) dans l’adaptation. En caractérisant leurs compromis évolutifs nous avons montré qu'elles confèrent un phénotype proche de celui d’hétérozygotes standards. Toutefois, l’étude de leur distribution mondiale et des analyses en laboratoire ont révélé que ces duplications, avantageuses à l’état hétérozygote, sont majoritairement sublétales à l’état homozygote. Le second axe de cette thèse a été l’étude de l’influence des variations de pression de sélection sur la dynamique des allèles adaptatifs. Une étude d’évolution expérimentale a montré que des pressions de sélection intermédiaires pouvaient générer des situations de superdominance au locus ace-1, favorables à la sélection de duplications hétérogènes. Par ailleurs, l’analyse d’échantillons montpelliérains récoltés sur une trentaine d’années nous a permis de relier quantitativement les variations de la pression de sélection et les variations de la valeur sélective des différents allèles du locus Ester. Enfin, l’étude de trois zones géographiques (Mayotte, Martinique, et Montpellier) a permis de montrer que les différentes adaptations ne répondaient pas de la même façon à une modification environnementale majeure liée au retrait de la pression de sélection (interdiction des OPs et CXs en 2007) : alors que les allèles de résistance du locus ace-1 tendent à disparaitre, ceux du locus Ester se maintiennent en fréquence non négligeable dans les populations naturelles. / Mutations are the origin of the many "variants" present in natural populations. Adaptive variants are propagated by natural selection. However a mutation beneficial for a trait can negatively affect other traits (selective cost): a trade-off thus emerges between the benefits and the costs it induces. This PhD aimed at understanding how environmental changes could affect the evolutionary trade-offs of various types of adaptive mutations (substitutions, heterogeneous duplications, amplifications). In mosquitoes, organophosphate (OPs) and carbamates (CXs) insecticides usage has selected three major adaptive responses: gene amplifications at the Ester locus (encoding detoxifying enzymes), a substitution at the ace-1 locus (encoding the target of the insecticides), and gene duplications pairing susceptible and resistance ace-1 copies. The first axis of my PhD aimed at understanding the role of these heterogeneous duplications (combining two different copies of the same gene) in adaptation. Characterizing their evolutionary trade-offs, we showed that they confer a phenotype similar to standard heterozygotes. However, the study of their worldwide distribution and laboratory analyzes showed that these duplications, advantageous at the heterozygous state, are mostly sublethal when homozygous. The second axis of this PhD was the study of the impact of selection pressure variations on the dynamics of adaptive alleles. An experimental evolution study showed that intermediate selective pressures could generate overdominance situations at the ace-1 locus, promoting the selection of heterogeneous duplications. Furthermore, analyzing Montpellier samples collected over a 27 years period allowed us establishing the quantitative relationship between selective pressure variations and fitness variations for the different Ester resistance alleles. Finally, by studying three different geographical areas (Mayotte and Martinique islands and Montpellier) we showed that the various adaptations were not responding similarly to a major environmental change resulting from the selection pressure withdrawal (OPs and CXs were banned in 2007): while the ace-1 locus resistance alleles tended to disappear, those of the Ester locus remained at a significant frequency in natural populations.
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Risk and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges : Recent Evidence from the Eurozone / Risque et enjeux des politiques macroéconomiquesPopescu, Alexandra 01 December 2014 (has links)
La conduite des politiques économiques a été mise en question après le déclenchement de la crise financière en 2007. Cette thèse analyse les faiblesses identifiées dans la réglementation existante avant la crise et propose des pistes d’amélioration. Le premier chapitre s’intéresse à l’existence du canal de la prise de risque en zone euro. Parle biais des mesures de causalité de long terme, nous démontrons que la politique monétaire a une influence sur le niveau de risque financier. Un autre constat tiré de cette analyse concerne l’absence des mesures de risque systémique.Par conséquent, le deuxième chapitre étudie les mesures proposées après la crise pour les institutions financières et les applique aux États membres de la zone euro. A l’aide de ces mesures, les autorités pourront imposer des règles plus strictes aux pays les plus risqués d’un point de vue systémique. Le chapitre trois envisage une première solution visant à atténuer l’effet des décisions monétaires sur le risque. Nous étudions, à travers un modèle DSGE, l’impact de la stratégie de “leaning against the wind” sur les cycles économiques et financiers. Les résultats montrent qu’unetelle approche n’est pas suffisante pour stabiliser l’économie et que des arbitrages entre objectifs apparaissent. Pour cette raison, le dernier chapitre porte plus en détail sur les arbitrages entre objectifs, et propose, comme une deuxième solution, l’intégration des mesures macroprudentielles dans l’analyse. En utilisant un modèle Néo-Keynésien sous forme réduite, nous trouvons que les fonds propres contracycliques aident à réduire la volatilité des cycles, mais que les trade-offs demeurent en cas de chocs financiers. Le rôle de la banque centrale dans le maintien de la stabilité financière s’avère aussi important, puisque l’utilisation du leaning against the wind semble améliorer la volatilité des cycles. / The conduct of economic policy has been called into question after the outbreak of the financial crisis in2007. This thesis analyzes the flaws identified in the regulation enforced before the crisis and offers suggestionsfor improvement. The first chapter focuses on the existence of the risk-taking channel in the Eurozone. Throughmeasures of long-term causality, we demonstrate that monetary policy influences the level of financial risk. Anotherconclusion drawn from this analysis is the absence of systemic risk measures. Therefore, the second chapter analyzesthe measures proposed after the crisis for financial institutions and applies them to members of the Eurozone. Basedon these measures, authorities may impose stricter rules on countries that prove to be systemically risky. Chapterthree considers a first solution to mitigate the effect of monetary policy decisions on risk. We study, through a DSGEmodel, the impact of the "leaning against the wind" strategy on economic and financial cycles. The results show thatthis approach is not sufficient to stabilize the economy and that it gives rise to trade-offs between objectives. For thisreason, the last chapter examines in more detail the trade-offs between objectives, and proposes as second solution,the integration of macroprudential measures in the analysis. Using a reduced form New-Keynesian model, we find thatcountercyclical capital helps to reduce the volatility of cycles, but trade-offs appear in case of financial shocks. Therole of the central bank in maintaining financial stability seems also important, as the use of leaning against the windimproves cycles’ volatility.
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Padrões de histórias de vida de espécies arbóreas em uma Floresta com Araucária do Sul do BrasilSilva, Cristiane Forgiarini da 30 August 2011 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2011 / Nenhuma / A história de vida das espécies pode ser contada através de suas características fenotípicas, pois elas são resultantes dos processos ocorridos ao longo do tempo evolutivo. Para definir padrões estruturais e de luminosidade entre as espécies arbóreas de uma Floresta com Araucária do Sul do Brasil, características importantes de história de vida foram utilizadas com o intuito de entender as relações existentes entre as espécies encontradas dentro deste ambiente. A filogenia também foi levada em conta e analisada através de um teste de Mantel entre as características de vida e as distâncias filogenéticas das espécies avaliadas. Os resultados revelaram as relações existentes entre as variáveis de história vida e os eixos da PCA que foram divididos em 7: retenção de tecidos, crescimento vertical, alcance luminoso, comprimento da semente, trade-off da dispersão zoocórica, crescimento rápido e trade-off da captura de luz. Já as correlações de Pearson com as posteriores correções através do método de Benjamini & Hochberg apontaram 6 correlações significativas envolvendo os regenerantes 1 e 2. A análise de agrupamento separou as espécies em quatro grupos diferentes: tolerantes à sombra, intermediárias zoocóricas, intermediárias preferencialmente não zoocóricas e espécies com alta intensidade de radiação solar (com destaque para Araucaria angustifolia). Este estudo possibilitou a compreensão das estratégias de vida adotadas pelas espécies arbóreas de uma Floresta com Araucária do Sul do Brasil, além de ser uma nova ferramenta para conservação e manejo destas espécies que poderá ser utilizada nos estudos posteriores. / The life history of species can be expressed by their phenotype features, because trait characteristics are determined by processes occurring in an evolutionary timescale. In this study I analyzed morphological and demographic traits to reveal life histories of Araucaria forest trees species. Possible influence of phylogeny in life history traits was taken into account by a Mantel test between traits and the phylogenetic distance. Trait patterns were then evaluated through ordination, classification and correlation analyses of species per trait matrixes. The Mantel test showed no significant influence of phylogeny in species traits. Principal Component Analysis showed seven life history axes, named as tissue retention, vertical growth, light range, seed length, zoochory trade-off, fast growth and light capture trade-off. Pearson correlations with Benjamini & Hochberg corrections resulted in 6 significant associations between regenerates 1 and 2. Cluster analysis separated the species in four different groups: shade tolerant, zoochoric intermediaries, non-zoochoric rather intermediaries and species with high intensity of solar radiation (especially to Araucaria angustifolia). This study enabled the comprehension of the strategies of life adopted by tree species in the Araucaria Forest, besides becoming a new means of conservation and management of these species.
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La fragmentation de la science à l'épreuve des start-ups.<br />Retour critique sur un constructivisme social au travers de l'étude des modes de coordination des pratiques scientifiques et marchandes lors des projets de création d'entreprise par des chercheurs du secteur public.Lamy, Erwan 07 December 2005 (has links) (PDF)
Les sociologues des sciences "antidifférenciationnistes" annoncent ou décrivent l'effacement des frontières entre science et industrie. La figure archétypale de cette nouvelle science hétéronome serait le "chercheur-entrepreneur", imprégné d'un "esprit d'entreprise" qui lui permettrait de mieux communiquer avec le monde marchand, idée que l'on retrouve sous la forme d'une doxa dans certains discours politiques. Cet antidifférenciationnisme, très proche du constructivisme social, repose sur une radicalité épistémologique fort controversée qui s'offre en réponse aux échecs du fondationnalisme. L'objet de ce travail est de penser l'autonomie de la science en neutralisant les querelles métaphysiques qui découlent de cette radicalité. Il débouche sur la production d'une série de concepts que je mobilise pour l'analyse d'une enquête menée auprès de 81 chercheurs créateurs d'entreprises (complétée par une série d'études de cas), ce qui m'amène à nuancer les thèses antidifférenciationnistes.
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