影響選民投票抉擇的變數可以分成長期因子與短期因子，長期因子有政黨認同與對於現任政府施政評價等；短期因子則包括對於候選人的評價以及競選期間所發生的事件等。先前的研究指出，當一個選民的長期因子與短期因子出現衝突，則該選民將可能不會投給較偏好的候選人。和這些研究不同的是，本論文從衝突選民的理論假設出發來分析投票參與行為。本論文認為，長期因子與短期因子若出現衝突，會使得選民產生衝突壓力，無法作出判斷，進而降低選民投票的意願。本論文聚焦「政黨認同」以及「對現任政府的回溯性評價」兩個長期因子，以及「對候選人的偏好」做為短期因子總指標，探討長期因子與短期因子發生衝突時對於選民投票參與的影響。本論文根據政黨認同與候選人偏好一致與否，以及回溯性評價與候選人偏好一致與否，將選民做若干分類進行分析。本論文利用「台灣選舉與民主化調查」 2004年、2008年、2012年與2016年總統選舉調查資料進行實證分析，發現當選民的政黨認同與候選人偏好並非一致時，選民的投票意願降低。其次，回溯性投票與候選人偏好的衝突也有相似的效果，對於執政黨的表現滿意與否，若非與候選人偏好一致，選民的投票參與意願也會下降。整體而言，本論文將衝突選民理論拓展到對於投票參與行為的解釋，除了對於投票行為研究具有若干貢獻外，也對於政黨的選舉策略提供一些啟發。 / Many previous studies have tested the conflicted voter hypothesis that voters will be less likely to vote for their preferred candidate when the voters' issue positions are in conflict with their partisanship. Building on these previous works, this thesis tests the conflicted voter hypothesis on electoral participation. I contend that voters are less likely to vote when they are under pressure generated by conflicts between factors. Using Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) surveys for the 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016 presidential elections in Taiwan, the empirical analysis demonstrates that voters are less likely to vote when their partisanship is not consistent with their preferred candidate's partisanship. Moreover, the analysis also shows that voters tend to not vote when they identify with the opposition party but are satisfied with the incumbent government's performance, and when they identify with the incumbent party but are dissatisfied with the incumbent government's performance. Overall, this paper not only facilitates a better understanding of conflicted voters' behavior, but also provides implications for the campaign strategies of political parties.

This study analyses parliamentary intelligence oversight in South Africa by assessing the understanding of members of the JSCI of its core business, its mission and vision and powers and functions as are stipulated by law. The study locates the JSCI within an international intelligence oversight milieu through a review and evaluation of selected countries’ intelligence oversight mechanisms. Furthermore, international best practice is sought and applicable lessons are drawn for South Africa. The study is bases on a literature review and interviews with members of the JSCI to gather information and draw insights to evaluate and test the propositions in the context of international and national best practice. The propositions, which are supported by the research, are that: · Intelligence oversight in South Africa under the JSCI has hitherto been relatively effective although there is room for improvement. · The JSCI has good relations with the other arms of the state that are responsible for the oversight of Intelligence in South Africa – making parliamentary intelligence oversight, overall, quite effective. · Despite this effectiveness there are legislative gaps and problems pertaining to the modus operandi of the JSCI that need the attention of both the Executive and Legislature and which could be part of a package of legislative reform. The research supported these propositions whilst pointing out that new initiatives need attention if the culture of oversight is to find root. These are the need to widen the scope of accountability to build a culture of accountability among middle and senior management members of the Intelligence structures and secondly the way Parliament resources the JSCI. / Dissertation (M (Political Sciences))--University of Pretoria, 2006. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

In many instances, television news is the primary outlet through which people gain knowledge on climate change. Both the perceived threat of climate change and American news media have grown politically divided since the 1980s. I make the argument that American news media influences the partisan divide over climate change. In addition to the political landscape of news media, focus on political events and figures in climate coverage further contributes to a partisan divide. Supporting these claims are research displaying how climate change news is processed in a partisan manner and a selection of three case study periods in which climate change coverage spiked among MSNBC, CNN, and Fox News in the last twenty years (2000-2019). I collected news footage from all three case studies using the online database archive.org. Using this footage, an accompanying documentary short was produced that focused on the Paris Climate Accord Withdrawal in 2017. Presented in the documentary and the three case study periods, Fox News held a consistently hands-off and dismissive tone towards climate change, while MSNBC and CNN implemented climate science into coverage while advocating for collective climate action. I report that media is selected and processed via partisanship among viewers; these case studies illustrate the ways in which news media drives the political divide on climate change. I conclude by offering some future ways climate coverage can be more unifying, such as more emphasis on the economic benefits of “a green economy” in news coverage.

From the United Kingdom's Brexit on June 23, 2016, to the formal Brexit on January 30, 2020, there has been a large amount of academic literature discussing the possible effects of Brexit. Among them, the literature on the impact of Brexit on tax policy reforms and capital markets in EU countries is too numerous to enumerate. However, the current research literature lacks a discussion of Central and Eastern European countries, and there is even less research on the link between capital markets and tax policy reforms. This article assumes that the impact of Brexit on the capital markets of CEE countries will cause the government to turn to tax increases to increase fiscal revenue. Three hypotheses are proposed under this assumption. In addition, the empirical research in this article uses the combination of the Poisson model and the Heckman selection model to conduct regression research on the overall taxation of CEE countries, changes in direct and indirect taxation tax policies and bond interest rates, government changes, and political parties left or right. It is concluded that Brexit has no significant impact on the capital markets of CEE countries, and has not caused enough shocks that the government will turn to the government to increase revenue by issuing more tax increases. And Brexit...

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Why is black partisan identification so one-sidedly Democratic forty years past the Civil Rights movement? A black/non-black political dichotomy manifests itself through one-sided African-American partisanship. Racial consciousness and Republican hostility is the basis of the black/non-black political dichotomy, which manifests through African-American partisanship. Racial consciousness forced blacks to take a unique and somewhat jaundiced approach to politics and Republican hostility to black inclusion in the political process in the 1960s followed by antagonism toward public policy contribute to overwhelming black Democratic partisanship. Results shown in this dissertation demonstrate that variables representing economic issues, socioeconomic status and religiosity fail to explain partisan identification to the extent that Hostility-Consciousness explains party identification.

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This dissertation examines the political origins of Loyalism in New York City between 1768 and 1778. Anchored by an analysis of political mobilization, this dissertation is structured into two parts. Part I has two chapters. Using a variety of private and public sources, the first chapter analyses how 9,338 mostly white male Loyalists in New York City and the counties of Kings, Queens, Suffolk and Westchester were mobilized. Chapter 1 argues that elites and British forces played a fundamental role in the broad-based mobilization of Loyalists in the province of New York. It also recognises that colonists signed Loyalist documents for many different reasons. The second chapter of Part I is a large-scale prosopographical analysis of the 9,338 identified Loyalists. This analysis was based on a diverse range of sources. This analysis shows that a majority of the province’s Loyalist population were artisans aged between 22 and 56 years of age. Part II of this dissertation examines political mobilization in New York City between 1768 and 1775. In three chapters, Part II illustrates how elite and non-elite white male New Yorkers coalesced into two distinct groups. Chapter 3 concentrates on the emergence of the DeLanceys as a political force in New York, Chapter 4 on their mobilization and coalescence into ‘the Friends to Liberty and Trade’, or ‘the Club’, and Chapter 5 examines the political origins of what became Loyalism by studying the social networks of three members of ‘the Club’. By incorporating an interdisciplinary methodology, Part II illustrates that members of ‘the Club’ developed ties with one another that transcended their political origins. It argues that the partisanship of New York City led members of ‘the Club’ to adopt inward-looking characteristics that affected who they interacted with on an everyday basis. A large proportion of ‘the Club’’s members became Loyalists in the American Revolution. This dissertation argues that it was the partisanship that they developed during the late 1760s and early 1770s that defined their allegiance.

Les révolutions de l’Est ont induit la fragmentation des Etats qui s’est accompagnée, sur le plan interne par une renaissance des partis ethniques ; ce qui ne va pas sans poser de problèmes à la démocratie politique. Les transitions et a fortiori les consolidations démocratiques font émerger un double phénomène d’interaction entre les acteurs et le système, dans la recherche d’un nouvel équilibre. Les partis ethniques se politisent alors que le système s’ouvre à l’acteur ethnique. On assiste donc à un réajustement évolutif du système devant la nouvelle donne. Le système s’ouvre aux nouvelles demandes à caractère ethnique de différentes façons et à différents degrés : entre la légalisation et la tolérance. Côté acteurs, les partis ethniques rentrent progressivement dans le jeu politique ; de différentes façons et à différents degrés. Dans notre champ problématique les relations interactives se déploient entre acteurs multi-niveaux (partis-Etats) et dans les divers champs (politique, sociétal et juridique). Leurs connexions sont croisées entre l’espace étatique et internationale, public et civil, politique et sociétal ; avec les Etats d’accueil ou d’origine, mais aussi, les Etats-tiers. Ils sont à velléités indépendantistes ou simplement des lobbies politiques. Nous avons essayé de mettre en lumière les principaux aspects de la complexité de la question ethnique dans les jeunes démocraties politiques ‘‘en consolidation’’. La problématique ethnique des PECO peut-elle nous aider à compléter en actualisant certaines visions généralistes des sciences politiques ? Les acteurs impliqués sont ainsi invités à éviter les pièges des nationalismes perçus comme ‘‘mesquins’’, voire ‘‘chaotiques’’ tout en servant la cause d’une plus souple intégration politique alias la ‘‘paix démocratique’’. / The revolutions of Eastern induced fragmentation of States were accompanied internally by a revival of ethnic parties, which is not without its problems in political democracy. Transitions and even more democratic consolidation are emerging a double phenomenon of interaction between actors and the system in search of a new equilibrium. Ethnic parties then politicize the system opens the ethnic actor. We are witnessing an evolutionary adjustment of the system to the new situation. The system opens to the new demands ethnic ways and to different degrees: between legalization and tolerance. Side actors, are gradually returning ethnic parties in the political game, in different ways and to different degrees. In our problem the field deploy interactive relationships between multi-level actors (parties-States) and in the various fields (political, societal and legal). Their connections are crossed between the State and international space, public and civil, political and social, with host countries or origin, but also the third States. They are separatist ambitions or simply political lobbies. We tried to highlight the main aspects of the complexity of the ethnic issue in young democracies political '' in consolidation ''. The ethnic problem of CEEC can help us to complete updating some general visions of political science? The actors involved are invited to avoid the pitfalls of nationalism perceived as '' petty '' or '' chaotic '' while serving the cause of a more flexible policy integration to the ‘‘democratic peace’’.