[pt] O presente trabalho analisa o movimento recente nos preços de eurobonds emitidos por empresas brasileiras e a sua relação com a evolução do risco soberano brasileiro. Com o objetivo de verificar possíveis assimetrias na reação dos preços desses títulos a novas informações sobre as empresas emissoras em diferentes níveis do CDS associado à dívida soberana brasileira, testamos o comportamento dos preços dos eurobonds à divulgação de informações indicadoras dos fundamentos específicos das firmas emissoras de dívida, a saber: (i) alterações do rating atribuído por agências especializadas e (ii) anúncio do lucro por ação trimestral das empresas de capital aberto. Em linha com a literatura sobre o assunto, encontramos evidências de uma relação importante entre risco soberano e corporativo para o caso brasileiro. / [en] The present work analyzes the recent movement in the prices of Eurobonds issued by Brazilian companies and its relationship with the evolution of Brazilian sovereign risk. To identify possible asymmetries in the price reaction of these securities to new information regarding the debt issuers at different levels of the CDS associated with Brazilian sovereign debt, we tested the behavior of eurobonds prices to the disclosure of information about the specific fundamentals of issuers (i) changes in the rating attributed by specialized rating agencies and (ii) announcement of the quarterly earnings per share of publicly traded companies. In line with the literature on the subject, we find evidence of an important relationship between sovereign and corporate risk for the Brazilian case.

Die Dissertation untersucht verschiedene Einflussfaktoren auf die Finanzierungskosten von Staaten. Dabei werden die Eurokrise, Rohstoffpreise und Klimawandel als drei wesentliche Einflussfaktoren herangezogen und deren empirische Wichtigkeit statistisch untersucht. Ein weiterer Artikel beschäftigt sich mit der Integration von Finanzmärkten auf die Ausbreitung von Konjunkturzyklen.:Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Motivation: The Curious Case and Multiple Facets of Sovereign Debt . . . . 1 1.2 Outline and Contribution of this Thesis to the Literature . . . . . . . . . . . 6 A.1 Appendix to Chapter 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 References to Chapter 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Chapter 2: Avoiding the Fall into the Loop: Isolating the Transmission of Bank-to-Sovereign Distress in the Euro Area 19 2.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2.2 Literature Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.3 Data Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.1 Deriving Country-Specific Bank Distress . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3.2 Instrumenting Bank Distress using Exposure-Weighted Stock Market Returns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.3.3 Set of Dependent and Explanatory Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.3.3.1 Dependent Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.3.3.2 Control Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2.4 Empirical Specification and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.5 Robustness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 2.5.1 Comparison of IV and OLS during Eurozone Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . 38 2.5.2 Alternative Versions of the Dependent Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 2.5.3 Alternative Versions for Bank Distress Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.5.4 Alternative Versions for Instrumental Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2.5.5 Strengthening the Exclusion Restriction of the Instrument . . . . . . . 46 2.5.6 Weekly Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 2.5.7 Alternative Control Variables and Time Fixed Effects . . . . . . . . . 49 2.5.8 Wild Cluster Bootstrapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 2.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 A.2 Appendix to Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 A.2.1 Drivers of Bank-to-Sovereign Distress Transmissions . . . . . . . . . . 54 A.2.1.1 Macroeconomic Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 A.2.1.2 Government Bond Issuances, Redemptions and Holdings . . 62 A.2.1.3 Banking Sector Structure and Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 A.2.1.4 Political Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 A.2.2 Additional Tables and Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 References to Chapter 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 Chapter 3: What drives the Commodity-Sovereign Risk Dependence in Emerging Market Economies? 87 3.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 3.2 Data, Variables and Summary Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.2.1 Dependent Variable: Sovereign Default Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.2.2 Deriving Country-specific Commodity Performance . . . . . . . . . . . 94 3.2.3 Set of Control Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 3.3 Empirical Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.3.1 Baseline Specification and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.3.2 Alternative Specifications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 3.4 Drivers of the Commodity-Sovereign Risk Dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 3.4.1 Commodity-related Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 3.4.2 Macroeconomic and International Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 3.4.3 Policy Measures against Commodity Dependence . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 3.5 Robustness Checks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 3.5.1 Dropping Countries with Liquidity Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 3.5.2 Alternative Specifications for EMBI and Commodity Performance . . 129 3.5.3 Alternative Control Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 3.5.4 Alternative Fixed Effects, Frequency, Clustering and Time Series Results131 3.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136 A.3 Appendix to Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 References to Chapter 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142 Chapter 4: Financial Linkages and Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization: Evidence from Europe 145 4.1 Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 4.2 Empirical Strategy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 4.2.1 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 4.2.2 Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 4.3 Estimation Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4.3.1 Results for Overall Output Fluctuations (GDP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4.3.2 Results for Industrial Output Fluctuations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162 4.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166 A.4 Appendix to Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 References to Chapter 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180 Chapter 5: Physical Climate Change Risks and the Sovereign Creditworthiness of Emerging Economies 182 5.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 5.2 Physical Climate Change Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 5.2.1 Physical Climate Change Risk in Contrast to Transition Risk . . . . . 187 5.2.2 Physical Climate Change and Sovereign Creditworthiness . . . . . . . 189 5.3 Data and Descriptive Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 5.3.1 Sovereign Creditworthiness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 5.3.2 Temperature Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 5.4 Empirical Specification and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 5.5 Channels of Temperature-Sovereign Risk Connection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 5.5.1 General Warmness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 199 5.5.2 Seasonality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203 5.5.3 Month and Season Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205 5.5.4 Economic Sector Specialization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 208 5.5.5 Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 5.5.6 Combining relevant Channels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 5.6 Robustness Tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 5.6.1 Changing the Fixed Effects Specification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218 5.6.2 Changing the Dependent Variable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 5.6.3 Changing the Lag Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 5.6.4 Changing the Historical Temperature Average Period . . . . . . . . . . 222 5.6.5 Dropping Countries with lower Data Coverage and larger Landmass . 226 5.6.6 Other Temperature Anomaly Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 5.6.7 Analyzing Debt Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 5.6.8 Testing for Transition Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229 5.6.9 Changing Economic Sector Specialization Measures . . . . . . . . . . . 231 5.7 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 A.5 Appendix to Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 234 References to Chapter 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247

This thesis provides evidence of how macroeconomic surprises, constructed as deviations from market expectations, impact daily spread changes of Czech, Polish and Hungarian (CEEC-3) government bonds and sovereign credit default swaps. Firstly, we carried out series of event studies that inspect the spreads' reactions to the announcements. Subsequently, we employed the general-to-specific modeling approach and arrived at thirty GARCH-type models that consider surprises' impact on both conditional mean and variance. We have found significant impacts on the mean, yet in terms of magnitude, the impact of macroeconomic surprises has not been superior to that of broad financial factors. The impact on spreads' volatility appears more consequential though it lacks a clear pattern: Both good and bad news have been found to affect the volatility in either direction. Our findings suggest that with respect to macroeconomic news, daily changes of the bond spreads are driven rather by inflation expectations than by credit risk considerations. Foreign news proxied by the German surprises seems to affect the CEEC-3 bond spreads mainly through the risk-free proxy - the German Bund yield. Contrary to studies using low-frequency macroeconomic data, we have found no evidence for the "wake-up call" hypothesis.

This dissertation comprises two essays; the first of which investigates sovereign credit risk interdependencies, while the second examines the reaction of corporate credit risk to sovereign credit risk events. The first essay titled, Characterizing Sovereign Credit Risk Interdependencies: Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market, investigates the relationships that exist among disparate sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and the implications on sovereign creditworthiness. We exploit emerging market sovereign CDS spreads to examine the reaction of sovereign credit risk to changes in country-specific and global financial factors. Utilizing aVAR model fitted with DCC GARCH, we find that comovements of spreads generally exhibit significant time-varying correlations, suggesting that spreads are commonly affected by global financial factors. We construct 19 country-specific commodity price indexes to instrument for country terms of trade, obtaining significant results. Our commodity price indexes account for significant variation in CDS spreads, controlling for global financial factors. In addition, sovereign spreads are found to be related to U.S. stock market returns and the VIX volatility risk premium global factors. Notwithstanding, our results suggest that terms of trade and commodity prices have a statistically and economically significant effect on the sovereign credit risk of emerging economies. Our results apply broadly to investors, financial institutions and policy makers motivated to utilize profitable factors in global portfolios. The second essay is titled, Differential Stock Market Returns and Corporate Credit Risk of Listed Firms. This essay explores the information transfer effect of shocks to sovereign credit risk as captured in the CDS and stock market returns of cross-listed and local stock exchange listed firms. Based on changes in sovereign credit ratings and outlooks, we find that widening CDS spreads of firms imply that negative credit events dominate, whereas tightening spreads indicate positive events. Grouping firms into companies with cross-listings and those without, we compare the spillover effects and find strong evidence of contagion across equity and CDS markets in both company groupings. Our findings suggest that the sensitivity of corporate CDS prices to sovereign credit events is significantly larger for non-cross-listed firms. Possible reasons for this finding could in fact be due to cross-listed firms’ better access to external capital and less degree of asymmetric information, relative to non-cross-listed peers with lower level of investor recognition. Our results provide new evidence relevant to investors and financial institutions in determining sovereign credit risk germane to corporate financial risk, for the construction of debt and equity portfolios, and hedging considerations in today’s dynamic environment.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Baptista Palazzi.pdf: 814710 bytes, checksum: ce7465b2f886d65bb16dc97d442eae3d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-11-16 / The actual study aims to analyze the role of credit rating agencies in the world crisis, focusing on the Asian crisis, the Agencies whose work had an important role. We have argued that in Asian crisis the rating agencies have not been able to anticipate the crisis and have acted in a way to intensify it. This paper presents, previously, the historical background of the Rating Agencies and analyzes the structure of the methodology disclosed by them, which is used for classification of the ratings. Through the relevant literature review it will be analyzed the determinants and impacts of the ratings in emerging market economies, particularly in the Asian crisis. Therefore it will be discussed the role of the rating Agencies in the Asian crisis and, briefly, it will be shown the acting of rating agencies in the other world crises / O presente estudo visa analisar o papel das agências classificadoras de risco nas crises mundiais, com foco na crise asiática, quando a atuação das agências teve um papel importante. Argumentamos que, na crise asiática as Agências de rating não foram capazes de antecipar a crise e agiram de forma a intensificá-la. O trabalho apresenta, inicialmente, um panorama histórico das agências de rating e analisa a estrutura da metodologia divulgada pelas agências que é utilizada para classificação dos ratings. Por meio da revisão da literatura relevante, serão analisados os determinantes e os impactos dos ratings nas economias emergentes e, principalmente, os impactos na crise asiática. Por fim será discutido o papel das agências na crise asiática e, brevemente, será destacada a atuação das agências em outras crises mundiais

在次級房貸風暴之後，各國赤字大幅增加。如希臘與愛爾蘭，其主權債務違約風險皆大幅升高。面對這樣的困境，政府該如何實施財政政策，以防止主權債務危機的發生?本篇文章在DSGE模型之下，以Uribe(2006)的設定為基礎架構，額外增加了產出方程式以使國家產出能由模型內生決定。並加入了政府支出與產出之間的關係式，以討論在面對正的景氣衝擊與負的景氣衝擊時，政府使用正向景氣循環政策和負向景氣循環政策對於政府倒債率的影響。最後發現當政府使用負向景氣循環政策和較弱的順向景氣循環政策時，政府的倒債率會和技術衝擊有反向的關係。而當政府使用較強的順向景氣循環政策時，政府的倒債率會和技術衝擊有正向的關係。從此結果，我們推論在後金融海嘯時期，希臘與愛爾蘭等國家，應使用較強的順景氣循環政策以降低其主權債務危機的發生機率。 / After the subprime crisis, many government deficits rose sharply, especially Greece and Ireland. Their default rate rose greatly than before. Under this difficult situation, what kind of fiscal policy should the government enforces to prevent it from bankruptcy? We follow the model in Uribe (2006) as our framework but adding the production function and the government expenditure function to analyze the effects of different fiscal policies on the government default rate. The results tell us that when the government uses countercyclical fiscal policy and weak procyclical fiscal policy, the change of the default rate is opposite to the technical shock. On the contrary, when the government uses strong procyclical fiscal policy, the default rate is positive relation with the technical shock. This implies that governments, such as Greece and Ireland, should use strong procyclical fiscal policy to reduce their sovereign risk under the recession.

This doctoral thesis consists of 4 self-contained chapters: Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia. This comprehensive review of the literature on sovereign CDS spreads highlights current academic debates and contrasts them with contradictory statements from the popular press.  Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk. New empirical evidence highlights that global macroeconomic risk unspanned by global financial risk bears some responsibility for the strong co-movement in sovereign spreads. A model with only two global macroeconomic state variables rationalizes the existence of time-varying risk premia as a compensation for exposure to common U.S. business cycle risk. The Term Structure of CDS Spreads and Sovereign Credit Risk. The term structure of CDS spreads is an informative signal about the relative importance of global and country-specific risk factors for the time variation of sovereign credit spreads. An empirically validated model illustrates how local risk matters relatively more when the slope is negative, while systematic risk bears more responsibility when the slope is positive. Squeezed Everywhere - Disentangling Types of Liquidity and Testing Limits-to-Arbitrage. The CDS-Bond basis is used as a laboratory to disentangle different types of liquidity and to test limits-of-arbitrage. While asset-specific liquidity is cross-correlated in both the cash and derivative market, funding and market liquidity matter only for the former. The tests find strong evidence in favor of margin-based asset pricing and flight-to-quality effects. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2013. Sammanfattning jämte 4 uppsatser</p>

Income growth is much more volatile in developing countries than in developed ones. One argument is that weak legal and political institutions exacerbate macroeconomic shocks precipitating the economy into widespread crises. The first chapter of my thesis focuses on sovereign debt crises and discusses how government default in bad times can trigger a liquidity crisis within the economy even in absence of classic foreign penalties. The second chapter takes a complementary perspective and emphasizes the role of sectoral specialization as a source of the higher volatility of emerging markets, much in line with recent empirical evidence. En las ultimas décadas el crecimiento de la renta en los países en desarrollo ha sido mucho más volátil que en los desarrollados. Un explicación es que la debilidad de las instituciones jurídicas y políticas agravan las crisis macroeconómicas precipitando la economía en una crisis generalizada. El primer capítulo de mi tesis se centra en la crisis de la deuda soberana y analiza cómo la insolvencia del gobierno puede desencadenar una crisis de liquidez en la economía, incluso en ausencia de sanciones desde el extranjero. El segundo capítulo adopta una perspectiva complementaria y destaca el papel de la especialización sectorial como fuente de la mayor volatilidad de los mercados emergentes, en consonancia con una reciente evidencia empírica.

[pt] O objetivo do presente estudo foi investigar a possibilidade de alterações de ratings soberanos de países emergentes produzirem efeitos no mercado acionário brasileiro. Para tanto, adotou-se o teste estatístico paramétrico de estudo de evento, amplamente utilizado para testes de eficiência semi-forte de mercado. Os resultados sugerem que alterações de ratings soberanos de países emergentes produzem efeitos no comportamento dos preços do mercado acionário brasileiro, ainda que sua intensidade esteja associada ao tipo de informação que foi incorporada. Notícias negativas, principalmente os rebaixamentos de outlook, carregam um conteúdo informacional maior do que as positivas. Observou-se ainda a existência de antecipação dos anúncios negativos por parte dos agentes. / [en] The objective of the study was to investigate the possibility that sovereign rating changes of emerging countries impact the brazilian equity market. For such, the parametric statistical test of event study was adopted, widely utilized for semi-strong efficiency market tests. The results indicate that emerging markets sovereign rating changes produce effects over the behavior of brazilian equity market prices, although the intensity of the impact is associated to the type of information that was incorporated. The study shows that negative news, specially the negative outlook rating assignments, produce higher effects on prices compared to positive news. Futhermore, it was noted that market participants anticipate negative news.

[pt] A crescente integração econômica e financeira mundial vem continuamente intensificando a demanda por informações visando subsidiar a tomada de decisões de um investidor global, geralmente baseada em dois fatores primordiais: risco e retorno. Nesse contexto, tornam-se extremamente interessantes as informações produzidas pelas agências de classificação de risco. Tais agências representam, através de notas, o risco de uma determinada nação não arcar com suas dívidas. Conseqüentemente, ao classificar o risco soberano de um país, influenciam investidores de todo o mundo, impactando principalmente, os mercados emergentes, como o brasileiro. Assim, o objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar os efeitos de mudanças dos ratings soberanos brasileiros atribuídos pelas agências de classificação de risco, no mercado acionário nacional. É percorrido um histórico das agências de rating e dos principais bonds por elas avaliados. Também é fornecida uma detalhada descrição das características daquelas agências e a forma de que elas influenciariam o mercado de capitais. Em seguida, através de testes estatísticos, desenvolve-se um estudo de evento, para analisar os efeitos verificados sobre os retornos do índice BOVESPA, nos períodos de upgrade, downgrade ou reavaliação assinalados pelas agências.Por fim, resultados serão expostos e as conclusões apresentadas. / [en] The growing economic and financial integration of the world is continuously intensifying the demand for information, in order to subsidize the decision making of the global investor, generally based on two major factors: risk and return. In this context, the data produced by the Credit Risk Agencies becomes extremely interesting. Such Agencies represent, with grades, the risk of a specific nation does not pay its debt. Consequently, when there is a Sovereign Risk classification of a country, these companies influence investors all over the world, impacting mostly the emerging markets, as well as the Brazilian market. Therefore, the objective of this work is to evaluate the effects of Brazilian Sovereign ratings, attributed by the Credit Agencies, in the national stock bond markets. A history of the Credit Agencies and the most important bonds evaluated by them will be reviewed. Furthermore, a detailed description of the characteristics of those agencies and how they influence the capital markets will be provided. Following, through statistical tests, an event study will be developed to analyze the effects verified in the returns of BOVESPA index, in events of upgrade, downgrade and outlook revision signed by the Credit Agencies. Finally, results are provided and conclusions presented.