Cette thèse met en avant l’analyse du lien entre le marché de la dette de gouvernement, le risque souverain, la stabilité du système financier et le développement des marchés de la dette locale dans les pays émergents. Afin de remplir l’espace vide dans la littérature académique sur les flux obligataires j’ai construit une nouvelle base des données sur les détentions des obligations souveraines par les investisseurs domestiques et étrangers et, par conséquence, j’ai effectué une analyse empirique des déterminants des flux entrants et sortants par type d’investisseur et pays. Ainsi la thèse projette une image complète de la globalisation des marchés de la dette souveraine. / This PhD dissertation presents the analysis of the link between the government debt market, sovereign risk, financial stability and development of the local currency debt in emerging economies. The reserch contribution to the academic literature lies in the empirical analysis of capital flows in bond markets and, for this purpose, I constructed a novel database covering domestic and foreign holdings of government bonds in developed and emerging economies. As a result, this disertation projects a complete and coherent image of the globalisation of sovereign bond markets.

Thesis deals with the attraction of Czech government bonds from the perspective of foreign investors in relation with the current economic development in CEE region, and further in the rest of the world. Analysis is targeted to issue of the Czech government bonds in turn of 2009 and 2010. After the analysis and description of foreign investors representing huge part of the entire demand for the Czech government bonds on the domestic and foreign markets the paper further covers individual pros and cons of the instrument. The empirical analysis is conducted as the comparison of the yields and risk of Czech goventment bonds with the similar instruments issued by Hungarian and Slovakian governments. Separate part of the thesis covers the characteristics of used instruments (Czech T-Notes and T-Bills) and legal adjustments of the auctions through which these instruments are placed on the domestic market. Thesis also contains a separate chapters covering the results of former issues of the Czech government bonds abroad and the analysis of tax consequences resulting from holding and selling the Czech government bonds by foreign investors.

La présente thèse traite la modélisation mathématique des risques souverains et ses applications.Dans le premier chapitre, motivé par la crise de la dette souveraine de la zone euro, nous proposons un modèle de risque de défaut souverain. Ce modèle prend en compte aussi bien le mouvement de la solvabilité souveraine que l’impact des événements politiques critiques, en y additionnant un risque de crédit idiosyncratique. Nous nous intéressons aux probabilités que le défaut survienne aux dates d’événements politiques critiques, pour lesquelles nous obtenons des formules analytiques dans un cadre markovien, où nous traitons minutieusement quelques particularités inhabituelles, entre autres le modèle CEV lorsque le paramètre d’élasticité β >1. Nous déterminons de manière explicite le processus compensateur du défaut et montrons que le processus d’intensité n’existe pas, ce qui oppose notre modèle aux approches classiques. Dans le deuxième chapitre, en examinant certains modèles hybrides issus de la littérature, nous considérons une classe de temps aléatoires dont la loi conditionnelle est discontinue et pour lesquels les hypothèses classiques du grossissement de filtrations ne sont pas satisfaites. Nous étendons l’approche de densité à un cadre plus général, où l’hypothèse de Jacod s’assouplit, afin de traiter de tels temps aléatoires dans l’univers du grossissement progressif de filtrations. Nous étudions également des problèmes classiques : le calcul du compensateur, la décomposition de la surmartingale d’Azéma, ainsi que la caractérisation des martingales. La décomposition des martingales et des semi-martingales dans la filtration élargie affirme que l’hypothèse H’ demeure valable dans ce cadre généralisé. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous présentons des applications des modèles proposés dans les chapitres précédents. L’application la plus importante du modèle de défaut souverain et de l’approche de densité généralisée est l’évaluation des titres soumis au risque de défaut. Les résultats expliquent les sauts négatifs importants dans le rendement actuariel de l’obligation à long terme de la Grèce pendant la crise de la dette souveraine. La solvabilité de la Grèce a tendance à s’empirer au fil des années et le rendement de l’obligation a des sauts négatifs lors des événements politiques critiques. En particulier, la taille d’un saut dépend de la gravité d’un choc exogène, du temps écoulé depuis le dernier événement politique, et de la valeur du recouvrement. L’approche de densité généralisée rend aussi possible la modélisation des défauts simultanés qui, bien que rares, ont un impact grave sur le marché. / This dissertation deals with the mathematical modelling of sovereign credit risk and its applications. In Chapter 1, motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign risk model which takes into account both the movement of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events besides the idiosyncratic credit risk. We are interested in the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates, for which we obtain closed-form formulae in a Markovian setting, where we deal with some unusual features, such as a treatment of the CEV model when the elasticity parameter β > 1. We compute explicitly the compensator process of default and show that the intensity process does not exist. In Chapter 2, by studying certain hybrid models in literature on credit risks, we consider a type of random times whose conditional probability distribution is not continuous and by which standard intensity and density hypotheses in the enlargement of filtrations are not satisfied. We propose a generalised density approach, where the hypothesis of Jacod is relaxed, in order to deal with such random times in the framework of progressive enlargement of filtrations We also study classic problems such as the computation of the compensator process of the random time, the decomposition of the Azéma supermartingale, as well as the martingale characterisation. The martingale and semimartingale decompositions in the enlarged filtration show that the H’-hypothesis holds in this generalised framework. In Chapter 3, we display several applications of the models proposed in the previous chapters. The most important application of the hybrid default model and the generalised density approach is the valuation of default claims. The results explain the significant negative jumps in the long-term Greek government bond yield during the sovereign debt crisis. The solvency of Greece tends to fall gradually through time and the bond yield has negative jumps when critical political events are held. In particular, the size of a jump depends on the seriousness of an exogenous shock, the elapsed time since the last political event, and the value of the recovery payment. The generalised density approach also makes possible the modelling of simultaneous defaults, which are rare but may have an important impact.

El presente documento investiga el impacto que tiene el tamaño de la economía informal en el riesgo soberano de los países miembros de la Alianza del Pacífico, cuyas economías presentan características similares y niveles altos de informalidad. De esta manera, se pretende analizar un factor que no ha sido estudiado ampliamente como determinante del riesgo soberano en países emergentes latinoamericanos. Para cumplir con el objetivo, se realiza una estimación econométrica de datos panel con efectos fijos donde se encuentra que el tamaño de la informalidad es un determinante significativo de mayores niveles en la tasa de interés real, el diferencial entre las tasas de interés activa y pasiva de las economías, el diferencial entre el rendimiento de los bonos soberanos nacionales frente a los bonos estadounidenses y el endeudamiento público, lo que se traslada en un incremento del riesgo soberano a través de un perjuicio en la política fiscal y estabilidad financiera de los países. / This document investigates the impact of the size of the informal economy on the sovereign risk of the member countries of the Pacific Alliance, whose economies have similar characteristics and high levels of informality. In this way, it is intended to analyze a factor that has not been widely studied as a determinant of sovereign risk in emerging Latin American countries. To meet the objective, an econometric estimation of panel data with fixed effects is carried out, where it is found that the size of informality is a significant determinant of higher levels in the real interest rate, the differential between the active and passive interest rates of economies, the differential between the yield of national sovereign bonds compared to US bonds and public indebtedness, which translates into an increase in sovereign risk through damage to the fiscal policy and financial stability of the countries. / Trabajo de investigación

[pt] Neste artigo estudamos o impacto de surpresas monetárias sobre um conjunto de preços de ativo no mercado financeiro Brasileiro. Devido a fatores institucionais que impedem a identificação deste impacto através de associações entre o choque monetário e variações de preços de ativos em pequenos intervalos ao redor de anúncios de política monetária, utilizamos uma abordagem de estudo de eventos em frequência diária, controlando por fatores domésticos e externos que afetam os preços de ativos relevantes. Os resultados indicam que a surpresa monetária contracionista possui um impacto negativo significativo sobre retornos da bolsa de valores, e o impacto sobre a curva de juros é positivo, atingindo um máximo ao vértice de 6 meses. Diferente de grande parte da literatura focada ao Brasil, os resultados apontam a uma apreciação do Real em reação a esta surpresa monetária contracionista, o que é consistente com reações de moedas de países desenvolvidos a surpresas monetárias. Por mais que obtenhamos um regime no qual a taxa de câmbio não reage significativamente à surpresa monetária, não há forte evidência de que a causa por trás deste regime é de natureza fiscal. / [en] In this paper we study the impact of monetary surprises on a class of asset prices in the Brazilian financial market. Due to institutional factors that prevent identification of this impact through the association between the monetary surprise and asset price movements in short windows around monetary policy announcements, we use an event study framework at daily frequency, controlling for both domestic and foreign factors that may affect the asset prices under analysis. We find that a surprise monetary tightening has a strong negative impact on stock market returns, and its effect on the yield curve is positive and hump-shaped, reaching a maximum on the 6 months yield. Unlike most of the previous literature focused on Brazil, we find that the Brazilian Real appreciates in response to this monetary tightening, which is consistent with the reactions found for currencies of developed economies. Moreover, while we obtain a regime in which the exchange rate is irresponsive to the monetary surprise, the evidence supporting a fiscal cause behind this regime is not strong.

[pt] Atualmente, com a intensificação da integração econômica e financeira dos mercados, o enfraquecimento das fronteiras nacionais e o significativo crescimento do comércio internacional, os investidores estão direcionando cada vez mais seus fluxos de capitais para os mercados externos, de forma a promover a diversificação internacional de suas carteiras, reduzindo o risco ao mesmo nível de retorno aos apresentados por carteiras puramente nacionais. É neste contexto de expansão internacional dos mercados e de elaboração de carteiras internacionais que as informações referentes aos riscos de cada investimento se tornam ainda mais importantes. Neste sentido, visando suprir essas necessidades de informações, começaram a surgir no início do século XX as empresas privadas de rating com o propósito de fornecer as classificações de risco dos emissores de títulos, os ratings de crédito. Consequentemente, ao classificar o risco de um título, esses ratings possuem a capacidade de influenciar o mercado como um todo. Assim, esse trabalho objetiva verificar o impacto que as alterações de rating soberano brasileiro pelas agências especializadas produzem no mercado acionário brasileiro, mais especificamente no comportamento das ações de empresas estatais, visto que estas deveriam ser supostamente mais impactadas que as demais frente a essas revisões, tanto via resposta do mercado como um todo quanto ao fato de ter a percepção do risco de seu controlador diretamente alterado por esses ratings. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um estudo de evento, para analisar os efeitos verificados sobre os retornos de mercado (IBOVESPA) e das empresas estatais, nos períodos de downgrade e de upgrade. / [en] Currently, with the intensification of economic and financial integration of the markets, the weakening of national borders and the significant growth of international trade, investors are increasingly directing their capital flows towards external markets in order to promote international diversification of their portfolios, reducing the risk at the same level of return to those presented by purely domestic portfolios. It is in this context of international expansion of markets and of the development of international portfolios that the information regarding the risks of each investment becomes even more important. In this sense, in order to meet these information needs, the private rating companies began to emerge as early as the twentieth century, in order to provide risk ratings regarding the issuers of securities, credit ratings. Consequently, by classifying the risk of a security, these ratings have the ability to influence the market as a whole. Thus, this study aims to investigate the impact that Brazilian sovereign rating changes by these specialized agencies have in the Brazilian stock market, specifically regarding the behavior of shares of state-owned companies, as these should supposedly be more affected than the others against sovereign risk reviews, both through the market s response as a whole and by the fact that the perception of risk by their majority shareholder is directly altered by these ratings. To this end, an event study is conducted to analyze the effects seen on market returns (IBOVESPA) and state enterprises, in periods of downgrade and upgrade.

Cette thèse est composée de trois articles d’économie bancaire empirique. Le premier article traite de l’impact des conditions d’octroi de crédit sur l’accession à la propriété et les prix immobilier. Il propose une stratégie d’identification d’effets de causalité utilisant la politique du Prêt à Taux Zéro. Il conclut qu’un relâchement des conditions d’octroi de crédit permet à des ménages au revenu relativement plus faible de devenir propriétaire mais augmente significativement les prix immobilier. Le second article traite de l’effet des exigences en capital sur l’octroi de crédit des banques aux sociétés non financières. Il isole la composante des exigences en capital exogène aux conditions macroéconomiques grâce au système de notation du superviseur bancaire français. Il montre que les mesures de la qualité de la gouvernance et de la stratégie des établissements sont des contributeurs importants aux exigences en capital. En traçant l’effet de celles-ci sur les ratios de capital des établissements puis sur l’octroi de crédit, il montre qu’augmenter les exigences en capital réduit l’offre de crédit. Le troisième article analyse la prise en compte du risque de crédit sur le marché interbancaire européen entre 2011 et 2015 et comment celle-ci est modifiée par les ajustements de la politique monétaire sur la période. Il se concentre sur le risque inhérent à la détention d’actifs situés dans les pays périphériques de la zone euro. Il montre que l’accès au marché et les taux d’intérêt payés par les emprunteurs réagissent à cette détention. La nature et l’importance de cette réaction dépendent des interventions de politique monétaire. / This thesis is made up of three empirical essays in banking economics. The first paper analyses how credit supply conditions impact access to homeownership and real estate prices.We propose an identification strategy of causal effects based on the French Interest-Free Loan policy. We find loosenning credit conditions allows households with a relatively lower income to access homeownership but significantly increases real estate prices. The second paper looks for the effect of capital requirements on credit supply to non-financial companies.We identify movements in capital requirements exogenous to the macroeconomic environment thanks to the French banking supervisor rating system. We show governance and strategy quality measures significantly contribute to capital requirements setting. Followingtheir effects onto banks capital ratios and credit supply, we show raising capital requirementsreduces credit. The third article analyses credit risk management on the European interbankmarket between 2011 and 2015 and how it is modified by monetary policy adjustments overthe period. We focus on credit risk associated with holdings of assets located in peripheral Europe countries. We show market access and interest rates served to borrowers react to their holdings of such assets. The direction and size of this reaction depends on monetary policy interventions.