Dans un contexte économique mondialisé, les prises de position d’achat et/ou de vente sur les marchés financiers obéissent à des logiques qui échappent parfois à la rationalité (bulle spéculative…). Les prévisionnistes et les analystes financiers mobilisent une boite à outil statistique pour connaître les tendances futures à partir de l’étude des tendances passées. Cette boite à outils repose sur l’hypothèse de normalité des lois statistiques sous jacentes ce qui autorise des logiques d’inférence statistique, de test, de corrélation... On a pu observer par le passé que les résultats de ces projections ont souvent été miss à défaut : la crise financière que nous traversons correspond par exemple à un choc difficilement prévisible même s’il fait l’objet d’une rationalisation a posteriori. Notre objectif, partant de ce constat, est de renouveler les approches traditionnelles des prévisionnistes et analystes financiers en mobilisant deux approches complémentaires : l’intelligence économique appliquée au domaine financier et l’utilisation de techniques modernes de gestion de l’imprévisible. Dans ce travail interdisciplinaire, notre approche s’inspire tout d’abord du concept d’image, de réputation d'une entreprise cible et de la démarche du cycle de renseignement issue de l’approche de l’intelligence économique. De plus, nous pouvons compléter notre démarche à travers les travaux de Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Nous mobilisons enfin le concept de force de situation (François Julien) pour renforcer la décision des investisseurs institutionnels en situation d’incertitude. Pour valider notre contribution théorique, nous avons choisi le Vietnam comme terrain de recherche. A partir d’une approche qualitative conduite auprès de gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens, nous avons pu connaître mieux leurs pratiques de prises de décisions, les critères d’évaluation d’investissement différents issus des analyses de matrices stratégiques, leur perception de la réputation et le rôle de l’intelligence financière dans leur processus d’investissement. Nous proposons alors une méthode qualitative reposant sur la réputation pour caractériser le degré de robustesse d’une organisation à des chocs et élaborons en outre un système de renseignement financier en prenant en compte la hiérarchie des critères d’évaluation d’investissement des gérants de portefeuilles Vietnamiens. Notre démarche est illustrée par l’étude de cas d'une entreprise aquacole Vietnamienne. / In the context of economic globalization, the stand point of purchase and/or sale on the financial market obeys logics which escape sometimes rationality (speculative bubbles…).The forecasters and the financial analysts mobilize one statistical toolbox in order to know the future trends based on the study of the last trends.This toolbox builds on the assumption of normality of the statistical laws underlying which authorizes logics of statistical inference, test, correlation… We could observe in the past which the results of these projections were often failed:the financial crisis which we pass correspondent to a not easily foreseeable shock even if it is the object of a rationalization a posteriori. Our objective,on the basis of thisreport,is to renew the traditional approaches of the forecasters and financial analysts by mobilizing two complementary approaches: business intelligence applied to the financial field and the utilization of modern technologies of management of the unforeseeable risks.In this interdisciplinary work,our approaches are inspired,first of all concept oftheimage or of the reputation of a target company and approach of the intelligence cycle resulting from the approach of the business intelligence.Moreover,we can complete our approach through the principle of bounded rationality,that of the speculative bubble and that of the logic uncertain suggested by Nassim Nicolas Taleb. Finally, we mobilize the concept of force of situation(François Julien) in order to reinforce the decision of the institutional investors in uncertain situation.To validate our theoretical contribution,we chose Viet Nam as our ground of research.From a qualitative approach and based on experimentation ahead 5 Vietnamese portfolio managers, we could better know their practice of making decision, their different investment evaluation criteria, their perception of reputation and the role of the financial intelligence in their process of investment. Thus, we propose a qualitative method based on the reputation in order to characterize the degree of robustness of an organization faced to shocks and elaborate moreover a system of financial information by taking into account the hierarchy of the investment evaluation criteria of the Vietnamese portfolio managers. Our approach is illustrated through a case study of a Vietnamese aquaculture company.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo de estudo a relação envolvendo a periferia e o seu processo de reposição na metrópole de São Paulo, tendo por base o estudo realizado no bairro do Cabuçu, no município de Guarulhos. A complexidade urbana do momento atual comporta diferentes análises no sentido de sua interpretação. Partindo-se desse pressuposto, o que se analisa neste trabalho é a atual condição da periferia na metrópole de São Paulo face as promessas da modernidade relacionada ao desenvolvimento urbano. Essa modernidade, acompanhando a evolução do capitalismo, leva a instituição propriedade privada à posição de centralidade, transformando esta numa das principais marcas da sociedade moderna. Em meio a tantas alternativas acerca da complexidade urbana atual, a escolha aqui feita foi a de analisar a periferia enquanto uma realidade sócio-espacial que, do ponto de vista desta reprodução ampliada, deve ser incessamente resposta ao longo do território da metrópole, não excluindo as contradições inerentes a esse processo. Por sua vez, esse movimento incessante vincula-se ao próprio sentido do urbano, que é reproduzido a partir da lógica do capital, e à impossibilidade no alcance das promessas da modernidade. A metrópole chega à atual fase enquanto um território que, dentre vários outros desdobramentos, passa a enfatizar a relação entre o capital especulativo e o mercado imobiliário. Vem daí a intensificação da especulação imobiliária, que é articulada longo do território da metrópole. Como consequência, a reposição da periferia, que se consubstancia em função do drama cada vez maior da moradia, passa também a ser um movimento articulado nessa mesma metrópole. / This task has as na aim of study the relation which involves the suburb and its processo f replacement in São Paulo city, having as a fundamental support the accomplished study in Cabuçu district in Guarulhos city. The complexity, for the time being keeps diferent analysis in the way of its interpretation starting from this pretext what studies in this task is the presente situation of São Paulo metropolis suburb according to the promises of modernity in the relation to the suburb development. This modernity with the capital evolution takes private property institution to the center point, changing it into the most principal marks of the modern society. Among so many alternatives around the present urban complexity, the done choice here was to analyse the suburb as the reality of associate space that, by the point of view of this bigger reprodution must be constantly replaced in the metropolis land not excluding contradictions inherent into this process. However, this constant movement goes to its own urban way which is remade from a capital logic and impossibility in reaching modernity promises. The metropolis gets to the present moment as a territory that, among several developments, begings emphasizing the link between speculative capital and real state market. From this point, the intensification of speculative real state comes and it is articulated in the metropolis land. By as consequences, the suburb repositiion that gets worse according to the misery which becomes bigger in the dwellings and also becomes being na articulated movement in the same metropolis.

This thesis discusses music's role in utopian community-building by using a case study of a specific composer, Pauline Oliveros, who believed her work could provide a positive "pathway to the future" resembling other utopian visions. The questions of utopian intent, potential, and method are explored through an analysis of Oliveros's untraditional scores, as well as an exploration of Oliveros's writings and secondary accounts from members of the Deep Listening community. This document explores Oliveros's utopian beliefs and practices and outlines important aspects of her utopian vision as they relate to three major utopian models: the traditional "end-state" model, the anarchical model, and the postmodern "method" utopian model. Oliveros exhibits all three models within her work, although this thesis argues that she is, for the most part, a method utopian. While her ceremonial group improvisations like Link/Bonn Feier resemble anarchical works by John Cage, they exhibit a greater interest in the past and in process than most anarchical models allow. Likewise, while her visions of a future aided by AI and bio-technologies appear end-state, her improvisational works with her Electronic Instrument System (EIS) suggest a more process-based, method utopian approach. Her Deep Listening practice is deeply method-utopian, and her Center for Deep Listening can be viewed as an attempt at bringing these method utopian principles to the real world.

Cette thèse de doctorat propose une analyse empirique des microfondations des phénomènes monétaires macroéconomiques, et plus particulièrement des processus d'apprentissage et capacités cognitives requis pour qu'un équilibre émerge dans une économie expérimentale implémentantun modèle de prospection monétaire. Dans ce but, nous avons "opérationalisé" le modèle original de Kiyotaki et Wright et modélisé le comportement de sujets humains à l'aide de différents algorithmes d'apprentissage par renforcement. Nous montrons que les données comportementales sont mieux expliquées par les modèles d'apprentissage par renforcement que par les prédictions des équilibres théoriques, et que la spéculation monétaire semble s'appuyer sur la considération de coûts d'opportunité. Nos résultats constituent une nouvelle étape dans la compréhension des processus d'apprentissage à l'oeuvre dans la prise de décision multiple en économie et des microfondations cognitives de l'utilisation macroéconomique de la monnaie. Parallèlement, cette thèse de doctorat comprend une analyse plus précise de l'une des composantes fondamentales de l'apprentissage par renforcement à savoir, le processus de mise à jour des valeurs. A travers deux études, nous montrons graduellement que ce processus est biaisé en faveur des informations confirmatoires. En effet, nous avons trouvé que des sujets réalisant diverses tâches d'apprentissage probabiliste prenaient en compte préférentiellement les informations qui confirmaient leur pensée initiale. Ces résultats permettent une meilleure compréhension des biais d'optimisme et de confirmation au niveau neuro-computationnel. / This dissertation proposes to analyze empirically the microfoundations of the macroeconomic use of money, more particularly the human learning processes and cognitive abilities requiredfor a monetary equilibrium to emerge in an experimental economy implementing a search theoretical paradigm of money emergence. To achieve this, we operationalized the original Kiyotaki and Wright search model and fitted real subjects' behaviors with different reinforcement learning algorithms. We show that reinforcement learning better explains behavioral datain comparison to theoretical equilibria predictions, and highlight the importance of opportunity costs to implement a speculative use of money. Our results constitute a new step towards the understanding of learning processes at work in multi-step economic decision making and ofthe cognitive microfoundations of the macro-economic use of money. In parallel, this dissertation also compounds in-depth analyses of one of the core components of reinforcement learning,namely the update process. In two studies, we gradually show that the latter is biased positively towards confirmatory information. Indeed, we found that subjects performing different probability learning tasks preferentially took into account information that confirme dtheir initial thoughts in contrast to information that contradicted them. These results constitute a step towards the understanding of the genesis of optimism and confirmation biases at the neurocomputational level.

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007

This thesis proposes a decision-feedback equalizer (DFE) scheme for blind ADC-based receivers to overcome the challenges introduced by blind sampling. It presents the design, simulation, and implementation of a 5Gb/s speculative DFE for a 2x blind ADC-based receiver. The complete receiver, including the ADC, the DFE, and a 2x blind clock and data recovery (CDR) circuit, is implemented in Fujitsu’s 65-nm CMOS process. Measurements of the fabricated test-chip confirm 5Gb/s data recovery with bit error rate (BER) less than 1e−12 in the presence of a test channel introducing 13.3dB of attenuation at the Nyquist frequency of 2.5GHz. The receiver tolerates 0.24UIpp of high-frequency sinusoidal jitter (SJ) in this case. Without the DFE, the BER exceeds 1e−8 even when no SJ is applied.

This thesis proposes a decision-feedback equalizer (DFE) scheme for blind ADC-based receivers to overcome the challenges introduced by blind sampling. It presents the design, simulation, and implementation of a 5Gb/s speculative DFE for a 2x blind ADC-based receiver. The complete receiver, including the ADC, the DFE, and a 2x blind clock and data recovery (CDR) circuit, is implemented in Fujitsu’s 65-nm CMOS process. Measurements of the fabricated test-chip confirm 5Gb/s data recovery with bit error rate (BER) less than 1e−12 in the presence of a test channel introducing 13.3dB of attenuation at the Nyquist frequency of 2.5GHz. The receiver tolerates 0.24UIpp of high-frequency sinusoidal jitter (SJ) in this case. Without the DFE, the BER exceeds 1e−8 even when no SJ is applied.

With the high complexity of modern day microprocessors and the slow speed of cycle-accurate simulations, architects are often unable to adequately evaluate their designs during the architectural exploration phases of chip design. This thesis presents the design and implementation of the timing partition of the cycle-accurate, microarchitecture-level SFFSim-Bear simulator. SFFSim-Bear is an implementation of the speculative functional-first (SFF) methodology, and utilizes a hybrid software-FPGA platform to accelerate simulation throughput. The timing partition, implemented in FPGA, features throughput-oriented, latency-tolerant designs to cope with the challenges of the hybrid platform. Furthermore, a fault injection framework is added to this implementation that allows designers to study the reliability aspects of their processors. The result is a simulator that is fast, accurate, flexible, and extensible. / text

In this thesis we examine the ability of the log-periodic power law model to accurately predict the end of speculative bubbles on financial markets through modeling of asset price dynamics on a selection of historical bubbles. The methods we use are based on a nonlinear least squares estimation which yields predictions of when the bubble will change regime.We find evidence which support the occurrence of LPPL-patterns leading up to the change in regime; asset prices during bubble periods seem to oscillate around a faster-than-exponential growth. In most cases the estimation yields accurate predictions, although we conclude that the predictions are quite dependent on at which point in time the prediction is conducted. We also find that the end of a speculative bubble seems to be influenced by both endogenous speculative growth and exogenous factors. For this reason we propose a new way of interpreting the predictions of the model, where the end dates should be interpreted as the start of a time period where the asset prices are especially sensitive to exogenous events. We propose that negative news during this time period results in a regime shift of the bubble. This study is the first to address both the possibilities and the limitations of the LPPL-model, and should therefore be considered as a contribution to the academia.

One of the most striking features of contemporary Scottish fiction has been its shift from the predominantly realist novels of the 1960s and 1970s to an engagement with very different modes of writing, from the mixture of realism and visionary future satire in Alasdair Gray’s Lanark (1981) to the Rabelaisian absurdity and excess of Irvine Welsh’s Filth (1998). This development has received considerable critical attention, energising debates concerning how such writing relates to or challenges familiar tropes of identity and national culture. At the same time, however, there has been a very striking and commercially successful rise in the production of popular genre literature in Scotland, in categories which have included speculative fiction and crime fiction. Although Scottish literary fiction of recent decades has been studied in great depth, Scottish popular genre literature has received considerably less critical scrutiny in comparison. Therefore, the aim of my research is to examine popular Scottish writing of the stated period in order to reflect upon whether a significant relationship can be discerned between genre fiction and the mainstream of Scottish literary fiction, and to consider the characteristics of such a connection between these different modes of writing. To achieve this objective, the dissertation will investigate whether the features of any such shared literary concerns are inclined to vary between the mainstream of literary fiction in Scotland and two different, distinct forms of popular genre writing. My research will take up the challenge of engaging with the popular genres of speculative fiction and crime fiction during the years 1975 to 2006. I intend to discuss the extent to which the national political and cultural climate of the period under discussion informed the narrative form and social commentary of such works, and to investigate the manner in which, and the extent to which, a specific and identifiably Scottish response to these ideological matters can be identified in popular prose fiction during this period. This will be done by discussing and comparing eight novels in total; four for each chosen popular genre. From the field of speculative fiction, I will examine texts by the authors Iain M. Banks, Ken MacLeod, Margaret Elphinstone and Matthew Fitt. The discussion will then turn to crime fiction, with an analysis of novels by Ian Rankin, Christopher Brookmyre, Denise Mina and Louise Welsh. As well as evaluating the work of each author and its relevance to other texts in the field, consideration will be given to the significance of each novel under discussion to wider considerations of ideology, genre and national identity which were ongoing both at the time of their publication and in subsequent years. The dissertation’s conclusion will then consider the nature of the relationship between the popular genres which have been examined and the mainstream of Scottish literary fiction within the period indicated above.