O Acordo de Basiléia, divulgado pelo Comitê de Basiléia em 1988, tornou mais seguros os sistemas financeiros dos países que o adotaram. Porém, juntamente com isso, ocorreram outros impactos em função da implementação do Acordo. A partir da publicação do Acordo de Basiléia II, que tem o objetivo de dar ainda maior solidez ao mercado financeiro, novas implicações são esperadas. A presente pesquisa tem como objetivo avaliar os possíveis impactos sobre o Sistema Financeiro Brasileiro com a implantação de Basiléia II. Para isso, realizou-se um estudo exploratório do Acordo e uma pesquisa quantitativa do impacto sobre os bancos brasileiros com a criação da exigência de capital para risco operacional proposta por Basiléia II. Através do estudo, percebeu-se que a exigência de capital para risco operacional não trará grandes impactos aos bancos brasileiros, visto que as instituições bancárias do país já atuam com índices acima dos que virão a ser exigidos. Verificou-se ainda que até o presente momento não ocorreu variação estatisticamente significativa dos indicadores de Índice de Basiléia e endividamento das instituições financeiras analisadas. Já o indicador de rentabilidade apresentou uma variação positiva. / Submitted by Marcelo Teixeira (mvteixeira@ucs.br) on 2014-05-22T19:40:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Rodrigo E Bampi.pdf: 499039 bytes, checksum: 686ab27b7f91e30890928db8d513e94b (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-05-22T19:40:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Rodrigo E Bampi.pdf: 499039 bytes, checksum: 686ab27b7f91e30890928db8d513e94b (MD5) / The Basel Accord, published by the Basel Committee in 1988, made more secure the financial systems of the countries that adopted it occurred; and along with this, other impacts recurrent to the implementation of the Accord. From the publication of the Second Basel Accord (Basel II), which aims to give more strength to the financial market, new implications are expected. The present research has the objective to evaluate the possible impacts of the implementation of the Basel II on the Brazilian Financial System. Consequently, were realized an exploratory study on the second Accord and a quantitative research of its impact on the Brazilian banks with the creation of the exigency of capital for operational risk proposed by Basel II. Through this study, it was perceived that the capital requirement for operational risk will not have a big impact on the major Brazilian banks, considering that Brazilian banks already operate with rates above the ones that will be required by the Accord. It was also found that, at the moment, the indicators of indebtedness and Basel´s Index have not presented statistically significant variation on the financial institutions analyzed. The indicator of profitability has kept a positive variation.

O Acordo de Basiléia, divulgado pelo Comitê de Basiléia em 1988, tornou mais seguros os sistemas financeiros dos países que o adotaram. Porém, juntamente com isso, ocorreram outros impactos em função da implementação do Acordo. A partir da publicação do Acordo de Basiléia II, que tem o objetivo de dar ainda maior solidez ao mercado financeiro, novas implicações são esperadas. A presente pesquisa tem como objetivo avaliar os possíveis impactos sobre o Sistema Financeiro Brasileiro com a implantação de Basiléia II. Para isso, realizou-se um estudo exploratório do Acordo e uma pesquisa quantitativa do impacto sobre os bancos brasileiros com a criação da exigência de capital para risco operacional proposta por Basiléia II. Através do estudo, percebeu-se que a exigência de capital para risco operacional não trará grandes impactos aos bancos brasileiros, visto que as instituições bancárias do país já atuam com índices acima dos que virão a ser exigidos. Verificou-se ainda que até o presente momento não ocorreu variação estatisticamente significativa dos indicadores de Índice de Basiléia e endividamento das instituições financeiras analisadas. Já o indicador de rentabilidade apresentou uma variação positiva. / The Basel Accord, published by the Basel Committee in 1988, made more secure the financial systems of the countries that adopted it occurred; and along with this, other impacts recurrent to the implementation of the Accord. From the publication of the Second Basel Accord (Basel II), which aims to give more strength to the financial market, new implications are expected. The present research has the objective to evaluate the possible impacts of the implementation of the Basel II on the Brazilian Financial System. Consequently, were realized an exploratory study on the second Accord and a quantitative research of its impact on the Brazilian banks with the creation of the exigency of capital for operational risk proposed by Basel II. Through this study, it was perceived that the capital requirement for operational risk will not have a big impact on the major Brazilian banks, considering that Brazilian banks already operate with rates above the ones that will be required by the Accord. It was also found that, at the moment, the indicators of indebtedness and Basel´s Index have not presented statistically significant variation on the financial institutions analyzed. The indicator of profitability has kept a positive variation.

The master's thesis analyses the contemporary corporate governance standards and their legal framework. The paper describes the development of different corporate governance principles and the key legal pieces that regulate the corporate governance area (eg. Sarbanes-Oxley, Basel II, EC regulation). The core of the paper focuses on corporate governance failures that led to the current financial crisis, analyses their link to the corporate governance principles and describes the trends for development in the corporate governance regulation.

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the use of effect sizes to report the results of statistical credit rating models in a more practical way. Rating systems in the form of statistical probability models like logistic regression models are used to forecast the behaviour of clients and guide business in rating clients as “high” or “low” risk borrowers. Therefore, model results were reported in terms of statistical significance as well as business language (practical significance), which business experts can understand and interpret. In this thesis, statistical results were expressed as effect sizes like Cohen‟s d that puts the results into standardised and measurable units, which can be reported practically. These effect sizes indicated strength of correlations between variables, contribution of variables to the odds of defaulting, the overall goodness-of-fit of the models and the models‟ discriminating ability between high and low risk customers. / Statistics / M. Sc. (Statistics)

鑒於金融機構跨業經營乃係現況發展趨勢，而風險管理已成為金融機構業務管理之首務，本研究將探討國際金融機構風險管理的新規範－新版巴賽爾資本協定（Basel II），並蒐集民國八十三年六月至民國九十二年三月我國上市公司公開發行之財務資訊，分別以商業銀行、證券公司、人壽保險公司、產物保險公司及票券公司為代表，模擬為金融控股公司下之各個子公司，將結合營運性、風險性、及法令為考量之資本配置模型；進一步探討金融控股公司之風險管理與資本配置。 歸納模擬結果如下： 以營運性為考量並配合法令要求之資本配置，此配置模型係在設定盈餘目標下，追求風險極小值，或設定風險容忍水準，以追求盈餘之極大值。經過目標值的變動下，此最適化模型可得一效率前緣曲線。由此效率前緣圖可知，在盈餘維持在平均盈餘水準下，此模型可使風險值由原來的8,860佰萬元降至7,045佰萬元，其降幅為20%，RAROC由原來的0.77升至0.97，升幅為25%；若固定風險值在原來未分配前的平均水準，則盈餘由先前的7,681佰萬元提升至8,821佰萬元，其提升幅度為14%，RAROC由原來的0.77提升至0.90，提升幅度為16%，亦相當可觀。若將資本維持在歷史平均水準，則可使其盈餘達到7,305佰萬元，而風險值為6,446佰萬元，RAROC為1.00，升幅為29%。據此推論，依此配置模型分配結果，將可改善整體金融控股公司之經營績效。 綜合營運性、風險性並考量法令要求之資本分配模型，納入了風險限制條件，主要係考量高風險之業務，須有高資本以因應其非預期性損失，但同時為兼顧經營績效，必須在營運性與風險性間求得平衡點；實證結果發現，受到風險性限制條件的影響，使得此條效率前緣曲線均落在以營運性為考量資本配置模型之下方，這代表的是在此模型下，無法達到較高之盈餘，原因來自於高盈餘伴隨著高風險，但高風險在此配置模型中是不允許的。惟此模型依然有提升整體經營績效的功能。例如，將盈餘目標設為原來的7,681佰萬元，則風險值降為7,601佰萬元，降幅約14%，RAROC也提升至0.90，升幅為16%；若資本維持在平均水準177,185佰萬元，則盈餘可達到5,802佰萬元，風險值則為4,528佰萬元，RAROC為1.09，較原先高出41%。 / As cross business managing is the modern development trend and risk management has been the first task for the financial institutions, this study attempts to analyze the new standard of the international financial institutions’ risk management – new Basel II. The data concerning business operations, risks, regulations from June 1992 to March 2003 are collected for each group of commercial banks, security houses, life insurance companies, non-life insurance companies, bill finance companies to build a capital allocation model. The financial holding companies’ risk management and capital allocation is further discussed. The results of this study are summarized as follows: The capital allocation model considers business operations and regulations. This allocation model sets up profit target, seeks minimum risk or sets up level of risk tolerance to seek maximum profit. After the variable target, the suitable model can get a efficient frontier curve. From this curve we find out that the profit maintains under the average profit level. The model can make Value-at-Risk reduce from 8,860 million to 7,045 million, down 20%, RAROC rise from 0.77 to 0.97, up 25%; if the fixed Value-at-Risk is before distributing, the profit will rise from 7,681 mission to 8,821 million, up 14%, RAROC will rise from 0.77 to 0.90, up 16%, still outstanding. If the capital remains at historical average level, then the profit can reach 7,305 million, and the Value-at-Risk is 6,446 million, RAROC is 1.00, up 29%. According to the inference, the distributing result of the allocation model can improve the operation performance of the financial holding company. The capital allocation model synthesize operation, risk and consider legal requirement, bring into the restriction of risk is to consider high risky business should have high capital to deal with unexpected loss, but also to consider operation performance, need to seek balance between operation and risk; From the result of this study finds that under risk restriction, the efficient frontier curve is within the capital allocation model which considers operation, this means under the model, higher profit is hard to achieve, the reason is high profit accompanies high risk, and high risk is prohibited from the model. But this model still has the function to approve whole operation performance. For example, if the profit target is 7,681 million as original, the Value-at-Risk will reduce to 7,601 million, down 14%, RAROC will rise to 0.90, up 16%; if the capital remains at the average level’s 177,185 million, the profit can reach 5,802 million, the Value-at-Risk is 4,528 million and RAROC is 1.09, up 41%.

2008年，美國華爾街危機影響全球金融市場，即使美國擬出許多救市計畫，全球股市依舊暴跌。在此危機衝擊下，各大金融機構不但利潤下滑，且資產減記和信貸損失也愈來愈嚴重。造成此一現象的主因即是次級房貸的影響，次級房貸主要是針對收入低、信用不佳卻需要貸款購屋的民眾，這類客戶通常借貸不易，倘若銀行內部沒有完善的評等機制那放款則需承受較大的違約風險。為因應此趨勢，本研究以台灣未上市中小企業為實例，資料的觀察期間為2003至2005年，透過資料採礦流程，建構企業違約風險模型及其信用評等系統。 本研究分別利用羅吉斯迴歸、類神經網路、和分類迴歸樹三種方法建立模型並加以評估比較其預測能力。發現羅吉斯迴歸模型對於違約戶的預測能力及有效性皆優於其他兩者，並選定為本研究之最終模型，並對選定之模型作評估及驗證，發現模型的預測能力表現尚屬穩定，確實能夠在銀行授信流程實務中加以應用。 / In 2008, the financial crisis on Wall Street had severe impacted the global economy. Although the US government has drawn up regulatory policies in an attempt to save the stock market, the value of global stock market has shrunk drastically. As such, the profits of many financial institutes’ have not only plunged, their value of assets have decreased while loss related to mortgage became more severe. The main cause behind this global phenomenon can be attributed to the effect of subprime mortgages. Subprime mortgages are mainly aimed at consumers who have low income and poor credit history but wish to purchase homes through the means of mortgage. These consumers usually find it difficult to obtain mortgage loans. If banks do not have a well structured evaluation system, they would have to bear more risks in the case of a default. To better understand this trend, this research chooses middle and small private enterprises as its samples. The period of observation is 2003 to 2005. Using the data mining process, this research builds a model that shows the risk associated with contract failure and credit score system. The research builds a model based on logistic regression, Neural Network, and cart to compare and contrast each of the three model’s ability to predict. The result shows that logistic regression is better at predicting defaults and is more effective than the other two models. The research, therefore, concludes logistic regression model as the research’s final model to study and evaluate. In process, the research result demonstrates that the logistic regression model makes more precise prediction and its prediction is fairly stable. Logistic regression model is capable for banks to employ in performing credit check.

Diploma thesis "Optimization capital charges in VaR model utilizing dynamic risk management strategies" deals with banks opportunity to reduce Basel capital requirements via estimation volatility in VaR model for separate time periods differently. It analyses current crisis, its sources, process, but especially its influence of new worldwide accepted regulatory standards, which require nearly doubled regulatory capital. Regarding high impact to industry return on equity the thesis discusses the possibility of dynamic capital optimization based on alternating conservative and aggressive risk management strategies. Empirical part of thesis tests outcomes of volatility modeling based on historical quotes of six European indexes since 2003, which are classified by volatility levels and broken down into several time periods. We suggest approach which enables financial institutions to reduce the impact of new Basel rules on their ROE, while they meet all VaR model conditions defined by the regulator. However, there are also negative consequences of this lowering level of capital represented by increasing failure rates of models. Although banks are able by suggested approach to achieve capital reduction by 20 percent, they are in the same time forced to use one of a very aggressive strategies. Dynamic...

The thesis focuses on internal management and control systems in connection with operational risk management (ORM) process. The Basel II concept is outlined from the operational risk point of view, incl. methods for capital requirement for operational risk. Consequently, essential regulatory requirements and bank standards for effective management and control systems are specified. ORM tools that are potentially able to capture business environment and internal controls factors (to be regarded within AMA models) are disserted, specially concentrating on key risk indicators. Construction of this ORM tool is designed on a theoretical basis and also on an example related to payment systems. There is an evaluation of advantages, challenges and possible ways to use this method.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:25:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Gustavo de Magalhaes Rezende.pdf: 1393519 bytes, checksum: 29eb5b0b0c12d95da19bb067fc0df68c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-08 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / Basel II Accord will allow banks in Brazil to calculate their capital requirements using internal ratings based on the advanced IRB (Internal Rating-Based) approach, depending on their credit risk exposure. The main modeling components that must be estimated are the probability of default (PD), loss given default (LGD) and exposure at default (EAD). The aim of this dissertation is to estimate the parameter LGD using different models found in the literature in order to compare the obtained results. For that, the credit portfolios within this study will be simulated via Monte Carlo simulation, due to the difficulty in getting real losses data. / O acordo de Basileia II no Brasil vai permitir que os bancos utilizem modelos internos, na abordagem IRB avançada (Internal Rating-Based), que sirvam de base para o cálculo dos requisitos mínimos de capital em função do nível de exposição ao risco de crédito. Dentre os principais componentes estimados estão a probabilidade de default (PD probability of default), a perda dado o default (LGD loss given default) e a exposição no default (EAD exposure at default). Esta dissertação tem como objetivo realizar estimativas de LGD utilizando alguns modelos descritos na literatura e comparando os resultados obtidos. Para tanto, os portfólios de crédito do estudo serão simulados através de técnicas de Monte Carlo, dada a escassez de dados de perdas reais.

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the use of effect sizes to report the results of statistical credit rating models in a more practical way. Rating systems in the form of statistical probability models like logistic regression models are used to forecast the behaviour of clients and guide business in rating clients as “high” or “low” risk borrowers. Therefore, model results were reported in terms of statistical significance as well as business language (practical significance), which business experts can understand and interpret. In this thesis, statistical results were expressed as effect sizes like Cohen‟s d that puts the results into standardised and measurable units, which can be reported practically. These effect sizes indicated strength of correlations between variables, contribution of variables to the odds of defaulting, the overall goodness-of-fit of the models and the models‟ discriminating ability between high and low risk customers. / Statistics / M. Sc. (Statistics)