依據天津市於改革開放後（1978年~2010年）農業投入產出資料建立了隨機邊界生產函數模型，並對天津農業生產效率進行了測算和分析。研究結果發現天津的農業增長主要依賴流動資本的投入，另因天津市地理環境因素，溫度高低及降雨量多寡在農業生產效率中也具有關鍵影響力，農業生產技術效率水準隨時間增加有逐漸提升趨勢，政府財政支農及農業貸款的數字逐年提升，但研究結果顯示政府財政支農金額及農業貸款對於天津農業生產效率無影響。 / Based on the agricultural input and output data from Tianjin City after the reform and opening (1978~2010), a random marginal productivity function model was built. And tests and analyses regarding the agricultural production efficiency in Tianjin City were performed. According to the research results, the agricultural growth in Tianjin City mainly depended on the input of current capital. In addition, due to the geographic and environmental factors in Tianjin City, temperature and rainfall both played an important role in the agricultural production efficiency. The agricultural production technology level had been increasing with time. The amounts of the government’s financial support for agriculture and agricultural loans had been increasing year by year. However, the research results show that these amounts had no influence on the agricultural production efficiency in Tianjin City.

1978年中國大陸改革開放，吹皺經濟市場一池春水。住房公有制、住房福利制觀念相繼被打破，揭開房產制度改革曙光。鄧小平在1992年南巡講話後，定調「有中國特色社會主義市場經濟」的基本路線，從根本上解決市場經濟意識形態問題，自此中國大陸房地產市場活水澈底被激發。近十餘年來，中國大陸全國商品房平均價格從2000年2,112元人民幣，攀升至2010年5,032元人民幣，部分重點城市如北京、上海、廣州..等更早已突破萬元人民幣大關。 房產市場不對稱發展加深中國大陸社會結構性矛盾與衝突對立，高房價顯然無益其國內經濟健全發展，這也讓大陸中央不得不正視此一嚴肅問題積極採取宏觀調控手段，企圖壓制漲勢不斷的房價期能消彌廣大民怨。而與之同時因為覬覦中國大陸經濟高速發展背後廣大利益而競相投入中國市場的外資也就格外引起大陸政府的關注，因為「外資炒房」的傳言與疑慮一直困擾著中共當局，在高房價、高民怨的氛圍壟罩下，產官學界檢討外資聲浪甚囂塵上；然而，高房價的背後是否一定有外資刻意炒作？值得探究與思考。 本研究嘗試以中國大陸天津做為觀察標的，運用共整合ARDL模型探討外商直接投資（FDI）對房地產價格波動的影響，釐清外資在房地產價格所扮演的角色。實證模型並納入物價指數（CPI）、人均收入（INC）、貸款利率（INT）、匯率（EXC）與股價（STOCK）為解釋變數，以做為觀察總體經濟因素對大陸房地產市場的影響。實證結果表明，在短期關係上外資的確有拉抬房價效果，不過長期關係影響並不顯著，顯示外資不是實際推升房地產價格的主因，角色定位應為「從犯」而非「主嫌」。研究結果並發現，匯率變動對房地產價格有著顯著實質影響，這意味如果大陸政府要運用匯率這項工具來抑制漲勢不斷的房價，就必須讓人民幣適時升值。不過目前中國大陸仍屬以出口導向為大宗的國家，長期而言，人民幣升值將對其出口造成某種程度衝擊，是以在匯率政策的操作上恐陷入兩難（升值或貶值)的困境。 / The reform and opening in mainland China in 1978 had fretted the surface of the water of the economic market. The concepts of public housing and housing welfare system had been broken, leading to a line of hope in the reform of the house property system. After Xiaoping Deng's speech during his south tour, he set up the basic route of the "socialism market economy with Chinese features", resolving the market economy ideology issue from the root. Since then, the house property market in Chine has been activated. In the recent decade, the average price of commercial residential buildings had increased from YMB$2,112 in 2000 to YMB$5,032 in 2010. In major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, the prices had already went over YMB$10,000. The asymmetric development of the house property market has further caused structural conflicts and confrontations in Mainland China. Apparently, high housing prices were not beneficial to the sound development of the domestic economy. And thus the central government in Mainland China had to face up to this serious problem and aggressively took the microscope controlling measure in the attempt to suppress the increasing housing prices to resolve people's complaints. In the mean time, under the desire for the great profits behind the rapid development of the economy in Mainland China, foreign funds had entered the Chinese market one by one, getting some extra attention of the Chinese government. Because the rumor of "foreign funds in real estate speculation" and some doubles had continuously bothered the Chinese government, under the atmosphere with high housing prices and high social grievance, requests for reviewing foreign funds in the industrial, governmental, academic, and research circles were very broad. However, whether there was real estate speculation with foreign funds behind high housing prices is worth thinking and studying. Using Tianjin City in Mainland China as a target for observation, this study attempted to apply the autoregressive ARDL model to explore the influences of foreign direct investment (FDI) on price changes in housing property, in order to clarify the role foreign funds play in real estate prices. The independent variables included in the model were consumer price index (CPI), per capita income (INC), loan interest (INT), exchange rate (EXC), and stock price (STOCK), in order to observe the influences of the macro economical factors on the Chinese real estate market. According to the empirical results, in the short run, foreign funds could indeed drive up housing prices. However, in the long run, the influence was not significant. This means foreign funds are not the main cause driving up real estate prices. The role they played was a "partner in crime" instead of a "main suspect". The study found that there was indeed a significant and substantial influence of exchange rate changes on real estate prices, meaning that if the Chinese government would like to surprise increasing housing prices using exchange rates as a tool, it is necessary to allow YMB appreciation. However, currently, Mainland China is still a country with mainly exports. In the long run, YMB appreciation may lead to certain impact on China's exportation. Therefore, operating exchange rate related policies may lead to a dilemma (to appreciate or depreciate).

Set against the backdrop of the crisis of cultural expression and global assimilation existing in many cities in China, modern house forms of limited types are copied and mass-produced, regardless of local culture, topography and climate. Typo-morphological study has been identified and developed as a base for theoretical discussion and empirical case studies, mainly focusing on the relationship between elements of form. In this study, it is used to systematically investigate diverse early mass-housing built in China in the period from the beginning of the 20th century to the onset of the Anti-Japanese War in 1937. The mass-housings in Qingdao, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Hong Kong, six significant colonial cities in China, are selected as case studies. The early mass-housing was a new leading building type of the time, successfully meeting the needs of occupants, and becoming valuable assets from which people can derive benefits. However, most scholars have only investigated the early mass-housing from an isolated perspective, thereby forfeiting the opportunity to identify what is important to that particular localized building culture, what distinguishes it from other cultures, and intrinsic characteristics originating from that locale. Therefore, comparative analysis of the early mass-housing is necessary to identify and explore characteristics significant in cultural and environmental adaptation. Moreover, such an analysis helps develop a better understanding of the evolution of the housing in context. Based on an extensive literature review, this research selects significant and representative examples from the six cities. Assisted by a systematic typo-morphological framework formulated by Conzen, Caniggia and Kropf, this study investigates the morphological characteristics of these examples at fabric and building levels. A comparative analysis is then undertaken of the components of these housing estates within a typological process, which is inherent in the sequence of building types and characterizes an area. Finally, it gets the conclusion that such housing in these cities share few morphological patterns; meanwhile, diversity and contradictions also exist for reasons that go beyond varying climates and geographical locations. By building up the typological process, this study (with certain qualifications), is able to explore the constituent parts or elements of housing forms and their interaction in the formation process, which can have implications for the further housing development. / published_or_final_version / Architecture / Master / Master of Philosophy

本論文利用超穩定機器的概念，用以解釋天津城市成長轉型的路徑選擇，三個觀察的指標包括支柱產業的選擇、土地政策的更迭以及行政區劃的調整成果。既有針對中國大陸城市治理的文獻概以成長機器作為主軸。但本文認為，受政績誘因以及中央地方關係制約下的初始條件影響，1980年代的天津以超穩定機器而非成長機器的方式運作，具體運作面向包括漸進的經濟改革、具福利性質的土地使用政策以及對外資的保守與防範。事實證明，當時建立的產業發展方向、土地運用制度與城市內部行政體制，對於天津今天在加速經濟增長階段仍然具有相當的影響力。天津經濟轉型過程中呈現的路徑依賴特質，也突顯出地方政府從超穩定機器邁向成長機器轉型的過程中，實際上涉及了學習與轉化的考驗。 / This dissertation aims to identify the patterns of urban transition in China that uses Tianjin as a specific case. In order to illustrate my argument, an analytical approach that combines path dependence and pro-stability machine is employed. Existing literature that attempts to explore the dynamics of urban development in China has been made predominantly on the basis of the “growth machine” model, which takes the growth of cities as a result of interaction among some internal urban-based players for pecuniary gains and property development. Yet, I argue that Tianjin as a pro-stability machine in the 1980s and the story background was bounded by the official’s incentive of promotion and initial provincial conditions backed by the central government influences. This dissertation identifies three core issues in relation to the pro-stability machine, including: incremental reform in economic area, welfare implication in land use policies and conservative attitude toward foreign forces. Such issues associated with challenges of rapid urban growth in Tianjin today: the selection of pillar industries, reforming land policies and drastic administrative restructuring in Binhai New Area. This dissertation argues that Tianjin’s experience significantly highlights difficulties faced with local governments when they confront with the ‘path dependency’ dilemma in economic transition. The Tianjin government has to not only adjust itself to the roles shifted from a pro-stability machine to a developmental machine but also deal with the accompanied challenges of learning and transformation. It seeks to fill the gap in the existing literature that pays scant attention to the urban renewal experience in Tianjin as a traditionally significant developmental center in north China. This dissertation, therefore, will make important contribution in two aspects. First, it will shed light on the institutional reform process in Tianjin that is critical to the developmental catch-up of the city. Second, it will offer a fresh insight into the debates upon the urban development models in contemporary China.

天津經過百年來的努力發展，以及改革開放後濱海新區在「十一五規劃」被納入國家發展戰略，不但成為中國大陸高收入的城市，亦是眾多外資亟欲前往的投資地點。從天津三級產業結構的觀察，可以發現雖然目前天津的第二、三級產業的分布仍與先進國家有所落差，但整體來說，仍是逐漸從二三一的產業結構往三二一的產業結構發展。但1997年至2006年仍發生工業化現象，即工業部門產值比重增加。這段時間亦伴隨產業升級，使得產業結構從消費財產業轉成為資本財產業。由政策上觀察，此結果主要與天津濱海新區的發展關係最密切。 從本研究的ARDL時間序列模型的估計中發現，造成天津工業化的最主要因素為資本勞動比的提升與貿易依存度的增加，而造成產業升級的主要因素則為外資與財政的科技支出。天津政府在經濟迅速發展的條件下，調節產業結構的均衡發展亦是重要任務，使得天津以及中國大陸其他城市能夠早日進入已開發國家的產業結構模式。 / After centuries of efforts to develop and the Binhai New Area being writing into national development strategies in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" after reform and open-up, Tianjin has not only become the high-income cities in mainland China, but also a location that many foreign investment is anxious to go. According to the observation of Thrice Industrial structure in Tianjin, there is a big gap that the distribution of Tianjin’s secondary and tertiary industry with compared with other advanced countries. However, on the whole, there is still a gradual shift from the industrial structure of two-three-one to three-two-one. From 1997 to 2006, there is still a phenomenon of industrialization in Tianjin, which means that the percentage of secondary industry increasing the whole industrial sectors’ GDP. It’s also accompanied with industrial upgrading, which means that industrial structure will turn from consumer goods industries to capital property industries. From the prospect of policy, this result is most closely related to the development of the Tianjin Binhai New Area. By using ARDL time series model, this study estimates found that the most important factor of Tianjin industrialization was the capital-labor ratio improvement and the increase of trade dependence. The main factor of causing the industrial upgrading was the foreign investment and finance spending on technology. Under the rapid economic development, adjusting the industrial structure for balanced development is also Tianjin Government’s important task that could help Tianjin and other cities in mainland China as early as possible to enter the mode of development of the country's industrial structure.

2009年中國大陸正式超越德國，成為全球最大出口國，顯示中國大陸在國際貿易市場的重要地位，而天津市以16.4%經濟成長速度成為2011 年中國大陸各省區中，經濟增長最快速的城市。同時，也為英國《經濟學人智庫》2012年公布全球最具經濟競爭力城市。中國大陸傳統產業升級，天津市經濟轉型成功，以及天津市具有沿海的外貿地緣及資源優勢，外貿帶動經濟發展前景不容小覷。 本研究針對天津市外貿及觀察各類出口產品結構變化，以SITC國際貿易標準分類，以顯著性比較利益法及波士頓矩陣分析，探討天津市各項出口產品的比較利益分析。 此外，本研究利用實證模型分析影響天津整體出口額之因素中，將各項自變數分類為要素因素、外部拉動因素以及金融因素之三大影響因素，研究方法先以進行單根檢定（unit-root test），確定變數資料成為定態(stationary)，再以迴歸分析方式，藉此檢驗各項變數與天津外貿之間因果關係為何。 / China overtaken Germany as the world's top merchandise exporter in 2009 from WTO data, demonstrates trade status of China in the international trade market. Tianjin posted the fastest growth rates of 16.4 percent among the provinces in China in 2011 as well as ranked as top city in 2012 of economic strength in the global competitiveness by EIU. Trade transition from traditional industry in China transformed the impetus of foreign trade successfully bringing economy prospects in Tianjin with superiority of geography and resources. The research utilized RCA and BCG analysis to observe significance and comparative advantage of each kind of Tianjin’s export products classified by SITC international trade standard method. Moreover, the research selected several affects factors categorized as fundamental element、global propelling and financial factor to examine each variable would be influential and the relation on foreign trade in Tianjin by regression analysis.

Over three decades of rapid economic growth in China, beginning in 1978, has been accompanied by ever-enlarging urban-rural inequalities in terms of the various aspects of income, welfare, infrastructure, medical treatment, and education (amongst others). These two parts – the urban and the rural - have long been treated separately, without much consideration being given to their mutual linkages (relations). Urban and rural development can, essentially, be interpreted as the deployment of key factors (terms of trade for agricultural products, land requisition, and labor transfer), and the supply of public goods and services (infrastructure, education, insurance, and medical care). Thus, the urban-rural inequalities experienced by China at present can be understood as the consequence of the factor flows (labor, capital, goods, information, and technology, etc.) and agglomeration between these two parts. This thesis aims to investigate urban-rural relations in China in the post-reform era, and their influences on the economic, social, and environmental development in both the urban and the rural areas. The thesis consists of five papers and the cover essay. The first two papers provide a detailed picture of urban-rural relations in China, while the other papers examine the impact of urban-rural relations in terms of population mobility, arable and built land use change, and regional economic inequality in the study area. The findings of the thesis reveal that urban-rural relations in China became gradually intensified in the post-reform era, especially when the central government initiated a shift from a situation of urban bias to comprehensive support for the rural areas. However, the mutual resource flows in the study area still tend to agglomerate in the urban districts, while only reaching the rural peripheries to a limited extent. This is demonstrated in the way in which the urban districts experienced fast and large scale demographic growth and land use change, while slow and small-scale demographic and land use change took place in the peripheries. The urban-rural interface, which is situated between the urban and rural areas, evidences medium-level resource agglomeration. This thesis, through the discussion which it sets out, emphasizes the necessity of exercising both political and market forces in order to achieve balanced urban-rural resource flows in China. Another implication for policy making is to develop more sub-centers at the peri-urban or periphery, making these areas the interface for urban-rural resource linkages. / QC 20110909

Child poverty is a troubling issue over the world. Many scholars and professionals have devoted themselves to alleviating and eliminating child poverty. However, hundreds of millions of children in the world are still suffering from poverty. In China, poverty is a serious social problem. Chinese government did intervene heavily in poverty alleviation in the last decades. But so far, compared to other social problems, the scholars and policy-makers in China have paid less attention to the issue of child poverty. In light of these developments, this study, based on a children's right perspective, sets out to identify the basic characteristics of urban child poverty as well as the basic needs of poor children. Further, it gauges urban poverty's social, economic and psychological impacts on the children and effects of current social policies. Qualitative methodology, including in-depth interviews and focus group methods, is adopted in this study. Some 19 poor families were interviewed in 2006-2007. / The main findings of this research are as follows: (1) There is no access to health insurance which threatens poor urban children's survival and health; (2) Educational fees, especially expensive compulsory education, compromise the right of development on the basic of equal opportunity. In addition, the existence of key schools and classes gives rise to educational stratification; (3) Basic rights of survival, development and protection of poor urban children are satisfied to a certain extent, but the right of participation is overlooked; (4) Poor families take on too much burden to realize children's rights and needs. Although the government provides some assistance, current social policies have many problems to meet the basic needs and they could not satisfy the child rights due to absence of and ineffective policies, strategies and social services; (5) Support from families, especially from grandparents, is indispensable for children's needs and rights. / This research reviews international experiences to draw attention in China to child poverty as well as to family and adult poverty, which will be helpful to future studies on this issue. We believe the Convention on the Rights of the Child is a basic policy framework to guide the implementation of children's rights and government obligations in China. Actually, the Chinese government should take a more positive attitude towards child poverty. More children's living and developmental indices should be collated and added in national statistics and more studies on child poverty should be encouraged. Universal and low-charge public social services, including education, health, social work and other basic welfare services, should be provided. Safety net and incentive employment policy should be implemented to secure poor people and stimulate them to get rid of poverty by employment. In brief, as a state party of The Convention on the Rights of the Child, Chinese government should work out more concrete policies and strategies to show respect to children's rights, and children's rights can be adopted as Chinese child policy model in the future. / 姜妙屹. / Adviser: Kwong-Leung Tang. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 70-09, Section: A, page: . / Thesis (doctoral)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 350-392). / Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web. / Abstracts in Chinese and English. / School code: 1307. / Jiang Miaoyi.

Cette thèse cherche à offrir de nouveaux éclairages sur le déploiement territorial des concessions étrangères en Chine aux XIXe et XXe siècles. Bien que la période étudiée s’étende de 1846 à la rétrocession des dernières concessions en 1946, un accent particulier est placé sur la décennie 1910 qui annonce l’essoufflement définitif des logiques expansionnistes. La première partie s’articule autour de l’analyse du projet d’extension mené par la Municipalité française de Tianjin de 1902 à 1946 dans le quartier de Laoxikai 老西開. Cet exemple emblématique sert de pilier et de tremplin pour l’écriture d’une histoire connectée de l’expansion des concessions étrangères. Le cas d’étude centré sur Tianjin permet de structurer la réflexion qui s’élargit, dans une deuxième partie, à Shanghai et Hankou. La mise en perspective de ces trois villes dévoile les principes et conditions dans lesquels évoluent les impérialismes étrangers en Chine, du rôle moteur joué par leur compétition mutuelle aux mécanismes d’échange et d’accommodement avec les fonctionnaires officiels et les citadins chinois. Elle révèle également la difficile posture et la faiblesse de l’Etat central avant et après la Révolution de 1911, ainsi que la complexité des rapports entre autorités nationales et locales. Elle représente enfin un observatoire privilégié d'une frange de la société chinoise des ports ouverts dont les modes d’expression et de contestation connaissent un tournant significatif durant les années 1910. La mise en connexion de ces mutations croisées conduit à nuancer tant le grand récit historiographique d’un impérialisme occidental triomphant que les représentations orthodoxes associées au nationalisme « moderne » chinois. / This thesis aims to further clarify the territorial deployment of foreign settlements in China in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Although the period examined extends from 1846 to the retrocession of the last concessions in 1946, special emphasis is placed on the 1910s, a decade which spelled the end of expansionist logic. The first part analyzes the project of expansion led by the French Municipality of Tianjin from 1902 to 1946 in the Laoxikai District 老西開. This symbolic example serves both as pillar and springboard for writing a connected history of the expansion of foreign settlements. The case study on Tianjin provides a clearer analysis that encompasses Shanghai and Hankou in the second part. Establishing a perspective on the three cities reveals the principles and conditions under which foreign imperialism evolved in China, where mutually competing forces played leading roles. Further, it captures and illustrates the mechanisms of exchange and compromise engaged with Chinese officials and urban citizens. It also discloses the difficult position and weakness of the Chinese State before and after the 1911 Revolution, and the complexity of the relationship between national and local authorities. Finally, it offers a unique vantage point from which to observe sections of Chinese society within the treaty ports whose forms of expression and protest experienced a significant turning point in the 1910s. Relationships between these intertwined evolutions challenge both the dominant historiographical narrative on Western triumphant imperialism and orthodox representations associated with Chinese "modern" nationalism.

2006年，中國大陸國務院將天津定位為北方經濟中心，天津的金融發展加速，金融機構家數及存貸款餘額不斷增加。當金融市場完善，有助降低交易成本使資金的融通管道暢通，居民可透過金融市場融通資金來從事更多消費，因此本研究目的為探討金融發展是否也是影響居民消費及恩格爾係數的因素。 本研究以金融深化程度及銀行效率指標兩項金融發展指標，來衡量天津的金融發展程度。實證結果顯示，短期下實質人均儲蓄、都市化程度對居民消費有負向影響；物價指數、實質人均GDP、實質人均可支配年收入與金融深化程度對居民消費有正向影響，銀行效率則對居民消費無影響；而長期下，實質人均儲蓄與都市化程度對消費有負向影響，物價指數、實質人均可支配年收入及銀行效率對消費有正向影響，金融深化程度及實質人均GDP則與居民消費無影響。 在恩格爾係數方面，短期下依賴比、實質人均可支配年收入對居民消費有負向影響；金融深化程度、都市化程度對居民消費有正向影響。長期下金融深化程度對恩格爾係數無影響，但銀行效率卻對恩格爾係數有正向影響。依賴比與實質人均可支配年收入呈負向關係，但金融發展程度與銀行效率對居民消費確實有促進作用。最後本研究建議天津政府除了積極促進消費的同時，也應致力於提高居民實質人均可支配年收入水準及提高銀行資金運用效率。 / In 2006, The State Council in China set Tianjin as the economic center in the northway of China., the financial development in Tianjin has speeded up. The numbers of the financial institutions and the balance of deposit and loan have risen up. When the financial market becomes mature that will reduce the transaction cost and consumers will have more financial accesses and opportunities to finance. Therefore, this paper is aimed to discuss whether the financial development is a factor that influence the consumption and Engel’s coefficient or not. This paper used two financial development indicators to measure the financial development in Tianjin- Financial irrelevant ratio (FIR) ,and bank efficiency. The empirical results shows that real personal savings, and urbanization have negative influence on consumption whereas the price index, real GDP per capita, real personal disposal income and financial irrelevant ratio have positive influence on consumption and banking efficiency has no influence on consumption in the short run. In the long run, however, real personal savings and urbanization have negative influence on consumption but price index, real personal disposal income and banking efficiency have the positive influence on consumption. But financial irrelevant ratio and real GDP per capita have no influence on consumption. In the Engel’s coefficient aspect, dependency ratio and real personal disposal income have negative influence. The Financial irrelevant ratio, urbanization and food price index have positive influence in the short run. In the long run, financial irrelevant ratio has no significant influence on Engel’s coefficient but banking efficiency has positive influence on consumption. Dependency ratio and real personal disposal income have negative influence on consumption. Therefore, this paper finds out that the FIR and the bank efficiency have pushed up the consumption in the short run and long run respectively. This paper recommends that the Tianjin’s government should not only to push up the consumption but also should be dedicated to raise up the personal disposal income and banking efficiency.