While the Impossible Trinity Theory (also known as the trilemma) has been widely recognized, due to its descriptive nature, very little has been done to test its validity empirically. This paper starts by comparing several recent constructions with regard to this matter and, after making some adjustments to the trilemma index invented by Aizenman et al. (2008), proves the validity of the Impossible Trinity Theory for developing countries. This paper then studies the empirical relationship between a country’s deviation from the average trilemma index and its economic performance. Empirical results find that while the overall deviation does not affect a country’s economic performance, individual deviations as well as regional factors are significant in determining unemployment and the real GDP growth rate.

<div>Anonymous communication networks (ACNs) are critical to communication privacy over the internet as they enable</div><div>individuals to maintain their privacy from untrusted intermediaries and endpoints.</div><div>Typically, ACNs involve messages traveling through some intermediaries before arriving at their destinations, and therefore they introduce network latency and bandwidth overheads. </div><div><br></div><div>The goal of this work is to investigate the fundamental constraints of anonymous communication (AC) protocols.</div><div>We analyze the relationship between bandwidth overhead, latency overhead, and sender anonymity or recipient anonymity against a global passive (network-level) adversary. </div><div>We confirm the widely believed trilemma </div><div>that an AC protocol can only achieve two out of the following three properties: </div><div>strong anonymity (i.e., anonymity up to a negligible chance),</div><div>low bandwidth overhead, and low latency overhead. </div><div><br></div><div>We further study anonymity against a stronger global passive adversary that can additionally passively compromise some of the AC protocol nodes.</div><div>For a given number of compromised nodes, </div><div>we derive as a necessary constraint a relationship between bandwidth and latency overhead whose violation make it impossible for an AC protocol to achieve strong anonymity. </div><div>We analyze prominent AC protocols from the literature and depict to which extent those satisfy our necessary constraints. </div><div>Our fundamental necessary constraints offer a guideline not only for improving existing AC systems but also for designing novel AC protocols with non-traditional bandwidth and latency overhead choices.</div><div><br></div><div>Using the guidelines indicated by our fundamental necessary constraints we provide two efficient protocol constructions.</div><div>First, we design a mixnet-based AC protocol Streams that provides provable mixing guarantees with the expense of latency overhead. Streams realizes a trusted third party stop-and-go mix as long as each message stays in the system for $\omega(\log \eta)$ rounds.</div><div>Second, we offer a DC-net based design OrgAn that can provide strong sender anonymity with constant latency at the expense of bandwidth overhead. OrgAn solves the problem of regular requirements of key and slot agreement present in typical DC-net based protocols, by utilizing a client/relay/server architecture.</div>

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Les réserves de change ont connu des évolutions importantes au cours des deux dernières décennies et ont atteint des niveaux record, en particulier dans les économies émergentes. Ces évolutions ont remis en question les cadres traditionnels d'analyse des motifs de détention des réserves alors que les deux principaux motifs dans la littérature (de précaution et mercantiliste) font face à un certain nombre de limites pour rendre compte de la forte hausse des réserves des émergents dans la période récente. A travers trois études originales dont une analyse détaillée des politiques menées par cinq économies latino-américaines, cette thèse lie l'accumulation récente de réserves à l'accroissement de la liquidité globale et aux contraintes en termes de politiques macroéconomiques auxquelles font face les pays émergents. Elle montre que les réserves de change accumulées ne dépendent pas seulement de facteurs endogènes comme le niveau des fondamentaux (accumulation au titre du motif de précaution) ou le niveau du taux de change (accumulation au titre du motif mercantiliste) mais également de facteurs exogènes, en particulier de la liquidité mondiale. L'accumulation de réserves apparait comme un instrument de politique économique utilisée par les pays émergents afin d'atténuer les contraintes associées au triangle des incompatibilitées. Cette thèse montre que les réserves peuvent être efficaces pour atténuer des contraintes transitoires mais suggère qu'elles ne peuvent empêcher des évolutions structurelles. Dans ce contexte, les choix en termes de policy mix semblent essentiels pour la gestion du trilemme. / Foreign exchange reserves have witnessed important evolutions during the last two decades. They reached all time highs, mostly on account of the acceleration of reserve accumulation in emerging economies. These evolutions have challenged traditional frameworks explaining reserve accumulation' determinants. The two main frameworks (precautionary and mercantilist motivations) face a number of limitations to explain the sharp increase in emerging economies' reserves in the recent period. This dissertation presents three original studies including a detailed analysisof macroeconomic policies conducted by five Latin American economies. It links the accumulation of reserves in the recent period to the increase of global liquidity and to the macroeconomic policy constraints emerging economies face. It shows that reserves do not depend only on pull factors such as the level of fundamentals (accumulation for precautionary purposes) or the level of the exchange-rate (accumulation for mercantilist purposes) but also on push factors, in particular the level of global liquidity. The accumulation of reserves appears as a policy instrumentused by emerging economies to mitigate the constraints associated with the impossible trinity. This dissertation shows that reserves can be efficient in mitigating transitory constraints but suggests that they cannot alter structural evolutions. In this context, the choices in terms of the policy mix appear key to deal with the trilemma.

In recent years, experience from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq has led to considerable debate regarding counterinsurgency theories and their application in reality. Therefore, it could appear strange that both International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and American forces applied strategies in Afghanistan that contradict fundamental knowledge of counterinsurgency theory. One example is the use of indiscriminate force when combating insurgents, resulting in the loss of civilian lives, even though civilian casualties risk alienating the local population from the counterinsurgent. This thesis aims to examine if the three objectives of force protection, destruction of the insurgent, and protection of civilians can be achieved at the same time in counterinsurgency (COIN) warfare, or if a trilemma-like relationship exists between the three, whereby only two of the three objectives can be achieved simultaneously. By examining statistics such as death tolls within the categories of civilians, insurgents and own forces – and comparing the results over two time periods – some conclusions can be drawn with regard to what happens when the strategic focus changes. This thesis focuses on two time periods, 2006-2009 and 2009-2012, and investigates the strategic focus in COIN operations in each period, and whether or not the outcome in terms of death toll can be explained accordingly. The result of the thesis reveals that the statistics point toward the fact that a trilemma like relationship indeed does occur between the three objectives of counterinsurgency. From these results the thesis suggests that this theoretical framework could prove useful in future conflicts by helping to foresee what will happen when working towards the three different objectives.

This dissertation consists of three essays on capital controls and exchange rate regimes. The first essay, under the background of international monetary policy trilemma, empirically investigates the validity of the proposition that holding the degree of exchange rate stability constant, a decrease in capital mobility through imposition of capital controls will enhance monetary independence. Using a panel dataset covering 88 countries for the 1995-2010 period and system GMM estimation, this paper finds that 1) capital controls help improve a country’s monetary independence; 2) the effectiveness of capital controls depends on the types of assets and the direction of flows they are imposed; 3) the choice of exchange rate regime has important impact on the effectiveness of capital controls on monetary independence. The second essay examines the role of capital controls on economic growth. Conventional wisdom suggests that allowing international capital flows improves domestic investment and growth by providing extra resources through international capital market, yet the flows can be misallocated to finance speculative or low-quality domestic investments. Using a panel dataset covering 78 countries over 1995-2009, this paper finds that 1) capital control policies promote economic growth after taking into account a country’s de facto level of capital flows; 2) controls on capital inflows helps a country’s economic growth, but not controls on outflows; 3) restrictions on different asset types affect growth differently. Capital controls on equity type flows are less effective than controls on debt type flows or direct investment. The third examines the role of exchange rate flexibility on current account balances. Global imbalances have become an important issue for economists and policy makers. Greater exchange rate flexibility is often suggested as a means to achieve faster and more efficient adjustment in the current account. However, previous empirical studies show little support for this hypothesis. This essay revisits this issue with a large panel dataset and Threshold VAR model and finds that 1) the speed of the current account adjustment is higher in a regime with greater exchange rate variability; 2) some existing popular exchange rate classifications may not capture actual exchange rate variability as well as expected.

Submitted by Edileide Reis (leyde-landy@hotmail.com) on 2013-05-06T14:07:36Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Milton Ferreira.pdf: 891680 bytes, checksum: 49d3dcf4e9f68b37ddb0c70e02df6f17 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Auxiliadora Lopes(silopes@ufba.br) on 2013-05-16T18:10:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Milton Ferreira.pdf: 891680 bytes, checksum: 49d3dcf4e9f68b37ddb0c70e02df6f17 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-05-16T18:10:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Milton Ferreira.pdf: 891680 bytes, checksum: 49d3dcf4e9f68b37ddb0c70e02df6f17 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / A presente tese investiga os antagonismos, equivalências e/ou complementariedades nos itinerários da educação superior agronômica. O ‘objeto’ de estudo é a rede de práticas discursivas aqui denominadas trilema agroeducacional. Trata-se de Industrializar o meio ambiente (lucratividade do negócio agrícola), Preservá-lo (intocabilidade) ou Conservá-lo (sua sustentabilidade). Diferenciados pressupostos epistêmicos, estratégias de ensino aprendizagem, e processos de disciplinamento propiciam uma maior ênfase em enunciações enunciadas relativas às práticas retromencionadas. Estudou-se como o corpo docente da Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (UESC) lotado no Depto. De Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais, se envolveu nesta rede e foi tensionado bem como tensionou o curso para um daqueles enfoques. Na reconstituição da tessitura trilemática utilizou-se Foucault como referência teórica principal. A partir de uma amostragem de 38% do corpo docente do curso e do resgate das enunciações, constatou-se cerca de 60% de pontos de difração das práticas discursivas referentes à Industrialização e 40% concernentes à Conservação, além de um silêncio quanto a Preservação do meio ambiente. Utilizou-se as técnicas de aplicação de um roteiro de entrevistas, gravação, transcrição e fichamento conforme procedimentos arqueogenealógico de inspiração foucaultianos. Conclui-se pela predominância atual do enfoque da Industrialização, embora a singularidade da Conservação possa se estruturar para uma longa duração caso uma governamentalidade e éticas ecológicas se tornem imperativas à processos produtivos agrícolas limpos. Assim uma produção de (id)entidades afins a racionalização no uso do meio ambiente se tornaria cotidiana. / Salvador

The subject of this diploma thesis is the analysis of the importance and development of Chinese renminbi convertibility. The paper describes the development of the yuan exchange rate, whose value is still largely decided by the PBOC. It also seeks to identify the growing role of the renminbi on the international scene despite its financial account that is still not completely liberalized. Last but not least, the Chinese trilemma is described here, with the renminbi convertibility being an integral part of this issue. Once China decides to solve the trilemma, one of the possible outcomes is the full renminbi convertibility. The paper also tries to identify the possible impacts that would occur in the event of the full renminbi convertibility.

The present thesis analyzes the application of capital controls and their impact on the economy in the short and long term. These regulatory measures have gone through many periods and opinions in which they were considered as both positive and negative instrument not only of monetary policy. Global financial crisis of 2008 has again raised a lot of questions dealing with this topic. Capital controls may help ease the acute problems associated with inflows or outflows in the short term but they will not solve the issue of the country's susceptibility to movements of primarily debt capital. Long-term capital closeness (whether in terms of export or import) may causes, inter alia, the excessive accumulation of savings in the domestic closed economy or lack of capital for economic development. Therefore, when applying capital controls it is also necessary to improve the country's institutional quality which proved to be an important determinant of capital flows.

As mudanças no mercado global da indústria de defesa ocorridas nos últimos trinta anos impõem desafios significativos para o desenvolvimento e sustentação da uma base industrial de defesa nacional. Países como o Brasil, que se encontram em posições intermediárias da hierarquia internacional de produção de armamentos, enfrentam ainda mais constrangimentos, dado o chamado trilema de modernização da defesa. A experiência de uma série de países intermediários vem mostrando que, apesar das dificuldades, é possível desenvolver estratégias eficientes para superar o trilema da modernização e desenvolver e sustentar a indústria de defesa nacional. O presente trabalho tem o objetivo de compreender as estratégias de desenvolvimento e sustentação da base industrial de defesa nacional, buscando identificar a relação entre três variáveis: a motivação política atribuída à indústria de defesa para a inserção estratégica internacional; os arranjos institucionais arquitetados para gerenciar e promover esta indústria específica; e a configuração do modelo de desenvolvimento e de sustentação da base industrial de defesa nacional. Com este intuito, comparamos estes conceitos em três casos de estudo: África do Sul, Austrália e Brasil Desde o princípio dos anos 2000, o Brasil vem enfatizando a importância estratégica das indústrias de defesa e tem criado políticas específicas voltadas à articulação dos elementos necessários ao fortalecimento desta variável de poder ;?internacional e de desenvolvimento tecnológico. As experiências de outros países podem auxiliar o Brasil a formular um modelo de desenvolvimento e sustentação da base industrial de defesa cada vez mais robusto, eficiente e adaptado aos desafios impostos por constrangimentos estruturais. / The changes in the global defense industry over the last thirty years poses significant challenges to the development and sustainability of a national defense industrial base. Countries such as Brazil, which are in an intermediate position on the international hierarchy of arms production, face even more constraints, given the so-called defence modernization trilemma. The experience of a number of intermediate countries has shown that, despite the difficulties, it is possible to develop efficient strategies to overcome the modernization trilemma and to develop and sustain the national defense industry. The present work aims to understand the strategies of development and sustainability of the national defense industry, identifying the relationship between three variables: the political motivation attributed to the defense industry for the international strategic insertion; the institutional arrangements designed to manage and promote this particular industry; and the configuration of the development model for the national defense industry For this purpose, we compare these concepts in three case studies: South Africa, Australia and Brazil. Since the beginning of the 2000s, Brazil has emphasized the strategic importance of the defense industries and has created specific policies aimed at articulating the elements necessary to strengthen this variable of international power and technological development. The experiences of other countries can help Brazil to formulate a model of development and sustainability of the national defense industry increasingly robust, efficient and adapted to the challenges imposed by structural constraints.