This thesis analyzed the new parameter hydrodynamic demand representing the damage of tsunami waves on structures and coastlines,maximum positive amplitudes and current velocities occurred during tsunami inundation by using the numerical model TUNAMI-N2. Regular shaped basins were used with two different bottom slopes in analyses in order to understand the behaviour of tsunami wave and investigate the change of important tsunami parameters along different slopes during tsunami inundation. In application, different initial conditions were used for wave profiles such as solitary wave, leading elevation single sinusoidal wave and leading depression sinusoidal wave. Three different initial wave amplitudes were used in order to test the change of distribution of the hydrodynamic demand. The numerical results were compared and discussed with each other and with the results of existing analytical and experimental studies.

本文研究為經營績效與匯率波動之關聯性，以我國30家民營銀行各別加入日本匯率與美國匯率對銀行經營績效之影響進行分析研究，而匯率變動儼然是當前備受關注之重要議題，無論在我國金融機構或進出口廠商之銀行經營績效存在不確定性，因此，本文之探討動機以我國銀行為主體，觀察銀行之經營績效，受到匯率波動之影響。則應變數為資產報酬率，自變數為資本適足率、逾放比率、存放比率與匯率，則探討時期分成三階段，(1)2005年第四季至2013第四季整體期間經歷過金融海嘯；(2)2005第四季至2007年第四季前期期間未經歷過金融海嘯；(3)2009年第一季至2013年第四季後期期間經歷過金融海嘯後。使用Panel Data進行實證分析。如下分析三階段: (1)在整體期間經歷過金融海嘯，各別加入匯率，日本匯率與美國匯率都為負向不顯著，資本適足率與存放比率對是否有加入匯率關係都為正向顯著性，逾放比率為負向顯著性。 (2)在前期期間未經歷過金融海嘯，各別加入匯率，日本匯率為正向不顯著；美國匯率為正向顯著性，資本適足率與存放比率對是否有加入匯率關係都為正向顯著性，逾放比率為負向顯著性。 (3)在後期期間經歷過金融海嘯後，各別加入匯率，日本匯率為負向不顯著；美國匯率為負向顯著性，資本適足率與存放比率對是否有加入匯率關係都為正向顯著性，逾放比率為負向顯著性。 / In this paper, we research for the connection of the operating performance and the relevance of exchange rate fluctuations. The influence of 30 private Banks in own country individually join the Japan and U.S exchange rate is on bank performance are studied, and the exchange rate changes obviously is the important issue that was concerned currently, no matter own country financial institution or import and export companies pair banks operating uncertainty existence, therefore, this text investigate motivation in order to own country banks as the mainstay, observe banks operating performance, by the influence of exchange rate fluctuation .Strain numbers is ROA, and the independent variable is BIS , NPL Ratio, Deposit Loan Ratio and exchange rate, explores period be divided into three stages,(1) During 2005 in the fourth quarter to 2013 in the fourth quarter whole period experience financial tsunami;(2) During 2005 in the fourth quarter to 2007 in the fourth quarter prophase period not experience financial tsunami;(3) During 2009 in the first quarter to 2013 in the fourth quarter late period experience financial tsunami, using panel data do empirical analysis. As follow analysis three stages: (1).During the whole period experienced a financial tsunami, individually joined the exchange rates, Japan exchange rate and U.S exchange rate is positive not significant. BIS and Deposit Loan Ratio whether to join the exchange rates relation are positive significant, and NPL is negative significant. (2).During prophase period not experience financial tsunami, individually joined the exchange rates, Japan exchange rate is positive not significant; the U.S exchange rate is positive significant, BIS and Deposit Loan Ratio whether to join the exchange rates relation are positive significant, and NPL is negative significant. (3).During the late period experience financial tsunami, individually joined the exchange rates, Japan exchange rate is negative no significant; the U.S is negative significant. BIS and Deposit Loan Ratio whether to join the exchange rates relation are positive significant, and NPL is negative significant. / 摘要……… I Abstract………… II 致謝…… III 目錄……….. IV 圖次…… V 表次 VI 第一章緒論 1 第一節研究背景與動機 1 第二節研究目的 2 第三節研究架構 4 第二章文獻回顧 5 第一節國內文獻 5 第二節國外文獻 8 第三節國內文獻敘述結論 10 第三章研究方法 13 第一節研究架構 13 第二節研究變數定義 13 第三節 OLS模型 15 第四節 Panel Data模型 15 第五節固定效果和隨機效果的判斷準則-Hausman Test 19 第四章實證結果 22 第一節敘述統計 22 第二節銀行現況 25 第三節研究模型 38 第五章結論與建議 54 第一節結論 54 第二節建議 55 參考文獻…. 56 圖次 圖1-1研究流程圖 4 圖4-1:我國銀行ROE與ROA 25 圖4-2:各國比較ROA 26 圖4-3:我國銀行之逾放比率 26 圖4-4:我國銀行之逾放比率家數 27 圖4-5:各國銀行業逾放比率之比較 27 圖4-6:我國銀行之資本適足率 28 圖4-7:各國銀行資本適足率比較 28 圖4-8:我國銀行調整後資本適足率之家數 29 圖4-9:我國銀行存放款比率 29 圖4-10:我國銀行之逾放比率 30 圖4-11:我國銀行逾放比率之家數 30 圖4-12:各國銀行業逾放比率比較 31 圖4-13:我國銀行存放款比率 31 圖4-14:我國銀行ROE與ROA 32 圖4-15:各國銀行ROA比較 32 圖4-16:我國銀行之資本適足率 33 圖4-17:各國銀行之資本足率比較 33 圖4-18:我國銀行逾放比率與資金 34 圖4-19:各國之逾放比率比較 34 圖4-20:我國銀行存放款比率 35 圖4-21:我國銀行ROE與ROA 35 圖4-22:各國銀行業ROA之比較 36 圖4-23:我國銀行資本適足率 36 圖4-24:各國銀行業之資本比率比較 37 表次 表1-1中文文獻匯整 10 表1-2國外文獻敘述結論 12 表4-1整體敘述統計結果 2005~2013 23 表4-2前期敘述統計結果2005~2007 24 表4-3後期敘述統計結果2009~2013 24 表4-4本研究銀行列表 37 表4-5整體實證研究結果 39 表4-5-1採用固定變動效果進行分析 39 表4-5-2採用固定變動效果進行分析 40 表4-5-3採用固定變動效果進行分析 40 表4-5-4採用固定變動效果進行分析 41 表4-5-5採用固定變動效果進行分析 41 表4-5-6採用固定變動效果進行分析 42 表4-5-7以總資產報酬率(ROA)為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(未加入匯率) 44 表4-5-8以總資產報酬率 (ROA) 為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(加入日本匯率) 44 表4-5-9以總資產報酬率 (ROA) 為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(加入美國匯率) 44 表4-6為研究前期實證分析結果 45 表4-6-1採用隨機變動效果進行分析 46 表4-6-2採用隨機變動效果進行分析 46 表4-6-3採用隨機變動效果進行分析 47 表4-6-4以總資產報酬率 (ROA) 為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(未加入匯率) 48 表4-6-5以總資產報酬率 (ROA) 為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(加入日本匯率) 48 表4-6-6以總資產報酬率 (ROA) 為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(加入美國匯率) 48 表4-7為研究後期實證分析結果 49 表4-7-1採用固定變動效果進行分析 50 表4-7-2採用隨機變動效果進行分析 51 表4-7-3採用隨機變動效果進行分析 51 表4-7-4以總資產報酬率 (ROA) 為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(未加入匯率) 52 表4-7-5以總資產報酬率 (ROA) 為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(加入日本匯率) 52 表4-7-6以總資產報酬率(ROA)為被解釋變數之迴歸模型(加入美國匯率) 52

L’étude des dépôts de tsunamis est une science relativement jeune, et si de nombreux progrès ont été faits, en particulier au cours des trois dernières décennies, les techniques disponibles à l’heure actuelle ne permettent pas l’étude exhaustive des dépôts, que ce soit à cause de problèmes de conservation, fréquemment rencontrés, ou de limites liées aux techniques analytiques elles-mêmes. En effet, leur résolution spatiale s’avère insuffisante pour les dépôts fins (fractions sableuses et inférieures), soit par leur principe même (absence de visualisation en trois dimensions sur des lames minces, par exemple), soit à cause des techniques d’échantillonnage dont elles dépendent. Ce travail a permis d’explorer les applications d’une technique analytique jusqu’à présent inutilisée dans ce domaine, la microtomographie par rayons X, appliquée à trois dépôts de tsunamis : les dépôts du tsunami de Lisbonne en 1755 sur les côtes Andalouses, ceux d’un tsunami causé en 1996 dans le Lac Karymskoye au Kamchatka, et un potentiel dépôt de tsunami datant de l’Holocène à Ninety Mile Beach, sur le littoral ouest de l’Australie. Les problématiques liées aux techniques d’échantillonnage et au traitement des données brutes et à leur exploitation sont passées en revue et les solutions retenues sont exposées. Les résultats obtenus sont comparés à ceux obtenus par l’utilisation de techniques analytiques dont la pertinence et l’utilité ont été démontrées lors de précédentes études. Cette technique se révèle extrêmement utile pour les analyses structurales (organisation interne des dépôts), texturales (distributions de tailles de grains, fabrique sédimentaire et dynamiques d’écoulements), ainsi que les analyses de composition (abondances en bioclastes et en minéraux lourds par exemple). Le croisement des études structurales et texturales du dépôt du tsunami de 1755 mettent en avant des dynamiques de mise en place allant parfois à l’encontre des scenarii généralement admis et offre un nouveau point de vue sur les dépôts de tsunami. / The study of tsunami deposits is a relatively young science, and even if substantial progress has been made (especially during the last three decades) the techniques available at present day do not allow exhaustive studies of the deposits, weither poor conservation of the deposits, which is a common problem, is to blame, or because of limitations of the techniques themselves. Their spatial resolution often appears to be insufficient for fine deposits (sand size fractions and finer) because of their working principle (lack of three dimensional visualisation of structures on thin sections for instance) or because of the sampling techniques they depend on. This work allowed exploring the applications of an analytic technique, X-ray computed microtomography, which had to this day never used before for the study of tsunami deposits. Three distinct case studies have been made: deposits from the 1755 Lisbon tsunami on the western coast of Spain (Andalusia), deposits from the 1996 tsunami triggered in Karymskoye Lake, and a potential mid-Holocene tsunami deposit at Ninety Mile Beach, western Australia. Problematic linked to sampling techniques and raw data processing and exploitation are addressed. Chosen solutions are exposed. The results are compared to those obtained using techniques whose relevance and usefulness have been proven in previous studies. This technique proves to be extremely useful for structural (deposits inner organisation), textural (grain size distribution, sedimentary fabrics and flow dynamics), and composition (bioclasts and heavy minerals abundances) analyses. Crossing structural and textural analysis of the 1755 Lisbon tsunami deposit unravels deposition modes which go against the usually admitted scenario and offers a new point of view on tsunami deposits.

In this thesis, I constrain rupture scenarios of active crustal faults in the southern Strait of Georgia and Boundary Bay in order to assess their tsunamigenic potential. The NW-SE-trending Drayton Harbor, Birch Bay, and Sandy Point faults had been previously identified on the southern side of Boundary Bay from aeromagnetic, LiDAR, and paleoseismic data; all show evidence of abrupt vertical Holocene displacements. South of Boundary Bay, the E-W-trending Skipjack Island fault zone was recently mapped on the basis of multibeam sonar imagery and seismic reflection data, with evidence for Holocene offsets of the seafloor and subsurface sediments. In addition, the Fraser River Delta fault had been hypothesized on the basis of a line of pockmarks and fluid seeps. Since these faults have only been recently mapped and identified as active, there is little information available on their structure, rupture style, and past large earthquakes. This makes it difficult to constrain rupture models to predict how fault slip could displace the seafloor during a large earthquake, for input to tsunami models. I analyzed relocated earthquake hypocentres, earthquake mechanisms, bathymetry, topography, and aeromagnetic, seismic reflection, and magnetotelluric data, to constrain the location, strike, dip, and rupture width of each fault. Correlations between datasets enabled mapping of northwestward extensions of the Sandy Point and Birch Bay faults, as well as delineating the previously unmapped Fraser River Delta fault. These offshore faults appear to be associated with infilled basement valleys in the subsurface, perhaps due to differential glacial erosion of weakened fault zone material. The Drayton Harbor fault could not be definitively mapped across Boundary Bay, so was excluded from the rupture modelling. Rupture styles were constrained using a combination of earthquake mechanisms, stress orientations, other evidence of regional compression, and vertical paleoseismic offsets. Where possible, paleoseismic displacements in past earthquakes were used to constrain the amount of fault slip for scenario earthquakes; empirical relations between fault slip and fault length or area were used to estimate displacements for the Skipjack Island and Fraser River Delta faults. The Birch Bay, Sandy Point, Skipjack Island, and Fraser River Delta faults all pose a significant tsunami risk to communities surrounding the southern Strait of Georgia and Boundary Bay. Considering both the originally mapped and extended lengths, the Birch Bay and Sandy Point faults could rupture in reverse-faulting earthquakes up to Mw 6.7-7.4 and 6.8-7.5, respectively, with seafloor uplift up to 2-2.5 m triggering damaging tsunami waves (up to at least 2.5 m) that could arrive onshore with little to no warning after the shaking begins. Similarly, the Fraser River Delta fault could host reverse or dextral-reverse slip earthquakes up to Mw 7.0-7.6, with seafloor uplift of 0.6-3.5 m. Ruptures on the Skipjack Island fault would likely have a larger strike-slip component; earthquakes of Mw 6.9-7.3 produce modelled seafloor uplift of 0.5-1.9 m. These results suggest that large tsunamigenic earthquakes on crustal faults in the southern Strait of Georgia should be included in future seismic and tsunami hazard assessments on both sides of the international border. / Graduate

Superficial information of the civil wars in Aceh, Indonesia and Sri Lanka creates the idea that both conflicts were in similar situations when they were hit by the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. It thus seems surprising that in the wake of the tsunami, the Free Aceh Movement and the Government of Indonesia signed a peace agreement, while the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and the Government of Sri Lanka returned to war. This thesis aims to explore what factors related to the tsunami contributed to this difference and whether rational choice theory can serve as an explanation for this difference. In order to find out, I conducted a qualitative comparative case study though the analysis of secondary documents. The results suggest that the factors that contributed to the difference can be divided into four broad themes: (1) the timing of the tsunami and thus the pre-disaster context; (2) the geographical situation and with that, the military impact; (3) the types of guerilla groups, including their abilities to rule, their access to financial capital and their strategic; (4) the role of the international community, which can be further divided into firstly, the geopolitical relevance of these countries, and secondly, internationalization, community engagement and separating the tsunami and conflict. I believe that rational choice theory explains the difference in outcome between the two conflicts very well. This theory assumes that people, given the circumstances, and in view of all the possible options, will act in line with the option that is expected to satisfy them most and minimize their losses. Applying this theory to the case studies of Aceh and Sri Lanka following the tsunami, it was appealing for the Free Aceh Movement to settle, but this was not the case for the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. As a result, the former chose to sign a peace agreement with the Government of Indonesia, whereas the latter chose to continue its fight against the Government of Sri Lanka.

No description available.

Chapter 1-2:The Cassini RADAR mapper has imaged elevated blocks and mountains on Titan we term ‘ridges’. Two unresolved problems regarding Titan's surface are still debated: what is the origin of its ridges and was there tectonic activity on Titan? To understand the processes that produced the ridges, in this study, (1) we analyze the distribution and orientation of ridges through systematic geomorphologic mapping and (2) we compare the location of the ridges to a new global topographic map to explore the correlation between elevation and ridges and the implications for Titan's surface evolution. Globally, the orientation of ridges is nearly E-W and the ridges are more common near the equator than at the poles, which suggests a tectonic origin for most of the ridges on Titan. In addition, the ridges are found to preferentially lie at higher-than-average elevations near the equator. We conclude the most reasonable formation scenario for Titan's ridges is that contractional tectonism built the ridges and thickened the icy lithosphere, causing regional uplift. The combination of global and regional tectonic events, likely contractional in nature, plus enhanced fluvial erosion and sedimentation near the poles, would have contributed to shaping Titan's tectonic landforms and surface morphology to what we see today. However, contractional structures (i.e. thrusts and folds) require large stresses (8~10 MPa), the sources of which probably do not exist on Titan. Liquid hydrocarbons in Titan's near subsurface must play a role similar to that of water on Earth and lead to fluid overpressures, which enable contractional deformation at smaller stresses (< 1MPa) by significantly reducing the shear strength of materials. We show that crustal conditions with enhanced pore fluid pressures on Titan favor the formation of thrust faults and related folds, in a contractional stress field. The production of folds, as on Earth, is facilitated by the presence of crustal liquids to weaken the crust. These hydrocarbon fluids have played a key role in Titan's tectonic evolutionary history, leaving it the only icy body on which strong evidence for contractional tectonism exists. Chapter 3: Arthur Wichmann's ‘Earthquakes of the Indian Archipelago’ documents several large earthquakes and tsunami throughout the Banda Arc region that can be interpreted as mega-thrust events. However, the source regions of these events are not known. One of the largest and well-documented events in the catalog is the great earthquake and tsunami affecting the Banda islands on 1 August 1629. It caused severe damage from a 15-meter tsunami that arrived at the Banda Islands about a half hour after violent shaking stopped. The earthquake was also recorded 230 km away in Ambon, but no tsunami is mentioned. This event was followed by at least 9 years of uncommonly frequent seismic activity in the region that tapered off with time, which can be interpreted as aftershocks. The combination of these observations indicates that the earthquake was most likely a mega-thrust event. We use an inverse modeling approach to numerically reconstruct the tsunami, which constrains the likely location and magnitude of the 1629 earthquake. Only linear numerical models are applied due to the low-resolution of bathymetry in the Banda Islands and Ambon. Therefore, we apply various wave amplification factors (1.5 to 4) derived from simulations of recent, well-constrained tsunami to bracket the upper and lower limits of earthquake moment magnitudes for the event. The closest major earthquake sources to the Banda Islands are the Tanimbar and Seram Troughs of the Banda subduction/collision zone. Other source regions are too far away for such a short arrival time of the tsunami after shaking. Moment magnitudes predicted by the models in order to produce a 15 m tsunami are Mw of 9.8 to 9.2 on the Tanimbar Trough and Mw 8.8 to 8.2 on the Seram Trough. The arrival times of these waves are 58 minutes for Tanimbar Trough and 30 minutes for Seram Trough. The model also predicts 5 meters run-up for Ambon from a Tanimbar Trough source, which is inconsistent with the historical records. Ambon is mostly shielded from a wave generated by a Seram Trough Source.We conclude that the most likely source of the 1629 mega-thrust earthquake is the Seram Trough. Only one earthquake > Mw 8.0 is recorded instrumentally from the eastern Indonesia region although high rates of strain (50-80 mm/a) are measured across the Seram section of the Banda subduction zone. Enough strain has already accumulated since the last major historical event to produce an earthquake of similar size to the 1629 event. Due to the rapid population growth in coastal areas in this region, it is imperative that the most vulnerable coastal areas prepare accordingly.

Disaster victims and vulnerable populations are audiences that communications professionals and scholars have ignored. Public relation practices dominate current disaster communication policy. This study examines the disaster communication network, including policy and practice, of the Thai Red Cross, before, during, and after the Asian tsunami. Disaster communication(s) is defined as the sharing and exchange of information with the victims immediately affected by a disaster. This definition focuses specifically on the vulnerable audience and allows response efforts to emerge from multiple disciplines. Focusing response efforts on victims' assessed needs and abilities allows for a multi-disciplinary approach to mitigate further suffering. The disciplines of health, development, and communications converge for efficient disaster management. This case study gives great insight into the cultural chasm between policy making and practical application and also reveals the value of personal initiative. A proposed model of disaster communication is offered. Significantly more research is needed in the area of disaster communications.

No description available.

Dans le cadre d’un mandat de recherche confié à l’Université Laval par le Ministère des Transports du Québec et consistant à la réalisation d’une analyse initiale des mouvements de terrain liés à l’exploitation minière et leurs conséquences possibles sur les infrastructures routières et urbaines à Black Lake, ce projet de maîtrise a pour but d’analyser le potentiel tsunamigénique des glissements de terrain actifs sur la paroi est de la mine abandonnée LAB d’Amiante du Canada suite au remplissage actuellement en cours de la fosse. Pour ce faire, le logiciel GeoClaw, basé sur le système d’équations de Barré de Saint-Venant, a été utilisé afin de modéliser numériquement la formation d’un tsunami. Étant donné que la possibilité qu’un tsunami soit généré à Black Lake ne pourrait se réaliser que dans plusieurs années, le modèle utilisé a été tout d’abord validé en l’utilisant pour un cas québécois récent survenu en 2014 au Lac-des-Seize-Îles. La génération d’un tsunami est non seulement fonction du plan d’eau dans lequel il peut se produire, mais aussi du volume impliqué et de la vitesse de déplacement d’une masse en mouvement. Ces paramètres ont donc été préalablement déterminés avant de procéder à l’analyse du potentiel tsunamigénique des divers scénarios possibles le long de la paroi est de la mine. Étant donné les diverses incertitudes inhérentes à une telle analyse prospective, la modélisation numérique de la génération, de la propagation et de l’inondation d’un tsunami a été réalisée par une approche paramétrique, en utilisant les différents scénarios établis par les analyses de stabilité et de la cinématique ainsi qu’un modèle numérique de terrain obtenu à partir de plusieurs levés LiDAR en tant que paramètres d’entrée. De plus, l’effet du remplissage graduel de la fosse, provoqué par l’arrêt des opérations d’exploitation et de pompage, a aussi été évalué pour les divers scénarios. Les travaux ont permis d’identifier, si tel est le cas, le niveau minimal requis dans la fosse pour qu’il y ait atteinte des différentes infrastructures durant l’inondation, et d’ainsi estimer, pour chacun des scénarios, les conséquences potentielles advenant l’accélération soudaine d’un glissement de terrain et la formation d’un tsunami. Les principaux résultats démontrent que si un glissement de terrain avait réellement à se produire, trois scénarios sont potentiellement plus problématiques en termes de conséquences liées à l’inondation des différentes infrastructures. L’infrastructure routière principale du secteur (c.-à-d. la Route 112) serait potentiellement affectée, avec une gravité variable en fonction du niveau d’eau du lac et de la vitesse de mobilisation des glissements de terrain, alors que les infrastructures urbaines du secteur de Black Lake seraient toujours épargnées. Finalement, cette analyse aura aussi démontré l’intérêt d’étendre l’application de cette méthode à d’autres cas récents et historiques au Québec. / As part of a research project entrusted by the Quebec Ministry of Transports consisting in a preliminary analysis of landslides induced by the mining operations and their potential consequences on the road and urban infrastructures of Black Lake, this Master’s project analyses the tsunamigenic potential of the east wall landslides of the abandoned mine LAB d’Amiante du Canada following the eventual reflooding of the open pit. In order to achieve this, the GeoClaw software, based on the Barré-de-Saint-Venant shallow water equations, has been used to model the tsunami formation. Given the fact that a landslide-generated tsunami could only happen in several years in Black Lake, the model was first validated by applying it to a recent case that occurred in 2014 at Lac-des-Seize-Îles in Quebec. Tsunami generation is not only a function of the affected water basin, but also of the volume and the displacement velocity of the mobilised mass. These parameters have been pre-determined before proceeding with the tsunamigenic potential analysis of possible landslides along the east wall. Given the inherent uncertainties associated with this kind of prospective analysis, the generation, propagation and flood modeling has been completed with a parametric approach, using scenarios established from a stability and kinetic analysis , and using a digital elevation model built from LiDAR surveys as input parameters. Furthermore, the effect of pit flooding induced by the mine shutdown has also been evaluated for the landslide scenarios. This work allowed identifying the minimal water level required in the open pit at which the road and urban infrastructures would be affected by the inundation and thus allowed estimating the potential consequences if a sudden acceleration of the landslide occurs and if a tsunami is generated. The main results show that if a landslide were to occur, three different landslide scenarios would be potentially more problematic in terms of inundation of the infrastructures. The main road infrastructure (i. e. Highway 112) would be potentially affected, with varying severity depending on the water level of the lake and the mobilization velocities of the landslides, while the urban infrastructure located in the Black Lake area would remain unaffected. Finally, this analysis has demonstrated the interest to extend the application of this method to other recent and historic landslide-induced tsunami cases in Quebec.