Despite the meaningful impact that credit ratings have on sovereign countries and financial markets, research has not fully explored the determinants of these ratings in many emerging markets (EMs). The aim of this study was to identify and quantify the extent to which different macroeconomic factors impact sovereign ratings. Based on a review of the literature, an analysis of rating agencies' methodology papers, and economic intuition, it was hypothesised that measures of wealth, economic growth, monetary stability, fiscal trajectory, external accounts and governance would predict EM credit ratings. This hypothesis was largely supported by regression models that anticipated actual ratings with predictive power comparable to extant research, but across a much broader set of EM countries. By identifying the key drivers of these ratings, the current research suggests several areas that policymakers can address to improve their own sovereign ratings. / Economics / M. Com (Economics)

The principle of effective demand states that given endogenous expenditure patterns, the level of exogenous expenditure determines the level of employment. If investment represents the sole form of exogenous expenditure, employment adjusts to the level of investment. If exogenous expenditure changes, equilibrium is restored via the equilibrating variable, employment. If employment is linked in a unique way to income, we have what is referred to as the income adjustment process. The income adjustment process is investigated in a closed and a small open economy (SOE) which imports consumption and capital goods. If a SOE imports its capital goods, the causal link between investment and employment is weakened. When capital goods are imported, investment adjusts to the balance of payments and animal spirits are constrained. Certain South African data are analysed within the framework of the income adjustment process. / M.A.(Economics)

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:34:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AndreiLS_DISSERT.pdf: 1080738 bytes, checksum: 0e789761c9337cdeb73ac492e8a471a2 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-07-29 / This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Louren?o et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study / Este trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a influ?ncia da restri??o externa sobre o crescimento econ?mico brasileiro no per?odo de 1991 a 2010. Com este intuito, s?o apresentados alguns dos principais modelos keynesianos de crescimento restringido pela balan?a de pagamentos, inspirados por Thirlwall (1979) e Kaldor (1970), os quais s?o sustentados por importantes pontos em comum, como a ades?o ao princ?pio da demanda efetiva. Tendo em vista que, no ?mbito desta linha te?rica, n?o h? consenso sobre a modelagem que melhor explique a taxa de crescimento permitida pela restri??o externa, s?o apresentados os resultados encontrados por parte representativa da literatura emp?rica que trata do tema, que se faz necess?rio para um melhor entendimento do caso brasileiro. A partir da estima??o da elasticidade-renda das importa??es (0,85) atrav?s de vetores autorregressivos com corre??o de erros (VEC), foram calculadas cinco taxas de crescimento da renda, conforme previsto pelos modelos de Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall e Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998; 2003) e Louren?o et al. (2011) e comparou-as com a taxa de crescimento efetiva. A an?lise emp?rica permitiu verificar que: n?o se pode rejeitar a presen?a de restri??o externa na economia brasileira; h? forte similaridade nas taxas de crescimento previstas pelos diferentes modelagens que prop?em o crescimento com restri??o externa. Al?m disso, ao se utilizar s?ries trimestrais para o per?odo p?s-1990, n?o existem fatores capazes de provocar instabilidade nos par?metros da fun??o de importa??o (elasticidade-renda e elasticidade-pre?o das importa??es) dentro do per?odo, o que indica que a quebra estrutural amplamente associada ao ano de 1994 n?o foi confirmada para o per?odo de an?lise deste estudo

This thesis aims to analyse the connection between the Eurozone's balance of payments crisis and the TARGET 2 balances. These balances represent mutual clearing relationship of the individual euro area member states to the European Central Bank inside the TARGET 2 system, which serves as a heart of the Eurozone's payment settlements. In fact, the central banks of the core countries hold significant positive balances while the peripheral central banks accumulated substantial negative positions. The TARGET 2 balances appeared mainly as a consequence of the liquidity outflow from the peripheral countries to the core due to the large imbalances in fundamental factors such as the NCA deficits, net foreign debt, public and private debt or competitiveness. The development of the balances was further facilitated via uneven liquidity provisions from the Eurosystem, as the peripheral countries effectively financed their balance of payments disequilibrium by issuing new liquidity that almost immediately moved to the core. The banking systems of the core started to operate in the liquidity excess status as the monetary base increased in 2011 and 2012. Assets with questionable quality collateralized the increasing refinancing operations in the periphery as the collateral requirements were repeatedly lowered. It resulted in an increase in the credit risk of these operations primarily in the periphery countries. This situation, among many others presented in this thesis, raises further questions about the parameters of the future single monetary policy as well as the continuance of the European monetary union.

My thesis titled The Monetary Policy of the Central Bank of Armenia starts with characteristics of Armenia, where I focus on economic attributes of the country, international conflicts and their effects on Armenia, population development, poverty and corruption. The second part is focused on economic development of Armenia, the country's employment rate, particular items of the balance of payments and international trade. Furthermore, this part also consists of information related to the development of Armenian currency and the country's foreign debt. The third, significant part of my thesis deals with the Central Bank of Armenia and Armenia's financial system, concentrating mainly on history and the present of the subject central bank. Later in this part, I inquire into Armenia's monetary policy, where I focus on its applied transmission mechanisms and the CBA's instruments.The final part of this thesis is about what effects the CBA has on Armenia's economic development. I look into effects of monetary policy on price level development and meeting the inflation objectives. The conclusion part summarizes and gathers all pieces of information I have obtained by studying numerous literature resources and conducting personal interviews with several representatives of the Armenian banking system.This part also summarizes benefits of the CBA and its effects on economic development of Armenia, credibility evaluation and effectiveness in the objectives.

[pt] Motivados pela posição de destaque do real brasileiro entre uma das moedas mais depreciadas em relação aos seus pares emergentes em meados de 2020, potencialmente fomentada pela expressiva evasão de capitais observada no decorrer da pandemia COVID-19 que culminou com um déficit no mercado cambial, realizamos previsões um trimestre a frente para os fluxos de capitais líquidos para o Brasil através de técnicas de machine learning, utilizando modelos de regularização para seleção das variáveis importantes. Os fluxos são obtidos a partir de dados trimestrais do balanço de pagamentos, englobando 2004:T1 a 2021:T1. Os modelos propostos, tanto LASSO quanto adaLASSO + OLS, foram capazes de gerar previsões fora da amostra melhores que o modelo de benchmark, AR. Apesar disso, quando comparados entre si, não podemos rejeitar a hipótese nula de que os modelos propostos possuem a mesma precisão de previsão. / [en] Motivated by the prominent position of the Brazilian real among the most depreciated currencies in comparison with its emerging peers in mid-2020, potentially fueled by the significant capital outflow observed during the COVID19 pandemic that resulted in a deficit in the foreign exchange market, we make one quarter-ahead forecast for net capital flows to Brazil through machine learning techniques, using shrinkage methods to select important variables. These flows are computed from quarterly balance of payments data from 2004:Q1 to 2021:Q1. The proposed models, both LASSO and adaLASSO + OLS, were able to generate better out-of-sample forecasts than the benchmark model, AR. Nevertheless, when compared to each other, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that the proposed models have the same forecast accuracy.

本論文共一冊，約十萬字，分七章廿四節，內容係以中共的「社會主義計劃經濟制度 」及對外經濟政策為基礎，深入探討其外匯管理制度。 在「社會主義計劃經濟制度」下，中共當局恆常透過經濟計劃，對內部經濟活動維持 全面性的控管。中共統治地區的經濟運作，因而在世界經濟體系中保持一定的獨立性 ，相互依存的危彩淡薄。一九七八年年底以後，中共展開經濟體制改革，積極進行對 外經濟交流，目的在引進外部「一切可用」的資源，加速內部經濟發展，但訌劃經濟 基本架構並未隨之脫胎換骨，外匯管理制度亦有其不可變的核心內容。 本論文引用「國際收支平衡表」（Balance of Payments） 的模式為論述骨幹，主要 內容包括﹕中共管理外匯之理論架構、經營帳收支管理、資本帳收支管理、人民幣對 外之匯率制度，以及中共外匯管理制度之績效評估。論文最後，對該制度的未來演進 路徑，亦有所探討。 本論文儘量從經濟的角度，對中共外匯管理制度進行剖析，但必要時仍酌引政治因素 作論證，此乃中共為「高度的意識型態統治」性質政權之故也

隨著中國在國際經濟與戰略地位的竄升，包括利率與匯率在內的中國貨幣當局政策作為不再僅僅只是該國內部事務而已，也會進一步影響到國際經濟的日常運行。本研究通過質性研究與量化研究交互運用的方式，詳盡分析2002年至2007年中國國際收支失衡對其貨幣政策自主性的影響；本研究從三層次分析中國貨幣政策自主性，包括中國外匯占款對其基礎貨幣發行的直接影響、中國貨幣當局各種貨幣政策工具之沖銷基礎貨幣效率、中國行政調控對降低未完全沖銷的基礎貨幣之於總體經濟暨資產市場的影響。本研究發現中國國際收支的持續順差業已嚴重侵蝕到中國貨幣當局所有三個層次的政策自主性；並且，在可預見的未來，只要中國政府不改變當前人民幣匯率體制與外匯管理制度，則中國貨幣當局可能會窮於應付這超額貨幣供給所衍生出的經濟失衡與泡沫化的危機。 / With the rapid rise of China’s international economic and strategic status, China’s monetary policy measures, including interest rates and foreign exchange rates, will not only be merely China’s internal affairs but also further influence international economic daily operation. This study comprehensively analyzes the impact of the disequilibrium of China’s balance of payments between 2002-2007 on its monetary policy autonomy through qualitative methodology and quantitative methodology. This study analyzes China’s monetary policy autonomy in three levels: the direct impact of China’s funds outstanding for foreign exchange on China’s base money supply, the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy instruments on the sterilization of its base money, the effectiveness of China’s administrative macroeconomic adjustment and control for reducing its non-sterilized base money supply on its macroeconomic and asset markets. This study concludes the continuous surplus of China’s balance of payments has seriously undermined China’s monetary policy autonomy in all three levels; in addition, in the foreseeable future, as long as the Chinese government would not change the current exchange rate regime and the mechanism of foreign exchange management, then China’s monetary authorities might be constantly swamped with the crises of economic disequilibrium and bubble stemmed from its monetary oversupply.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o Plano Real e o Balanço de Pagamentos do Brasil. O que se pretende verificar é se o Plano Real é consentâneo ao sistema de Direito Brasileiro. Para tanto, a análise foi dividida em três blocos. No primeiro, que compreende os Capítulos I e II, foram apresentadas noções indispensáveis para a compreensão do assunto: de preço, poder de compra da moeda e taxa de câmbio. Na oportunidade, também se esclareceu que o Plano Real tinha como principal objetivo combater a inflação no país causada, segundo seus idealizadores, pela indexação da economia e pelo déficit público. A partir deste diagnóstico, o Plano Real é elaborado com base em três principais medidas: ajuste fiscal, criação da Unidade Real de Valor (URV) e adoção de uma âncora cambial. O segundo bloco deste trabalho, integrado pelos Capítulos III a V, vai esmiuçar esta última medida e seus efeitos, bem como as alterações legislativas provocadas pelo Plano Real (principalmente Emendas Constitucionais nº 5 a 9, todas de 1995, e Lei nº 9.069/1995). Aqui também se demonstrará como o Plano Real consagrou a ideologia preconizada pelo Consenso de Washington. No último bloco, composto pelo Capítulo VI, são analisados os efeitos provocados no nível de endividamento público decorrentes das medidas adotadas pelo Plano Real e a alteração das regras jurídicas que tratam da dívida pública que vieram ao encontro dele (principalmente Lei Complementar n° 101/2000). Neste ponto, a partir de um estudo sobre os princípios jurídicos que regem a atividade da administração pública, concluímos que o sistema jurídico brasileiro oferece fundamento suficiente para superação das regras jurídicas (e ideologia) adotadas no país com o advento do Plano Real. / The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the Real Plan, the Brazilian Balance of Payments and if the Real Plan is supported by the Brazilian law system. The analysis is divided into three blocks. First, in Chapters I and II, some indispensable concepts are presented: price, purchasing power of money and exchange rate. On the occasion, it was clarified that the Real Plan had as its main objective fight inflation in the country caused by, according to its creators, the indexation of the economy and the public deficit. Based on that diagnosis, the Real Plan counted on three measures: fiscal adjustment, creation of the Real Value Unit (URV) and adoption of a fixed exchange rate. The second block, through Chapters III to V, scrutinizes the latter measure and its effects, as well as legislative changes brought by the Real Plan (mainly Constitutional Amendments 5-9, all of 1995, and Law nº 9.069/1995). It also demonstrates that the Real Plan established the ideology advocated by the Washington Consensus. In the final section, composed of Chapter VI, the effects of Real Plan on public debt and the change of legal rules on that matter (mainly Law nº 101/2000) are analyzed. At this point, from a study of constitutional principles, we conclude that the Brazilian legal system provides sufficient basis to overcome the legal rules (and ideology) adopted in the country with the advent of the Real Plan.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o Plano Real e o Balanço de Pagamentos do Brasil. O que se pretende verificar é se o Plano Real é consentâneo ao sistema de Direito Brasileiro. Para tanto, a análise foi dividida em três blocos. No primeiro, que compreende os Capítulos I e II, foram apresentadas noções indispensáveis para a compreensão do assunto: de preço, poder de compra da moeda e taxa de câmbio. Na oportunidade, também se esclareceu que o Plano Real tinha como principal objetivo combater a inflação no país causada, segundo seus idealizadores, pela indexação da economia e pelo déficit público. A partir deste diagnóstico, o Plano Real é elaborado com base em três principais medidas: ajuste fiscal, criação da Unidade Real de Valor (URV) e adoção de uma âncora cambial. O segundo bloco deste trabalho, integrado pelos Capítulos III a V, vai esmiuçar esta última medida e seus efeitos, bem como as alterações legislativas provocadas pelo Plano Real (principalmente Emendas Constitucionais nº 5 a 9, todas de 1995, e Lei nº 9.069/1995). Aqui também se demonstrará como o Plano Real consagrou a ideologia preconizada pelo Consenso de Washington. No último bloco, composto pelo Capítulo VI, são analisados os efeitos provocados no nível de endividamento público decorrentes das medidas adotadas pelo Plano Real e a alteração das regras jurídicas que tratam da dívida pública que vieram ao encontro dele (principalmente Lei Complementar n° 101/2000). Neste ponto, a partir de um estudo sobre os princípios jurídicos que regem a atividade da administração pública, concluímos que o sistema jurídico brasileiro oferece fundamento suficiente para superação das regras jurídicas (e ideologia) adotadas no país com o advento do Plano Real. / The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the Real Plan, the Brazilian Balance of Payments and if the Real Plan is supported by the Brazilian law system. The analysis is divided into three blocks. First, in Chapters I and II, some indispensable concepts are presented: price, purchasing power of money and exchange rate. On the occasion, it was clarified that the Real Plan had as its main objective fight inflation in the country caused by, according to its creators, the indexation of the economy and the public deficit. Based on that diagnosis, the Real Plan counted on three measures: fiscal adjustment, creation of the Real Value Unit (URV) and adoption of a fixed exchange rate. The second block, through Chapters III to V, scrutinizes the latter measure and its effects, as well as legislative changes brought by the Real Plan (mainly Constitutional Amendments 5-9, all of 1995, and Law nº 9.069/1995). It also demonstrates that the Real Plan established the ideology advocated by the Washington Consensus. In the final section, composed of Chapter VI, the effects of Real Plan on public debt and the change of legal rules on that matter (mainly Law nº 101/2000) are analyzed. At this point, from a study of constitutional principles, we conclude that the Brazilian legal system provides sufficient basis to overcome the legal rules (and ideology) adopted in the country with the advent of the Real Plan.