Cette thèse met en avant l’analyse du lien entre le marché de la dette de gouvernement, le risque souverain, la stabilité du système financier et le développement des marchés de la dette locale dans les pays émergents. Afin de remplir l’espace vide dans la littérature académique sur les flux obligataires j’ai construit une nouvelle base des données sur les détentions des obligations souveraines par les investisseurs domestiques et étrangers et, par conséquence, j’ai effectué une analyse empirique des déterminants des flux entrants et sortants par type d’investisseur et pays. Ainsi la thèse projette une image complète de la globalisation des marchés de la dette souveraine. / This PhD dissertation presents the analysis of the link between the government debt market, sovereign risk, financial stability and development of the local currency debt in emerging economies. The reserch contribution to the academic literature lies in the empirical analysis of capital flows in bond markets and, for this purpose, I constructed a novel database covering domestic and foreign holdings of government bonds in developed and emerging economies. As a result, this disertation projects a complete and coherent image of the globalisation of sovereign bond markets.

Por que mesmo entre os países com condições econômicas semelhantes o nível de desenvolvimento financeiro é tão diferente? Diversas variáveis políticas e institucionais já foram ressaltadas pela literatura, no entanto desconectadas uma das outras. Esse artigo visa contribuir para a questão fornecendo um modelo que analise as principais variáveis de forma concomitante, tornando endógena a interação entre elas. Para tanto, selecionamos uma amostra de países de renda média alta que compartilham de outras variáveis econômicas centrais e utilizamos o QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis), como método de análise. O estudo conclui que a estabilidade política é a única condição necessária, porém não suficiente. Entre aqueles países estáveis politicamente foi necessário mais um de dois atributos: um alto grau de proteção aos investidores minoritários ou, surpreendentemente, um regime político autocrático. / Why even among countries with similar economic conditions the financial development level is so different? Several political and institutional variables have already been highlighted in the literature, however disconnected from each other. This article aims to contribute to the issue by providing a model to analyze the main variables simultaneously, making endogenous the interaction between them. To achieve this, we selected a sample of middle-income countries who share other core economic variables and use the QCA (Qualitative Comparative Analysis) as the analysis method. The study concludes that political stability is the only necessary condition, but still not sufficient. Those politically stable countries need another one of attributes: a high degree of protection to minority investors or, surprisingly, an autocratic political regime.

Esta pesquisa inova ao investigar a associação de práticas de governança e de características específicas de fundos de pensão brasileiros com o desempenho dos investimentos. Déficits crescentes observados desde 2011, combinados com casos de corrupção e gestão temerária, são fatores que podem contestar a efetividade de fundos de pensão e lançar questionamentos sobre a previdência complementar fechada. O estudo utiliza dados coletados de demonstrações contábeis anuais auditadas de 2011 a 2015 de 41 fundos de pensão do país e que possuem sob a gestão 72% dos investimentos do total das entidades do Brasil. As informações sobre práticas de governança foram obtidas de relatórios internos dos fundos de pensão disponíveis em seus sítios eletrônicos e, também de plataformas eletrônicas como Bloomberg, LinkedIn e Google. Foi desenvolvido estudo quantitativo para investigar o problema de aspectos de governança e de características específicas em fundos de pensão brasileiros e que podem impactar de forma diferenciada o retorno dos ativos sob a gestão. O experimento do trabalho testou dados em painel através do método dos momentos generalizados em dois estágios com uso de variáveis instrumentais. Os resultados indicam evidências de impacto positivo no desempenho dos investimentos quando há uso de melhores práticas de governança como o comitê de investimentos. Sugere-se que estão sendo efetivos a avaliação e o controle de riscos sob esta prática e em benefício dos planos sob a gestão. Porém, há evidências de associação negativa de características no nível destas organizações sobre o retorno dos investimentos. Dentre as características que puderam ser observadas, os resultados sugerem que conexões com governo pelo tipo de patrocínio e existência de contratos de gestão externa dos investimentos por fundo de pensão com patrocinador do setor financeiro, podem influenciar a busca de outros interesses que não o melhor retorno aos planos de benefícios. Entretanto, a partir das mesmas características apresentam-se evidências de associação positiva com uso de melhores práticas de governança. Entende-se que pode haver o incentivo de se manter as condições para atendimento dos interesses políticos de suas relações. Os resultados desta pesquisa trazem contribuições para a discussão de características no nível dos fundos de pensão que podem influenciar o comportamento de seus executivos e para o debate da governança dessas organizações no país. Entende-se que estas contribuições podem ser aplicadas no contexto de demais economias emergentes. Por fim, a pesquisa sugere não ser óbvio que o monitoramento e controle pelos órgãos de supervisão e regulação atual sejam suficientes para evitar a evolução de déficits nos fundos de pensão e de impacto social no longo prazo. O argumento é que sem mecanismos de governança adequados às características no nível das entidades, os executivos em fundos de pensão podem não atuar no interesse único dos participantes dos planos de benefícios. / This research innovates by investigating the association of governance practices and specific characteristics of Brazilian pension funds with the performance of investments. Increasing deficits observed since 2011, combined with cases of corruption and reckless management, are factors that can challenge the effectiveness of pension funds and raise questions about closed private pension plans. The study uses data collected from audited annual financial statements between 2011 and 2015 from 41 pension funds that accounting for 72% of investments in this system. Information on pension fund governance practices was obtained from internal reports available on its websites and also from electronic platforms such as Bloomberg, LinkedIn, and Google. A quantitative study was developed to investigate the problem of governance aspects, and specific characteristics of them that may have a different impact on the return of assets under management. The work experiment tested panel data through the generalized method of moments (GMM) in two stages and use of instrumental variables. The results indicate evidence of a positive impact on the performance of asset under management in the use of governance best-practices such as investment committee. It is suggested that under this practice, risk assessment and control are being effective for the benefit of plans under the management of pension funds. However, there is evidence of a negative association at the organization-level on the return of investments. The results demonstrate that characteristics such as the government connections by the type of sponsorship and the outsourcing of the investment management by pension funds with sponsor from the financial sector can influence the pursuit of interests other than the best return of investments for the benefit plans. However, these same characteristics present evidence of a positive association with the use of governance best-practices. It is understood that the incentive would be to maintain the conditions to attend the political interests of their relations. The results of this research bring contributions to the discussion of characteristics at the level of pension funds that can influence the behavior of its executives and to the debate of their corporate governance in the country. It is understood that these contributions can be applied in the context of other emerging economies. Finally, this paper suggests that it isn´t obvious that monitoring and controlling by current supervisory and regulatory bodies are sufficient to avoid the evolution of deficits in pension funds and greater social impact in the long term. The argument is that without appropriated governance mechanisms to entity-level characteristics, pension fund executives may not act in the sole interest of participants.

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La présente thèse analyse les interactions entre les stratégies de ciblage d’inflation et leur contexte institutionnelau sein des économies émergentes. Plus précisément, les investigations empiriques menées dans le cadre de cettethèse visent à étudier le rôle du cadre institutionnel dans la conduite et l’efficacité de cette stratégie de politiquemonétaire. Pour cela, nous procédons en deux étapes. Dans un premier temps, nous considérons le cadreinstitutionnel comme exogène à l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation et analysons dans quelle mesure ce cadre a pujouer un rôle dans les performances macroéconomiques des pays émergents cibleurs inflation. Ainsi, après avoirposé les bases conceptuelles du ciblage d’inflation et mis en évidence le rôle des pré-requis économiques etinstitutionnels dans le choix des économies émergentes d’adopter cette stratégie de politique monétaire (chapitre1), nous montrons qu’un certain nombre de conditions institutionnelles ont pu renforcer l’efficacité du ciblaged’inflation en termes de stabilité des prix (chapitre 2). Puis, dans un second temps, nous nous plaçons postadoptionet considérons le cadre institutionnel comme endogène à l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation. L’objectifvisé est alors d’analyser la réponse des autorités des économies émergentes à l’adoption de ce cadre de politiquemonétaire. Nous montrons ainsi que l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation exerce un effet disciplinant sur la conduitede la politique budgétaire, en incitant notamment le gouvernement à intensifier ses efforts de mobilisation desrecettes publiques (chapitre 3). Enfin, nous analysons la politique de change des pays émergents cibleursd’inflation et montrons que la poursuite simultanée d’une cible officielle d’inflation et d’une cible implicite dechange peut être contreproductive en termes de performances macroéconomiques, surtout lorsque cette gestiondu change est motivée par des considérations de stabilité financière (chapitre 4). D’où l’importance pour lespays émergents souhaitant adopter une stratégie de ciblage d’inflation de conduire en amont des réformesstructurelles visant à développer leur marché bancaire et financier. / This thesis deals with the interactions between inflation targeting strategies and their institutional framework inemerging economies. More precisely, empirical investigations conducted in this thesis aim to study the role ofthe institutional framework in the conduct and efficiency of inflation targeting. To this end, we proceed in twosteps. First, we consider the institutional framework as exogenous to inflation targeting adoption and analyzewhether this framework has impacted macroeconomic performance of inflation targeting countries. Thus, afterlaying the conceptual background of inflation targeting and showing the importance of economic andinstitutional prerequisites in the choice of emerging countries of adopting this monetary policy strategy (chapter1), we show that some institutional conditions can strengthen the performance of inflation targeting countries interms of inflation level and volatility (chapter 2). Then, in a second step, we consider the institutionalframework as endogenous to inflation targeting and analyze the response of authorities to the adoption of thismonetary policy strategy. The first result that emerges is that the adoption of inflation targeting provides strongincentives to government for improving fiscal discipline, especially the collection of domestic tax revenue(chapter 3). Finally, we analyze the exchange rate policy of inflation targeting emerging economies and showthat the pursuit of two nominal targets, inflation and exchange rate, can be counterproductive in terms ofmacroeconomic performance, more particularly when this exchange rate management is motivated by financialstability considerations (chapitre 4). Hence the importance for inflation targeting candidates of conductingstructural reforms to increase financial development.

[pt] A globalização dos mercados financeiros das últimas décadas trouxe ao centro da discussão de finanças internacionais o conceito de risco-país. A importância do risco para a economia de um país está relacionada ao fato de que, em um ambiente de alta mobilidade de capital, ele acaba sendo um importante balizador da taxa de juros doméstica. Para que se possa compreender a evolução do risco de um país, medido pelo spread de seus títulos no mercado internacional, não basta entender a influência das características específicas dos países, mas é fundamental também avaliar o papel dos choques internacionais. Dentro deste arcabouço, o objetivo central desta dissertação é avaliar de maneira mais precisa o papel das variáveis externas na determinação dos spreads dos países emergentes. Mostraremos que para entender os choques externos sobre os spreads emergentes não basta observar os movimentos da taxa de juros livre de risco, como se supõe na literatura tradicional, mas também é preciso fazer considerações acerca da aversão ao risco dos investidores internacionais, e do contágio entre os países emergentes durante períodos de crise. / [en] The globalization in the financial markets during the last decades brought the concept of country risk to the center of the discussion in international finance. The importance of country risk is related to the fact that, in a high capital mobility environment, it becomes a important determinant of the domestic interest rate. To understand the evolution of the risk of a country, measured by the spread of its bonds in the international markets, it is important not only to comprehend the influence of its specific fundamentals, but also to evaluate the role of the external shocks. In this framework, the central goal of this dissertation is to evaluate more accurately the role of the external variables in the determination of the spreads of the emerging countries. It will be shown that to understand the external shocks it is not enough to observe only the movements of the free risk interest rate, as the traditional literature assume, but it is also necessary to take into account the risk aversion of the international investors, and the contagion between emerging economies during crisis time.

The so-called digital economy has been growing exponentially in the emerging economies and it is expected to continue growing around the globe. For this reason, many governments are funding support programmes (e.g. Start-up America in the USA, the UK’s Tech City, and Brazil Startup) to both encourage and facilitate the creation of Digital Start-ups (DSs), defined here as recentlycreated enterprises that produce solely digital products or services. Whilst in some regions there is some evidence that these efforts are starting to pay off, the majority of DSs that have grown to become global digital enterprises remain concentrated in the United States and Europe. In the case of Latin America, the digital economy already accounts for between 2-3.2% of GDP. Nonetheless, most e-commerce transactions occur through platforms based in the United States, with a scarcity of examples of Latin American DSs (LADSs) that have grown to become large digital firms. Despite this, the literature has paid little attention to the relationship that exists between the institutional environment and LADS’s agency. The few extant studies that do exist have focused on either institutional or infrastructure constraints and public policies, or business models and resource analysis. To address this knowledge gap, this research studied LADSs in the four largest Latin American countries (Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and Colombia), representing three-quarters of the region’s GDP, in order to answer the following questions: How do environmental pressures influence the development of LADSs? How do LADSs respond to these pressures and seize potential business opportunities? The research followed a critical realist philosophical foundation and was operationalised through a qualitative exploratory field study of forty organisations, including DSs, accelerators, investors, government agencies, and not-for-profits. Geel’s (2014) Triple Embeddedness Framework (TEF) was chosen as the theoretical framework to guide this research and integrates constructs from the Lean Start-up method (LSM), which was widely adopted by the LADSs to develop their business models. This study provides empirical support for the constructs outlined in the TEF, identifies crucial shortcomings in LSM, and uncovers new constructs that are necessary to accommodate the DSs’ digital properties, which result in tensions between their embeddedness in the institutional environment, their hybrid embeddedness in a product-sector industry and a digital industry, and their embeddedness in a multi-level organisational field that creates a core-periphery relationship between Latin America and the United States. Therefore, a new framework, entitled DIME, is proposed to assist e-entrepreneurs when developing digital business models to achieve the right firm-environment-fit in Latin America. The findings of this study will also contribute to future research, and to guide policy makers interested in fostering the development of the digital economy in emerging economies.

Submitted by Silvana Teresinha Dornelles Studzinski (sstudzinski) on 2016-08-25T13:11:13Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Luiz Felipe Jostmeier Vallandro_.pdf: 1279034 bytes, checksum: 2e83e11ab40a6df49542fe7525f4485f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-25T13:11:13Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Luiz Felipe Jostmeier Vallandro_.pdf: 1279034 bytes, checksum: 2e83e11ab40a6df49542fe7525f4485f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-06-14 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / Este estudo investigou os fatores determinantes da direção da estratégia de diversificação de grupos empresariais no Brasil. Utilizando a teoria dos custos de transação (WILLIAMSON, 1975; 1979; 1985) e a teoria da agência (JENSEN e MECKLING, 1976) como pilares teóricos, o estudo se propôs a analisar a influência de um conjunto de fatores sobre a escolha da direção da estratégia de diversificação de grupos empresariais brasileiros, que ocorre no sentido de negócios relacionados ou não relacionados (diversificação relacionada X diversificação não-relacionada) à atividade principal do grupo. A estratégia empírica considerou uma amostra de 51 grupos empresariais identificados entre os 200 maiores grupos do Brasil entre 2009 e 2014, de acordo com a publicação do anuário Valor Grandes Grupos. A direção da diversificação tomou a forma de uma variável binária, com valor igual a 1 para a diversificação não-relacionada e zero para a diversificação relacionada. As variáveis utilizadas como os determinantes da direção da diversificação foram: lucratividade, endividamento, capex, risco, ativos físicos, ativos intangíveis, estrutura de propriedade considerando apenas um acionista controlador com ao menos 50% +1 das ações com direito a voto (Definido1), estrutura de propriedade formada por um grupo de acionistas compartilhando o controle (Definido2) e controle familiar. Duas variáveis de controle foram adicionadas: tamanho e oportunidades de crescimento. Os testes empíricos foram executados utilizando regressões probit painel para dados empilhados. As evidências sugerem que existe um conjunto de fatores que influencia a direção da estratégia de diversificação perseguida por grupos empresariais brasileiros. A principal conclusão é que fatores como endividamento, risco, capex e controle acionário exercido por um grupo de acionistas compartilhando o controle do grupo empresarial influenciam positivamente a probabilidade da escolha da diversificação não-relacionada. Por outro lado, fatores como ativos intangíveis e estrutura de propriedade considerando apenas um acionista controlador com ao menos 50% +1 das ações com direito a voto do grupo influenciam negativamente a probabilidade da escolha da diversificação não-relacionada. / This study investigated the determinants of the direction of diversification strategy of business groups in Brazil. Using both transaction costs theory (WILLIAMSON, 1975; 1979; 1985) and agency theory (JENSEN & MECKLING, 1976) as theoretical pillars, this study aimed to analyze the influence of a set of factors on the choice of the direction of diversification strategy of Brazilian business groups, that occurs towards related or unrelated businesses (related vs. unrelated diversification, respectively) to the main activity of the group. The empirical strategy considered a sample of 51 business groups identified among the 200 largest business groups in Brazil between 2009 and 2014, according to the publication of the yearbook Valor Grandes Grupos. The direction of diversification took the form of a binary variable, with the value of one for unrelated diversification, and zero for related diversification. The variables used as the determinants of the direction of diversification were: profitability, debt, capex, risk, physical assets, intangible assets, ownership structure considering only one shareholder holding at least 50% +1 of the shares with voting rights (Definido1), ownership structure formed by a group of shareholders sharing the control (Definido2), and family control. Two control variables were set: size and growth opportunities. Pooled probit panel regressions were used to run the empirical tests. The evidence suggest that a set of factors influences the direction of diversification strategy pursued by Brazilian business groups. The main conclusion is that factors like debt, risk, capex, and ownership structure formed by a group of shareholders sharing the control of the business group influence positively the probability of the choice of unrelated diversification. On the other hand, factors like intangible assets and ownership structure considering only one shareholder holding at least 50% +1 of the shares with voting rights influence negatively the probability of the choice of unrelated diversification.

This dissertation examines the strategic choices of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in host countries that become engaged in war. By combining the resource-based view and resource management theory, and drawing additional insights from research on real options and foreign strategic exit, I link the costs attributable to war to the strategic responses of the MNE at the subsidiary level in a novel firm-vulnerability framework. In particular, I develop theory regarding whether a subsidiary will exit from a host country, and if so, the timing (early or late) and mode (whole or partial) of exit. I test my hypotheses on a sample of 626 subsidiaries from 386 Japanese MNEs representing 51 industries in 23 countries at war, both interstate and civil, over the period 1988 to 2006. In analyzing the exit likelihood and timing decisions with time-varying covariates, I employ an extended Cox proportional hazard model, which allows for random-effects modeling of predictor variables at the subsidiary, parent MNE, and host country levels. To determine the exit mode of subsidiaries that choose exit over staying, I use binomial logit models. To correct for potential sample selection bias, I replicate my exit mode results with a Heckman probit model. My findings suggest that iv increasing strategic flexibility can counterbalance the potential disadvantages associated with leveraging strategically salient resources in high-risk locations. In examining war as a broad-based perturbation capable of destroying not only institutionalized values, but also the physical infrastructure and human capital of firms, this dissertation empirically demonstrates how political violence influences the strategies of MNEs. Furthermore, my interdisciplinary approach in integrating theoretical lenses from climate change and natural environment sustainability with existing management literatures to examine the effect of war on firms serves to enhance our understanding of individuals and collectives in extreme conditions.