The overall aim of this thesis was to identify factors that early in a sick leave period could illuminate people’s resources and obstacles for returning to work; factors that could predict need for professional support in the sick leave process leading to a positive outcome for the individual. This thesis consists of four studies. The studied population was living in a rural part of a northern county in Sweden, and had been on sick leave for 28 days irrespective of diagnosis. The participants have been followed for five years with different investigation methods and subgroups of participants. The thesis was initiated by sending a questionnaire to the participants; the responses were compared to groups of healthy controls. The aim was to find predictors of the likelihood of a return to work that can be identified early in a sick leave period. The main focus was on individual mental resources (Study I). The next phase involved studies of sick leave statistics obtained from the Swedish Social Insurance Office, for the study population two years before and two years after the start of the research project. The material from the sick leave statistics was analysed together with responses from the questionnaire study with Partial Least Square (PLS). This was done to search for connections between the participants and factors of concern for sick leave and returning to work in different subgroups (Study II). In-depth interviews also were conducted to explore what the participants experienced as important in their sick leave process as they progressed back to work, or to long term sick leave or disability pension (Study III). Another study investigated client files in the Swedish Social Insurance Office to describe what information that was possible to find: in terms of medical and vocational rehabilitation including assessments, predictors for the outcome of the sick leave process, and the quality of the information in the files (Study IV). The findings showed significantly lower life satisfaction and psychosocial resources in the study-group compared to the healthy controls. The PLS analysis showed that it was the impact of multiple factors that influenced the study group, and the PLS analysis could help with early prediction of the outcome. Important factors were: personal belief in an ability to work in the future, number of sick leave days in the past, diagnosis, self-evaluated symptoms, life satisfaction and sense of coherence, length of education and sector of employment, and many different consequences in daily life caused by activity limitations. The interview study confirmed these results and added the following important resources: confirmation and support, structural and contextual factors, and participation in the sick leave process. Ideal-types were crystallized that can be identified in the early phases of the sick leave process. The client file study showed that some information was possible to find but a majority of the wanted information was limited why an improvement on the quality of documentation is suggested to give better basis for the files.

Många och gamla! - Hur vill 40-talisterna ha sin framtid inom äldreomsorgen? Syftet med den här studien är att undersöka hur fyra informanter, vilka är födda mellan åren 1940 till 1949, ser på sin framtid som eventuellt hjälpbehövande inom äldreomsorgen samt vilka behov, farhågor och förväntningar de har.  För att utföra denna studie har vi använt oss av en kvalitativ metod med intervjuer, där fyra informanter, två kvinnor och två män deltog. Intresset för studien och framtidens äldreomsorg är stort. Det märktes inledningsvis i studien att många ville få chansen att komma fram och berätta om deras känslor i ämnet. Intervjuerna baseras på ostrukturerade frågor som öppnar upp för informanten att berätta mer än vad strikt strukturerade frågor gör, och intervjuerna fortlöpte mer som samtal. Arbetet bygger på resultatet av intervjuerna och är analyserade med hjälp av livsloppsperspektivet, Eriksons utvecklingsteori och rollteorin.   En av de delar som uppmärksammas i undersökningen är att åsikterna skiftar hos våra informanter om hur dagens äldreomsorg bedrivs och hur de vill ha det i framtiden. En slutsats som dras utifrån studien är att våra informanter inte tror att 40-talisterna kommer att ha mer krav på framtidens äldreomsorg. Det viktigaste för våra informanter var att få vara frisk så de kan få göra det som önskas göra, men även att bli behandlade som människor om och när de blir kunder inom äldreomsorgen är något de prioriterar. En av informanterna upplever den tid han är i nu som en tid då krämporna börjar komma och arbetet blir tyngre att sköta, han ser tillbaka på sin uppväxt och ser att det arbete han haft i ungdomen nu tycks ha satt sina spår. Flertalet av informanterna i studien uppger att de känner att de är på de nedre trappstegen i livet, detta till trots, har ett par av dem som medverkade i studien, svårt att tala om framtiden som hjälpbehövande, då de helst vill se bort, och inte tänka på detta. Ett par av våra informanter tar förgivet att deras anhöriga och då främst barnen kommer att finnas där och strida för dem då det behövs. Det är många i denna generation som inte vågar bli gamla på grund av den vård som finns idag, "Som äldreomsorgen ser ut idag hoppas jag att jag avlider innan det blir dags att få hjälp" uttrycker sig en av våra informanter och härigenom ser vi den rädsla som vi talar om inledningsvis i arbetet.

<p>Essentially this project report is a discussion of mathematical modelling in pension funds, presenting sections from Cairns, A.J.D., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Stochastic lifestyling: Optimal dynamic asset allocation for defined contribution pension plans, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Volume 30, Issue 2006, Pages 843-877, with added details and background material in order to demonstrate the mathematical methods. In the investigation of the management of the investment portfolio, we only use one risky asset together with a bond and cash as other assets in a&nbsp / continuous time framework. The particular model is very much designed according to the members&rsquo / preference and then the funds are invested by the fund manager in the financial market. At the end, we are going to show various simulations of these models. Our methods include stochastic control for utility maximisation among others. The optimisation problem entails the optimal&nbsp / investment portfolio to maximise a certain power utility function. We use MATLAB and MAPLE programming languages to generate results in the form of graphs and tables</p>

Despite abundant studies of the application of pension systems in developed countries, little work has been done on how to apply a sustainable pension system in developing countries. The set-up of pension systems in developed countries and developing countries are expected to be different because in developing countries, labor is concentrated in the informal production sectors, while labor in developed countries is concentrated in the formal production sectors. Informal production sectors are sectors where the government, either central or local government, has little access to implement fiscal policies (taxes and subsidies) on firms and labor. This research develops a comprehensive system on how to set-up pension policies generally in developing countries and specifically in Indonesia. The basic set-up of the pension system suggested in this dissertation is as follows: a short run consumption tax policy to finance a defined benefit plan to support minimum physical needs of the older population, a medium run labor income tax policy to finance individuals' defined contribution fully funded savings plan, and a long run skilled labor creation through university education so that individuals are able to self-finance their own pension savings through the fully funded savings plan. The defined benefit plan is important because it can serve as a societal redistribution tool, while the defined contribution plan serves as a household savings tool. In addition, the skilled labor creation serves as a supporting tool so that the pension program is sustained in the long run. A theoretical model is developed from Auerbach and Kotlikoff overlapping generation (OLG) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and specified for the Indonesian economy by introducing heterogeneity in households, where skilled and unskilled labor exist. In writing the model in terms of computer language, we apply an approach named mathematical programming system for general equilibrium analysis (MPSGE), developed by Thomas Rutherford. Some parameters used in the model are estimated by using econometric methods. The OLG-CGE model is applied in order to analyze the impact of consumption taxes and pension taxes on labor supply and also to calculate the equivalent variation of the distribution of consumption taxes burden across generations. Meanwhile, the impact of skilled labor creation on economic growth is calculated by applying linear algebra. The main macroeconomy data is taken from the Indonesian social accounting matrix (SAM) year 2000. Meanwhile, labor data are taken from the Indonesian labor conditions 1998-2003. The findings in this dissertation are as follows: for the equivalent variations, the consumption taxes for USD 1, USD 2, and USD 3 cash transfers per day person gave more benefit to the skilled labor than to the unskilled ones. In the meantime, the consumption taxes for USD 1 cash transfer gave incentives to the highest amount of labor, both skilled and unskilled labor, to work in the formal sector. The amount of labor after the consumption taxes for USD 1 cash transfer is higher than the initial condition. Increasing the consumption taxes for the USD 2 cash transfer only decreased the amount of labor work in the formal sector, with the amount of skilled labor decreased more than the unskilled labor. In addition, increasing the consumption taxes for the USD 3 cash transfer would also decrease the amount of labor work in the formal sector, with the amount of unskilled labor decreased more than skilled labor. We also find that the elasticity of government education expenditures on skilled labor creation is roughly 0.3. This means that if the Indonesian central government would like to eliminate the informal sector by 25 percent within 20 years, or an average 1.25 percent annually, they should increase the government education expenditures to 8 percent of total annual government budget. Other findings are that the increase of skilled labor would contribute positively to Indonesian economic growth, while the consumption taxes and the fully funded pension taxes would be likely to reduce current economic growth but increase the future one. Finally, these are the theoretical contributions to public finance literature: first, given dual formal and informal labor sectors present in an economy, where the latter is dominant, taxation of expenditures is preferred to taxation of income because the first may induce labor to work in the formal sector; second, given dual formal and informal labor sectors present in an economy, where the latter is dominant, there exists an optimal rate of consumption taxes that provides incentives for the highest amount of labor, skilled and unskilled labor, to work in the formal sector.

The scope of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of pension reform on the financial incentives to retire for private sector workers in Austria. How do financial incentives embedded in the Austrian pension system affect individual retirement behavior? Was pension reform effective in changing these financial incentives in order to affect retirement behavior? How would future reform scenarios impact retirement behavior? Micro-estimating the impact of financial incentive measures on the probability of retirement shows that the behavioral response to financial incentives in Austria is relatively large in international comparison. Simulations demonstrate that pension reform was ineffective in providing incentives for delayed retirement. However, there are future reform scenarios that would have a huge impact on retirement behavior by altering the financial incentives.

The main objective of this thesis is to analyse if and to what extent changes in the labour market can be regarded as a factor influencing the risk of becoming a disabil­ity pensioner. Disability pension is a social security program operating in the nexus of work and welfare and is provided to people who, due to medical reasons, are limited in their work ability. The data material analysed consists of information about all individuals who received disability pension in 1988 (54 000) and 1993 (62 000) in Sweden. Samples fremi the non-pensioner population formed control- groups. The data collected covers mainly social and occupational background of the individuals. The first step in the analyses addressed the question of causes of disability pen­sion in general. This part showed that the causes must be seen in a multifactorial perspective. Individual, structural and institutional factors have significant impact on the relative risk of becoming a disability pensioner. An increased relative risk was associated with low educational background, immigration and broken marriages. However, the variables that had the strongest effect were age, health and position in the labour market i.e. social class and occupation. It became obvious that one im­portant mechanism explaining the impact of occupation was exposition of work environment conditions. The second step in the analyses focused on labour market change as a risk-factor. The results showed a negative correlation between employment change rates and disability pension. Individuals in occupations and industries with decreasing num­ber of emplyoees had an increased relative risk. It became clear that especially un­skilled workers and employees with a peripheral position were affected by this factor. This was especially true for women. The female labour market is to a large extent dependent on the public service sector and the reductions within this sector have resulted in an increased frequency of disability pensioning. To conclude, the study has shown that disability pension in Sweden is deeply embedded in the labour market and the occupational structure in Sweden. This can be explained both as a consequence of characteristics that accompany certain posi­tions at the labour market and as an effect of how the labour market develops. / digitalisering@umu

Ce mémoire porte sur la métamorphose des fonds de pension en tant qu'organisations financières dont les activités de placement sont destinées à l'accumulation d'un revenu de retraite. Cette métamorphose est réfléchie dans le cadre d'une analyse de la financiarisation du capitalisme avancé. La financiarisation est définie comme un processus social via lequel la finance tend à encastrer sa propre logique au sein de la régulation de l'activité économique des sociétés contemporaines. Les fonds de pension jouent un rôle moteur au sein de ce processus en raison de leur capacité organisationnelle à centraliser l'épargne salariale et à la convertir en investissement sur les marchés financiers. Nous observons d'une part, qu'en s'accaparant une portion importante des actions émises par les entreprises ainsi que des titres de créance des États, les fonds de pension ont acquis une puissance financière considérable leur permettant d'influencer le fonctionnement normal de l'économie. D'autre part, nous relevons que ce développement financier des fonds de pension semble se construire en opposition avec leur objectif premier de financer les retraites des salariés. Ainsi, à partir du cas canadien, cette recherche s'intéresse plus spécifiquement aux transformations qui animent les fonctions d'intermédiation financière et de protection sociale des fonds de pension dans le contexte de leur montée en puissance. Celle-ci est d'abord située (chapitre I) dans un cadre théorique macro-institutionnel où nous démontrons que le redéploiement de la finance dans l'économie s'appuie en grande partie sur le travail d'intermédiation effectué par ces fonds entre l'épargne, les marchés financiers et les industries. Une revue de la littérature scientifique vient ensuite préciser notre problématique en dégageant les conséquences paradoxales du développement financier des fonds de pension sur le salariat. Après avoir posé ces premiers repères utiles à la compréhension de notre objet de recherche, nous produisons au chapitre II une analyse socio-historique du développement des fonds de pension au Canada. Celle-ci prend la forme d'une typologie historique à travers laquelle sont reconstituées empiriquement les principales phases ayant ponctué le procès d'institutionnalisation des fonds de pension au sein de la société canadienne, et ce, tant sur le plan financier que sur le plan de la protection sociale. Nous proposons finalement au dernier chapitre une interprétation sociologique de la détérioration de la qualité de la protection sociale fournie par les fonds de pension. En nous appuyant sur une analyse détaillée de l'intrusion du risque financier au sein de la structure institutionnelle et organisationnelle des fonds de pension canadiens, nous tentons de démontrer que ces derniers obéissent maintenant à la logique de la spéculation financière au détriment de la logique de la protection sociale. ______________________________________________________________________________ MOTS-CLÉS DE L’AUTEUR : Fonds de pension, financiarisation, protection sociale, retraite, capitalisme avancé, finance, marché, organisation

This study examined the determinants of public pension fund performance through the lens of agency theory. The study sought to answer the following questions: (1) How much of the fluctuation in the performance of pension plans is due to political interference - either directly from decisions made by legislatures or through the governance structure of the pension boards, after controlling for asset allocation, plan size, and other external factors? (2) Do pension board expertise, education and training, and information disclosure requirements improve the performance of pension plans? (3) Do pension trustees strategically determine the actuarial rate of return (discount rate) in order to reduce contributions in times of fiscal stress for the pension sponsor? Using longitudinal data of pension fund performance over the period 2000 to 2009 and instrumental variables methods to address endogeneity issues, the study found partial support for the agency theory hypotheses. The results indicate that political interference through reduced contributions was the main factor explaining pension performance. There was no direct evidence about the negative impact of politically appointed trustees on pension performance. The impact of these findings for current policy and future research are discussed.

Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka om AP7 uppfyller sitt mål att ge sina sparare minst lika bra pension som övriga premiepensionssparare Metod: Uppsatsen baseras på en kvantitativ metod. Avkastningar riskjusteras med hjälp av Treynorkvot, Sharpekvot och Jensens Alfa för att kunna jämföras mot varandra. Slutsatser:AP7:s riskjusterade avkastning ligger något under Sveriges övriga premiepensionsfonder sett till både PPM-index och genomsnittet för de nio mest valda PPM-fonderna år 2013. AP7 har presterat en sämre riskjusterad avkastning än SIXRX och en bättre riskjusterad avkastning än en svensk statsobligation sett till undersökningsperioden.

Intention: The purpose of this thesis is to see if an active investment decision in the Swedish Premium Pension System would result in a higher return than a non-active investment decision. A non-active investment decision is equivalent to leaving the money in AP7 Premium Savings Fund. Method: This thesis is a statistical analysis and has a descriptive character in which the calculations are based on secondary data, thus the thesis has a quantitative character. Furthermore three active portfolios in different risk categories have been chosen. These portfolios are compared with the AP7 Premium Savings Fund’s returns. The thesis is deductive because it is using existing financial theories to do empirical examinations. Conclusion: Generally, higher risk is equal to higher returns. This thesis shows that an active investment of the premium pension should be done in portfolios with higher risk. Therefore the selected low-risk portfolio has lower returns than AP7 Premium Savings Fund. Further Research: The authors would find it interesting to redo this study in the future with the new AP7 Såfa as a benchmark. / Syfte: Studien avser att se om ett aktivt sparande och förvaltande av premiepensionen leder till en högre avkastning i jämförelse mot att låta pengarna ligga kvar i AP7 Premiesparfond Metod: Studien är en statistik analys och har en deskriptiv karaktär där sekundärdata ligger till grund för beräkningarna. Studien kan således ses som en kvantitativ studie. Vidare har tre stycken aktiva portföljval i tre olika riskkategorier tagits fram för att jämföras med AP7 Premiesparfonds avkastning. Studien är deduktiv då den empiriska prövningen sker med hjälp av redan befintliga finansiella teorier. Slutsats: Generellt sett ger högre risk en högre avkastning. Studien visar att om premiepensionen ska förvaltas aktivt bör detta göras i portföljer med högre risk. Då den valda lågriskportföljen gav lägre avkastning än AP7 Premiesparfond. Vidare forskning: Författarna anser det intressant att jämföra om AP7 Såfa skulle gynna icke aktiva sparare i högre grad än den gamla AP7 premiesparfonden. AP7 Såfa är en generationsfond där risken anpassas efter spararens ålder. Studien bör därför omprövas då det finns tioårig historik om AP7 Såfa.