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Estudo da volatilidade da série de preços da soja por meio de modelos GARCH e modelos ARFIMA / Volatility of soybean price range using GARCH models and ARFIMA modelsGabriel Tambarussi Avancini 20 February 2015 (has links)
O objetivo deste trabalho foi estudar o comportamento da volatilidade do preço da soja negociada em contratos futuros na BM&FBOVESPA (série SFI). O estudo foi realizado por meio da comparação entre duas abordagens: na primeira, foi utilizada a série de retornos absolutos da série em questão para representar a volatilidade da mesma, que se mostrou persistente ao longo do tempo, comprovando o fato de que a série possui o comportamento de memória longa. Por ter apresentado tal comportamento, fez-se necessária a utilização de modelos ARFIMA (\"Autorregressivos Fracionários Integrados de Médias Móveis\") estes, que são capazes de capturar de maneira efetiva tal comportamento. Ainda dentro desta abordagem, os modelos foram estimados de duas maneiras distintas: a primeira, em que todos os parâmetros foram estimados simultaneamente e a segunda, em que primeiramente foi estimado o parâmetro de memória longa, diferenciada a série e, posteriormente, foram ajustados os modelos ARIMA nos dados diferenciados. Por fim, a segunda abordagem utilizada no trabalho é a mais comum em pesquisas acadêmicas: foi realizada a estimação dos modelos GARCH (\"Autorregressivos Generalizados de Heteroscedasticidade Condicional\") diretamente na série de retornos. Neste estudo, concluímos que a primeira abordagem se mostrou mais eficiente, dados os critérios de comparação utilizados. / The purpose of this article was to study the volatility of the soybean price traded in futures contracts on the BM&FBOVESPA (SFI series). The study was conduct by comparison between two approaches: first, was use the series of absolute returns of the respective series, to represent its volatility, which was persistent over time, proving the fact that the series has a long memory behavior. Because of such behavior, it was necessary to use ARFIMA models (\"Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average\"), which are able to capture effectively such behavior. Still using this approach, the models were estimate in two different ways: first, which all parameters were estimate simultaneously, and the second one, that was first estimated the long memory parameter, differentiated the series and, later, adjusted the ARIMA models in differentiated data. Finally, the second approach used in this work is the most common in academic research: the estimation of GARCH models (\"Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heretoscskedasticity\") directly in the returns series of the studied series. In this study, we conclude that the first approach was more effective, given the comparison criteria used.
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Understanding the Complexity of Product Returns Management: A Complex Adaptive Systems Theory PerspectiveEspinosa, Jennifer Anne 26 May 2016 (has links)
The core essence of a marketing transaction is the exchange of value between two parties. Quite often, the exchange of value describes a customer purchasing a product from a company. When purchasing products, the exchange of value can often fail due to product defects or customer dissatisfaction. When the marketing exchange fails, customers often desire an avenue for recourse to right the exchange imbalance. Accepting and quickly processing product returns represents a strategic tool companies can leverage to maintain healthy relationships with customers, despite an exchange failure. Effectively managing product returns also benefits companies financially, by reducing inventory levels, costs, and the risk of product obsolescence. Despite providing both relationship management and financial benefits, numerous companies struggle to manage product returns effectively. In a time when companies are facing a growing number of product returns due to omni-channel retailing and online shopping, implementing an effective system to manage product returns has become a vital strategic tool necessary to maintain competitiveness.
First, the current research answers the question of why do companies struggle with product returns? by identifying the important components of an effective product returns system. Informed by complex adaptive systems theory and based on a qualitative, grounded theory analysis, the current research finds that the hidden complex nature of managing product returns prevents numerous companies from implementing an effective system to mange returns. Managing product returns requires five important components (firm capabilities, employees, the returns management information system, organizational climate, and the customer service boundary), which interact with each other multiple times to process a product return. After identifying the important components and interactions within a product returns system, Essay I integrates the information together to form a substantive theory of the complexity of product returns management. The substantive theory implies that companies looking to improve their management of product returns need to understand and invest in multiple components within the product returns system.
Second, the current research answers the question of how do the employees, returns management information system, and climate for creativity components of a product returns system relate to a firm’s flexibility, adaptability, and performance? To answer this research question, this dissertation empirically evaluates the role these three components play in shaping a firm’s flexibility, adaptability, subjective performance and relationship quality by analyzing data collected through an online survey with 102 US managers with experience in product returns. The empirical analysis indicates that employee decision-making resources show a statistically significant negative relationship with firm adaptability, while the firm’s climate for creativity and flexibility show a statistically significant positive relationship with firm adaptability. Firm adaptability shows statistically significant positive relationships with subjective performance and relationship quality. Firm adaptability acts as a partial or full mediator in all of these relationships.
The combined findings of Essay I and Essay II point to the importance of product returns as a strategic relationship management tool. Firms that can effectively manage product returns give employees more flexibility to respond to problems, are better able to make structural changes, have higher subjective performance ratings, and better quality relationships with customers.
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Kundvärde i konsumentreturer : En jämförande studie om hur svenska e-handelsföretag inom modebranschen skapar kundvärde genom returns management-processen / Customer value in consumer returns : A comparative study on how Swedish e-commerce companies within the fashion industry creates costumer value through the returns management processLindahl, Astrid, Andersson, Nathalie, Westman, Pauline January 2019 (has links)
Digitalisering är idag en av de mest inflytelserika trenderna inom modebranschen, vilket bland annat är starkt kopplat till att e-handel blivit ett allt mer självklart val för konsumenter. I samband med detta har konsumenter i allt större utsträckning börjat betrakta sitt eget hem som provrummet i den digitala butiken, vilket har lett till att returer är ett växande problem för e-handelsföretag. Samtidigt visar flertalet studier att de kunder som returnerar varor är mer lönsamma än de kunder som inte gör det och att en väl fungerande returhanteringsprocess ökar förtroendet för företaget. Returer bör därmed betraktas likt en tjänst som erbjuds kunden, där det finns möjlighet för företaget att påverka kundvärdet ytterligare. Vidare skapas kundvärde när företaget erbjuder en returtjänst som stödjer kundens köpbeteende, och därmed ses returhanteringsprocessen som en potentiell konkurrensfördel. Därför krävs det att e-handelsföretag idag arbetar strategiskt för att minska antalet returer och effektivisera returhanteringen genom sin returns management-process. Syftet med denna uppsats är därför att jämföra hur svenska e-handelsbaserade modeföretag inom varierande marknadsnivåer arbetar med returpolicy, gatekeeping och avoidance som en del av returns management-processen, samt hur dessa aktiviteter bidrar till respektive företags kundvärde. Med utgångspunkt i detta har en kvalitativ undersökning genomförts i form av semistrukturerade intervjuer med tre svenska e-handelsföretag inom modebranschen som en del av studiens primärdata. Då deltagarfrekvensen för intervjuerna blev lägre än förväntat, genomfördes även en kvalitativ dokumentstudie på företagens hemsidor samt på ytterligare sex e-handelsbaserade modeföretags hemsidor. Avslutningsvis genomfördes även en semistrukturerad intervju med ett svenskt företag, vilket erbjuder digitala produkter för e-handel inom returns management. Det insamlade datamaterialet analyserades med hjälp av tematisk analys utifrån de modeller som presenteras i den teoretiska referensramen: Porters (1985) värdekedja samt Rogers et al. (2002) returns management-modell vilken är uppdelad i en strategisk och en operationell process. Utifrån detta konstaterar studien att för att förbli konkurrenskraftig på den digitala modemarknaden, krävs det att företagets och marknadsnivåns kundlojalitet samt kundnöjdhet beaktas. Dessa faktorer, vilka relaterar till kundvärde, bör överstiga kostnaden för att erbjuda kunden en generös returpolicy i form av fria returer och längre ångerrätt. Vidare konstaterar studien att företagen bör fokusera på att ständigt förbättra sitt avoidance-arbete utifrån kundens efterfrågan, samt att gatekeeping-processen bör fullföljas utifrån vilken marknadsnivå företaget tillhör. Sammanfattningsvis leder avsaknaden av en digitaliserad returns management-process till ett mer reaktivt arbete snarare än proaktivt. Därmed konstaterar studien att e-handelsföretag bör implementera och anpassa digitalisering utefter dess storlek, förutsättningar samt marknadsnivå inom sin returns management-process. / c
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The Impact of Finance Mergers and Acquisitions on Short-Term Performance of Acquiring Companies : An Event Study Focused on the British IslesRamos Nogales, Juan Jose, Elshani, Kreshnik January 2020 (has links)
Background: Mergers and acquisitions (M&A’s) are common ways for businesses to expand, compete, and maintain in competitive business environments. A strongly debated question in literature is whether or not these M&A’s provide measurable benefits, as factors such as industry, geographic location, and regulations play key roles in the impacts of the M&A’s. In this paper, we investigate the short-term effects of M&A’s based on stock returns of acquiring companies, with a focus on finance industries in the British Isles. Purpose: The purpose is to study whether or not there are significant short-term abnormal returns for acquiring companies when M&As of financial services target enterprises take place. Further, the study examines factors which can affect the impact of M&A’s, such as size of transaction, whether it is domestic or cross-border, whether or not the acquiring company is in a finance industry, and whether there is evidence of merger waves related to finance M&A’s in the British Isles. Method: An event study methodology is applied and focused on calculating the cumulative abnormal returns, as well as verifying whether those are statistically significant. The study analyses 100 M&A’s conducted on target companies from the UK and Ireland between the years 2000 and 2019. The event study is performed using the STATA statistical software, which is used to analyse the stock return performance in comparison to the domestic market index for each acquiring company. Conclusion: The study finds statistically insignificant results, concluding that M&A events do not generate significant abnormal returns for acquiring companies. This is in line with majority of previous research done, showing that M&A deals are not deemed significantly value creating nor value destroying. M&A’s within finance industry where the acquiring companies were domestic, in a finance industry, where the deals were smaller, were all shown to have less negative, albeit still insignificant results. This study also presents evidence for merger waves. Moreover, this thesis adds a clear geographic and industry component which is often missing in previous research, showing that within finance industry in the British Isles the impacts of M&A deals are unlikely to be statistically significant in causing abnormal returns.
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The Performance of Private Equity-backed IPOs in SwedenSaers, Jozephine, Ugur, Alparslan January 2022 (has links)
This thesis examines the initial performance of private equity-backed IPOs in relation to non-private-equity-backed IPOs listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and Nasdaq First North Growth Market during the years 2011-2021. It further measures the effect of independent variables on the return after the first day- and first week of trading as well as if the first day performance impacts the first week performance. Previous research finds that IPOs in general are underpriced, and that private equity-backed IPOs tend to perform poorer than non-private-equity-backed IPOs on the first day of trading. Previous research further finds that underpriced IPOs have poor aftermarket performance since the issues usually decline during the first couple of days of trading, subsequently converging towards a lower price rapidly after listing, making it less profitable to invest in an IPO in the aftermarket. Univariate and multivariate analyses test this and the findings indicate that the first day return impacts the first week performance. It also finds that larger private equity-backed IPOs are underpriced and show poorer first day performance compared with larger non private-equity-backed-IPOs. Yet, this is not found to hold for the total sample covering all offering sizes. However, our findings cannot confirm that private equity-backed IPOs would show poorer performance compared with non-private-equity-backed IPOs after the first week of trading. Among the independent variables, the nominal offer price was found to have a significant impact on the first day return alongside with which stock exchange the company was listed on.
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Exploring the Effects of Cover Crop Use on Farm Profitability in Central IndianaMegan N. Hughes (8775677) 02 May 2020 (has links)
Cover crop use provides a myriad of benefits to soil health. Despite strong agronomic evidence of the benefits of using cover crops, farmers have been slow to adopt cover crop systems. Surveys show that this is due to a lack of understanding on how cover crop use will impact the farm, and limited economic analysis on the effects of cover crop use on the farm. <div> In this thesis, a variable-rate nitrogen study was analyzed to determine the relationship between applied nitrogen fertilizer and corn yields, and how a cover crop treatment impacts that relationship. Data were obtained from a case farm in Central Indiana. Production information was then translated into a partial budget to see how the use of the different cover crop treatments impacted net return per acre for corn production on the farm. Net returns were analyzed using both historical corn and nitrogen prices and stochastic modelling.</div><div> Results showed that the final impact on farm net return per acre associated with adoption of a cover crop system varies among cover crop species. Implementing annual rye resulted in a negative change to net return; while cereal rye and an oats and radish blend resulted in a positive change to net return. When additional benefits of cover crop use; such as drought tolerance, carbon content, and erosion reduction; are included, all three cover crop species resulted in a substantial increase in net return. This information will be of interest to farmers as a source to draw upon when making decisions regarding their own farms. Further research is needed to fully understand the relationship between cover crop use and farm profitability, particularly for farms at the early stages of adoption.</div>
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Do the Goal Sanctify the Mean? : An event study of how the Swedish market reacts to ESG newsNilsson, Lillen, Sehgal, Kabir January 2022 (has links)
The primary objective of profit-maximizing companies has long been seen as satisfying its shareholders. However, this orthodox view of corporate governance has been modernized as corporate social responsibility have become more relevant. In essence, corporate sustainability performance has evolved and is now divided into environmental, social and corporate governance, also known as ESG, closely scrutinized by all stakeholders. The main purpose of this study is to investigate how ESG disclosures about Swedish-listed companies affect their market value. By analyzing these results, using both conventional and complementary theories in behavioral finance, the researchers in this study also aspires to add new perspectives to the research field on why and how the market reacts as it does. This aim was then fulfilled by quantifying the impact of 195 ESG news on market capitalization using three-event studies. The results are sufficiently reliable to confirm both hypotheses of the study. The findings support both theories and previous research in the sense that deviations from the social contract between firms and stakeholders damage firms' legitimacy. Furthermore, the study’s results show that market reactions are asymmetric. Firstly, with the implication that the negative impact of negative news exceeds the corresponding positive impact of positive news. Secondly, with the meaning that positive news results in a negative impact on market value. This can be attributed to market psychological factors and other factors, such as Swedish investors' valuation of sustainability work. In addition, the opposite market reaction to positive news is consistent with studies suggesting that certain ESG news are perceived as greenwashing. Against this background, the study concludes that companies' sustainability work and ESG compliance are not profitable to the extent previously advocated. However, the indirect cost of not acting in a socially responsible manner is greater than the opposite. / Det primära målet för vinstmaximerande bolag har länge ansetts vara att tillfredsställa aktieägarna. Denna ortodoxa syn på bolagsstyrning har dock moderniserats i takt med att hållbarhet och samhällsansvar blivit mer aktuellt. I huvudsak har bolagens hållbarhetsarbete utvecklats och delas numera upp i miljöfrågor, sociala frågor och bolagsstyrning, även kallat ESG, något som noga granskas av intressenter. Det primära syftet med denna studie är att undersöka ESG nyheters inverkan på svensknoterade bolags börsvärden. Genom att analysera dessa resultat, med såväl konventionella som kompletterande teorier inom beteendeekonomi, ämnar författarna även att kunna bidra med nya perspektiv till forskningen om hur, men även varför, marknaden reagerar som den gör. Detta syfte har sedan uppfyllts genom att kvantifiera 195 ESG nyheters inverkan på börsvärde med hjälp av tre eventstudier. Resultaten är tillräckligt tillförlitliga för att bekräfta studiens båda hypoteser. Fynden stödjer såväl teorier som tidigare forskning, i den mening att avvikelser från det sociala kontraktet mellan företag och intressenter skadar företagens legitimitet. Vidare visar studiens resultat att marknadsreaktionerna är asymmetriska. I första hand i det avseendet att den negativa inverkan från negativa nyheter överstiger den positiva inverkan från positiva nyheter. I andra hand i den bemärkelsen att positiva nyheter leder till en negativ inverkan på marknadsvärde. Detta kan hänföras till marknadspsykologiska faktorer och andra faktorer, som exempelvis svenska investerares värdering av hållbarhetsarbete. Vidare är den motsatta marknadsreaktionen till positiva nyheter i linje med studier som antyder att vissa ESG nyheter kan tolkas som grönmålning. Mot denna bakgrund konkluderar studien att bolagens hållbarhetsarbete och efterlevnad av ESG inte är lönsamt i den utsträckning som tidigare förespråkats. Dock är den indirekta kostnaden för att ej agera socialt ansvarsfullt större än motsatsen.
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Effekterna Av Räntehöjningar På Svenska Aktier Och Banksektorns Reaktioner : En kvantitativ eventstudie hur räntehöjningar påverkar företag på Large-Cap-listan / The Effects of Increased Interest Rates on the Swedish Stock Market and Bank Sector Reactions : A Quantitative Event Study Investigating the Impact of Interest Rate Hikes on Large-Cap Listed CompaniesBeronius, Elin, Burvall, Elsa January 2023 (has links)
Bakgrund: Med ökade styrräntor och stigande inflation har det blivit viktigt att förstå hur dessa förändringar påverkar ekonomin, företag och aktiemarknaden. Forskning visar att räntebesked kan påverka både aktiemarknaden och banksektorn med effekter på avkastning och volatilitet. Bankerna har som bekant en särskild funktion i den svenska ekonomin genom att svara för finansiering och betalningstjänster till näringsliv och offentlig sektor. Syfte: Studiens syfte är att undersöka de effekter som uppstår vid förändringar i Riksbankens styrränta på den svenska aktiemarknaden och inom banksektorn. Metod: En kvantitativ eventstudie med en deduktiv forskningsansats har genomförts. Undersökningen består av sju olika observationer på ränteförändringar av aktier på den svenska OMX Large Cap-listan. De olika observationerna är räntehöjningar rapporterade av Riksbanken mellan åren 2019-2023. Teori: Studien utgår från den effektiva marknadshypotesen vilket kompletterats med tidigare forskning om ränteförändringar och bankers påverkan av räntehöjningar. Slutsatser: Studien finner inte bevis för statistiskt signifikant samband mellan Riksbankens räntehöjningar och den svenska aktiemarknaden. Inom banksektorn fanns inte heller tillräckliga bevis för att visa på en abnormal avkastning vid tillkännagivandet av ett räntebeslut. Resultatet stöds av den effektiva marknadshypotesen. De få resultat som visade på abnormal avkastning bör därför studeras vidare. Externa faktorer borde inkluderas för att förklara skillnaderna i reaktionerna på den svenska aktiemarknaden. / Background: With increasing policy rates and rising inflation, understanding how these changes impact the economy, businesses, and the stock market has become crucial. Research has shown that interest rate announcements can affect both the stock market and banks, influencing returns and volatility. Banks play a central role in the Swedish economy by offering financing and payment services. Purpose: This study aims to examine the effects of changes in the Swedish central bank's policy rate on the Swedish stock market and banking sector. Methodology: A quantitative event study with a deductive research approach was conducted. The study consists of seven different observations on interest rate changes affecting stocks listed on the Swedish OMX Large Cap List. These observations cover interest rate hikes reported between 2019 and 2023. Theory: The study is based on the efficient market hypothesis, complemented by previous research on interest rate changes and the impact of rate hikes on banks. Conclusions: The study shows no significant relationship between Swedish central bank's interest rate hikes and the overall stock market. Similar findings were observed within the banking sector. This can be explained by the efficient market hypothesis, which suggests that all relevant information is already reflected in stock prices. The efficient market hypothesis also supports the lack of market reactions, thus future research should consider external factors that could explain differences in reactions within the Swedish stock market.
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Konsumentreturer online : en studie om hur e-handelsföretag inom mode kan förebygga returer / Customer returns online : a study about e-commerce companies returnsprevention strategies within fashionArvidsson, Fredrika, Grapp, Ellinor, Södergren, Ellen January 2020 (has links)
Näthandeln ökar över hela världen, och i Sverige är kläder och skor de största produktgrupperna som inhandlas online. I samband med detta ökar även antalet produktreturer, då förutsättningarna hos e-handelsföretag är annorlunda jämfört med fysiska butiker. Denna uppsats syftar till att undersöka vilka aspekter som kvinnliga konsumenter upplever som viktigast när en modeprodukt presenteras på en e-handelssida, och hur detta påverkar deras returbeteende. Vidare undersöks användarvänlighet på en e-handelssida, i form av befintliga funktioner och information gällande hur en produkt presenteras. Resultatet av de kvantitativa studier, i form av en enkät och en nulägesbeskrivning genominnehållsanalys, som gjorts i samband med uppsatsen visar att korrekta och utförligaproduktbeskrivningar är viktiga i processen innan köpet genomförs. Det är inte bara mängden av information som är viktigt, även kvaliteten hos den angivna informationen uppges vara viktig. Detta uppdagades också i nulägesbeskrivningen som gjordes av tre undersökta ehandelsföretag. Samtliga uppvisade en hög grad av användarvänlighet, vilket innebar att de hade många tillgängliga funktioner. Alla tre företag har dock höga returgrader, vilket indikerar på bristande kvalitet gällande den tillgängliga informationen. Resultatet visar också på likheter angående vad konsumenterna upplever som viktigt i en produktbeskrivning, och vad de upplever behöver förbättras. Baserat på resultatet av konsumentstudien samt kartläggningen av nuläget i de aktuella ehandelsföretagen, påvisas hur e-handelsföretag inom mode kan utveckla sitt avoidance-arbete utifrån konsumenternas efterfrågan. Då returgraderna inte är beroende av användarvänlighet i denna specifika undersökning, kan det också konstateras att användarvänligheten inte är den huvudsakliga påverkande kraften i konsumenternas returbeteende. / Online shopping is increasing all over the world, and in Sweden, clothing and shoes are the largest product groups to be purchased online. As a consequence, product returns are increasing as well, due to the conditions of online shopping being different to those in a brick and-mortar store. The purpose of this paper, which is written in Swedish, is to examine which aspects of the online product presentation are perceived to be the most important by female consumers, and how that affects their return behavior. Furthermore, user experience is examined via the available features and information regarding how a product is presented. The results of the performed quantitative studies, which include a questionnaire and a description of the present state of e-commerce companies through a content analysis of their websites, show that accurate and extensive product descriptions are important in the prepurchase process. However, it is not only the amount of information that is important, but also the quality of the provided information. This was also uncovered in the description of the present state, which was an analysis carried out on three e-commerce companies. All three displayed a high level of user experience, which meant a large number of available features. All three companies also displayed high return rates, which indicates a lack of quality in regard to the information provided. The results also show similarities in terms of what the consumers perceive to be important in a product description, while at the same time needing to be improved. Through the results of the consumer study and the description of the present state within the examined e-commerce companies, this study suggests ways for e-commerce fashion companies to develop their avoidance strategies, based on consumer demand. Because the return rates are not dependent on user experience in this particular survey, it was found that user experience is not the main influencing force in the consumers’ return behavior.
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Does the Fama-French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model explain portfolio returns better than CAPM? : - A study performed on the Swedish stock market.Rehnby, Nicklas January 2016 (has links)
This essay will compare the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama and French threefactor model and Carhart´s four-factor model, to see which of these models that can explain portfolio excess returns best on the Swedish stock market. This thesis will tempt to validate the three and four-factor models because of the limited amount of research done on the Swedish stock market. The results indicate that the three-factor model improves explanatory power for portfolio returns in comparison to the CAPM, and the four-factor model gives a small improvement in the explanatory power compared to the three-factor model. The results also indicate that all models have a low explanatory power when the market is volatile.
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