台灣政商關係綿密而深化，企業往往透過各種方式建立政商關係，建立與政府組織的網絡關係，並獲得企業經營上的資源與能力。自從1996年台灣舉辦首次的總統大選後，選舉議題就一直是國人關心的焦點。本研究以台灣地區擔任重要企業協會組織之常務理事之個人所屬之企業為政商關係判定的標準，繼而以台灣總統大選為研究事件，以事件研究法探討總統大選對有政商關係企業之企業價值的影響。 由於台灣2004年之總統大選過後發生嚴重的藍綠衝突，該次結果造成政治經濟上的動盪反映在當時的股票市場，本研究將該次事件視為特殊事件，因此在研究上分別針對採用2004年樣本與排除2004年樣本來進行研究。研究結果發現，若採用2004年之樣本，則選舉事件會使得有政商關係企業之股票價值出現負向的異常報酬，但若政黨輪替與否對股價異常報酬所造成的影響則沒有顯著性的差異；若排除2004年的資料，研究結果則發現有無政黨輪替確實會對有政商關係企業之企業股價產生顯著性的影響。因此企業經營者與投資人應將選舉事件對公司價值所造成的影響納入考量，才能在企業經營與投資策略上做出最理想的決策。

台資企業赴港上市是否有折價發行現象？影響折價幅度的因素為何？赴港上市的台資企業三個月、六個月、九個月以及一年報酬又受到哪些因素影響？本研究以2001年至2007年為止赴香港上市的台資企業為研究對象，得出31家樣本公司初次公開發行之平均原始報酬率（raw return）為7.228%，經香港恆生指數調整後的平均折價幅度(adjusted return)為7.276%，顯示台資企業赴港上市的確存在著折價發行的現象。迴歸分析之研究結果與Ejara and Ghosh（2004）結論一致，有在台上市櫃母公司的台資企業，折價幅度顯著低於無在台上市櫃母公司之台資企業。此外，香港股市景氣以及前一檔台資企業的首日超額報酬皆為影響下一檔台資企業折價幅度的顯著因子。實證結果也指出選擇台灣承銷商之台資企業，折價幅度顯著大於選擇其他承銷商之公司。 　　樣本經香港恆生指數調整後之三個月、六個月、九個月以及一年報酬率方面，全體樣本超額報酬之中位數於發行後三個月、六個月，一年以及發行後兩年與三年分別為-1.03%、-8.66%、4.88%、-2.28%以及-24.88%，顯示整體台資企業表現落後香港恆生指數。迴歸結果則顯示，發行規模較大的台資企業三個月、六個月、九個月以及一年報酬率顯著較高。

價量關係一直是投資人觀察股市最直接的工具之一，但如何選擇適當的交易量變數卻是另一個難題。混合分配假說(Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis, MDH)認為交易量足以成為替代市場訊息流入的變數，但普通交易量的資訊成分過於複雜，並不能完全反應重大私有訊息的流入市場，在解釋價量關係上便稍顯不足。因此本文利用異常交易量(surprise volume)取代普通交易量，做為新的交易量變數，再加上GARCH-M的時序模型架構，試著解釋台灣股票市場的報酬波動。 但本文從台灣市場的實證中發現，只有未經過自我相關、季節性調整的異常交易量變數，才能與報酬率波動呈現顯著的正相關，但此交易量變數並無法大幅的降低波動程度的持續性。另外，不對稱的報酬波動效果(槓桿效果)在台灣市場上相當顯著，說明了負面衝擊的效應對於報酬波動的影響會來的較大，但股票加權指數報酬並不具有風險溢酬的特性。

本文主要目的是在探討，當企業決定其融資方式，改變資本結構後，究竟是否會造成投資人對該企業經營獲利前景的改變，而反應在企業的股票價格上，尤其在「不同聯貸資金用途」上，是否會改變投資人、股東對於該企業風險程度的認定。本文利用事件研究法(Event Study Method)進行分析，研究期間自2005年至2007年止，針對台灣上市(櫃)公司完成聯貸簽約資料，刪除估計期未滿160天者後，有效樣本共140筆，其中營運週轉金(Working Capital)資金用途者有36筆；借新還舊(Refinancing)資金用途者有71筆；資本支出(Capital Expenditure)資金用途者有33筆。 本研究之實證結果發現，若資金用途為營運週轉金者，於聯合貸款宣告後，並沒有顯著異常報酬差異；若資金用途為借新還舊者，於聯合貸款宣告後，具有顯著的正向異常報酬差異；若資金用途為資本支出用途者，於聯合貸款宣告後，具有顯著負向異常報酬差異。 關鍵詞：聯合貸款、事件研究法、異常報酬 / The main purpose of this study is to discuss whether investors will change their anticipation on the perspective of a company, which is reflected on its stock price when the company decides on its financing method and thus changes its capital structure, and especially whether investors and shareholders will change their recognition on risk-taken levels of the company in light of different purposes of syndicated loans. This study employs Event Study Method and focuses on the listed and over-the-counter companies in Taiwan dated from Year 2005 through Year 2007. The valid sample size amounts to 140 companies after removing those companies whose estimation period is less than 160 days. Of the 140 sample companies, 36 are working capital related, 71 are refinancing related, and 33 are capital expenditure related. The empirical results of this study indicate that, upon announcement of syndicated loans, there are no significant positive abnormal returns if the loans are used as working capital, there are significant positive abnormal returns if the loans are used as refinancing, and there are significant negative abnormal returns if the loans are used as capital expenditure.

本研究運用相對評價法中之PBV(Price to Book Ratio)乘數，進行橫斷面 迴歸分析，判斷股價低估(undervalue)或高估(overvalue)，並利用判斷結果進行投資組合部位建立。選取樣本利用台灣50 指數成分股排除公司規模之影響，而研究結果顯示，利用PBV 低估的股票進行多部位建立，在研究期間 全期中，可以明顯超越市場報酬，但在空部位建立則無法超越市場報酬。 研究中並發現，極端值對績效造成影響，其因素為金控及銀行類股與景氣 循環股產業特性所致。 / This research applied the multiple of the price to book value in the relative valuation to begin cross-section regression analysis and to evaluate if the stock price was overpriced or underpriced. The result can be used to develop the investment portfolios. This research used the constituents in Taiwan 50 Index as samples in order to avoid the size effect. During the whole period, we found that we could gain excess profit obviously and defeat the market return by utilizing those stocks underpriced in PBV to develop the long position. However, we could not defeat the market return by developing the short position. In the research, we also found that the extreme value could affect the investment return, which result mainly from both stocks of financial holding companies and banks and stocks of business cycle industries.

本研究之主要目的是想了解當台灣之電子公司，在面臨到企業價值與銷售額比(EV/Sales)為近三年最低點時，如果採用EV/Sales 做為選股依據，持有一年或是二年，其超額報酬為何。是否有關鍵因子可以加強選股績效，資料分為樣本內(1995Q1 - 2002Q4) 和樣本外(2003Q1 - 2006Q4)。其實証結論如下: • 實證上於樣本外公司之中，若使用EV/Sales為選股依據，組成對沖投資組合，持有期間為一年，其平均超額報酬績效為51%。 • 實證上於樣本外公司之中，使用EV/Sales為選股依據組成對沖投資組合，持有期間為二年，其平均超額報酬績效為13%。若用關鍵因子加上EV/Sales為選股依據，持有期間為二年，其平均超額報酬績效大為32%，表示關鍵因子在投資期限較長之交易策略下，確實具有提升EV/Sales之選股能力。 • 本研究透過ANOVA檢定和相關性檢定，找出選股的關鍵因子，為投入資本報酬率，EBITDA利潤率，毛利率，以及營業利潤率。 / The purpose of this paper is to study the List high-tech Companies in Taiwan, when their EV/Sales ratio become the lowest in recent 3 years, whether if EV/Sales is a good tool to identify the companies are a super stock or not. Or, we should use other financial ratios as auxiliary tool to enhance the effective of screening tool, increasing the return of investment performance. The results are summary as below: • In the out-of-sample companies, if we use the EV/Sales as screening tool, the top 10% to composite as short portfolio, and bottom 10% to composite long portfolio, the holding period is one year; annualized abnormal return is 51%. • In the out-of-sample companies, if we use the EV/Sales as screening tool, the top 10% to composite as short portfolio, and bottom 10% to composite long portfolio, the holding period is two year, annualized return is 13%. If we add the auxiliary key financial ratios, the annualized abnormal return is 32%. • We use the ANOVA and correlation analysis, to identify the key financial ratios to enhanced investment return is Gross margin, EBITDA margin, operating margin, and ROIC.

過去文獻主要探討會計資訊於股票市場的影響, 少部分國外文獻研究盈餘於債券市場有用性之結果並不一致, 但國內並無相關研究。 本文研究2000年至2008年臺灣上市櫃公司的公司債公開發行市場, 以債券報酬率與債券交易量作為研究會計資訊有用性的度量(metrics), 實證結果證實盈餘發布後, 債券交易量確實增加, 但進一步的分析顯示, 控制不同公司特性與債券特性後, 當期盈餘水準與未預期盈餘皆無法有效地解釋債券報酬率與債券交易量, 對於會計盈餘在債券市場有用性的探討, 尚待未來進一步之研究。 / Prior studies regarding the effects of earnings have been primarily focused within the context of stock markets. The effects on bond markets have been studied considerably less; moreover, what little research that does exist is solely in foreign markets. Two metrics, returns and trading volume, are used to gauge the influence of earnings announcements for Taiwan corporate bonds between 2000 and 2008. Findings suggest that bond trading volume changes positively shortly following earnings announcements. However, after controlling firm and bond characteristics, unexpected earnings and current earnings level can not effectively explain the behavior in bond prices and volume. More research is needed to explain the informativeness of earnings in the corporate bond market.

無 / This paper investigates the long term performance of Taiwan stock market from 1967 to 2008. We obtain the total return of Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (“TAIEX”) by adjusting cash dividends. Prior to Dec 31st, 2008, the adjusted TAIEX (AdTAIEX) become 16,088.49 is 3.5 times than 4591.23, the TAIEX it reach. Based on annualized rate of return, AdTAIEX has 13.069% greater than 9.743% of TAIEX. Investors not only care about the rate of return of their portfolio, but the real purchasing power they have. Based on correction of inflation, AdTAIEX only has 8.25% annually, with 4.819% erosion by inflation. TAIEX only has 5.07% annually, with 4.673% erosion by inflation. Also, we create a timing strategy according to the varying of past variance that may help “buy and hold”strategy.

本研究欲探討國家商品貿易特性在匯率報酬評價中扮演的角色，決定匯率報酬的因素非常多，包含利率、市場波動、國際貿易及國家政治等非常廣泛的因素，而國家商品貿易特性也會是影響匯率報酬評價的可能因素之一。本研究以「進口比率」(Import Ratios) 衡量國家的商品貿易特性，也以該數值建構投資組合。研究結果發現，去除商品貿易特性特殊之國家後，進口比例(Import Ratio)越高之投資組合，其遠期外匯貼水也偏高，且外匯超額報酬也隨之遞增。 在Ready, Roussanov, and Ward(2013)論文中認為，國家的商品貿易特性是造成不同國家利率高低差異的原因，所以該作者認為國家商品貿易特性極有可能是利差交易背後的原因。然而，本研究的Fama-Macbeth 兩步驟橫斷面迴歸實證結果發現，國家的商品貿易特性確實是造成國家利率差異的因素之一，但利差交易背後的風險背後的因素，雖然包含國家商品貿易因素，但仍包含其他因素，且商品貿易因子(IMX)無法取代利差交易因子(HML)在外匯超額報酬評價模型中的角色。 此外，本研究亦嘗試在Lustig所提出之市場因子(RX)和利差交易因子(HML)的兩因子模型中，再額外加入商品貿易因子(IMX)，構成匯率評價的三因子模型，但研究結果發現不論是在遠期外匯貼水投資組合或商品貿易投資組合中，三因子模型都沒有優於兩因子模型。 / There are many factors in determinant of exchange rate returns, such as interest rates, market volatility, international trade and politics. The purpose of this research is considering commodity trade in the pricing model of excess return of currency market. This research use “Import Ratios” to measure the characteristic of different countries’ commodity trade. We use import ratios to construct “Import Ratio Sort Portfolio”. After removing the countries which commodity trade characteristics are special, we could see when import ratios is higher, the forward discount and exchange rate return are also higher in import ratio sort portfolio. Ready, Roussanov, and Ward(2013) thought the commodity trade is the reason that cause interest rate differences between countries. In this research, the result of Fama-Macbeth two-step regression show that commodity trade is one of the reasons that cause interest rate differences. It means that there are other risks behind carry trade. In the pricing model of excess return of currency market, HML factor can’t be replaced by IMX factor. We also try to construct three-factor model, which consider excess return, carry trade, and commodity trade simultaneously. But the result shows that three-factor model can not have better explanatory power than Lustig, Roussanov, and Verdelhan(2011)’s two-factor model.

本篇論文探討在台灣獨有的先申報後轉讓的內部人交易制度下，到底內部人申報轉讓後之執行率公布對一般大眾的影響為何呢？內部人申報轉讓後，有可能實際轉讓，也可能不轉讓或不足額轉讓，端視內部人的策略。我們把焦點放在內部人申報轉讓持股後，當市場公布執行結果後，個股交易量的表現為何。結果發現異常交易量因執行率公布後獲知內部人之淨買淨賣行為而有所增加；但內部人無淨買賣時,交易量無明顯異常。