二十一世紀，水資源問題已經成為國際社會共同關注的焦點。它不僅關係到地球生態系統的維繫和人類社會的可持續發展，還對當代國際關係產生廣泛深遠的影響。尤其是水資源匱乏地區，水資源問題已成為影響該地區國家間關係的重要因素，甚至對地區的和平與發展穩定構成威脅。 受地理因素影響，中亞地區的水資源多為跨境水體，造成了該地區水資源開發主體的多樣性。各國對水資源長期不合理的開發利用，產生了一系列的浪費及污染問題，引發了許多國際爭端。為此，中亞各國簽訂一系列雙邊、多邊協議，試圖通過國際合作來解決跨境水資源問題，然而卻無法形成一個長期有效的合作機制。圍繞國際水資源的利用、開發、管理而產生的爭端依然困擾著中亞。 本文首先是闡述中亞水資源概況及開發歷程，探索中亞水資源問題產生的根源。其次，從中亞各國之間採取的政策互動入手，分析探討中亞在國際水資源開發中的「合作困境」。最後借鑒國際跨境水資源利用現狀與趨勢，分析構建有助於目標實現的制度安排，從而提出中亞國際水資源合作的解決途徑。通過構建切實發揮效能的區域水資源合作機制，推動中亞各國內部實現更好發展，同時促進整個中亞及鄰國、周邊地區的穩定發展。 / In the 21st century, the issue of water resources has become the focus of common concern of the international community. It is not only related to the maintenance of the earth's ecosystem and the sustainable development of human society, but also has a far-reaching impact on contemporary international relations. Especially in water-scarce areas, water resources has become an important factor affecting relations among countries in the region, and even poses a threat to regional peace and development and stability. Due to geographical factors, water resources in Central Asia are mostly transboundary water bodies, resulting in the diversification of water resources development in the region. The unreasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources in a long period of time has brought about a series of waste and pollution problems, which has caused many international disputes. To this end, the Central Asian countries signed a series of bilateral and multilateral agreements, trying to solve international water resources through cross-border issues, but can not form a long-term effective cooperation mechanism. Disputes over the use, development and management of international water resources continue to haunt Central Asia. This paper firstly elaborates the general situation and development process of water resources in Central Asia, and explores the root causes of water resources problems in Central Asia. Secondly, this paper analyzes the interaction dilemma of Central Asia in international water resources development from the policy interaction among the countries of Central Asia. Finally, it draws lessons from the current situation and trend of international transboundary water resources utilization, analyzes and constructs the institutional arrangements that will help the target to achieve, and then proposes the solutions to the international water resources cooperation in Central Asia. Through the construction of effective regional water resources cooperation mechanism, it can promote better development within the Central Asian countries, and stimulate the stable development of the whole Central Asia, the neighboring countries and even the surrounding areas.

在後冷戰時期，由於國際氛圍的改變以及全球化的影響，國家間互動密切，國際關係學者與政策制定者關心的議題逐漸從軍事層面慢慢轉向非軍事的面，因此所謂的非傳統安全也逐漸受到重視。國家開始注意到其他許多問題，諸如環保、移民、國際走私等問題，也發現這些問題影響的範圍及層面其實相當的廣泛，這些問題使得國內局面動盪不安，也跟著影響了國家安全，而一些跨國界的問題，例如環保問題，由於人類對環境的過度使用及破壞，一方面使得國家社會經濟層面受到影響，一方面國家之間為了爭奪這些珍貴資源，將無可避免地發生衝突。 本研究探討了非傳統安全中一個分類議題---環境安全，而資源安全也包括在其中。關於環境問題是否為安全議題的一環，引起了無數爭論，不過目前對於環境問題是安全的一環，學界已有一個大致上的共識。水資源安全是環境安全概念下引申出來的分支，對於水資源的爭奪，是衝突的潛在引爆點。 水是人類生存的必需品，在二十一世紀，水更是一切發展的關鍵，關係著國民的健康，國民健康關係著國力，水也和工業、農業發展息息相關。因此水不只是一個環境問題或是經濟問題，水更和國家安全緊密相連。且新鮮水資源沒有替代品，由於人口成長和氣候變遷的影響，未來新鮮水資源將會更難取得。 在世界上的許多地區都把獲得水源視為國家安全的一部份，不惜為水一戰，特別是對於國際河川之爭奪，對乾旱地區的國家來說，水資源問題是會影響到國家生存和發展的戰略問題，特別是那些用水特別緊張的地區，為水而起的衝突一觸即發。本研究以非洲尼羅河流域為例，檢視水資源問題是否為國家安全的一部分，以及爭奪水資源是否會成為戰爭的引爆點。 由於沒有一個國家可以獨占水資源，國家間在水的議題上必須共同合作，探討出一個大家共同接受的管理模式，各國在水資源使用上才能達到最大的效益。

水資源是人類生存及文明延續關鍵，雖然海洋佔有地球表面積約百分之七十，但可直接供應人類生養淡水卻極為有限。隨著世界人口持續增長、工商業發展迅速，全球水資源需求量不斷攀升，加以時空分配不均、氣候變遷等因素，引發旱澇災情加劇，進而威脅民生用水、農漁糧食、疾病衛生、社區遷徙及能源供應等安全，導致國家政經社會動盪，尤其是人口密集的亞洲地區多屬開發中國家，仰賴水資源獲取足夠糧食及經濟發展所需能源，再者，亞洲地區數條重要江河跨越數個國家地域，連接維繫流域內國家命脈及利益，惟各國對於國際河流治理政策及目標卻存在紛歧差異性而屢生爭議、矛盾，因此，國際河流所涉及水資源問題具有重要性及複雜性，若未能妥適紓解，則可能引發國際衝突而危及國家安全。 2009年中國水資源最豐沛的西南地區連續乾旱，中國為紓解水資源匱乏的嚴重性及急迫性，積極修建水壩以維繫水資源安全，卻引發與下游國家間跨境水資源衝突，中國在面臨境內水資源短缺危機，以及與鄰國共用治理國際河流二者衝突，都是當今非傳統安全領域的重要課題。湄公河是亞洲地區重要國際水系，流域遍及中國、寮國、緬甸、泰國、柬埔寨及越南等六個國家，富含水力動能及自然資源，然而，流域內各國政經體制、民族文化差異極大，對於水電開發、航道通商、農漁發展及生態維護各有主張而扞格爭嚷互見，衝突並不意味毫無合作契機，本文認為中國兼具地理及政經大國的優勢地位，水資源政策及執行往往引發鄰國諸多猜忌不安，又國際河流開發使用及管理約制，常事涉國家主權讓渡而難獲共識，但藉由水資源多層次規劃開發及協商管理，不僅能維護中國利益安全，同時，伴隨水電、航運建設所帶來鉅大經濟利益，也提供諸國亟欲脫貧的契機，進而促進地區安全。 / Water is indispensable to human life and civilization. We all know that the earth surface is composed of sea water by nearly 70%, but what we don’t know is freshwater on the rest 30% of the world is limited for human usage. With continuously rising population and rapid growth in economy, people’s demands for water is getting more and more intensive than that decades ago. Drought and flood damage caused by climate change affect water supply, agriculture and food safety, diseases and hygiene, even threaten national security in each country. Densely populated countries in Asia depend on water heavily for economic development, but major rivers running through those nation borders and territories complicate their political and diplomatic relations. Conflicts resulted from water resource management and national interests follow suit, which may escalate tension if not been dealt properly. In 2009, China’s southwest region was severely hit by droughts. Dams were needed for relieving the water shortage problem, but the construction in major rivers triggered China’s conflicts with countries in the downstream territories due to water resource distribution. Among these disputes, Mekong River, an international river flowing through China, Liao, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam stood out. Each related nation has its own political considerations and economic plans with this river, and their exploitation policies were diverse. Seeing crisis of water shortage at home and conflicts resulted from water management with its neighbors outside, China was in a dilemma. However, contentions could create opportunities for cooperation. This paper tries to find the answer. It suggests that since China holds a geopolitical significance and economic dominance in the southwestern part of Asia, it can maintain its own security and interests by coming up comprehensive water exploitation policies and seek bilateral and multilateral water resource management with neighboring countries simultaneously, so as to bring in huge benefits on the one hand and acts as a responsible stakeholder in the area in promoting peace solution and stability on the other hand.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第18488号 / 地環博第122号 / 新制||地環||25(附属図書館) / 31366 / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)准教授 森 晶寿, 教授 宇佐美 誠, 准教授 吉野 章 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM