第一章：緒論；第一節為研究動機與目的，二節為研究方法與限制，第三節為論文結 構。 第二章：人力資源規劃對當今會計師事務所之重要性；第一節今日會計師事務所之規 模，第二節為會計師業務之多樣化，第三節為審計準則之限制，第四節為人力資源規 劃模式之應用，第五節為管理科學之興起，第六節為本章結論。 第三章：會計師事務所的人力資源規劃──以線性規劃模式分析；第一節為線性規劃 模式之功能，第二節為運用線性規劃模式以探討會計師事務所人力資源規劃所必須要 考慮的因素，第三節為模式中各符號的說明，第四節為線性規劃模式的建立及說明， 第五節為模式中無形利益的再探討，第六節為實例說明。 第四章：會計師事務所的人力資源規劃──以目標規劃模式分析；第一節為目標規劃 分析法之研究，第二節為會計師事務所目標規劃模式之資料，第三節為目標規模式之 建立，第四節為模式之解答。 第五章：會計師事務所的職員績效評估；第一節為會計師事務所人事管理控制，第二 節為學習理論之 。第三節為職員之績效評估，第四節為本章結論。 第六章：結論與建議。

本篇論文主旨在研討如何將梯度之觀念應用於線性規劃問題，以及所發展出來之解題 方法，內容約三萬字，計一冊，分章，各章名稱及概要如下： 第一章－－梯度：介紹梯度之定義以及幾何意義。 第二章－－以梯度求起算解：將梯度之觀念導入線性規劃問題，並發展以梯度觀念求 得起解之方法。 第三章－－求最佳解：介紹如何用克利斯－－克洛斯法將起算解轉換成最佳解。 第四章－－與單體法之比較：比較此法與單體法之優劣差異。 第五章－－專論二個變數之問題：討論此法在只有二個變數之線性規劃問題時，如何 更能發揮特點。 第六章－－電腦程式：介紹此法之電腦程式及例題。

第一章 導論。說明論文的研究目的，研究方法範圍限制及論文架構。 第二章 介紹整體生產規劃的基本觀念以及它與企業內其他管理決策的關係。 第三章 探討整體生產規劃的四個模式；線性規劃，線性決策規則，管理係數法和參 數生產規劃。最後總結說明為何使用搜索法。 第四章 介紹搜索法的基本觀念，程式系統，以及搜索副程式的流程與邏輯。最後總 結搜索法的優缺點。 第五章 介紹本篇論文的實證工廠，產品特性，產業趨勢，組織結構，作業流程。 第六章 由實證資料推導出工廠的成本函數。成本包括了正常工資，加班成本，存貨 成本和僱用成本。 第七章 先以搜索法求出整體生產規劃決策和工廠實際決策比較，再預測今年的銷售 量，求出搜索法的決策。 第八章 結論與建議。

本文提出一個新的混合整數線性規劃模型建立投資組合。這個模型所採用的風險函數為最大損失的絕對值，而不是一般常用的損失變異數。在給定的報酬水準下，模型尋找在觀測期間中最小的最大損失的投資組合，即為大中取小的原則。模型也同時考慮實務上常遇見之情況，如：交易成本、最小交易單位、固定交易費用比率、資產總類數等限制。因此，模型內需使用整數變數及二元變數，導致模型的計算求解過程變得比不含整數變數及二元變數的模型困難許多。我們以固定整數變數的啟發式演算法增進求解的效率，並以台灣股票市場的資料做為實證計算的對象。 / A new mixed integer linear program (MILP) for selecting portfolio based on historical return is proposed. This model uses the downside risk rather than the variance as a risk measure. The portfolio is chosen that minimizes the maximum downside risk over all past observation periods to reach a given return level. That is a mini-max principle. The model incorporates the practical characteristics such as transaction costs, minimum transaction units, fixed proportional transaction rates, and cardinality constraint. For this reason a set of integer variables and binary variables are introduced. The introduction, however, increases the computational complexity in model solution. Due to the difficulty of the MILP problem, a heuristic algorithm has been developed for the solution. The computational results are presented by applying the model to the Taiwan stock market.

投資者面對到期日相同的一序列不同履約價格的選擇權時，應如何建立最佳的組合交易策略，這個問題雖已有許多標準的交易公式可依循，但這些標準的交易策略無法全面涵蓋複雜多變的組合策略。本論文提出整數線性規劃模型用來建立選擇權的最佳交易策略。模型針對到期日相同的買權、賣權如何買賣的組合，建立最佳交易策略。若我們預期在到期日時，標的股價將會落在某一範圍內，則我們可修改原來的規劃模型配合此項預期，以尋求最佳的交易策略。最後，我們以Ericsson的選擇權為例，驗証本模型的效能。 / The problem of how to construct the optimal combination trading strategy for investors when they face a series of options of different exercise prices on the same maturity date can be solved by many standard trading rules. Yet these standard trading rules cannot completely cover the complex and highly changeable combination strategy. This thesis proposes an integer linear programming (ILP) model to construct the optimal trading strategy for option portfolio selection. This model focuses on constructing the optimal strategy for an option portfolio of call- and put-options on the same maturity date. Given the investor's belief of the stock price, we also provide an extended ILP model to include this belief. Finally, an empirical study will be presented by using the ILP model applied to the Ericsson's call and put options.

在全球化的環境下推出新產品，企業除了面臨隨著產品生命週期改變的顧客需求以及成本上的不確定因素外，同時還必須考量全球營運帶來的種種挑戰。 許多供應鏈管理數量模式相關文獻針對全球運籌、新產品供應鏈等議題多有所探討，利用數量模式的計算以反應真實世界中的種種不確定性，讓管理者在供應鏈策略規劃時有所依據，但卻少有同時探討全球運籌以及新產品供應鏈的相關文獻。學者Butler, Ammons, and Sokol認為過去新產品供應鏈模式忽略了新產品將有可能無法存活下來的情形，因此發展一套新產品供應鏈模式，使新產品供應鏈能夠順利從上市成長到成熟階段，並利用此模式決定新設施、新機器購入的時機。 本研究延伸Butler等人之新產品供應鏈模式，考量更完整之全球運籌相關議題，透過混合整數線性規劃描述新產品發展時全球運籌配置問題，並利用情境為基礎的穩健最佳化以取得低風險的供應鏈配置，此外加入可靠度的影響，以彌補供應鏈規劃與實際操作的差距，並加入缺貨之懲罰成本，最後以範例資料進行計算與分析此數量模式，經由模式計算結果發現本研究規劃之結果，相較於原Butler等人之模式有較低的缺貨的發生可能性，且所求得之配置整體可靠度皆有所提升。 本研究所提出之規劃與分析方法可提供決策者在進行新產品全球佈局規劃時，能當作其新產品運籌配置之決策參考。 / When putting out new products under the environment of globalization, enterprise not only faces the uncertain factors in the demand of the customers and the costs that change with product life cycles, but considers all sorts of challenges which come with global operation. Many researches into supply chain quantitative model that probe into global logistics and the new product supply chain employ the quantitative model to reflect all sorts of uncertainty in the real world. They provide managers with the basis for the supply chain strategy and management. But few researches discuss about the global logistics and the new product supply chain simultaneously. Bulter, Ammons, and Sokol argue that the model of new product supply chain of the past neglects the condition which new products may not survive. Thus they developed a new product supply chain model to enable new products to launch the market and grow to maturity as well as decide when to purchase new supply chain facilities and equipments. This research which extends the new product supply chain model of Bulter et al. considers issues on global logistics from a more integrated view. First of all, it solves the global logistic settings problem in new product development by means of mixed-integer linear programming. Secondly, it uses the scenario-based robust optimization to lower the risk in the supply chain design. Then it adds the reliability calculation to make up for the gap between the plan and the real operation. At last it calculates and analyzes the quantitative model on the basis of the case data. This research establishes a methodology for decision makers to apply to plan and analyzing their new product supply chain when they make the global arrangement of new products.

指數型基金透過追蹤指數來提供投資人被動管理的投資策略，因而成為保守投資人的熱門投資工具。本論文的目的在於建立一個追蹤指數的同時也能有效控管損失的指數型基金。在此目標下，該基金面臨到的不單是追蹤指數的績效，還有降低資產配置風險的問題。有鑑於此，本論文融合兩種下方風險的概念：指數追蹤的下方偏差(downside absolute deviation)以及條件風險值(conditional value-at-risk, CVaR)。針對兩者間的規避程度分別分配其權重，並以該基金之平均報酬大於指數的平均報酬作為限制條件，經由改寫下方偏差與離散化CVaR後得到一個新的線性規劃模型。本論文以台灣50指數與恆生指數的歷史資料做為實證探討的對象，驗證使用本線性規劃模型所建立之指數型基金的效能。 / Index fund has become popular in these days among the conservative investors since it provides a passive investment strategy. The main purpose of this paper is to create an index fund which can replicate the performance of a broad-based index of stocks and has the ability to control the loss efficiently at the same time. For this purpose, the index fund we build confronts with not only the performance of index tracking, but also lowering the level of the risk of assets allocation. In order to accomplish the goal, we combine two concepts of downside risk: downside absolute deviation and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). Under the constraint of average portfolio return being greater than average index return, and assign weights according to the degree of evasion to each of the risks, a linear programming model is formulated by rewriting downside absolute deviation and discretizing CVaR. The results obtained from the computational experience on Taiwan 50 index and Hang Seng index are provided for testing the efficiency of this model.

本論文提出利用機率平賭性質由選擇權市場價格還原風險中立機率測度的雙目標規劃模型。假設對應同一標的資產且不同履約價的選擇權均為歐式選擇權，到期時標的資產的狀態為離散點且個數有限。若市場不存在套利機會時，建構出最小化離差總和及最大化平滑的雙目標規劃模型。將此雙目標規劃模型利用權重法轉換成單一目標之非線性模型，即可還原風險中立機率測度，並利用此風險中立機率測度評價選擇權的公平價格。最後，我們以台指選擇權(TXO)為例，驗證此模型的評價能力。 / This thesis proposes a biobjective nonlinear programming model to derive risk-neutral probability distribution of underlying asset. The method are used to choose probabilities that minimize the deviation between the observed price and the theoretical price as well as maximize the smoothness of the resulting probabilities. A weighting method is used to covert the model into a single objective model. Given a non-arbitrage observed option price, a risk-neutral probability distribution consistent with the observed option can be recovered by the model. This risk-neutral probability is then utilized to evaluate the fair price of options. Finally, an empirical study applying to Taiwan’s market is given to verify the pricing ability of this model.

投資者面對到期日相同的ㄧ序列不同履約價格的選擇權，已有許多文獻提出如何建立選擇權最佳投資組合，但模型中均未考慮交易成本。選擇權在實際市場的交易過程中，投資者所支付的手續費與賦稅即為選擇權的交易成本。本論文針對買賣到期日相同但不同履約價格的買權與賣權如何組合，提出考慮交易成本的整數線性規劃模型，建立選擇權最佳交易策略。我們不考慮股價變動的機率分配型態，延伸楊靜宜 (2004)所建立之整數線性規劃模型和Liu與Liu (2006)的大中取小模型，建構考慮比例制、固定制與混合制交易成本之整數線性規劃模型。最後，我們以台指選擇權(TXO)為例，驗證模型的效能。 關鍵字：交易成本，選擇權交易策略，整數線性規劃，選擇權套利機會。 / There are many researchers focus on constructing the optimal strategies and propose integer linear programming (ILP) for a series of options which are on the same maturity date with different strike price, but they neglect transaction costs in their models. The transaction costs of options are the handling charge and taxes which investors should pay for trading in the market. The thesis proposes an ILP with transaction costs to construct the optimal strategy for an option portfolio of call- and put- options on the same maturity date with different strike price. We leave the distribution of the variety of stock price out of consideration and extend Yang’s (2004) model and Liu & Liu’s (2006) min-max regret model to construct ILP with proportional, fixed, and mixed transaction costs. Finally, we take the trading data of TXO as an empirical study to test and verify the efficiency of our models. Key words: transaction costs, option trading strategies, integer linear programming, option arbitrage opportunities.

本論文研究如何由觀測的選擇權市場價格還原風險中立機率測度（等價平賭測度）。首先建構選擇權投資組合的套利模型，其中假設選擇權為單期，到期日時的狀態為離散點且個數有限，並且對應同一標的資產且不同履約價格。若市場不存在套利機會時，可使用拉格朗日乘數法則將選擇權套利模型導出拉格朗日乘子的可行性問題。將可行性問題作為限制式重新建構線性規劃模型以還原風險中立機率測度，並且利用此風險中立機率測度評價選擇權的公正價格。最後，我們以台指選擇權（TXO）為例，驗證此模型的評價能力。 / This thesis investigates how to recover the risk-neutral probability (equivalent martingale measure) from observed market prices of options. It starts with building an arbitrage model of options portfolio in which the options are assumed to be in one-period time, finite discrete-states, and corresponding to the same underlying asset with different strike prices. If there is no arbitrage opportunity in the market, we can use Lagrangian multiplier method to obtain a Lagrangian multiplier feasibility problem from the arbitrage model. We employ the feasibility problem as the constraints to construct a linear programming model to recover the risk-neutral probability, and utilize this risk-neutral probability to evaluate the fair price of options. Finally, we take TXO as an example to verify the pricing ability of this model.