本論文以德國威瑪共和（Weimarer Republik, 1918-1933）為時代框架，從「跨藝術互文性」（interart intertextuality）觀點出發，探討納博科夫（В. Набоков, 1899-1977）如何將繪畫、音樂與電影元素置入文本，進而發展小說中有如電影般的視聽意象。 第一章以宏觀角度探討威瑪文化的跨藝術性，從中討論1920年代「俄羅斯柏林」（русский Берлин）與納博科夫的關聯性；第二章從繪畫、舞台及電影角度看待納氏文字中的畫面建構；第三章分析首部短篇小說集《喬布的歸來》（Возвращение Чорба, 1929）的視聽表現；第四章運用電影語言剖析長篇小說《國王，皇后，傑克》（Король Дама Валет, 1928）蘊含的電影畫面意象；結論從時代環境與納博科夫的書寫風格歸結出作家的「跨藝術」詩學。

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Chinese

University of Macau / Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities / Department of Chinese

University of Macau / Faculty of Education

本文採用新的隨機共同邊界方法，將其擴充至Fourier富伸縮成本函數，針對西歐地區十個國家的銀行業進行成本效率之分析，資料期間涵蓋1996年至2010年。不同於Battese et al. (2004), O’Donnell et al. (2008), and Huang et al. (2011a) 等人利用線性規劃法，本文應用隨機共同邊界法來估計技術缺口比率，進而做跨國間的效率比較，此法的特點在於技術缺口比率可以設為一些反映國家環境差異的外生變數之函數，而線性規劃法則無法做此設定。實證結果顯示採用線性規劃方法所估計出的技術缺口比率與共同成本效率會有低估的現象，技術缺口比率以及共同成本效率在1996年至2000年間逐步上升，此結果支持金融市場的整合可以增進效率，然而，到2000年之後則反轉向下，特別是在2007年至2010年次級房貸風暴時期明顯惡化。此外，進一步的分群進行分析的結果顯示，小規模、高獲利、或是較保守的銀行相對來說較具有效率。 / This paper aims to gain further insights into cost efficiency using the newly developed metafrontier approach under the framework of the Fourier flexible cost frontier for banking industries across 10 Western European nations during the period 1996-2010. Unlike Battese et al. (2004), O’Donnell et al. (2008), and Huang et al. (2011a), who suggest using programming techniques, the stochastic metafrontier is formulated and applied to obtain the technology gap ratio (TGR) for efficiency comparisons among countries. One salient feature of our method is that the TGR can be specified as a function of some exogenous variables that reflect group-specific environmental differences, while the mathematical programming is not allowed to do so. Empirical results show that both TGR and metafrontier cost efficiency (MCE) are underestimated by programming techniques. The TGR and MCE exhibit a gradual upward trend during 1996-2000 and then followed by a downward trend, especially after the subprime crisis of 2007-2010. This suggests that a more integrated financial market is able to improve banking efficiency. Smaller banks tend to be more cost efficient than larger ones. Higher profitable banks and more conservative banks are related to greater efficiency.

由於技術分析之有效性一直為學者們所探討且備具爭議的議題，有部分學者認為技術分析無效，但實務上，技術分析在金融市場上的應用卻相當廣泛；此外，由於外匯市場為交易量龐大且眾多學者研究之重要金融市場，故本文回顧過去多項國內、外研究，並經由實地探訪台灣外匯市場上之投資人，針對仍未被研究，但實務上所採用之技術指標進行多項交易策略之模擬並探討其獲利性。 本文主要針對新臺幣兌換美元之匯市，探究將商品通道指標(Commodity Channel Indexes)及威廉指標(Williams Overbought/ Oversold Index)兩種技術分析指標應用於此外匯市場上之獲利情形，採用1993年1月1日至2012年12月28日，共計二十年，5279筆銀行間交易之新台幣兌美元之匯率日間資料，擷取其最高價、最低價及收盤價並透過程式交易進行回溯測試，並針對此兩種技術指標建構多種交易策略，歸納並分析其中可獲得超額報酬之技術策略，期能找出獲得最佳投資報酬以及提高交易的成功機率與獲利能力之法則。 藉由Matlab運算處理後，將此兩種技術指標應用於過去20年之歷史價格進行回溯測試，本實證研究發現：1. 採用威廉指標之策略普遍績效都較採用商品通道指標來的好，不僅在總報酬率的表現上比較好，採用威廉指標所執行的交易獲利的機率也必較高。2. 由於此兩技術指標應用在新台幣兌美元之外匯市場上可得的績效高於買賣策略應用於此市場之平均年化報酬率，故證實此兩種技術指標應用在新台幣兌美元的外匯市場上，均可獲得超額報酬，此兩技術指標在新台幣兌美元市場是有效的、可獲利的。 / It has long been a controversial question to scholars whether or not technical analysis is efficient. Although some scholars believe technical analysis is useless, it has been broadly used in the financial markets for a long time. As foreign exchange markets are one of the most important financial markets with huge trading volume in the world, this paper reviews many past literature and extracts trading strategies from some real investors in Taiwan’s foreign exchange markets. Additionally, this paper focuses on testing the trading performance of applying the technical indexes which have not been researched in the academic field but have often been utilized in the real exchange markets. This thesis mainly concentrates on the exchange market of New Taiwan Dollar against US dollar and examines the trading performance of utilizing two technical indexes which have been used but not been researched in foreign exchange markets : Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Williams Overbought/Oversold Index (WMS). The dataset of this paper is from January 1st, 1993 to December 28th, 2012, an overall of 20 years and 5279 times of daily NTD/USD exchange rates between banks. To complete the back-testing, this research utilizes the highest, lowest and close price from those materials and analyzes the technical strategies which obtain excess profits. By generalizing the results of those trading strategies, investors can find the best trading rules and increase the returns from applying these two technical indexes to foreign exchange market. The results of this research are as follows: 1. WMS’s performances are chiefly superior to the CCI’s performances. Not only the total profit rates of technical strategies from WMS are higher than the total profit rates of trading rules from CCI, but also the rates of profits on WMS always demonstrate a better result than the rates of profits on CCI. 2. Both of these two technical indicators can produce excess profits. Compared to the average annual return of buy-and-hold strategy in this market, both of the two technical indexes conduct a better performance. As a result, these two technical indexes are effective in NTD/USD market.

電信服務日新月異，電信技術與標準推陳出新，在眾多技術與標準中，選擇一種可以獲得用戶支持，並且滿足潛在市場需求的技術標準，在世代交替與技術標準轉換之際，選擇適合的技術標準，以建構用戶基礎與技術優勢，將是投資龐大之電信公司營運成功與否的關鍵因素。 過去曾經風光的封閉型電信標準，如日本的NTT DoCoMo的PDC與其iMode標準，終究因為不能滿足新的競爭與市場需求，並且電信服務價值鏈日漸繁複的趨勢，終就還是走入歷史；近年封閉與非主流的低功率行動電話PHS標準被中國與其他國家捨棄，目前唯一經營PHS的日本Willcom電信公司與台灣的A公司也都紛紛進入財務重整，全球PHS用戶曾經達到一億之盛況，卻因為中國大陸的電信政策影響，讓曾經風光，俗稱小靈通的PHS因此消失。 PDC和PHS都是被認為是曾經領先當代的封閉型技術標準，也都是日本電信公司自主研發的先進行動通信技術，但是NTT DoCoMo只經營了三年PHS，即終止PHS服務，而Willcom電信公司(DDI Pocket前身)則選擇持續發展PHS技術；曾經封閉的PHS技術領先其他電信標準，最後卻遭到淘汰；對照蘋果公司的iOS作業系統與iTunes服務，一樣是封閉型系統，Apple卻仍是屹立不搖；未來是否可以持續保持，封閉型的標準是否可以成功，擁有廣大市場，主導整個服務鏈，頗值得深入探討。 全球各國對於電信技術與標準的管理，已逐漸採行技術中立的政策，對於技術與標準的選擇，政府政策因素的影響對企業選擇標準因素限制，已逐漸降低；本研究將以台灣A公司經營PHS為例，對照中國與日本的PHS電信業者，探討與分析電信公司選擇封閉型、非主流電信標準之成功可行性。 / Telecommunication Services have been changed rapidly recently; technologies and standards are also replaced to next generation every few years period. There are technology standards; right selection of standard is to fulfill requirements and obtain market is important. There were successful closed type telecom standards, like PDC of NTT DoCoMo in the 2G era. But finally it had been replaced by 3G, its next generation technology. The standard of telecom trend is toward an open type telecom standard. It is due to the complication of value chain of telecom services and global interfaces requirements. The closed type of technology standard is gradually abandoned. The PHS technology has been developed and adopted by leading technology telecom service provider, Willcom Japan, Telecom Company A in Taiwan announced PHS to be upgraded to XGP for a 100Mbps high speed mobile data network to compete with dominant and worldwide adopted a 4 G LTE mobile standard. But both companies went bankruptcy recently. The subscribers of PHS had been reached to his peak at 100 millions, the government policy has caused PHS in China clear away in a day. PDC and PHS are all considered as closed type technology standards. They were all invented by Japanese Telecom Operators. NTT had been operated and provided PHS service only for 3 years. The PHS leading operator, Willcom (previously DDI Pocket) is all the way providing services with PHS upgraded technology. But The Company is still facing financial difficulty and numbers of subscribers decreased dramatically. In Comparison with Apple Inc. who developed the closed type iOS and iTunes standards, are still leading mobile handset and applications markets. Apple’s service and product now become market dominant. Will Apple’s closed technologies maintenance for future successful? It is worth to be studied and look into details and referred with the PHS technology development as closed type standards. The natural to technology and standard is a trend globally from the government management policy. The governing policy has less effect on the technology and standard selection. The study is based on the case of A company using PHS technology to analyze Selection of close type standard or non dominant telecom standard will it be possible to be successful ? Willcom has announced to adopt XGP, the next generation PHS technology. Can we foresee the failure or it will arise from the dead? The study based on literature and cases analysis to analyze telecommunication, especially mobile communications operators. Successful factors of selection Telecommunication standards based on telecom service value chains, technology dependence, advantages and disadvantages of closed and open type’s standards. The thesis hopes to answer why A company’s failure and recommendation of successful factors when selection a closed type technology standard. The thesis is also to analyze the failure of A company in selection PHS technology which is closed type and reference of literature and other thesis to see the technology standard trend and hope to provide valuable reference for Telecommunication operators or related service providers in the future.

本文主要針對台幣兌換美元的匯價，採用移動平均法則給定的交易訊號模擬交易，透過模擬交易得到顯著異於零的超額報酬，試著利用條件資本資產定價模型解釋超額報酬與風險之間的關係。實證結果顯示：在傳統資本資產定價模型下，超額報酬無法透過承擔風險所獲得風險貼水來解釋，但加入金融危機事件的影響後，發現在金融危機期間，市場風險係數下降，異常報酬增加，表示在此期間，即使市場大盤表現不佳，技術分析仍能成功捕捉台幣兌換美元的匯價變動趨勢，使金融危機期間的技術交易報酬平均高於金融危機前後。

(物理療法,専門領域研究会分科会主題口述発表,理学療法の可能性,第41回日本理学療法学術大会)

(骨・関節系理学療法39, 第42回日本理学療法学術大会)