本研究主要目的在探討2010年台北市長大選，台北市女性選民個人社會背景特徵、投票取向因素及投票行為，並分析影響台北市女性選民投票行為的最重要因素。 本研究採用二手資料分析法，資料係採自2009年至2012年「台灣選舉與民主化調查」三年期研究規劃（2/3）：民國九十九年直轄市市長選舉面訪案(TEDS 2010C): NSC 99-2420-H-031-002，使用次數分配（Frequencies）、卡方檢定（Chi-square test）、t檢定（t-test）及變異數分析（Analysis of variance, ANOVA）及洛基迴歸模型（Logistic Regression Model）等統計方法分析資料並詮釋之。 經統計分析後主要研究發現： 一、本研究發現台北市選民在政治知識、政黨認同、候選人評價、所重視議題誰最能代表、市長施政滿意度等投票取向上，女性與男性選民有差異性。但在投票抉擇上，男女都是投給郝龍斌最多，只是比例上有差異；而政黨認同及候選人評價差距等二項變項，皆為影響台北市女性選民及男性選民投票行為的主要因素。 二、就全體受訪台北市女性選民而言，本研究所提出的省籍、收入、族群認同、政黨認同、候選人評價差距、候選人情感溫度計、所重視議題誰最能代表、整體市長施政滿意度及綜合各項施政滿意度等變項，個別單獨與投票行為進行分析均達統計上的顯著關聯性，可見上述變項皆有可能影響台北市女性選民的投票行為。將諸多變項一同納入模型比較其相對影響力時，發現「政黨認同」及「候選人評價差距」等二項變項最具影響力。 三、台北市女性選民的省籍、收入、族群認同等人口學的變項，個別與其投票行為均有顯著的關聯性，但經與其他社會心理學的變項，例如政黨認同、候選人評價等，以洛基迴歸模型進行相對影響力分析，發現這些變項顯然不如社會心理學的變項來得有顯著性。因此，密西根學派所提出的社會心理學研究途徑，相較於哥倫比亞學派所提出的社會學研究途徑，對台北市女性選民的投票行為更具有解釋力或預測力。 / This study aimed to explore the social background characteristics, voting orientations, and voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City during the 2010 Taipei Mayoral Election and analyze the most important factors which influenced the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City. The analysis method adopted by this study was the secondary analysis. The data were retrieved from the “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study” of a 3-year research project from 2009 to 2012 (2/3): The Survey Project of 2010 Municipal Mayoral Election (TEDS 2010C): NSC 99-2420-H-031-002. Statistical analysis methods such as frequencies, Chi-square test, t-test, Analysis of variance (ANOVA), and logistic regression model were applied to the data and the results were interpreted. After the statistical analyses were performed, the findings are summarized below: 1. Female and male voters in Taipei City were different in political knowledge, party identification, candidate evaluation, which candidate can represent the voters concerned issue, and satisfaction of mayoral’s performance. However, in the aspect of whom to vote, both male and female voters mostly voted for Lung-bin Hau, though with different percentages. The key factors which influenced the voting behavior of female and male voters in Taipei City included two variables: party identification and candidate evaluation. 2. For the interviewed female voters in Taipei City, variables proposed by this study, including province of origin, income, ethnic group identification, party identification, candidate evaluation difference, candidate feeling thermometer, which candidate can represent the voter’s concerned issue, satisfaction of mayoral’s performance, were all significantly related to their voting behavior respectively. In other words, these variables could influence the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City. After including these variables in the same model to compare their relative influences, it was found that the two most influential variables were “party identification” and “candidate evaluation difference”. 3. For the female voters in Taipei City, the demographic variables such as province of origin, income, and ethnic group identification were significantly related to their voting behavior respectively. However, compared with other social psychological variables like party identification, and candidate evaluation, these demographic variables were not as significant according to the results of the influence analysis using the logistic regression model. Therefore, the social psychological approach proposed by the Michigan School was better than the sociological approach proposed by the Columbia School in explanatory power and prediction power of the voting behavior of female voters in Taipei City.

在關於政黨認同的研究中，除了明白表示出政黨認同的這群人之外，其餘沒有明白表示出政黨認同的選民，通常被歸類為所謂的「中立無反應」者，或是「獨立選民」。然而，這群沒有明白表示出政黨認同或投票對象的受訪者是否真是中立或無反應者，抑或真是獨立選民呢？葉銘元（1994）針對我國的獨立選民曾做過相當詳細的研究，本文接續其研究，選擇政治大學選舉研究中心的面訪資料，針對1989年至1999年間我國獨立選民的發展與變遷情形，分別就「我國獨立選民政黨認同及社會背景的發展與變遷」、「我國獨立選民政治涉入的發展與變遷」、「我國獨立選民投票取向的發展與變遷」及「影響獨立選民發展與變遷的因素」等方面作分析。 研究結果發現：我國獨立選民的比例雖然有下降的趨勢，但是近年來此種趨勢似乎有逆轉的情形，且獨立選民比例的高低的確會受到選舉制度不同的影響。獨立選民的社會背景也和政黨認同者有差異，他們的政治涉入較政黨認同者為低，對候選人及政黨評價較低，對議題保持中立的立場，投票時比較會考量候選人的條件優劣，較不會依政黨界限投票。與此同時，我們也發現獨立選民的組成上是由政治知識及政治涉入較低的「冷漠型獨立選民」，逐漸轉變為政治知識及政治涉入較高的「理想型獨立選民」。 在未來的發展趨勢上，我們發現新世代及新新世代選民中獨立選民所佔的比例是較低的，因此我們可以預期，獨立選民的比例應該還有下降的可能性。在民主化的進程繼續推展，政黨政治日益成熟穩定之後，我們預期有政黨認同的選民會呈現增長的趨勢，與此同時，獨立選民並不會大幅度的減少。基於獨立選民是理想公民的期待，我們相信還是會有一定比例的民眾認為自己是獨立選民，但正如同我們觀察到的，此時的獨立選民將不再是對政治一無所知，或是對政治冷漠的冷漠型獨立選民；而將成為對政治保持高度關注，並能依自己客觀的態度做出政治決定的理想公民。 / In most studies about party identification, people who do not clearly indicate their party identification are usually classified as so「neutral non-respondents」or 「Independents」. Are these respondents really neutral or non-response, or are they really independents ? Yeh Ming-Yuan (1994) has done detailed research on independent voters in Taiwan. This thesis follows his research, using individual level survey data to analyze the developing and changing situation of independent voters in Taiwan from 1989 through 1999. In particular, this thesis examines changing party identification and social background of independent voters, changing political involvement among independent voters, changing vote intentions of independent voters, and the facts which have influenced the develop of independent voters. Our research outcomes have shown that although the percentage of independent voters in Taiwan has declined, in recent years this trend seems to have reversed, The percentage of independent voters has actually been influenced by changes in the electoral system. There are differences in social background between independents and party identifiers. The degree of political involvement of independent voters is lower than that of party identifiers. Their evaluation of candidates and parties is also lower than those of party identifiers. They tend to stay neutral to all political issues when making their voting decisions, they tend to consider the conditions of the candidates, rather than voting by the boundary of parties. However, we also discover that independent voters are gradually evolving from "apathetic independent voters", with lower political knowledge and lower political involvement, to "ideal independent voters", with higher political knowledge and higher political involvement. Looking to the future, we discover that the percentage of independent voters in the next generation and the generation after that are much lower. Hence we can predict that the percentage of independent voters will likely decline. With the continuing development of democracy and the increasing maturity and stability of party politics, we expect that the percentage of party indentifiers will grow. However, this does not necessarily mean that the percentage of independent voters will decline dramatically.Because of the expectation that independent voters are the ideal citizens, we believe that there are still a certain percentage of people who will consider themselves as independent voters. Hence, independent voters increasingly will not be "apathetic independent voters" who know nothing about politics. On the contrary, they will become "ideal citizens" who keep highly concerned about politics and make political decisions according to their own subjective attitudes.

本篇論文是以中國大陸甘肅省臨夏回族自治州的州治所在臨夏市為主要的田調場域，研究對象是臨夏市穆斯林社群的婦女們，研究切入的時間點正值西部大開發帶動臨夏社會經濟現代化的契機，此地的穆斯林因應此變化被迫必要調整其傳統倫理規範對婦女們的制約，讓婦女走出家庭、甚至走出河州，解放其勞動力，隨其知識獨立經濟獨立後，藉此良機提升地位，並對社會做更大的貢獻。 臨夏市的穆斯林社群是傳統華夏社會的縮影，惟因位處邊緣加上歷史因素，其社群相對封閉而變化較緩，婦女地位低下仍是目前社群內部普遍存在的問題。搭乘大開發的列車，為呈現穆斯林女性地位已出現或可能有的變化，在章節的安排上，第一章、第二章針對回回婦女集體歷史記錄的失落，企圖利用有限的文獻材料，重構此邊緣族群婦女的歷史圖像，順勢彰顯華夏社會“男尊女卑”、“男主外，女主內”根深柢固的傳統與臨夏穆斯林社群的婦女地位問題相對應的關係，特別是在複合文化交疊、異例突出的邊緣地帶；為釐清外界對伊斯蘭教與回回社群的誤解，特別在第三章釐清這個複合規範的內涵，分從儒家的道德綱常、伊斯蘭的倫理觀與西北特殊的風俗民情三部分論述，時至今日臨夏穆斯林婦女所承受的規範制約，究竟是哪一部分需要調整或必要革新，或許在地的穆斯林也並不是那麼清楚所謂的傳統，究竟是舊封建社會的遺緒，抑或是伊斯蘭教教義、教法使然，不願人云亦云、積非成是地全歸咎於伊斯蘭的宗教特性，對照歷史軌跡尋繹，從理性認知解放臨夏穆斯林婦女，自覺、自尊方能由此建立。 筆者如此關注臨夏穆斯林婦女地位的問題，乃因在臨夏調研時的實際觀察，仍見臨夏穆斯林社群婦女很傳統的生活面向，故在第四章介紹傳統規約下的婦女生活，從婦女的婚姻、家庭生活、勞務分工與宗教規箴對女學的影響等方面提供一些民族誌的觀察。由於社會調查有其普遍採樣的困難和限制，加上臨夏正處在社會經濟變遷的過渡階段，多元、多樣正是此階段的特色，故選擇口訪對象盡可能是在一定的社會高度，有較廣泛見聞以及能理性陳述的對象，不乏公部門幹部、老師、醫師和律師，藉之強化此民族誌觀察的可信度與說服力。 本篇論文的第五章則談論臨夏經濟發展人力需求的趨勢，而穆斯林婦女所須具備的競爭條件，而從臨夏婦女接受義務教育的現實問題、宗教女學蓬勃發展的利弊以及婦女法律認知、制度配套與人為因素致使婦女權利在實踐上出現相當的落差，於田調實察所得數據和資料來說明社群內部有待改變、革新之處。現代化的潮流和進程難以阻擋，臨夏市在現代化社會的轉型過程，舊價值與新發展之間的矛盾和衝突性無可避免，婦女地位提升已成為社會整體進步的關鍵，也漸成為穆斯林社群的共識；包括臨夏面對都市化的衝擊，伊斯蘭Jamaat內部可能面臨的文化危機，保守的宗教體制內是否應該與時俱進地賦予女學新定位、新任務，促使婦女在族教邊界的維繫上發揮固基的力量，故在第六章仍以民族誌的觀察為主，介紹臨夏部分穆斯林女性在宗教、學術、經濟與政治等領域不凡的表現，她們衝破既有族教藩籬與限制，力爭上游，成為在地穆斯林婦女效法的標竿。總之，改善不利於穆斯林婦女發展的負向指標，提升她們的地位，在推動臨夏社會經濟進步極具現實價值，是本論文的研究旨趣所在。 任何社群只要存在兩性的差異，婦女學與兩性研究就有存在下去的理由。過往少數民族婦女議題歸屬學術研究的邊陲，本篇論文就學術價值而言，其貢獻有二：一則，為社會科學研究婦女民族誌開闢了新領域，強化女性文化的基礎；二則，選擇邊緣穆斯林族群的婦女議題，除了釐清對伊斯蘭教在中國西北世俗化過程的許多誤解，也使穆斯林婦女在現代婦女史與婦女民族誌中不再留白，或無言。