本研究為釐清國內與國際非政府組織在臺灣發展關係，從環境與人權倡議議題為範圍討論，從臺灣目前進行環境與人權倡議工作的非政府組織中收集相關訊息，瞭解現今組織之間工作遇到的問題及困難，探討其發生的可能和原因，最後試圖提出研究建議與解決辦法。 奠基非政府組織在臺灣發展出的特殊性，伴隨著民主人權的發展，同時，臺灣環境議題倡議發展相較於其他亞洲國家也成熟許多，在現在全球化時代下的發展，國與國之間的界線也越來越模糊，網路科技的發明，使得交流不再如過去般受到諸多限制，因此也將各區域中相關的非政府組織連結，形成具有槓桿力量的跨國倡議網絡，企圖進而影響國家內部，促使政府能有所作為。 透過文獻分析及深度訪談瞭解組織倡議及發展，深入體會國際非政府組織在臺灣倡議遇到的困難，以及國內非政府組織面對這些問題的兩難，本研究結論，以跨國倡議網絡策略為主軸予以建議，非政府組織之間必須要有溝通的管道，避免資訊不對稱以及產生誤解，減少延誤倡議工作進行的最佳時機點，政府對於外國團體在臺灣人民團體法適應的問題及限制以及外國人在台工作的法規也應該有所彈性或裁量空間，才能開啟更多讓世界看見臺灣的可能性。 / The purpose of this thesis is to explore the relationship between local and international nongovernment organizations on human rights and environmental advocacy issues. To understand these problems and difficulties, research involved conducting in-depth interviews with workers of local and international nongovernment organizations. The purpose of the research is to find out the reasons to explain the problems of the relationship and know how to solve. The thesis concludes with suggestions about how to best develop the transnational advocacy network strategies of Taiwan in the future. As a nation without global recognition of its national status, Taiwan faces with the difficulty of participating international affairs. Through transnational advocacy network including the strategies of symbolic, information, leverage, accountability politics, these NGOs compel the government to make changes. As a result, Taiwan has a greater opportunity to be a contributor in global public affairs. The result of the research is to clarify the relationship, strengths, and weaknesses between local and international nongovernment organizations to cope with the challenges they experience with each other. In conclusion, there are four main suggestions below: 1) Make sure information is communicated across international and local advocacy. 2) Do the things right at the right time. 3) Make a big difference with leverage politics. 4) Focus on the importance of accountability and self-discipline when nongovernmental organizations face international affairs.

2016年的英國脫歐公投，最終以51.89%比48.11%的差距，決定了英國脫歐的命運。各界紛紛揣測各種可能造成民眾投下脫歐一票的原因，包含個人經濟狀況、政黨認同、受民粹操控、反菁英、對歐洲認同等。本文針對既有研究中尚存在之空缺，聚焦「議題投票取向」對選民投票抉擇的影響，探究脫歐陣營對資訊的扭曲是否對選民的投票抉擇有顯著影響。論文就脫歐派針對國民健保、移民、脫歐後的英國對外經貿、失業率、勞工權益保障與是否能無條件持續享有歐盟單一市場好處這六項議題，透過「二分勝算對數模型」進行分析，從個體層次行為來瞭解資訊扭曲對選民在脫歐公投中投票行為的影響。 研究結果顯示，在移民潮來襲、民眾高喊反全球化與選民不安全感高漲的大環境背景下，脫歐陣營對選民所關心之議題的煽動與對資訊的操控使選民在做出投票抉擇時受到明顯誤導。此外，模型結果亦顯示，選民的個人社經背景與心理態度認知同樣對選民投票行為產生影響。總結而言，本研究透過微觀層次的分析，針對促使選民投下脫歐一票的因素做出深入探討，並以「資訊扭曲」作為重要變數，補充議題投票相關研究之不足。 / In the Brexit referendum held in June 2016, 51.89 per cent of the voter voted Leave and 48.11 per cent voted Remain. The result sealed the fate of the UK as an outsider of the European Union. While the reasons behind voter’s choice to leave the EU remain disputed, individual voter’s socio-economic status, party identification, populism, anti-elite mood, and identity toward European were among the most frequently listed factors. In order to fill the gap that existing researchs has left, this thesis focuses on the significance of “issue voting” in voting behavior. It discusses if the distortion of information by the Leave campaign had a significant impact on people’s voting choice. It uses the “logistic regression model” to analyse six issues brought about by the Leave campaign. They include the NHS, immigration, trading arrangements with other nations, unemployment, working conditions for British workers, and unconditional maintaining of all the benefits from the EU. By focusing on the individual level, I try to investigate how the distortion of information has impacted upon people’s voting behavior in the Brexit referendum. The study shows that against the background of an increased flow of immigrants and heightened anti-globalization mood, voters had a strong sense of insecurity. Under such circumstances, the Leave campaign exploited the opportunity to incite voters on issues they cared most about, manipulated information during the demagogic campaign, and misled people on their voting decision. In addition, the model also demonstrates that voters’ socioeconomic status and mental cognizance have the same effect on people’s voting behavior. In the nutshell, this thesis uses micro-level analysis to investigate voter behavior in the Brexit referendum. It brings in “information distortion” as a key variable in explaining voter behavior, a variable largely neglected in the existing literature on issue voting.

自從習近平在「莊園會晤」時向歐巴馬提出，中美共同建立新型大國關係，中共在亞太地區已經是掩蓋不住大國崛起的態勢。此時的平壤早已察覺到大國的壓力，面對中美關係日趨緊密，北韓為維持政權延續以及從中獲取利益，盡其所能提高在中美大國競爭時的籌碼，尤其是在東北亞各國政權更替時，施展戰略邊緣政策。 美國藉由北韓核試爆議題，成功部署軍事規劃、高舉國際輿論的大旗，迫使中共不得不對北韓施以必要措施。對於北韓不斷的舉行核試爆與導彈試射，中共在維護其重要國家利益與面對美國再平衡戰略的考量下，轉而借力使力，運用北韓核議題的持續發酵，得以延長應對美國及國際壓力。 因此，整個東北亞的關係結構，就是有關各國在中共與美國之間，取得對自己最大利益的位置。 / Xi Jinping proposed to Obama in the "Ennenberg Estate” summit in California during June 2013, Beijing has aftermath tried every effort to establish a “New Type of Great Power Relations” with Washington. China rise has been an obvious trend in the Asia-Pacific region. In this critical moment, Pyongyang has been aware of the pressure of big powers, in the face of China and the United States increasingly conciliatory relationship. In order to stabilize the North Korean regime and continue to take advantage of power politics in this area, North Korea tries to facilitate its bargaining gravity within the Sino-American interaction when they seek to use Pyongyang to counterbalance against each other. Particularly North Korea tends to exert its caliber of brinkmanship policy while it notices that the East Asian area is in the process of regime reshuffles. . Against the backdrop of North Korea's threat of continuing nuclear tests, Washington successfully accomplished military deployment and dominate direction of world public opinion in forcing China to impose the necessary measures on North Korea. For North Korea's ongoing nuclear test and missile test, China intends to manipulate its advantage based on its national interest. In the meantime, China implements this policy to counterweight the US “Rebalancing” strategy. Beijing goes to use the issue of North Korean nuclear development to further exert its strategy in responding to the pressures from both the United States and international community. Therefore, the international structure in the Northeast Asia, therefore, is that the concerning countries are seeking for their maximize advantage in the Sino-U.S. strategic engagement.

法律繼受是近代企求變法圖強國家的典型產物，繼受過程可能產生多元的面貌，然而在多元的面貌背後，往往是以新舊思維的競爭與掙扎為代價，付出難以估量的社會成本。由於繼受過程中的不確定性、持續性，進一步將問題複雜化，如何減少新的法律文化分娩的陣痛，是所有繼受法律體制應該思考的問題。 作為民初最高審判機關的大理院，在政局混沌、立法機制未能正常運作、民事法律不足的情勢下，成為一個重要的轉型期司法機制。大理院做為一個司法機關，卻積極透過判例體系的建構等具有實質立法傾向的方式，為不少民事規範的創設代庖，並不是常態的權力分立作法，但是卻形成了特殊的民事法律整合機制，而這正是法律繼受值得加以探討的課題。 除了大理院的組織、職能、人事素質等課題以外，本文將從實質與形式層面進行大理院民事判決的實證分析。西法東漸後，法律漸將倫理意義上的人格與法律意義上的人格區分開來，從強調身分秩序的差等性轉向近代平權立法。實質面上，本文將焦點內化到大理院的實際運作過程，討論平權理念如何在司法運作中獲得實現，大理院如何因應近代法律體制、憲政架構的要求，求取個人與家族倫理秩序的協調。在形式面上，不能僅將大理院對於近代法學方法與法律原則的引介，視為只是一種形式的操作，事實上這種西方式的司法程序、法律原則、法學方法的引介，往往改變舊有規範的適用情境，促成了平權理念實現。 本文認為法律繼受的核心是一個心理機制的問題。這個問題可以分成兩個層次：第一個層次是研究法律繼受必須透過多層次的分析方法，繼受是長期社會變遷過程，除了對於被繼受法律進行法律辨識工作、從事體系化的立法行為以外，也必須設法對於法律繼受的作用機制加以釐清，才可能達成繼受的社會目的。第二個層次則是從法意識深化的角度加強繼受的實效，真正意義的繼受在於法律意識的「內化」，我們必須區分不同社會成員的不同法意識層次，相應的設計出不同的法意識深化管道。這個過程可以透過某些制度性設計加以催化，司法機制就是一種「議題化」的制度性設計；將爭點「議題化」之後，可以使規範或個案的實質合理性放在一個可檢證的場域中接受檢視，這個過程可能改變了規範的適用情境，且透過社群成員參與的可能性，促進法律意識的深化。 轉型期司法機制常被賦與有效導引社會變革的期待，但轉型期司法機制必須面對特殊的角色困境，某些變革也不一定適合由司法機關來主導，綜合前述的實證分析，本文將嘗試釐清由司法機制導引社會變革會不會淪為一種落空的期待。

民主政治運作過程中，當主政者無法滿足選民需求時，選民理所當然會以選票表達其自主性，找一個更符合其需求的政黨作為治理國家的代理人（總統）。政黨輪替就成為選民選擇最佳代理人的手段。政黨輪替的本身，就是一種權力交替與權力制衡，特別是在執政黨交不出政績的時候，政黨輪替就是一個民主的制裁機制，更是一個國家走向民主政治的重要指標。 影響選民決定更換治國代理人的投票抉擇因素，主要有政黨因素、候選人因素，抑或是議題因素。無論在美國與其他西方國家，甚至在已開發或開發中國家都已經獲得印證。當選民利用參考標的進行投票，選民的總統選舉投票結果將會匯集成決定最後政權誰屬。把票投給執政黨的候選人，還是把票投給在野政黨的候選人，不僅攸關個別政黨與候選人的選舉成敗，而且還影響到統治權力歸屬，甚至會牽動政黨輪替執政的可能性，其重要性，不言而諭。也正因如此，政治學者亟思理出選舉各黨勢力消長的軌跡，試圖描繪出選民投票抉擇的決定如何影響政治權力的轉移。 本文的目的，是研究選民投票抉擇的一般原則應用到總統選舉結果「政權轉移」或「政黨輪替」這個重要的主題，針對可能造成多數選民由投票支持原有執政黨轉而投票支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因進行討論。台灣與墨西哥這兩個長久以來一黨威權獨大的政權，卻同時在西元二○○○年發生政黨輪替的現象。有關選民選擇支持原有最大在野黨取得執政權的成因，主要從三個面向進行討論： 首先，政黨認同因素，選民政黨認同發生改變所引發的政黨認同重組現象，讓原本獲得多數選民支持的執政黨，因為政黨重組的因素變成僅吸引少數選民支持的在野黨；相反地，原本僅有少數選民支持的在野黨，因為政黨重組的關係變成吸引多數選民支持的執政黨。其次，候選人因素，候選人人格特質、能力與對候選人情感溫度等因素，讓多數選民受候選人這個短期因素所影響而選擇支持最大在野黨執政。最後，議題因素，選民的展望性評價與重大議題中的改革議題，因選民希冀更換原有執政黨，由最大反對黨執政，能夠改變趨於日益不振的經濟現況，並透過大幅改革能改變舊政府的缺失，期望新政府能夠振衰起弊。 / In the democratic operation process, when the director is unable meet the citizens need, the citizen would express their autonomy by votes. Looking for one (or political party) who could conform to the citizens demand takes the government (president) of this country. Party rotation is a democratic sanction mechanism. That is an important indicator for country achieving the democracy. There are some factors must be considered while establishing voting behavior models in the turnover elections. There mainly are the party identification or party preference, the candidate image, and policy orientation. My thesis finds that party realignment is the key variable for 2000 Mexican presidential election, but 2000 Taiwan presidential is not. Candidate image or candidate personality centers on competence, likeability, honesty, reliability, and understanding people’s needs. Candidate evaluation refers to an overall assessment of the candidates: it is measured by way of “feeling thermometers”. My study found that candidate image is an important factor in determining Mexican and Taiwan voters choosing the opposition party candidate for a new president. The results shows that the policy issues, including prospective economic voting and the salience issue of change influence people’s voting choices.

本研究以1997年台灣縣市長選舉為標的，彙整政治學有關投票行為的相關理論，包含社會學研究途徑、社會心理學研究途徑與理性抉擇途徑的研究成果，整合該年度之總體與個體資料而設計出「特質調整模型」。特質調整模型是透過兩階段的操作模式進行預測，首先以基礎模型反應全國一致的因素，使之適用於台灣所有縣市，這些因素包括政黨認同、候選人取向與社會人口學變項。但由於各縣市狀況仍有不同，因此再進一步用延伸模型來考量各縣市的特殊選舉因素。延伸模型在基礎模型的規模上，以描述性統計來觀察選區情形後，再加入各地特質於模型之中，使其預測結果能反映各地特殊狀況。在延伸模型中，考量的因素包括議題取向、環境系絡因素、策略性投票、在位者表現、派系取向與賄選問題等。 在特質調整模型中，本研究嘗試以對數迴歸模型對各地區進行模擬計算，並用機率論的方式呈現每一位受訪者的投票可能，以反應政治學理論中的不確定性。研究結果發現基礎模型確能相當地反應出台灣各縣市的選舉狀況，描繪各地的一般狀況，而延伸模型又能更精確地貼近各地的選舉結果，反映各地的特殊選情。在資料完整的狀況下，最後各縣市的預測誤差均不超過抽樣誤差。 第一章 緒論 1 壹、研究動機與目的 1 貳、文獻檢閱 3 第二章 研究方法 25 壹、研究範圍與資料來源 25 貳、模型建構 28 參、研究架構 33 肆、模型評估 35 第三章 基礎模型 38 壹、 變數建構 38 貳、 基礎模型的探討 42 參、 討論 84 第四章 延伸模型：基礎模型的應用 87 壹、延伸模型的設計 87 貳、基隆市的延伸模型 89 參、台北縣的延伸模型 98 肆、桃園縣的延伸模型 115 伍、新竹市的延伸模型 123 陸、台中市的延伸模型 129 柒、彰化縣的延伸模型 140 捌、台南市的延伸模型 153 玖、台南縣的延伸模型 166 拾、小結 172 第五章 結論 174 壹、研究回顧 174 貳、研究效果評估 178 參、研究限制與未來研究建議 179 參考文獻 184 / This research is focused on Taiwanese county magistrates election in 1997, and based on the aggregate and individual data to design a forecasting model, named "Joined Idiosyncrasies Adjusted Model" (JIA Model). This model is operated by two stages. First, I compute a basic model, which reflects some general factors in every county. Second, I design extended models to adjust the output of basic models. Those extended models can precisely show the situation of every single county. In this model, I try to use logistic regression to compute the candidate's votes, and present the final forecast output in probability. This model made the county magistrates election more predictable, and the model errors are less than the sampling errors.

教育政策形成過程中的政治影響向來被視為重要的因素，但是是否重要成為主導力量卻甚少有系統性的研究。本研究使用多重個案的研究設計方式，一方面研究範圍擴大為兩類型（一般性質與統獨性質）五個案（教育基本法、教育經費保障、常態編班、開放大陸學歷、拼音政策）的重大教育政策，另一方面將五項個案運用共同一致的觀察指標（政策論述框架、自主性、動員性與聯盟性）以作為比較的基礎。以此兩項前提下，試圖實證整體教育政策研究上，政治因素對教育政策的涉入，提供較為系統性與完整的結論。 在一般的教育政策上，代表政治因素與考量的政治框架，則從沒在任何一項政策各案中成為運用最多的論述內容。但是在統獨性質的教育政策上，政策的產生的確深受政治因素為最多的考量。 在自主性上，一般性質的教育政策中利益團體的自主性相較於政黨與教育行政機關是相當高的，但是在統獨性質的教育政策上，利益團體的自主性卻不如政黨與行政機關。 在動員性方面，一般性質的教育政策，較常處於行政機關（特別是主管教育事物的中央教育部），被動地面臨單方或多方的利益團體的壓力，利益團體間也不見得總是全面合作，而是也存在著角力與對抗的過程。至於統獨性質的教育政策則是十足的反映出由於政治上各政黨對於統獨意見的分歧，使得統獨教育政策的結果主要是在政黨對抗的情況下產生。 綜合以上研究結果顯示，教育政策的互動過程的確因為政策性質的不同而有不一樣的互動型態。證實了相較於一般性質的教育政策，統獨性質的拼音政策與大陸學歷開放政策的形成過程，的確在各指標上都顯示有較高的政治決定因素。

本研究是國內第一個以「警政負面新聞」為主題的研究，希望藉由第三人效果的認知假設，探討警政負面新聞的影響。除了探討警察人員對警政負面新聞是否存在所謂的第三人效果之外；並分別從人口變項、議題涉入感、社會距離、職業認同感等變項，探究對警政負面新聞的認知影響，同時也進一步就行為層面上的關係加以剖析。 本研究以服務於全國二十三縣市警察局之現職警察為目標，採用問卷調查法為主，回收並取得八百四十六份有效問卷。資料分析顯示，警政負面新聞對警察人員產生第一人和第三人的效果，受訪警察認為警政負面新聞對於自己的影響大於一般警察，即呈現了所謂的第一人效果；同時又普遍認為警政負面新聞對於一般民眾會產生更大的負面影響，呈現非常明顯的第三人效果。就社會距離而言，警政負面新聞對於一般警察和一般民眾的影響，會隨著與受訪者之間的距離增加而增加。這種社會距離的形成，肇因於不同團體之間的異質性和不確定感。 對於警政議題涉入感方面，研究證實受訪者對警政新聞議題涉入愈高者，普遍認為對自己、一般警察、一般民眾愈會造成負面影響。本研究同時發現警察的職業認同感維持在中度以上，結果顯示職業認同感可以正面預測「對自己的影響」、「對一般警察的影響」、「對一般民眾的影響」三者，即警察的職業認同感愈高，愈傾向認為警政負面新聞的負面影響愈大。受訪者認為警政負面新聞的影響愈大，愈傾向支持媒介限制行動。總的來說，警政負面新聞「對自己的影響」、「對一般警察的影響」、「對一般民眾的影響」等變項，均是預測支持警政機關採取媒介限制行為的顯著變項。 / This thesis is the first study in Taiwan focusing on “negative police news”, attempting to apply the third person effect theory to study the possible impact of negative news coverage of police. This research furthermore investigates several variables, including demographic variables, issue involvement, social distance, and professional identification, and their influence on the perception of negative police news. A relationship of exposure of negative news and support of media regulation is analyzed at the same time. A survey of 846 incumbent officers from twenty-three metropolitan police agencies in Taiwan was conducted. Results show that negative news coverage of police has both first and third person effects on police officers. Officers consider that effects of negative police news have stronger impact on themselves than on other officers. They generally consider that negative police news has more negative influence on the general public. From a viewpoint of social distance, an attitude formed through heterogeneity and uncertainty among different social groups, this study found that effects of exposure to negative police news upon perception of the effect on other officers were more limited than on the general public. From the aspect of issue involvement, the more the officers were involved in negative news issues, the more they consider negative police news has negative effects upon themselves, other officers and the general public. This study also concluded that the higher the professional identification a police officer held, the more she/he tended to consider that negative police news had a stronger impact. We also found that there was a tendency that police officers were more likely to support media regulation. Effects upon oneself, effects upon other police officers, and effects upon the general public of negative news coverage of police, were all variables significantly predicting the support of media regulation.

偵測新興議題對於研究者而言是一個相當重要的問題，研究者如何在有限的時間和資源下探討同一領域內的新興議題將比解決已經成熟的議題帶來較大的貢獻和影響力。本研究將致力於協助研究者偵測新興且具有未來潛力的研究議題，並且從學術論文中探究對於研究者在做研究中有幫助的學術智慧。在搜尋可能具有研究潛力的議題時，我們假設具有研究潛力的議題將會由同一領域中較具有影響力的作者和刊物發表出，因此本研究使用貝式估計的方法去推估同一領域中相關的研究者和學術刊物對於該領域的影響力，進而藉由這些資訊可以找出未來具有潛力的新興候選議題。此外就我們所知的議題偵測文獻中對於認定一個議題是否已經趨於成熟或者是否新穎且具有研究的潛力仍然缺乏有效及普遍使用的衡量工具，因此本研究試圖去發展有效的衡量工具以評估議題就本身的發展生命週期是否仍然具有繼續投入的學術價值。 本研究從許多重要的資料庫中挑選了和資料探勘和資訊檢索相關的論文並且驗證這些在會議論文中所涵蓋的議題將會領導後續幾年期刊論文相似的議題。此外本研究也使用了一些已經存在的演算法並且結合這些演算法發展一個檢測的流程幫助研究者去偵測學術論文中的領導趨勢並發掘學術智慧。本研究使用貝式估計的方法試圖從已經發表的資訊和被引用的資訊來建構估計作者和刊物的影響力的事前機率與概似函數，並且計算出同一領域重要的作者和刊物的影響力，當這些作者和刊物的論文發表時將會相對的具有被觀察的價值，進而檢定這些新興候選議題是否會成為新興議題。而找出的重要研究議題雖然已經縮小探索的範圍，但是仍然有可能是發展成熟的議題使得具有影響力的作者和刊物都必須討論，因此需要評估議題未來潛力的指標或工具。然而目前文獻中對於評估議題成熟的方法僅著重在議題的出現頻率而忽視了議題的新穎度也是重要的指標，另一方面也有只為了找出新議題並沒有顧及這個議題是否具有未來的潛力。更重要的是單一的使用出現頻率的曲線只能在議題已經成熟之後才能確定這是一個重要的議題，使得這種方法成為落後的指標。 本研究試圖提出解決這些困境的指標進而發展成衡量新興議題潛力的方法。這些指標包含了新穎度指標、發表量指標和偵測點指標，藉由這些指標和曲線可以在新興議題的偵測中提供更多前導性的資訊幫助研究者去建構各自領域中新興議題的偵測標準。偵測點所代表的意義並非這個議題開始新興的正確日期，它代表了這個議題在自己發展的生命週期上最具有研究的潛力和價值的時間點，因此偵測點會根據後來的蓬勃發展而在時間上產生遞延的結果，這表示我們的指標可以偵測出議題生命力的延續。相對於傳統的次數分配曲線可以看出議題的崛起和衰退，本研究的發表量指標更能以生命週期的概念去看出議題在各個時間點的發展潛力。本研究希望從這些過程中所發現的學術智慧可以幫助研究者建構各自領域的議題偵測標準，節省大量人力與時間於探究新興議題。本研究所提出的新方法不僅可以解決影響因子這個指標的缺點，此外還可以使用作者和刊物的影響力去針對一個尚未累積任何索引次數的論文進行潛力偵測，解決Google 學術搜尋目前總是在論文已經被很多檢索之後才能確定論文重要性的缺點，學者總是希望能夠領先發現重要的議題或論文。然而，我們以議題為導向的檢索方法相信可以更確實的滿足研究者在搜尋議題或論文上的需求。 / This research presents endeavors that seek to identify the emerging topics for researchers and pinpoint research intelligence via academic papers. It is intended to reveal the connection between topics investigated by conference papers and journal papers which can help the research decrease the plenty of time and effort to detect all the academic papers. In order to detect the emerging research topics the study uses the Bayesian estimation approach to estimate the impact of the authors and publications may have on a topic and to discover candidate emerging topics by the combination of the impact authors and publications. Finally the research also develops the measurement tools which could assess the research potential of these topics to find the emerging topics. This research selected huge of papers in data mining and information retrieval from well-known databases and showed that the topics covered by conference papers in a year often leads to similar topics covered by journal papers in the subsequent year and vice versa. This study also uses some existing algorithms and combination of these algorithms to propose a new detective procedure for the researchers to detect the new trend and get the academic intelligence from conferences and journals. The research uses the Bayesian estimation approach and citation analysis methods to construct the prior distribution and likelihood function of the authors and publications in a topic. Because the topics published by these authors and publications will get more attention and valuable than others. Researchers can assess the potential of these candidate emerging topics. Although the topics we recommend decrease the range of the searching space, these topics may so popular that even all of the impact authors and publications discuss it. The measurement tools or indices are need. But the current methods only focus on the frequency of subjects, and ignore the novelty of subjects which is critical and beyond the frequency study or only focus one of them and without considering the potential of the topics. Some of them only use the curve of published frequency will make the index as a backward one. This research tackles the inadequacy to propose a set of new indices of novelty for emerging topic detection. They are the novelty index (NI) and the published volume index (PVI). These indices are then utilized to determine the detection point (DP) of emerging topics. The detection point (DP) is not the real time which the topic starts to be emerging, but it represents the topic have the highest potential no matter in novelty or hotness for research in its life cycle. Different from the absolute frequent method which can really find the exact emerging period of the topic, the PVI uses the accumulative relative frequency and tries to detect the research potential timing of its life cycle. Following the detection points, the intersection decides the worthiness of a new topic. Readers following the algorithms presented this thesis will be able to decide the novelty and life span of an emerging topic in their field. The novel methods we proposed can improve the limitations of impact factor proposed by ISI. Besides, it uses the impact power of the authors and the publication in a topic to measure the impact power of a paper before it really has been an impact paper can solve the limitations of Google scholar’s approach. We suggest that the topic oriented thinking of our methods can really help the researchers to solve their problems of searching the valuable topics.

世界貿易組織協定之整體架構，其內容涵蓋了關稅暨貿易總協定、修正1947年關稅暨貿易總協定的瞭解書，以及規範貨品貿易、服務貿易，與智慧財產權的多邊貿易協定等。世界貿易組織協定中的附件1B，即是為規範服務貿易所訂之服務貿易總協定（General Agreement on Trade in Services，以下簡稱GATS）。由於服務貿易相關議題的起步與發展相形較晚，因此各國就世界貿易組織協定達成協議時，GATS中許多議題仍不成熟也缺乏共識，難以有具體之處理與規範。但是為了能在日後繼續處理這些未完成的議題，因此，乃在GATS條文中分別規定相關文字，要求會員在WTO成立生效後應繼續這些議題的討論與處理。 GATS中這些要求留待日後處理的內建（built-in）議題，分別規定在第6條第4項（國內規章）、第10條第1項（緊急防衛措施）、第13條第2項（政府採購）、第15條第1項（補貼）、以及第19條（特定承諾之談判）。其中，關於特定承諾談判的要求是屬於漸進式自由化的議題，其餘四項議題則是關於GATS規則之議題。由於GATS各項內建議題均頗為複雜與困難，對GATS整體架構都有一定程度之影響，其發展具有相當之重要性，從而本文期望能針對GATS規則制定的議題進行整理與分析，並在相關資料評估的基礎之上，提供若干之建議以供參考。惟鑑於時間與篇幅的考量，本文將限縮著重在緊急防衛、政府採購以及補貼等三項內建議題的討論上。 由於發展程度與個別國家的考量有所差異，已開發國家以及開發中國家對於此等議題的主張不盡相同，本文嘗試就此三項議題依序以第二章、第三章、第四章分別加以探討，透過整理、瞭解此三項談判的基本發展、重要爭議與相關之討論意見，就此三項談判的相關資料、重要爭議或討論意見予以扼要分析與適當論述，同時在目前的談判進度下，本文嘗試從開發中國家與已開發國家之不同立場為討論之出發點，並以前者立場作為我國之談判基調，並視我國實際情況作出調整，進而提出對此三項議題之評估與分析，以瞭解個別議題目前討論的進展，以及相關主張可能產生之影響。 最後，本文在前述各章的評估與分析的基礎之上，在第五章分別就此三項議題提出本文之建議，期望能提供相關研究人員以及有關當局作為參考。 / This thesis focuses on the three ongoing issues of the GATS built–in agenda - the negotiations on emergency safeguard measures, government procurement, and subsidies. These three issues were too complicated to be dealt with properly in the Uruguay Round, so the issues left were regulated in Articles X, XIII and XV of GATS, which mandates members to resolve the issues in the future. Because each country’s developments and considerations are widely different from one another, developed and developing countries did not achieve consensus on these issues. This thesis attempts to introduce and analyze the different discussions and opinions on these three issues. Besides the introductory Chapter, the thesis consists of another four parts. Chapter 2 first introduces and clarifies controversial issues on emergency safeguard measures, and then analyzes the three main proposals about ESM (emergency safeguard mechanism) and estimates the most recent status of the issue. Chapter 3 deals with government procurement under the GATS. After reviewing the history of the negotiation, attention is paid to the proposal from the European Community (hereafter “the EC”). Because the proposal involved with a fierce debate over market access, the EC proposal on a framework for rules for government procurement of services could not be accepted by most developing countries. Therefore, the issue has made little progress in the past years. Chapter 3 concludes with some commentaries on the issue. Chapter 4 turns attention to subsidies in services. Article XV of GATS mandates members to enter into negotiations with a view to develop multilateral disciplines which would avoid the distortive effects that subsidies in services may have on trade in services. The negotiation on subsidies in services, however, involves many important issues, such as the necessity to regulate subsidies in services, the definition of subsidies in services, elements of rules, etc. Although members made efforts to address these questions, nothing concrete has been achieved. The last chapter consists of conclusions and recommendations.