本財務預警模型研究延續Shumway(2001)年所提出的離散型風險模型(Discrete-time Hazard Model)架構，即Shumway 所稱之多期邏輯斯迴歸模型(Multiperiod logistic regression model) ，來建立銀行財務預警模型。不同於Shumway所提出的Log 基期風險式，研究者根據實際財務危機發生機率圖提出Quadratic 基期風險式。由於離散型風險模型考量與時間相依共變量(Time-dependent covariate)，該模型可以納入隨時間變動的的市場與總體變數，這是單期模型無法達到的。實證結果顯示，不論是否有加入總體與市場變數，Quadratic 基期風險式離散型模型在樣本內檢測表現都比單期模型與Log 基期風險式離散型模型好，研究亦顯示樣本外的預測Quadratic基期風險式在大多數情況都優於Log 基期風險式與單期模型 / This paper continues Shumway(2001) studies on discrete time hazard model, the so called multi-period logistic regression model, to develop a bank failure early warning model . Different from log baseline hazard form proposed by Shumway, author present quadratic baseline hazard form based on the pattern of real default rate. By incorporating time-varying covariates, our model enables us to utilize macroeconomic and market variables, which cannot be incorporated into in a one-period model. We find that our model significantly outperforms the single period logit model and Log baseline hazard model with and without the macroeconomic and market variables at in-sample estimation. The improvement in accuracy comes both from the time-series bank-specific variables and from the time-series macroeconomic variables. Our research also shows that quadratic baseline hazard model outperforms Log baseline hazard model and single period logit model in out-of-sample prediction.

今日表演藝術舞臺上的「國樂團」，概指漢系傳統絲竹管弦擊等樂器為核心組合的樂隊編組，港澳稱「中樂」、東南亞稱「華樂」、中國大陸稱「民樂」，臺灣則稱為「國樂」，樂界因此謔稱為「中、華、民、國」的聚合與化身。對於樂隊編制、樂器形制幾乎完全相同的現代國樂團，在華人地區卻賦予不同的名稱，顯示著不同地區歷史、社會與民族文化的不同定位及指涉。漢系華人音樂現代化的工程，自清末民初揭開百年大業的序幕，過程猶可堪稱「孤臣孽子」之境況，然而屬於文化研究的學術關懷、當代音樂文化的在地經營、國樂發展的主體性論述均尚未周全，因此，擺盪於兩岸情勢起伏所帶來的非藝術性之干擾，往往成為許多研究的迷障；尤其以民族學∕人類學視界的社會科學深度研究，仍然呈現出低度開發的狀態。 本論文強調以民族學的概念為研究範疇，進行音樂的聲音、行為與概念三者環扣連結的文化研究；透過脈絡化的思維，考察研究臺灣漢系傳統音樂文化的構建、使用、傳播和發展，闡述音樂特徵、演變規律和獨特的文化意義。因此；本論文主要的研究方法從研究者親身踏查體驗的參與觀察法為基礎，資訊檢視主要透過文化全貌觀、多元文化主義、泛文化比較等等的視角，研究過程則採取文獻分析與田野實證雙向進行的策略，致力建立一個質性研究的文本，並透過民族學∕人類學的理論與觀點，釐清臺灣國樂的發展歷史及其背後所隱現的文化脈絡，探討臺灣民族、傳統與音樂文化經由許多不同過程的互換、僭用與轉化，所表現之多元、不均的文化認同。 本研究發掘一度隱沒於世塵的日治時期唱片產業之「臺灣華樂」形影，對於慣見的現代國樂「中原移植論」進行再審視，並且將臺灣漢系華人音樂現代化發展起點，從1949年的國府遷臺往前推展至1914年首張臺灣傳統音樂唱片的錄製發行，以具體的歷史錄音為事例，達到擴大研究議題的歷史縱深，形成百年發展史的學術架構。因此，本研究將臺灣漢系華人音樂現代化的發展過程，劃分為三個歷史階段：第一個階段是日治及其以前，屬於漢系藝能育成與現代化萌芽的時期；第二個階段的是二次大戰後、兩岸對峙隔絕的時期，經由公部門政策面的作多、大陸經驗的移植、唐山夢土的想像等因素，形成的文化連結與發展能量的蓄積；第三個階段則是臺灣解除戒嚴，在世紀之交逐漸展開文化反芻，邁入二十一世紀即可見紮實的在地深耕與豐碩的匯流分享之階段。對於國樂現代化發展與現代國家政體連繫之議題，本研究以民族學結合人文研究的特點，開啟臺灣漢系傳統音樂作為一個相對邊陲、幽微的社會文化，如何漸次被納入現代國家體制，以及如何經驗國家治理的過程。 研究結果顯示，在文化事務上，「國家」事實上並非如同許多傳統理論的概念：一個疆界嚴明、高度同質之政治實體，而是一個由許多相互聯繫的國際文化區塊之不穩定結合體，關於文化性的國家政策之探討，也都必須具備跨國境之視域。二十一世紀的臺灣成為一個範例，多元文化萌發自不同社會族群的運動和國際消費資本主義的流通。這樣的論點陳述了臺灣國樂隨著時代流動的政治、經濟、科技、社會、區域勢力、國際關係等等因素變化；也檢視一個當代極為普遍的文化離散現象。本研究借鑒「內地化」、「在地化」、「邊緣研究」三種觀點互異的文化發展理論，不僅辯證音樂、國家和多元文化主義之複合關係，更緊密地說明文化脫離的經驗和文化認同的建構。臺灣漢系傳統音樂的現代化發展，反映了生活，而生活造就了這個音樂文化與人群共同體百年來蓬勃的生命力。 / Nowadays, the so-called “Chinese Music Orchestra” in the field of performing art generally means the orchestra arrangement that centers on the combination of sizhu, stringed, and percussion instruments in Han Traditional Music. It is called “Zhōng - yuè（中樂）／Chinese Music” in Hong Kong and Macao, “Huá-yuè（華樂）／Chinese Music” in Southeast Asia. People in Mainland China call it “Mín-yuè（民樂）／National Music”, while it is called “Guó-yuè（國樂）／Traditional Music” in Taiwan. Therefore, it has diversified names in the music circles. The traditional Chinese music in modern times has nearly-identical orchestra arrangement and musical instrument systems, but it is endowed with different definitions in Chinese areas. This indicates the different orientations and references to the histories, societies, and ethnic cultures in different areas. The progress of the modernization of Han Traditional Chinese Music has started for more than one hundred years since the end of Qing（清） dynasty and the beginning of the Republic of China. Such a process was so solitary and frustrating. However, there are still the needs for completing the academic care for culture studies, the local management of contemporary music culture, and the subjectivity discourse of the development of traditional music. Consequently, many researches are often perplexed by non-artistic interference caused by the ups and downs swinging in the situation of the cross-strait situation. Especially, sufficient developments are not achieved yet, in terms of the profound researches regarding sociology in the aspects of ethnology/anthropology. The scope of the thesis is based on the concept regarding ethnology, for the purpose of culture researches on the correlation among the sound, behavior and concept of music. Through contextualized thinking, it intends to investigate and research the construction, use, propagation and development of Han Traditional Music Culture in Taiwan, so as to expound music features, patterns of change, and unique cultural meanings. Therefore, the research method in this thesis is mainly based on Participant Observation Method that needs a researcher to engage in field excursion and experience. Information Review is mainly undertaken through the perspectives such as cultural holistic view, multiculturalism, and cross-cultural comparative study. As for research processes, Document Analysis and Field Research are undertaken simultaneously, aiming to establish a text of qualitative research. Also, through the theories and viewpoints about ethnology/anthropology, it aims to clarify the development history of Taiwan’s traditional music as well as the cultural context hidden behind. This is to explore the diverse and uneven cultural identity of Taiwan’s nationalism , tradition and music cultures demonstrated through the exchanges, overstepping and conversions in many different processes. This study has excavated the passages regarding “Taiwan’s Huá-yuè（華樂）” in the Recording Industry in the Japanese Colonial Period that had once been died down in the world. Further reviews are made, aiming at the commonly-seen “China Transplant Theory” in traditional music in modern times. Also, the starting point of the modernization development of Taiwan’s Han Traditional Chinese Music has been deduced back to 1914 when first album of Taiwan’s traditional music had been recorded and released, instead of 1949 when KMT government moved to Taiwan. Based on concrete recording in the history as the example, this aims to achieve the historical depth for enlarging research issues, so as to construct an academic structure with centennial development history. Therefore, in this study, the process of the modernization development of Taiwan’s Han Traditional Chinese Music is divided into three historical stages. Stage 1 includes the Japanese Colonial Period and former times, a period for Han Artistic Cultivation and the germ of modernization. Stage 2 centers on the times after World War II─ a stage in which the cross straits were separated, confronting with each other. Cultural connections as well as the accumulation of development energy were formed, due to many factors such as the political premiums provided by public sectors, the experience transplants from Mainland China, and the imagination about Tang Shan（Chinese） wonderland. Stage 3 is the period after Taiwan had lifted its martial law. In this stage, cultural rumination began to take place gradually in the period between the end of last century and the beginning of this century. It is the stage for us to see solid local cultivation as well as abundant exchange sharing when the 21st Century began. In terms of the issue regarding the correlation between the modernization development of traditional music and the regimes of modern countries, this study aims to unfold the process how Taiwan’s Han Traditional Music─ a kind of social culture that used to be relatively marginalized─ has been gradually included into the modern national system and how it has experienced national management, by means of the features of ethnology combined with humanities research. The research findings indicate: In terms of cultural affairs, in fact a “country” is not similar to the concept─ a political regime with definite borders and high homogeneity─ expressed in many traditional theories. Instead, it is an unstable combination of many correlated international cultural blocks. As for the explorations of a country’s cultural policies, cross-country perspectives are also prerequisites. The Taiwan in the 21st Century has become an example, due to its multi-cultures sprouting from the movements from different social groups, as well as the circulation of international consumer capitalism. Such an argument can be used for stating that Taiwan’s traditional music has changed due to the factors in politics, economics, technology, society, regional power and international relationship as the era changes. Also, a very common phenomenon of cultural dispersion in the contemporary age has been reviewed. By means of the three cultural development theories “Chinese Localization”, “ Localization ”, and “Ethnic Boundary Research” that have different viewpoints, this study not only intends to discriminate the compound relationships among music, countries and multiculturalism, but also intends to give detailed explanations of the experiences of cultural disapora and the construction of cultural identify. The modernization development of Taiwan’s Han Traditional Music can reflect our life, while our life has contributed to such a music culture as well as human groups’ vibrant vitality for hundreds of years.

No description available.

本研究以中國2007年至2012年的A股上市公司為研究對象，探討管理當局能力與分析師盈餘預測行為的關係，預測行為迴歸模型以分析師追蹤人數、分析師盈餘預測準確性及預測離散程度三種特性進行分析。 研究結果發現，管理當局能力與分析師追蹤人數、盈餘預測精確度皆呈現顯著正相關，與預測離散程度則為負相關，但并不顯著。這表示經理人能力較好，則分析師對該公司之追蹤意願較高，且盈餘預測誤差與預測離散度較低。本研究藉此結果推論，管理當局能力愈佳之企業，經理人愈會提供品質良好、具可靠性的財務報導，故分析師將愈信賴該公司所提供之資訊，並可幫助分析師做出更精確之盈餘預測，並降低彼此間之預測誤差。 / This study examines the relation between managerial ability and financial analysts’ earnings forecast behaviors in China from 2007 to 2012. We use several analysts’ attributes: number of analysts following, forecasts error, and forecasts dispersion. According to the empirical results, in general, analysts tend to follow firms with more ability of managers, and managers with superior ability might decrease analysts’ forecast errors and the dispersion of analysts’ earnings forecasts.

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(A)(1) 課題番号:11304004 研究代表者:三井 斌友 研究期間:1999-2001年度

本研究檢測審計品質與經理人能力對於分析師盈餘預測行為之相對有用性。根據Compustat 及 I/B/E/S所蒐集之1996至2011年資料，本研究發現，相對於非四大會計師事務所或非產業專家，當公司被四大會計師事務所或產業專家查核時，分析師預測之準確度較高，且離散度較小。此外，本研究發現當公司經理人能力較高時，分析師預測之準確度亦愈高，而離散度亦愈小。最後，為探討沙賓法案對分析師預測行為之影響，本研究將樣本區分為沙賓法案前及沙賓法案後兩組。實證結果顯示，相對於沙賓法案前，在沙賓法案後，分析師較重視審計品質與經理人能力。整體而言，審計品質與經理人能力皆會為分析師的盈餘預測帶來正面影響，而經理人能力之影響較為顯著。 / This study examines the relative usefulness of audit quality and managerial ability on financial analysts’ earnings forecast behavior. Based on data collected from Compustat and I/B/E/S from 1996 to 2011, the empirical results show that analysts' earnings forecast accuracy is higher and dispersion is smaller when firms are audited by a Big 4 auditor or an industry specialist. Similarly, analysts' earnings forecast accuracy is also higher and dispersion is also smaller when firms employ more capable managers. To investigate whether SOX affects analysts’ behavior, sample is divided into pre-SOX and post-SOX groups. The regression results from both groups show that analysts take audit quality and managerial ability into their earnings forecasts after SOX. Overall, the results suggest that both audit quality and managerial ability are associated with analysts’ earnings forecast properties. Importantly, the effect of managerial ability appears to be larger than the effect of audit quality.

財務危機模型的研究一般納入財務正常公司與財務危機公司兩者當樣本，探討區分危機與正常公司的因素，本研究則進一步以財務危機公司為樣本，探討在財務危機公司中區分舞弊公司與正常經營公司的基本因素。 本研究從財務危機公司中，分出財務舞弊公司與正常經營公司，因此研究樣本包含發生舞弊的財務危機公司與正常經營而發生財務危機的公司。研究變數則從文獻篩選23個財務解釋變數，以及13個公司治理解釋變數，運用羅吉斯迴歸法進行實證，結果顯示3個財務變數和1個公司治理變數在區分財務危機公司中的財務舞弊公司與正常經營公司有顯著的區別能力，公司治理變數的董監事持股比率尤其顯著。 / Financial distress prediction is usually based on both financial distressed firms and non-distressed firms. Based on financial distressed firms, this study further investigates the factors distinguishing financial fraud firms from non-fraud firms. The sample includes fraud and no-fraud firms while both are financial distressed. Twenty-three financial and thirteen corporate governance variables are surveyed from literature. The empirical result of logit regression shows that three financial variables and one corporate governance variable are significant factors in distinguishing fraud from no-fraud firms in distressed companies. Especially, the percentage of holding stocks of board of directors is the most significant variable.

近年來，有關文學和殖民宰制之間關係的研究一直是文學研究中重要的一個主題。在我論文的序章，阿圖塞有關意識形態的看法就被拿來詮釋這層共謀的關係。身為文學作品中一份子，蜜雪兒•克莉芙的作品《天堂無路可通》卻藉著呈現後殖民情境下的克蕾兒•薩維巨和她家人的故事試著去翻轉和顛覆主導的意識形態。我就針對變易位置、歷史書寫、身份認同三個糾結在整個故事中的重要主題加以討論。 我的論文的第二章是對後殖民漂泊離散的現象和與這現象相關的放逐和移民的概念加以詳細的說明。在這部分中，柯恩關於文化上飄泊離散的四個標準，用來衡量在《天堂無路可通》中薩維巨一家人的移民狀況是很有幫助的。此外，對於「家」這個概念的政治考量也納入這部分的討論中。克蕾兒遊蕩的旅程引導她去思索在她周圍所圍繞的一些問題：其中之一便是對於「歷史」可信度的疑惑，另一個則是對於自己身份認同探究。因此，在第三章中，我探討的是再現的機制和歷史書寫再現的是宰制意識形態。在《天堂無路可通》中，克蕾兒的個人記憶/個人歷史於是成為了對官方歷史可靠性詰問的對抗力量，也提供了另一版本的歷史。 交織在漂泊離散經驗和對歷史和記憶質疑之中的課題是關於身份的認同，特別是文化上的認同。在我的論文的第四章，我所討論的是身份認同形成的過程和文化認同的轉變。在這章中，首先，以「旅行」的概念來解釋克蕾兒的游牧式旅程。接下來，我陳述有關於本質主義者和非本質主義者個自對於身份認同的看法和他們之間對於這個議題的爭論。而他們之間對於身份認同的不同看法正好明白地昭示在霍爾對於文化身份認同的定義中。此外，巴霸創新的「第三空間」和「居中」的想法也納入這部分關於身份認同的討論中。如何去面對由於移民、放逐和飄泊離散所產生的文化認同危機，如何去調合和重建一個新的文化上的身份認同，和如何以這個新的身份認同去詮釋故事中克蕾兒的回歸牙買加是我最後一部分的討論。希望，經由我對《天堂無路可通》這本小說的研究，能提供一些對了解後殖民小說的見解，特別是本於/有關/來自加勒比海的小說。 / The discussion of the relationship between literature and the colonial manipulation has been an important theme in the study of literature in recent years. In the introduction of my thesis, Louis Althusser’s concept of ideology is utilized to interpret this complicity relationship. As a literary work, Michelle Cliff’s No Telephone to Heaven tries to reverse and subvert the dominant ideology by presenting the story of Clare Savage and her family under postcolonial condition. My discussions are aimed at three important themes, displacement, history, and identity, interwoven in the whole story. The second chapter of my thesis is the elucidation of the postcolonial phenomenon, the diaspora experiences, and the relative concepts of exile and migration. In this part, Robin Cohen’s four criteria of cultural diaspora are useful to assess the immigrant condition of the Savages in No Telephone to Heaven. Moreover, the politics of “home” is associated within this part of discussion. What Clare’s wandering journey leads her to is the contemplation of the questions arising around her: of these questions, one is the suspicion of the reliability of “history,” and another is the inquiry about her own identity/identities. So, in the third chapter, I discuss the regime of representation and the historiography as a kind of representation of the dominant ideology. The personal memory/history of Clare in No Telephone to Heaven, then, becomes a counter-force to interrogate the reliability of the official history, and provides another version of history. Interweaving with the diaspora experiences and the interrogation of history and memory is the topic about identities, particularly the cultural identity. In the fourth chapter of my thesis, I discuss the process of identity formation and the transformation of cultural identity. In this chapter, first, Clare’s nomadic journey is explained by the concept of “travel.” Then, I state the thoughts about identity between the essentialists and non-essentialists and the debates of identity between them. Such different views of identity are prominently demonstrated in Stuart Hall’s definition of cultural identity. Besides, Homi Bhabha’s innovative idea of “the third space” and the concept of “in-between” are included in this part of discussion about identity. How to face the crisis of cultural identity out of migration, exile, and diaspora, how to negotiate or reconstruct a new cultural identity under postcolonial condition, and how to interpret Clare’s return to Jamaica by virtue of this new identity, are the last parts of my discussion. I hope, through my reading of No Telephone to Heaven, I might provide some insights for understanding the postcolonial novels, especially the novels of/about/from the Caribbean area.

本論文主要是在探討薩曼、魯西迪在東，西小說中如何運用以第三空間為策略在二元對立的世界中找到出口。由於魯西迪漂泊離散的身分，他選擇將自己置於曖昧矛盾的第三空間中以避免被挾制於特定論述或意識形態中。因此魯西迪藉由能夠模糊政治、語言、以及文學方面界線的第三空間為策略，來顯示他如何以曖昧矛盾的處世態度在二元對立的世界中取得自身的主導權。 本論文將會分為三個部分(包括漂泊離散空間、語言第三空間、文學第三空間)來探討魯西迪如何在此小說中使用三種不同的第三空間，以達到抵抗文化身分、標準英語、以及文學經典等霸權。首先，論文第二章最主要在介紹漂泊離散的空間；在此空間中，漂泊離散者能夠依舊保有他們曖昧矛盾的獨立身分並免於被收編或同化於特定的身分中，並且藉此擁有能夠重新定義自己身份的權利與自由。第二，在第三章中魯西迪利用語言中第三空間的觀點來質疑傳統文化翻譯以及標準英語的純正性，為長久以來被曲解、壓抑的東方文化取得發聲的機會；讀者也可藉由文本中語言的挪用來了解認識異文化。最後，於第四章中，我將藉由巴赫汀所闡述存於小說中的新空間和後設小說的戲謔諧擬來分析魯西迪如何創造一個文學第三空間，揭櫫寫作人為的本質；並將社會時事與文學批判結合於小說文類中。總結來說，此三種不同的第三空間不僅反應出魯西迪拒絕選擇而將自身置於矛盾曖昧中的空間中，同時也為二元對立的世界中注入新動力。 / The aim of the thesis is to scrutinize how Salman Rushdie finds an outlet in the dichotomous world by means of the third space in East, West. Due to his diasporic identity, Rushdie decides to stay in an ambivalent space, avoiding being confined in specific ideology or discourse. As a result, using the strategy of the third space, which blurs political, linguistic, and literary boundaries, Rushdie shows how he earns agency in the dichotomous world. This thesis deals with three kinds of third space: diaspora space, linguistic space, and literary space. Each chapter unfolds how Rushdie uses the strategy of the third space to resist hegemonic discourse on human identity, the Standard English, and literary canons. Chapter II begins with an introduction of the diaspora space, by which diasporans are able to maintain their unique identities without being co-opted into a specific subject position. In Chapter III, both traditional cultural translation and the Standard English are questioned in terms of the linguistic third space. By means of the linguistic space, Rushdie challenges the monolithic cultural representation and pureness of the Standard English. The space also helps the distorted and misrecognized eastern culture articulate by appropriation of English. In Chapter IV, I will take metafictional parody and Bakhtin’s new zone of the novel to analyze how Rushdie creates a literary third space to lay bare the fabricated nature of writing and at the same time to combine social and literary critiques within the novel. To sum up, the three types of the third space in East, West not only reflect Rushdie’s refusal to taking sides but also bring dynamics to the dichotomous world.

1999年新巴塞爾協定規定鼓勵銀行採用內部信用評等法(internal ratings based approach)，以衡量貸款者無法償還之風險以計提最低資本。為因應此一授信風險控管之需要，銀行亟需建立一套有效之財務危機預警系統，以判定銀行授信客戶發生財務危機之機率。 本研究運用羅吉斯迴歸分析(logistic regression analysis)與離散時間涉險分析(discrete-time survival analysis)分法於三種相互具有巢狀式關連性之財務危機預測模型，逐步加入財務、非財務及公司治理變數，以便在同一種分析方法下比較三種模型，以及在同一種模型下比較兩種分析方法。實證結果顯示，就樣本期間內而言，同一種分析方法下模型之財務危機預測能力，隨著不同種類解釋變數之加入而逐步提高。然而，就樣本期間外而言，同一種分析方法下模型之財務危機預測能力，並未隨著不同種類解釋變數之加入而逐步提高，但分類能力皆十分優良；而在同一種模型下離散時間涉險分析方法之整體分類能力皆高於羅吉斯迴歸分析方法。 / The 1999 Basel II Accord suggests banks measure the impossibility of reimbursement of debtors to calculate capital minimums by internal ratings-based approach. To reduce the credit risk, it is important that banks construct accurate financial distress prediction systems to determine the probability of financial distress of debtors. This study employs logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analysis to construct nested models to which the financial, non-financial, and corporate governance corporate variables are added step by step. I therefore make comparison of the performance of three models under logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analysis, respectively. Meanwhile, the comparison of the performance of logistic regression and discrete-time hazard analyses under each of three models is also made. The empirical results show that the in-sample predictive ability of financial distress is enhanced by gradually incorporating different kinds of variables in both analyses. Although the out-of-the-sample predictive ability of financial distress is not improved by gradually incorporating different kinds of variables in one analysis, the model performance is quite well overall. The entire discriminability of discrete-time hazard analysis is better than logistic regression under each model.