羅興亞穆斯林(Rohingya Muslim)或稱阿拉干穆斯林(Arakanese Muslim)，是居住在鄰近孟加拉的緬甸若開邦北部 (或稱阿拉干Arakan)穆斯林社群，大批印度穆斯林在二十世紀初殖民時期遷徙至阿拉干地區，形成新(印度)、舊(阿拉干)穆斯林混居，也導致羅興亞人之身分多有爭議。 因經濟資源壟斷、政治力量競爭及宗教文化衝突等原因，緬甸在1930年及1938年分別爆發反印度及反穆斯林暴動。而阿拉干穆斯林發起將阿拉干地區併入東巴基斯坦（即孟加拉）的政治行動未果後，除了以聖戰軍(Mujahideen)與緬甸政府對抗，並尋求設立自治區外，自1960年代發展以標榜阿拉干原住民的「羅興亞」認同，爭取內部凝聚及外部支持。 在宇努政府(U Nu)主政下，羅興亞人尚能以公民身份獲得參政權，而尼溫軍政府1978年發動清查非法入境者的龍王行動(Nagamin)及1982年實施新公民法後，羅興亞人公民權被徹底剝奪，並被迫在1978、1991-92、2012、2015及2016年間經歷數波難民離散，遷徙至孟加拉、馬來西亞及泰國等國。 「阿拉干羅興亞難民委員會」( RARC)是難民自身所建立的難民社群組織(RCOs)，不僅為羅興亞社群發聲，亦與聯合國難民署(UNHCR) 及非政府組織(NGOs)等單位合作，發展其社群力量。而在馬來西亞政府默許及容忍下，羅興亞難民獲得安全棲身之所，除可透過通婚取得永久居留外，在開放羅興亞難民工作許可等政策開放下，羅興亞難民在地融合及生活發展。 本文以滯留馬來西亞安邦的緬甸羅興亞難民社群為主研究對象，探討羅興亞溯源、緬甸佛教徒與穆斯林之宗教衝突、羅興亞離散、及難民社群組織發展。 / Rohingya Muslim (or Arakanese Muslim) have been residing in Northen Rakhine (or Arakan) in Burma/Myanmarfor centuries , with the mass inflow of Indians during British Colonial Period into Burma, Muslim population grew up and it resulted in competition,then ethnic tension simmered between Indians and Burmeses. The conflicts between Buddhist and Muslim bursted between 1930 and 1938 , and fail of integration of Arakan with East Pakistan (Bangladesh ) triggered Arakanese Muslim’s militant autonomy operation and the Arakanese Muslim created the “Rohingya” ethnic identity movement in the 1960s. The cleaning of illegal immigrant operation “ Nagamin ” in1978 , implementation of new Citizen Law in 1982, and religious and ecthnic conflict had resulted Rohingya in exile in 1978 ,1991-2, 2013, 2015 and 2016 , therefore Rohingya migrated to Bangladesh , Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. With the help of UNHCR and Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs) ,the Refugee Community Organizations(RCOs) such as Rohingya Arakanese Refugee Committee (RARC) not only play the role as intermediator between community and NGOs , but also lobbied the Malaysia government. This dissertation focuses on the Burmese Rohingya communities in Ampang Malaysia and the origin of Rohingya, the ethnic and religious conflicts between Buddhists and Muslims , the Rohingya Diaspora and development of RCOs.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第22411号 / 工博第4672号 / 新制||工||1729(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科電気工学専攻 / (主査)教授 萩原 朋道, 教授 土居 伸二, 教授 松尾 哲司 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

本文主要討論各種分配函數之間所存在的關聯性。分為六章摘要如下: 第一章: 緒論, 介紹本文研究之動機、目的、方法以及所遭遇之研究限制等事項。 第二章: 由皮爾生分配體系之觀點, 討論各種分配函數間的關係, 共分二節。 第三章: 討論各種離散分配間之關係, 共分六節。 第四章: 討論各種連續分配間之關係, 共分九節。 第五章: 討論各種抽樣分配間之關係, 共分七節。 第六章: 結論, 對前四章之結果作一總結, 並略述其應用。

本研究將財務危機分為『經營不善型財務危機』以及『舞弊型財務危機』兩種類型，運用離散時間涉險方法，探討何種公司治理與財務資訊最有可能發生舞弊型的財務危機。同時本研究也探討財務危機對負債比率的敏感性如何受到公司治理中介變數的影響。 實證結果發現當公司治理機制情形不好，但財務報表資訊良好時，發生舞弊型財務危機的可能性將大於經營不善型的財務危機。而財務危機對負債比率的敏感度會受到公司治理中介變數的影響。 / With financial distress being classified as operating-failure financial distress and fraud financial distress, this study employs discrete-time survival model to characterize the fraud financial distress by corporate governance and financial performance. It also investigates the moderate effect of corporate governance on the sensitivity of financial distress to debt ratio. The empirical results indicate that companies with weak corporate governance and good financial performance are more likely to encounter fraud financial distress than operating-failure financial distress. In addition, corporate governance positively moderates the sensitivity of financial distress to debt ratio.

本論文考察晚清以降，面對廿世紀的新舊交替，殖民與西學衝擊，在中國南方、台灣與南洋的詩人群體的離散際遇。從他們寫於境外的漢詩創作，探究一個政治／文化遺民的精神處境及漢詩文類的越界與現代性脈絡。漢詩有著源遠流長的傳統，做為士人文化心靈的寄託與投射，漢詩因此成爲一代流亡知識分子銘刻歷史嬗變，見證家國離散的重要媒介。尤其經歷乙未、辛亥兩次政治鉅變，士紳百姓大規模遷徙，文化與文學的播遷軌跡因此日益繁複，漢詩由此構成理解與辯證現代性的種種可能的文學形式與生產空間。本論文處理的時間跨度，始於一八九五年的乙未割台事件，結束在日軍投降、二戰結束的一九四五年。前者從近代中國第一批遺民的誕生展開論述，後者以南來作家郁達夫的失蹤死亡，做為流寓詩學一個曖昧的結束或再生產。 士人在一八九五年以降面臨的時代鉅變，產生了悲憤憂患的國族書寫、現代的時間與地理感受，造就晚清曖昧的政治或文化遺民，並連同中原境內與境外的知識份子，捲入了一種離散現代性的體驗。他們透過文學試圖描述與定位自身的遷徙，卻必須面對時代的變化與衝擊，同時回望、召喚難以斷絕的傳統。這是一個區域漢文學交流與互動的歷史時刻，一個以漢詩為主導文類的文學現場。我們從離散敘事的論述框架，重新觀察了漢詩作為跟隨傳統文化一同陷落的舊文體，如何在地理遷徙的現代時空內，重新架構了詩人經歷的主體飄零、肉身苦難、絕域風土和文教播遷的種種經驗。 這些文人分別在不同區域之間流動，從中國到台灣，從台灣內渡中國，再從中國奔往南洋，三個區域的互涉，凸顯出清末民初的文化遺民型態各異，但又共同處身一個裂變下的帝國解體與現代體驗。無論他們生根中國、台灣，或流寓、移居南洋，文人遊走區域之間，表現出不同的文化想像與文學生產。 本論文選取的四組詩人個案，包括乙未割台時期內渡大陸，後往南洋推展儒教的丘逢甲、在殖民地台灣以遺民自居的王松和洪棄生，流亡南洋的康有為及移居者丘菽園，客死南洋的許南英和郁達夫。這些不同脈絡背景的詩人個案，都同時聚集在一個境外離散式的寫作氛圍。他們的歷史機遇由晚清跨度到民國，不同的主體與客觀經驗，展現了形塑流亡詩學和南方視域的可能。漢詩在海外的不絕如縷，尤其見證一代知識分子或花果飄零，或靈根自植的心路歷程。這些寫在境外的漢詩橫跨新舊文學的分野，在同一傳統／現代交替的歷史結構裡出沒，一再説明漢詩歷久而彌「新」的現代意義。其中內蘊的文類意識，提醒了我們進一步理解漢詩播遷所塑造的區域文學型態，同時藉由這些遺落在海外的詩人足跡，形成地域觀照的「文學現場」脈絡。 / The present study investigates Chinese diaspora in terms of a particular group of loyalist poets scattering in South China, Taiwan, and Nanyang in late Qing, including Qiu Fengjia, Wang Song, Hong Qisheng, Kang Youwei, Qiu Shuyuan, Xu Nanying and Yu Dafu and discusses transcendence and modernity of their Han poetry. This study deals with the time span from territorial cession of Taiwan in 1895 to Japanese surrender /the end of war in 1945. The discussion starts with the emergence of the first group of loyalists in late Qing in 1895 and closes with Yu Dafu’s missing in Sumatra in 1945. During this period of time, social upheaval due to the transition to a new era and the impact from colonization in Taiwan and westernization in China forced common people as well as intellectuals massively migrated and emigrated. For example, Qiu Fengjia exiled from Taiwan to China during the Japanese colonization and later went to Nanyang. Kang Youwei, Qiu Shuyuan, Xu Nangying and Yu Dafu exiled or moved to Nanyang and the later two even died there. Poets in Taiwan, like Wang Song and Hong Qisheng, considered themselves as emigrants from China. Being deserted and colonized, these poets threw themselves into loyalist writing, intending to construct identity in terms of space and time. Drawing upon such loyalists’ works of Han poetry, this study attempts to sketch out those poets’ mental state as political/ cultural loyalists and the way their Han poetry displayed transcendence and modernity. Having an established tradition as the genre to represent the spirits, morals and emotions of intellectuals, Han poetry was naturally chosen by intellectuals to use when they endeavored to depict historical changes and the collapse of a dynasty. Han poetry thus in turn manifested itself as an epitome of diaspora and the loyalists’ state of mind during that period of time. In addition, after Yiwei and Xinhai political upheavals, the emigration formed intriguing paths of disseminating culture and literature. In this context, Han poetry turned out to serve as an important literary form and space, by which we are able to interpret and discuss modernity.

本文以1999年至2006年間台灣改名公司為樣本(控制組)，並以與改名公司相同產業、相同規模之非改名公司作配對樣本(對照組)，透過兩者之比較以探討企業更名前後分析師行為之差異。本研究旨在檢驗改名事件日之前後60天(樣本期間為120天)，分析師之盈餘預測、盈餘成長率預測及盈餘預測離散性之差異，另外也會對改名前後之分析師人數變動作檢測。為了探討樣本期間拉長而樣本數增加是否會影響檢測之情形，額外於第五章之敏感性分析作改名前後90天(樣本期間為180天)，改名對於分析師行為影響之研究。另外，為比較不同類型的改名方式或條件不同的改名公司其改名事件對於分析師行為之影響，本文將改名的樣本公司依不同標準分成以下三類：第一種分類以新名稱是否有當紅產業字眼的變化作區分，第二種分類依新舊名稱之改變是否明顯且易於分辨而作大改名與小改名之區分，第三種分類方式則依新名稱是否與公司本業相符合作區分。 研究結果發現，不論樣本期間為120天或180天，實證結果皆顯示，相對於非改名公司，分析師會向上修正改名公司之盈餘預測及盈餘成長率預測，惟120天之結果較180天更為顯著，推測可能原因為樣本期間拉長後，干擾預測變動的因素相對增加而使改名之影響減低。樣本期間120天之實證結果也顯示，若新名稱有當紅產業字眼者，則對事件日後分析師盈餘預測及盈餘成長率預測也有正向關係；屬於大改名者則對事件日後分析師盈餘預測有正向關係 / This paper investigates the impact of corporate name changes on analysts’ behavior around the time of their announcement by analyzing listed Taiwanese companies that changed their name over the period January 1999 to December 2006. To make further investigations, we conduct separate analysis of firms having certain popular industry related new names versus non-popular industry related new names; of firms having ‘major’ versus ‘minor’ name changes; of firms having good versus poor connection between business and new names. Generally, we find some evidence of a significant positive association between the corporate name change event and the change of analysts’ behavior. The empirical results show that in contrast to non name change firms, analysts will revise up EPS and EPS growth forecast for name change firms. The results also suggest that analysts tend to revise up EPS and EPS growth forecast for firms having certain popular industry related new names. Furthermore, we also find a positive association between major name changes and analysts’ EPS forecast.

本研究延續Shumway (2001) 從存活分析(Survival Analysis)觀點切入，利用離散型風險模型(Discrete-time Hazard Model)──亦即Shumway 所稱之多期邏輯斯迴歸模型(Multi-period Logistic Regression Model)，建立企業財務危機預警模型。研究選取1986 年至2008 年間718 家上市公司，其中110 家發生財務危機事件，共計6,782 公司/年資料 (firm-year)。有別於Shumway 提出的Log 基期風險型式，本文根據事件發生率圖提出Quadratic 基期風險型式，接著利用4組（或基於會計測量，或基於市場測量）時間相依共變量 (Time-dependent Covariate)建立2 組離散型風險模型(Log 與Quadratic)，並與傳統僅考量單期資料的邏輯斯迴歸模型比較。實證結果顯示，離散型風險模型的解釋變數與破產機率皆符合預期關係，而傳統邏輯斯迴歸模型則有時會出現不符合預期關係的情況；研究亦顯示離散型風險模型預測能力絕大多數情況下優於傳統邏輯斯迴歸模型，在所有模型組合中，以Quadratic 基期風險型式搭配財務變數、市場變數的解釋變數組合而成的離散型風險模型，擁有最佳預測能力。 / Based on the viewpoint of survival analysis from Shumway (2001), the presentthesis utilizes discrete-time hazard model, also called multi-period logistic regression model, to forecast corporate financial distress. From 1986 to 2008, this research chooses 718 listed companies within, which includes 110 failures, as the subjects, summing to 6,782 firm-year data. Being different from Shumway’s log baseline hazard form,we proposed to use quadratic baseline hazard form according to empirical evidence. Then, four groups of time-dependent covariates, which are accounting-based measure or market-based measure, are applied to build two sets of discrete-time hazard model, which is compared with the single-period logistic regression model. The results show that there exists the expected relationship between covariates and predict probability in discrete-time hazard model, while there sometimes lacks it in single-period logistic regression model. The results also show that discrete-time hazard model has better predictive capability than single-period logistic regression model. The model, which combines quadratic baseline hazard form with market and accounting variables, has the best predictive capability among all models.

連續時間計量方法在國外已廣泛被使用於經濟理論的實證上，而國內相關的研究猶付之如闕。本文首先簡述連續時聞計量方法的緣起及其優點；接著介紹其研究方法；最後以此法對耐久財需求、非自願儲蓄及匯率的決定三個主題進行研究。 　　本文第四章透過消費者耐久財的需求發現，以RMSE為準則時，連續模型所賦予的結構訊息是否優於離散模型，須視經濟現象本身的性質而定。 　　有關第五章台灣地區非自願儲蓄之研究，其結論可歸納為：即使考慮不同預期行為，Deaton (1977) 所宣稱的非自願儲蓄效果仍不顯著。但隨著產品行銷管道日漸流通等因素，此一效果亦值得有關當局注意。 　　第六章中筆者修改Frankel & Rodrignez (1982) 之模型，並利用逼近法進行估計。在完全預期的假設下，可以發現模型配適的匯率波動幅度遠大於實際匯率走向。而考慮政府干預後，模型配適情況良好。最後，就樣本後預測準則而言，本章所考慮之模型皆優於VARX(1,2)。

本文主要目的，在建立一個現金限制(CIA)的兩部門貨幣成長模型。在模 型裡，不同財貨間的邊際技術的轉換率是內生決定的。完全預期的通貨膨 脹會改變財貨間的相對價格，因其受制於現金限制式不同，因此通貨膨脹 經由此管道，在不同的兩部門生產要素移轉的投入，會致使資本累積改變 。

諾貝爾文學獎得主奈波爾(V. S. Naipaul)可以說是當代文學中最具爭議性及最難以捉摸的一位作家，因為他對自己祖國千里達的前殖民國英國懷有一種好惡相參的矛盾態度。奈波爾的自傳性小說《抵達之謎》，故事橫跨三十年，描述一位曾被殖民的離散敘事者其人生旅程。旅程始自敘事者還是一個得到牛津大學獎學金的十八歲學生，終至敘事者成為在英國有立足之處的作家，其間歷經迷惘、錯置、覺醒、安頓等過程。在後殖民批評及文學的「信條」下，奈波爾的作品理應對大英帝國表示出一種明確的對抗態度，但其作品卻幾乎未能達到此一預期，而這也使得他必須承受遭指控為背叛者的衝擊。批評家普遍將奈波爾稱為英國的喉舌，而本論文旨在提供一個有別於此的觀點。本論文想要處理的關鍵問題如下：奈波爾是否真的是大英帝國的擁護者？如果不是的話，他如何與英國性(Englishness)協商以換取發言位置？ 論文首章對奈波爾及《抵達之謎》的批評做簡短的回顧。第二章以法農(Frantz Fanon)的觀點來檢視敘事者與白人女性角色的關係，以說明敘事者從崇拜英國文化到擺脫對英國謬誤幻想的發展。筆者也嘗試描繪出敘事者成為一個作家的軌跡。藉此，筆者認為敘事者經歷一段從目光狹隘的英國經典作家模仿者，到寫自己人生故事的作家的歷程。在第三章，本文認為在倫敦及英國鄉間的停留期間，敘事者看出帝國中心的破敗以及英國文化核心中英國性的矯揉造作。第四章首先就「離散」這個概念做一回顧，並說明奈波爾及《抵達之謎》如何能置於這樣的概念之下來解讀。筆者指出，敘事者同時身為離散者及流亡者的身份，使得他能夠取得一個「對位」的觀點，而此觀點幫助敘事者發展其後殖民牧歌，揭發英國性背後的殘酷。第五章揭示筆者對現存奈波爾批評中潛在缺陷的根本關懷。本論文希望藉由提供非主流但具建設性的觀點來補足現存的奈波爾批評。 / A Nobel laureate in literature, V. S. Naipaul is arguably the most controversial and elusive writer in contemporary literature because his signature is his ambivalence on England, a country which once colonized his mother country Trinidad. Spanning thirty years, The Enigma of Arrival, Naipaul’s autobiographical novel, delineates an ex-colonial and diasporic narrator’s life journey—from an eighteen-year-old schoolboy granted a scholarship to Oxford University to a writer gaining a foothold in England—of disorientation, dislocation, awakening and anchorage. Under the “doctrine” of postcolonial criticism and literature, Naipaul’s works are expected to express an explicit and confrontational attitude towards the British Empire, but his works hardly come to terms with such expectation, which makes him bear the brunt of the accusation of being an apostate. This thesis aims at providing a different viewpoint from criticism in general which labels Naipaul as the mouthpiece of England. The pivotal issues this thesis intends to tackle are as follows: Is Naipaul really an exponent of the British Empire to the core? If not, how does he negotiate with Englishness for a position of enunciation? The opening chapter offers a brief review of criticism about Naipaul and The Enigma of Arrival. In Chapter II, I examine the narrator’s relationship with white female characters in the light of Fanon’s perspective, trying to illustrate the progression in which the narrator at first worships the English culture but at last sheds his false fantasy. I also try to chart the trajectory of the narrator’s becoming a writer. By doing so, I intend to argue that the narrator undergoes a course from a blinkered colonial emulating English canonical writers to a writer writing his own life story. In Chapter III, I argue that during his stay in London and the English countryside, the narrator discerns the dilapidation of the imperial center and the artificiality of Englishness in the heart of English culture. Chapter IV begins with a review of the concept “diaspora” and how Naipaul and The Enigma of Arrival could be situated in this concept. I point out that the narrator’s identity as a diasporan and an exile enables him to obtain a “contrapuntal” perspective that contributes to the narrator’s postcolonial pastoral which exposes the cruelty behind Englishness. The concluding chapter reveals my ultimate concern about the latent flaw in the established Naipaul criticism, unfolding my intention to make this thesis complement the Naipaul criticism by contributing an alternative yet constructive perspective.